Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in various ETFs related to gold and metals is attributed to a retreat in global macro sentiment, leading to sharp price fluctuations in gold and silver [1][3] ETF Performance Summary - Gold Stock ETF (517400) decreased by 10.01% with a year-to-date increase of 37.93% - Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) fell by 9.86% with a year-to-date increase of 21.95% - Mining ETF (561330) dropped by 9.83% with a year-to-date increase of 24.44% - Gold ETF Guotai (518800) declined by 7.33% with a year-to-date increase of 18.56% [1] Price Fluctuation Analysis - Spot gold experienced a daily fluctuation of nearly $500, closing at $5,377.16 per ounce after a V-shaped recovery [1] - Spot silver also exhibited significant volatility during the same period [1] Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The market is witnessing a shift in sentiment, with some investors comparing gold and silver to "internet stocks," indicating a speculative rather than value-storing approach [3] - The increase in margin requirements for gold futures by the CME has dampened short-term bullish sentiment among leveraged investors [3] Long-term Outlook for Gold - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong, supported by its financial attributes and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization [4][5] - Central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, with notable increases from countries like China and Poland [5] Geopolitical Risks and Market Dynamics - Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East are expected to sustain market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6] - The upcoming Chinese New Year may lead to liquidity concerns, potentially increasing market volatility [6] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider long-term investment opportunities in gold-related ETFs, particularly the Gold ETF Guotai (518800) and Gold Stock ETF (517400) for potential valuation recovery [7][8]

交易员将重点关注北美时段公布的美国生产者价格指数（PPI）及美联储官员的进一步表态。新任美联 储主席的正式提名及政策倾向，将成为影响美元需求及黄金中期定价的重要因素。在利率前景、制度独 立性及地缘政治风险交织的环境下，美元的反弹空间可能有限，而黄金的下行节奏更可能呈现"回吐而 非反转"。 整体来看，黄金本轮回调主要源于短期政治风险缓解与获利盘集中释放，而非核心逻辑根本改变。美联 储独立性风险、贸易摩擦和地缘政治不稳仍构成中期支撑。在金价趋势性见顶尚未确认前，市场更可能 将当前波动视作高位整固中的阶段性调整。 短期政治风险缓解并未消除市场对美联储独立性的关注，人事变动预期反而加剧了不确定性。特朗普确 认将在周五上午公布接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新任主席人选，多家权威媒体指出前美联储理事凯文·沃什可 能成为提名对象。沃什长期批评美联储政策立场，并在降息问题上与特朗普立场高度一致。市场认为， 这一人事动向可能加剧美联储未来政策独立性的不确定性，也是此前美元承压、黄金快速上涨的重要背 景。尽管美联储在本周会议上维持利率不变，并重申谨慎政策路径，但白宫持续施压仍让市场难以完全 建立对美元中期前景的信心。 外部环境方面，特朗普 ...

