阿里巴巴-W（09988）：电商老兵的"云上起舞"与即时零售豪赌 本文首发日期：2025年12月6日 没有港股通的可以关注以下ETF标地：费率较低，阿里巴巴含量较高 | 秦 代码 | | 名称 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 513260 | 融 恒生科技ETF基金 | 0.25阿里9 | | 2 | 159636 | ■ 港股通科技30ETF | 0.52阿里17 | | 3 | 501301 | 香港大盘LOF | 0.6阿里17 | | 4 | | 513010 | o mosterial w | 一、公司基本面：双轮驱动下的"增长换轨" 阿里巴巴的业务可概括为 "左手帮商家开淘宝店，右手给企业租云计算服务器"——这家1999年成立的互联网巨头，以电商起家，如今 已进化成覆盖核心电商、云计算、数字媒体、即时零售的生态型平台。简单说，你深夜刷淘宝下单的衣服、上班用的钉钉视频会议、 甚至早餐通过"淘宝闪购"点的外卖，都跑在它的商业操作系统上。但这家"数字经济体"正面临增长模式切换：传统电商增速放缓，而 云业务与即时零售成为新引擎，后者尤其以利润换规模，引发市场争议。 ...

Core Insights - Ele.me has officially announced that its app will be fully transformed into "Taobao Flash Purchase" after the latest update, signaling a strategic shift within Alibaba Group towards a focus on large-scale consumer platforms [1][2] - The chairman and CEO of Ele.me, Fan Yu, emphasized the unprecedented collaboration within the Alibaba family, showcasing the group's commitment to reshaping market dynamics and enhancing its capabilities in the consumer service sector [1][2] Company Strategy - The transformation of the Ele.me app is viewed as a significant signal of Alibaba Group's continued investment in the large consumer and service e-commerce sector [1][2] - Fan Yu highlighted the journey of Ele.me over the past 18 years, which has built a service system connecting hundreds of millions of users and millions of merchants, reflecting the company's foundational goals [1][2] Market Positioning - During a recent earnings call, Alibaba's management noted that Taobao Flash Purchase has successfully completed rapid scale expansion in its first phase, with economic efficiency optimization in the second phase meeting expectations [1][2] - This progress is seen as a foundation for the long-term sustainable development of the food delivery business and reinforces Alibaba's commitment to long-term investments in instant retail [1][2]

Group 1 - The core concept of "short drama + e-commerce" is gaining attention as a new consumption model, allowing users to purchase products featured in short dramas instantly, enhancing the shopping experience during events like "Double 11" [2][4] - The short drama market in China is projected to reach 505 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing the box office for the first time, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.2% expected until 2027 [3] - Platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin are actively integrating short dramas with e-commerce, creating a seamless flow from exposure to interaction and conversion, thus maximizing marketing potential [2][3] Group 2 - The integration of short dramas into e-commerce is seen as a new way to capture consumer attention, but there are concerns about whether this trend will lead to sustainable growth or is merely a temporary phenomenon [4] - Short dramas are reported to have a higher engagement and conversion rate compared to traditional advertising, making them an effective tool for brands to reach potential customers [4] - Some industry experts express skepticism about the compatibility of short dramas with e-commerce, suggesting that the insertion of shopping elements may disrupt user experience and not align well with content [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Amazon with a target price of $351.87 [7][5]. Core Insights - Amazon's recent re:Invent conference showcased significant updates, including the launch of the Trainium3 chip and enhancements to its Agent development ecosystem, which are expected to accelerate demand for AI agents by 2026 [1][2]. - The performance of the Trainium3 chip has improved significantly, with a 4.4x increase in computing power and a 4x increase in efficiency compared to its predecessor [2]. - The introduction of the Nova2 series models emphasizes high cost-effectiveness, catering to various applications including multimodal inference and image generation [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The financial projections for Amazon from 2025 to 2027 indicate adjusted net profits of $75.4 billion, $87 billion, and $110.5 billion respectively [5][13]. - The report utilizes a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, maintaining a target price of $351.87, which corresponds to a 42.9x PE ratio for 2026 [5][15]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are projected at $718 billion and $806 billion respectively, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 12.5% [11][23]. Product and Service Developments - The Agent development ecosystem has seen over 2 million downloads of the AgentCore platform within five months, with new features enhancing its capabilities [3]. - The Strands Agents SDK has been updated to support TypeScript and edge devices, broadening the scope for developers [3]. - The Nova2 series models include various products tailored for specific tasks, reinforcing Amazon's commitment to high-performance AI solutions [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Amazon has deployed over 1 million Trainium chips, with a significant portion of inference tasks on Bedrock being handled by these chips, indicating a strong integration of self-developed hardware within its cloud services [2]. - The report highlights Amazon's strategy to align its chip architecture with NVIDIA's ecosystem, which is expected to enhance performance and reduce costs [2].

