Group 1 - The China-Senegal Investment Forum held in Dakar focused on "Chinese Enterprises Supporting Senegal's Development," attracting over 300 participants, including government officials and representatives from more than 150 Chinese and Senegalese companies [1] - Senegal's Minister of Economy, Planning and Cooperation highlighted the long-standing partnership between China and Senegal, with over 100 Chinese enterprises operating in various sectors such as transportation, energy, agriculture, and digital economy, contributing significantly to Senegal's industrial transformation and economic revitalization [1] - The Senegalese Minister of Agriculture praised Chinese enterprises for their professionalism and innovation, emphasizing their role in supporting agricultural modernization and food security in Senegal [1] Group 2 - The Director of the Senegal Industrial Park Development and Promotion Agency noted the significant role of Chinese enterprises in the construction of industrial parks, with active participation from business associations in Fujian, Zhejiang, and Hunan provinces, enhancing cooperation in industrial investment, innovative technology, and new energy [2] - The Chinese Ambassador to Senegal stated that China is a sincere partner in Senegal's development, being the largest trading partner with an investment stock exceeding $430 million, creating 11,000 local jobs [2] - During the forum, multiple cooperation agreements were signed between China and Senegal in the fields of energy, finance, and environmental protection [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing in driving high-quality economic growth in China over the past decade, highlighting the role of "chain master" enterprises in building and strengthening industrial chains [1] Group 1: Building Chains - The construction of new industrial chains begins with integrating AI technology to enhance manufacturing processes, moving from traditional methods to AI-driven solutions that can detect minute differences in production [2] - The development of the first industrial multimodal model, Industry GPT, by a technology company showcases the potential of AI in automating and improving manufacturing efficiency [3] Group 2: Supplementing Chains - A company in Shandong has successfully developed high-conductivity aluminum alloy cables, addressing global challenges in the industry and achieving breakthroughs in material properties through interdisciplinary collaboration [4] - This innovation not only enables domestic production but also enhances the safety, efficiency, and energy-saving capabilities of critical infrastructure projects in China [5] - The shift from reliance on imports to domestic production has led to reduced costs and shorter delivery times, significantly benefiting major engineering projects [6] Group 3: Extending Chains - In Hainan, advancements in agricultural technology have transformed traditional farming into a comprehensive value chain, allowing farmers to increase their income through high-quality produce [8] - The integration of advanced technologies in breeding and cultivation processes has created a new competitive landscape in agriculture, benefiting both producers and consumers [8] Group 4: Strengthening Chains - The medical device industry is experiencing innovation through enhanced supply chain efficiency and resilience, exemplified by a company producing biodegradable vascular stents using advanced 3D printing technology [9] - The focus on collaborative partnerships across the supply chain aims to reduce costs and improve access to innovative medical products for the public, reflecting the modernization of the industry [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - shares are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation in the context of stable economic fundamentals, continuous inflow of incremental funds, global liquidity easing, and improved Sino - US relations [28][29]. - During the "Double Festival" in China, the international gold futures price reached a new historical high. Although there is a callback risk in the short term, gold will still perform well in the long - term due to the expected decline in the credibility and purchasing power of the US dollar [21][22]. - To achieve the goal of doubling the economic aggregate or per capita income compared to 2020 by 2035, China's economy needs to maintain a moderate average annual growth rate of about 4% - 4.5% during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. Policies in various fields will focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices grew by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year (4.7%) [1]. - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points [1][16]. - In August 2025, social financing increment was 2566.8 billion yuan, M0 increased by 11.7% year - on - year, M1 by 6.0%, and M2 by 8.8% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Mexico launched 4 anti - dumping investigations on Chinese products such as float glass and PVC coated fabrics, and China initiated a trade and investment barrier investigation [2]. - On October 9, the A - share market started the fourth - quarter trading. Overseas stock markets generally strengthened during the holiday, and the international gold price exceeded $4000 per ounce, while domestic consumption during the Golden Week showed resilience, which may support the A - share market [2]. - The Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates further in 2025, but many officials were cautious due to inflation concerns. The WTO raised the 2025 global goods trade growth forecast to 2.4% and lowered the 2026 forecast to 0.5% [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - During the "National Day" holiday, the global commodity market was dominated by the metal sector. The international gold price exceeded $4000 per ounce, and domestic gold jewelry prices reached new highs. The price of copper may rise due to supply shortages [5]. - The central bank's gold reserve increased for 11 consecutive months. The LME inventory of some metals changed, and the copper market is expected to shift from a surplus in 2025 to a shortage in 2026 [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The State Council's Work Safety Committee deployed the investigation, sealing, and rectification of abandoned mines and the crackdown on illegal mining [8]. - The Xinjiang Jinghe County coal reserve