Market Overview - The overall trend of bulk commodities is characterized by significant fluctuations, with domestic commodities experiencing a two-day rise followed by a morning pullback, while international markets (precious metals, crude oil) also show substantial volatility, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears without clear directional continuation [3][23]. Strongest/Weakest Sectors and Core Products - Strong sectors include precious metals, with Shanghai silver rising 8.32% to set a new historical high, and international gold showing a V-shaped reversal with over 10% intraday volatility [4][23]. - The non-ferrous metals sector, represented by Shanghai copper and LME copper, also performed well, with Shanghai copper increasing by 6.18% and LME copper by 4.73%, supported by a decline in Chilean copper production [4][23]. - The energy and chemical sector saw Shanghai crude oil rise by 6%, driven by cost increases and geopolitical tensions from military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz [4][23]. - Conversely, the photovoltaic raw material sector, particularly polysilicon, faced a downturn, with a 6.18% drop in the polysilicon 2605 contract due to high inventory and demand exhaustion [4][23]. Core Trading Strategies and Execution - The strategy emphasizes profit-taking and risk management, with previous long positions being closed to lock in gains, while maintaining a light long position in PVC2605 and focusing on the bearish trend of polysilicon [6][24]. - Previous long positions in fuel, plastics, and non-ferrous metals achieved significant profits, with Shanghai copper and silver exceeding 63% gains [27][30]. - The current strategy for PVC2605 involves a light long position with a maximum allocation of 10% of total equity, aiming for a first profit target of 4970-4980 points and a subsequent target of 5100-5150 points [28][30]. Global Market Context - Internationally, macroeconomic tensions are evident, with contrasting positions from Trump advocating for interest rate cuts and Powell maintaining high rates, leading to increased volatility in the dollar [25]. - Geopolitical risks are heightened due to military exercises planned by Iran, which are expected to boost demand for oil and precious metals as safe-haven assets [25]. - The market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with international precious metals showing intraday volatility exceeding 8% and Bitcoin dropping over 6% [25]. Domestic Market Dynamics - Regulatory bodies have issued warnings regarding increased market uncertainty ahead of the Spring Festival, urging investors to act rationally [26]. - Domestic commodities are influenced by both internal and external market dynamics, with Shanghai silver and copper leading gains while polysilicon faces downward pressure due to high inventory levels [26]. Future Considerations - The company plans to maintain a cautious approach, focusing on light positions and closely monitoring the stop-loss levels for PVC2605, while tracking the bearish trend in polysilicon for potential short opportunities [33][37]. - The strategy will prioritize high liquidity and clear trend products, avoiding low volatility items with unclear supply-demand dynamics [36].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 1月29日晚及1月30日，国际和国内贵金属价格集体冲高后大幅回落。 截至1月30日下午休市，COMEX黄金期货最活跃合约较历史高点回落幅度超过7%，跌破了5200美元/盎 司；上海黄金期货4月合约价格较昨日创下的高点1258.72元/克下跌超7%。与此同时，白银价格跌幅更 大，COMEX白银和上海白银期货最活跃合约较昨日高点跌幅超过10%。 同时，截至上午收盘，国内期货市场铂、钯主力合约也均大幅下行，跌幅分别为11.79%、11.87%。受 贵金属价格下行影响，沪锡主力合约2603跌幅8.26%、沪镍、沪铝分别下跌超3%。 "贵金属的大幅回调，与我们之前提醒的三大风险有很大关系，一是美联储在1月没有继续降息；二是避 险买盘消退，反映市场恐慌的VIX指数在1月29日降至16.88，一般高于20代表市场恐慌。三是贵金属多 头甚至程序化交易的持仓集中平仓所致，因贵金属多头极度拥挤，一开始是小范围止盈平仓，稍后会因 引发大范围的多头踩踏式出逃。"华闻期货有限公司总经理助理程小勇分析，美联储主席人选的敲定降 低了市场的不确定性和美联储货币政策独立 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in precious metal prices has led to systemic cost pressures in the electronic components industry, resulting in widespread price increases ranging from 5% to 30% [1][4] - Unlike previous cycles driven by short-term supply and demand changes, this price increase, starting in late 2025 and fully launching in early 2026, is characterized by its unprecedented breadth and depth [1] - The primary demand drivers for this price increase are identified as AI servers, new energy vehicles, and high-end industrial applications, making price hikes a necessity rather than an option [1] Group 1: Current Status of Precious Metal Companies - As of January 30, there are 64,900 existing precious metal-related companies in China [4][7] - The registration volume of related companies has shown fluctuations over the past decade, with a notable increase in registrations starting from 2023, growing by 33.11% and 6.74% in 2023 and 2024 respectively [4] - The total registration volume is expected to rebound to 11,000 in 2025, marking a 50.72% year-on-year increase [4] Group 2: Capital Distribution of Precious Metal Companies - The majority of precious metal-related companies have registered capital of 1 million yuan or less, accounting for 26.59% of the total [7] - Companies with registered capital of 10 million yuan or more make up 30.4% of the total, with those between 10 million and 50 million yuan representing 20.36% [7] Group 3: Regional Distribution of Precious Metal Companies - The highest concentration of precious metal-related companies is found in South China, accounting for 31.77% of the total [9] - East China and Central China follow, with 24.75% and 13.67% of companies respectively [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday in February, market sentiment may be more cautious, and capital reduction may bring correction pressure. Geopolitical situations in the Middle East and South America, the announcement of the Fed Chair candidate, and the release of US economic data may cause uncertainty in precious metals. With reduced liquidity, market fluctuations may be more intense, and investors are advised to operate cautiously and use options to protect long - position profits. In the long term, although the Fed's monetary policy is short - term cautious, the long - term easing expectation remains unchanged. Trade frictions, geopolitical risks, and the "de - dollarization" trend will support the price of precious metals [7][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - This week, driven by macro - geopolitical concerns and capital sentiment, precious metal prices rose significantly. However, due to tightened market liquidity caused by US stock fluctuations, concentrated long - position stop - profits led to a sharp short - term decline in precious metals. On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai gold AU2604 ended its "five - consecutive - day rise" with a 4.71% drop, and the main contract of Shanghai silver AG2604 dropped 6.03%. Platinum and palladium futures were more affected by the decline in commodity and stock markets, with the main contract PT2606 dropping 11.79% and PD2606 dropping 11.87% [1]. Driving Factors Impact of US Stock Market - The release of Q4 2025 earnings reports of US technology companies showed that Microsoft's large AI capital expenditure without corresponding business growth led to concerns about the mismatch between high valuations and investment returns. Its stock price dropped over 10% on Thursday, with a market value loss of $420 billion. This triggered a chain reaction in the financial market, causing a general decline in US stocks. Precious metals and other commodities experienced a "flash crash" due to concentrated long - position stop - profits. International gold prices dropped over 8% and international silver prices dropped over 12% [2]. Physical Delivery and Supply - The previous sharp rise in silver prices was related to the tight physical supply. The industrial and investment demand for silver increased, causing the visible inventories in New York and Shanghai to reach new lows. However, after the COMEX silver January contract expired with a 50 - million - ounce physical delivery on Thursday, the delivery demand for the February contract decreased. In the London spot market, the silver ETF holdings decreased, and the market lending rate dropped to a recent low, indicating a temporary withdrawal of long - position forces. In China, the silver inventories in the two Shanghai exchanges continued to decline, with the SHFE silver inventory decreasing by 26.4 tons on Friday, reaching a new low in over 10 years [5]. Market Outlook - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand becoming the largest source. Central bank gold purchases slowed down by one - fifth to 863 tons, while investment demand increased by 84% to 2175 tons. Gold ETF holdings increased by 801 tons, and the purchase of gold bars and coins rose by 16% to 1374 tons, a 12 - year high [7].

