受阿里消息助推，午后市场情绪被点燃！港股午后现快速拉升行情，三大指数均涨超1%，恒生科技指 数最高涨至1.5%，最终收涨0.8%，恒生指数、国企指数分别上涨0.56%及0.63%，恒指更是站上27000点 上方。 盘面上，大型科技股午后多数转涨，媒体报道已秘密启动"千问"项目，阿里巴巴一度冲高至6%，带领 一众科技股由跌转涨，网易、美团收盘小幅上涨；造纸行业涨价潮持续升温且力度加码，纸业股全天表 现强势；现货黄金突破4220美元，黄金股带领有色金属股走俏，存储涨价行情有望贯穿26年全年，半导 体芯片股午后多数转涨，龙头中芯国际涨超3%，生物医药股、航空股、汽车股、保险股多数表现活 跃。 另一方面，欧佩克警告全球原油市场转入结构性过剩，国际油价大跌，连续上涨的三桶油回调明显，煤 炭股、燃气股等能源板块走低。(格隆汇) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Group 1: U.S. Employment and Market Reactions - The weak private sector employment data in the U.S. has heightened investor expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue interest rate cuts in December, leading to a rotation of funds from technology stocks to value stocks [1] - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.68% and reaching a record closing high, while the S&P 500 index slightly increased by 0.06%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.26% [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector Performance - Some popular semiconductor stocks rebounded, with AMD's CEO forecasting that the data center market will reach $1 trillion, indicating significant growth potential for the company's AI and data center business [2] - AMD's stock surged by 9%, leading the S&P 500 index, while Micron Technology rose by 1.57%. Conversely, Oracle, which had its bond rating downgraded by an investment bank, saw its stock drop by 3.88%, and Palantir Technologies fell by 3.56% [2] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Due to the weak private sector employment data, expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December have increased, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a decrease in the holding cost of gold [5] - International gold prices significantly rose, closing above $4,200 per ounce, marking a new high since October 21, with December gold futures closing at $4,213.6 per ounce, reflecting a 2.36% increase [5] Group 4: U.S. Treasury Auction Results - The auction results for the $42 billion 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds were disappointing, with a pre-issue yield of 4.068% and a stop yield of 4.074%, indicating a 0.6 basis point tail risk [8] - The indirect bidders, representing foreign central banks and international investors, accounted for 67% of the auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43, both below recent averages, suggesting weak demand for U.S. Treasuries, particularly from overseas [8] Group 5: European Market Overview - European stock indices collectively rose, driven by positive earnings reports from several listed companies, particularly in the energy, industrial, and technology sectors [11] - The UK stock market increased by 0.12%, France by 1.04%, and Germany by 1.22%. However, concerns over political instability in the UK led to a sell-off in UK government bonds, causing yields to rise above 5% [11] Group 6: Oil Market Trends - OPEC's monthly market report indicated an expected slight oversupply in the oil market by 2026, contrasting previous forecasts of prolonged supply shortages, which contributed to a significant drop in international oil prices [14] - As of the close, light crude oil futures for December settled at $58.49 per barrel, down 4.18%, while January Brent crude futures closed at $62.71 per barrel, down 3.76% [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to consolidate in a volatile manner. The OPEC monthly report confirmed an oversupply of 500,000 barrels per day in the global crude oil market in Q3 2025, which is different from the previous shortage forecast. The strengthening of refined oil products is reflected in both crack spreads and calendar spreads, while the calendar spreads of crude oil are gradually weakening. The rise in crude oil prices has not driven the chemical sector, and various chemical products are showing different trends [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The API data shows that the US crude oil inventory continued to build up last week, and the EIA short - term energy outlook report raised the forecast of US crude oil production. The OPEC monthly report adjusted its estimate of the global oil market from a deficit to a surplus. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price of asphalt is oscillating. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the calendar spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of fuel oil is oscillating. Pay attention to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the strength of refined oil products, low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. It is affected by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, but also faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution [13]. - **PX**: Market sentiment tends to be rational. Under the situation of strong supply and demand, the processing fee is strongly supported. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate slightly upwards [14]. - **PTA**: Market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term increase slows down, and it turns to range - bound consolidation [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port resumes inventory accumulation, and pure benzene runs weakly. The current upward driving force is insufficient, but the valuation is at a low level [16]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about inventory overflow, and styrene oscillates weakly. The pressure in November is mainly on the cost side of pure benzene [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot circulation is loose, and there are still production profits. The hope of reversing the downward trend in the short - term market is slim. The price will maintain a low - level range - bound operation [19]. - **Short - Fiber**: The market follows the "buy - on - dips" principle, and pay attention to the conversion between peak and off - peak seasons. The short - fiber price follows the upstream to oscillate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market performance is flat, and it passively follows the cost. The processing fee is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short - term [24]. - **Methanol**: The high - inventory reality suppresses, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol oscillates and consolidates. Wait for overseas disturbance information in the short - term [26]. - **Urea**: There is still an incremental production capacity, and the futures price is under pressure in the short - term. It is in a state of high - inventory suppression and coal - cost support, and pay attention to the implementation of export quotas and coal - price trends [26]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate declines, and plastic oscillates weakly. The fundamental support is limited, and the production pressure is large due to the increase in production capacity [28]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is still limited, and PP oscillates weakly. The inventory in the middle reaches is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and pay attention to the change and sustainability of maintenance [29]. - **PL**: The inventory needs time to be digested, and PL oscillates weakly. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm weakens, and the trading range changes little [30]. - **PVC**: Weak reality suppresses, and PVC oscillates weakly. The macro - level disturbance fades, and the fundamentals are under pressure [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.27 with a change of - 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 28 with a change of - 8 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Various varieties show different basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 43 with a change of 7, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Different inter - variety spreads also have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 136 with a change of - 47 [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only lists the names of various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring data. 3.3 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 12, 2025, shows that the commodity index is 2258.82 (+0.40%), the commodity 20 index is 2563.42 (+0.48%), the industrial products index is 2223.46 (+0.58%), and the PPI commodity index is 1344.72 (+0.44%) [280]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on November 12, 2025, has a current value of 1169.87, with a daily increase of 1.34%, a 5 - day increase of 0.97%, a 1 - month increase of 4.26%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.73% [281].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - PP shows both increasing supply and demand. Supply rises due to fewer maintenance shutdowns, and demand remains resilient in sectors like automotive and home appliances. However, there is a slight inventory build - up this week under the pressure of new production capacity. PE has weak supply and demand. Although unplanned maintenance eases supply pressure, imported goods are still abundant, and demand outside of agricultural films generally declines. There is overall insufficient support, and while inventory decreased this week, port inventory remains high. The cost side shows oil prices fluctuating and coal prices rising, with a slight improvement in PDH profits. High inventory and cost support continue to compete, and market expectations remain weak [2]. Methanol Industry - The Iranian gas restriction has been postponed. As of November 12th, Iran's shipments reached 430,000 tons, maintaining a relatively high level, putting significant pressure on the port methanol market. Prices and basis are weakly oscillating. In the inland market, Jiutai had an unexpected maintenance, but subsequent domestic production will continue to increase. Overseas gas restriction is less than expected. On the demand side, multiple MTO units reduced their loads due to profit reasons, and traditional downstream industries made rigid - demand purchases. The current market is trading under the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. The inventory contradiction of the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be traded before the Iranian gas restriction [6]. Natural Rubber Industry - On the supply side, there are still occasional rainfall disruptions in overseas production areas, but overall, the output during the peak season is expected to be strong, and raw material prices have some downward space. The domestic production area is gradually entering the production - reduction period, and domestic raw material prices are firm. On the demand side, some northern regions are gradually entering the off - season this month, market sales are slowing down, and most companies are digesting inventory and purchasing as needed. As the market gradually digests inventory, some companies made small - scale replenishments in the middle of the month. In summary, short - term macro fluctuations are large, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate. In the future, attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak - season of the main production areas and macro changes. If raw material supply is smooth, prices will be weak; if not, prices may be stable. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate around 15,000 - 15,500 [9]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Asian and domestic PX loads remain high. In the short - term, PTA load is maintained, and previous terminal and polyester demand has improved more than expected. With low polyester inventory, it is expected that the load will remain relatively high from November to December, and there is still support on the short - term PX demand side. However, the overall support from the cost side is limited due to the weak supply - demand outlook for crude oil. Recently, the market has been trading on the expectations of PTA anti - involution and tight mid - term PX supply - demand. PX has shown a strong trend. But the terminal demand is entering the off - season, and there are concentrated PTA device maintenance plans in November, so the PX supply - demand outlook is loose, and price drivers are limited. Strategically, PX may oscillate in the range of 6,200 - 6,800 in the short - term, and short - selling can be considered above 6,800 [10]. - **PTA**: There are still many PTA device maintenance plans in November. Terminal and polyester demand has improved more than expected, and with low polyester inventory, it is expected that the load will remain relatively high from November to December. The PTA supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance in November, but it is expected to be loose from February to the first quarter of next year. In terms of absolute price, the price driver is limited, and the support for PTA is limited. Although PTA - related stocks and absolute prices have been boosted by recent PTA production - cut rumors, the basis is still weakly operating. It is expected that the PTA rebound will be limited. Strategically, TA should be treated as oscillating in the range of 4,300 - 4,800 in the short - term, and short - selling on rallies is recommended; a rolling reverse spread for TA1 - 5 can be considered [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Recently, some coal - based ethylene glycol plants have undergone maintenance, but Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's plant is restarting, and previously shut - down coal - based plants are planned to restart in the middle and late part of the month. Domestic supply remains high, and North American ethylene glycol