Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits, and making left - hand bets on the September Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - related supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [3]. - Methanol is affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment and may face price correction pressure. The upstream supply pressure is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices [5]. - Urea's price is affected by sentiment. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is advisable to pay attention to long positions at low prices [7]. - For rubber, due to the peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia, the supply concern sentiment may decline. The price has a large correction. It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term and consider a long - short band operation for different contracts [9][11]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. Although it is strong in the short - term, there is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term as the BZN spread is expected to be repaired [13]. - The price of polyethylene may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - The price of polypropylene is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. - PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. - The fundamental situation of ethylene glycol is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.91, or 2.94%, to $66.98; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.01, or 2.94%, to $70.4; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.40 yuan, or 0.45%, to 527 yuan [2]. - **Data**: In China, weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.96 million barrels to 91.93 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 102.07 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.26 million barrels to 194.00 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 115 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 91 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 [5]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment, the price may decline. The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 1738 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [7]. - **Analysis**: Affected by sentiment, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU had a large correction [9]. - **Analysis**: The peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. The price has a large decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 224 yuan to 5149 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5100 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 164) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 128 (- 15) yuan/ton [11]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is expected to be repaired, and the price is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 172 yuan to 6890 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 23 dollars to 851 dollars [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 124 yuan to 4812 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 95 yuan to 4800 yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: It may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 109 yuan to 4436 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 83 yuan to 4499 yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report Core Views - The pure benzene market has limited self - driving factors due to high port inventory and poor price transmission to downstream sectors, and its short - term trend fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. The styrene market also has a weak supply - demand outlook and increasing port inventory, with limited rebound space under the influence of market sentiment [24]. - The PX market is supported by domestic macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but considering cost and inventory factors, short - term short - selling strategies can be considered. The PTA market may see short - term improvement but has a weak medium - term outlook. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be near balance in August [28][29]. - The methanol market has a strong inventory build - up expectation in August, and with low MTO profits and weak downstream demand, but the short - term influence of the macro - environment is significant, and MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [32]. - The caustic soda market may see stable prices in the short - term, and the PVC market has a supply - exceeding - demand situation, but both are strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [42]. - The polyolefin market is currently strengthened by policies and cost factors, but the real supply - demand situation is weak. In August, there is an increased inventory build - up pressure, and the PP can be considered for short - selling [46]. - The crude oil market is in a range - bound state due to the balance between supply - expansion expectations and macro - sentiment. Short - term trading can follow a band - trading strategy [49]. - The urea market is in a supply - exceeding - demand situation, with the futures market under pressure. It will remain in a range - bound state until there is a substantial improvement in demand [54]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; WTI crude (September) was at $65.16/barrel, down $0.87 (-1.3%); CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China pure benzene increased $14 (1.9%) to $765/ton [21]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, styrene East - China spot was at 7580 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; EB futures 2508 was at 7403 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan (1.0%); EB cash - flow (non - integrated) increased 34 yuan (19.0%) to 215 yuan/ton [22]. - **Downstream Cash - flows**: On July 25, phenol cash - flow was - 709 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan (8.4%) from July 24; aniline cash - flow decreased 104 yuan (-517.1%) to 84 yuan/ton [23]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 21, pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 17.10 million tons, up 0.70 million tons (4.3%) from July 14; the domestic pure benzene utilization rate was 76.6%, down 1.5% (-1.9%) from July 17 [24]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China PX increased $18 (2.1%) to $874/ton [28]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, PTA East - China spot price was 4895 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; TA futures 2509 was at 4936 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan (1.8%); PTA spot processing fee decreased 19 yuan (-9.5%) to 183 yuan/ton [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MEG East - China spot price was 4582 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan (1.1%) from July 24; EG futures 2509 was at 4545 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (1.3%); MEG import profit increased 7 yuan (-9.6%) to - 60 yuan/ton [28]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MA2601 closed at 2587 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan (2.01%) from July 22; the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 438 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (2.94%) [32]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, methanol enterprise inventory was 33.983%, down 1.3% (-3.55%) from the previous value; the upstream domestic enterprise utilization rate was 70.37%, down 2.3% (-3.16%) from the previous value [32]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 24; East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 