综合央视新闻等媒体报道，在北京时间周四凌晨的数小时里，原定于本周五进行的美伊谈判在谈崩边缘走了一遭后， 暂时回归正轨。 受此影响，国际油价日内大幅波动。布伦特原油在周四凌晨1点30分猛然拉涨超3%后，又在4点左右显著回落。不过 由于各方对美伊能谈出成果的期待进一步降低，目前布油仍维持着超1%的涨幅。 （布伦特原油分钟线图，来源：TradingView） 市场传闻起伏的背后，正是美伊两国在外交战线上的激烈博弈。 作为本周初的市场认知，在美国威胁对伊朗动武的背景下，两国同意于本周五在伊斯坦布尔举行会谈，周边相关国家 也将作为观察员列席。美国和伊朗将针对核协议进行双边会谈，然后对伊朗的弹道导弹、军事代理人等问题进行多边 会谈。 随后伊朗方面周二提出，希望将会谈地点改到阿曼，而且只跟美国进行双边会谈，以确保谈判仅聚焦于核问题。 据知情美国官员透露，美国方面一开始对这个提议持开放态度，但在周三告知伊朗"要么按照既有的安排来谈，要么 就不谈了"。随后伊朗回应称"那就不谈了吧"。 伊朗方面则通过官方媒体放风称，谈判取消的原因是美方施加了新的条件，以及双方在谈判问题上存在分歧，而非会 谈地点的问题。 随后就是全球金融市场目睹 ...

在美国难以消化委内瑞拉石油的情况下，本周有消息称印度或将加入委内瑞拉原油的销售网络。但印度 官方目前对此尚未回应。 据报道，影响美国炼油厂需求的另一大原因是油价。目前交付至美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区的委内瑞拉石油 价格每桶比基准布伦特价格要低9.5美元左右，这个价格较1月中旬已有两三美元的优惠，但相对于同样 运抵墨西哥湾沿岸地区的加拿大石油而言，却贵出差不多1美元。 目前，美国石油巨头雪佛龙除在委内瑞拉从事开采工作外，同时也掌握委内瑞拉石油外销权。此外，美 国政府还给大宗商品贸易公司维多集团以及托克集团颁发了经销委内瑞拉石油的许可证。但路透社梳理 发现，无论是雪佛龙还是维多集团和托克集团，要给大量委内瑞拉石油找到买家都很吃力。数据显示， 雪佛龙去年12月从委内瑞拉出口的石油量为每天9.9万桶，该数字到今年1月骤然升至每天22万桶。雪佛 龙首席执行官沃斯上周披露，目前该企业旗下的炼油厂每天能处理15万桶委内瑞拉石油，这意味着该企 业从委出口的石油还有大量剩余，卖不掉的就变成库存。近期船舶监测数据显示，多艘由雪佛龙租用、 装有委内瑞拉石油的油轮或在美国港口等数日才卸货，或在航行途中减速。 贸易公司维多集团和托克集团的销 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices surged due to ongoing tensions surrounding US-Iran nuclear negotiations, with market reactions reflecting concerns over geopolitical risks [4][17]. Market Performance - WTI crude oil futures closed at $65.14, up $1.93 (3.05%) - Brent crude oil futures closed at $69.46, up $2.13 (3.16%) - INE crude oil futures closed at 473.50 yuan, up 3.32% [6][19]. EIA Report Insights - US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decline of 0.82% - Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.05% - US crude oil production fell by 481,000 barrels to 1.3215 million barrels per day, marking the largest decline since January 19, 2024 [7][20]. Geopolitical Developments - The US is expected to issue a general license for oil production in Venezuela, aiming to boost the country's oil output [21]. - Iranian naval vessels approached a US-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting ongoing regional tensions and the potential for increased shipping risks [22][23]. Russian Oil Market - The price of Russian Urals crude oil has tripled compared to pre-sanction levels from October last year, with India expected to maintain stable imports of 1.1 to 1.3 million barrels per day in the near term [5][18].

