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缪延亮:国际货币体系新形势下 可从四方面推进人民币国际化
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 12:30
新华财经北京7月25日电(记者翟卓)"基于国际货币体系的四个新形势,建议从推进人民币结算和计 价、构建投融资闭环、发行离岸稳定币及增强汇率弹性等四方面着手,进一步推进人民币国际化。"中 国金融四十人论坛(CF40)成员、中金公司首席策略师缪延亮近日表示。 聚焦国际货币体系的新变化看,缪延亮提到,首先是美元信誉出现裂痕。近段时间,美国股债汇"三 杀"频繁出现、美债作为安全资产的安全性下降,同时美债安全资产溢价持续缩水,反映出美元霸权 的"双锚"("法理锚"及"功能锚")正在弱化。 其次是"中国制造"崛起。近年来,随着我国在新能源汽车、5G通信、AI等战略新兴领域的突破性发 展,市场对"中国制造"的关注度明显提升,中国制造业叙事正变得更加积极。同时我国突出的制造业实 力也令人民币的使用更具定价权。 第三是经贸体系重构。例如在国际贸易方面,今年以来美国对贸易伙伴大幅加征关税,意味着美国作全 球最终消费国的意愿有所下降,贸易渠道的美元供给或逐步减少,这也为其他货币的贸易结算和计价创 造了更广泛机会。 最后是加密货币兴起。"有人将稳定币比作美元的'速效救心丸',也有人说它是美元争夺全球霸权的杀 招。但在我看来,因为便捷 ...
高质量完成“十四五”规划|向知识产权创造大国迈进
Xin Hua She· 2025-07-17 10:18
Core Insights - China is making significant progress in becoming a strong nation in intellectual property (IP) during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on enhancing innovation capabilities and the effective utilization of IP [1][2]. Group 1: Innovation Strength - China is transitioning from being a major importer of IP to a creator of IP, with a notable increase in high-value core patents in strategic emerging sectors such as 5G, AI, aerospace, and new energy vehicles [2]. - As of June 2023, the number of high-value invention patents per 10,000 people reached 15.3, surpassing the 12 target set for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]. - There are 524,000 domestic enterprises holding effective invention patents, totaling 3.727 million patents, which accounts for 74.4% of the national total, reflecting a 6.1 percentage point increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2]. Group 2: Patent Growth by Sector - The top three sectors for growth in effective invention patents are information technology management methods, computer technology, and medical technology, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.1%, 22.7%, and 19.8% respectively, significantly outpacing the average growth rate [3]. - Patent-intensive industries contributed 16.87 trillion yuan in added value in 2023, representing 13.04% of China's GDP [3]. Group 3: Utilization and Commercialization - The transformation of IP into productive forces is emphasized, with initiatives to promote patent commercialization leading to a rise in the industrialization rate of enterprise invention patents from 44.9% in 2020 to 53.3% by 2024 [4]. - The annual import and export total of IP usage fees is projected to increase from 319.44 billion yuan in 2020 to 398.71 billion yuan by 2024 [4]. - The value of Chinese brands among the global top 5,000 reached 1.76 trillion USD, ranking second worldwide [4]. Group 4: International Cooperation - China has established IP cooperation with over 80 countries and regions, with a patent examination highway covering 84 countries, enhancing the innovation environment for foreign enterprises in China [5]. - The country has provided extensive guidance and consultation services to outbound enterprises, helping to reduce litigation costs by 1.32 billion yuan and recover economic losses of 38.04 billion yuan [5]. - China is also promoting green innovation through international cooperation, contributing 12,000 green technologies to the World Intellectual Property Organization [5].
