盘面回顾：指数窄幅震荡，个股和板块表现分化。周二全天指数窄幅震荡，临近尾盘沪指收红，但 大部分中小市值宽基指数仍以绿盘报收。交易金额为1.07 万亿，较周一萎缩。周二 31 个一级行业表现 分化，领涨板块是美容护理、银行、家用电器、纺织服饰、传媒等。领跌板块是国防军工、商贸零售、 电子、钢铁、社会服务等。 风险提示：关税冲击的后续影响，美联储降息延后，海外经济衰退超预期，国内经济复苏不及预 期，政策执行不及预期等。 周二指数窄幅波动，市场观望情绪加大。周二 A 股全天窄幅波动，波幅仅 22 个指数点，显示在经 历了连续 5 个交易日的上涨后，市场观望情绪开始加大，追涨意愿下降。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金 等三家国资开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管"对等关税"的后续 影响还存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对 近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上 市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性 ...

摘要 自由现金流（Free Cash Flow, FCF）：是衡量企业财务健康状况和投资价值的重要指标之一，反映了企业在满足必要的资本支出后，能够自由支配的现金 金额，反映真实的现金流生成能力。 自由现金流是基于现金流的指标，反映企业实际可用的现金 ，可以用于企业现金留存、分红回购、还债付息等，是衡量企业财务健康和盈利能力的重要指 标之一。 自由现金流充裕的企业相对更能规避价值陷阱，同时分享长期增长红利， 相对更易穿越经济周期，在政策支持与市场风格切换的背景下， 自由现 金流组合有望成为资产配置的 "压舱石"。 中证全指自由现金流指数： 选取100只自由现金流率较高的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映现金流创造能力较强的上市公司证券的整体表现。 成分股覆盖周期和消费权重相对较高。 根据Wind，截至2025年4月14日，中证自由现金流指数的前5大行业合计权重为65%，重仓行业为煤炭、石油石化、 交通运输、食品饮料和家用电器。覆盖大中小市值股票，其中 小市值股票数量相对较多。持仓相对集中， 前十大重仓股合计权重为65.53%. 历史业绩长期优于沪深300等宽基指数。 以2014年至今作为观察周期，考虑分红再投资， ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.15% on April 15, with 12 sectors experiencing gains, led by the beauty and personal care sector at 2.27% and the banking sector at 1.50% [1] - The home appliance sector ranked third in terms of gains for the day [1] - Conversely, the defense and military industry and retail sector saw declines of 1.78% and 1.37%, respectively [1] Capital Flow - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 19.301 billion yuan across both markets, with 11 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The media sector led the net inflow with 800.2 million yuan and a daily increase of 0.96%, followed by the banking sector with a net inflow of 780 million yuan and a daily increase of 1.50% [1] - A total of 20 sectors experienced net outflows, with the electronics sector leading at 3.841 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector at 2.799 billion yuan [1] Home Appliance Sector Performance - The home appliance sector increased by 1.35% with a net inflow of 278 million yuan, comprising 95 stocks, of which 51 rose and 38 fell [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Midea Group at 187 million yuan, Gree Electric Appliances at 161 million yuan, and Shenzhen Konka at 143 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included Sanhua Intelligent Control at 63.297 million yuan, Stone Technology at 60.431 million yuan, and Starlight Shares at 45.593 million yuan [2] Notable Stocks in Home Appliance Sector - Midea Group: Increased by 2.23% with a turnover rate of 0.50% and a main capital flow of 187.256 million yuan [2] - Gree Electric Appliances: Increased by 2.21% with a turnover rate of 0.94% and a main capital flow of 160.982 million yuan [2] - Shenzhen Konka: Increased by 7.58% with a turnover rate of 17.10% and a main capital flow of 143.227 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - The Free Cash Flow Index has significantly outperformed the market and dividend indices, showing a strong absolute return attribute and benefiting from market downturns [6][8][10] - The Free Cash Flow Index exhibits a notable large-cap value style, with similar exposure to market, value, and large-cap styles compared to dividend indices [11][12][18] - The Free Cash Flow Index can effectively expand value style investment tools, with Sharpe ratios higher than market and dividend indices [18][21] Group 2 - The Free Cash Flow strategy performs well in environments of rising U.S. Treasury rates or tightening credit conditions, with a strong relative performance during these periods [24][25][26] - The Free Cash Flow Index and dividend style indices have similar periods of outperformance, generally outperforming the market during value style dominance [27][28] - A timing strategy based on U.S. Treasury rates, credit conditions, and style momentum has yielded an annualized return of 19.1% since 2015, surpassing the CSI Cash Flow Index by 4.7 percentage points [30][31] Group 3 - The Free Cash Flow Index focuses on financial quality, excluding financial and real estate sectors, and has a higher turnover rate, making it more sensitive to fundamental changes compared to the dividend index [33][36] - The Free Cash Flow Index has a higher concentration of individual stocks, with the top 10 stocks accounting for over 65% of the index, leading to greater exposure to large-cap value styles [36][37] - The alpha source of the Free Cash Flow Index is significantly driven by industry allocation and timing capabilities, with annualized excess returns of 9.0% and 8.9% for different indices [39][42]

2025年04月15日 证券研究报告 | 家用电器行业专题 关税对中美两国家电行业影响全梳理 行业研究 · 行业专题 家用电器 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：陈伟奇 0755-81982606 chenweiqi@guosen.com.cn S0980520110004 证券分析师：王兆康 0755-81983063 wangzk@guosen.com.cn S0980520120004 证券分析师：邹会阳 0755-81981518 zouhuiyang@guosen.com.cn S0980523020001 联系人：李晶 lijing29@guosen.com.cn 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 美国开启全球关税加征，对中国额外关税加征已到125%。4月3日，美国宣布"对等关税"计划，对所有进口商品征收10%的基 础关税，并对特定国家征收额外关税，其中对中国加征34%，加征后对中国关税税率累计达54%。4月9日，美国将对华关税税 率提高至125%，对75个贸易伙伴国暂停实施"对等关税"90天。 美国出口占我国家电内外销规模的比例预估不足8%。海关总署数据显示，2024年我 ...