目前，美国石油巨头雪佛龙除在委内瑞拉从事开采工作外，同时也掌握委内瑞拉石油外销权。此外，美 国政府还给大宗商品贸易公司维多集团以及托克集团颁发了经销委内瑞拉石油的许可证。但路透社梳理 发现，无论是雪佛龙还是维多集团和托克集团，要给大量委内瑞拉石油找到买家都很吃力。数据显示， 雪佛龙去年12月从委内瑞拉出口的石油量为每天9.9万桶，该数字到今年1月骤然升至每天22万桶。雪佛 龙首席执行官沃斯上周披露，目前该企业旗下的炼油厂每天能处理15万桶委内瑞拉石油，这意味着该企 业从委出口的石油还有大量剩余，卖不掉的就变成库存。近期船舶监测数据显示，多艘由雪佛龙租用、 装有委内瑞拉石油的油轮或在美国港口等数日才卸货，或在航行途中减速。 贸易公司维多集团和托克集团的销售情况同样不乐观。统计显示，这两大集团今年1月从委内瑞拉港口 出货了1200万桶石油，但大多数石油都运到了加勒比地区的存储终端加以存放，也就是说大部分石油并 没有被真正卖掉。这些贸易公司发现，在多重因素影响下，在墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油厂中很难找到足够的 买家，一位交易员表示："我们都面临着这样的问题，即有更多石油要出口，但却没有足够的买家。" 在美国难以消化委内瑞拉 ...

Core Viewpoint - Following President Trump's warning to Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, international oil prices surged, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][5]. Oil Price Movement - Brent crude oil futures for March delivery increased by $2.13, a rise of 3.16%, closing at $69.46 per barrel [2][6]. - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery rose by $1.93, a gain of 3.05%, closing at $65.14 per barrel [2][6]. U.S.-Iran Nuclear Negotiations - Reports indicate that U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are on the verge of collapse, with Trump threatening military action if Iran does not agree to a nuclear deal [2][7]. - The originally scheduled talks for Friday had raised hopes for easing tensions between the two nations [7]. Negotiation Challenges - U.S. officials noted uncertainty regarding the scheduled talks due to disagreements over the location and format [3][8]. - The U.S. proposed multilateral talks in Istanbul with other Middle Eastern countries as observers, while Iran preferred bilateral talks in Oman, leading to a deadlock [3][8]. Military Tensions - Prior to the news of stalled negotiations, the U.S. military announced the downing of an Iranian drone near the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier, highlighting ongoing military tensions in the region [4][9]. - Iranian media claimed the drone was conducting routine monitoring within international law [4][9].

美国能源信息管理局（EIA）库存报告还显示了上周有以下变动： 汽油库存增加68.5万桶，预估为增加75.5万桶； 美国能源信息管理局（EIA）库存报告还显示了上周有以下变动： 馏分油库存减少555.3万桶，预估为减少108.1万桶； 库欣原油库存减少74.3万桶； 原油进口量增加55.9万桶/日； 原油产量减少48.1万桶/日。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：丁文武 汽油库存增加68.5万桶，预估为增加75.5万桶； 馏分油库存减少555.3万桶，预估为减少108.1万桶； 库欣原油库存减少74.3万桶； 原油进口量增加55.9万桶/日； 原油产量减少48.1万桶/日。 责任编辑：丁文武 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...

