Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July, the "anti-involution" sentiment drove the overall sentiment of commodities. The supply and demand of iron ore were relatively good, and the price rose under the influence of sentiment. After the sentiment subsided, the price fluctuated. In August, the supply is expected to recover to some extent as July was the traditional off-season for overseas mines' shipments, and the near-term arrivals may increase. The daily average hot metal output is expected to remain at a relatively high level, but the weakening demand of the downstream terminal needs attention. The port inventory is expected to rise slightly. Overall, the focus of the black sector remains on coking coal, and the iron ore fundamentals do not show obvious contradictions, with the price expected to fluctuate. Attention should also be paid to the possible impact of the production restriction expectations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region before the "September 3rd Parade" [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The weekly average of global iron ore shipments in July was 30.73 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.5885 million tons. The weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The domestic daily average hot metal output in July was 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of July, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 126 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 104 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 7 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 146 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was -11 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of July, the pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2265 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and in Zhangjiagang was 2150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of July, the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, an increase of 4.33 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 3.9029 million tons, a decrease of 0.9653 million tons. The iron concentrate inventory was 10.815 million tons, a decrease of 1.0125 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 16.825 million tons, an increase of 1.7881 million tons. The Australian ore inventory was 61.9325 million tons, an increase of 0.9517 million tons. The Brazilian ore inventory was 47.786 million tons, a decrease of 1.442 million tons [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In July, the weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 5.788 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.771 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.4773 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9315 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 6.1115 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0575 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.5103 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9163 million tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports in July was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons. In June, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6103 million tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of July, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.51%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 480300 tons, a decrease of 11300 tons from the end of the previous month [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The domestic hot metal output in July was 74.79 million tons, with a daily average of 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month. At the end of July, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the end of the previous month [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In July, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 3.0041 million tons, a decrease of 0.0038 million tons from the previous month [69]. 6. Basis - As of July 31, the basis of the iron ore IOC6 main contract was 50.07 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.04% [74].

Market Review - On Thursday evening, iron ore futures for the 2601 contract rose by 0.26%, closing at 775 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - In July, China's iron ore imports totaled 104.62 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.3%, slightly down from the six-month high of 105.95 million tons in June [2] - As of August 8, the total iron ore inventory at 45 national ports was 137.12 million tons, an increase of 543,700 tons from the previous period; the average daily port discharge volume was 3.2185 million tons, up by 191,400 tons [2] - On Thursday, the spot trading volume of iron ore at ports was 1.08 million tons, with the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port quoted at 776 CNY (-4) per ton, and super special powder at 650 CNY (-2) per ton; the price difference between high and low-grade PB powder and super special powder was 126 CNY per ton [2] Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures noted that iron and steel production has declined for two consecutive weeks, and with weak demand, production is expected to decrease further; rumors of production restrictions in northern regions may weaken ore demand [3] - The supply side saw a month-on-month decrease of 1.39 million tons in global iron ore shipments, but due to a three-week increase in late July shipments, the iron ore arrival volume this week rose by 2.673 million tons [3] - CICC Wealth Futures indicated that the current supply-demand structure is stable, and with steel production restrictions not yet implemented, iron ore is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the short term [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the high - level meeting, the "anti - involution" hype faded, and the market will focus on the demand during the peak season. The steel market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with potential further weakening of demand and rising inventory. For iron ore, the market is in the off - season, with high supply and limited upward space for iron - water production. Both steel and iron ore futures prices face downward pressure [2][4] - For steel, it is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - profits in time. For iron ore, short - term short positions can be held lightly with timely stop - profits [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Focus**: After the meeting, the market turns to focus on the peak - season consumption in September. The market shows a weak supply - demand situation, with potential further weakening of demand due to the ongoing hot summer [2] - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures have different changes compared to the previous day and week. Most spot prices have declined slightly. The basis and spreads of futures contracts also show various changes [2] - **Production and Profit**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remains stable, but the average daily iron - water volume has decreased. The proportion of profitable steel mills has increased. The rebar production has increased, while the hot - rolled coil production has decreased [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major varieties has increased, with both social and factory inventories of rebar rising, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing while the factory inventory has decreased [2] - **Demand and Orders**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties has declined slightly. The trading volume in the spot market has decreased significantly [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill profitability is acceptable, but the iron - water production is under pressure to decline. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the trade - mine inventory is high [4] - **Price and Spread**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have different changes compared to the previous day and week. The basis, futures monthly spreads, and variety spreads also show various trends [4] - **Shipping and Logistics**: The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments have decreased. The shipping freight rates and exchange rates have changed, and the arrival volume of northern six ports has increased while the average daily port - clearance volume has decreased [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory and trade - mine inventory have decreased, and the sintered powder inventory of sample steel mills has also declined [4] 3. Industry News - HeSteel's August silicon - iron and silicon - manganese tender prices and quantities have changed compared to July [6] - Some coal mines have experienced production suspension and resumption, affecting the output of coking coal [6] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 16 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [7]

