[Table_Title] 谁来接棒托底内需？ 丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 ——11 月经济数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从 11 月经济和政策信号来看，一方面是过去经济增长的结构性支撑在持续转弱，但另一方面， 政策对短期波动的定力不减反增：2025 年中央经济工作会议首次提出（将）"存量政策和增量 政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。"12 月政治局会议首次提出"坚持内需主导"，均体现出在 政策端对于加速培育新业态发展的决心进一步增强。我们认为，在人口老龄化、地方化债的背 景下，地产基建投资或难有显著改善，"反内卷"则抑制着制造业投资的弹性，这意味着投资的 上行空间较为有限，叠加耐用品消费明显承压，服务消费料将成为 2026 托底内需的主要抓手。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ——11 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 12 月 15 日，国家统计局公布 11 月经济数 ...

简评：11月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳中有进发展态势。但外部不稳定不确定因素较多，国内有 效需求不足，经济运行面临不少挑战。下阶段，更加积极有为的宏观政策有望得以实施，从而持续扩大 内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有 效提升和量的合理增长。 12月15日，国家统计局数据显示，2025年11月份，70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降、同比 降幅扩大。一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，同比下降 1.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点；二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.1%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点， 同比下降5.8%，降幅比上月扩大1.4个百分点。 简评：11月70城房价数据呈现"环比总体下降、同比降幅扩大"的特征，其中一线城市11月房价表现不 佳，无论是新房还是二手房，同环比跌幅均有所扩大。投资与销售的双降或显示行业仍处于深度调整 期，基本面尚未扭转。往后看，在中央"着力稳定房地产市场"的定调及各地"因城施策"下，房地产市场 有望在结构分化中逐步寻底。 央行12月12日发布2025年11月金融统计数据报告显 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Mould Technology (SZ 000700) held a temporary board meeting on December 15, 2025, to discuss the proposal for the first temporary shareholders' meeting of 2026 [1] - For the first half of 2025, Mould Technology's revenue composition was as follows: automotive industry accounted for 92.83%, medical industry 3.48%, casting 2.58%, and real estate 1.11% [1] - As of the report, Mould Technology's market capitalization was 10.1 billion yuan [1]

11月经济呈现出 "工业稳、投资与消费缓" 的格局。鉴于政策效果将在明年一季度更为充分显现，当前消费与投资仍面临阶段性逆风，"谁先企 稳"对明年经济"开门红"具有关键的信号意义。对此，我们认为可以从如下角度考虑： 投资端："乌云中的银线"。虽然房地产下行压力仍在释放，但基建与制造业已不时释放积极信号：11月制造业投资增速止跌回升，初步显现"拐 点"；建筑业PMI表现偏强，叠加新增专项债加速发力项目建设，表明"稳投资"的政策储备与执行已在跟进。 消费端：增速放缓背后的复杂局面。除高基数效应外，前期"国补"政策的火热、"双十一"促销前置，均在一定程度上透支了部分消费力，对短期 消费增速形成压制。长远来看，消费复苏仍需依赖消费场景实质性拓展以及居民收入预期改善。 尤其在中央经济工作会议"推动投资止跌回稳"的指引下，"稳投资"政策意图明确。投资有望先于消费实现企稳，成为支撑明年一季度"开门红"的 主要亮点。后续关键仍在于政策"愿望清单"能否如期兑现、向实物工作量有效转化。 工业：同环比背离释放了哪些信号？与改善幅度明显强于季节性的环比增速不同，11月工业增加值同比增速却小幅放缓至4.8%（前值4.9%），两 者的背离 ...

截至发稿，珠免集团市值为129亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——"一针两千，童颜针年销3亿元"背后：多家关联方注册地"查无此人"，股民 追问"钱呢"！钱氏姐弟几乎"掏空"江苏吴中，公司即将退市 每经AI快讯，珠免集团（SH 600185，收盘价：6.83元）12月15日晚间发布公告称，截至2025年12月15 日，公司对外担保余额为68.77亿元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产11.65亿元的比例为590%，包括对公 司及其属下控股公司提供的担保；公司为关联方重庆两江新区格力地产有限公司提供反担保余额为7.94 亿元。 2025年1至6月份，珠免集团的营业收入构成为：免税商品销售占比61.4%，房地产占比24.43%，其他占 比12.4%，其他业务占比1.78%。 （记者 曾健辉） ...

