1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The investment in secondary and perpetual bonds (referred to as "two - eternal bonds") in the current bond market has reached the fourth stage. Since 2024, two - eternal bonds have become amplifiers of interest rate fluctuations. The report focuses on analyzing the institutional behavior patterns of two - eternal bonds and attempts to discover effective signals [2][15]. - Different types of institutions have different allocation patterns for two - eternal bonds. For example, banks act as stabilizers in the bond market, while securities firms have high - frequency trading, funds are the main buyers, and other institutions have their own preferences [5][6]. - It is difficult to use the institutional behavior of two - eternal bonds to predict interest rate trends, but it can help investors understand the market's expectation of whether interest rates can continue to decline. The report constructs investment sentiment measurement indicators for the trading desks of two - eternal bonds to assist investors in observation [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Why Focus on the Institutional Behavior of Two - eternal Bonds? - The investment in two - eternal bonds has gone through four stages. Since 2024, they have become amplifiers of interest rate fluctuations. The report aims to analyze their institutional behavior patterns and find effective signals [2][15]. - The report discusses three types of bonds (secondary capital bonds, perpetual bonds, and ordinary financial bonds) and six types of investors (banks, securities firms, funds, wealth management, insurance, and others). Different investors' term preferences are mainly concentrated in 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y, and the trading volume of two - eternal bonds over 5Y declines significantly [3][15]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior Patterns of Two - eternal Bonds 3.2.1 Banks Still Act as Stabilizers in the Bond Market - Since the second half of 2024, commercial banks have increased the trading volume of 1Y/3Y secondary capital bonds and continuously net - sold 5Y secondary capital bonds. For perpetual bonds, the trading volume of 1Y/3Y is small, and 5Y is significantly net - sold. For ordinary financial bonds, the trading volume in the 3Y term is the largest, and they are mostly net - sold, except for increasing allocation during bond market corrections [5][16]. 3.2.2 Securities Firms Have High - Frequency Band - trading of Two - eternal Bonds - Securities firms show obvious trading - desk characteristics in the trading of two - eternal bonds, frequently switching between buying and selling with a relatively large scale. They have a high preference for 1Y/3Y/5Y two - eternal bonds and ordinary financial bonds [5][21]. 3.2.3 Funds Are the Main Buyers of Two - eternal Bonds - Funds tend to make trend - based allocations to two - eternal bonds. They continuously buy during bull markets and sell significantly during bear markets, driving market trends. In recent years, with the overall decline in the interest rates of two - eternal bonds, funds have shown a trend of increasing allocation [5][30]. 3.2.4 The Institutional Behavior Characteristics of Wealth Management in Two - eternal Bonds Are Diverse - In most periods, the trading characteristics of wealth management in two - eternal bonds are not obvious, showing an overall allocation trend. At some points, they take profits during bull markets, buy during bear markets, and continue to buy during volatile markets [5][37]. 3.2.5 Insurance Also Acts as a Stabilizer in the Bond Market - Insurance institutions generally net - sell two - eternal bonds but increase allocation during market corrections, acting as stabilizers [5][46]. 3.2.6 Other Types of Institutions Prefer to Continuously Allocate 5Y Two - eternal Bonds - Other types of institutions have a greater preference for continuously allocating 5Y two - eternal bonds [6][52]. 3.3 How to Use the Institutional Behavior Patterns of Two - eternal Bonds? - It is relatively difficult to use the institutional behavior of two - eternal bonds to predict interest rate trends due to factors such as the synchronicity of institutional behavior indicators, less trading data, and data delays [7][61]. - However, the institutional behavior of two - eternal bonds can help investors understand the market's expectation of whether interest rates can continue to decline. When investors expect interest rates to continue to decline, the trading desks of two - eternal bonds will continue to buy, compressing the spread. When the expectation weakens, the buying power will decrease [7][61]. - The report constructs investment sentiment measurement indicators for the trading desks of two - eternal bonds, which are the smoothed overall purchases of funds and securities firms in 5Y secondary capital bonds and 5Y perpetual bonds. When these indicators decline significantly and approach zero, it indicates that the trading desks are less optimistic about buying two - eternal bonds for capital gains. This year, there were two such time points in January 15th and late April, corresponding to subsequent bond market corrections or fluctuations [8][62].

