Group 1 - Wall Street's record rally is facing a reality check as market valuations reach levels seen around the 2021 peak [1][2] - Investors have been willing to pay premiums for stocks, but the impact of tariffs on the overall economy is becoming harder to ignore [1][2] - The Stifel team warns of a potential "mild stagflation" that could trigger a market sell-off similar to the "tariff panic" experienced in April [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming economic slowdown is expected to be more severe, with actual unit sales of goods likely to decline as companies raise prices to offset tariffs [2][3] - The S&P 500 index could drop by up to 14%, aligning with Stifel's year-end target of 5500 points, despite the current index being around 6389 points [2][3] - Stifel remains one of the few bearish voices on Wall Street, maintaining a lower target for the S&P 500 compared to other strategists [3] Group 3 - Investors are advised to consider defensive value stocks, with Philip Morris International and Abbott Laboratories highlighted as potential opportunities [3]

作者：行情君 从中证香港100主要消费指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 从中证香港100主要消费指数持仓样本的行业来看，食品占比40.86%、软饮料占比32.67%、酒占比 15.57%、烟草占比10.89%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当对应的母指数调整样本时， 行业指数样本将相应调整。当样本公司有特殊事件发生，导致其行业归属发生变更时，将对指数进行相 应调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照 计算与维护细则处理。 金融界8月11日消息，上证指数上涨0.34%，中证香港100主要消费指数 (H100消费，L11184)报2720.99 点。 数据统计显示，中证香港100主要消费指数近一个月上涨7.60%，近三个月上涨5.05%，年至今上涨 18.36%。 据了解，中证香港100行业指数系列将中证香港100指数样本 ...

Group 1: Transportation Services - Pakistan's revenue from transportation services reached $878 million in the first 11 months of the fiscal year 2024-2025, marking a 25.06% increase from $702 million in the same period last year [7] - Maritime service exports grew by 1.34% from $101 million to $102 million, while air transport exports increased by 25.77% from $575 million to $723 million [7] - Road transport exports saw a significant rise of 67.09%, increasing from $23 million to $38 million [7] Group 2: Fiscal Performance - The budget deficit for the fiscal year 2024-2025 is projected at 6.168 trillion PKR, which is 5.38% of GDP, the lowest in nine years [7] - Total revenue for the same fiscal year is estimated at 17.997 trillion PKR, accounting for 15.7% of GDP, while total expenditure is 24.165 trillion PKR, or 21.1% of GDP [7] - The GDP for the fiscal year 2024-2025 is estimated at 114.692 trillion PKR [7] Group 3: Tobacco Exports - Tobacco exports for the fiscal year 2024-2025 reached $167 million, a remarkable increase of 158.31% from $64 million in the previous fiscal year [8] - The total volume of tobacco exports also rose significantly from 18,282 tons to 43,520 tons, reflecting a growth of 140.18% [8] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Initiative - The government approved a five-year subsidy plan to promote 116,000 electric bicycles and 3,170 electric rickshaws, with an estimated cost of 100 billion PKR [8] - This initiative aims to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles, reduce oil imports, and promote environmental sustainability [8] Group 5: Trade with Neighboring Countries - Exports to seven countries, including Afghanistan, China, and India, totaled $4.427 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.08%, representing 13.70% of Pakistan's total exports of $33.295 billion [10] - Imports from these countries amounted to $16.699 billion, reflecting a 30.07% increase from $13.838 billion in the previous fiscal year [10] Group 6: Agricultural Census - The 2024 agricultural census revealed that the number of farming households in Pakistan increased from 8.3 million in 2010 to 11.7 million [10] - The total cultivated area expanded from 4.26 million acres in 2010 to 5.28 million acres in 2024, with livestock numbers reaching 251 million, growing at an annual rate of 3.18% since 2006 [10] Group 7: Land Port Authority Legislation - The National Assembly passed the "2025 Pakistan Land Port Authority Bill" to facilitate the movement of goods and people at border crossings [10] - This legislation positions Pakistan as the third South Asian country to establish a land port authority, following Bangladesh and India, and aims to enhance trade and border control [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that China's cigarette production reached 158.9 billion sticks in June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative cigarette production in China amounted to 1,375.65 billion sticks, showing a cumulative growth of 0.8% [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics of China and organized by Zhiyan Consulting [3]