| S | | --- | | 第一部分 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | 第二部分 行情复盘 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 第三部分 宏观面因素 5 | | | 一、美元指数弱势表现或有转向 5 | | | 第四部分 基本面情况 6 | | | 一、铂、钯基本面 | 6 | | （一）铂钯供需平衡 | 6 | | （二）铂金、钯金原生供应弹性有限，回收供应将有趋势增长 8 | | | （四）铂金、钯金需求 | 12 | | 免责声明 | 15 | 有色板块研发报告 铂钯月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 情绪遇冷后行情盘整 基本面强弱格局依旧 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2026 年 1 月，铂钯价格主要受宏观情绪、地缘风险与产业预期三重 因素驱动，逻辑主线清晰。美国宏观数据的坚韧没能带动美元的走强， 地缘危机和特朗普政府的言论导致贵金属板块集体获得强劲的避险与 "去美元化"买盘推动。基本面而言，铂金处于结构性短缺格局，表现 坚挺；钯金则因需求疲软面临过剩压力 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Standard Allocation" [65] Core Views - The non-ferrous metal industry has shown significant performance, with a 17.64% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 17.59 percentage points, ranking first among 31 industries [16] - The precious metals sector has surged by 50.93%, while industrial metals and minor metals have increased by 18.14% and 14.96%, respectively, indicating a growing divergence within the sector [22] - The report highlights the potential for further price increases in industrial metals due to improving supply-demand dynamics and the ongoing global interest rate cuts [59] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 29, 2026, the non-ferrous metal industry has risen by 32.96% this month, leading all sectors [16] - The precious metals sector has seen a remarkable increase of 75.88% this month, while industrial metals have risen by 32.98% [22] Price Analysis - As of January 29, 2026, key prices include: - LME Copper: $13,705/ton - LME Aluminum: $3,233.50/ton - LME Lead: $2,011/ton - LME Zinc: $3,453/ton - LME Nickel: $18,520/ton - LME Tin: $54,500/ton [28] Precious Metals - As of January 29, 2026, COMEX Gold is priced at $5,410.80/oz, up $1,068.9 since the beginning of January, while COMEX Silver is at $115.79/oz, up $44.81 [38] Energy Metals - As of January 29, 2026, Lithium carbonate futures are priced at ¥164,800/ton, up ¥43,200 since early January, while Cobalt is at ¥446,100/ton, down ¥16,000 [43] Minor Metals - As of January 29, 2026, the rare earth price index is at 258.08, up 41.06 since early January, with Neodymium Oxide averaging ¥744/kg, up ¥136.5 [45] Company Announcements - Zijin Mining's second phase of the Giant Dragon Copper Mine has commenced production, expected to significantly increase copper output [55] - Ganfeng Lithium anticipates a net profit of ¥369 million to ¥553 million for 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [54]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector experienced a significant decline of 8.88% on January 30, with Xiaocheng Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1] - Key stocks in the precious metals sector showed varied performance, with Hunan Shoujin rising by 9.99% to a closing price of 37.00, while several others, including Sichuan Gold and Shandong Gold, fell by 10% [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds from the precious metals sector was 417 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.083 billion yuan [3][4] - Specific stocks like Hunan Shoujin had a main fund net inflow of 388 million yuan, while Xiaocheng Technology faced a net outflow of 221 million yuan [4] - The trading volume for Hunan Shoujin reached 3.6441 million hands, indicating significant activity despite the overall sector decline [1][4] Group 3 - The Gold ETF (product code: 518850) tracked the Shanghai Gold Exchange spot contract and saw a 15.08% increase over the past five days, with a net subscription of 240 million yuan [6] - The Gold Stock ETF (product code: 159562) tracked the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index, increasing by 19.52% in the last five days, with a net subscription of 1.07 billion yuan [7] - The Non-ferrous Metals ETF (product code: 516650) tracked the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Industry Theme Index, rising by 16.34% over the past five days, with a net subscription of 1.39 billion yuan [8]

Market Overview - Precious metals experienced significant volatility, with gold prices dropping by 4.45% and silver by 7.05% as of the latest report [1] - The domestic commodity futures market saw most contracts decline, with lithium carbonate hitting a limit down of 10.99% and palladium dropping nearly 12% [1] - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.66%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.27% [4] Precious Metals Analysis - Since 2026, the precious metals market has seen substantial increases, with gold, silver, and platinum reaching historical highs, and silver prices experiencing a monthly surge of over 60% [3] - Recent market corrections are attributed to several factors, including significant fund liquidation, with the world's largest silver ETF reducing holdings by nearly 1,000 tons [3] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down the market, increasing the cost of capital and prompting profit-taking among investors [3] A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market showed a cumulative increase of 3.76% in January, characterized by a "high after narrow fluctuations" trend, stabilizing above the 4100-point mark [5] - Analysts noted that the valuation levels of hot sectors have risen significantly, with the CSI 500 index's dynamic PE exceeding the standard deviation of the past five years [7] - Regulatory bodies emphasized the need for stable market conditions, discouraging excessive speculation and manipulation, indicating a preference for sustainable growth over rapid increases [7]