2025 年 07 月 31 日 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕反弹受限 豆一：偏弱震荡 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4153 | +17（-0.41%） 4126 -26（-0.63%） | | 货 期 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2509 | 3010 | +36（+1.21%） +0（+0.00%） 3001 | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 996 | -12.25（-1.21%） | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 274.3 | n a -2.0（-0.72%） | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | 2900～2940， M2509+30/+40/+60， | 较昨持平至+50； 8月10日前提货M2509-100， 持平； 8-9月 持平或-10； 9月M2509+0/+50， 持平； 10月M2601+30/+70， | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 持平； | 10-11月M2601+30/+60/+80/+110， 持平 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2680 - 2740. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the impact of China's tariff policy on Canadian rapeseed residue cakes. In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a 2680 - 2740 range oscillation. The fundamentals show that the low opening rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. The spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and although the import of rapeseed is increasing, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is low. The tariff on Canadian rapeseed residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact. The basis is at - 95, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory increased by 25.83% week - on - week to 1.9 million tons and decreased by 44.12% year - on - year, which is bullish. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish. The main positions have changed from long to short with capital inflow, which is bearish. In the short - term, rapeseed meal is expected to return to range oscillation due to factors such as low rapeseed inventory and tariff policies [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good outlook. The slightly reduced annual output of Canadian rapeseed supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing with uncertain results. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly affected by the reduced output in the EU and lower - than - expected output in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting effect on rapeseed production, and the potential increase in global geopolitical conflicts still supports commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and residue cakes and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. Bearish factors are the listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12][13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 21 to July 30 shows the average trading prices, trading volumes, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures and spot price summary shows the prices of the main 2509 contract, the far - month 2601 contract, and the spot price in Fujian from July 22 to July 30. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipt statistics show that the warehouse receipts have been 0 for several consecutive days. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet and the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 to 2023 show data on harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. The import of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has slightly increased, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has slightly increased [14][16][25]. 5. Position Data - Not specifically summarized in the provided content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and the trends of related products. Traders can pay attention to the range of 2680 - 2740 and the changes in factors such as inventory and tariffs [9].

