Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "three-phase overlap" characterized by a mid-bull market consolidation period, a critical phase for verifying economic conditions, and a performance policy gap, leading to increased market volatility and year-end profit-taking by investors [1] Market Environment - Recent overseas disturbances have impacted the market, with fluctuating expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December affecting global liquidity [1] - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations, but its stock experienced significant volatility due to investor concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, which has also affected sentiment in the A-share market [1] Long-term and Short-term Strategies - Long-term factors supporting a slow bull market remain unchanged; however, short-term strategies should focus on opportunistic positioning [1] - Investors are advised to wait for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December before making significant moves [1] - If market adjustments are sufficient, there may be opportunities to increase positions, with attention to the support levels of the 60-day and half-year moving averages and market volume conditions [1] Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include banking, oil and petrochemicals, steel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, lithium batteries, and new materials [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market continue to show a tight supply-demand balance, with total inventory declining for 13 consecutive weeks and the decline rate further expanding. The domestic production has continuously reached new highs, and the new production lines are ramping up to contribute to the increase. Currently, the price increase stimulates the production enthusiasm of manufacturers. However, the rapid consumption of spodumene raw material inventory limits the upside potential of production. The terminal market shows strong performance, and the optimistic demand expectation is difficult to be falsified. The orders in the power and energy storage markets are booming, and the production of lithium iron phosphate has repeatedly reached new highs, strongly supporting lithium carbonate. Currently, the market has strong expectations for energy storage, and related stocks have risen significantly. The market trading focuses on the demand side, and the impact of supply resumption is gradually weakening. In the short term, lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - In October 2025 in China, the new social financing was 810 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap at the end of October was 2.0 percentage points, wider than 1.2 percentage points in the previous month. The national industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (previous value: 6.5%), social retail consumption increased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: 3%), the national real estate development investment from January to October was - 14.7% (previous value: - 13.9%), and the urban fixed - asset investment increased by - 1.7% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.5%). The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown and starting a "long restart." Fed officials signaled a hawkish stance before the release of important economic data, reducing the probability of a rate cut in December, and risk assets adjusted collectively [3] Supply Side - This week, the lithium carbonate production continued to increase, with the weekly production remaining above 23,000 tons and reaching a new high for the year. The newly put - into - production capacity continued to ramp up, and the average industry operating rate rebounded to over 52%. In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% increase from the previous month, and 16,200 tons were exported to China [3] Demand Side - According to the data released by the Passenger Car Association, from November 1st to 9th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 265,000 units, a 5% decrease compared to the same period in November last year and a 16% increase compared to the same period in the previous month. The new - energy penetration rate was 64%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.415 million units, a 21% increase year - on - year. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 306,000 units, a 3% decrease compared to the same period in November last year and a 59% increase compared to the same period in the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 12.362 million units, a 29% increase year - on - year [4] Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore increased. The price of African SC 5% lithium ore was quoted at $730 per ton, a $100 increase from last week. The CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $1,060 per ton, a $120 increase from last week. The market price of lithium mica was 3,075 yuan per ton, a 300 - yuan increase from last week. The cost of the lithium carbonate industry was 73,646 yuan per ton, a 2,476 - yuan increase from last week, and the profit was 10,704 yuan per ton, a 1,800 - yuan increase [4] Total Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,472 tons, a decrease of 3,481 tons from last week. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 28,270 tons, a decrease of 2,446 tons [5] Market Performance - As of November 14th, LC2601 closed at 87,360 yuan per ton, a 6.1% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 87,000 yuan per ton, an 8.4% increase from last week. The basis discount widened, and the position of the main contract was 517,000 lots. This week, the main contract reached a new high for the year, approaching the 90,000 - yuan mark. On Monday, the position increased by 40,000 lots, and the weighted position approached 1 million lots, with continuous increase in market attention [7] Production Status - As of November 14th, the lithium carbonate production was 23,850 tons, a 385 - ton increase from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.84% increase from last week. This week, the production continued to increase slightly. The price increase stimulated the production enthusiasm of manufacturers, and the operating rates of some enterprises increased. The newly put - into - production capacity was ramping up steadily, the production of lithium carbonate from mica was gradually increasing, and the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene was restricted by raw material supply [9] - As of November 14th, the lithium hydroxide production was 6,520 tons, a 65 - ton increase from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 37.09%, a 0.37% increase from last week. This week, the lithium hydroxide production remained stable, and the operating rate was at a low level. Some production lines switched to lithium carbonate production, leading to a structural adjustment. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, dominated by small - batch orders [11] - As of November 14th, the lithium iron phosphate production was 99,906 tons, a 3,050 - ton increase from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 87.92%, a 2.68% increase from last week. This week, the lithium iron phosphate production continued to reach new highs, and the industry operating rate was close to 90%. The situation of strong supply and demand continued, especially the high - density lithium iron phosphate was in short supply. Downstream battery cell manufacturers maintained full production and sales, and material manufacturers had sufficient orders [13] Inventory Status - As of November 13th, the total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry was 120,472 tons, a decrease of 3,841 tons from last week. The warehouse receipt inventory was 27,170 tons, a decrease of 162 tons from last week. The inventory decline rate of lithium carbonate continued to increase, and the inventory level of smelters was less than 30,000 tons, lower than the same period last year. However, the inventory in the trader segment increased slightly. The warehouse receipts remained at a low level, and the warehouse receipts in November faced centralized cancellation [32] - As of November 14th, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 39,732 tons, a 400 - ton decrease from last week. This week, the finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate continued to decline. The continuous release of market demand drove the digestion of inventory. Downstream battery cell manufacturers had high capacity utilization rates. Lithium iron phosphate enterprises mainly fulfilled orders, with concentrated production scheduling, and the inventory maintained a downward trend [35] Cost and Profit Status - As of November 14th, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 73,646 yuan per ton, a 2,476 - yuan increase from last week, and the industry profit was 10,704 yuan per ton, a 1,800 - yuan increase. The price of lithium ore followed the fluctuations of lithium carbonate, and recently, the consumption rate of lithium ore was too fast. Mines gradually sold at high points, and the transaction price was at a premium to the futures price, further squeezing the processing fee. The profit of integrated smelters improved significantly [51] - As of November 14th, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 66,639 yuan per ton, a 1,826 - yuan decrease from last week, and the industry profit was 9,986 yuan per ton, a 2,343 - yuan increase from last week. This week, the prices of lithium carbonate and spodumene were strong, driving a narrow increase in the price of lithium hydroxide. Downstream ternary material manufacturers maintained normal production rhythms, providing some support for the price. The inventory level continued to decline, and the industry maintained a slight profit [54] - As of November 14th, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 38,284 yuan per ton, a 1,607 - yuan increase from last week. The loss was 2,284 yuan per ton, a 178 - yuan decrease from last week. The increase in the price of lithium carbonate at the raw material end supported the cost of lithium iron phosphate. Due to the tight supply of high - density lithium iron phosphate products, the processing fees of newly signed orders increased, and the industry's loss was slightly reduced [58]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate cuts in September has initiated a global liquidity easing cycle, leading to a consensus among institutions to increase allocations in Hong Kong stocks, which are seen as undervalued and sensitive to global liquidity changes [1] - Since September, several Hong Kong stock-related ETFs have experienced significant inflows, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong is gaining momentum, supported by improved policy mechanisms, increasing internationalization needs, and enhanced liquidity in the secondary market [1] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in bank stocks are primarily driven by short-term speculative fund withdrawals and rising market risk appetite, rather than fundamental issues [3] - The fourth quarter is expected to present opportunities for bank stock valuation recovery, especially following the third quarter's adjustments, with potential inflows from various funds [3] - The investment in China's lithium battery industry is rapidly increasing, with solid-state batteries emerging as a hot investment area, indicating a significant acceleration in the industrialization process [3] Group 3 - Several provinces, including Hebei and Gansu, have introduced capacity pricing and compensation policies that provide strong economic incentives for energy storage projects [5] - The increase in renewable energy capacity has led to a significant widening of peak-valley price differences, enhancing the economic viability of energy storage projects [5] - The global demand for energy storage is expected to surge, driven by the rising penetration of renewable energy and decreasing costs of storage systems, marking the beginning of a new cycle for the sector [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index has been stagnant for over a month, with market focus shifting from technology stocks to state-owned enterprise reforms, which are characterized by low valuations [9] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is low, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy [9] - The trend of A+H listings is expected to continue, with 11 A-share companies having completed such listings this year and over 30 more planning to do so [9]

Market Overview - As of Q3 2025, the total scale of equity ETFs in the market reached 47,783.40 billion yuan, with an increase of 2,271.56 billion yuan in the past week and a net inflow of 639.47 billion yuan [1] - All major categories experienced net inflows, with industry and thematic ETFs leading at +343.37 billion yuan, primarily driven by inflows into the semiconductor sector [1] Fund Inflow and Outflow Directions - In the broad-based and strategy ETF categories, the top three sectors with net inflows were: CSI A500, Sci-Tech Innovation 100, and Strategy-Dividend, while the top three sectors with net outflows were: CSI 300, Sci-Tech Innovation 50, and SSE 50 [2] Key Sector Performance - The top five sectors with net inflows in industry and thematic ETFs were: semiconductor chips (152.66 billion yuan), broad technology (57.16 billion yuan), battery storage (46.55 billion yuan), artificial intelligence (35.45 billion yuan), and entertainment media (25.21 billion yuan) [3] - The sectors with net outflows included: rare earths, photovoltaics, state-owned enterprises, broad pharmaceuticals, and insurance [3] Focus Areas 1. The largest chemical ETF (159870) saw net subscriptions exceeding 1 billion shares in the first two trading days of the week, driven by favorable policies and a strong performance in the chemical sector [4] 2. The Sci-Tech New Energy ETF (588830) reported higher-than-expected production of lithium iron phosphate, with demand for energy storage driving the lithium battery sector's growth [5] Index Performance - The CSI A500 index has increased by 21.91% year-to-date, with a PE ratio of 16.83, indicating strong market performance [6] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index has shown a remarkable increase of 51.20% year-to-date, reflecting significant investor interest in innovative sectors [7]