load has increased to a high level, with no reduction in Middle - East supply. November will see a concentrated arrival of overseas ethylene glycol shipments. Although the polyester load is maintained above 91%, the expected high inventory build - up from November to December puts pressure on ethylene glycol prices. Strategically, hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price of no less than 4,100 for EG2601; implement a reverse spread for EG1 - 5 on rallies [10]. - **Short - fiber**: Currently, short - fiber factories have low inventory levels and reasonable processing fees, so short - term supply remains relatively high. In terms of demand, there is an expectation of seasonal weakening in terminal demand in November. As raw material prices decline, short - fiber prices follow suit, and there has been some purchasing at low prices in the market. Overall, the short - term supply - demand pattern is still weak. Although there are expectations of PTA production cuts, the medium - term supply - demand weakness is difficult to change, and with the weak supply - demand outlook for upstream crude oil, price drivers are weak. It is expected that the rebound space for short - fiber is limited, and processing fees may be compressed. Strategically, the single - side strategy is the same as that for PTA; the processing fee on the futures market is expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 1,100, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - **Bottle chips**: In mid - November, there are both maintenance and restart of the Huarun plant. According to Longzhong Information, the commissioning of Dongying Fuhai's new plant has been postponed, so there is little change in domestic supply. Considering the off - season market demand in November, the demand for soft drinks and catering has declined slightly, and the demand side provides insufficient support for bottle chips. The supply - demand situation for bottle chips remains loose. Therefore, bottle - chip social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal inventory - build - up phase. PR will mainly fluctuate with the cost side, and processing fees will be less boosted by supply - demand and will change dynamically with raw material costs. Strategically, the single - side strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; the processing fee on the PR main - contract futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: Recently, there are new production capacities coming on - stream and plant restarts for pure benzene, and the import volume is expected to remain high. Although there are maintenance plans, overall supply may still be loose. On the demand side, some downstream industries are in the red, and the overall demand change is limited. Although the weekly inventory has decreased, the supply pressure remains. The overall supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is loose, and cost support is limited. Since the current valuation of pure benzene is low, future attention should be paid to plant changes. Strategically, BZ2603 has weak self - driving force and should be treated as short - selling on rallies following oil prices [11]. - **Styrene**: Two new styrene plants are operating stably, and previously shut - down plants have restarted, increasing production. There are still maintenance expectations in November, and overall supply may be maintained. The downstream EPS industry has entered the seasonal off - season, and due to high finished - product inventory, there are expectations of production cuts to maintain prices. Overall, the supply - demand outlook for styrene is in a tight balance, and price drivers are still insufficient. Attention should be paid to plant restarts, production cuts, and cost changes. Strategically, the price of EB12 should be treated as short - selling on rallies following cost changes [11]. LPG Industry - No overall view was provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工率 data were presented [13]. Crude Oil Industry - Previously, due to the expectation that the US government shutdown would end soon and the strong performance of European diesel under continuous sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US, oil prices rebounded. However, the weak supply - demand pattern of crude oil still limits the increase. Overnight, on one hand, both OPEC and EIA monthly reports raised oil production forecasts, increasing concerns about supply over - capacity; on the other hand, there are signs of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and the geopolitical premium has declined. Overnight, oil prices dropped significantly. Under the continuous pressure of OPEC+ to increase production, the supply - demand outlook for crude oil in the fourth quarter is weak, and oil prices face pressure on rebounds. In the short - term, a bearish view is taken. Attention should be paid to the actual sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US and the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine [16]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Industry Price and Spread - Futures prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all increased slightly on November 12th compared to November 11th. The spreads L15 and PP15 also increased. Spot prices of East - China PP raffia and North - China LLDPE rose, while North - China LL basis and East - China pp basis decreased [2]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 490,000 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.86% to 500,000 tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 0.81% to 600,000 tons, and trader inventory increased by 3.91% to 229,000 tons [2]. Operating Rate - PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.15% to 44.9%. PP device operating rate increased by 0.93% to 77.8%, PP powder operating rate decreased by 2.07% to 42.5%, and downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.0% to 53.1% [2]. Methanol Industry Price and Spread - Futures prices of MA2601 and MA2605 increased on November 12th compared to November 11th. MA15 spread and Taicang basis changed. Spot prices in Inner Mongolia North Line remained unchanged, while those in Henan Luoyang decreased slightly, and in Taicang port increased. Regional spreads also changed [4]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 4.44% to 369,250 tons, port inventory increased by 1.75% to 1.544 million tons, and social inventory increased by 0.49% [5]. Operating Rate - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09%, overseas upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 1.92% to 72.0%, Northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio increased by 5.57% to 103. Downstream, the operating rate of externally - sourced MTO units increased by 1.09% to 