特稿 | 章俊:资本市场如何赋能新质生产力
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 01:33
Core Viewpoint - The development of new productive forces is a strategic choice for China's economy amid global changes, emphasizing the need for technological innovation and capital market support to enhance national competitiveness and drive high-quality economic growth [2][4]. Group 1: Global Context and Challenges - The world is undergoing a deep technological revolution and industrial transformation, with intensified geopolitical risks and adjustments in the international monetary system [2][3]. - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, are impacting global energy security and commodity prices, leading to increased cross-border investment risks [3]. - The U.S. dollar's dominance is being questioned, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves projected to drop to 57.8% by the end of 2024, indicating a shift towards a multipolar currency system [3]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Transformation - China's urbanization rate has surpassed 67%, and the real estate market is facing a fundamental reversal in supply-demand dynamics, with land transfer revenue expected to decline by 16% in 2024 [4]. - The traditional "land finance" model is unsustainable, revealing risks such as repeated construction and local government debt [4]. - New productive forces, driven by technological innovation and data as key production factors, are crucial for breaking through the current economic transformation [4]. Group 3: Role of Capital Markets - Capital markets are essential for nurturing new productive forces, facilitating resource allocation, and supporting technological innovation [5][8]. - The Chinese government has prioritized the development of capital markets, implementing policies to enhance their functionality and efficiency [5][6]. - The capital market's ability to support technology enterprises throughout their lifecycle is being strengthened, with various initiatives aimed at improving access to financing [6][7]. Group 4: Challenges in Capital Market Empowerment - Supply-side challenges include insufficient patient capital and limited exit channels for equity investments, which hinder investment in high-risk tech startups [9][10]. - Demand-side issues involve mismatches between investment preferences and the financing needs of early-stage companies, as well as inadequate mechanisms for transitioning between different market segments [11][12]. - Mechanism-related challenges include information asymmetry and the need for a restructured valuation system that accurately reflects the potential of new productive forces [13][14]. Group 5: Recommendations for Strengthening Capital Market Support - To cultivate patient capital, innovative long-term assessment mechanisms should be established, focusing on aligning investments with strategic technological advancements [15][17]. - Diversifying exit pathways and enhancing institutional investor participation in the secondary market can optimize capital allocation and support new productive forces [16][18]. - A comprehensive governance framework should be developed to improve risk assessment models and enhance collaboration among market participants [19][20].
ETF英雄汇:信息科技ETF(512330.SH)领涨、标普消费ETF(159529.SZ)溢价明显-20250605
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 09:53
Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.23% to 3384.10 points, marking a three-day increase [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.58% to 10203.50 points, also achieving three consecutive days of gains [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.17% to 2048.62 points, continuing its three-day upward trend [1] - Total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.29 trillion yuan, exceeding 1 trillion yuan for six consecutive days [1] Sector Performance - The components sector performed notably well, surging by 5.15% [1] - Consumer electronics and communication equipment sectors followed, with increases of 3.22% and 3.14% respectively [1] - The AI index on the ChiNext rose by 3.33%, with several AI ETFs also showing significant gains [1][4] ETF Performance - The Information Technology ETF (512330.SH) increased by 3.98%, with a total share size of 555 million [3] - The AI ETF from Huaxia (159381.SZ) rose