5160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan (1.4%) [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of July 18, the caustic soda industry utilization rate was 86.3%, up 1.1% (1.3%) from July 11; the PVC total utilization rate was 75.0%, down 0.1% (-0.1%) [39]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, liquid caustic soda's East - China factory inventory was 21.3, up 2.6 (13.8%) from July 10; PVC's total social inventory was 41.1 million tons, up 1.8 million tons (4.7%) [42]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, L2601 closed at 7504 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan (0.91%) from July 24; the price of East - China LDPE was 9475 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.26%) [46]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, PE enterprise inventory was 49.3, up 5.47 (12.48%) from the previous value; the PE device utilization rate was 77.8%, down 1.67% (-2.10%) from the previous value [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, Brent was at $68.25/barrel, up $0.02 (0.16%) from July 25; WTI was at $65.25/barrel, up $0.09 (0.14%); the Brent - WTI spread was $3.30, up $0.02 (0.61%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, NYM RBOB was 209.73 cents/gallon, up 0.03 cents (0.01%) from July 25; ICE Gasoil was $705.00/ton, down $10.25 (-1.43%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: On July 28, the US gasoline cracking spread was $22.84/barrel, down $1.01 (-4.23%) from July 25; the European diesel cracking spread was $29.73/barrel, down $3.17 (-9.64%) [49]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, the 01 contract of urea futures closed at 1807, up 11 (0.61%) from July 24; the spread between the 01 contract and the 05 contract was - 15, down 7 (-87.50%) [53]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, the domestic urea daily output was 19.27, up 0.24 (1.26%) from July 24; the domestic urea plant - level inventory was 85.88, down 3.67 (-4.10%) from the previous week's value [53][55].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the expected implementation of a new round of stable growth work plans in key industries, including petrochemicals, which will promote structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release specific work plans for ten key industries, focusing on optimizing supply and eliminating backward production capacity [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to accelerate the supply-side reform in the chemical industry, particularly in sub-industries such as refining, PTA/PX, fertilizers, pigments, organic silicon/industrial silicon, soda ash, and chlor-alkali/PVC [2] Group 2 - In the refining sector, strict control of production capacity and low operating rates of local refineries are expected to improve the profitability of major refineries [3] - As of July 17, the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong was only 47.31%, indicating a historical low, which is expected to maintain due to the peak demand trend for refined oil [3] - The government aims to keep domestic crude oil processing capacity below 1 billion tons by 2025, with a target utilization rate of over 80% for major products [3] Group 3 - The urea industry is projected to see a gradual reduction in supply, which, combined with potential export opportunities, is expected to improve industry conditions [5] - By 2025, the new urea production capacity is estimated to be 4.93 million tons, accounting for only 6.5% of the current total capacity of 76.07 million tons, indicating limited future supply growth [5] Group 4 - The demand for soda ash and PVC is expected to recover due to increased infrastructure needs, with significant new production capacities planned for 2025-2026 [6] - The planned new soda ash capacity for 2025-2026 is 8.68 million tons, representing 20% of the total capacity in 2024, while the PVC capacity increase is projected to be 5 million tons, or 17% of the 2024 total capacity [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is likely to facilitate ongoing supply-side reforms in the soda ash and PVC industries, leading to improved supply conditions and increased industry concentration [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A short-term target price of $70.4 per barrel for WTI is set, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips and left-side ambushes for Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruption seasons in September when oil prices plunge [2]. - For methanol, short-term prices are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment. As sentiment cools, prices may face downward pressure. Fundamentally, supply pressure will increase marginally, and demand may weaken, so methanol may face correction pressure. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money call options at high prices [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has declined, and enterprise profits have recovered but remain at a low level. Demand is weak, but exports are an important demand increment. Overall, supply and demand are weak, and it is advisable to focus on long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, prices are likely to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to build positions opportunistically in the medium term, wait and see in the short term, and conduct opportunistic band operations on going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [12]. - For PVC, the current supply is strong, demand is weak, and valuations are high. The fundamental situation is poor, but it is currently strong due to supply reduction expectations and the rebound of the black building materials sector. However, there is a risk of a significant decline when sentiment fades [12]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [14]. - For polyethylene, the short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward trends to high maintenance boosting inventory depletion. Prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [17]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand during the off-season, macro expectations will dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in July [18]. - For PX, the current load remains high, downstream PTA maintenance seasons have ended, and inventory levels are low. With the recovery of polyester and terminal operations, there is little negative feedback pressure on PX in the short term. New PTA devices are planned to be put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory [21]. - For PTA, supply is expected to continue to increase inventory, and processing fees have limited room for operation. However, due to low inventory levels and the recovery of downstream prosperity, the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to follow PX and go long on dips [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply side has increased, and downstream operations have recovered, but the height is still low. Port inventory depletion is expected to slow down. Valuations are relatively high year-on-year, and the fundamental situation has changed from strong to weak. There is short-term pressure on valuations to decline [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI crude oil futures fell $1.09, or 1.65%, to $65.07 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell $0.97, or 1.40%, to $68.39 per barrel; INE crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan, or 0.46%, to 529.4 yuan per barrel [1]. - **European ARA Data**: Gasoline inventories increased by 0.09 million barrels to 10.15 million