走进2025年末，城市街景正在悄然变色，淘宝闪购骑士纷纷换上了橙黑新制服。12月5日上午，阿里巴巴官方正式宣布：即日起"饿了么"APP在更新至最新 版本后将全面焕新为"淘宝闪购"。这标志着阿里在即时零售领域的布局进入新阶段。 可见这一次，阿里巴巴的野心远不止外卖市场份额，而是要通过淘宝闪购这台稳定的高频增长引擎，完成"远场、中场、近场"的一体化拼图，构建一个全新 的大消费闭环。正如阿里高层明确提出的目标："三年内为平台带来一万亿元人民币的商品交易总额"。这不仅仅是份额的争夺，更是对整个大消费版图的重 构。 01品牌焕新背后：当"万物"涌入近场生活圈 "淘宝闪购"的出现是一切故事的开端。2025年4月淘宝闪购出现在了手淘的显眼位置，"用淘宝闪购点外卖更便宜"成了消费者对它的初印象。 2025是属于淘宝闪购的一年。从4月"淘宝小时达"升级为"淘宝闪购"开始，到8月阿里业务的深度整合，日订单峰值已达1.2亿单，周日均订单量达8000万 单，月度交易买家数突破3亿，饿了么携手淘宝闪购在订单规模、用户增长和运力覆盖方面持续突破。 动辄十几元的补贴吸引和创造了大量的需求，QuestMobile数据显示，7月淘宝APP闪购 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Alibaba Group is a leading global e-commerce internet technology group that restructured its organization in June, merging Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce business unit, and in August, it adjusted its business structure into four main segments: China E-commerce Group, International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and Others, focusing on "E-commerce, Cloud + AI" as its core business, enhancing organizational concentration and cohesion [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Instant retail is crucial for maintaining e-commerce traffic advantages, with Alibaba entering the market in May through food delivery services. User activity metrics show a year-on-year increase in Daily Active Users (DAU) from May to October, with growth rates of +3%, +7%, +17%, +19%, +12%, and +9% respectively [1] - Order volume peaked at 120 million in July, with market share for Taobao Flash Purchase and Ele.me rising significantly from 29.4% in Q4 2024 to 42.8% in Q3 2025 [1] - Delivery capability has seen over 240% growth in the number of delivery personnel from April to August 2025 [1] - User Experience (UE) investments are at their highest in FY26Q2, with losses halved from peak levels, and improvements expected as scale and efficiency increase [1] Group 3: AI Strategy - Alibaba Cloud is recognized as a "full-stack AI company," pursuing top-tier self-research capabilities in AI chips, cloud computing platforms, and foundational large model capabilities. It operates in 29 public cloud regions and 92 availability zones globally, with over 3,200 edge nodes [2] - Annual capital expenditures exceed 100 billion yuan, with the Qwen series large models significantly upgraded to Qwen3-Max, enhancing performance and creating a closed-loop with applications like Qwen APP, Quark, Taobao, and DingTalk [2] - The latest PPU chip technology from Alibaba's T-head is at the forefront domestically [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The traditional shelf e-commerce advantage is expected to stabilize market share, while cloud business driven by AI shows significant future growth potential. Adjusted net profits for FY2026-2028 are projected at 107.9 billion, 149.4 billion, and 175.8 billion yuan, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 24.8, 17.9, and 15.2 times [2] - The e-commerce business (excluding instant retail) is assigned an 11 times earnings valuation (EBITDA basis), while the cloud business is given a 7 times price-to-sales valuation, with other businesses currently not contributing to valuation. The target market capitalization is set at 3.36 trillion yuan, with a target price of 192.48 HKD, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [2]

南京"双十二" 近百场活动点燃消费热潮 "双十二"即将拉开序幕，南京市商务局积极组织南京本地企业、各大电商平台联袂启动"双十二"大促，通过政府补贴、平台优惠、商家让利等多重手段， 开展线上线下联动促销，为大家带来更多实惠的选择，点燃冬季消费热潮。 家电焕新正当时 政企联动补贴旺 重点电商平台企业通过多重让利、专场折扣等形式，进一步激活家电和3C消费市场。 苏宁易购从12月6日至12月12日期间举办"1212好价节"活动，聚焦冬季刚需与生活品质提升，重点主推洗烘套装、烘干机、取暖设备等，同时门店还上新 多款热门3C产品。 活动期间每一位用户可领取1080元大额券包，可用于购买家电、家居商品。 南京合斯满网络科技有限公司独家承接 A.O.史密斯品牌线上渠道运营业务，覆盖京东、天猫、易购、国美在线、唯品会、云集等核心平台，重磅推出国 补级优惠价格，同步搭配大额实用赠品与专属权益，针对燃气核心产品，更额外赠送全额安装材料费，切实为消费者减负，带来高性价比购物体验。 品质好物放心购 电商专享实惠多 "双十二"期间，南京市电商品牌企业主动让利，推出特色活动，全面提升购物体验与性价比，满足消费者多元化、品质化需求。 视客眼 ...

