Core Viewpoint - China is transitioning to a high-income stage, with significant potential for consumption growth as the economic environment and consumer characteristics evolve. It is essential to effectively implement the decisions of the central government to stimulate consumption and improve livelihoods, thereby creating a virtuous cycle of economic development and social welfare [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption Growth Potential - Resident consumption in China has substantial growth potential, driven by changes in social and economic conditions [2]. - International experiences indicate that as countries transition to high-income status, there is typically a deceleration in consumption growth, but new growth drivers emerge. For instance, in the five years before reaching high-income status, OECD countries saw an average decline of 1.7 percentage points in consumption growth [3]. - The increase in economic development and urbanization is expected to drive service consumption growth, with service consumption's income elasticity being high. As income levels rise, the focus of consumer spending shifts from goods to services [3][4]. Group 2: Urbanization and Service Consumption - Urbanization leads to population concentration and industrial integration, which stimulates demand for services such as education, healthcare, and entertainment. The service consumption share is positively correlated with urbanization rates [4]. - In 2024, China's urbanization rate is projected to be 67%, still 9 percentage points lower than the average of similar high-income countries, indicating significant room for growth in service consumption [4]. Group 3: Diverse Consumer Preferences - There is a clear trend of consumption differentiation among various income, age, and regional groups, with digital technology enabling diverse consumer needs [4][6]. - Over 50% of lower-income groups allocate most of their income to daily necessities, while nearly 30% of higher-income groups are shifting towards development and enjoyment-oriented consumption [6]. - Different generational preferences are evident, with younger consumers valuing social attributes and experiences, while older consumers focus on practicality and essential goods [7]. Group 4: Quality and Value in Consumption - A significant portion of consumers prioritize cost-effectiveness, with over half indicating that price-performance ratio is their main concern when shopping [8]. - The demand for high-quality, cost-effective products is expected to grow, similar to trends observed in Japan during the 1990s, where consumers favored value-for-money products [8]. Group 5: Service Demand and Family Structure Changes - The trend towards smaller family units is increasing the demand for outsourced family services, such as elder care and childcare. The average household size in China has decreased from 3.1 to 2.62 persons per household from 2010 to 2020 [9]. - The market for household services reached approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in 2023, with an annual growth rate of about 20% from 2015 to 2023, indicating a strong demand for marketized services [9]. Group 6: Challenges in Consumption Growth - There is a growing pressure on residents' consumption capacity, with the nominal growth rate of per capita disposable income in 2024 projected at 5.3%, a decline of 3.5 percentage points compared to 2019 [13]. - The supply and demand mismatch in the service sector needs to be addressed, as the service industry is lagging in development compared to high-income economies, with insufficient supply and quality issues in education, healthcare, and other sectors [14]. - Consumer expectations regarding product quality are not being met, with a significant number of complaints related to product quality and service issues, particularly in the elderly consumer market [15].

金十数据5月6日讯，法国4月服务业连续第八个月萎缩，新订单大幅减少。标普HCOB法国服务业PMI 指数从3月份的47.9降至4月份的47.3，表明该行业收缩速度加快。4月终值高于初值46.8。调查显示，新 订单迅速加速下降，需求状况依然疲弱，竞争压力使价格保持稳定。汉堡商业银行初级经济学家乔纳斯 •费尔德胡森表示："4月份标志着法国私营部门活动再次下滑。法国服务业仍处于下行轨道。由于客户 需求下降和市场环境普遍恶化，4月份商业活动再次下滑。" PMI显示，4月份法国服务业进一步收缩 ...

意大利4月服务业PMI 52.9，预期51.5，前值52。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese service sector is experiencing a slowdown in new order growth, reaching a 28-month low, while costs are rising, and service prices are declining, leading to a drop in industry optimism to a historical low point [2][11][14]. Service Sector Performance - In April, the Caixin Services PMI stood at 50.7, down from 51.9, indicating continued expansion but at the slowest pace since September of the previous year [2]. - The composite output index fell from 51.8 in March to 51.1 in April, marking a three-month low in production activity [5][15]. - New business volume growth has slowed, with the rate being the weakest in seven months, and new export orders have also contracted [5][16]. Employment and Cost Trends - The employment index in the service sector has fallen into contraction territory for the second consecutive month, reflecting cost-cutting measures by companies [9][14]. - Average input costs have risen, driven by increasing raw material prices and wages, yet service firms continue to lower selling prices for the third month in a row due to weak market demand [9][14]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Business optimism has declined to the second-lowest level since the survey began in November 2005, primarily due to concerns over trade policy changes [14]. - Despite the pessimistic outlook, companies expect that new marketing strategies and efficiency improvements will help drive growth in the next 12 months [14]. - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with external trade uncertainties significantly impacting business sentiment [19].