barrels, a 0.91% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 13.07 million barrels, a 0.45% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.17 million barrels to 6.34 million barrels, a 2.54% decrease; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.34 million barrels to 5.08 million barrels, a 6.31% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.49 million barrels to 5.87 million barrels, a 7.68% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 40.50 million barrels, a 2.32% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 25, the 09 contract rose 38 yuan/ton to 2541 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of -53 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream production has bottomed out and rebounded, and enterprise profits are still good. Supply pressure will increase marginally. The MTO profit has declined again, port operations remain stable, and traditional demand is still in the off-season. The market will gradually shift to a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 25, the 09 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 1792 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of -2 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has continued to decline, and enterprise profits have recovered but remain at a low level. The compound fertilizer production has rebounded slowly, demand is weak, and finished product inventories are relatively high. Exports are continuing, and port inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: On the night of July 25, NR and RU had significant corrections [9]. - **Supply Situation**: Frictions between Thailand and Cambodia are being negotiated, which may reduce supply concerns [9]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 20, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.47% from the previous period; the total inventory of dark rubber was 79.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.23%; the total inventory of light rubber was 49.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.85%. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory was 50.56 (-0.19) million tons [11]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Rubber prices are likely to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to build positions opportunistically in the medium term, wait and see in the short term, and conduct opportunistic band operations on going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 135 yuan to 5373 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 5160 (+70) yuan/ton, the basis was -213 (-65) yuan/ton, and the 9-1 spread was -113 (+1) yuan/ton [12]. - **Cost Side**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2225 (-25) yuan/ton, the price of medium-grade semi-coke was 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 820 (0) US dollars/ton. The price of calcium carbide decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda was 830 (0) yuan/ton [12]. - **Production Situation**: The overall PVC operating rate was 76.8%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.3%, a decrease of 0.5%; the ethylene method was 70.3%, a decrease of 1.7%. The overall downstream demand operating rate was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.8%. Factory inventories were 35.7 million tons (-1), and social inventories were 68.3 million tons (+2.6) [12]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening [13]. - **Market Expectations**: The market is looking forward to the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of the month, with a warming macro sentiment and a rising black sector. The cost side still has support. The BZN spread is currently at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward repair space [14]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply of pure benzene has decreased slightly, but the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the production of styrene has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased significantly. During the off-season, the overall operating rate of the three S industries has fluctuated and increased [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The spot price of polyethylene increased, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: Trader inventories are oscillating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. During the off-season, agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level, and the overall operating rate is oscillating downward [17]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward trends to high maintenance boosting inventory depletion. With the commissioning of the Huizhou ExxonMobil ethylene plant in July, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [18]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal return of propylene supply. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. During the off-season, with weak supply and demand, macro expectations will dominate the market [18]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected that polypropylene prices will fluctuate strongly in July [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 106 yuan to 7062 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 18 US dollars to 874 US dollars. The basis was 133 yuan (+46), and the 9-1 spread was 112 yuan (+4) [20]. - **Load Situation**: China's PX load was 79.9%, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous period; Asia's load was 72.9%, a decrease of 0.7%. Sheng Hong further reduced its load due to upstream device failures, Tianjin Petrochemical was under maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical increased its load. The PTA load was 79.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous period [20]. - **Import and Inventory Situation**: From mid to early July, South Korea exported 23.8 million tons of PX to China, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 million tons. The inventory at the end of May was 434.6 million tons, a decrease of 16.5 million tons from the previous month [20][21]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 280 US dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 74 US dollars (+10). The current PX load remains high, but the PTA maintenance season has also ended, and the load level is high, with low inventory levels. With the recovery of polyester and terminal operations, there is little negative feedback pressure on PX in the short term. New PTA devices are planned to be put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The current valuation is at a neutral level [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 86 yuan to 4936 yuan, the East China spot price rose 80 yuan to 4895 yuan, the basis was -8 yuan (-8), and the 9-1 spread was 18 yuan (-8) [22]. - **Load Situation**: The PTA load was 79.