by 3.86%, with a share size of 272 million [4] - The 5G ETF (159994.SZ) increased by 3.40%, with a total share size of 1.733 billion [5] - The overall market saw 785 non-currency ETFs rise, accounting for 68% of the total [1] Valuation Metrics - The latest PE-TTM for the CSI 500 Information Technology Index is 98.22, lower than the 98.48% level maintained over the past three years [4] - The PE-TTM for the ChiNext AI Index stands at 74.41, below the 63.38% level of the past three years [5] - The PE-TTM for the CSI 5G Communication Index is 26.46, also lower than the 29.28% level over the last three years [5] Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 Consumer Select Index showed a premium of 24.20%, indicating strong market sentiment [8] - The S&P 500 Index also experienced a premium of 15.80%, reflecting positive investor sentiment [8]
晚报 | 5月27日主题前瞻
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-05-26 15:11
Group 1: Flash Memory Market - TrendForce predicts a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase in NAND flash prices by Q3 2025, driven by AI demand and enterprise SSD growth [1] - Major NAND flash manufacturers, including Samsung and SK Hynix, have reduced production by 10%-15% in Q2 2023 to address oversupply [1] - The storage price trend shows a rebound in Q2 2023, with DRAM and NAND flash contract prices expected to rise by 3%-8% [1] Group 2: Star Flash Technology - Huawei's WATCH5 series will be the world's first smartwatch to support Star Flash technology, which is expected to disrupt the short-range wireless communication market [2] - Star Flash technology is projected to reach a global market size of over $6 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 117.2% [2] Group 3: Nuclear Power Industry - The U.S. government plans to construct 10 large nuclear power plants by 2030 and quadruple nuclear power capacity by 2050, aiming to reform the nuclear energy sector [3] - Domestic projects related to nuclear fusion are accelerating, with significant achievements in high-temperature plasma research [3] Group 4: AI Computing Power - Huawei has launched the Ascend Super Node technology, which is the largest scale interconnection in the industry, enhancing AI computing capabilities [4] - The demand for computing power in North America is creating growth opportunities for the AI industry and related supply chains [4] Group 5: Humanoid Robots - The first global competition featuring humanoid robots took place in Hangzhou, marking a significant milestone for the robotics industry [5] - The humanoid robot sector is expected to accelerate development, with increased policy support and market participation from various industry players [5] Group 6: 5G Satellite Communication - The International Telecommunication Union has approved a detailed specification for 5G satellite radio interfaces, enhancing the integration of satellite and terrestrial communication systems [6] - The development of 5G non-terrestrial networks (NTN) is expected to enable seamless global coverage and low-latency communication [6]
限制中国芯片 美国必将从失败走向失败
Ke Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-22 23:59
(文章来源:科技日报) 但在中国产品的市场竞争力面前,这些政治操弄和霸权打压都是徒劳的。据位于丹麦的电信行业咨询公 司斯特兰德统计,到2024年第四季度,32个欧洲国家中三分之一的5G站点仍然使用中国网络设备。预 计到2028年,中国5G设备在欧洲的市场份额仍然可以占到29%到32%。英国LightReading新闻对此报道 称:"华为在欧洲5G领域几乎没有受到削弱"。 事实上,无论是技术封锁还是市场绞杀,美国不会得逞的根本原因在于,其一直奉行"损人利己"的霸权 心理。正如黄仁勋在接受科技博客Stratechery采访时所说,美国应该通过超越创新、加快步伐赢得胜 利,不能要想获胜,就把别人拉下马,"我们阻碍别人前进,反而会激励他们更加伟大"。 得道多助,失道寡助。美国对华芯片的限制打压走上了邪道,必然会以失败告终。 从科技到市场,美国在升级打压手段的同时,也在事实上承认了此前技术封锁的失败。这也从另一个角 度肯定了中国芯片产业实现高水平科技自立自强的阶段性成功。正如英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋日前表 示,美国限制向中国出口先进芯片的管制措施是失败的,这给了中国企业"加速自身发展的精神、活力 以及政府的支持"。4年前 ...
京津冀一周观察丨前4月京津冀出口创历史新高,邯郸通报生猪注水问题
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-05-21 02:16
1、民营企业出口增长强劲 前4月京津冀区域出口创历史新高 京津冀一周观察【0514-0520】 北京日报近日消息,2025年前4个月,京津冀区域进出口总额1.43万亿元人民币,占同期我国进出口总 值的10.1%。其中,出口4454.6亿元,创历史同期新高,增长1.7%。 北京海关相关负责人介绍,2025年前4个月,北京是拉动京津冀区域出口增长的关键因素,占比较2024 年同期提高1.4个百分点至45%,主导地位进一步提高,上拉京津冀出口增速2.1个百分点,带动作用最 强。 京津冀出口呈现出民营企业出口增长强劲、新兴产业出口保持增长、自主品牌占比提升等特点。 数据显示,4月京津冀企业顶住压力交出亮眼答卷,出口1216.6亿元,创历史同期新高,增长8%,增幅 为2024年6月份以来新高。 2、2027年北京将全面实现5G规模化应用 5月16日,数智赋能·共享"京"彩——北京2025世界电信和信息社会日主题活动举办。市经信局、市通信 管理局等部门共同发布《北京市5G规模化应用"扬帆"行动升级方案(2025-2027年)》。据悉,目前本 市已建成5G基站超14万个,到2027年底将全面实现5G规模化应用,成为国内领先 ...