近日，Snapchat携手凯度发布首个"Z世代最喜爱的中国全球化品牌50强"榜单，腾讯、小米与SHEIN(希 音)位列前三。其中，SHEIN(希音)在电商品类中排名第一，显示出其对年轻消费群体的强大吸引力。 | | Z世代最喜爱的 1 中国全球化品牌 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 品牌 | 品类 | Z 世代品牌力 | | | Tencent | 游戏 | 1391 | | 2 | Xiaomi | 3C | 1241 | | 3 | SHEIN | 电商 | 1197 | | 4 | Huawei | 3C | 1187 | | 5 | miHoYo | 游戏 | 1144 | | 6 | Hisense | 3C | 1118 | | 7 | Lenovo | 3C | 1113 | | 8 | Century Games | 游戏 | 1107 | | 9 | TCL | 3C | 1104 | | 10 | Habby | 游戏 | 1088 | 游供应商的赋能，SHEIN(希音)带动传统行业向数字化、智能化、绿色化迈进，助力更多中国制造高效 拓展全球市 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices opened slightly higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.49%, S&P 500 up 0.51%, and Nasdaq up 0.65% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 1.5% [1] Individual Stock Movements - Netflix's stock initially dropped by 4.4% but later turned positive after announcing a deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's film studio and streaming business for $27.75 per share, valuing the company at approximately $82.7 billion [2] - In the tech sector, Facebook and Google saw gains of over 1%, while Apple and Nvidia experienced declines [3] Chinese Stocks - Chinese tech stocks showed strong performance, with Baidu rising nearly 5%, Dingdong Maicai surging over 11%, Huya up 8%, and New Oriental and Zhihu both increasing by over 3% [3] Commodity Prices - Precious metals saw significant increases, with gold rising by 0.72% to nearly $4,240 per ounce and silver increasing by over 2.5% [5] - Copper prices surged by 2% to $11,679.5 per ton, driven by strong demand in the renewable energy and AI sectors [7] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell below $90,000, dropping over 2% to a low of $89,953.38, while Ethereum and Solana also experienced declines [5][8] - Over 110,000 traders faced liquidation in the past 24 hours, totaling approximately $365 million [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for September unexpectedly fell to 2.8%, below the expected 2.9%, marking a three-month low [9] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [9]

Investment Dynamics - Baolan Gold has completed over 100 million RMB in Series A financing, led by Challenger Capital, with participation from Kering Group and Shunwei Capital [3] - The funds will be used to deepen brand value, expand channel layout, upgrade supply chain resilience, and empower core talent, further consolidating its advantage in the high-end gold jewelry sector [3] Acquisition Dynamics - JD.com has acquired 85.2% of Ceconomy, a leading European consumer electronics retailer, for approximately 2.2 billion euros (about 181 billion RMB) [6] - This acquisition allows JD.com to access Ceconomy's established offline store network and local supply chain, aiming to transform stores into instant retail warehouses and reduce delivery times from 2-3 days to hours [6] - This deal marks the largest acquisition by a Chinese e-commerce company in Europe, enhancing JD.com's overseas business growth [6] - Canadian plant-based snack company Trubar has been acquired by Turkish food company ETİ Gıda for approximately 201 million CAD (about 10 billion RMB) [8] - The acquisition is expected to be completed by Q1 2026, with Trubar's shares delisting from the Toronto Stock Exchange [8] - The deal may open a window for mergers among local startups in the Canadian plant snack market [8] Brand Dynamics - COS, a brand under H&M Group, will reopen its flagship store in Beijing's Sanlitun on December 24, with plans for additional stores in Dalian, Jinan, and Wuhan by early 2026 [9] - The flagship store's design integrates contemporary minimalist aesthetics with Beijing's cultural heritage, reflecting the brand's alignment with local culture [9] - COS aims to strengthen its presence in first-tier and new first-tier cities in China [9] - Let Tea has launched its "Guava Oil Kumquat Jasmine Tea" across all channels, expanding its no-sugar fruit tea category [16] - The new product features a health-focused formula with zero sugar and calories, combining guava and kumquat flavors for a unique taste [16] - This launch is expected to enhance Let Tea's position as a leader in the no-sugar fruit tea segment and drive industry upgrades [16] - French fashion brand Etam has announced its complete withdrawal from the Chinese market, closing its online stores on platforms like Tmall and Xiaohongshu [17] - This marks the end of Etam's operations in China after over 30 years in the market [17] Personnel Dynamics - Nike has announced significant executive changes, including the elimination of the Chief Commercial Officer position and the departure of the Chief Technology Officer [21] - A new Chief Operating Officer has been appointed, with expanded responsibilities including leadership of the technology department [21] - These changes are part of Nike's strategy to drive growth and performance [21] - Valentino has appointed Davide Tosi as Chief Merchandising Officer to lead global product planning and pricing strategies [24] - Tosi's experience with brands like Gucci and Prada is expected to help Valentino address revenue declines [24] - Former public relations head of Shui Jing Fang, Hong Zonghua, has joined PepsiCo as Vice President of Corporate Affairs for the Asia-Pacific region [27] - Hong's extensive background in public relations and government relations in foreign consumer companies is seen as a valuable asset for PepsiCo [27] - Fendi has appointed Francesca Leoni as the new Global Chief Communications Officer, succeeding Cristiana Monfardini [30] - Leoni brings over 25 years of experience in the luxury goods sector, aiming to enhance Fendi's brand strategy and public relations efforts [30]