Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the basic chemical industry is expected to see a slight year-on-year decline in performance for the first half of 2025, but sub-industries such as fluorine chemicals and pesticides are performing well, with fluorine chemicals' net profit attributable to the parent company doubling year-on-year [1] - The phosphate chemical leading enterprises are achieving considerable profits due to upstream resource layout, while the urea industry is expected to improve in prosperity due to limited new supply and potential export opportunities [1] - The pesticide industry is experiencing a recovery in prosperity, with the price of glyphosate continuing to rise, limited new capacity on the supply side, and stable demand [1] Group 2 - In the chemical fiber sector, the new capacity of polyester filament is concentrated in leading enterprises, leading to an increase in industry concentration and a potential recovery in prosperity [1] - Overall, the chemical industry is gradually recovering, and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to promote the elimination of backward production capacity and optimize the industry structure [1] - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a sub-sector chemical index (000813), which selects representative securities from sub-industries such as pesticides, fertilizers, coatings, and plastics to reflect the overall performance and development trends of listed companies in China's chemical industry [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental situation will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have room for growth. It is a good opportunity for left - hand side layout [2]. - For methanol, the short - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but the downside space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the price is expected to move within a range at a low valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to going long at low prices [6]. - For rubber, it is advisable to maintain a bullish view in the medium - term. In the short - term, it is expected that the rubber price will be strong, and a bullish approach is recommended, buying on dips and exiting quickly [12]. - For PVC, given the situation of strong domestic supply, weak demand, and high valuation, and the weakening export expectation, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [14]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover in the long - term. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long - term [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. - For PX, the valuation has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to follow the crude oil and look for long - buying opportunities on dips after the peak season arrives [23][24]. - For PTA, it is recommended to follow PX and look for long - buying opportunities on dips after the peak - season downstream performance improves [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the mid - term valuation has a downward pressure [26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 10.80 yuan/barrel, a 2.20% decline, at 481.00 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG weekly oil product data showed inventory increases in gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil products [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 68.00 yuan/ton, a 2.40% decline, at 2760.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 113.00 yuan/ton, a 3.21% decline, at 3412.00 yuan/ton [1]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: On September 4, the 01 contract fell 4 yuan/ton to 2378 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 8 yuan/ton with a basis of - 133. Domestic production has further increased, and coal prices have slightly declined. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high level, and the import pressure remains. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and the profit has continuously improved, but the traditional demand is still weak [4]. - **Urea**: On September 4, the 01 contract remained stable at 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat with a basis of - 14. The enterprise profit has further declined, the supply - side production has significantly decreased, and the demand is weak. The port inventory has continued to increase [6]. - **Rubber**: NR and RU fluctuated strongly. Due to heavy rain in Thailand in the next 2 - 10 days, the risk of floods has significantly increased, and the rubber price is likely to rise. As of September 5, 2025, the operating load of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 58.70%, down 4.08 percentage points from last week and 0.22 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 69.07%, down 5.5 percentage points from last week and 9.60 percentage points from the same period last year [9][11]. - **PVC**: The PVC01 contract rose 5 yuan to 4883 yuan. The cost side remained stable, the overall PVC operating rate was 76%, a 1.6% decline. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a 0.1% decline. The factory inventory was 31.2 (+0.6) million tons, and the social inventory was 89.6 (+4.4) million tons [14]. - **Styrene**: The spot price increased, and the futures price decreased, with the basis strengthening. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. The port inventory has continued to increase significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread is expected to recover, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory starts to decline [16][18]. - **Polyethylene**: The futures price decreased. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The supply - side has only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is decreasing from a high level. The downstream average operating rate is 40.5%, a 0.20% increase [20]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price decreased. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with relatively high pressure. The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [21]. - **PX**: The PX11 contract fell 130 yuan to 6680 yuan. The PX load in China was 83.3%, a 1.3% decline; the Asian load was 75.6%, a 0.7% decline. The PTA load was 72.8%, a 2.4% increase. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 376,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2,000 tons [23]. - **PTA**: The PTA01 contract fell 76 yuan to 4656 yuan. The PTA load was 72.8%, a 2.4% increase. The downstream load was 91%, a 0.7% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 29 was 2.12 million tons, a decrease of 84,000 tons [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The EG01 contract rose 26 yuan to 4357 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 74.1%, a 1% decline. The downstream load was 91%, a 0.7% increase. The port inventory was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons [26].

Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX supply is expected to increase due to the restart of maintenance devices and good short - process benefits. Demand has some support but limited upside. PX11 is under observation, with support around 6600 and attention on oil price trends [2]. - PTA supply - demand is near a tight balance in September. Although the device maintenance execution is not as expected, the low absolute price is supported, but the driving force is limited. TA is under observation, paying attention to the support around 4600 and oil price trends [2]. - Ethylene glycol has a "strong reality, weak expectation" supply - demand pattern. Short - term futures have limited downside, but the fourth - quarter supply - demand is weak. Attention is paid to the support of EG2601 around 4300 [2]. - Short - fiber supply - demand is expected to improve in September, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows raw material fluctuations, with the disk processing fee oscillating between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip supply and procurement may both decrease in September, with inventory expected to increase. PR follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the processing fee has limited upside [2]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices fell due to weak demand and high - supply pressure. Domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and export demand is also under pressure. The market supply is sufficient, and the futures price may be under pressure. Attention is paid to the recovery of industrial demand in North China after the parade [8]. Methanol Industry - Methanol supply is expected to increase with the return of inland maintenance devices and high - level imports in September. Traditional downstream demand is weak. The market is under pressure due to significant inventory accumulation, and attention is paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [10][11][12]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about increased OPEC+ supply in the fourth quarter. The disk may run weakly, with support levels for WTI at [62, 63], Brent at [65, 66], and SC at [470, 480]. Options can wait for opportunities to expand after increased volatility [19]. Polyolefin Industry - PE supply pressure is relatively limited in the short - term, and PP shows a "supply - demand double - increase" situation. Downstream industry开工率 has increased, but new orders have limited support. In September, the market shows a "supply - decrease, demand - increase" pattern, and it is recommended to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [23]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda market is supported by rigid demand, with low inventory in Shandong. The spot price may remain firm, and the disk callback space is limited. Attention is paid to downstream purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [48]. - PVC supply - demand remains oversupplied. Supply is expected to increase in September, while demand remains weak. It is expected to continue weak and volatile, with cost - end support [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, while demand support is weak. Short - term absolute price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited if oil prices do not fall deeply [53]. - Styrene supply is high in the short - term, with weak driving force. However, there is an expectation of supply - demand improvement later. EB10 can be lightly long at low positions, and mainly short on rebounds later [53]. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, WTI crude oil (October) was at 63.97 dollars/barrel, down 1.62 dollars or 2.5% from the previous day. Various polyester product prices and spreads changed, such as PTA, MEG, and different polyester fiber prices [2]. - **Inventory and Expected Arrival**: MEG port inventory was 44.9 million tons on September 1, down 10.2% from August 25, and the expected arrival was 4.4 million tons, up 122.7% [2]. - **Industry开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 75.6% on August 29, down 0.7% from August 22; PTA开工率 was 70.4%, down 1.2% [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 3, the 01 - contract futures price was 1714 yuan/ton, down 1.83% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [7][8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output was 18.80 million tons on September 5, down 0.93% from September 4. Factory inventory increased slightly, and order days decreased [8]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, MA2601 closed at 2382 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous day. There were also changes in various price spreads and regional price differences [10]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 34.1083%, up 2.31%; port inventory was 142.8 million tons, up 9.88% [11]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 72.19% on Thursday, down 1.12% from the previous value; downstream MTO device开工率 was 78.56%, up 2.13% [12]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 4, Brent was at 67.39 dollars/barrel, down 0.31% from the previous day; WTI was at 63.75 dollars/barrel, down 0.34% [19]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB was at 200.90 cents/gallon on September 4, down 0.15% from the previous day. Refined oil cracking spreads had different changes [19]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, L2601 closed at 7247 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous day. There were also changes in price spreads and basis [23]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE enterprise inventory on Wednesday was 45.1 million tons, up 5.57%; PP装置开工率 on Thursday was 80.2%, up 2.6% [23]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent - to - 100% price was 2718.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. PVC prices and price spreads also had changes [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 85.4% on August 29, down 0.8% from August 22; PVC total开工率 was 73.3%, down 2.3% [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, CFR China pure benzene was at 734 dollars/ton, up 0.8% from the previous day. Styrene - related prices and spreads also changed [53]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 1.10 million tons on September 1, up 8.0% from August 25; domestic pure benzene开工率 was 79.2% on August 29, up 0.2% from August 22 [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. The fundamentals will support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [6]. - For methanol, supply pressure is increasing, the market is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [3]. - Regarding urea, it is currently in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers, with limited downside space. It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic situation is one of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover in the long - term. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. - For PX, although there is currently a lack of upward drivers, the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and there is support at the lower end of the valuation. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the peak season [23]. - For PTA, the supply has shifted from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and the demand side is improving. It is recommended to follow PX and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is still in excess, and there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium - term [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 3.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.69%, at 493.20 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oils, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.04%, at 2840.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 30.00 yuan/ton, or 0.85%, at 3512.