project was completed and put into use, with a total construction area of 131,647.92 square meters and a new 250,000 - ton coal storage bunker [8]. - Brazil and China plan to jointly establish a $1 - billion investment fund focusing on energy transition, infrastructure, and other fields [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On October 8, the US crude oil futures rose due to a decline in US refined oil inventories and a rise in the stock market. Azerbaijan's BTC crude oil exports in November are expected to decrease [10]. - Russia is committed to fulfilling the OPEC+ agreement, gradually increasing oil production, and its refineries have increased fuel production [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Brazil is expected to export 1.92 million tons of soybean meal and 7.12 million tons of soybeans in October 2025 [12]. - China proposed to strengthen regional agricultural cooperation at the ASEAN - China - Japan - South Korea Agriculture and Forestry Ministers' Meeting [13]. - Ukraine approved a tax - free export mechanism for rapeseed and soybeans [13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 9, the central bank conducted 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, with an incremental roll - over of 300 billion yuan [14]. - On September 30, the central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan [14]. - This week, 2.6633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 2.0633 trillion yuan maturing on October 9 [14]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - China and the US should expand cooperation and resolve issues through equal negotiation [15]. - As of the end of June 2025, China's total external debt was 1.74437 trillion yuan, and the debt risk was generally controllable [15][16]. - In September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0% [16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - On September 30, the bond market and futures market recovered, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declining [23]. - On October 8, European and US bond yields generally fell [25][26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On September 30, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1186, up 18 points from the previous trading day [27]. - On October 8, the US dollar index rose 0.27%, and most non - US currencies fell [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that precious metals and copper prices have risen, and A - shares are expected to rise in the future [28][29]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income analyzed the situation of the money market last week [29]. - CITIC Securities estimated China's economic growth rate during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [29]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - On Wednesday, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.48%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.55%. Gold and nuclear power stocks rose, while AI and consumer stocks were weak [32]. - During the "Double Festival", overseas stock markets and Chinese concept stocks performed well, and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market in September [32]. - On October 9, 23 funds were launched, and about 70 new funds are scheduled to be issued in October, mainly including active equity funds, index funds, and convertible bond funds [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of continuous rain on the autumn harvest in the Huanghuai region, particularly in Henan, Shandong, and Anhui, and outlines the measures taken by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs to ensure timely harvesting and quality of autumn grain [1] Group 1: Agricultural Response - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is enhancing emergency response for agricultural machinery to support disaster relief efforts in affected areas [1] - Coordination between central and local governments is being strengthened to optimize scheduling services and mobilize disaster relief machinery [1] - The focus is on quickly gathering resources for concentrated efforts in disaster-stricken areas to ensure the timely harvesting and drying of autumn grain [1] Group 2: Future Coordination - The Ministry plans to maintain close communication with eight provinces in the Huanghuai region, including Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, and Shaanxi, to assess the latest disaster situation [1] - There will be active coordination with local governments and enterprises to meet the demand for disaster relief machinery and emergency operations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. Sectors like energy storage, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long term, the main idea is to go long on dips [2][3]. - For the bond market in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market is in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. - For most non - ferrous metals, factors such as supply tightening, macro - policy easing, and relatively stable demand support price increases, but different metals have different specific driving factors and price trends [8][9][10][11]. - For black building materials, the current steel demand is weak, but with the macro - environment turning loose, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens. For other varieties in the black building materials sector, different trends and influencing factors exist [31][33]. - For energy chemicals, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some varieties are expected to maintain a volatile trend, while others have opportunities for short - term long positions or risks of decline [50][52][54]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand relationship of different varieties is unbalanced. Some are in a situation of oversupply and prices are under pressure, while others are expected to be strong due to factors such as policy support and supply - demand expectations [73][74][79][80]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year" capital market plan for listed companies and industry institutions. During the holiday, non - ferrous metal futures such as precious metals, copper, and aluminum closed higher. Global storage chip prices are rising, and the storage chip industry is expected to enter a "super cycle". China's nuclear fusion device BEST has made a key breakthrough [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous rise, high - level hot sectors have diverged, and the market volume has shrunk. Short - term index fluctuations have increased, but the medium - and long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On September 30, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The cross - regional personnel flow during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays reached 2.36 billion person - times. The US September non - farm payrolls data was postponed due to the government "shutdown". The central bank conducted 2422 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 339 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In September, the manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery but was still below the boom - bust line. The "anti - involution" policy led to a rise in the price level, but the subsequent social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and there are still expectations of monetary easing and the central bank restarting bond purchases. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the fourth quarter [5]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: COMEX gold and silver prices fell. During the National Day, overseas risk events impacted the US dollar credit, and gold prices rose. The Fed officials had differences in the follow - up interest rate path, and the market expected further interest rate cuts [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term long - position thinking for precious metals. There is a short - term risk of price correction, and price dips are good opportunities to enter long positions [6]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, overseas non - ferrous metal prices were generally strong. LME copper prices rose, and overseas exchange copper inventories changed differently. Chile's August copper production decreased, and domestic September electrolytic copper production also decreased [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and macro - policy easing support copper prices, and demand is not significantly weak. Copper prices are expected to remain strong [9]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, the aluminum price rose. LME aluminum inventories decreased, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production and operating capacity were relatively stable, with the proportion of molten aluminum increasing [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Macro - sentiment supports the aluminum price. With the increase in the domestic molten aluminum proportion and the seasonal recovery of consumption, the aluminum price is expected to rise [11]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Shanghai zinc index fell slightly. During the holiday, the LME zinc price rose, and the inventory decreased. The structural risk of LME zinc strengthened [12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelting and downstream enterprises maintained normal production. The non - ferrous metal sector was strong, and the Shanghai zinc price is expected to be strong after the holiday [14]. Lead - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Shanghai lead index rose slightly. During the holiday, the LME lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The lead price structure was under pressure [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the holiday, domestic lead smelting enterprises maintained normal production, and downstream battery enterprises had a shorter holiday. The lead price is expected to be weak and volatile after the holiday [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: During the National Day, the nickel price fluctuated. The spot market had little trading activity during the holiday. Before the holiday, the nickel price fluctuated in a narrow range, and downstream enterprises had low enthusiasm for stocking [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, which drags down the nickel price. In the medium - and long - term, factors such as US easing expectations and domestic anti - involution policies support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider going long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: During the National Day, the LME tin price was strong. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand in the new energy and AI fields was good, but the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance fields were still weak [19][20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: On September 30, the carbonate lithium spot index and futures prices fell [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the double festivals, the strong demand in the lithium - battery downstream supports the price, while the supply replenishment expectation suppresses the upside space. Pay attention to the supply continuity of the resource end and the realization of strong demand expectations [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 30, the alumina index fell. The domestic spot price fell, and the overseas price was stable. The import window was opened [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the stainless steel futures price fell slightly. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [25][26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the holiday, the stainless steel market was in a tug - of - war between cost support and weak demand. If the supply pressure increases after the holiday, the price may continue to decline [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Before the National Day, the cast aluminum alloy futures price was weak. During the holiday, the cost of raw aluminum rose. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts widened, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream peak season of cast aluminum alloy is not strong, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. The support comes from the rise in the cost of raw materials [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell. The spot price also decreased, and the inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the National Day holiday, steel demand was weak, and inventory accumulated. Although the macro - environment is turning loose, the short - term weak reality is difficult to reverse. The steel price may decline, and attention should be paid to policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: On September 30, the iron ore futures price fell slightly. During the holiday, the TSI iron ore price rose. Two news events affected the Singapore iron ore market, but the price returned to stability [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the holiday, steel mills maintained production, and overseas ore shipments were stable. The short - term iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the glass futures price fell, and the spot price in some regions rose. The inventory decreased. The soda ash futures price fell, and the spot price decreased. The inventory decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is in a wide - range volatile pattern, with weak terminal demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term. The soda ash market is stable with narrow fluctuations, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [34][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On September 30, the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices fell. The spot price also decreased. The prices of both are in the shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may experience a short - term downward correction, but in the long - term, it may have the value of long - position allocation. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trend of the black sector [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: On September 30, the industrial silicon futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable. The polysilicon futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable [41][43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply - demand is stable in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile. The polysilicon price may have a short - term decline risk, and attention should be paid to policy changes [42][44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the prices of Japanese rubber and Singapore rubber rose slightly. The Thai spot prices were mixed. The开工 rate of domestic tire enterprises was different, and the inventory decreased [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a medium - term long - position thinking. In the short - term, it is recommended to set a stop - loss, enter short - term long positions quickly, and consider partial hedging operations [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: During the National Day, the international crude oil market fluctuated. The WTI and Brent crude oil prices were at a certain level. The US API data showed that the Cushing inventory decreased. The OPEC meeting decided on a "principle - based low - speed production increase" [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC's production increase plan will suppress the upside space of oil prices. Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: During the holiday, overseas crude oil prices fluctuated. Before the holiday, the methanol spot and futures prices changed. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [53][54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol supply - demand situation has improved, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities on dips [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the urea spot price in some regions decreased. Before the holiday, the futures price rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [55][56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea price is at a low level. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene spot and futures prices fell. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the approaching seasonal peak season. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price fell. The spot price decreased, and the cost was stable. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [59][60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC supply - demand situation is poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price fell. The spot price decreased. The supply increased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol supply is high. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price fell. The spot price decreased. The supply and demand both increased, and the inventory increased [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price fell. The CFR price rose. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene is expected to accumulate inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose. The spot price was stable. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may fluctuate upward. The cost has support, and the demand is expected to increase [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose. The spot price was stable. The supply was under pressure, and the demand increased. The inventory was under pressure [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure [71]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the domestic pig price fell, the supply increased, and the demand was weak [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The pig price is expected to be weak in the short - term. It is recommended to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse hedging. Attention should be paid to post - holiday fluctuations [74]. Eggs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the domestic egg price fell, the supply was large, and the demand was weak [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The price may be weak after the holiday, but there may be support from potential inventory transfer. It is recommended to wait and see [76]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, the CBOT soybean price rose. The domestic soybean meal spot price changed slightly. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress was faster than before [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. The price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [78]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may decrease. The Malaysian palm oil price rose during the holiday [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil and fat prices are expected to be strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. During the holiday, the raw sugar price changed little. The Brazilian sugar production data was released [81][82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the large - scale. It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [83]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. During the holiday, the US cotton price fell. The domestic cotton purchase price was lower than last year, and the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" was weak [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton price is likely to be weak after the National Day. The cost support is around 12860 - 13130 yuan/ton [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed may further ease monetary policy this year, which has an impact on various financial and commodity markets [1][11]. - During the National Day holiday, the cross - regional passenger flow in China increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and Chinese equity assets rose slightly but underperformed globally [2]. - The supply side is the key factor affecting the price trends of various commodities, and different commodities face different supply and demand situations [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump announced that Israel and Hamas signed the first phase of the peace plan, and the Fed's meeting minutes indicated that further easing might be appropriate this year [10][11]. - Gold prices rose to a record high of $4059 and then fell back, increasing by about 5% during the holiday due to risk - aversion sentiment. Short - term, the positive factors are fully priced, and there is a risk of a pullback [11]. - Investment advice: Be cautious of the risk of a decline due to long - position profit - taking after the price hits a new high [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Macron plans to appoint a new prime minister, Trump said Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on hostage release and troop withdrawal, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting minutes showed internal differences on the number of interest - rate cuts [13][14][15]. - The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term, and the market's risk appetite continues to rise [16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will remain volatile in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Meta and Apple are about to reach a settlement with the EU Commission on antitrust cases, and the US Senate rejected the bipartisan temporary appropriation bill again [19][20]. - The Fed's meeting minutes showed internal differences among officials, but the market's optimistic sentiment towards AI and interest - rate cuts remains high, and the market is expected to remain strong [21]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to maintain a strong trend after a small adjustment [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's Ambassador to the US called for expanding China - US cooperation, and the cross - regional passenger flow during the National Day holiday increased by 6.2% year - on - year [23][24]. - Chinese equity assets rose slightly during the holiday but underperformed globally. The market is still in a structural pattern, and the rhythm is more important than the position [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market is in a structural pattern, and rhythm is more important than position [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, and the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 2422 billion yuan [27][28]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first half of October and may strengthen after the 14th Five - Year Plan policies are implemented [28]. - Investment advice: The bond market is expected to fluctuate and bottom out in the short term. Short - term trading should be cautious, and medium - term long positions can be considered on dips [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is about to start the B50 road test [29]. - During the holiday, Malaysian palm oil led the rise in the overseas oil market. The market predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline slightly in September [30]. - Investment advice: The domestic market is expected to make up for the rise after the holiday, but be cautious of a pullback after a high opening. In the long - term, go long after the clear signal of production reduction in the producing areas in the fourth quarter [30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The safety inspection in the Ordos steam coal market remains strict, and the coal price is expected to remain weak seasonally in October [31]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain weak in October, and pay attention to the policy game after the long - term agreement price [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Japan's Nippon Steel and Champion Iron are promoting the Kami iron ore project [32]. - During the holiday, the iron ore price fluctuated narrowly around $104. The downstream finished - product market was weak, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [32][33]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In September, China's soybean imports and crushing volume decreased month - on - month, and the US soybean old - crop inventory as of September 1 was lower than expected [34][35]. - The Brazilian soybean sowing progress reached 8.2% as of October 4. The CBOT soybean price rose slightly during the holiday. The US government shutdown suspended the release of relevant reports [37]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate temporarily, and Sino - US relations are the main influencing factor [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The EU plans to impose a 50% tariff on steel imports outside the quota [40]. - During the holiday, the overseas metal prices rose slightly, and the steel price is expected to rise slightly after the holiday, but the inventory accumulation during the holiday will suppress the spot price. Pay attention to the terminal demand [40]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a range - bound mindset after the holiday and pay attention to the demand intensity [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was stable, and the futures price of the main contract CJ601 fell [42]. - The supply in Xinjiang is normal, and the demand in the north - south distribution areas is stable. The new - season output and old - crop inventory are still being debated [42]. - Investment advice: Hold a wait - and - see attitude or conduct short - term operations in the short term, and pay attention to the fruit development in the producing areas and downstream consumption [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The ICSG predicts that the global copper mine production will increase by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, and there will be a supply surplus in 2025 and a shortage in 2026 [43][44]. - Teck Resources lowered its copper production forecast for its Chilean flagship mine, and Aurubis raised the European copper premium for 2026 [45][46]. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - position strategy unilaterally, and pay attention to the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [47]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The resumption of production of a small lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed to the end of October [48]. - The supply of lead has improved, and the demand is stable. The Shanghai lead price may fluctuate upward [50]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips unilaterally and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the monthly spread [50]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - 29Metals withdrew its zinc production guidance due to an earthquake, and the resumption of production of a small lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed to the end of October [51][52]. - The LME zinc price is supported, and the domestic zinc export window may open. The inventory is expected to rise after the holiday [53]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude unilaterally, and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity brought by the opening of the export window [53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The expansion project of Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.'s polysilicon plant is under environmental protection acceptance [54][55]. - The polysilicon price may remain flat, and the component price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [55][56]. - Investment advice: The market may fluctuate widely between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton in October. Pay attention to the range - bound operation opportunities [57]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The SASAC called for抵制 "involution - style" competition [58]. - The inventory of industrial silicon is expected to accumulate slightly in September - October and decrease slightly in November - December [59]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing the price [59]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia will re - implement the annual RKAB system in 2026 [60]. - During the holiday, the LME nickel price was strong. The nickel ore price is expected to rise, and the nickel iron and intermediate product prices are expected to remain strong, but the refined nickel inventory is under pressure [61]. - Investment advice: Conduct range - bound trading in the short term, and go long at low levels from a configuration perspective [62]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Arabia's October CP official prices fell, and the US C3 inventory decreased [63][64]. - The PG price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. Pay attention to the start - stop changes of PDH plants after the import cost drops [64]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the start - stop changes of PDH plants after the import cost drops [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia will gradually increase oil production, and the US EIA crude oil inventory increased [65][66]. - International oil prices rebounded after falling during the holiday. The release of supply by oil - producing countries is the key factor affecting the price [66]. - Investment advice: The decline of oil prices depends on whether the supply of oil - producing countries can be effectively released [67]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of bottle chip factories were mostly stable, with some slight decreases [68][69]. - The polyester raw material prices fell, and the bottle chip prices were under pressure. The demand is expected to be weak in the long term [70]. - Investment advice: The absolute price of bottle chips is at a low level, and the inventory of factories has decreased. Pay attention to the sustainability of production cuts and new capacity launches [70]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk said that the freight volume from China to Latin America and Africa has increased [71]. - During the National Day holiday, the spot index fell below 1050, and the short - term market may be weak. Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities after the over - decline of the 12 - contract [71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities after the over - decline of the 12 - contract [72].

Core Insights - The stock of Yuzhi Agriculture (00875) has seen a significant transaction, with shareholders depositing shares into Funderstone Securities, amounting to a market value of HKD 33.6967 million, representing 7.71% of the total [1] Group 1 - On October 2, Yuzhi Agriculture announced that all conditions precedent for the placement agreement had been met, and the completion of the placement was executed on the same date according to the terms and conditions of the agreement [1] - A total of 91.0217 million shares were successfully placed at a price of HKD 0.29 per share, which accounts for approximately 16.7% of the company's issued share capital immediately following the completion of the placement [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown for over a week due to a stalemate between the two parties on the budget bill, affecting public services and potentially putting over 800,000 federal employees on unpaid leave [1] - The Federal Aviation Administration reported significant delays at major airports due to a shortage of air traffic controllers caused by the shutdown, with warnings that if the shutdown continues into November, millions of Americans' Thanksgiving plans could be disrupted [1] - The White House's Office of Management and Budget is preparing to allocate $12 to $13 billion from internal accounts of the U.S. Department of Agriculture to assist farmers affected by government tariff policies, but the agricultural aid plan has been delayed due to the shutdown [1] Group 2 - The tourism industry is projected to lose $1 billion for each week of the shutdown, with national parks losing $1 million in ticket revenue daily and surrounding businesses losing $77 million each day [2] - The shutdown may negatively impact market sentiment due to threats of layoffs and actual