Investment Rating of the Report The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are trending upward with strong performance, influenced by the risk - aversion sentiment due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The potential US tariff on Swiss gold imports has significantly increased the premium of COMEX gold over London gold. The short - term trend of the US dollar is weak. The US stock index futures face the need for more data to verify the intensification of economic downward pressure, and there is a risk of correction at the current level. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [14][19][23][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US allows 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets. Trump nominates a new Fed governor. China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons in July. Gold prices are trending upward, and there are arbitrage opportunities due to the widening regional price difference [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Miran is nominated as a Fed governor by Trump. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump nominates Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The risk in the job market has increased, and inflation expectations have risen in July. The possibility of a Fed rate cut within the year has increased in the short term, but the long - term independence of the Fed is affected. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [21][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25][27][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. The sustainability of strong export growth is questionable. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is tortuous, and the timing of going long should be carefully grasped [29][30][31]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China imported 1166.6 million tons of soybeans in July. ANEC expects Brazil to export 815 million tons of soybeans in August. US soybean exports were better than expected, and CBOT soybeans stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in China may tighten in the fourth quarter if no US soybeans are purchased. The operating center of soybean meal futures prices is expected to move up [33][35][37]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China imported 53.4 million tons of edible vegetable oil in July. The oil market is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillating trend. It is not recommended to enter the market today, and existing long positions can be held [39]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The excavator monthly operation rate in July was 56.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, suppressing the market. Steel prices are driven by policies, but it is difficult for spot prices to rise. It is recommended to be cautious about market rallies [40][41][42]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and inventory accumulated again. The supply - demand situation does not support the strengthening of the rice - flour price difference, and the regional price difference may be unfavorable to the 09 contract [44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and consumption slightly increased. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions and pay attention to the weather [47][48][49]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong on August 7. The coal price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to rebound. Attention should be paid to the change in daily consumption in mid - August [49]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in July. The ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton planting area in the 25/26 season is 1058.7 million hectares. Vietnamese textile enterprises have weak restocking intentions. Textile and clothing exports declined in July. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have limited room for further decline in the short term and may rebound [52][53][54]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Jinzhong Lingshi market increased. The coking coal market has strong speculation sentiment due to policy and inspection factors, and the impact on the fundamentals depends on further policies [58][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Guangxi postponed the maintenance of a roasting furnace to August 16. The alumina futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Jingao's project is under pre - approval publicity. The spot transaction price has increased, and the polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [62][63][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.7 million tons. The supply may increase slightly in August, and the balance sheet may still show inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [65][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper import volume increased in July. A copper mine accident in Chile affected production. The macro - sentiment is favorable to copper prices in the short term, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [68][70][71]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons on August 7. The nickel price is difficult to decline deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [73][74][75]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia will invest in a lithium project. The demand is strong in August, and the supply risk remains. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved and take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [76][77]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Pan American Silver's lead concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The lead price has cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [78][79]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American Silver's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The zinc price may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [80][81][82]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume increased slightly, and the inventory situation changed. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the behavior of factory warehouses [83][84]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The CEA price is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips cautiously for enterprises with quota demand [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the inventory increased. The downward space of caustic soda is limited [87][88][89]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [91]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market is locally weak. The PVC price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support from coal [92][93]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX supply may increase, and PTA is in a loss. PX may accumulate inventory in August - September, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [93][94]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The downstream is still in the off - season, and the PTA market is expected to oscillate in the short term [95][96][97]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Jingbo has produced qualified products. The styrene market is expected to oscillate at the current price [99]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. In the medium term, a strategy of short - selling at high prices can be considered for soda ash [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased. The glass price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage [101][102]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's import and export data from January to July was released. The container freight rate is expected to be weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [103][104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Ore**: Newman powder was priced at 769, down 3 from the previous day and up 11 for the week; PB powder was at 773, down 3 from the previous day and up 9 for the week; Mac powder was at 763, down 2 from the previous day and up 9 for the week; Goldboba powder was at 745, down 4 from the previous day and up 8 for the week; the mixed powder was at 699, down 1 from the previous day and up 5 for the week; Super Special powder was at 648, down 2 from the previous day and up 8 for the week; Carajás powder was at 880, unchanged from the previous day and up 12 for the week [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Ore**: Brazilian blend was at 812, up 9 from the previous day and up 26 for the week; Brazilian coarse IOC6 was at 763, down 3 from the previous day and up 9 for the week; Brazilian coarse SSFG was at 768, down 3 from the previous day and up 9 for the week [1] - **Other Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate was at 866, down 2 from the previous day and up 15 for the week; 61% Indian powder was at 734, down 4 from the previous day and up 8 for the week; Karara concentrate was at 866, down 2 from the previous day and up 17 for the week; Roy Hill powder was at 743, down 3 from the previous day and up 9 for the week; KUMBA powder was at 833, down 3 from the previous day and up 9 for the week; 57% Indian powder was at 593, down 2 from the previous day and up 8 for the week; Atlas powder was at 694, down 1 from the previous day and up 5 for the week; Tangshan iron concentrate was at 958, up 6 from the previous day and up 31 for the week [1] Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 was at 774.5, down 3.0 from the previous day and up 21.0 for the week; i2605 was at 752.5, down 2.0 from the previous day and up 20.5 for the week; i2509 was at 793.0, down 1.5 from the previous day and up 14.0 for the week [1] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 was at 101.91, down 0.32 from the previous day and up 1.27 for the week; FE05 was at 99.86, down 0.29 from the previous day and up 1.37 for the week; FE09 was at 101.80, down 0.67 from the previous day and up 0.09 for the week [1] Basis/Spread - Information on basis and spread including month - to - month spreads and import profits for different ore types was provided, such as the import profit of Newman powder was - 27.99, PB powder was - 7.07, etc [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Politburo meeting and the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the market sentiment becomes rational, the steel price disk trend weakens, and if the demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may return to the supply - demand logic. The real - estate policy is expected to continue to strictly control the increment. It is recommended to focus on the terminal demand repair and cost support [3]. - For iron ore, the supply is in the traditional off - season of overseas mines, the pressure is not significant, the demand support exists, and the short - term trend is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to terminal demand changes and possible pre - parade production restrictions [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions be on the sidelines, and hedging positions can be opportunistically participated. In the future, they will face the situation of weakening marginal demand [8][9][10]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the prices are in a volatile state, and it is necessary to be cautious when participating. Industrial silicon has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand, and polysilicon is affected by capacity policy expectations and corporate price - holding strategies [13][14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, glass depends on real - estate policies and demand, and soda ash has supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait for high - short opportunities in the long term [18][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,231 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 93,491 tons, a net increase of 4,235 tons. The main contract position was 1.628167 million lots, a decrease of 24,402 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,440 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.31%). The registered warehouse receipts were 70,915 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.428587 million lots, a decrease of 31,588 lots. In the spot market, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in some regions decreased [2]. - **Market Situation**: The steel product market atmosphere warmed up, and export volume rebounded this week. Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks with an enlarged increase this week. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. The overall market sentiment has turned rational, and the disk trend has weakened [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 793.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.19% (-1.50), and the position changed by -22,928 lots to 335,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 926,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 28.32 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.45% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. Non - mainstream country shipments increased, and the arrival volume increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.39 million tons to 2.4032 million tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased slightly. The apparent demand of the five major steel products weakened, and inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Market Trend**: On August 6, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated and slightly corrected, closing down 0.52% at 6,064 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.25% at 5,834 yuan/ton. The disk prices of both are above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, with loose and disordered K - line trends [8]. - **Fundamental Situation**: Manganese silicon is in an over - supplied industrial pattern, with marginal weakening of future demand and potential downward adjustment in cost. Ferrosilicon is also expected to face weakening marginal demand, especially the risk of rapid weakening of hot - rolled coil demand and the risk of a sharp decline in pig iron output [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon was 8,655 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.52% (-45). The weighted contract position increased by 13,756 lots to 535,790 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China were flat. The main contract has a certain basis. It has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand, and the price is weakly volatile [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon was 50,110 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.41% (-1,235). The weighted contract position decreased by 11,678 lots to 375,640 lots. The spot prices were flat. It is affected by capacity policy expectations and corporate price - holding strategies, and the price is in a high - level volatile state [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 3.95% month - on - month to 61.847 million heavy boxes, and the inventory days increased by 0.9 days to 26.4 days. The price decreased significantly with the cooling of market sentiment, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, it depends on real - estate policies and demand [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1,255 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 0.72% to 1.8651 million tons. The downstream demand was average, mainly for rigid procurement. The price oscillated widely with the coal - chemical sector, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides a comprehensive set of data on iron ore, including prices, price changes, and related spreads for different varieties, regions, and contracts. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 772, down 3 from the previous day and up 3 for the week; PB powder price is 776, down 4 from the previous day and up 4 for the week; Macfarlane powder price is 765, down 2 from the previous day and up 6 for the week; Jinbuba powder price is 749, down 4 from the previous day and up 4 for the week; mainstream mixed powder price is 700, down 2 from the previous day and down 3 for the week; super special powder price is 650, down 2 from the previous day and up 3 for the week; Carajás powder price is 880, down 3 from the previous day and up 6 for the week [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore price is 803, unchanged from the previous day and up 1 for the week; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 766, down 4 from the previous day and up 4 for the week; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 771, down 4 from the previous day and up 4 for the week [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate price is 868, down 2 from the previous day and up 8 for the week; 61% Indian powder price is 738, down 4 from the previous day and up 4 for the week; Karara concentrate price is 868, down 1 from the previous day and up 10 for the week; Roy Hill powder price is 746, down 4 from the previous day and up 4 for the week; KUMBA powder price is 836, down 4 from the previous day and up 4 for the week; 57% Indian powder price is 595, down 2 from the previous day and up 3 for the week; Atlas powder price is 695, down 2 from the previous day and down 3 for the week [1]. - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate price is 952, up 13 from the previous day and up 23 for the week [1]. Futures Market - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 contract price is 777.5, down 0.5 from the previous day and up 11.5 for the week; i2605 contract price is 754.5, unchanged from the previous day and up 9.0 for the week; i2509 contract price is 794.5, down 4.0 from the previous day and up 5.5 for the week [1]. - **New Exchange Contracts**: FE01 contract price is 102.23, up 1.21 from the previous day and up 0.92 for the week; FE05 contract price is 100.15, up 1.25 from the previous day and up 1.09 for the week; FE09 contract price is 102.47, up 0.97 from the previous day and down 0.27 for the week [1]. Price Spreads - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: For i2601, the inter - monthly spread is 17.0, up 0.5 from the previous day and down 10.4 for the week; for i2605, the inter - monthly spread is 23.0, unchanged from the previous day and down 7.9 for the week; for i2509, the inter - monthly spread is - 40.0, up 4.0 from the previous day and down 4.4 for the week [1]. - **Other Spreads**: For FE01, the spread is 0.24, up 1.6 from the previous day and down 0.7 for the week; for FE05, the spread is 2.08, up 1.2 from the previous day and down 4.0 for the week; for FE09, the spread is - 2.32, down 0.5 from the previous day and up 2.0 for the week [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices are expected to gradually return to the real - trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate. It is expected that the policy direction will continue the previous strict control of the incremental situation. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side to the prices of finished products [3]. - Short - term commodity prices may be adjusted. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate with the prices of downstream products and mainly oscillate. The market divergence remains, and risk control should be noted [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. In the long - term, the demand of the black sector will weaken marginally [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, although the short - term price is repeated, the high - point may have appeared. For polysilicon, the price is in high - level oscillation, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely. Caution is required when participating [15][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. In the long - term, if there are substantial policies in real estate, the futures price may continue to rise. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long - term. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3234 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.030%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 893 tons to 89256 tons, and the main contract position decreased by 56263 lots to 1.652569 million lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3451 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.17%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 55998 tons, and the main contract position decreased by 1559 lots to 1.460175 million lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The real - estate policy remains basically unchanged. The export volume has decreased significantly this week. The speculative demand for rebar has decreased, and there is inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils has increased slightly, with a rapid increase in production and a small inventory accumulation. The inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 794.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50% (- 4.00), with a position change of - 26208 lots to 358300 lots. The weighted position was 942500 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 776 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.13 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.65% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased. The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly. The profitability of steel mills is still at a high level, and the demand support remains [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 1.30% at 6096 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 94 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 3.36% at 5908 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 142 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Manganese silicon is in an over - supplied industrial pattern, with marginal weakening of future demand and potential downward adjustment of costs. Ferrosilicon also faces the risk of weakening demand and a significant decline in pig iron output in the future [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8700 yuan/ton, up 2.47% (+ 210). The weighted contract position increased by 21227 lots to 522034 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 51345 yuan/ton, up 2.02% (+ 1015). The weighted contract position increased by 5970 lots to 387318 lots [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: For industrial silicon, the supply is in excess, and the effective demand is insufficient. The price may be repeated in the short - term. For polysilicon, the price is affected by the expected capacity integration plan and the enterprise's price - holding strategy, and it is in high - level oscillation. The inventory may accumulate slightly in August [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1181 yuan, down 9 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 239.7 million weight boxes to 5949.9 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.87% month - on - month and 13.88% year - on - year. The spot price of soda ash was 1320 yuan, up 70 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 56000 tons to 1.8518 million tons, an increase of 3.12% [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. In the long - term, it depends on real - estate policies. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and there are supply - demand contradictions in the long - term [18][19].

