行 华福证券 食品饮料 2026 年 01 月 15 日 业 研 究 食品饮料 破晓启航——2026 年行业投资策略报告 投资建议 证 券 研 究 报 告 餐饮建议优先布局反转行情。龙头企业依托强组织能力、供应链体系与品 牌规模效应，有望实现显著的恢复弹性，建议关注海底捞、百胜中国、蜜雪集 团、古茗、小菜园。把握餐饮链龙头困境反转机会，建议重点关注餐饮供应链 龙头安井食品以及具备利润弹性和海外扩张能力的安琪酵母，此外建议关注海 天味业、千禾味业、巴比食品、立高食品；啤酒板块有望迎来贝塔复苏，与此 同时，行业高端扩容的主线预计将延续，首先关注在高端市场具备进一步突破 潜力的燕京啤酒；其次是行业绝对领导者青岛啤酒与华润啤酒，白酒短期建议 把握春节窗口，全年维度上，建议按照产业趋势与出清节奏进行配置：初期建 议关注竞争格局稳固的贵州茅台，根据业绩出清程度建议关注古井贡酒、五粮 液、泸州老窖，以及在 100–300 元价位具备成长势能的大众酒品牌金徽酒与 迎驾贡酒；同时持续跟踪洋河股份的改革进度。 大众品角度，主要机会可分为存量优化和成长赛道。从存量优化角度看， 26 年看原奶温和回升带来产业利润率改善机会，建议关注 ...

1月14日，市场冲高回落，沪指午后快速翻绿。沪深两市成交额3.94万亿元，较上一个交易日放量2904 亿。中证食品饮料指数(930653.CSI)下跌0.53%，该指数成分股中，紫燕食品上涨超5%，新诺威上涨超 3%，莲花控股与粤桂股份上涨近3%。 江海证券表示，茅台市场化改革有利于直接促达C端消费者，并倒逼经销商转型。同时，他们指出，白 酒行业已处于底部区域，报表端逐步出清，库存压力大幅减缓。展望2026年，随着龙头企业的市场化改 革，白酒行业的价量有望进一步平衡。关注五粮液、老窖和汾酒等龙头企业的出清节奏，建议左侧逐步 布局白酒板块。 太平洋指出，临近春节，积极把握春节备货行情，关注零食、饮料板块，春节送礼囤货和同去年春节错 期，今年一季度部分公司在相对低基数下有望迎来改善，关注Q1春节备货行情。历经几个月的深度调 整，部分公司切换到2026年估值已落入合理偏低的位置，同时筹码较大出清，重点提示有业绩的消费股 年底估值切换的机会，中长期推荐具备较好成长的优质公司。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 相关ETF方面，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）昨日成交额为4686.28万元，较前一交易日放量，实时溢价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of high-end snack brands, particularly in the nut and seed sector, has transformed traditional low-cost snacks into luxury items, significantly impacting consumer spending habits and market dynamics [12][18][41]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The average transaction price for high-end snack products reached 68.3 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [12]. - The market for high-end snacks is rapidly growing, with projections indicating that the overall snack market in China will approach 1.4 trillion yuan by 2024, with high-end snacks capturing an increasing share [18]. - Brands like Xueji and Qiwang have transitioned from street vendors to high-end retail, with Xueji's expansion to over 1,000 stores and Qiwang exceeding 760 stores [6][16]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers, previously believing that a monthly income of over 10,000 yuan would allow for snack freedom, are now finding high-end snacks unaffordable [8][10]. - The perception of snacks has shifted, with traditional items like sunflower seeds and peanuts now viewed as luxury goods, leading to a change in purchasing behavior [8][12]. - Consumers are increasingly sensitive to pricing, with many expressing reluctance to disclose their snack purchases due to high costs [10][12]. Group 3: Brand Strategies - High-end snack brands employ strategies such as upgrading store environments and emphasizing product quality through sourcing claims to justify higher prices [22][25]. - Xueji's marketing focuses on creating an inviting atmosphere and offering product samples to enhance consumer experience and perceived value [22][24]. - Both Xueji and Qiwang have adopted a strategy of sourcing premium ingredients and utilizing unique cooking methods to differentiate their products [25][27]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The market features a dichotomy between high-end brands like Xueji and Qiwang and budget-friendly options like Haoxianglai and Zhaoyiming, which cater to different consumer segments [28][39]. - High-end brands rely on high margins from premium products, while budget brands focus on volume sales through low pricing strategies [31][39]. - The contrasting business models highlight the diverse consumer needs in the snack market, with both segments thriving simultaneously [29][33].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Youyou Food's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.01% and a current price of 12.68 CNY per share, while the company has shown a year-to-date increase of 3.51% [1] - As of January 14, the company had a market capitalization of 5.423 billion CNY and a trading volume of 66.8712 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 1.21% [1] - The main business of Youyou Food includes the research, production, and sales of flavored snacks, with the revenue composition being 66.36% from flavored chicken feet, 12.90% from other flavored meat products, and smaller contributions from various other snack categories [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, Youyou Food reported a total revenue of 1.245 billion CNY for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 174 million CNY, up 43.34% year-on-year [2] - The number of shareholders increased by 40.75% to 23,600, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 28.95% to 18,141 shares [2] - Since its A-share listing, Youyou Food has distributed a total of 9.25 billion CNY in dividends, with 5.47 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]