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Data**: According to the US EIA weekly data, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57%; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.19%; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.60%; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 2382 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 132 [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic production has further increased, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Import arrivals have increased, and port inventories have accumulated to a high level [3]. - **Demand**: The profit of port MTO has continued to improve, but demand is weak. Traditional demand has not improved significantly, and overall downstream performance is average [3]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract fell 32 yuan/ton to 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of - 14. The futures price broke through the support level on Wednesday, while the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [5]. - **Supply**: The number of maintenance devices has increased, domestic production has decreased, and short - term supply pressure has been relieved. However, enterprise profits are still at a medium - low level [5]. - **Demand**: The production of compound fertilizers has peaked and declined, and domestic agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Exports have increased, and port inventories have risen rapidly. Currently, demand is mainly concentrated in exports [5]. - **Inventory**: Although domestic supply has decreased, demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level compared to the same period last year [5]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [8]. - **Factor Analysis**: Due to heavy rain in Thailand in the next 2 - 10 days, the risk of floods has increased, which may cause the rubber price to rise. Bulls believe that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may limit rubber production growth, the seasonal pattern usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - economic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected [8][9]. - **Industry Data**: As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.78%, 1.76 percentage points lower than the previous week and 3.95 percentage points higher than the same period last year. All - steel tire exports were good. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.57%, 0.19 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.06 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The downstream inventory of semi - steel tire factories was slow to consume. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 126.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.5% from the previous month. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. China's total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 46.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. As of August 31, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 47.34 (- 0.36) million tons [11]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14880 (+ 30) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1830 (+ 0) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1840 (+ 5) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9400 (+ 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11650 (0) yuan [12]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 10 yuan to 4878 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 198 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 294 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Cost**: The cost side remained stable, with the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai at 2300 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke at 660 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene at 840 (0) US dollars/ton. The spot price of caustic soda was 870 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 76%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 77.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, and the operating rate of the ethylene method was 73%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% [15]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [15]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 31.2 million tons (+ 0.6), and social inventory was 89.6 million tons (+ 4.4) [15]. - **Strategy**: In the domestic situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook and poor fundamentals, it is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [17]. - **Factor Analysis**: Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. The production of pure benzene has been fluctuating at a moderate level, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and styrene production has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has been rising [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of styrene was 7000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7040 yuan/ton, an increase of 106 yuan/ton; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a weakening of 156 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 127.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 344.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton; the spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton; the upstream operating rate was 78.1%, a decrease of 0.40%; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 19.65 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons; the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 43.84%, an increase of 0.24%; the operating rate of PS was 59.90%, an increase of 2.40%, the operating rate of EPS was 58.35%, a decrease of 2.63%, and the operating rate of ABS was 70.80%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [20]. - **Factor Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support on the cost side. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory has decreased from a high level, providing support for the price. The seasonal peak season may be approaching, and the procurement of raw materials for agricultural films has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7247 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 3 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 45.08 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The LL1 - 5 spread was 7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 1 yuan/ton [20]. - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [21]. - **Factor Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, resulting in relatively high supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 6954 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, a weakening of 11 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 55 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.30 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons, and the port inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.18 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The LL - PP spread was 293 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 16 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. 3.8 Polyester 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract fell 24 yuan to 6810 yuan, the PX CFR price fell 3 US dollars to 843 US dollars, the basis was 99 yuan (+ 1) after conversion at the RMB central parity rate, and the 11 - 1 spread was 48 yuan (- 4) [23]. - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 83.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%, and the operating rate in Asia was 75.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. There were few changes in domestic plants [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of PTA was 70.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. Some PTA plants had maintenance or unexpected shutdowns, while others were in the process of restarting or commissioning [23]. - **Import**: In August, South Korea exported 37.6 million tons of PX to China, an increase of 0.2 million tons compared to the same period last year [23]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory was 389.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24 million tons [23]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 246 US dollars (- 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 94 US dollars (- 3) [23]. - **，**: Currently, the PX operating rate remains high, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA plants, with the overall operating rate at a low level. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory levels, and the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, providing support for the valuation at the lower end. However, due to the lack of upward drivers currently and the reduction in the amount of unexpected PTA maintenance compared to previous expectations, the PXN has limited upward momentum. The valuation is currently at a moderate level, and the terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].