84.98%, formaldehyde operating rate increased by 0.23% to 30.0%, and MTBE operating rate increased by 0.80% to 70.2% [6]. Natural Rubber Industry Price and Spread - Spot prices of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber increased on November 12th compared to November 11th. The basis of whole - latex and non - standard price spread decreased. Cup - rubber and glue prices changed slightly [9]. Production and Consumption - September production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed, with Thailand and Indonesia decreasing and India increasing. September production in China increased. Tire production and export data also changed, with domestic tire production increasing and export volume decreasing [9]. Inventory - Bonded - area inventory increased by 0.40% to 449,455 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 8.80% to 48,586 tons [9]. Polyester Industry Price and Spread - Upstream prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and other raw materials changed. Downstream polyester product prices such as POY, FDY, and DTY also changed, along with their cash - flows. PX - related prices and spreads, PTA - related prices and spreads, and MEG - related prices and spreads all had fluctuations [10]. Inventory - MEG port inventory increased by 17.6% to 661,000 tons [10]. Operating Rate - China's PX operating rate increased by 2.8% to 89.8%, PTA operating rate decreased by 2.1% to 76.4%, MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 4.9% to 72.4%, and polyester comprehensive operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 91.3% [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Price and Spread - Upstream prices of CFR Northeast - Asia ethylene, CFR China pure benzene, etc. changed. Downstream styrene - related prices and spreads, and pure - benzene and styrene downstream cash - flows also had fluctuations [11]. Inventory - Styrene inventory in East - China ports and pure - benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased [11]. Operating Rate - The Asian pure - benzene operating rate remained unchanged at 78.8%, domestic hydro - benzene operating rate decreased by 3.4% to 55.7%, and downstream EPS operating rate decreased by 13.3% to 54.0% [11]. LPG Industry Price and Spread - Futures prices of PG2512, PG2601, etc. increased on November 12th compared to November 11th. Spreads such as PG12 - 01, PG12 - 02, etc. also increased. Spot prices in South - China and basis changed [13]. Inventory - LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.98% to 25.7%, port inventory decreased by 3.65% to 298,000 tons, and port storage capacity ratio decreased by 3.66% to 48.7% [13]. Operating Rate - Upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 2.31% to 78.64%, downstream PDH operating rate increased by 2.17% to 75.5%, MTBE operating rate increased by 0.84% to 68.6%, and alkylation operating rate decreased by 6.11% to 41.6% [13]. Crude Oil Industry Price and Spread - Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices changed on November 12th compared to November 11th. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, etc. also changed. Refined - oil prices and spreads, and refined - oil cracking spreads all had fluctuations [16].

Oil Market - The oil market is currently driven by supply and demand dynamics, with OPEC+ shifting from a deficit to a surplus situation [2] - A significant decline in oil prices is anticipated, with projections suggesting crude could drop into the 40s, which may negatively impact the energy sector in the coming months [3][4] - Despite short-term declines, long-term demand for oil is expected to persist for the next 25 years, indicating a continued need for fossil fuels [2][5] Energy Sector - The energy sector has been the top performer over the past week, month, and three months, outperforming technology [3] - Lower crude oil prices could lead to reduced gasoline prices in the U.S., potentially benefiting consumers and helping to combat inflation [4] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector is characterized as defensive, with strong performance noted over the past month, suggesting continued positive momentum [6] - Long-term charts for healthcare are not as favorable, but a defensive bounce is expected to continue into December [7] Commodity Market - Coffee prices have shown strength, with the Bloomberg commodity index reaching its highest level in over three years [9] - Recent comments regarding tariff reductions on coffee have caused short-term volatility, with coffee prices dropping about 5% [9] - Other commodities, including soybeans and grains, are also showing positive signs, indicating potential investment opportunities [10] Market Trends - There is a need for broader participation across sectors beyond technology for sustained market health [12] - Current market trends remain intact, but a lack of buying interest could pose challenges in the early part of the next year [13]

Legal Analysis - The U.S. Supreme Court's debate on the legality of "reciprocal tariffs" shows a 3:6 split, with 6 justices leaning towards declaring them illegal[2] - The likelihood of a ruling against reciprocal tariffs is increasing, but a delayed effect is probable, allowing the government time to adjust[2][10] - Possible outcomes include a ruling of illegality with a delay (45%-55% probability), partial illegality focusing on specific tariffs like fentanyl (20%-30% probability), or a ruling upholding their legality (10%-20% probability)[16][17] Economic Implications - If reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, U.S. tariff revenue could decline by 25%, potentially dropping from $3,412 billion to $2,554 billion[4][23] - Current tariff structure: reciprocal tariffs account for 45% of U.S. tariff revenue, with 301 tariffs at 18% and 232 tariffs at 17%[4][23] - The effective tariff rate for the U.S. is currently 9.75%, with the highest rate on Chinese imports at 40.4%[4][29] Political Response - Trump may pivot to existing tariff laws (Sections 232, 301, and 338) if reciprocal tariffs are invalidated, with a low probability of widespread tax refunds[3][20] - The likelihood of targeted tax refunds is higher, but broad automatic refunds are unlikely due to legal constraints[3][22] Market Reactions - Following the Supreme Court's deliberations, market expectations for tariff legality have shifted, impacting capital markets and trade policies[5][10] - The recent government shutdown affected 670,000 federal employees, with 1.52 million remaining on payroll, highlighting the political stakes involved[5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. The price center of the contract slightly moved up to around 15,200 yuan/ton, closing with a 0.56% increase at 15,220 