Group 1: Company Leadership Changes - Zhang Yong has returned to the CEO position of Haidilao, effective January 13, 2026, following the resignation of Guo Yiqun as CEO [1] - Zhang Yong previously handed over the CEO role to Yang Lijuan in March 2022, and Guo Yiqun took over in June 2024 [1] - The leadership change comes as Haidilao faces performance challenges, with a 3.0% year-on-year revenue decline to 20.703 billion yuan and a 13.7% drop in net profit to 1.755 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The restaurant industry in China is experiencing a slowdown, with the China Cuisine Association noting a trend of "slowing revenue growth, declining profits, and intensified competition" in the first half of 2025 [1] - Competitors like Xiaobing Xiaobing reported an 18.88% revenue decline to 1.942 billion yuan and a net loss of 84 million yuan during the same period [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Zhang Yong's return is linked to the "Pomegranate Plan," a multi-brand incubation strategy launched in August 2024, aimed at creating a second growth curve for Haidilao [2] - As of June 2025, the "Pomegranate Plan" has incubated 14 restaurant brands, with a total of 126 stores, and the related business saw a 227% year-on-year revenue increase to 600 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company is at a critical juncture for transformation, with Zhang Yong becoming more involved in operational details [2]

Core Insights - The upcoming 2026 Lunar New Year is expected to trigger a significant consumer spending surge, with a projected 11% increase in holiday spending intentions compared to the previous year, following an 8.7% growth in overall sales during the 2025 Spring Festival [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Trends - The concept of "emotional consumption" is gaining prominence, with consumers increasingly valuing emotional benefits over cost-effectiveness in their purchasing decisions [2]. - Products featuring popular IP elements are attracting younger consumers and becoming viral on social media, while snack gift boxes are becoming essential for family gatherings and social visits during the holiday season [2]. - The average price of all product categories in offline retail increased by 13.8% during the 2025 Spring Festival, with snacks benefiting from both price increases and volume growth due to the "gift economy" [2]. Group 2: Product Strategy - Lays has launched over ten new Spring Festival limited edition products, including various gift boxes and snack combinations, catering to diverse consumer preferences for gifting and personal use [4]. - Some products are co-branded with the widely recognized IP "Kung Fu Panda," featuring auspicious messages, which are expected to resonate with consumers during the festive season [4]. - New single-pack flavors have been introduced, creatively combining taste with New Year blessings, enhancing their appeal as both gifts and snacks [4]. Group 3: Marketing and Brand Positioning - Lays is positioned as a "New Year happiness amplifier," engaging consumers during the festive season through a variety of new snack combinations that evoke emotional resonance [6]. - The brand has a history of integrating its products with traditional holiday customs and collaborating with celebrities to strengthen its brand identity [7]. - Recently, Lays announced new celebrity ambassadors, Shen Teng and Fan Chengcheng, to enhance its marketing efforts for the Spring Festival [9]. Group 4: Advertising Impact - The launch of the 2026 New Year TV commercial features humor and integrates the product into relatable Chinese New Year scenarios, effectively connecting with consumer sentiments [10]. - The marketing campaign has achieved significant engagement on social media, with over 16.4 million likes on related short videos and 150 million views on the associated Weibo topic [10]. - This marketing strategy not only enhances brand loyalty during peak seasons but also supports offline sales through effective consumer insights and emotional engagement [10]. Group 5: Channel Strategy - The evolving retail landscape shows increased e-commerce penetration and offline membership store coverage, prompting brands to accelerate their omnichannel strategies [11]. - Predictions indicate that omnichannel consumption will continue to recover during the 2026 Spring Festival, presenting growth opportunities for brands and their distribution partners [11]. - Lays is preparing for the terminal market by creating immersive in-store displays to attract consumers and enhance the shopping experience during the festive season [11]. Group 6: Future Outlook - As the 2026 New Year shopping season begins, Lays is poised to capitalize on the emotional high point of the holiday, leveraging limited edition products and innovative channel strategies to meet consumer expectations for a festive atmosphere [12].

