1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, international oil prices have strongly risen, boosting the polyolefin market from the cost side. - Polyethylene domestic supply remains high, and losses in oil - based and naphtha - based production routes have intensified this week. - The polypropylene industry is affected by more planned maintenance in March, rising raw material prices, and slow resumption of PDH and other devices. - Downstream factory operating rates are at a seasonal low. - Although the current fundamentals are under pressure, there are still expectations for post - holiday restocking demand. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of cost support and the actual recovery of downstream operating rates [1]. Methanol Industry - The conflict in the Middle East has led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, restricting Iranian methanol exports and increasing geopolitical risk premiums. - Domestic methanol operating rates remain high, but imports are affected by the conflict, and the instability of devices has increased. The arrival volume in March will decline significantly. - Demand is weak, with poor olefin demand at ports and postponed start - up of new MTO devices. - Port inventories are at a medium - to - high historical level, with expectations of destocking. Pay attention to the actual progress of the conflict and the port destocking rhythm [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures fluctuated weakly on the 2nd, and spot prices remained stable overall. The supply is expected to increase, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation. Demand from the alumina industry is stable, and non - aluminum demand is improving. The overall situation of domestic caustic soda supply and demand is weak, and the short - term market may be in a volatile adjustment [7]. - PVC futures fluctuated higher on the 2nd, and spot prices were weakly volatile. The current supply - demand situation of PVC has not improved, and the price is affected by cost concerns. The short - term upward sentiment of the PVC market is expected to continue, but the increase is uncertain [7]. Urea Industry - Urea futures fluctuated down on the 2nd. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term, and inventory accumulation during the holiday has put pressure on prices. - Agricultural demand is gradually advancing, while industrial demand is slowly recovering. The price may be in a high - level stalemate in the short term. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1800 - 1900. Attention should be paid to downstream demand progress and inventory accumulation [8]. LPG Industry - LPG prices have generally risen. The refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory have increased. - The operating rate of upstream main refineries remains unchanged, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased slightly [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - Overseas main production areas are transitioning to reduced production and suspension of tapping, with a shrinking total supply and rising raw material prices. - Downstream tire enterprises are gradually resuming work, and demand is expected to be boosted. - Inventories in Qingdao are accumulating. Long positions established earlier can be held, and attention should be paid to changes in the Middle - East situation [13]. Crude Oil Industry - The conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in the risk premium of crude oil. - If the risk spreads or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, oil prices will continue to rise significantly. If the conflict eases, there is a risk of a large - scale return of the geopolitical premium. Geopolitical conflicts usually have a pulsed impact on oil prices, and long positions should be held with caution [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene devices are operating stably, and the profit of the downstream styrene industry has been significantly repaired. However, due to import pressure and high port inventories, the price of pure benzene is mainly driven by oil prices and downstream styrene. - The profit of the styrene industry is good, and the supply in March is expected to increase slightly. The demand is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand situation is expected to show a slight destocking. The price is expected to be boosted by oil prices in the short term [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For soda ash, the supply is in high - level oscillation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be considered around 1200. - For glass, the supply is at a low level, the demand is restricted, and the inventory is seasonally accumulating. The price may be short - sold around 1075, and attention should be paid to post - holiday macro - policies and downstream market conditions [18]. Polyester Industry - PX: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March, and the price is supported by cost and demand. The short - term trend is strong, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation. - PTA: The load has increased after the holiday, but the processing margin has been compressed. The short - term drive is limited, and the price follows the cost. - MEG: The supply will decline in March, and the demand from the polyester industry will recover seasonally. There is an expectation of slight destocking. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. - Bottle - chip: The supply will increase in March, the demand is expected to be weak, and the processing margin may decline [19]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP have generally risen, with price increases ranging from 5.85% to 7.06%. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories have increased, with the increase in enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP ranging from 15.79% to 89.14%. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rates have decreased slightly, and downstream weighted operating rates have decreased significantly. PP device operating rates have decreased slightly, while powder operating rates and downstream weighted operating rates have increased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of methanol have risen, with the increase in MA2605 closing price reaching 8.54%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories have all increased, with the increase in enterprise inventory reaching 57.30%. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises has decreased slightly, while the operating rate of overseas enterprises has increased significantly. The operating rate of downstream MTO devices remains unchanged, and the operating rates of some downstream industries such as formaldehyde have increased [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: Caustic soda spot prices are stable, and PVC futures prices have fluctuated higher. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda factory inventories have increased, and PVC social inventories have decreased slightly. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry has increased slightly, and the total operating rate of PVC has remained unchanged [7]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: Futures prices have fluctuated down, and most regional factory offers have been slightly adjusted. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory and port inventories have increased, and the number of production enterprise orders has decreased. - **Operating Rates**: The daily and weekly production of urea has increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises has increased slightly [8]. LPG Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of LPG have risen, with the increase in PG2604 reaching 6.09%. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory have increased. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main refineries remains unchanged, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased slightly [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Prices**: Spot prices of natural rubber have risen slightly, and the price of Thai standard mixed rubber has increased by 0.63%. - **Inventory**: Qingdao's bonded and general - trade inventories of natural rubber have continued to accumulate. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires have increased significantly [13]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices have risen significantly, with increases of 6.68% and 6.28% respectively. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts of crude oil and refined oil have changed significantly [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have risen, with the increase in styrene spot price reaching 5.6%. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has decreased slightly, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports has increased by 11.1%. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain have changed slightly [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Prices**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures have decreased slightly. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories have increased significantly. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the soda ash industry has increased slightly, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has increased [18]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials and downstream polyester products have generally risen. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory has increased by 2.0%. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester industries have all increased to varying degrees [19].

