Group 1 - The overall performance of major assets shows that the equity, bond, and commodity markets are stabilizing with narrow fluctuations [2][9] - The A-share market is experiencing a high-level narrow fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining a continuous upward trend, although affected by pre-holiday risk aversion [3][11] - The domestic macroeconomic data continues to improve, with PMI rising and remaining in the expansion zone, while the RMB continues to appreciate against the USD, providing support for the market [3][12] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with liquidity easing providing a support base while upward movement is capped by the equity market [6][36] - The bond market configuration suggests that it may continue to experience a period of oscillation, with short-term bonds likely to perform better due to their flexibility [6][36] Group 3 - The commodity market is stabilizing after a slight decline, with precious metals like gold and silver experiencing adjustments after significant gains [7][44] - The outlook for precious metals remains positive in the medium to long term, with expectations of upward movement due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and a declining status of the US dollar [7][44] - The recommendation for commodity allocation suggests maintaining positions in gold [7][47] Group 4 - The report suggests an "barbell strategy" for A-share allocation, focusing on offensive sectors like telecommunications and commercial aviation while retaining cash for potential post-holiday volatility [5][13] - The focus on technology innovation sectors is emphasized as a key driver for market performance in the medium to long term, particularly in the context of national competition and industrial transformation [11][13]

周度报告-黄金 多头获利了结，贵金属高位回落 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2026 年 1 月 4 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 4.4%至 4332 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率升至 4.19%， 通胀预期 2.26%，实际利率微升至 1.93%，美元指数涨 0.46%至 98.4， 标普 500 指数跌 1.03%，人民币升值破 7，沪金维持折价。 贵 金 属 贵金属冲高回落，白银剧烈波动，国际银价一度上涨至 82 美元/ 盎司后下跌至 72.8 美元/盎司，当周收跌 8.2%。随着 12 月交割月 的结束白银短期逼空行情告一段落，CME 一周两度上调黄金、白 银等贵金属保证金，上海期货交易所亦小幅上调贵金属保证金， 交易所降温意图明显，多头在元旦假期前获利了结离场。1 月 8-14 日，Bloomberg 商品指数迎来年度权重调整，由于 2025 年贵金属 涨幅显著高于能源、农场品等其他大宗商品，贵金属权重需要被 动降低，跟踪该指数的基金也需要相应做出调整，短期会给贵金 属带来抛压，波动预计仍会增加，但不改变长期趋势。 基本面维度关注即将公 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold has seen an annual increase of approximately 64%, marking the strongest performance in recent years and the largest annual increase since 1979, setting a 46-year record [1] - Silver has outperformed gold with an annual increase exceeding 147%, achieving the strongest annual performance on record [1] - Platinum has risen over 126%, also setting a record for the largest annual increase, despite a year-end drop of 6% to $2054 [1] - Palladium has increased by more than 75%, marking its best annual performance in 15 years [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market indices have experienced declines, with the Dow down 0.67%, S&P 500 down 1.03%, and Nasdaq down 1.52% [2] - The upcoming week is crucial for economic data releases, including manufacturing, services, job vacancies, and the non-farm payroll report [2][3] - The market anticipates an addition of approximately 55,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.6% [3] - A moderate decline in job growth could provide the Federal Reserve with reasons to continue lowering interest rates, positively impacting the stock market [3] - The current market and Federal Reserve appear to be at odds, with the market betting on two rate cuts in 2026, while the Fed's projections suggest only one [3][4] Group 3: Geopolitical Events and Oil Market Impact - The U.S. has launched a military operation in Venezuela, resulting in significant casualties and political unrest [5] - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the immediate impact on global oil markets is expected to be limited, as Venezuela's oil production is currently low [6] - Key oil infrastructure in Venezuela remains operational, reducing the risk of substantial supply disruptions in the short term [6] Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold - The ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties are likely to continue influencing the gold market [8] - If economic growth slows and interest rates decline further, gold prices may experience moderate increases [8] - Conversely, if U.S. policies lead to accelerated economic growth and reduced geopolitical risks, this could exert downward pressure on gold prices [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][54]. Core Views - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, which may enhance the strategic resource pricing of metals. The gold market is expected to maintain its safe-haven appeal due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the unresolved U.S. debt issue, leading to a potential long-term increase in gold prices [4]. - Industrial metals are anticipated to see an upward trend in pricing due to increased financial attributes and tightening supply conditions, particularly for copper and aluminum [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of December 31, 2025, the nonferrous metal index closed at 9342.49 points, up 0.4% month-on-month. The precious metal index decreased by 2.2%, while the industrial metal index increased by 2.1% [10]. 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - As of December 31, the COMEX gold futures contract was priced at $4341.9 per ounce, down 4.8% month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.6% to 1065 tons. The report suggests that the recent price drop is a short-term adjustment in a longer-term upward trend for gold prices [4]. 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - The SHFE copper futures contract was priced at 98,240 RMB per ton as of December 31, down 0.49% month-on-month. Domestic copper social inventory reached 238,900 tons, while LME copper inventory was at 145,000 tons. The report indicates a tightening supply expectation for copper, with a potential upward revaluation of copper prices in the medium term [6]. 3.2 Aluminum - The SHFE aluminum futures contract rose by 2.3% to 22,925 RMB per ton as of December 31. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 684,000 tons, with LME aluminum inventory at 509,300 tons. The report anticipates that aluminum prices will maintain a high-level fluctuation due to a supportive macro environment [6]. 3.3 Tin - The SHFE tin futures contract fell by 4.6% to 322,900 RMB per ton as of December 31. Domestic tin social inventory was 8,520 tons, and LME tin inventory was 5,415 tons. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues in the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia are expected to keep the tin market tight [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: - **Gold**: Continued geopolitical uncertainty supports gold's safe-haven status. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. - **Copper**: Domestic demand recovery and tightening supply conditions suggest a positive outlook. Recommended stock: Luoyang Molybdenum. - **Aluminum**: Strong demand against weak supply conditions may drive aluminum prices higher. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [7][51].