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Insurance's stock experienced a significant decline of 2.03% on July 16, indicating potential concerns among investors regarding the company's performance and market position [1]. Company Overview - Xinhua Life Insurance Co., Ltd. was established in 1996 and is headquartered in Beijing, primarily engaged in the insurance industry. The company has a registered capital of 3.12 billion RMB [1]. - The legal representative of Xinhua Insurance is Yang Yucheng [1]. Shareholder Activity - Huatai-PineBridge Fund's Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is among the top ten shareholders of Xinhua Insurance, having reduced its holdings in the second quarter of this year [1]. - The fund has reported a year-to-date return of 3.73%, ranking 2052 out of 3426 in its category [1][2]. Fund Performance - The performance metrics for the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF show a weekly increase of 0.78%, a monthly increase of 4.85%, and a quarterly increase of 8.33% [2]. - The fund's year-to-date performance is 3.73%, which is below the average of its peers at 7.42% [2]. Fund Management - The fund manager for Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is Liu Jun, who has extensive experience in fund management, having joined Huatai-PineBridge in 2004 and managed various funds since then [4][5]. - Liu Jun has a master's degree in financial management from Fudan University and has held multiple positions within the company, demonstrating a strong background in investment management [4][5].

Group 1: Fund Market Trends - Over 130 funds have been liquidated this year, continuing the trend of "normalization of liquidation" seen in the past two years, with popular thematic funds like dividend and pharmaceutical funds also facing pressure [1] - The number of funds focusing on dividend assets has surged, with nearly 40 new funds established this year, reflecting a strong demand for long-term capital in the market [1][2] Group 2: Banking Sector Developments - Commercial banks have issued approximately 894.6 billion yuan in perpetual bonds this year, with 57 issues recorded, indicating a significant increase in capital replenishment efforts [1] - The issuance of these bonds is seen as a way to enhance the stability of operations amid declining profitability and limited internal capital retention [1] Group 3: A-Share Market Performance - As of July 15, 1494 A-share companies have disclosed mid-year profit forecasts, with 417 companies expecting a net profit growth rate exceeding 100% [2] - Among these, Muyuan Foods anticipates the highest profit growth rate of 973.39%, driven by increased pig sales and reduced costs [2] Group 4: Low-altitude Economy - Various regions are actively developing low-altitude economy applications, with new scenarios emerging for drone logistics and tourism, indicating a shift from niche trials to broader commercial applications [2] Group 5: Engineering Machinery Sales - In June 2025, forklift sales reached 137,570 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, with domestic sales up by 27.3% [3] Group 6: Corporate Leadership Changes - Renault Group appointed Duncan Minto as interim CEO, effective July 15, while he continues to serve as the Chief Financial Officer [5] Group 7: Payment License Developments - China Insurance Group's payment subsidiary voluntarily withdrew its payment license, which was acquired for 400 million yuan less than four years ago [6] Group 8: Biopharmaceutical Collaboration - China Biopharmaceutical confirmed that its collaboration with Merck on a dual-specific antibody is progressing normally, with a milestone payment of 300 million USD expected upon completion of technology transfer [6] Group 9: Oil and Gas Exploration - China National Offshore Oil Corporation achieved a significant breakthrough in deep metamorphic rock exploration in the South China Sea, with a well producing 400 barrels of oil and 165,000 cubic feet of gas per day [8] Group 10: Stock Market Movements - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.18% while the Dow Jones fell by 0.98%, influenced by inflation data and ongoing tariff concerns [9]

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" aims to unify standards for green financial products, enhancing efficiency and guiding financial resources towards green and low-carbon projects [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Green Finance Growth - As of May, China's green, inclusive, pension, and digital loans grew by 27.4%, 11.2%, 38%, and 9.5% year-on-year, respectively, all exceeding the growth rate of other loans [1] - Over 1 trillion yuan in green and technology-related bonds were issued in the first half of 2025 [1] New Categories in the Directory - The new directory introduces two major categories: green trade and green consumption, focusing on low-carbon sectors [2][3] - Green trade includes efficient energy equipment, advanced transportation equipment, and green agricultural products, while green consumption covers electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances [2][3] Impact on Financial Institutions - The directory provides a clear framework for banks to identify and manage green credit projects, enhancing the classification of green assets and guiding the development of green financial products [6][7] - Financial institutions can use the directory to support green bonds and ESG investments, ensuring compliance and effective project selection [6][7] Support for High-Carbon Industries - The directory outlines pathways for high-carbon industries like steel and petrochemicals to transition through clean production and process optimization [10][11] - It emphasizes the importance of third-party services for technical consulting and carbon management to lower transformation costs [10][11] International Alignment - The directory aligns with international standards, enhancing the comparability of China's green finance initiatives with global practices [12][13] - It aims to improve the international influence of China's green finance by addressing long-standing discrepancies in project identification standards [11][12] Expansion of Project Types - The directory expands the number of supported projects significantly, with 271 items listed, reflecting the latest trends in China's green economy [9][11] - It removes 11 fossil fuel-related projects, reinforcing the focus on sustainable practices [9][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term liquidity depends on central bank's injections. Investors can maintain duration and seize opportunities from falling interest rates [2]. - In mid - July, there are both positive and negative factors for the liquidity. The key variable is the central bank's roll - over of outright reverse repos. DR007 is likely to fluctuate between 1.40% - 1.50%. There are few negative factors for the bond market. If there is a tightening trend in liquidity, a further decline in large banks' lending volume should be observed first [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review: Is There a Tightening Trend in Liquidity? - **Yield Curve**: Yields of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds generally increased. For treasury bonds, 1Y yield rose 3bp, 3Y and 5Y rose 4bp, 7Y rose 3bp, 10Y rose about 3bp, 15Y and 30Y rose 2bp. For China Development Bank bonds, 1Y yield rose about 4bp, 3Y rose 4bp, 5Y rose about 6bp, 7Y and 10Y rose 3bp, 15Y rose 2bp, and 30Y changed less than 1bp [13]. - **Term Spread**: The spread between treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds increased. For treasury bonds, the short - term spread narrowed and the long - term spread widened. For China Development Bank bonds, the short - term spread was divided, and the medium - and long - term spread narrowed [16]. 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Liquidity - **Leverage Ratio**: It dropped to 107.3%. From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the leverage ratio decreased continuously during the week. As of July 11th, it was about 107.3%, down 0.69pct from last Friday and 0.58pct from this Monday [20]. - **Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase**: The average daily turnover of pledged repurchase this week was 8.2 trillion yuan, with an average overnight proportion of 89.57%. From July 7th to July 11th, the average daily turnover was 8.2 trillion yuan, up 0.61 trillion yuan from last week. The average overnight turnover was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.55 trillion yuan month - on - month, and the average overnight proportion was 89.57%, down 0.14pct month - on - month [26][27]. - **Liquidity**: Banks' lending volume continued to decline. From July 7th to July 11th, the lending volume of the banking system decreased. On July 11th, large banks and policy banks' net lending was 4.65 trillion yuan; joint - stock banks and urban and rural commercial banks' average daily net lending was 0.66 trillion yuan, and on July 11th, they had a net inflow of 0.91 trillion yuan. The banking system's net lending was 3.74 trillion yuan [31]. 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: It dropped to 2.87 years. From July 7th to July 11th, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.87 years (de - leveraged) and 3.21 years (leveraged). On July 11th, the median duration (de - leveraged) was 2.87 years, down 0.01 year from last Friday; the median duration (leveraged) was 3.21 years, up 0.04 year from last Friday [45]. - **Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds**: It rose to 3.93 years. Among different types of bond funds, the median duration (leveraged) of interest - rate bond funds rose to 3.93 years, up 0.02 year from last Friday; the median duration (leveraged) of credit bond funds rose to 2.98 years, up 0.01 year from last Friday; the median duration (de - leveraged) of interest - rate bond funds was 3.55 years, up 0.09 year from last Friday; the median duration (de - leveraged) of credit bond funds was 2.73 years, down 0.02 year from last Friday [48]. 