1. Report Information - Report Title: "光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报" - Date: August 6, 2025 [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily monitoring data on iron ore basis and spreads, including futures contract prices, spreads between different contracts, basis data of various iron ore varieties, and spreads between different iron ore varieties [3][6][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - Futures contract prices: I05 closed at 754.5 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan; I01 closed at 778.0 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan [3] - Contract spreads: The spread between I05 - I09 was -44.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan; I09 - I01 was 20.5 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan; I01 - I05 was 23.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.2 Basis Data - Price changes: The prices of most iron ore varieties increased slightly, with the price of卡拉拉精粉 rising by 10.0 yuan/ton, and the prices of河钢精粉,鞍钢精粉,本钢精粉,太钢精粉, and马钢精粉 remaining unchanged [6] - Basis changes: The basis of most varieties decreased, with the basis of河钢精粉,鞍钢精粉,本钢精粉,太钢精粉, and马钢精粉 decreasing significantly [6] 3.3 Variety Spreads - Spread changes: The spread between PB块 - PB粉 was 146.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; PB粉 - 混合粉 was 78.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; PB粉 - 超特粉 was 128.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan [13] 3.4 Exchange Rule Adjustments - Newly added deliverable varieties: 4 varieties including本钢精粉, IOC6, KUMBA, and乌克兰精粉 were added, and 4 varieties including太钢精粉,马钢精粉,五矿标准粉, and SP10粉 were also added [11] - Brand premium adjustments: Only PB粉, BRBF, and卡拉加斯粉 have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 yuan/ton [11] - Quality difference and premium adjustments: The allowable range of iron grade indicators was adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium was introduced [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Categories Spot Market - Australian mainstream iron ore: Newman powder price is 775 with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly decrease of 3; PB powder price is 780, up 7 daily and down 1 weekly; Macfie powder price is 767, up 5 daily and unchanged weekly; Jinbuba powder price is 753, up 8 daily and down 1 weekly; mainstream mixed powder price is 702, up 5 daily and down 8 weekly; super special powder price is 652, up 6 daily and down 5 weekly; Carajás powder price is 883, up 5 daily and unchanged weekly; Roy Hill powder price is 750, up 7 daily and down 1 weekly; KUMBA powder price is 840, up 7 daily and down 1 weekly [1] - Brazilian mainstream iron ore: Brazilian mixed ore price is 803, up 7 daily and unchanged weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 770, up 7 daily and down 1 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 775, up 7 daily and down 1 weekly [1] - Other varieties: Ukrainian concentrate price is 870, up 10 daily and 3 weekly; 61% Indian powder price is 742, up 8 daily and down 1 weekly; Karara concentrate price is 869, up 10 daily and 4 weekly; 57% Indian powder price is 597, up 6 daily and down 5 weekly; Atlas powder price is 697, up 5 daily and down 8 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate price is 939, up 12 daily and 10 weekly [1] Futures Market - Dalian Commodity Exchange contracts: i2601 price is 778.0, up 12.0 daily and 7.5 weekly; i2605 price is 754.5, up 12.0 daily and 5.5 weekly; i2509 price is 798.5, up 8.0 daily and 0.5 weekly [1] - Singapore Exchange contracts: FE01 price is 101.02, up 1.59 daily and 1.80 weekly; FE05 price is 98.90, up 1.48 daily and 1.86 weekly; FE09 price is 101.50, up 1.50 daily and 0.71 weekly [1] Premiums and Spreads - Import profit: Newman powder import profit is -23.81; PB powder import profit is -2.55; Macfie powder import profit is 3.91; Jinbuba powder import profit is 6.75; mainstream mixed powder import profit is -9.01; super special powder import profit is -12.01; Carajás powder import profit is -27.65; Brazilian mixed ore import profit is -15.52; Roy Hill powder import profit is 3.84 [1] - Inter - month spreads: i2601 - i2605 spread is 20.5, down 4.4 daily and 7.5 weekly; i2605 - i2509 spread is 23.5, down 4.4 daily and 5.5 weekly; i2509 - i2601 spread is -44.0, down 0.4 daily and 0.5 weekly [1] - Basis/Internal - external spreads: No specific summarized data provided, only listed in the table [1] - U - ball/pellet premium and PB block/block ore premium: No specific summarized data provided, only shown in the charts [1]