Group 1: Market Overview - Global risk appetite has significantly declined, leading to a synchronized drop in equity and commodity markets, with major stock indices experiencing widespread pullbacks, particularly in the technology sector [2][39] - The MSCI Global Index fell by 2.5%, with developed markets showing a pattern where frontier markets declined less than developed and emerging markets [4][40] - The VIX index and MOVE 5-day moving average have risen sharply, indicating increased market volatility [2][39] Group 2: Fixed Income - The credit bond market has seen a cooling in trading sentiment, with institutions adopting a more conservative approach, favoring short-term bonds over long-duration ones [2][10] - The yield curve for Chinese bonds has shifted upward, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, while U.S. bonds have shown a "bull steepening" trend with a downward shift in yields [5][41] Group 3: Commodity and Currency - Commodity indices such as South China and CRB have declined by 1.8% and 2.2% respectively, with only three out of thirteen major commodity futures recording price increases [6][42] - The U.S. dollar index has risen by 0.9%, surpassing 100, while the Japanese yen has depreciated by 1.2%, approaching the 160 mark against the dollar [6][42] Group 4: Steel Industry - The apparent demand for steel from the five major steel mills increased by 3.9% week-on-week, while production decreased by 1.9% [18][21] - The profitability of steel companies has declined, with the average gross profit per ton of rebar dropping by 20 yuan to 61 yuan [19][20] - The steel industry is expected to stabilize in demand, with supply contraction anticipated due to ongoing policies aimed at reducing production [21][22] Group 5: Construction Industry - The activation of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway project has been announced, which is expected to significantly enhance freight capacity and reduce transportation time [23][24] - The Chinese government is focusing on urban renewal initiatives to stimulate investment and consumption, which may positively impact the construction sector [24] Group 6: Pharmaceutical Industry - The company under review, Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, has a focus on innovative traditional Chinese medicine, with a projected EPS growth from 0.69 to 0.97 yuan from 2025 to 2027 [30][31] - The company has faced revenue declines due to policy impacts, with a 6.75% year-on-year decrease in industrial revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [31][33] - Despite short-term challenges, the company has seen growth in cardiovascular products, indicating potential for recovery [31][33]

Core Insights - The city of Zouping in Shandong Province has rapidly transformed its economy and industrial structure, achieving significant milestones in industrial upgrading and innovation-driven development [1][17] - Zouping has been recognized as one of the top ten industrial counties in Shandong and is set to become a core area of the Jinan metropolitan area by 2024 [1][17] - The manufacturing sector in Zouping is undergoing a "three transformations" leap, focusing on digitalization, automation, and green development [2][5][17] Industrial Upgrading - Zouping's manufacturing industry has seen a production efficiency increase of over 38%, with labor requirements reduced by 80% compared to traditional models [2] - The Wei Qiao Textile Group has established a complete industrial chain in textiles, leveraging green and intelligent technologies to lead the industry [3][17] - The Shandong Innovation Group is a leader in the recycling of aluminum, implementing a full-process carbon footprint tracking system and collaborating with major automotive brands [6][17] - The Guangfu Group has launched the world's largest φ530 special steel pipe production line, expected to generate an annual output value of 5 billion yuan [7][17] Digital Transformation - Zouping's manufacturing enterprises are adopting digital and intelligent solutions to enhance efficiency, with automated systems in warehouses and production lines [4][17] - The integration of advanced technologies in production processes is enabling Zouping to transition from traditional manufacturing to high-end, green, and clustered production [7][17] Rural and Urban Integration - Zouping is exploring rural-urban integration through the development of unique local industries, such as traditional crafts and eco-tourism, to enhance economic collaboration [9][10][17] - The city is fostering new business models that combine online and offline sales, significantly boosting local entrepreneurship and income [8][10] Social Welfare and Community Services - Zouping is enhancing its social services, particularly in elderly care, through a smart elderly care platform that provides personalized services [12][13][17] - The city has implemented a one-stop service center in its hospital, reducing patient wait times by 62% and improving overall healthcare accessibility [14][15][17] - Community initiatives, such as volunteer programs and local engagement activities, are strengthening social bonds and enhancing the quality of life for residents [16][17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "three-phase overlap" characterized by a mid-bull market consolidation period, a critical phase for verifying economic conditions, and a performance policy gap, leading to increased market volatility and year-end profit-taking by investors [1] Market Environment - Recent overseas disturbances have impacted the market, with fluctuating expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December affecting global liquidity [1] - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations, but its stock experienced significant volatility due to investor concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, which has also affected sentiment in the A-share market [1] Long-term and Short-term Strategies - Long-term factors supporting a slow bull market remain unchanged; however, short-term strategies should focus on opportunistic positioning [1] - Investors are advised to wait for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December before making significant moves [1] - If market adjustments are sufficient, there may be opportunities to increase positions, with attention to the support levels of the 