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The downstream load was 88.7%, an increase of 0.4%. The terminal texturing load increased by 6% to 67%, and the loom load increased by 3% to 59% [22]. - **Inventory Situation**: On July 18, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 218.9 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons from the previous period [22]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 19 yuan to 175 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 16 yuan to 303 yuan. Supply is expected to continue to increase inventory, and processing fees have limited room for operation. However, due to low inventory levels and the recovery of downstream prosperity, the negative feedback pressure is small. The PXN is expected to be supported and rise following the improvement of the pattern brought by the commissioning of new PTA devices [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 60 yuan to 4545 yuan, the East China spot price rose 52 yuan to 4582 yuan, the basis was 50 yuan (-8), and the 9-1 spread was 2 yuan (+5) [23]. - **Supply Situation**: The ethylene glycol load was 68.4%, an increase of 2.2% from the previous period; among them, the syngas method was 74.4%, an increase of 4.2%; the ethylene method load was 64.7%, an increase of 0.9%. Some syngas-based devices restarted, some oil-based devices increased their loads, and some devices switched from EO to EG production. Overseas, the Sharq devices in Saudi Arabia's Jubail region all restarted, and the US Lotte was under maintenance [23]. - **Demand Situation**: The downstream load was 88.7%, an increase of 0.4%. The terminal texturing load increased by 6% to 67%, and the loom load increased by 3% to 59% [23]. - **Import and Inventory Situation**: The import arrival forecast was 15.7 million tons, and the East China departure volume on July 24 was 1.1 million tons, with an increase in outbound volume. Port inventories were 53.3 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons [23]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha-based production profit was -305 yuan, the domestic ethylene-based production profit was -462 yuan, and the coal-based production profit was 976 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 820 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit-mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 580 yuan [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the chemical and coal industries, discussing the impact of government policies and market dynamics on various sectors within these industries [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Chemical Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is conducting assessments of outdated production capacity, particularly in Hunan, where the lifespan has been reduced to 20 years. This could lead to significant elimination of outdated capacity in the chemical sector, enhancing market confidence in future profit reversals [1][2]. - In the soda ash industry, natural soda ash is expected to increase its market share to 60% due to environmental advantages, aiding in price recovery. Companies to watch include Yuanxing Energy and Zhongyan Chemical [1][2]. - The urea industry has an operating rate exceeding 80%, with about 30% of old facilities over 20 years old. The elimination of outdated capacity is expected to benefit supply-demand balance, with a focus on companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Hubei Yihua [1][2]. - Glyphosate and glufosinate prices are showing signs of bottoming out, driven by low overseas inventory and seasonal demand peaks. Domestic and international companies are voluntarily halting production, which may lead to price increases. Key companies include Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Lier Chemical [1][3]. - The organic silicon sector is experiencing strong demand, with DMC apparent demand growth exceeding 20% year-on-year from January to May. The industry operating rate is around 70%, and if this growth continues, rates may exceed 80% in the second half of the year. Companies to monitor include Xin'an Chemical and Xingfa Group [1][3]. Coal Industry - The coal industry is responding to overproduction issues through regulatory measures. A recent document from the Energy Bureau indicates that production exceeding approved capacities will be scrutinized, marking the beginning of a "de-involution" phase aimed at reducing excessive competition and improving resource utilization [4][5]. - The coal market has seen a relatively loose supply-demand balance this year, with prices declining until a slight rebound in late June due to seasonal demand. The current price range of 600-650 RMB/ton is seen as a price floor, with expectations that further declines are unlikely [5][7][8]. - The policies implemented are primarily focused on managing production rather than capacity, similar to past measures taken to address severe oversupply issues. The current market is not in a state of excess, with overproduction mainly observed in Xinjiang [6]. Construction Materials Industry - The construction materials sector is experiencing a "de-involution" phenomenon, characterized by overcapacity leading to intensified price competition. Companies are collaborating to limit production and stabilize prices, particularly in the cement and glass industries [9][10]. - The future focus for the cement industry includes strict enforcement of production limits and carbon emission management, with expectations for stricter policies starting in 2026 [12]. Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market is facing significant internal competition, with production costs varying widely. Prices have dropped from a peak of 600,000 RMB/ton to a low of 60,000 RMB/ton, leading to many hard rock lithium mines operating at a loss. The government aims to increase self-sufficiency in strategic resources, which may lead to supply-side adjustments [15][16]. - Companies to watch in the current market environment include Zhongkuang Resources, which is expected to stabilize its business valuation as prices recover. Other companies with lighter historical burdens, like Shenxinfu, are also worth monitoring [17]. Other Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the chemical and coal industries is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for price recovery and improved profitability as outdated capacities are phased out and regulatory measures take effect [1][2][4][8]. - The construction materials sector is anticipated to benefit from economic recovery and demand rebound, presenting potential investment opportunities [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, methanol, urea, rubber, PVC, styrene, polyolefins, and polyester. It believes that in the context of low Cushing inventories, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum, but the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. For other products, it provides specific analyses based on factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory, and gives corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.74, or 1.13%, to $66.16; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.69, or 1.00%, to $69.36; INE main crude oil futures rose 6.60 yuan, or 1.27%, to 527 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.74 million barrels to 12.97 million barrels, a 6.02% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 1.19 million barrels to 7.87 million barrels, a 13.15% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.31 million barrels to 23.70 million barrels, a 1.34% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 44.54 million barrels, a 0.32% decrease [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Given the low Cushing inventories, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the 09 contract rose 69 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 48 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15 [4]. - **Analysis**: The market is significantly driven by news, with increased volatility and operational difficulty. The upstream operating rate continues to decline, and profits have slightly decreased but remain at a relatively high level. Overseas plant operating rates have returned to medium - high levels, and market fluctuations have narrowed. The port olefin load has increased this week, while traditional