证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2025-07-01 行业投资评级 | 收盘点位 | | 2671.67 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2838.04 | | 52 周最低 | | 2110.64 | 行业相对指数表现 -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | 《生猪偏弱震荡，政策调控影响或在明 年体现》 - 2025.06.24 农林牧渔行业报告 （2025.6.22-2025.6.29） 猪价触底反弹，降重缓慢推进 ⚫ 行情回顾：弱于大盘 农林牧渔（申万）行业指数涨 0.80%，在申万 31 个一级行业中涨 幅排名第 25 位。虽然农业调控政策频出，但仍跑输大盘，主要原因 是生猪 ...

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月1日 王泽辉 Z0019938 | 票阳 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 6月30日 | 6月27日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8240 | 8290 | -50 | -0.60% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7984 | 8002 | -18 | -0.22% | | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 256 | 288 | -32 | -11.11% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+250 | 09+250 | 0 | - | | | 仓单 | | 20582 | 18882 | 1700 | 9.00% | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | 6月30日 | 6月27日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8400 | 8500 | -100 | -1.18% | | | 期价 | P2509 | 8330 | 8376 | ...

Core Point - Mexico announced that the United States will reopen its border to allow the import of live cattle as part of cooperation on the issue of screw-worm disease [1] Group 1 - The reopening of the border signifies a collaborative effort between Mexico and the United States to address agricultural health concerns [1] - The import of live cattle is expected to have implications for the livestock industry in both countries [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the development of the poultry industry in Guzhen County, emphasizing the role of government support and technological advancements in enhancing production efficiency and profitability [1][3][6] Industry Development - Guzhen County has implemented a comprehensive support system for the poultry industry, including financial assistance and infrastructure development, which has significantly boosted the production capacity and economic output of local farms [3][6] - The county's "One Hundred Million Chickens" project initiated in 2013 provides various subsidies and support measures to chicken farmers, resulting in substantial growth in production and revenue [3][4] Technological Advancements - The introduction of standardized chicken farming practices, including the "Five Unifications" model, has led to the establishment of 28 standardized chicken farms, each capable of producing over 1.2 million chickens annually [3][4] - The shift from ground-based to vertical cage farming has increased production capacity by nearly one-third, improved environmental conditions, and reduced costs, resulting in an average profit increase of 1.5 yuan per chicken [4][5] Company Performance - Bengbu Dacheng Food Co., Ltd. operates a comprehensive poultry processing facility that can process a chicken from slaughter to packaging in just two hours, producing over 20 million chickens annually for various markets [5][6] - The company is set to achieve a sales target of 3.8 billion yuan in 2024 and plans to expand its operations with an 870 million yuan investment in a new cooked food processing project [6]

Core Points - The article depicts the life of highland herders in Shangri-La, Yunnan, highlighting the challenges and changes they face in their traditional lifestyle [1][2][3] - It emphasizes the generational shift in work and lifestyle choices, with younger members opting for modern jobs or businesses instead of traditional herding [5][6] - The narrative illustrates the communal aspects of their culture, showcasing gatherings and shared activities among different ethnic groups [10] Group 1: Lifestyle and Challenges - The highland herders live in remote areas without modern amenities, leading to a lifestyle that is both beautiful and challenging [1][2] - The quality of sheep wool is crucial for income, but the market for livestock has been negatively impacted by imported meat [6][9] - There is a noticeable decline in traditional practices, such as wool processing, as fewer people engage in these activities [6][9] Group 2: Generational Changes - Younger generations, like Amu and Bangzhi, have explored opportunities in urban areas but are now returning to their hometowns with new business ideas [5][6] - The article highlights the contrast between the older generation's reliance on traditional herding and the younger generation's inclination towards modern entrepreneurship [5][6] Group 3: Community and Culture - The article describes communal activities, such as sheep shearing and evening gatherings around a campfire, which foster a sense of belonging among the herders [10] - Different ethnic groups, including the Tibetan, Naxi, and Pumi, come together to celebrate their shared culture through music and communal meals [10]

Supply Analysis - The official breeding sow inventory in April was 40.38 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with little monthly variation in the first half of the year [1] - In the first half of the year, piglet sales profits were good and feed costs were low, leading to a gradual increase in monthly piglet supply in the second quarter [1] - Breeding profits have declined to near breakeven, with the price difference for standard pigs expanding, prompting secondary fattening and group sales, resulting in a steady release of production capacity [1] Demand Analysis - Slaughter volumes in March and April significantly increased compared to the beginning of the year and the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of about 8% in officially designated slaughter volumes, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - The national reserve's rotation and storage in the first half of the year provided support for slaughter enterprises [1] - High temperatures in July and August may suppress demand, while the peak demand season in the fourth quarter and domestic macroeconomic recovery may support pig prices [1] Profit Analysis - Breeding profits reached a high point in the second quarter before declining, but profits remain positive [1] - Profit changes are influenced by rising corn prices and a downward shift in spot prices, with limited downward space for breeding profits despite potential corn price increases [1] Basis Analysis - The market supply is loose, with futures fluctuating around cost lines, and near-month contracts significantly discounting spot prices [1] - Supply pressure has shifted, causing spot prices to decline less than expected, with contracts for March and May driving futures prices up [1] - Long-term contract basis fluctuates between 800 and 1300, with strong market expectations and slow declines in spot prices [1] Investment Recommendations - Overall inventory increases, weight reduction expectations, and fluctuations in secondary fattening are expected to extend the downward cycle of live pigs [1] - Inventory increases in July and August may slow down, while the growth rate of inventory in September may accelerate, maintaining a loose supply pattern [1] - It is recommended to short the September and November contracts based on basis adjustments [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-06-30 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，五一假期后国内出栏积极性减弱生猪价格短期维持弱势，预计节后本周供给或 猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，五一假期结束居民整体消费意愿热情回落，压 制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征关税，提振市场信心。综合来看，预计 本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期回归震荡格局。关注月底集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态 变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价14560元/吨，2509合约基差555元/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 3. 库存：截至3月 ...