60-day and half-year moving averages and market volume conditions [1] Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include banking, oil and petrochemicals, steel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, lithium batteries, and new materials [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-20 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a range - bound consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving down and weak operation, and the market is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the downstream being differentiated in the off - season and the price under pressure for adjustment. The market presents a structurally differentiated trend [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center of gravity moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3] Aluminum Alumina - The alumina market has a continuous supply - surplus pattern, the decline of spot prices has slowed but not stopped, and the industry profit is shrinking. Some high - cost enterprises in the Jin and Yu regions are facing losses, resulting in a 17,000 - ton week - on - week decrease in production. The total inventory has reached 4.793 million tons, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction [3] Aluminum Water and Downstream - The SMM weekly aluminum water ratio last week was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some sectors are in the transition from peak to off - season, and the aluminum price increase has put pressure on downstream processing fees, leading to production cuts in some processing enterprises [3] - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% last week. The SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry to show a differentiated trend in the short term, with grid orders supporting the slight recovery of aluminum cables, while aluminum sheets, strips, and foils are likely to decline due to environmental protection and the off - season [3] - On November 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 646,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday [3] Price Outlook - Macro factors have a mixed impact, and the market still expects a tightening of overseas supply. However, with the arrival of the off - season in China, the downstream is weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. The price is expected to have a short - term correction space [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and analysis of various commodities on November 18, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend and influencing factors [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have declined. The trend strength is neutral [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have also decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar has put pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international copper futures have fallen. The trend strength is neutral [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It has shown a slight decline. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have different trends. The trend strength is neutral [2][12]. - **Lead**: The significant increase in overseas inventories has put pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have decreased. The trend strength is slightly bearish [2][16]. - **Tin**: It has fallen from a high level. The prices of domestic and international tin futures have declined. The trend strength is slightly bearish [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: There is pressure above. The prices of domestic and international aluminum futures have decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][23]. - **Alumina**: It is in a range - bound shock. The price of domestic alumina futures has decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][23]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price has broken through the support level and is under pressure to fluctuate. The prices of domestic and international nickel futures have decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The weak reality suppresses the steel price, but there is limited downside. The price of domestic stainless - steel futures has increased slightly. The trend strength is neutral [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market sentiment is positive, and it is relatively strong in the short term. The prices of domestic carbonate lithium futures have increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is strong support at the bottom. The price of domestic industrial silicon futures has increased slightly. The trend strength is neutral [2][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the market information from the meeting. The price of domestic polysilicon futures has decreased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][36]. - **Iron Ore**: It is fluctuating repeatedly. The price of domestic iron ore futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][39]. - **Rebar**: It has rebounded from the previous over - decline and is in a strong shock. The price of domestic rebar futures has increased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It has rebounded from the previous over - decline and is in a strong shock. The price of domestic hot - rolled coil futures has increased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The main production areas continue to reduce production, and it is in a strong shock. The price of domestic silicon ferrosilicon futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Affected by the sector sentiment, it is in a strong shock. The price of domestic manganese silicide futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][49]. - **Coke**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of domestic coke futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][53]. - **Coking Coal**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of domestic coking coal futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][53]. Others - **Log**: It is fluctuating repeatedly. The price of domestic log futures has remained stable. The trend strength is neutral [2][55]. - **Rubber**: It is fluctuating. The price trend of domestic rubber futures is not clear. The report does not provide specific trend strength information [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is support during the shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Asphalt**: The factory inventory has decreased slightly, and it is in a narrow - range shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **LLDPE**: The agricultural demand may be approaching its peak, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **PP**: Do not chase short positions in the short term, and there is still pressure in the medium - term trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Pulp**: It is fluctuating. The price trend of domestic pulp futures is not clear. The report does not provide specific trend strength information [2]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak operation. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Urea**: There is support during the short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **LPG**: The downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Propylene**: The demand expectation has improved, and it is in a short - term strong shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Fuel Oil**: It maintains a weak shock and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has increased, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has continued to widen. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the opening guidance. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream fluctuation has increased, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Bottle Chip**: The upstream fluctuation has increased, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is in a low - level shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Pure Benzene**: The overseas blending oil market has started, and it is mainly in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term negative factors have been fully digested, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean price is stable, and soybean oil is in a strong shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is strong, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean**: It may follow the rebound of the soybean market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Corn**: It is fluctuating. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the trading volume of new sugar. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses the futures price. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Egg**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse - spread pattern. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Live Pig**: The expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed, and the pressure is gradually being released. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's hawkish remarks have dampened hopes of a December rate cut, leading to tightened global market liquidity and significant market declines on Friday. The future rate - cut path still has room for debate, and market volatility remains high [2][15]. - In October, most domestic economic indicators showed a slowdown in growth, which has affected various markets such as A - shares and the bond market [3][25]. - Different commodity markets have their own supply - demand and price trends. For example, in the copper market, short - term macro factors may limit copper prices, while fundamentals may turn into a supporting factor [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials continue to make hawkish remarks, and the market is pricing in a pause in rate cuts in December. The future rate - cut path still has room for debate with the release of economic data next week. The US stock market maintains a high - level oscillation [15]. - Investment advice: Due to high market volatility, it is recommended to observe more and act less, waiting for the market to choose a direction [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US adjusts agricultural product tariffs and reduces tariffs on Swiss products. Gold prices fell significantly on Friday, remaining in a short - term consolidation range. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Fed officials' hawkish statements have led to tightened global market liquidity, significant market declines on Friday, and the US dollar index is oscillating. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Three factors are disturbing the A - share market: increased domestic economic pressure, tense Sino - Japanese relations, and overseas companies' demand for supply - chain localization. The probability of a high - level adjustment in the market is increasing. - Investment advice: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indexes [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Economic data in October was generally weaker than expected. The bond market is in a narrow - range oscillation as it has already anticipated weak data, and there is a lack of new positive drivers. - Investment advice: It is recommended to approach the market with an oscillation mindset [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal was stable on November 14. The overall coal price is oscillating around 850 yuan. Supply is tight, and demand is at a seasonal high, so the price has strong support but is unlikely to break through 900 yuan. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to be strongly supported but difficult to break through 900 yuan [34]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Norwegian iron ore producer Rana Gruber plans to produce 67% high - grade iron ore by 2029. The iron ore market has weak demand, and the price is expected to oscillate. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain flat in the second half of November and decline slightly in December, maintaining an oscillating market [36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to test B50 biodiesel in December. The US is urged to finalize biofuel policies. Palm oil prices may be weak due to policy uncertainties, while soybean oil prices are expected to remain firm. - Investment advice: For palm oil, do not prematurely trade potential positive expectations. For soybean oil, wait for the result of US biofuel policies [40]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - In October, Brazilian sugar production data was higher than expected, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio is decreasing. The domestic sugar market is expected to have a strong start to the new season, but the upside is limited. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, and the 1 - 5 contract long - spread can be held [45]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The USDA November report is bearish for cotton, but the market has already priced it in. The domestic cotton market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA lowered the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season. US soybean crushing demand is strong, but the improvement in exports is uncertain. The domestic soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is in an oscillating state. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to China's actual purchases of US soybeans and South American production expectations [54]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In early November, the daily output of key steel enterprises increased. Steel prices are oscillating without a clear trend. The market needs more steel mill production cuts. - Investment advice: Approach steel prices with an oscillating mindset [60]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. The starch market has positive profits, and the inventory has slightly decreased. - Investment advice: The 01 futures price difference is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [62]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The selling progress of corn in Northeast and North China is relatively fast, but the actual supply - demand situation is still tight. The price is expected to be affected by selling pressure in the future. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and there may be opportunities to short at high prices after the situation becomes clear [64]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in Xinjiang is weakly stable. The futures price has declined, and the inventory has increased. - Investment advice: It is recommended to observe carefully until the harvesting is completed and pay attention to price negotiations and purchase progress in the production area [67]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Polish copper producer KGHM's Q3 net profit increased by 80%. Short - term macro factors may limit copper prices, while fundamentals may turn into a supporting factor. - Investment advice: It is recommended to buy on dips for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [71]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The first TOPCon + perovskite tandem solar cell was launched. The polysilicon spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price is expected to oscillate between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. - Investment advice: Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [74]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Organic silicon monomer manufacturers are jointly raising prices and considering production cuts. Industrial silicon prices are expected to have a clear lower limit, and it is recommended to buy on dips [77]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount. The supply side is in the early stage of repair, and the demand side is weak. There is a risk of low inventory in the long - term. - Investment advice: The industrial side can look for opportunities to short on rallies, and wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading [79]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Peruvian zinc concentrate production decreased in September. The LME zinc market has a risk of a short - squeeze, and the domestic zinc market is expected to enter a high - level oscillating adjustment stage. - Investment advice: Hold short positions in the short - term, look for long - spread opportunities in the medium - term, and pay attention to cross - border arbitrage opportunities [83]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The lithium price has risen recently, but short - term upward movement is limited. In the medium - term, demand may weaken. - Investment advice: Conduct range - trading in the short - term and look for opportunities to short on rallies in the medium - term [86]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia may restrict nickel smelting investment. The nickel market has weak fundamentals, and the price may continue to be weak in the short - term. - Investment advice: In the short - term, the price may continue to decline or rebound based on production cuts. In the medium - term, pay attention to Indonesia's policies [89]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is oscillating. The increase in heating demand in winter will support the carbon price. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term [92]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has increased, and the Russian Black Sea port was attacked, affecting oil exports. Geopolitical conflicts may support oil prices in the short - term. - Investment advice: Geopolitical conflicts may support oil prices in the short - term [95]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - International methanol production and capacity utilization have increased. The methanol price fell due to the decline in coking coal futures. The theoretical downward space is at least 100 yuan/ton. - Investment advice: The price is expected to reach 2000 yuan/ton [99]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories have increased export quotes. The market is in a seasonal off - season, and there is a risk of supply - demand deterioration in the future. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short the far - month processing margin and follow the movement of polyester raw material prices [102]. 3.2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - ONE has cooperated with Chinese ports to promote green shipping. The EC2602 contract's delivery date has been adjusted, and its valuation may be revised. - Investment advice: The 12 - 02 contract spread is expected to return to par or a slight premium [105].

特朗普在高调宣扬美国实力逼中国让步之际，人民币国际化正悄然迈出关键一步，而西芒杜铁矿的投产正在静悄悄改变着中美实力对比的底层逻辑。 "我们和中国关系很好，但那是因为他们知道我强硬。 "特朗普在最近接受美媒采访时，再次展现了他标志性的自信。 他骄傲地认为，中国之所以愿意在贸 易谈判中达成协议，完全是因为美国实力太强，中国不敢招惹美国。 就在特朗普吹嘘美国实力的同一天，国际航空运输协会宣布正式将人民币纳入其清算所结算货币体系。 这一决定看似与经济无关，却深刻影响着中美实力 对比的底层逻辑。 特朗普的自信言论很快遭到了事实的打脸。 就在他夸耀"中国怕美国"的同时，美国政府却悄悄撤销了多项对华限制措施。 特朗普在福克斯新闻的采访中详细阐述了他的逻辑：美国的强大实力体现在两个方面，一是关税手段，二是军事实力。 他声称，正是这两大支柱让中国不 得不妥协。 但现实情况却大相径庭。 截至11月9日，美国政府已经停摆40多天，公共服务陷入瘫痪，甚至驻外军人的工资都需要盟友垫付。 这种国内困境迫使特朗普急 需一个"外交突破口"来转移视线。 与特朗普的"口头强国"形成鲜明对比的是，中国正在扎实推进人民币国际化进程。 11月5日，国 ...