Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry ETF managed by E Fund has shown positive performance, with significant inflows and growth in both scale and shares, reflecting strong investor interest in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of February 4, 2026, the China Petroleum Industry Index (H11057) increased by 0.41%, with key stocks like Sinopec rising by 3.17% and Wanhua Chemical by 3.09% [1]. - Over the past two weeks, the E Fund chemical industry ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.55%, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Volume - The E Fund chemical industry ETF had a turnover rate of 3.05% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 48.77 million yuan [1]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week reached 160 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Fund Size and Shares - The latest size of the E Fund chemical industry ETF reached 1.595 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [1]. - The total shares of the ETF have also reached 1.466 billion, which is a one-year high [1]. Group 4: Net Inflows - The E Fund chemical industry ETF has seen continuous net inflows for 13 days, with the highest single-day net inflow reaching 391 million yuan, totaling 1.371 billion yuan in net inflows [1]. - The average daily net inflow stands at 105 million yuan [1]. Group 5: Top Holdings - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum Industry Index account for 55.71% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Sinopec [2].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing strong capital inflow, with the chemical ETF (159870) seeing a net subscription of 299 million units [1] - High prices of sulfuric acid and sulfur are impacting the cost of wet-process phosphoric acid, leading some wet-process phosphoric acid producers to potentially switch to lower-cost thermal phosphoric acid, which may increase the usage of yellow phosphorus [1] - The demand for phosphoric acid is expected to surge after the Spring Festival, but the production of yellow phosphorus may not keep pace with the increased demand, resulting in a supply-demand mismatch [1] Group 2 - Due to limited supply and a slight increase in demand, yellow phosphorus prices are likely to rise after the Spring Festival [2] - As of February 4, 2026, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) increased by 0.25%, with notable gains from companies such as Sankeshu (3.07%) and Hongda Co. (2.57%) [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 44.82% of the index, including major companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yilong Co. [2]