Core Insights - The analysis by Western Fixed Income indicates a significant decline in credit bond defaults for 2025, suggesting an improvement in the credit environment [1] Group 1: Default Trends - The number and amount of credit bond defaults have continued to decrease, with 16 defaults totaling 15.084 billion yuan in 2025, representing a reduction of 54 defaults and 77.145 billion yuan compared to 2024 [2] - The historical peak of default amounts occurred in 2021, with a steady decline observed since then, indicating an improving credit environment [2] - Among the defaults, 11 were substantial defaults, while 5 were extensions, with substantial defaults making up 73.4% of the total from 2014 to 2025 [2] Group 2: Defaulting Entities - All 16 defaulting bonds in 2025 were issued by non-state-owned enterprises, with the real estate sector having the highest number of defaults (4 entities), followed by non-bank financials (3 entities) [4] - The total number of defaulting entities from 2014 to 2025 shows a significant predominance of non-state-owned enterprises, with 265 defaults compared to 46 from state-owned enterprises, indicating higher stability and risk resistance in state-owned enterprises [5] Group 3: Industry Distribution - Defaulting entities span across 30 primary industries, with real estate (57 entities), comprehensive (36 entities), and basic chemicals (18 entities) being the most affected [6] - The real estate sector experienced a peak in defaults from 2022 to 2023, but the number has decreased to 4 in 2025, although it remains a primary risk area in the credit bond market [6] Group 4: Default Rates and Recovery - The marginal default rate for 2025 is 0.22%, the second lowest since 2014, with a total of 5,568 effective issuers at the beginning of the year [9] - The overall recovery rate for defaults since 2014 is 13.76%, with state-owned enterprises achieving a recovery rate of 27.12%, significantly higher than the 10.28% for non-state-owned enterprises [9][11]

| 代码 | 简称 | 最新收盘价（元） | 日涨跌幅（%） | 日换手率（%） | 市净率（倍） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600200 | 退市苏吴 | 0.37 | -9.76 | 5.49 | 0.15 | 医药生物 | | 300344 | *ST立方 | 1.47 | 2.80 | 10.37 | 4.18 | 计算机 | | 000656 | *ST金科 | 1.48 | 0.68 | 0.65 | | 房地产 | | 601005 | 重庆钢铁 | 1.48 | 0.68 | 1.69 | 0.80 | 钢铁 | | 600022 | 山东钢铁 | 1.50 | -0.66 | 1.05 | 0.85 | 钢铁 | | 002146 | 荣盛发展 | 1.56 | 0.65 | 2.31 | 0.57 | 房地产 | | 002717 | ST岭南 | 1.61 | -1.23 | 1.76 | 3.41 | 建筑装饰 | | 600157 | 永泰能源 | 1.61 | 0.63 | 2.44 | 0.75 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative potential of AI in the real estate industry, highlighting the launch of the "AI-Ready" strategy by Deep Intelligence, which aims to integrate AI deeply into the real estate sector, marking a shift from efficiency tools to comprehensive system restructuring [1][4]. Group 1: Growth Path - The real estate industry in China is entering a "stock era," focusing on operational efficiency, with Deep Intelligence positioning itself as a leader in AI innovation for this sector [2]. - Deep Intelligence builds on a solid foundation from its parent companies, leveraging 30 years of industry experience and 20 years of big data expertise to establish a clear development path towards "AI + Real Estate" [2]. - The company has developed core products that match the capabilities of mid to senior-level employees, demonstrating a strong understanding of the real estate domain compared to other AI platforms [2]. Group 2: AI-Ready Framework - Deep Intelligence's "AI-Ready" framework signifies readiness across data, knowledge, technology, business, and organization, encapsulated in a structured intelligent architecture [3]. - This framework acts as a vertical "intelligent operating system," ensuring consistency and professionalism from strategy to execution, delivering value in efficiency, cost, and quality [3]. Group 3: Building a Strong Moat - Deep Intelligence constructs a robust moat through four core capabilities: data, knowledge, industry expertise, and technology, creating a dedicated AI space for real estate [7][8]. - The data moat involves upgrading extensive datasets into a structured database for AI model accessibility, while the knowledge moat transforms unstructured knowledge into verifiable and retrievable formats [7]. - The industry moat incorporates expert "thinking coding" into AI, enabling it to replicate expert-level business understanding, while the technology moat ensures the integration of cutting-edge AI capabilities into products [8]. Group 4: Application Scenarios - Deep Intelligence has launched a series of eight products covering three major real estate scenarios, marking a significant step in making AI a reliable productivity tool in the industry [9]. - The company has restructured decision-making workflows in real estate, allowing users to obtain comprehensive analysis reports in a fraction of the time previously required [10]. - The introduction of "digital employees" signifies a new organizational model where AI collaborates with human workers, enhancing efficiency in various real estate tasks [11]. Group 5: Future Collaboration - Looking ahead to 2026, Deep Intelligence aims to strengthen its core advantages, iterate on products based on industry feedback, and open its capabilities and data interfaces to foster more AI applications in real estate [14]. - The "AI-Ready" initiative is not just about technology readiness but also invites collaboration across the industry to co-create an intelligent future [14].