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 80 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market has returned to a market dominated by supply - and - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,117 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,084 yuan/ton, closing with a 0.67% increase at 2,108 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 103 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol futures are dominated by weak supply - and - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 472.2 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 464.9 yuan/barrel, closing with a 1.58% increase at 469.1 yuan/barrel. The sharp rise in European diesel prices and the increasing expectation of winter heating demand have led to a recovery of optimism in the oil market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a 0.40% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.74% to 67,800 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 0.60% to 381,700 tons. In the week ending November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a 0.77 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 7.03 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.51 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 3% and year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000, and it is expected that the annual sales will exceed one million and may even reach 1.1 million [9][10]. - **Methanol**: In the week ending November 7, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.63%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9921 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,900 tons, and a significant increase of 96,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid decreased week - on - week, while the MTBE operating rate increased slightly. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 113 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 238 yuan/ton. The total methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2861 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,100 tons, and a significant increase of 251,800 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 386,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,000 tons, and a significant decrease of 34,900 tons compared with the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: In the week ending October 31, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 414, a week - on - week decrease of 6 and a decrease of 65 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.651 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.51 million barrels per day, reaching a historical high. The commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 5.202 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.49 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, increased slightly week - on - week, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory also increased slightly. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 86.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5 percentage points. The average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil increased significantly week - on - week but decreased significantly compared with the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds decreased significantly week - on - week but increased significantly compared with the October average [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 15,220 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,080 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | 2,108 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | - 28 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 429.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 469.1 yuan/barrel | +7.8 yuan/barrel | - 39.7 yuan/barrel | - 8.0 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts of rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19]. - **Methanol**: The report includes charts of methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][31]. - **Crude Oil**: The report includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank of China has released new signals regarding monetary policy, emphasizing the need to strengthen the foundation for economic recovery and to implement a moderately loose monetary policy while enhancing the monetary policy framework [1][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank's report indicates that the domestic economic recovery requires further support and consolidation [1]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions and improving the execution and transmission of monetary policy [6]. - The central bank aims to deepen financial reforms and enhance high-level opening-up to build a robust monetary policy system [1][6]. Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - In the oil market, SC futures rose by 2.11% due to concerns over winter fuel supply amid sanctions on Russia, while Saudi Arabia has lowered its official selling price for December [2][10]. - The dual焦 (coking coal and coke) market showed narrow fluctuations, with demand weakening as steel mill profitability dropped below 40% [2][18]. - The European container shipping index (EC) fell by 1.87%, driven by Maersk's price adjustments, indicating weaker-than-expected pricing momentum for the peak season [3][23]. Group 3: Industry News - In October, China's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% of total vehicle sales for the first time, reaching 51.6%, with significant year-on-year growth [7]. - The U.S. announced a suspension of export control rules for a year, which may impact related companies and their operations [5]. Group 4: Financial Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 index increasing by 0.21% [8][9]. - The 10-year government bond yield fell to 1.804%, reflecting a cautious market environment amid ongoing economic uncertainties [9]. Group 5: Agricultural and Commodity Trends - The soybean meal market is expected to remain weak due to a lack of supply adjustments, while the corn market shows slight upward movement [19][20]. - The cotton market is experiencing a range-bound trend as new crop supplies increase, but demand is weakening [22]. Group 6: Shipping and Logistics - The shipping market is facing pressure with an oversupply of capacity expected in the coming months, limiting the potential for price increases [3][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal, with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait to see OPEC's export price - support willingness and suggest short - term observation [2]. - For methanol, domestic production has increased, imports have risen, and supply pressure has grown. Demand is weak, with enterprise and port inventories high. The weak reality remains, and it's recommended to wait and see as chasing short after a sharp decline has low cost - effectiveness and there is no driving force for long positions [3]. - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack drivers, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see as the price has limited upside and downside space [6]. - For rubber, adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak, with expected inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are poor, and it's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [15][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room to repair upwards. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [20]. - For polyethylene, the price may remain in low - level consolidation as the cost may have bottomed, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [23]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the cost - side supply glut situation changes in the first quarter of next year [26]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in November, with valuation at a neutral level and mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [30]. - For PTA, it is expected to accumulate inventory in November, with limited processing fees. It may follow PX and crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for it to strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [30][32]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, with valuation under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.30% decline, at 458.80 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In Fujeirah Port, gasoline, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased, while diesel inventory decreased [1]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait to see OPEC's export price - support willingness and suggest short - term observation [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Taicang and Inner Mongolia prices were stable, Lunan increased by 10 yuan, the 01 contract on the disk decreased by 19 yuan to 2082 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 22. The 1 - 5 spread was - 5, at - 112 [2]. - **Strategy**: Domestic production has increased, imports have risen, and supply pressure has grown. Demand is weak, with enterprise and port inventories high. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: Shandong's spot price decreased by 10 yuan, Henan and Hubei were stable. The 01 contract on the disk decreased by 20 yuan to 1640 yuan, and the basis was - 30. The 1 - 5 spread was - 5, at - 77 [5]. - **Strategy**: Prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack drivers, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices rebounded, but the stock market and coking coal, a leading variety, declined. There are different views from bulls and bears. As of November 6, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.45%. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.6 tons, increasing by 1.7 tons [10][11][12]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 42 yuan to 4572 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4510 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 62 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 296 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 80.8%, with the calcium carbide method at 81.2% and the ethylene method at 79.7%. Demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.6%. Factory inventory was 33.5 tons, and social inventory was 104 tons [14]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong and demand is weak, with expected inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are poor, and it's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [15][17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price also decreased, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 66.94%, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.37 tons to 17.93 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79% [19]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room to repair upwards. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6865 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was 105 yuan/ton, strengthening by 57 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.43%, and the weekly inventory of production enterprises and traders increased [22]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in low - level consolidation as the cost may have bottomed, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6429 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6530 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 101 yuan/ton, strengthening by 51 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.94%, and the weekly inventory of production enterprises and traders increased, while port inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy**: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the cost - side supply glut situation changes in the first quarter of next year [26]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract decreased by 96 yuan to 6756 yuan, and PX CFR decreased by 7 dollars to 821 dollars. The basis was - 50 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 18 yuan. China's PX load was 89.8%, and Asia's was 80.2%. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted. PTA load was 76.4%. In early November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.5 tons, and the inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in November, with valuation at a neutral level and mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [30]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 56 yuan to 4648 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 4600 yuan. The basis was - 77 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan. PTA load was 76.4%, and the downstream load was 91.5%. The terminal draw - texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. The social inventory at the end of October was 220.7 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory in November, with limited processing fees. It may follow PX and crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for it to strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [30][32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract decreased by 78 yuan to 3875 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 22 yuan to 3981 yuan. The basis was 68 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 91 yuan. The supply - side load was 72.4%, and the downstream load was 91.5%. The terminal draw - texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. The port inventory was 66.1 tons, an increase of 9.9 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, with valuation under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [34].