Group 1 - The high-end manufacturing sector, particularly solid-state batteries, is gaining significant market attention as a key area for technological upgrades [1] - The fund "Yuanxin Yongfeng High-end Manufacturing A" has seen its net asset value reach a nearly three-year high of 2.5835 yuan, reflecting strong investor interest in the solid-state battery sector [1] - The fund's manager indicates that the lithium battery industry is nearing a bottom, with profitability expected to recover by Q3 2024, and solid-state batteries entering a critical testing phase in 2025, with mass production anticipated in 2026 [1] Group 2 - EV Tank projects that global solid-state battery shipments will reach 614.1 GWh by 2030, with a market size exceeding 250 billion yuan, and Chinese companies expected to capture over 40% of the market share [2] - Solid-state batteries have the potential to completely replace existing lithium-ion batteries, suggesting a future market space that could reach trillions of yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 25, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.3% to 79,380 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 82,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped 1,400 yuan/ton to 80,200 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 160 yuan/ton to 77,330 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 640 tons to 25,630 tons [3]. - Fundamentally, on the supply side, production slowed down slightly, mainly due to the suspension of mica production. In the future, with the previous price increase and the increase in overseas imports, lithium extraction from spodumene is expected to continue to increase. Currently, the high成交 price of ore still supports the price of lithium carbonate. On the demand side, the total demand in August increased by 6% month - on - month. September is the traditional peak season, downstream production scheduling is expected to remain strong, and downstream inventory replenishment willingness is strong. The social inventory remains at 141,000 tons, showing a two - week slight de - stocking state, and the downstream procurement behavior has increased [3]. - The production problems of known resource projects have basically been settled. After the rapid price increase last week, there is short - term callback pressure, waiting for new disturbing factors to drive the price. In the short term, pay attention to the成交 price of lithium ore, and in the medium term, focus on the progress of other projects that need to complete report compilation and submission by September 30 [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 79,380 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan from August 22; the closing price of the continuous contract was 79,580 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was $925/ton, down $9; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,265 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,995 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 6,685 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,735 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,500 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 80,200 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 77,330 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 82,300 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 72,210 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was $8.85/kg, unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price was 56,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Price Difference**: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 5,170 yuan/ton, up 1,240 yuan; CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 14,352.52 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [5]. - **Precursor and Cathode Materials**: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 77,265 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 76,830 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 72,620 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 90,795 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 114,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 119,525 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 117,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 145,950 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 35,810 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage) was 34,410 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 31,550 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 36,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 227,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.385 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.4 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.33 yuan/piece, up 0.01 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.325 yuan/Wh, up 0.002 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.33 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 5.75 yuan/Ah, up 0.2 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.301 yuan/Wh, unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Price**: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Price**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - **Price Difference**: Charts present the price difference trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) - domestic, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [19][22][24]. - **Precursor and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][27][29]. - **Lithium Battery Price**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][34]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from January to August 2025 [38][40][41]. - **Production Cost**: A chart shows the production cost trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, 外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 to 2025 [44].