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) saw a stock increase of over 5%, currently trading at 21.28 HKD with a transaction volume of 1.42 billion HKD, driven by positive outlooks on new tobacco products from British American Tobacco (BAT) [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, BAT reported revenue from new tobacco products at 1.651 billion GBP, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [1] - Adjusted gross profit for BAT reached 1.006 billion GBP, up 6.8%, with an adjusted gross margin of 59.5%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points [1] - Profit contribution from product categories was 179 million GBP, marking a significant increase of 39% [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - BAT anticipates accelerated growth in its new tobacco business in the second half of 2025, projecting a mid-single-digit revenue growth for the entire year [1] - Smoore International is viewed positively as a core supplier, benefiting from BAT's substantial resource and marketing investments in GloHilo, which has received favorable feedback from trials in Japan and early deployments in several European countries [1] - The overall performance of Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products is stable, supported by the launch of GloHilo, which has increased its market share by 1.5 percentage points in Sendai [1] - The global HNB industry is entering a new product lifecycle phase, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, suggesting potential for accelerated industry expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Industrial Holdings is a comprehensive enterprise with four core businesses: infrastructure and environmental protection, healthcare, real estate, and consumer goods, having evolved since its establishment in 1996 as a red-chip company listed in Hong Kong [1][2]. Infrastructure and Environmental Protection - The company holds concession rights for three major expressways in Shanghai, providing stable revenue and cash flow due to consistent traffic and toll growth [1]. - The water business has a combined daily processing capacity exceeding 20 million tons, ranking among the top in the country, with platforms in Singapore and Hong Kong [1]. Real Estate - The real estate segment reported a loss of HKD 236 million in 2024, primarily due to impairment losses on property projects, despite holding a total land reserve of 4.2 million square meters [1]. Consumer Goods - The consumer goods segment, including Nanyang Tobacco and Yongfa Printing, has seen a recovery, with Nanyang Tobacco's net profit expected to grow by 86% to HKD 560 million in 2024, aided by increased overseas revenue following the commissioning of a factory in Malaysia [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the sale of a 19.5% stake in Yuefeng Environmental, which will generate HKD 2.33 billion in cash, potentially enhancing dividends [2]. - The stock is considered undervalued with a high dividend yield, showing a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.0x for 2025, and is projected to have a stock value between HKD 17.62 and HKD 18.35, indicating a premium of 22.5% to 27.6% over the current price [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the robust growth trend in the new tobacco industry, as evidenced by British American Tobacco's performance in the first half of 2025, particularly in the heated tobacco and new oral tobacco segments [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The global HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is entering a new product lifecycle phase, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry expansion [2]. - The vaping market faced challenges in the first half of 2025, with British American Tobacco's vaping business generating £737 million in revenue, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, primarily due to illegal products in the U.S. and Canada, as well as market dynamics in Europe and other regions [2]. - The company has exited markets like Malaysia and Saudi Arabia to improve investment returns, while the U.S. has seen a clearance of illegal disposable brand inventories, which will take time to impact the market [2]. Group 2: Performance Analysis - The overall performance of HNB products remained stable, with British American Tobacco's HNB business achieving £444 million in revenue, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, and heated stick sales reaching 10.1 billion units, up 2% [3]. - The introduction of Glo Hilo has helped expand market share in trial regions, with a 1.5 percentage point increase in Glo's market share in Sendai [3]. - The new oral tobacco segment has shown significant growth, with revenue reaching £470 million, a 38% increase year-on-year, and