CBOT农产品晚间分析：美豆直逼10美元心理关口，是触底反弹，还是将打开通往9.7美元年度低点的大 门？当所有利空都已被定价，严重超卖的农产品市场会否迎来报复性反弹？ 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the contrasting trends in soybean prices, with U.S. soybeans struggling under expectations of a bumper harvest, while domestic soybean meal prices are holding firm, raising questions about whether this is a short-term trap for short sellers or a sign of underlying strength [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean prices are under pressure due to expectations of a large harvest, indicating a bearish outlook for the commodity [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices are rising against the trend of U.S. soybeans, suggesting potential market anomalies or strong demand [1] - Institutions are warning that soybean arrivals in Q4 are expected to "significantly decline," which could impact supply dynamics [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of the expected high yield of new cotton crops and the reality of the shortage of old - crop inventories, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent. From late July to early August is a window period for multiple policies and industry events. The content of domestic policy meetings, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the actualization of the high yield of new cotton, whether the import sliding - duty quota will be increased and the magnitude of the increase all have a significant impact on the Zhengzhou cotton outlook, especially the increase of the import sliding - duty quota has a greater impact on the supply - demand of old crops and near - term contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Items Domestic Cotton Futures - On July 29, CF01 was 14025, down 40 or - 0.28% from July 28; CF09 was 13925, down 150 or - 1.07% from July 28; CF09 - 01 was - 100, down 110 from July 28 [3]. Domestic Cotton Spot - On July 29, the price in Xinjiang was 15431, down 42 or - 0.27% from July 28; in Henan it was 15634, down 46 or - 0.29%; in Shandong it was 15562, down 48 or - 0.31%. The Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1506, up 108 from July 28 [3]. Domestic Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - On July 29, the domestic cotton yarn futures CY was 19995, down 240 or - 1.19% from July 28. The C32S price index of domestic cotton yarn spot was 20720, down 60 or - 0.29% from July 28 [3]. US Cotton Spot - On July 29, the CT price was 68 USD/ pound, unchanged from July 28. The arrival price was 77.60, up 0.1 or 0.13% from July 28. The 1% quota pick - up price was 13715, up 17 or 0.12% from July 28. The sliding - duty pick - up price was 14425, up 5 or 0.03% from July 28 [3]. Spread Data - On July 29, the yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 5970, down 200 from July 28; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 710, down 12 from July 28; the domestic - foreign spread (spot) was 1847, down 65 from July 28 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][5][8] 2. Report's Core View - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply - loose pattern. Zhengzhou cotton prices are restricted in their upward space, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices. Sugar prices will mainly fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term. Pulp prices are affected by supply pressure and weak demand, and it's difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 27, the budding rate of U.S. cotton was 80%, 6 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 8 percentage points slower than last year; the good - quality rate was 55%, 5 percentage points higher than last year and the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the international cotton market lacks clear direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be supply - loose. U.S. cotton prices are expected to fluctuate. Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is depleting fast, but new cotton is expected to be abundant, and terminal demand is weak. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou cotton has an upward trend, but the supply is sufficient in the new year, and the upward space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,867 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Analysts expect the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July to be 48.3 million tons (up 11.3% year - on - year), sugar production to be 3.3 million tons (up 12.5% year - on - year), and ethanol production to be 2.19 billion liters (up 2.3% year - on - year) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in an increasing - production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices. However, the narrow sugar - alcohol price difference and Indian policies may lead to short - term rebounds. In China, domestic sugar sales are fast, but imports may suppress prices. New sugar listing will increase downward pressure [5] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The prices of imported wood pulp showed different trends. Some softwood pulp prices declined, some hardwood pulp prices were in a stalemate, and some chemical mechanical pulp prices increased [6] Market Analysis - Pulp prices fluctuated. The anti - involution policy boosted the market, but supply pressure remains as imports increased in the first half of 2025 and domestic production capacity will increase. Demand is weak both at home and abroad, and terminal demand improvement is limited in the second half of the year [7] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term price increases are driven by macro - sentiment, and there is a chance to short at high prices after the macro - stimulus ends [8]

Core Viewpoint - Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans experienced a decline on July 29, with all major contracts falling in price [1] Group 1: Price Movements - The most active December corn contract closed at 410.75 cents per bushel, down 3.25 cents, a decrease of 0.79% from the previous trading day [1] - The September wheat contract settled at 529.75 cents per bushel, down 8.75 cents, reflecting a decline of 1.62% [1] - The November soybean contract ended at 1008.25 cents per bushel, decreasing by 3.25 cents, which is a drop of 0.32% [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts believe that despite cooler weather in the U.S. from early to mid-August, the previous day's storm damage will not have a significant impact on corn and soybean crops in the Midwest, contributing to the decline in futures prices [1] - Recent weather forecasts indicate that Kansas, northeastern regions, and most of the eastern Midwest will experience rainfall in the next 6-10 days, which is expected to benefit crop growth [1] - The entire central U.S. is anticipated to have moderate temperatures in early August, with cool temperatures and adequate soil moisture conditions favorable for crop development [1]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a majority of contracts decline, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.79% to 16.56 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 1.00% to 67.66 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 2.04% to $8344.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures dropped by 1.41% to 297.45 cents per pound [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures contracts closed lower across the board on July 29, with soybean futures down by 0.32% at 1008.25 cents per bushel, corn futures down by 0.79% at 410.75 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down by 1.62% at 529.75 cents per bushel [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures experienced a decline of 0.32% [1] - Corn futures fell by 0.79% [1] - Wheat futures decreased by 1.62% [1]

CBOT农产品晚间分析：在完美天气与超预期优良率的双重打压下，农产品市场空头氛围浓郁，当丰产 预期成为"明牌"，下跌通道彻底打开了吗？ 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...