Core Viewpoint - Vanke A's liquidity issues have led to a downgrade in its credit rating, with significant portions of its equity frozen due to legal actions, raising concerns about its financial stability and ability to meet short-term debt obligations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Health and Credit Rating - Vanke A's credit rating was downgraded to "CCC-" by S&P due to unsustainable financial commitments and risks of default or restructuring [1]. - The company has seen its equity in over 12 enterprises frozen, with the highest value being 570 million yuan related to Shenzhen Vanke Development Co., indicating severe liquidity issues [3][4]. - As of Q3 2025, Vanke A reported cash holdings of 65.7 billion yuan, while its interest-bearing liabilities totaled 362.9 billion yuan, leading to a significant short-term debt gap [4][5]. Group 2: Comparison with Peers - In comparison to peers like Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A has faced more severe liquidity challenges, with its stock price dropping significantly over the past two years [7][8]. - Other companies in the sector, such as China Merchants Shekou, reported a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.3, indicating better financial health [7]. Group 3: Market Reaction and Stock Performance - Following the news of equity freezes, Vanke A's stock price has experienced multiple declines, with a 15% drop in five trading days after the announcement of the 570 million yuan freeze [8][9]. - The stock has seen a 50% decline from early 2024 to December 11, 2025, making it the worst performer in the real estate sector during this period [8]. Group 4: Potential Solutions and Actions - Vanke A has options to resolve its liquidity issues, including settling debts, negotiating with creditors, or liquidating frozen assets to meet obligations [9]. - The company received a loan of up to 1.666 billion yuan from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, to alleviate short-term financial pressures [9].

Economic Overview - In November, the national economy continued to operate smoothly, with a focus on high-quality development and stable production supply [1][3] - The total grain output for the year reached 14.298 trillion jin, an increase of 167.5 billion jin or 1.2% year-on-year [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial production showed stable growth, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 4.8% year-on-year in November and 6.0% from January to November [1] - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 59,503 billion yuan from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [1] Service Sector - The service sector maintained steady growth, with the service production index rising by 4.2% year-on-year in November and 5.6% from January to November [1] - The revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.6% year-on-year from January to October [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [2] - Rural retail sales grew by 2.8%, while urban retail sales increased by 1.0% [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, while manufacturing investment grew by 1.9% [2] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 15.9% [2] Trade Performance - The total import and export value in November was 38,987 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [2] - Exports increased by 5.7% to 23,456 billion yuan, while imports rose by 1.7% to 15,531 billion yuan [2] Employment and Prices - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]