demand is in the off - season, with the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid decreasing and those of chlorides and MTBE increasing. The overall demand is weak. After the methanol price decline, downstream profits have been repaired but remain at a low level, and the methanol spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside is expected to be limited. The domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the 09 contract rose 12 yuan/ton to 1785 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 15 [6]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the deepening of the domestic anti - involution policy, the domestic industrial products have risen sharply, and urea has also increased significantly. However, most fixed - bed plants have completed technological upgrades, and it is mainly affected by short - term sentiment. The domestic operating rate has slightly decreased, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The compound fertilizer operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the subsequent operating rate will continue to increase, which will support the demand for urea. Export containerization continues, and port inventories continue to rise. The domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. Currently, the urea valuation is neutral to low, and the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips and not to chase the market when the price rises [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: After continuous rises, NR and RU showed volatile trends, and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has weakened [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts, the seasonal trend usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [15]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Rubber prices are likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view should be maintained, and positions should be built at appropriate times. In the short term, due to the large increase, the risk of a pullback should be guarded against. A neutral approach is recommended, with quick entry and exit. There is an opportunity to increase positions in the spread operation of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 87 yuan to 5238 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5090 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 148 (-67) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, the overall PVC operating rate has increased, the downstream operating rate has decreased, factory inventories have decreased, and social inventories have increased. Corporate profits have continued to improve, the number of maintenance operations has gradually decreased, and production is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of plants will be put into operation. The domestic downstream operating rate is at a five - year low and is still in the off - season. The anti - dumping extension in India has marginally improved the pessimistic expectations, and the cost support has weakened. The pessimistic expectations in the fundamentals have improved due to the extension of the anti - dumping in India, but there are still pressures in supply - demand and valuation. In the short term, the price is strong under the stimulation of the anti - dumping extension and anti - involution sentiment, and the risk of sentiment fading should be guarded against [13]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [15]. - **Analysis**: After the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the China Iron and Steel Association issued statements on the anti - involution policy, the coal sector rose and then stabilized, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The bullish view is based on demand expectations and production cut expectations, while the bearish view is based on the falsification of demand. The cost side of pure benzene has increased its operating rate, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply - side profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased significantly. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has fluctuated and increased. In the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price is expected to follow the cost side [15][17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [19]. - **Analysis**: The black sector rose and then stabilized, and the cost side still has support. The polyethylene spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories are fluctuating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. In the seasonal off - season, the demand - side agricultural film orders are fluctuating at a low level, and the overall operating rate is declining. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - driven downward trend to the high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. With the commissioning of the Huizhou ExxonMobil ethylene plant in July, the polyethylene price is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [20]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal return of propylene supply. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. In the seasonal off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the polypropylene price is expected to be bearish in July [20]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 96 yuan to 6956 yuan, the PX CFR rose 14 dollars to 856 dollars, the basis was 87 (+16) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 108 (+24) yuan [22]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA maintenance season is also over, and the load level is high. The processing fee has been repaired, and the inventory level is low. Even though the polyester and terminal sectors are in the off - season, the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil price [22][23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 66 yuan to 4850 yuan, the East China spot price rose 5 yuan to 4815 yuan, the basis was 0 (-2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+22) yuan [24]. - **Analysis**: The PTA load remains unchanged. The downstream load has increased. The social inventory has increased. The spot processing fee has decreased, and the futures processing fee has increased. In the future, the supply - side maintenance volume in July is small, and new plants will be put into operation, with expected continuous inventory accumulation. The PTA processing fee repair space is limited. The demand side is under pressure in the off - season. Due to the low inventory level and the repair of the processing fee, the upward negative feedback pressure is expected to be small. The PXN has support under the pattern improvement brought about by PTA commissioning. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX [24]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 49 yuan to 4485 yuan, the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 4530 yuan, the basis was 58 (-4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 3 (-3) yuan [25]. - **Analysis**: The supply - side load has increased, the downstream load has increased, the import arrival forecast is 15.7 million tons, the East China departure volume on July 23 was 0.8 million tons, and the warehouse - out volume has increased. The port inventory has decreased by 2 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit is - 279 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit is - 556 yuan, and the coal - based production profit is 955 yuan. The cost side of ethylene remains unchanged, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines has increased. The overseas and domestic maintenance plants are gradually starting, and the downstream operating rate is continuously declining due to the off - season. The port inventory reduction is expected to gradually slow down. The valuation is relatively high compared to the same period. The maintenance season is gradually ending, and the fundamentals are changing from strong to weak. However, recently, under the consistent weak expectations, the actual operating rate has exceeded expectations. The unexpected situation of Saudi plants has led to a decrease in import expectations, and multiple domestic plants have had unexpected situations, combined with the low arrival volume, resulting in a reduction in low - level inventories. The short - term valuation has upward support [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The market saw double destocking in both inland and ports. Reasons include slower port unloading and improved MTO profits leading to port purchases. Inland prices fluctuated slightly, with high maintenance losses in July and复产 expectations later. Demand was restricted by the traditional off - season, and new capacity launches affected the market. In ports, the basis strengthened, and with the return of Iranian production, imports were expected to be 1.25 million tons in July and decline slightly in August. MTO maintenance was uncertain after profit repair [1]. - **Urea**: The market was in a state of 'strong expectation vs. weak reality'. The potential for large - scale and long - term maintenance in major production areas was a potential positive factor, but demand was in a lull. The market was mainly affected by the contradiction between supply contraction expectations and weak actual demand, and policy sentiment also had an impact. Future price breakthroughs depend on substantial improvement in demand [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved slightly, but with high import expectations and port inventory, its own driving force was limited. Short - term trends may be under pressure. For styrene, the supply - demand outlook was weak, port inventory increased, and the basis weakened. Short - term trends may also be under pressure [18]. - **Polyolefins**: In terms of valuation, marginal profits were gradually recovering, but supply and demand for PP and PE both contracted, and inventories accumulated while demand remained weak. In the dynamic dimension, PP maintenance reached its peak, PE maintenance first increased and then decreased, and imports were still scarce. There was a seasonal improvement in demand at the end of July. Strategically, the market sentiment was warm, with PP expected to fluctuate weakly and PE to be bought within a range [22]. - **Crude Oil**: Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to the structural contradiction between crude oil destocking and macro - level suppression of long - term demand. Although EIA data showed a large reduction in crude oil inventory, the inventory structure was differentiated. The market was also concerned about tariff frictions, which restricted the upward space of oil prices. Short - term trends were likely to maintain a weak oscillation [25]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, although supply was generally stable, demand support was limited, and short - term trends may be under pressure. PTA supply - demand was expected to be weak, and short - term trends may also face pressure. MEG supply - demand was expected to improve in the short term, with support at the bottom. Short - fiber supply and demand were both weak, and the absolute price fluctuated with raw materials. Bottle - chip supply - demand showed some improvement, but absolute prices still followed raw materials [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, but high profits led to high production. Downstream non - aluminum demand was in a relative off - season, but there was phased restocking. Short - term macro - level disturbances increased trading risks, and it was recommended to take profits on previous long positions. For PVC, the market was in a season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with no significant improvement in fundamentals. Short - term trading was mainly affected by macro - level sentiment, and it was recommended to wait and see [47]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased, while the MA91 spread and some regional spreads changed. Spot prices in different regions also showed various fluctuations [1]. - **Inventory**: Middle - sized methanol enterprises' inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all decreased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates had different changes [1]. Urea - **Futures**: Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, and contract spreads changed [9][10]. - **Positions**: Long and short positions of the top 20 decreased, and the long - short ratio slightly increased [11]. - **Raw Materials and Spot**: Some upstream raw material prices were stable, while spot prices in different regions showed small fluctuations [12]. - **Downstream Products**: Prices of some downstream products were stable, and the fertilizer market also had price changes [14][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, plant operating rates, and inventory levels had different changes [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices, and prices of related products such as CFR Japan naphtha and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed. Spreads between products also changed [18]. - **Styrene - Related**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and related spreads and cash flows changed [18]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased, and industry operating rates had different trends [18]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot**: Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, and spot prices in different regions also declined. Spreads and basis also changed [22]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, and inventory levels in different sectors increased [22]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices and related spreads changed [25]. - **Refined Oil**: Refined oil prices, spreads, and cracking spreads had different fluctuations [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream raw material prices such as Brent crude oil and PX changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also showed various trends [29]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: MEG port inventory and arrival expectations, and industry operating rates in different segments had different changes [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures**: Spot and futures prices of PVC and caustic soda changed, and spreads and basis also had different trends [47]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side operating rates and profit levels, and demand - side downstream operating rates and inventory levels had different changes [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits [2]. - For methanol, the current market is significantly driven by news, with increased volatility and higher operational difficulty. It is advisable to observe more and act less. The subsequent domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [4]. - Regarding urea, the domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also constrained by high supply. Currently, the valuation of urea is neutral to low, and it is more inclined to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view should be maintained, and positions should be built at an appropriate time. In the short term, due