2月4日，A500ETF基金（512050）低开震荡，午后情绪修复向上。截至13点53分，跌幅收窄至 0.244%。持仓股方面，晶科能源20cm涨停，中集集团、TCL中环、中国东航10cm涨停。昨日该ETF获 得超3.6亿元资金净流入。 东方财富证券表示春季行情未完，小结构需要出现调整切换。相比高波动、高估值的资产，近期结构配 置可延着景气逻辑良好而本轮春季行情以来涨幅还并未极致演绎的板块挖掘，如电子、通信及非银金融 等。重点关注行业方向：电子、保险、传媒、机械设备、通信、化工等。重点关注主题：机器人、无人 驾驶、AI应用等。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 中国人民银行2月3日公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2月4日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中 标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。由于本月有7000亿元3个月期买断式逆 回购到期，因此在开展上述操作后，3个月期买断式逆回购将实现净投放1000亿元。这也是中国人民银 行在连续3个月等量续做3个月期买断式逆回购后，首次加量续做3个月期买断式逆回购。业内分析认 为，2月仍然是信贷投放较为集中的月份，叠加春节前取现因素影响，市场对流动性 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月高频数据跟踪 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 摘要： 生产端看，开工率边际回暖，工业品库存、产能利用率分化。开工率方 面，1 月，247 家高炉开工率 78.96%，略有抬升，但仍偏弱；电炉开工 率、螺纹钢开工率分别为 62.44%、38.77%，高于上月均值。水泥磨机开 工率为 27.92%，较上月回落；除沥青外，化工品开工率普遍回升：石油 沥青开工率均值为 26.23%，低于上月；纯碱、PVC、PTA 开工率均值分 别为 84.36%、79.12%、76.10%，均较上月明显提升。库存方面，冷 轧、热卷、浮法玻璃去库，环比增速分别为-3.58%、-7.91%、-7.63%， 螺纹钢、铁矿石、炼焦煤库存上升，环比增速分别为 4.57%、6.65%、 0.36；水泥库容比、水泥发运率环比回落，环比分别为-4.28%、 10.93%。产能利用率方面，焦化产能利用率略下降，录得 76.38%；电炉 产能利用率为 53.74%，较上期均值略提升；水泥熟料 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry ETF, E Fund (516570), has shown mixed performance with a slight decline of 0.46% recently, while the underlying index, the China Petroleum Industry Index (H11057), has also seen a minor drop of 0.16% as of February 4, 2026 [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of February 4, 2026, the China Petroleum Industry Index (H11057) decreased by 0.16% [1]. - The leading stocks in the index included China Petroleum, which rose by 3.02%, and Shanghai Petrochemical, which increased by 1.63% [1]. - The worst performers were Guangdong Hongda, which fell by 4.17%, and Zhongfu Shenying, which dropped by 2.11% [1]. Group 2: ETF Performance - The E Fund chemical industry ETF (516570) had a recent price of 1.09 yuan, with a two-week cumulative increase of 0.55%, ranking it in the top half of comparable funds [1]. - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 1.84% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 29.4586 million yuan [1]. - The ETF's total assets reached 1.595 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [1]. Group 3: Fund Flows - Over the past 13 days, the E Fund chemical industry ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day inflow of 391 million yuan, totaling 1.371 billion yuan in net inflows [1]. - The average daily net inflow for the ETF was 105 million yuan [1]. Group 4: Top Holdings - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum Industry Index accounted for 55.71% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short - term trading for coking coal; range - trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][5][7] - Non - ferrous metals: Waiting and seeing for copper, aluminum, and nickel; range - trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9][11] - Energy and chemicals: Range - trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly in a range [1][17][19] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][27][28] - Agriculture and livestock: Short - term shorting opportunities on rebounds for live pigs; hedging post - holiday contracts on rallies for eggs; cautious about chasing high for corn; expecting soybean meal to trade in a short - term range; expecting short - term limited回调 for oils and fats [1][29][34] 2. Core Views - The report provides comprehensive investment suggestions for various futures markets, considering factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic policies, and geopolitical situations. It emphasizes the need to pay attention to market trends, inventory changes, and policy impacts in different industries [1][5][7] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The market shows strong resilience. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.29%. The defense, machinery, and building materials sectors led the gains, while the banking, petrochemical, and coal sectors declined [5] - Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range. There is no obvious major negative news in the bond market, but there is no further impetus for interest rates to decline. After the repair since the beginning of the year, the space for bond yields to decline is limited [5] Black building materials - Double - coking coal is expected to trade in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has shown short - term fluctuations recently, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and coal mine inventory clearance [6][7] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range. On Tuesday, the rebar futures price traded in a range. The valuation is relatively low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term [7] - Glass is recommended to be bought on dips. Although there are negative factors such as inventory and demand, the futures price is relatively low, and there are positive news in the real estate sector. Technically, the short - side strength is weakening [7][8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper is expected to have high - level volatility, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Macro factors have dominated the market this week, causing copper prices to fluctuate sharply. The supply is still tight, but the demand is weakening. There is a risk of high - level correction before the Spring Festival [9] - Aluminum is expected to have high - level volatility, and increased waiting and seeing is recommended. The bauxite price is under pressure, and the alumina inventory is increasing. The demand for downstream aluminum processing enterprises is weakening, and short - term high - level volatility is expected [10][11] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Although the Indonesian nickel ore quota reduction has boosted the market, the fundamental situation is weak. Different nickel products have different supply - demand situations, and the price increase drive is insufficient [12][13] - Tin is expected to trade in a range. The domestic tin production and imports have changed. The semiconductor industry is recovering, but the supply of tin concentrate is tight. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand changes [13] - Gold and silver are expected to trade in a range. Trump's nomination of the new Fed chairman has led to an increase in hawkish expectations, but the central bank's gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. The medium - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up [14][15] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range. The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances in the Yichun mining area [16][17] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to have low - level wide - range volatility. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the domestic demand is weak. However, the export has growth potential. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [17] - Caustic soda is expected to have low - level volatility, and temporary waiting and seeing is recommended. The demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, and there is short - term delivery pressure. It may have support if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves [19] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease due to factors such as export increases and device maintenance, but the current valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [19] - Rubber is expected to trade in a range. The global supply is in the seasonal reduction stage, and the cost has support. However, the inventory is accumulating seasonally, and the market is expected to trade in a range in the short term [20][21] - Urea is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and the inventory level is relatively low. The price is expected to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [22][23] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range. The domestic supply is decreasing, the demand from the olefin industry is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak. The price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [24][25] - Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and there is inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival. The price increase space is limited [25][26] - Soda ash: Temporary waiting and seeing is recommended. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. After the supply contraction, the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated [26] Cotton and textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range. The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, with a decrease in production and an increase in consumption. The internal - external price difference is suppressing the domestic market, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [27][28] - Apples are expected to trade in a range. The packaging and shipping in the production areas are slightly accelerating, but the overall market is stable and weak, and some fruit farmers are eager to sell [28] - Jujubes are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [28] Agriculture and livestock - Live pigs are expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short term, the supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, the capacity reduction is slow, and it is necessary to be cautious about the price increase [29][30] - Eggs are expected to rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - holiday contracts on rallies. Considering the high probability of molting and extension of laying periods around the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will be postponed [31][32] - Corn's upward space is limited. In the short term, the market is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose in the 25/26 season, which restricts the price increase [33][34] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a low - level range. In the short term, the M2603 contract is expected to trade in a range, and the 05 contract is expected to face pressure at 2800 - 2850. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas weather and domestic policies [35] - Oils and fats are expected to have a limited回调. In the short term, the three major oils and fats are expected to回调 but with limited amplitude. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions on rebounds and wait to buy on dips [36][41]