1月13日，盐津铺子盘中下跌2.01%，截至11:14，报74.18元/股，成交1.71亿元，换手率0.93%，总市值 202.30亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出108.93万元，特大单买入875.97万元，占比5.13%，卖出1475.66万元， 占比8.65%；大单买入3646.05万元，占比21.37%，卖出3155.29万元，占比18.49%。 分红方面，盐津铺子A股上市后累计派现14.28亿元。近三年，累计派现10.32亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，盐津铺子十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股687.55万股，相比上期减少217.73万股。富国消费主题混合A（519915）位居第六大流通 股东，持股258.18万股，相比上期增加28.03万股。富国价值创造混合A（011099）位居第七大流通股 东，持股219.88万股，相比上期增加15.37万股。工银圆兴混合（009076）位居第九大流通股东，持股 170.00万股，相比上期减少30.00万股。兴全商业模式混合(LOF)A（163415）位居第十大流通股东，持 股150.68万股，相比上期减少22. ...

这也是AI时代商学领域的创新之路。 点击阅读原文， 价值999元自研《混沌AI商业应用白皮书》（电子版），等你拿！混沌和你携手，抢占AI生态位！ 2025年12月27日，广州。 一家年营收数亿的头部零食企业负责人，站在300多位企业家面前，分享了一个令人深思的对比。 此前，他们投入 150万元 ，聘请国内头部咨询公司做品牌定位升级。方案交付了，但最终未能落地。而就在刚刚结束的混沌AI院一模块实战营中，他们用 两天时 间 ，结合混沌方法论和AI工具，产出了一套完整的、可立即执行的品牌创新方案。 这不仅仅是效率的差距，更是当前企业AI化转型困境的缩影—— 有工具不会用，有方案难落地 。传统咨询交付的是"图纸"，而混沌AI院实战营交付的是能立即 开动的"引擎"。 实战过程：从全景图到可执行方案的两天密集训练 这不是一场传统的讲座或培训。2025年12月27-28日，混沌AI院一模块实战营现场，更像是一个高速运转的"AI方案工厂"。300多位企业家在这里经历了两天密集 的实战训练，从理念认知到方案产出，完成了从"图纸"到"引擎"的实质性跨越。 AI院现场直击：第一部分，从理念到全景的认知跃迁 课程从第一天上午开始，就 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 食品饮料周报（26 年第 2 周） 优于大市 渠道步入春节旺季备货，多重利好催化餐饮供应链 行情回顾：本周食品饮料（A 股和 H 股）累计上涨 1.98%，其中 A 股食品饮 料（申万食品饮料指数）上涨 2.14%，跑输沪深 300 约 0.64pct；H 股食品饮 料（恒生港股通食品饮料）下跌 0.27%，跑输恒生消费指数 1.21pct。本周 食品饮料板块涨幅前五分别为紫燕食品(33.97%)、千味央厨(22.52%)、安记 食品(18.34%)、养元饮品(14.78%)和好想你(14.75%)。 品类基本面延续分化，饮料＞食品＞酒类。（1）酒类。白酒：板块红利属 性突出，茅台市场化改革多项措施逐步落地。当前板块进入左侧布局阶段， 具备价位、区域话语权的优质公司有望获取更大增长空间，推荐泸州老窖/ 山西汾酒、贵州茅台、迎驾贡酒，也建议关注五粮液/洋河股份/舍得酒业的 改革节奏。啤酒：行业库存良性，静待需求回暖。我们预计后续啤酒板块对 政策发力、需求回暖的感知较快。优先推荐大单品快速增长、内部改革持续 深化、业绩成长性强的燕京啤酒。（2）饮料。乳制品：春节备货有序推 ...

行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 01 月 12 日 食品饮料 证券研究报告 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台加速营销市场 化转型，普飞上架 i 茅台》2026-01-05 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：扩内需提至战略高 度，五粮液主动求变》2025-12-22 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台控量稳价，批 价反弹回升》2025-12-15 会，稳健姿态应对行业调整》2025-12-08 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台理性定调，不 唯指标论》2025-12-01 范林泉 S0820525020001 021-32229888-25516 fanlinquan@ajzq.com 朱振浩 S0820125020001 021-32229888-25515 zhuzhenhao@ajzq.com 行业及产业 i 茅台抢购热度高，C 端触达效果显著 ——食品饮料行业跟踪报告 白酒：酒企步入业绩快速出清通道。随着政策压力逐渐消退，在扩消费政策催化下，需求有 望弱复苏。行业目前处于估值低位，悲观预期充分，预计后续行业出清 ...