原标题：浙江加快建设全国首个"智慧农业引领区"——田野用上大模型 种地就是不一样 2024年，农业农村部将全国首个"智慧农业引领区"的建设重任交给浙江。近日，记者从全省智慧农 业引领区建设现场推进会上了解到，浙江正加快制定《智慧农业引领区建设实施方案（2025—2030 年）》，将依托一体化智能化公共数据平台，围绕种植业、畜牧业、渔业等核心产业，加速推进以大模 型为代表的AI（人工智能）技术在农业领域的深度应用见效。 AI的核心能力在于感知、决策与执行。当大模型遇上农业，正赋予农业前所未有的自主分析与预 测能力，驱动着无人化生产和全链条智能化变革，成为智慧农业跃升的关键引擎。 在浙江的田间地头、牧场车间、广袤市场，一场由大模型驱动的农业革命正悄然重塑千年农耕的面 貌。 利用数字孪生，突破凭经验和感觉 从毛竹大棚、山地脚手架单体棚、山地平顶连栋棚、山地拱形连栋棚，到如今的第五代山地智能化 大棚，兰溪杨梅产业协会会长陶奉源算是把设施杨梅"越玩越明白"了。他又有了一个新的目标——打造 杨梅的"数字孪生"。 动植物"数字孪生"，就是利用数字技术，创建动植物的虚拟模型，使其在虚拟空间中能够反映现实 中动植物的动态变化和 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Yuran Dairy Industry Industry Overview - The dairy industry is expected to see a moderate recovery in milk prices in 2025, influenced by summer heat stress, mid-to-high-end dairy product consumption, and new national standards [2][3][4] - The original milk price is projected to stabilize in Q3 2025 and rise in Q4 2025, supported by cash flow pressures faced by social pastures during the silage procurement season [2][10] Key Points Milk Price Expectations - Milk prices are anticipated to rise to around 3.8 RMB/kg, with fluctuations expected to be moderate rather than drastic [4][22] - The average milk price for 2024 was 4.12 RMB/kg, with a sales cost of 2.77 RMB/kg, where feed costs accounted for approximately 70%-75% of total costs [2][21] Company Strategy and Performance - Yuran Dairy aims for a low single-digit growth in the number of dairy cows in 2025, with production and sales expected to exceed 4 million tons [2][5] - The company’s fresh milk pricing is above the market average, with a 2024 average of 4.12 RMB/kg compared to the national average of 3.32 RMB/kg [2][6] - The company plans to maintain a stable gross margin in 2025, benefiting from a recovery in beef prices which will reduce losses from culling [5][21] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The culling of dairy cows is accelerating due to rising beef prices, which are nearing 20 RMB/kg, alleviating cash flow pressures on pastures [2][9] - The number of dairy cows in China has been decreasing, with a monthly reduction of approximately 35,000 to 40,000 heads from January to April 2025, slowing to 10,000 heads in May [3][4] Cost and Profit Analysis - A change of 0.1 RMB/kg in milk price or cost is expected to impact annual net profit by approximately 400 million RMB [3][21] - The company’s average sales ratio remains stable at 97%-98%, with no sales pressure due to unlimited purchases from downstream clients [12] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - There is a structural change in demand, with a shift from room temperature milk to low-temperature milk and an increase in the high-end segment of infant formula and elderly milk powder [10][11] - The company is exploring international markets, including Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, to expand its customer base [11] Future Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to stabilize and see a gradual recovery in milk prices, indicating that the most challenging period may be nearing its end [20][22] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and maintaining a balanced supply-demand relationship to navigate future market fluctuations [22][29] Additional Insights - The company has expanded its product line to include goat milk, which is gaining popularity due to its digestibility [25] - The breeding business is progressing well, with a focus on improving the quality of dairy cows through advanced breeding techniques [26] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction and market dynamics of Yuran Dairy Industry.

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia is actively promoting the transformation and development of agriculture and animal husbandry, focusing on ecological agriculture and deep processing of agricultural products to enhance the quality and efficiency of the industry [2][6]. Group 1: Agricultural Production Optimization - The introduction of intercropping, such as planting sunflowers between rows of wheat, has led to a 30% increase in net profit per mu [2]. - In 2024, grain production in Inner Mongolia is expected to reach 82.01 billion jin, with an average yield increase of 24.2 jin per mu [2]. Group 2: Structural Improvement - The region is optimizing its production structure by developing 18 advantageous industrial belts for crops and livestock, including corn, wheat, and beef [4]. - The focus is on selecting high-quality varieties and efficient planting models to ensure both yield and income for farmers [4]. Group 3: Technological Empowerment - The contribution rate of agricultural technology progress in Inner Mongolia has reached 62.4%, with over 90% mechanization in crop farming [5]. - Smart farming technologies are being adopted, allowing for automated feeding and management of livestock, significantly improving efficiency [5]. Group 4: Deep Processing and Value Chain Extension - The development of deep processing in agriculture aims to extend the industrial chain, with a target of achieving a processing conversion rate of over 78% for major agricultural products in 2023 [6]. - The agricultural industry in Inner Mongolia is projected to exceed 700 billion yuan in key industry chain output value by 2024 [6].