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of operations at the Jiangxi-based lithium mica mine, Jiangxiawo, owned by CATL, has sparked industry discussions regarding the duration of the shutdown and its implications for the lithium market [1][3][4]. Company Summary - CATL is currently processing the renewal application for its mining license, and it has stated that the suspension will not significantly impact its overall operations [3][14]. - The Jiangxiawo mine is CATL's largest lithium mica source, and its activities are crucial for the lithium mica and carbonate markets [4][14]. - The mine's average ore grade is approximately 0.27%, making it one of the higher-cost mines in Jiangxi [14]. Industry Summary - The suspension began on August 10, 2023, and has led to a noticeable decrease in mining activity and transportation of materials to the nearby processing plant [6][8]. - The lithium carbonate market is currently facing challenges, with production costs for lithium mica ranging from 80,000 to 120,000 yuan per ton, while current lithium carbonate prices do not cover these costs [14][17]. - The total output of lithium carbonate in 2024 is projected to be 1.33 million tons, with 222,000 tons (16.4%) sourced from lithium mica [13]. - The market is speculating on the reasons for the suspension, including potential misalignment between the licensed mining products and actual outputs, as well as broader industry trends towards reducing overproduction [17][18].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0%, down from a 0.1% increase in the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to July[1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose to 0.8% year-on-year in July, indicating a slight improvement in the basic price level[2] - The decline in food CPI was significant, with a year-on-year drop expanding from -0.3% to -1.6%, primarily due to high base prices from the previous year[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 3.6% in July, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 2.9% from January to July[1] - The PPI month-on-month fell by 0.2%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a stabilization in industrial prices[8] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improved market price expectations, contributing to a narrowing of the PPI decline in July[9] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall price level remains weak, driven by insufficient consumer demand and a prolonged adjustment in the real estate market[6] - Future macroeconomic policies are expected to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery, with potential for further fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts[7] - The uncertainty in the international trade environment poses ongoing downward pressure on export industrial prices, which may affect domestic PPI trends[12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly, with the long - term contract basis changing from positive to negative. Due to the suspension of production at Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area and no short - term resumption plan, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise significantly. Before overseas mines, lithium carbonate, and lithium sulfate significantly increase to make up for the gap, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain an upward trend. Conversely, the resumption of the project needs to be closely monitored, and after resumption, the price will quickly fall to the price center with increased costs [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Price Trends - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 76,640 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7,720 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, also a weekly increase of 7,720 yuan/ton. The spot price increased by 550 yuan/ton to 71,900 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2509 contract) decreased by 7,170 yuan/ton to - 4,740 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was - 170 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The spread between the 2509 - 2511 contracts was - 320 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Macro - On August 9, it was learned from multiple market sources that the mining end of Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area will stop production at 12 o'clock tonight. Starting from August 10, the mining end of this mine will stop working, and there is no short - term resumption plan [2] 3.2.2 Supply - From July 28 to August 3, 2025, the total shipment of Australian lithium concentrate to China was 129,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons. In July, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43%, of which 13,600 tons were exported to China, a month - on - month increase of 33% [2] 3.2.3 Demand - This week, the new energy passenger vehicle market continued to recover, with sales of 245,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.38%. The new energy penetration rate slightly declined to 53% but still remained at a high level. The winning bid scale of energy storage continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the domestic energy storage market completed a total of 9.0GW/25.8GWh of tendering work, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 34.24% [2] 3.2.4 Inventory - The total social inventory of lithium carbonate increased, with upstream destocking and downstream inventory accumulation. The lithium carbonate inventory was 142,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 692 tons, and the number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 18,800 tons [2] 3.3 Future Market Views - Due to the suspension of production at Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area and no short - term resumption plan, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise significantly. Before overseas mines, lithium carbonate, and lithium sulfate significantly increase to make up for the gap, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain an upward trend. Conversely, the resumption of the project needs to be closely monitored, and after resumption, the price will quickly fall to the price center with increased costs [3] 3.4 Trading Strategies 3.4.1 Single - sided - The price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 75,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton [4] 3.4.2 Inter - period - It is recommended to wait for the structure to strengthen, then consider the upward movement of the single - sided price. With a negative long - term contract basis, the number of warehouse receipts will increase significantly, which is suitable for reverse arbitrage [4] 3.4.3 Hedging - It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging after the price rebounds to a high level, and the hedging ratio should consider the annual output in the second half of the year [4]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, the registration scale of "insurance version ABS" exceeded 180 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46% [1] - 13 insurance asset management institutions registered 38 asset-backed plans, indicating a strong demand for stable cash flow and lower risk compared to equity assets [1] - The decline in operating loan rates below 3% indicates ongoing pressure on banks' net interest margins and profitability [1][2] Group 2 - The number of A-share companies intending to acquire IPO candidates has significantly increased, with 27 companies disclosing plans compared to 6 last year [1] - The surge in acquisition plans is attributed to policy benefits, increased exit demands from venture capital, accelerated industry consolidation, and valuation advantages of IPO candidates [1] - The solid-state battery technology is expected to gradually find applications across multiple fields, with significant advancements in energy density and safety [2] - The lithium battery industry is focusing on optimizing capacity structure, moving away from price competition towards quality and innovation [2] Group 3 - Apple COO Jeff Williams announced his retirement, marking a significant personnel change within the company [4] - The restructuring of Chang'an Group is expected to be finalized in August, indicating a strategic shift in the automotive sector [6] - GAC Fiat Chrysler has declared bankruptcy due to the lack of restructuring possibilities [6] Group 4 - ByteDance denied rumors regarding the sale of TikTok's U.S. operations to a consortium led by Oracle, stating the information is false [5] - The IPO of Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical has seen a subscription rate of 108 times for its public offering in Hong Kong [7] - Meicheng Technology has initiated the IPO counseling process with CITIC Securities for its listing on A-shares [8]