Core Insights - The S&P Global Australia Composite PMI decreased from 51.6 to 51 in April 2025, indicating a slight reduction in the growth rate of Australia's private sector output, which has been increasing for seven consecutive months [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The number of new export orders in Australia's private sector declined again in April, but the overall growth rate of new orders reached its highest level since May 2022 [1] - The average input costs in Australia's private sector grew at the fastest pace since September of the previous year, leading businesses to raise selling prices to the highest level in nine months [2] - The services sector's business activity index fell from 51.6 to 51, marking the 15th consecutive month above the 50-point threshold, indicating ongoing expansion [2] Group 2: Business Sentiment and Employment - Despite the increase in business activity, the optimism level among private enterprises remains low, falling to a five-month low and below historical averages [1][2] - The services sector experienced a significant increase in new business and backlog of work, with the fastest growth in nearly three years, suggesting a positive outlook for the coming months [2] - Companies are continuing to hire at a steady pace to manage increased workloads, although concerns over trade uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. tariff measures, have dampened business sentiment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The US services PMI is expected to decline to 50.2, down from 50.8, indicating a less optimistic outlook for the services sector while still remaining in the expansion zone [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **PMI Expectations** - The anticipated value for the ISM services PMI is 50.2, which is a decrease from the previous value of 50.8 [1] - **Sector Outlook** - The outlook for the services sector is not optimistic, but it is expected to remain in an expansion state compared to the manufacturing sector [1] - **Analyst Insights** - Analysts from Wells Fargo noted that the decline last month was one of the largest in nine months, primarily due to a significant drop in the employment index and a slowdown in both domestic and international orders [1] - **Business Activity and Confidence** - Despite relatively resilient business activity, the overall situation appears discouraging, and further deterioration in business confidence could severely impact the industry [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In April, the economic expansion pace slowed down, but business production and operation activities remained in an expansion state. The manufacturing industry was affected by tariff shocks, with enterprises actively reducing inventory due to risk aversion. The non - manufacturing industry was supported by front - loaded fiscal policies in the construction sector. In the bond market, the one - year Treasury yield has room to decline, and after the ten - year Treasury yield approaches the previous low, value - type equity assets may show better allocation value [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Manufacturing - **Supply and demand**: In April, the production index dropped 2.8 to 49.8, and the new order index dropped 2.6 to 49.2. The new export order dropped 4.3 to 44.7, while domestic demand relatively recovered. Industries such as food and medicine had both supply and demand indices above 53.0, while industries like textile and clothing and metal products saw significant declines in both indices, falling below the critical point [2]. - **Price and profit**: Affected by insufficient market demand and the continuous decline of some commodity prices, the main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 47.0 and 44.8 respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 from the previous month [2]. - **Inventory and production expansion**: Uncertainty led enterprises to actively reduce inventory. In April, the purchase volume dropped 5.5 to 46.3, imports dropped 4.1 to 43.3, raw material inventory and finished product inventory decreased by 0.2 and 0.7 respectively. The production and operation activity expectation dropped 1.7 to 52.1, falling for three consecutive months, and the employment index dropped 0.3 to 47.9 [2]. - **Enterprise size impact**: The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises was 49.2, 48.8, and 48.7 respectively, down 2.0, 1.1, and 0.9 from the previous month, all below the critical point [3]. - **Industry segment impact**: The PMI of high - tech manufacturing dropped 0.8 to 51.5, equipment manufacturing dropped 2.4 to 49.6, consumer goods industry dropped 0.6 to 49.4, and basic raw material industry dropped 1.6 to 47.7 [3]. Non - manufacturing - **Overall situation**: In April, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4, down 0.4 month - on - month. The construction industry PMI dropped 1.5 to 51.9, and the service industry PMI dropped 0.2 to 50.1. Industries such as air transportation, telecommunications, and the Internet were in a high - prosperity range, while industries like water transportation and capital market services were below the critical point [4][5]. - **Demand side**: The non - manufacturing external demand deteriorated significantly. The new order index was 44.9, down 1.7 month - on - month, and the new export order dropped 7.6 to 42.2. The new order index of the construction industry was 39.6, down 3.9 month - on - month, and that of the service industry was 45.9, down 1.2 month - on - month [5]. 4. Investment Advice Given the tariff shocks causing enterprises to shrink their businesses and the significant decline in the prosperity of the equipment manufacturing industry, and considering the central government's stable policy stance, in the bond market, the one - year Treasury yield has room to decline. After the ten - year Treasury yield approaches the previous low (1.6%), value - type equity assets are expected to gradually show better allocation value [6].

| 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 | 2025-04-26 | | 读 | | 外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现——4 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 事件：4 月 30 日统计局公布最新 PMI，其中制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 录得 50.4%，保持在荣枯线以上。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong economy showed robust expansion in Q1 2025, with a real GDP growth of 3.1% year-on-year, accelerating from 2.5% in Q4 2024 [1][2] GDP Components Analysis - Private consumption expenditure decreased by 1.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, compared to a decline of 0.2% in Q4 2024 [1] - Government consumption expenditure recorded a real increase of 1.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, down from 2.1% in Q4 2024 [1] - Gross fixed capital formation rose by 2.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, contrasting with a decline of 0.7% in Q4 2024 [1] - Goods exports saw a significant real increase of 8.7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from 1.3% in Q4 2024 [1] - Goods imports increased by 7.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, compared to a 0.4% rise in Q4 2024 [1] - Service output continued to grow, with a 6.6% increase year-on-year in Q1 2025, following a 6.5% rise in Q4 2024 [1] - Service input rose by 6.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, down from 8.3% in Q4 2024 [1] Seasonal Adjustment and Economic Outlook - Seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.0% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 [2] - The government noted that external demand has supported overall goods export growth, while service output has expanded due to increased visitor arrivals and cross-border economic activities [2] - Despite the positive growth, private consumption has slightly declined, reflecting ongoing changes in consumer behavior [2] - Future outlook indicates significant downside risks to the global economy due to heightened trade tensions, particularly from increased U.S. import tariffs, which may impact Hong Kong's short-term economic prospects [2] - Continued steady growth in the mainland economy and government measures to diversify markets are expected to support various economic activities in Hong Kong [2]

瑞士4月服务业PMI 52.4，前值 50.6。 ...