unemployment, potentially exacerbating risks in the labor market and weakening consumer confidence [2] - The White House's stance on unpaid wages for furloughed federal employees has shifted, with a memo stating that these employees have no right to back pay, contradicting decades of precedent [2] Group 3 - Initially, the Trump administration aimed to use the shutdown as an opportunity for large-scale layoffs of federal employees, but internal concerns about political risks have led to a postponement of these plans [3] - Trump expressed a willingness to reach a "correct agreement" with Democrats, indicating a potential signal of compromise from the Republican side, but Democrats responded negatively, insisting on maintaining healthcare subsidies before negotiations [3] - The ongoing dispute between the two parties centers on whether to resolve the funding issue first or to ensure the extension of healthcare subsidies, with no clear path to compromise currently evident [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint report by the International Strategic Research Center and the Council on Foreign Relations criticizes the current U.S. trade policies, particularly escalating tariffs, which are pushing the economy towards a cliff, threatening both economic foundations and global influence [2][11]. Summary by Sections Tariff Implementation and Effects - The U.S. began imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum products in 2018, with rates of 25% and 10%, affecting neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico, leading to retaliatory tariffs and increased logistics costs [4]. - The trade volume between the U.S. and Mexico is projected to be $840 billion in 2024, and with Canada at $762 billion, the tariffs have strained relationships and increased operational costs for businesses [4]. Impact on China and Specific Industries - The first round of tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods began in July 2018, with subsequent rounds increasing the total to $360 billion by May 2019, significantly impacting the technology sector and causing price increases for American households [6]. - American families are estimated to spend an additional $1,300 annually due to these tariffs, while farmers, particularly soybean producers, have faced losses amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars [6]. Supply Chain Disruptions - The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated existing supply chain issues, particularly in the automotive industry due to chip shortages, leading to factory shutdowns [8]. - The Phase One trade agreement signed in January 2020 aimed to alleviate some tariffs but has faced implementation challenges, with many tariffs remaining in place [8]. Economic Consequences and Global Relations - The report highlights that the U.S. trade war has not only failed to reduce trade deficits but has also damaged relationships with allies, leading to increased tensions and a loss of trust [11]. - The tariffs are described as an "invisible tax" on the public, with businesses increasingly shifting production overseas, as seen with companies like Harley-Davidson [13]. Long-term Implications - The report warns that the U.S. is losing its global leadership position due to these trade policies, which undermine economic security and innovation [13]. - The long-term economic costs of these tariffs are expected to outweigh any short-term political gains, with potential negative impacts on sectors like technology and agriculture [11][13].

Global Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with notable gains in the Nikkei 225 index, which rose by 6.72% during the holiday period [1][4] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.8%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.87% [1][4] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, decreased by 4.55% [4] Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.86%, while the Japanese yen depreciated significantly by 2.55% against the dollar [2][4] - The Chinese yuan experienced a minor depreciation of 0.21% [2][4] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached a historic high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, with a 3.31% increase [2][4] - The energy sector faced declines, with WTI crude oil dropping by 1.61% to $62.16 per barrel [2][4] - Agricultural products showed mixed results, with soybean oil rising by 2.80% and wheat falling by 2.22% [2][4] Domestic Consumption and Travel - During the National Day holiday, travel activity was robust, with 826 million trips taken, representing 59% of the national population [6] - Total tourism spending exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase in service consumption, which accounted for 53% of total consumption [6] Real Estate Market - New policies aimed at optimizing the real estate market were introduced during the holiday, with over 470 measures implemented across approximately 200 cities [7] - The core cities are expected to see increased new housing supply, supporting new home sales [7] Economic Data and Government Actions - The US federal government experienced a shutdown, halting the release of key economic data, including employment statistics and inflation reports [11][12] - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $333.87 billion by the end of September, reflecting a 0.5% rise [10] International Relations and Trade - Mexico initiated multiple anti-dumping investigations against Chinese products, reflecting rising trade tensions [9] - The US announced a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks, impacting trade dynamics [17] Energy Sector Developments - OPEC+ decided to maintain its production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November [24] - The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US remained stable at 549, down 6.15% year-on-year [25] Metal and Mining Sector Insights - Copper premiums reached a historic high due to supply issues in Chile, with Aurubis setting a premium of $315 per ton for 2026 [39] - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for 2026 to $10,500 per ton, driven by supply constraints [41] Agricultural Products and Food Supply - The USDA reported a decrease of 8% in US old crop soybean stocks as of September 1, totaling 316 million bushels [49] - Brazil's sugar exports in September fell by 16% year-on-year, while cotton exports increased by 5% [66][64]