Core Viewpoint - In January, Russia's oil revenue fell to its lowest level in over five years, primarily due to declining global oil prices, increased discounts on Russian oil, and a strengthening ruble impacting the fiscal situation [1] Group 1: Oil Revenue Decline - Oil-related tax revenue in January dropped by 50% year-on-year to 281.7 billion rubles (approximately 3.7 billion USD) [1] - Total revenue from oil and gas also decreased by 50%, amounting to 393.3 billion rubles [1] - Oil and gas revenues account for about one-quarter of Russia's total fiscal income [1] Group 2: Price and Discount Dynamics - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 15% year-on-year during the fiscal period [1] - The price of Russia's flagship Urals crude oil was approximately 26 USD per barrel lower than the benchmark Brent crude [1] - A year ago, the discount on Urals crude was just over 12 USD per barrel [1] Group 3: Currency Impact - The ruble strengthened significantly, with an average exchange rate of 78.4368 rubles per USD in December, appreciating nearly 25% compared to the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in the energy dynamics between the U.S. and China regarding Venezuelan oil, highlighting China's strategic decision to halt purchases in response to U.S. attempts to impose new trading rules, which China views as a violation of sovereign agreements [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Responses - The U.S. introduced a new "export license" system requiring buyers to settle through designated accounts and accept a new price of $45 per barrel, nearly 50% higher than the original price [3]. - Trump's sudden shift in tone, inviting China to continue purchasing Venezuelan oil and suggesting price negotiations, indicates U.S. anxiety over unsold oil and rising inventory levels [5][7]. - The U.S. strategy of leveraging resource control to compel China back to negotiations has failed, as China is no longer reliant on a single oil source [7]. Group 2: China's Strategic Position - China's decision to suspend all related transactions is a calculated response to reject U.S. imposed rules, emphasizing that it will not engage in a framework that undermines its energy security [5][9]. - As of 2025, Venezuela's share in China's crude oil imports has decreased to 2.3%, with China diversifying its sources from countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq [9][11]. - The penetration of electric vehicles in China has surpassed 53%, leading to a decline in fuel vehicle sales and a shift in domestic oil demand [11]. Group 3: Implications for Global Energy Dynamics - The article suggests that the global energy landscape is shifting, with the true power now lying with those who accept the rules rather than those who control resources [17]. - China's ability to bypass the U.S. dollar system through alternative payment channels, such as the CIPS, demonstrates its strategic independence in energy trade [11][15]. - The situation illustrates that if major buyers like China withdraw, the new trading rules proposed by the U.S. become ineffective, leaving resources stranded [17].

| 703 | A | 10 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | œ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | . | V | œ | 1 | 1 | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ★★★ | 能源日报 2026年02月04日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 美伊谈判前景依然存在诸多不确定性。美军击落了一架接近林肯号航空母舰的伊朗无人机,而伊朗武装快艇也 在霍尔木兹海峡逼近一艘悬挂美国国旗的船只。伊朗方面提出将谈判地点更改为阿曼,并要求把议题范围收 窄，仅限于核问题的双边会谈。另一方面,泽连斯基指责俄罗斯在停火期间围积弹药,并于和平谈判前夕发动 袭击 ...

印度商业和工业部长皮尤什·戈亚尔2月4日说，鉴于全球形势变化，印度将通过能源来源多元化保障本 国能源安全。 美国总统特朗普2日在社交媒体发文称，根据当天与印度总理莫迪达成的一项贸易协议，印度将停止购 买俄罗斯石油，美国则将把对印度商品加征的所谓"对等关税"税率从25%降至18%。他还说，印度将显 著增加美国石油的采购量并可能从委内瑞拉购买石油。 莫迪同日确认美将下调对印关税，但未就印度停购俄石油一事表态。 戈亚尔4日就上述贸易协议首次向议会作出说明，并未提及印度将停止从任何特定国家购买石油。据路 透社报道，印度炼油厂也尚未接到停止购买俄罗斯石油的政府指令。 俄罗斯方面3日说，尚未听到印度关于停止采购俄石油的任何表态。俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫4日说，印 度宣布石油采购将多元化"并不新鲜"，印度一直从多国购买石油。 分析人士认为，美印基于现实利益达成贸易协议，但作为世界第三大石油消费国和进口国，印度很难完 全停止购买俄石油。（新华社） ...