破浪前行:中国经济无惧风雨,勇立潮头
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 02:28
中国政府拥有强大的宏观调控能力,能够根据经济形势的变化及时调整政策,保障经济的稳定运行。在面对外 部冲击时,政府出台了一系列政策措施,帮助企业渡过难关。减税降费政策是其中的重要举措之一。通过降低 企业的增值税、所得税等税负,减少企业的社保缴费等费用,有效减轻了企业的负担,提高了企业的盈利能 力。同时,政府还加大了对企业的金融支持力度,引导金融机构增加对企业的信贷投放,降低企业的融资成 本。 在扩大内需方面,政府积极推动消费升级和基础设施建设。通过提高居民收入水平、完善社会保障体系等措 施,增强居民的消费能力和消费意愿。同时,加大对交通、能源、水利等基础设施建设的投入,不仅改善了民 生,还为经济增长提供了有力支撑。基础设施建设的推进,不仅带动了相关产业的发展,还创造了大量的就业 机会。 近期,国际风云变幻,美国肆意挥舞关税大棒,一些西方政客趁机老调重弹,抛出"中国经济崩溃论",妄图混 淆视听、误导国际认知。然而,事实胜于雄辩,中国经济这艘巨轮,不仅能在惊涛骇浪中稳稳扛住冲击,更将 以磅礴之势破浪前行,彰显出无比的自信与从容。 中国经济拥有深厚而坚实的根基,这是抵御外部风险、破浪前行的底气所在。从产业体系来看,中 ...
经济学家许小年:中国不应该弯道超车,还没有资格搞工业4.0?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 00:55
Group 1 - The article critiques the outdated views of economist Xu Xiaonian, highlighting that his predictions about China's manufacturing capabilities have been proven wrong by reality [1][5][9] - China's dominance in the electric vehicle sector is attributed to its production of 70% of the world's battery and silicon wafer output, showcasing a robust supply chain and ecosystem [3][5] - The high-speed rail system in China has surpassed initial skepticism, with the country now holding the world's longest high-speed rail network and even exporting technology to Germany [3][5] Group 2 - China's manufacturing accounts for nearly 30% of global output, which is 1.5 times that of the United States, indicating significant growth and efficiency [5][7] - The article emphasizes that China's manufacturing is no longer about low-cost production but about leading in standards, technology, and brand creation [5][7][9] - The narrative suggests that China's advancements in various sectors, including solar energy, electric vehicles, and 5G communication, are backed by substantial data and market recognition [7][9]
主题聚焦|关注内循环,进一步布局业绩板块
中信证券研究· 2025-04-21 01:03
文 | 秦培景 王冠然 刘易 白弘伟 任恒毅 1)特朗普维持对华政策强硬。 根据白宫4月1 5日更新的声明,美国对部分中国商品(如电动汽 车、针筒等)的关税已叠加至2 4 5%。这一税率远超此前公布的1 4 5%"对等关税",导致中国对美 出口几乎停滞,中美贸易面临归零风险。全球资本市场动荡加剧,经济预期不确定性加剧。特朗 普政府要求近7 0个国家在获得关税减免时,需承诺限制对华贸易合作,包括禁止中企通过第三国 转口、限制中国产品进入其市场等。 2)习近平主席出访越南、柬埔寨和马来西亚等国,推动东盟国家多边贸易。 习近平主席于2 0 2 5 年4月1 4日至1 8日出访越南、马来西亚和柬埔寨三国。访问期间,中越双方签署了涵盖互联互 通、人工智能、绿色发展等领域的4 5份合作文本,旨在加强产业链、供应链合作。例如,越南支 持中国电动汽车和新能源产业投资,中方则承诺扩大越南农产品进口,优化跨境物流效率。中马 签署包括外交、国防" 2+2 "对话机制在内的3 0多份合作文件,并发表《构建高水平战略性中马命 运共同体联合声明》。中马越三国均表态维护全球产业链稳定,共同抵制单边制裁。例如中方承 诺扩大东盟优质产品进口, ...