主力资金净流出的行业有12个，电子行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金51.80亿元，其次 是计算机行业，净流出资金为19.09亿元，净流出资金较多的还有基础化工、交通运输、食品饮料等行 业。 基础化工行业今日上涨1.19%，全天主力资金净流出8.06亿元，该行业所属的个股共398只，今日上涨的 有342只，涨停的有8只；下跌的有51只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有199 只，其中，净流入资金超5000万元的有7只，净流入资金居首的是天晟新材，今日净流入资金7387.74万 元，紧随其后的是中毅达、丹化科技，净流入资金分别为6407.89万元、6216.64万元。基础化工行业资 金净流出个股中，资金净流出超5000万元的有8只，净流出资金居前的有石英股份、红宝丽、卫星化 学，净流出资金分别为5.11亿元、1.75亿元、1.63亿元。（数据宝） 基础化工行业资金流入榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300169 | 天晟新材 | 20.00 | 11.99 ...

行 家用电器 2025 年 04 月 13 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 家用电器 对等关税暂缓，建议关注全球化布局龙头+内需 基本面改善机会——25W15 周观点 投资要点： 对等关税暂缓，建议关注全球化布局龙头+内需基本面改善机会 告 美国宣布对等关税暂缓，建议关注全球化布局龙头。当地时间 4 月 9 日，特朗普宣布对不采取报复性行动的国家暂缓 90 天实施"对等 关税"，仅征收 10%关税，同时对华关税提升至 125%。本次对等关税 暂缓好于此前悲观预期，家电、纺服等可选消费龙头海外产能布局完 善，可通过转口贸易缓解关税压力，建议关注全球化布局龙头。 3 月黑电、清洁电器数据靓丽。根据奥维云网，3 月彩电线上销额、 销量、均价同比+25%、+3%、+21%，线下销额、销量、均价同比+27%、 +19%、+5%，3 月扫地机线上销额、销量、均价同比+48%、+46%、 +1%，3 月洗地机线上销额、销量、均价同比+55%、+53%、+1%。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅-4.7%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别-3.1%/-5.2%/-9.8%/-6.6%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 4.758 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35% to 288 million yuan [4][7] - The Q4 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 1.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and a net profit of 108 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17% [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 155 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 53.83% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 356 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.8%, and 419 million yuan in 2026, with a growth of 17.5% [6][9] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 5.103 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.2% [6] - The gross profit margin for Q4 was 34.66%, an increase of 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved product pricing [7]

2.沪深300主力资金净流出近620亿元 沪深300今日主力资金净流出617.4亿元，创业板净流出464.5亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2025-4-7 | -617.40 | -464.50 | -119.27 | | 2025-4-3 | -136.69 | -135.66 | -12.14 | | 2025-4-2 | -39.50 | -27.78 | -12.44 | | 2025-4-1 | -32.98 | -62.25 | -2.34 | | 2025-3-31 | -129.93 | -139.21 | -19.00 | | | | 尾盘资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | 2025-4-7 | -43.13 | -22.03 | -5.75 | | 2025-4-3 | -1.99 | 1.81 | 1.32 | | 2025-4-2 | -7.65 | -0.62 | -2.76 | | 2025-4-1 | -6.44 | -6.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downturn in the Chinese stock market, highlighting the significant drop in major indices and the increasing number of stocks hitting their daily limit down. It reflects on the lack of effective policy responses to the economic challenges posed by external factors, particularly U.S. tariffs, and the need for timely economic stimulus measures. Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a substantial decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 7.34% to fall below 3100 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 9.66%, and the ChiNext Index down 12.5%. The total market turnover reached 161.86 billion yuan, an increase of 46.03 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 3000 stocks hitting their daily limit down [18][24]. Economic Policy Discussion - Chinese officials are reportedly discussing preemptive economic stimulus policies in response to the impact of U.S. tariffs. This includes potential subsidies for consumption, childbirth, and export-to-domestic transitions. The discussions are seen as reactive rather than proactive, raising concerns about the timing of policy announcements [8][12][15]. Foreign Investment Sentiment - Foreign investment sentiment has been negatively impacted by the trade tensions, with reports indicating that the likelihood of a comprehensive agreement between China and the U.S. is low. Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have expressed concerns about a significant slowdown in China's economic growth in the coming quarters due to these external pressures [12][13][15]. Sector Performance - The article notes that various sectors are experiencing different levels of impact. The agriculture sector showed resilience with stocks like Beidahuang and Shen Nong Seed Industry seeing gains, while sectors such as electronics and machinery faced significant outflows of capital [24][33]. Institutional Investment Trends - Institutional investors have shown a mixed response, with significant net outflows from sectors like electronics and machinery, while agricultural stocks have attracted net inflows. The overall trend indicates a cautious approach from institutional investors amid market volatility [24][26][30].