2025 年，在金融市场"贵金属"无疑是这场盛宴中最耀眼的明星。社交平台上，有位网友投资者靠投资黄金狂赚近 70 万元！ 地缘政治的紧张局势也为贵金属市场的火爆添了一把火。中东和俄乌地区的地缘政治冲突持续不断，这些地区的不稳定因素如同高悬在全球经济头顶的达 摩克利斯之剑，让投资者们忧心忡忡。在这种充满不确定性的环境下，投资者们纷纷寻求避险资产，以保护自己的财富。而黄金，作为传统的避险资产， 自然成为了投资者们的首选。当冲突爆发时，市场的避险情绪急剧升温，对黄金的需求也随之大幅增加。就像在暴风雨中，人们纷纷寻找避风港，黄金就 如同那坚固的港湾，吸引着投资者们的资金涌入，从而推动了黄金价格的上涨 。 全球央行的购金热潮也是推动贵金属价格上涨的重要力量。近年来，各国央行纷纷增加黄金储备，这一趋势在 2025 年尤为明显。据世界黄金协会发布的 2025 年三季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，尽管金价处于创纪录高位，三季度全球央行依然加快了购金步伐，净购金量总计 220 吨，较二季度增长 28%，较上年同比增长 10%；前三季度全球央行净购金总量达 634 吨，虽低于过去三年的异常高位数值，但仍显著高于 2022 年之 ...

Group 1: Venezuela's Economic Decline - Venezuela has transitioned from a prosperous nation to one of the most severe economic downturns globally, with 86% of its population living in poverty and a GDP contraction exceeding 70% since 1999 [1][3] - The country experienced hyperinflation, peaking at 10 million percent in 2019, leading to a situation where citizens used money as toilet paper rather than for purchases [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. has engaged in aggressive actions in Venezuela, viewing it as a strategic move in a broader geopolitical game, particularly concerning oil and resources [2][7] - The U.S. has signaled a new Monroe Doctrine, indicating that its interests in the Western Hemisphere will not be limited to Venezuela alone, suggesting a potential escalation in regional conflicts [8] Group 3: Commodity Market Reactions - The recent geopolitical tensions are expected to impact commodity markets, particularly gold and silver, with significant sell-offs anticipated due to rebalancing in the Bloomberg Commodity Index [10][12] - Analysts predict substantial sell-offs in precious metals, estimating around $3.8 billion in total for gold and silver due to market adjustments [11][12]