to the large increase, it is necessary to guard against the risk of a pullback. A neutral approach with quick entry and exit is recommended [11]. - For PVC, the pessimistic fundamental expectations have improved due to the postponement of Indian anti - dumping, but there are still pressures on supply - demand and valuation. In the short term, the price is strong under the stimulation of anti - dumping postponement and anti - involution sentiment, and the risk of sentiment reversal should be guarded against [13]. - For benzene, the short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price of benzene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction. The price of polyethylene is expected to remain in a downward oscillation [18]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the price of polypropylene in July is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA maintenance season is also over, with a relatively high load level. The processing fee has been repaired, and the inventory level is low. In the short term, the negative feedback pressure from the polyester and terminal sectors is small, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil [21][23]. - For PTA, in the subsequent period, the supply side is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the room for PTA processing fee repair is limited. The demand side is under continuous pressure during the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation has changed from strong to weak, but in the short term, the valuation has upward support due to lower - than - expected imports and domestic plant accidents [25]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, 2025, the front - month WTI crude oil futures closed down $0.94, or 1.42%, at $65.42; the front - month Brent crude oil futures closed unchanged at $68.67; the front - month INE crude oil futures closed up 5.70 yuan, or 1.11%, at 520.4 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: According to the US EIA weekly data, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.17 million barrels to 418.99 million barrels, a 0.75% decrease; SPR inventories increased by 0.20 million barrels to 402.50 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.74 million barrels to 231.13 million barrels, a 0.75% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 2.93 million barrels to 109.90 million barrels, a 2.74% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.09 million barrels to 20.23 million barrels, a 0.47% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.69 million barrels to 45.50 million barrels, a 1.54% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 23, the 09 contract fell 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of +6 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate continued to decline, and the profit decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. Overseas plant operating rates returned to medium - high levels, and the market's reaction to overseas supply disruptions ended, with market fluctuations narrowing. The port olefin load increased this week, while the traditional demand was in the off - season, with the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid declining and those of chlorides and MTBE increasing. Overall, the demand was weak. After the methanol price decline, the downstream profit was repaired but remained at a relatively low level. The methanol spot valuation was still high, and the upside was limited in the off - season [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +3 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level, with the cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The compound fertilizer operating rate bottomed out and rebounded, entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, and the subsequent operating rate will continue to increase, supporting the demand for urea. The export container collection continued, and the port inventory continued to rise. The subsequent demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU showed a sideways movement after continuous increases, and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market weakened [8]. - **Industry Data**: As of July 17, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.08%, up 0.54 percentage points from the previous week and 12.19 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 75.62%, up 3.07 percentage points from the previous week and 3.12 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of July 13, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.295 million tons, a 0.18 - million - ton increase, or a 0.14% increase; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 797,000 tons, a 0.8% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 498,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease. As of July 20, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 505,600 (-19,000) tons [9][10]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,600 (-100) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,795 (-10) dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,800 (-5) dollars; butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9,650 (-50) yuan; and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11,600 (-100) yuan [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PVC09 contract fell 109 yuan to 5,151 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5,070 (-10) yuan/ton, the basis was -81 (+99) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was -118 (-4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost and Operating Rates**: The cost side remained stable, with the calcium carbide price in Wuhai at 2,250 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price at 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price at 820 (0) dollars/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.6%, a 0.6% increase; the calcium carbide method operating rate was 79.7%, a 0.5% increase; the ethylene method operating rate was 72%, a 0.9% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 40.1%, a 1% decrease. The in - plant inventory was 368,000 (-14,000) tons, and the social inventory was 657,000 (+34,000) tons [13]. Benzene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of benzene decreased, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large room for upward repair [15][16]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side: the operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was abundant. The supply side: the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the benzene operating rate continued to rise. The benzene port inventory increased significantly. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products increased [16]. Polyolefin Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The black sector showed a pull - back after a rise, and the cost side still provided support. The polyethylene spot price increased, and the PE valuation had limited downward space [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The trader inventory fluctuated at a high level, weakening the price support. In the seasonal off - season, the agricultural film orders were at a low level and fluctuated, and the overall operating rate decreased. In July, the ethylene plant of Huizhou ExxonMobil was put into operation, and the polyethylene price was expected to remain in a downward oscillation [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate was expected to gradually recover, with the propylene supply gradually returning [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In the demand side, the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the price of polypropylene in July was expected to be bearish [19]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PX09 contract fell 26 yuan to 6,860 yuan, the PX CFR fell 1 dollar to 842 dollars, the basis was 71 (+14) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 84 (-12) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PX load in China was 81.1%, a 0.2% decrease; the Asian load was 73.6%, unchanged. In terms of plants, Shenghong reduced its load due to a problem with the upstream plant, the overseas plant in Vietnam resumed operation, and Tianjin Petrochemical planned to shut down. The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged. In July, South Korea exported 238,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days, a 5,000 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of May was 4.346 million tons, a 165,000 - ton decrease from the previous month [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PTA09 contract fell 10 yuan to 4,784 yuan, the East China spot price rose 35 yuan to 4,810 yuan, the basis was 2 (0) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 4 (-6) yuan [24]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged. The downstream load was 88.3%, a 0.5% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 61%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 56%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 11 was 2.172 million tons, a 38,000 - ton increase [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the EG09 contract fell 11 yuan to 4,436 yuan, the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4,501 yuan, the basis was 62 (+2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 0 (+6) yuan [25]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side: the ethylene glycol load was 66.2%, a 1.4% decrease, with the synthetic gas - based load at 70.2%, a 2.9% decrease, and the ethylene - based load at 63.8%, a 0.4% decrease. The downstream load was 88.3%, a 0.5% decrease. The expected import arrival was 157,000 tons, and the departure from East China on July 22 was 5,000 tons, with the inventory out - flow increasing. The port inventory was 533,000 tons, a 20,000 - ton decrease [25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The futures market was boosted by relevant policies, and there are expectations for industry capacity reduction. The caustic soda spot market had average transactions, with prices in Shandong and Guangdong decreasing. Low - concentration caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The PVC spot market had light transactions, and the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions in caustic soda and temporarily observe for PVC [6]. Methanol - Inland prices fluctuated slightly. Supply had high maintenance losses in July but there are expectations of resumption. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season. At the port, the basis strengthened, overseas Iranian device production returned, and there will be inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to observe the market [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is less affected, but demand support is weak. PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, while ethylene glycol supply - demand is expected to improve in the short term. Short - fiber supply and demand are both weak, and bottle - chip supply - demand has improvement expectations but is still affected by high supply and inventory. Different strategies are recommended for each product [11]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to macro - pressure. The approaching US trade negotiation deadline and the lack of progress in negotiations have suppressed demand expectations. Although there are expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventory, trade tariff uncertainty is the core contradiction. It is recommended to adopt short - term band strategies [16]. Urea - The core driver of the urea futures market comes from macro - policies. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [24][25]. Polyolefins - The marginal profit of PP and PE is gradually recovering, and supply and demand are both contracting, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. At the end of July, demand is expected to pick up seasonally. It is recommended to be short - biased on PP and buy within the range for PE [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve slightly, but its own driving force is limited due to high import expectations and port inventory. Short - term pure benzene may be boosted but with limited rebound space. The supply - demand of styrene is marginally repaired but still weak, and its increase is limited. Different strategies are recommended for each [31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.2%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.8%. Futures prices generally rose, and basis and spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Supply**: From July 11 to July 18, the caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.3%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 2.0% [4]. - **Demand**: From July 11 to July 18, the alumina industry's operating rate increased by 1.0%, and the viscose staple fiber industry's operating rate increased by 8.7%. The operating rate of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased [5][6]. - **Inventory**: From July 10 to July 17, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the upstream factory inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory increased [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, and the basis and spreads changed. Regional spot prices also had different changes [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 1.28%, and the port and social inventories increased [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94%, and some downstream operating rates changed, such as the MTBE operating rate increasing by 3.46% [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha changed slightly. PX, PTA, and other prices and spreads also had corresponding adjustments [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of Asian and Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all had different degrees of change, and the comprehensive operating rate of polyester decreased by 0.5% [11]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 3.6% from July 14 to July 21 [11]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 23, compared with July 22, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.90%, WTI increased by 0.52%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 also changed [16]. - **Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil had different changes, and the spreads also changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of urea contracts generally increased, and spot prices in different regions also had small increases [19][23]. - **Supply and Demand**: From July 17 to July 18, the domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.25%, and the factory inventory decreased by 7.46% from July 11 to July 18 [24]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of L2601 and PP2601 increased, and spot prices of PP and LLDPE also increased. Spreads and basis changed significantly [29]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the inventory of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of pure benzene and styrene and their spreads changed [31]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries also had different degrees of change [31].