3.4 Category Strategy Comparison - **China - US Yield Spread**: It generally widened. The 1Y spread widened 3bp, 2Y widened 7bp, 3Y widened 6bp, 5Y widened 5bp, 7Y widened 3bp, 10Y widened about 3bp, and 30Y widened 2bp [52]. - **Implied Tax Rate**: The short - term spread widened, and the long - term spread narrowed. As of July 11th, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds widened 1bp for 1Y, changed less than 1bp for 3Y, widened 2bp for 5Y, widened 1bp for 7Y and 10Y, changed less than 1bp for 15Y, and narrowed 2bp for 30Y [53]. 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balance On July 11th, the concentration of lending for active 10Y treasury bonds, active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, second - active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and active 30Y treasury bonds showed an upward trend, while the concentration of second - active 10Y treasury bonds showed a downward trend. For all institutions, it showed an upward trend [56].

Core Insights - Cash management products are gaining investor attention due to their flexible redemption, lower risk, and relatively stable returns, especially as bank deposit rates decline [1][2] - The average 7-day annualized yield for cash management products is 1.38%, with some bank products reaching nearly 3%, while money market funds average around 1.25% [2] - Regulatory policies have aligned the liquidity and redemption mechanisms of cash management products and money market funds, narrowing the gap in risk and return [2][4] Group 1 - Cash management products include cash management wealth management and money market funds, suitable for low-risk tolerance and high liquidity needs [2] - Investors should prioritize products from large institutions, considering factors like yield, redemption mechanisms, and fees [1][2] - High-yield cash management products may have small initial scales and could see yields drop as more funds are added [1] Group 2 - The liquidity design of cash management products, including subscription and redemption confirmation days, is crucial for investors [4] - Significant yield differences between products only become apparent with larger investment amounts, suggesting that investors should consider recent yield performance [4] - To enhance overall investment returns, investors should balance their portfolios across various asset classes like stocks, bonds, and gold based on their risk preferences [4]

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Insurance's stock closed down 2.23% on July 9, indicating market concerns about the company's performance and investor sentiment [1]. Company Overview - Xinhua Life Insurance Co., Ltd. was established in 1996 and is based in Beijing, primarily engaged in the insurance industry [1]. - The registered capital of the company is 311,954.66 million RMB, with Yang Yucheng as the legal representative [1]. Shareholder Activity - Huatai-PineBridge Fund's Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is among the top ten shareholders of Xinhua Insurance, having reduced its holdings in the first quarter of this year [1]. - The year-to-date return for the fund is 2.93%, ranking 1999 out of 3426 in its category [1][2]. Fund Performance - The fund's performance over various periods is as follows: - 1-week increase: 1.48% - 1-month increase: 3.99% - 3-month increase: 10.74% - 6-month increase: 6.84% - Year-to-date increase: 2.93% [2]. - The average performance of similar funds and the CSI 300 index is also provided for comparison, indicating that the fund's performance is below the average in some time frames [2]. Fund Management - The fund manager of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is Liu Jun, who has extensive experience in fund management since joining Huatai-PineBridge in 2004 [4][5]. - Liu Jun has managed various funds and has held significant positions within the company, contributing to its investment strategies [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced new measures to enhance the interconnection between mainland and Hong Kong financial markets, further solidifying Hong Kong's status as an international financial center and a hub for offshore RMB business [1][2]. Group 1: New Measures for Financial Market Interconnection - The PBOC is optimizing the "Southbound Bond Connect" mechanism to facilitate more domestic investors in accessing the offshore bond market, expanding the range of eligible investors to include securities firms, funds, insurance companies, and wealth management institutions [1]. - The offshore repurchase business mechanism under the Bond Connect will be optimized to enhance liquidity management for foreign investors, allowing for a broader range of tradable currencies including USD, EUR, and HKD, and simplifying operational processes [2][3]. - The "Swap Connect" mechanism will be improved to better meet investors' interest rate risk management needs, with plans to expand the number of quoting firms and adjust daily trading limits [2]. Group 2: Implementation Timeline and Specifics - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has announced that the optimized measures for offshore RMB bond repurchase will officially start on August 25, 2025, which includes allowing collateral bonds to be reused during the repurchase period and supporting foreign currency settlements [2][3].

