Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - With the improvement of rainfall in overseas production areas, the raw material prices in Thailand are gradually weakening, and the cost - side support is weakening. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is declining, and the inventory in Qingdao continues to accumulate. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material supply in each production area and the change of US tariffs [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. remained unchanged on July 9 compared with July 8. The full - milk basis and non - standard price difference decreased significantly, and the prices of cup rubber and glue in the international market slightly declined [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread increased by 8.33%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.53%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The production of Thailand increased by 157.52%. The production of domestic tires decreased slightly, and the export volume increased by 7.72%. The import volume of natural rubber decreased by 13.35%. The production cost of dry glue in Thailand decreased slightly, and the production profit of STR20 increased by 13.40% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The polysilicon futures opened high and moved high, and the spot price continued to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the polysilicon still faces the pressure of over - supply and inventory accumulation. Although the price is rising under the policy expectation, attention should be paid to the acceptance of downstream enterprises for the rising raw material prices and the subsequent terminal demand and consumption situation [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon increased, with increases of 2.56% and 4.11% respectively. The N - type material basis increased by 18.70%, and the cauliflower material basis decreased by 28.41% [3]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract increased by 2.31%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 298.85% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly output of silicon wafers decreased by 11.46%, and the monthly output of polysilicon increased by 5.10%. The import volume of polysilicon decreased by 67.16%, and the export volume decreased by 37.06% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.74%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply is expected to remain high in July, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon is mixed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the support of production reduction, but the long - term over - supply pressure may increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of polysilicon production changes on demand and the impact of policies [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 1.24%, and the basis of different types of industrial silicon increased to varying degrees [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 88.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 6.50%, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased, while the production in Inner Mongolia decreased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang factories decreased by 13.19%, and the social inventory increased by 1.85% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: Although the soda ash market rebounded under the influence of short - term news, the overall supply is still in an over - supply pattern. After the end of maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. It is recommended to wait and look for opportunities to short on the rebound [6]. - **Glass**: The glass market rebounded under the influence of policy expectations, but the current demand is in the off - season, and the rigid demand is under pressure. It is necessary to wait for more cold - repair measures to achieve a real reversal of the market, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained unchanged. The glass 2505 and 2509 contracts increased slightly, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased [6]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China and Central China remained unchanged, and the price in East China decreased by 1.60%. The soda ash 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 0.81%, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 4.02% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory decreased slightly, the soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.41%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 17.99% [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new - construction area, completion area, and sales area increased year - on - year, while the construction area decreased [6]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures fluctuated, and the prices of main benchmark delivery products decreased. The inventory decreased significantly last week, and the demand increased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, the log market will enter a period of weak supply and demand in the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The prices of log futures contracts 2509 and 2511 decreased slightly. The prices of main benchmark delivery products in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter [8]. - **Cost**: The import theoretical cost increased by 4% due to the change of RMB - US dollar exchange rate [8]. - **Supply**: The port shipping volume increased by 13.20%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 7.94% [8]. - **Inventory**: The national log inventory decreased by 3.87% week - on - week, and the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased [8]. - **Demand**: The national log daily average outbound volume increased by 2%, and the demand in Shandong increased by 10% [8].

Core Insights - Vietnam's economy is showing strong growth momentum, with a GDP growth of 7.96% in Q2 2025 and 7.52% in the first half of 2025, marking the highest level for the same period from 2011 to 2025 [1] - The government is implementing policies to achieve an annual growth target of 8%, with analysts predicting a growth rate of 8.42% in the second half of 2025 [1] Economic Drivers - Vietnam is demonstrating resilience and diversified growth dynamics amid a reshaping global trade and financial landscape [3] - The country is capitalizing on its "demographic dividend," with a population of approximately 101.6 million, where over 67% are of working age [3] - The labor market is robust, with a labor participation rate of 53 million and an unemployment rate of 2.22% for the working-age population [3] - Average monthly income has risen to approximately $325, indicating positive trends in employment and income growth [3] - Exports are thriving, with June 2025 export figures reaching approximately $21.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [3] - Vietnam continues to attract foreign investment, particularly in manufacturing, bolstered by a new trade agreement with the U.S. that reduces tariffs on most Vietnamese exports to 20% [3] Risks and Challenges - Despite strong economic performance, Vietnam faces structural challenges, including high external dependency and vulnerability to global economic fluctuations [5][6] - The country is particularly reliant on the U.S. market, with exports to the U.S. reaching $142 billion, accounting for about 29% of total exports and approximately 30% of GDP [8] - The recent trade agreement, while beneficial, still poses risks due to potential uncertainties in execution and compliance with "origin" rules [8] - The World Bank forecasts a slowdown in Vietnam's export growth from 14% in 2024 to 12.1% in 2025, influenced by weakened demand from China and the U.S. [8] - Vietnam is at a critical juncture for industrial upgrading, needing to balance openness with domestic industry autonomy to maintain sustainable growth [9]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has initiated a pilot program in Liuzhou, Guangxi, to promote transparent loan costs for enterprises, creating a "Loan Clarity Document" to outline all fees involved in the financing process [1] - The pilot program aims to reduce comprehensive financing costs for enterprises by guiding them to avoid unreasonable charges and helping eligible companies access support policies such as no-repayment renewals and government financing guarantees [1] - As of May 2025, pilot banks have provided the "Loan Clarity Document" to 154 enterprises, with a total loan amount of 1.966 billion yuan, showcasing the tangible benefits of this initiative [1] Group 2 - In the wood processing industrial park of Liucheng County, a leading wood company received an 8 million yuan working capital loan from Liucheng Rural Commercial Bank, which covered the equipment assessment fee, allowing the company to only pay an annual interest rate of 3.5% [2] - A local air conditioning sales company, facing a cash shortage, was provided with a 4 million yuan working capital loan by Liuzhou Bank, which also utilized a flexible repayment plan to ease the company's financial pressure, with an annual interest rate of 3.5% [3] - Everbright Bank offered a 6 million yuan working capital loan to a small logistics enterprise, and upon nearing maturity, provided a no-repayment renewal solution, ensuring the company only paid a 4.5% interest rate without any hidden fees, facilitating seamless loan renewal [4]