摘要今日周日(1月4日)休市。现货黄金收报3759.40美元/盎司，上涨11.27美元/元或0.30%，日内最高上 探3734.55美元/盎司，最低触及3734.28美元/盎司。 今日周日(1月4日)休市。现货黄金收报3759.40美元/盎司，上涨11.27美元/元或0.30%，日内最高上探 3734.55美元/盎司，最低触及3734.28美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 同日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表讲话，针对美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动表示，"绝不会向敌人屈服"。 他强调，当敌人试图将其意志强加于国家、政府及人民时，必须坚定反抗，挺起胸膛抵御侵略，"我们 绝不向敌人低头"。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 黄金行情，昨天2026年第一个交易日，我们昨天文章指出黄金4300之上先看上行，然后关注4400美元大 关阻力看回落;从最终走势来看，行情和我们预期一致!目前盘面来看，黄金去年11月初开启的扫荡式上 涨，最终在创出历史新高4550美元后，受芝加哥商品交易所提高保证金影响迎来高位跳水，截止目前为 止最低4275，下跌275美元;本周周线收取一根大阴线，略带上下影! 单就周线而言，上方抛盘压力较大，行情还要调整;但是，黄金 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.67%, Nasdaq down 1.52%, and S&P 500 down 1.03% for the week. In contrast, European indices saw gains, with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.86%, Germany's DAX 30 up 0.77%, and France's CAC 40 up 1.03% [1]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming US employment data and ISM manufacturing and services activity data will be critical for assessing the health of the US economy and the potential timing of the next Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The market anticipates an 85% probability that the Fed will maintain rates at the January 28 meeting, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut by June [2]. - The Eurozone inflation data will also be closely watched, with expectations that it will not alter the European Central Bank's current monetary policy stance [7]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions have escalated, particularly with the US military's actions against Venezuelan President Maduro, which may impact commodity markets [1][5]. - The upcoming CES 2026 in Las Vegas will feature major tech leaders and could influence the stability of the AI sector [3]. Commodity Markets - Oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude up 1.02% to $57.32 per barrel and Brent crude up 0.85% to $60.75 per barrel. However, both benchmarks have experienced nearly a 20% decline in 2025, marking the largest annual drop since 2020 [4]. - The precious metals market faced significant volatility, with gold futures down 4.40% to $4,332.01 per ounce and silver futures down 7.93% to $70.55 per ounce due to profit-taking and increased margin requirements [5][6]. Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases are scheduled for the upcoming week, including Japan's manufacturing PMI, Australia's service PMI, and various US employment figures, which will provide insights into economic conditions [9].

Group 1 - The geopolitical risks, particularly the escalating tensions between the US and Iran, are driving market sentiment towards safe-haven assets, notably gold [1][3] - As of the latest trading session, February gold futures rose by $6.3, closing at $4347.4 per ounce, reflecting a clear risk-driven market behavior [1] - The US Treasury market showed stability on the first trading day of 2026, with the 10-year Treasury yield maintaining around 4.10%, influenced by holiday trading conditions [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicate a more open attitude towards easing monetary policy if inflation continues to decline, although there are still disagreements on the timing and extent of rate cuts [3] - The market anticipates two potential rate cuts in 2026, with attention on upcoming key economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report [3] - The gold futures market is currently targeting a price above the historical high of $4584.00 per ounce, while short positions aim to push prices below the critical support level of $4200.00 per ounce [4]

2025年12月31日国际贵金属价格显著下跌 贵金属市场方面，有报道称芝加哥商品交易所集团在美国时间周三收盘后再次提高包括黄金、白银、铂 金、钯金在内的贵金属期货保证金，这也是芝商所一周内第二次上调保证金。大量投机资金赶在新规生 效前平仓，引发更多投资者获利了结，贵金属市场周三再次出现大幅波动，黄金期货主力合约价格下跌 超1%，白银以及铂金期货主力合约价格下跌幅度接近9.4%，钯金期货下跌超4%。 2025年国际贵金属价格强势上涨 2025年以来，以黄金为代表的贵金属受到资本热捧。在美联储降息、央行购金热潮、ETF持仓增加以及 避险情绪升温的共同作用下，纽约黄金期价累计上涨超过64%，这是自1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。 2025年12月31日美国三大股指集体收跌 当地时间周三，也是美国股市2025年的最后一个交易日，市场交投清淡，部分投资者锁定利润、获利回 吐，令美国三大股指承压下跌。截至收盘，道指下跌0.63%，标普500指数下跌0.74%，纳指下跌 0.76%。 科技股波动加剧 美股2025年大幅震荡收涨 回顾2025年，美国股市在关税政策的不确定性、人工智能行业盈利前景的隐忧以及美联储是否重启降息 周 ...