Company Movements - Douyin has launched a new regulation prohibiting minors under 16 years old from live streaming, and those aged 16 to 18 must obtain written consent from parents or guardians to broadcast [5] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's M&A Review Committee approved China Shipbuilding's share swap merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, marking the completion of the largest absorption merger in A-shares in nearly a decade before the registration with the CSRC [5] - Ping An Life announced it continues to increase its stake in Postal Savings Bank's H-shares, surpassing 13% ownership [6] - Saily Medical reported significant uncertainty regarding the success of its therapeutic hypertension vaccine project trial [6] - Jilin Jin Kong and its concerted actions plan to acquire all issued shares of Jilin's first rural commercial bank, which intends to delist from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6] Industry News - The second batch of new floating rate funds has been officially submitted, with multiple fund companies including E Fund, Huatai-PB, and others applying for both market-wide and industry-specific products [4] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges revised the ETF risk management guidelines, requiring fund managers to enhance the management of ETF subscription and redemption lists [4] - New regulations for algorithmic trading will take effect on July 7, with recent rumors about high-frequency trading frequency changes being denied by several quantitative private equity firms [4] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has established a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy, focusing on development planning, market regulation, and safety supervision [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on the photovoltaic industry to address low-price competition and guide capacity optimization, with industry leaders supporting policy directions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tension between Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Trump regarding interest rate policies, highlighting the potential for upcoming rate cuts amid political pressures and economic data fluctuations. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Powell asserts that not lowering interest rates is appropriate, despite Trump's demand for a 2-3 percentage point cut [1] - The probability of a July rate cut is only 21%, while September's likelihood has surged to over 90% [3] - The Fed's dot plot reveals a split among decision-makers, with 7 out of 19 opposing any rate cuts this year, while 8 support two cuts [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and income dropped by 0.4%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [3] - The conflicting signals of rising inflation and weak consumption have led to heightened expectations for multiple rate cuts this year [3] Group 3: Political Pressures - Trump's threats to appoint a new Fed chair who supports rate cuts create a challenging environment for Powell, who emphasizes the Fed's independence [7] - The potential for Trump to announce a new Fed chair nomination as early as September raises concerns about the Fed's autonomy [4] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement to terminate trade negotiations with Canada, the S&P 500 index experienced a sudden drop, reflecting the market's sensitivity to political developments [8] - Concurrently, news of potential tariff cancellations on China signals a thaw in U.S.-China trade relations, positively impacting tech and shipping stocks [9] Group 5: Global Economic Implications - Trump's secretive efforts to lift sanctions on Iran could lead to significant shifts in oil prices, depending on the U.S. administration's future actions [11] - The influx of 21.825 billion yuan into China's capital market from newly raised floating-rate funds indicates a positive trend for A-shares, providing much-needed liquidity [12]