Core Viewpoint - CIMC Enric (03899) has signed joint venture agreements with Qingshan Group and a gas supply agreement with Nanjing Steel, focusing on the "Coke Oven Gas to LNG and Methanol" project in Indonesia, marking the company's first overseas replication of its integrated steel and coke business model [1] Group 1: Project Details - The Indonesia Qingshan project is designed to have an annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of blue LNG and 100,000 tons of blue methanol, with CIMC Enric holding a controlling stake [1] - The Qingshan Industrial Park has an existing annual production capacity of over 10 million tons of coke [1] Group 2: Strategic Goals - The collaboration aims to promote the clean transformation and efficient utilization of by-products such as coke oven gas within the Qingshan Industrial Park [1] - The project seeks to leverage downstream industrial advantages to achieve capacity synergy and resource recycling, contributing to a green low-carbon industrial closed loop covering "resources—processing—application" [1] - This initiative is expected to help the region achieve a transformation that balances economic and environmental benefits [1]

摘要：【图】2025年9月河南省硫酸产量统计分析 2025年9月硫酸产量统计： 硫酸产量：42.4 万吨 同比增长：-18.5% 图2：河南省硫酸产量分月（累计值）统计图 图1：河南省硫酸产量分月（当月值）统计图 2025年1-9月硫酸产量统计： 硫酸产量：437.1 万吨 同比增长：3.1% 增速较上一年同期变化：低1.2个百分点 据统计，2025年1－9月，河南省规模以上工业企业硫酸产量与上年同期相比增长了3.1%，达437.1万 吨，增速较上一年同期低1.2个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国低2.3个百分点，约占同期全国规模 以上企业硫酸产量8329.56708万吨的比重为5.2%。详见下图： 增速较上一年同期变化：低29.6个百分点 据统计，2025年9月河南省规模以上工业企业硫酸产量与上年同期相比下降了18.5%，达42.4万吨，增速 较上一年同期低29.6个百分点，增速较同期全国低24.1个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业硫酸产量 923.86758万吨的比重为4.6%。 详见下图： 注：从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务 收入2000万元 ...

金融期货早评 宏观："十五五"首个中央一号文件公布 【市场资讯】1）美国总统特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束政府部分"停摆"。2）美联储理 事米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息不止 100 个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的 表现。不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在通胀尚未完全回落至目标之前，货币政策仍需 保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。3）澳洲联储宣布加息 25 个基点至 3.85%，为 2023 年以来的首次加息，成为 2026 年首个加息的主要发达经济体央行。4）一位白宫官员表示， 美联储理事米兰已辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席一职。5）中央一号文件《中共中央国务院 关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》发布。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】2 月市场迎来关键变量，美联储主席提名人选的鹰派立场引发降 息延后预期，叠加英国经济韧性显现，英央行 5 月前降息概率显著下降，但该流动性调整 仅为短期预期修正，欧美货币宽松的宏观背景未变。从产业与政策维度看：战略矿产与新 能源产业链，受美国关键矿产储备政策、中国供给侧管控双重支撑，铜、稀土及碳酸锂、 多晶硅等新能源标的供需缺口长期存在；人工智能产业在政策与技术驱动下 ...

Group 1 - The European chemical industry has experienced a significant increase in plant closures, with capacity losses surging sixfold since 2022, totaling 37 million tons, which accounts for approximately 9% of the total capacity in Europe [1] - The report from Caixin Securities suggests focusing on three main investment themes: leading companies in the polyester industry benefiting from anti-involution policies, companies with strong presence in the western market and advanced overseas layouts in the civil explosives sector, and firms with technological and capacity advantages in specialty plastics like PEEK [1] - As of February 4, 2026, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 0.11%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Sankeshu (up 4.24%), Hongda Co. (up 3.13%), Hengli Petrochemical (up 1.98%), Jiangnan Chemical (up 1.84%), and Luxi Chemical (up 1.60%) [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, Tianci Materials, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, Juhua Co., Baofeng Energy, Yuntianhua, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 44.82% of the index [2] - The Chemical ETF (159870) is closely tracking the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with various off-market connections available [2]