Core Points - The first batch of log futures delivery was successfully completed, with a total of 14 contracts and 1260 cubic meters delivered at a settlement price of 815.5 yuan per cubic meter [1] - Various companies participated in the delivery process, ensuring quality and compliance with standards [2][3][4] Group 1: Delivery Process - The delivery involved multiple locations, with 5 contracts completed in Rizhao and 9 in Taicang, highlighting the logistical coordination required [1] - Companies like Shandong Tengnuo Wood Industry successfully locked in raw material costs through hedging and received high-quality logs, which improved their processing efficiency [2] - Jiangsu Yaohua Logistics confirmed the quality of their logs and noted the advantages of cash settlement in reducing disputes related to quality and pricing [3] Group 2: Preparation and Training - Companies prepared extensively for the delivery, including staff training and quality checks, to ensure compliance with delivery standards [4][5] - Futures companies provided targeted support and training to clients, enhancing their operational capabilities and understanding of the delivery process [5] Group 3: Market Insights - The successful completion of the first delivery marks a significant step for log futures, but industry participants are encouraged to deepen their understanding of contract rules and adopt hedging principles [7] - The introduction of national standards as a pricing benchmark is expected to enhance the connection between futures and spot markets, promoting high-quality development in the industry [7]

Core Insights - The company is actively supporting the development of private enterprises by enhancing its financing coordination mechanisms for small and micro enterprises, with a focus on high-quality growth [1][2] - As of the end of April, 86.03% of the company's corporate clients are private enterprises, with a total support of 660 private enterprises amounting to 3.445 billion yuan [1] - The company has implemented a three-tiered service model combining "list visits + precise matching + financial empowerment" to extend its service reach [1] Financing Support - The company has provided 5 million yuan in credit support to Xu Zhou Hanlan Machinery Technology Co., Ltd. to address raw material procurement funding shortages [1] - The "Specialized, Refined, Characteristic, and Innovative Loan" product has been issued to six enterprises, totaling over 40 million yuan [1] - The company has simplified its approval processes and introduced a dual-channel service model (online and offline) to enhance customer satisfaction and credit efficiency [2] Innovative Products - The "Tax-Enterprise Integration" product allows enterprises to apply for loans based on their tax records, with a maximum limit of 500,000 yuan, and the entire process from application to fund disbursement takes only 3 hours [3] - Xu Zhou Heyao Wood Industry Co., Ltd. received a 2 million yuan credit limit and funding on the same day through the company's efficient service [3] - The company aims to meet diverse financing needs across different stages of enterprise development, contributing to the growth of private enterprises [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [4] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [4] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating [4] - Live Pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [5] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [6] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Cotton: Oscillating [10] - Sugar: Oscillating [11] - Pulp: Oscillating with a bearish bias [12] - Logs: Oscillating with a bearish bias [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products. In the short - term, the prices of live pigs and oils and fats may show a bullish trend, while protein meal, corn, and other products will oscillate. In the long - term, the supply of live pigs may face pressure, and the sugar market may decline due to expected supply increases [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Yesterday, the market oscillated and showed differentiation. The market should continue to monitor changes in the US biodiesel policy. Due to technical buying and optimistic demand expectations for soybean oil in the US biofuel industry, US soybeans rose on Wednesday, and domestic oils oscillated and showed differentiation yesterday, with palm oil being relatively strong. In the future, oils may continue to oscillate with a bullish bias, but the sustainability of the upward trend should be noted [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - The price rose first and then fell, continuing to oscillate. Internationally, the US "Big and Beautiful" Act was passed, and US soybeans rebounded from the lower limit of the range. Domestically, soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate, and supply pressure may lead to a weakening of spot prices. In the long - term, protein meal may be supported by cost and oscillate in the short - term [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - The futures market remained weak, and the spot market stabilized. The current fundamentals of the corn market are affected by factors such as rainfall, changes in supply rhythm, and wheat substitution. The short - term trend is oscillating [4][5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - Affected by the expected supply - side reform in the industry, the live pig futures market rebounded. In the short - term, pig prices have temporarily changed from weak to strong, but in the long - term, there is still supply pressure [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Rubber prices continued to fluctuate with commodities. The current fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively stable, with limited price changes, and the market is waiting for new variables [6][8]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - The weak raw materials dragged the market down. The current fundamentals of synthetic rubber are not significant, and the market mainly follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and overall commodities. The market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the previous low support [9]. 3.1.7 Cotton - Low inventory supports cotton prices. Although there are expectations of increased production in the new season, the current low inventory structure is expected to be beneficial to cotton prices, and the short - term price may be relatively resistant to decline [10]. 3.1.8 Sugar - The external market continued to weaken, and the domestic - foreign price difference widened. Domestically, there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure [11]. 3.1.9 Pulp - The futures market continued to rebound, but the spot market did not follow. The supply - demand situation of pulp is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [12]. 3.1.10 Logs - The fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. The log market is in a traditional off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak on both sides [13]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of multiple varieties, including the prices of live pigs, oils and fats, cotton, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis in this part [16][47][66][105][118][133][152]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards such as "bullish", "oscillating with a bullish bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a bearish bias", and "bearish", and the time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks [165].