sales volume of 5 billion pouches, up 42% [3]. - The U.S. market for new oral tobacco has surged, with a 206% increase in sales, and the Velo brand capturing a market share of 17% by July 2025, making it the fastest-growing brand in this category [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target valuation range of HKD 17.62 to HKD 18.35 per share, indicating a potential upside of 22.5% to 27.6% from the current price of HKD 14.67 [5][3]. Core Insights - The company has a stable foundation in its infrastructure and environmental sectors, particularly in toll roads and water services, while awaiting marginal improvements in real estate and tobacco sectors [1][2]. - The real estate segment reported a loss of HKD 236 million in 2024 due to impairment losses on property projects, despite holding quality land resources totaling 4.2 million square meters [2]. - The consumer segment, which includes leading companies in tobacco and printing, has shown signs of recovery, with net profit for Nanyang Tobacco increasing by 86% year-on-year to HKD 560 million in 2024 [2]. - The company has successfully generated significant cash flow through the sale of a 19.5% stake in Yuefeng Environmental, amounting to HKD 2.33 billion, which may lead to increased dividends [2]. - The company is considered undervalued with a high dividend yield compared to peers in the Hong Kong market [2]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 2.943 billion, HKD 3.084 billion, and HKD 3.197 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 4.8%, 4.8%, and 3.7% [3][4]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are 5.0, 4.7, and 4.6 times, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry standards [3][4]. - The report highlights a stable revenue forecast, with expected revenues of HKD 29.711 billion in 2025, showing a slight increase from 2024 [4]. Business Segments Overview - The infrastructure and environmental segment remains robust, with the company holding 100% stakes in three major toll roads in Shanghai, which have shown stable traffic and revenue growth [1][40]. - The water services segment, comprising two platforms, has a combined daily treatment capacity exceeding 20 million tons, ranking among the top in the country [1][49]. - The real estate segment has faced challenges, with a significant decline in revenue and profitability due to market conditions and impairment losses [2][21]. - The consumer segment is recovering, with improved sales and profitability driven by international expansion and operational optimizations [2][21].

市场部执行，精耕细作。各市场部以"精准指导—动态优化—资源保障"为核心，推动服务落地。在一次 专项提升行动中，某市场部针对低执行率客户重新规划了拜访路径。客户经理通过平台分析客户需求， 将原本分散的拜访点整合为高效路线，一周内完成优先级客户全覆盖。这一改进也获得了客户的积极回 应。武汉某医药连锁店的采购主管陈经理感慨："以前客户经理来拜访总是'打游击'，现在他们带着数 据和方案上门，我们的合作更高效了。市场部还通过灵活调整人员分工，确保服务无死角。 为深化客户经理职能转型，武昌营销部围绕"9233"移动拜访平台中的三大核心指标——服务策略执行 率、拜访覆盖率以及拜访预警异常情况，从区营销部统筹、市场部执行到客户经理落实三个层面齐心协 力，构建了一个从目标分解到过程管控直至闭环优化的工作机制，助力营销服务质量提升。 营销部引领，精准导航。区营销部通过将核心指标纳入年度考核体系，为一线人员提供了明确的目标方 向。在"周通报+月总结"的动态监测机制下，客户经理的服务效率显著提升。此外，区局组织的"平台操 作演练会"也收获了好评。客服部用PPT演示派单逻辑，手把手教会营销人员如何通过平台反馈需求。 现在客户经理能精准 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of HNB remains stable, benefiting from the launch of GloHilo, with Glo's market share in Sendai increasing by 1.5 percentage points [1][2] - In H1 2025, British American Tobacco's (BAT) new oral tobacco segment generated revenue of £470 million, a year-on-year increase of 38%, with sales of 5 billion pouches, up 42%, and a remarkable 206% growth in the U.S. market [1][3] - The U.S. new oral tobacco market exceeds £2 billion, expected to double in size over the next two years [3] Group 2 - The vaping market faced pressure in H1 2025, with BAT's vaping segment revenue declining by 15% year-on-year to £737 million, primarily due to illegal products in the U.S. and Canada, as well as market dynamics in Europe [1] - The launch of GloHilo has led to a 1.5 percentage point increase in market share in Sendai, with a successful entry into the high-end market [2] - BAT's heated tobacco segment generated £444 million in revenue in H1 2025, a slight increase of 1%, with sales of 10.1 billion sticks, up 2%, although declines in certain European markets offset growth [2] Group 3 - The U.S. market for new oral tobacco products is experiencing rapid growth, with the Velo brand capturing a market share of 17% by July 2025, following its launch in May [3] - The global HNB industry is entering a new product lifecycle phase, with major brands actively cultivating the market, indicating potential for accelerated industry expansion [4] - Recommendations are made for investing in companies with competitive product technology and supply chains, specifically British American Tobacco and Smoore International [4]