Core Insights - The forestry sector, which includes timber processing and furniture manufacturing, was a significant economic pillar in certain regions of Ukraine, despite only accounting for 1.2% of the national GDP before the conflict [1] Group 1: Economic Impact of the Conflict - The Ukrainian economy suffered a severe contraction of nearly one-third following the outbreak of the conflict in 2022 [3] - The destruction of energy infrastructure led to a sharp increase in domestic demand for firewood [3] - The Ukrainian government decided to increase timber harvesting in controlled areas to alleviate economic pressure, with plans to strengthen the timber processing industry in the western controlled regions [3] Group 2: Export Performance - In the first five months of 2025, Ukraine's timber and wood products exports reached 1.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.55%, with export value around $671 million, up 13.2% from the previous year [3] - The EU's ban on Russian timber and the introduction of Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) in 2022 allowed Ukrainian forestry products to enter the EU market significantly, making Ukraine the second-largest furniture supplier in Europe after China [5] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The EU's increasing demands for transparency and sustainability in forestry products necessitate urgent reforms in Ukraine's forestry sector to meet market standards [5] - The termination of the ATM by the EU does not affect Ukraine's classification as a "low-risk" country under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which still facilitates access to the EU market [5] - Despite a drastic decline in timber exports to China, where imports fell by 80.2% in 2022, Ukraine maintains a strong bilateral trade relationship, with imports from China increasing by 37.2% in 2024 [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - Overall, Ukraine's forestry trade faces both opportunities and challenges in the current international landscape, with stable demand from the EU but significant hurdles in restoring exports to China [9]

Core Viewpoint - ST Jinggu (600265) announced that its subsidiary, Huiyin Wood Industry, has had its finished goods warehouse and all finished board goods within the warehouse seized, along with the freezing of its main bank accounts, which will adversely affect normal shipments and sales [1] Group 1 - The seized inventory accounts for approximately 70% of the company's total inventory, indicating a significant operational impact [1] - The company has not yet received any legal documents or court notifications regarding the case, leading to uncertainty about the impact on current and future profits [1] - If Huiyin Wood Industry is ultimately found liable, there is a risk of judicial disposal of related assets, which would negatively affect its operations [1]

x产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月27日 现货价格及基差 品种 6月26日 6月25日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13850 13750 100 0.73% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -190 -20 -170 -850.00% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13700 13600 100 0.74% 非标价差 -340 -170 -170 -100.00% 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 46.95 47.20 -0.25 -0.53% 泰铢/公斤 胶水：国际市场：FOB中间价 57.50 -0.25 57.25 -0.43% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12600 12600 0 0.00% 13200 0 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13200 0.00% 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 12400 12400 0 0.00% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 合约 6月26日 6月25日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 9-1价差 -845 -850 5 0.59% 1-5价差 -25 -5 -20.00 ...

x产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月27日 现货价格及基差 品种 6月26日 6月25日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13850 13750 100 0.73% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -190 -20 -170 -850.00% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13700 13600 100 0.74% 非标价差 -340 -170 -170 -100.00% 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 46.95 47.20 -0.25 -0.53% 泰铢/公斤 胶水：国际市场：FOB中间价 57.50 -0.25 57.25 -0.43% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12600 12600 0 0.00% 13200 0 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13200 0.00% 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 12400 12400 0 0.00% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 合约 6月26日 6月25日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 9-1价差 -845 -850 5 0.59% 1-5价差 -25 -5 -20.00 ...