Core Insights - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is significantly impacting global energy markets, particularly affecting Asia, with potential oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel due to supply disruptions [2][3] Energy Market Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global oil trade, with approximately 13 million barrels per day passing through it, accounting for about 31% of all seaborne crude flows [2] - A prolonged closure could lead to a surge in oil prices, with Brent crude already rising nearly 10% since the onset of the conflict [2] Natural Gas Exports - About 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Gulf are at risk, particularly those from Qatar, which has halted production following drone attacks on its facilities [3] Regional Vulnerabilities - South Asia is particularly vulnerable, with countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India heavily reliant on LNG imports from Qatar and the UAE [5][8] - Pakistan and Bangladesh face immediate physical strain due to limited storage and procurement flexibility, with Bangladesh already experiencing a significant gas deficit [6][7] Specific Country Analysis - India has the largest exposure in the region, with over half of its LNG imports linked to the Gulf, leading to increased costs for both oil and LNG due to the closure [8] - China, while significantly exposed, has sufficient buffers through stockpiles and alternative supplies, but would need to compete for Atlantic cargoes if the situation persists [9][10] Strategic Responses - Saudi Arabia has increased crude loadings, and strategic petroleum reserves held by major consuming nations like China may provide temporary market cushioning [11]

港股晨报 2026 年 3 月 3 日 国投证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 今日重点 1. 国投证券国际视点 中东战火推升避险情绪，美股深 V 反转现 韧性 1. 国投证券国际视点：中东战火推升避险情绪，美股深 V 反转现韧性 昨日港股三大指数集体下跌。其中，恒生指数跌 2.14%，国企指数跌 1.78%， 恒生科技指数跌 2.89%。南向资金北水方面，港股通交易净流入 162.14 亿港 元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是南方恒生科技 3033.HK、 盈富基金 2800.HK、小米集团 1810.HK；净卖出最多的是阿里巴巴 9988.HK、中 芯国际 981.HK、山东墨龙 568.HK。 板块方面，避险与战略资源领跑赢，能源及国防板块受惠走高，诺斯洛普·格 鲁曼 NOC.US 大涨约 6%，洛克希德·马丁 LMT.US 升逾 3%，埃克森美孚 XOM.US 等能源巨头亦跟随油价上扬。同时，具备充裕现金流的科技巨头发挥避险属性， 英伟达 NVDA.US 与微软 MSFT.US 分别上涨约 3%及 1%。航空与邮轮股因担忧燃 料成本急升而领跌大市。 板块方面，航空板块显着下跌，中国南方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the historic collective surge of the "Big Three" oil companies in China, emphasizing the critical role of the oil industry in national energy security [2]. Industry Overview - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the attacks on Iran, have led to a spike in international oil prices, resulting in a significant rise in oil and gas equipment stocks [2]. - The collective surge of the "Big Three"—China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)—marks a historic first, reflecting the capital market's response to the evolving energy landscape [2]. Key Instruments and Equipment in the Oil Industry Sample Preparation and Separation Equipment - Microwave Digestion Instrument - Rotary Evaporator - Solid Phase Extraction Device (SPE) - Liquid-Liquid Extraction Instrument - Nitrogen Blowing Instrument - Gas Chromatograph (GC) with configurations including FID, TCD, and MS [3]. Chromatography Analysis Equipment - High-Performance Liquid Chromatograph (HPLC) with configurations including UV-Vis detector, fluorescence detector, and LC-MS [3]. - Gel Permeation Chromatograph (GPC) - Ion Chromatograph (IC) [3]. Spectroscopy and Physical Property Testing Equipment - Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer (FTIR) - Ultraviolet-Visible Spectrophotometer (UV-Vis) - Atomic Absorption Spectrometer (AAS) - Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (ICP-MS) - Differential Scanning Calorimeter (DSC) - Thermogravimetric Analyzer (TGA) [4]. Elemental and Industrial Analysis Equipment - Elemental Analyzer - Industrial Analyzer - Sulfur and Nitrogen Analyzer [6]. Environmental and Safety Monitoring Equipment - Total Organic Carbon Analyzer (TOC) - Gas Detector - Dust Concentration Detector - Flash Point Tester - Lubricating Oil Tester - Distillation Apparatus for Petroleum Products [7]. Laboratory General Equipment - Balance - Centrifuge - Ultrasonic Cleaner - Muffle Furnace - Purified Water Machine [7]. Data Processing and Software - Chromatography Workstation - Mass Spectrometry Analysis Software - Simulation Software [7].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年03月03日 (原油) 3月2日深夜，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队司令顾问表示霍尔木兹海峡已被关闭，伊方将打击所有试图从霍 尔木兹海峡通过的船只。继2025年6月伊以12日战争后上周末中东再燃战火,地区局势由此前对特 迅速升级为全面军事对抗。在伊朗采取的众多反击措施中，关于伊朗宣布禁止任何船只通过霍尔木 兹海峡这一消息传出后引起市场关于中东产油国原油供应中断的恐慌情绪。在美以与伊朗军事对抗 持续、霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航之前，地缘风险将对原油价格形成持续支撑。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属冲高回落，盘中波动较大。美伊战局激烈，特朗普表示如果有必要不排除向伊朗派遣美 国地面部队的可能性，伊朗方面称已为长期战争做好准备。短期避险情绪将持续摇摆，后续走势仍 需看战争是否向更大烈度扩张。数据方面美国公布2月1SM制造业PM152.4强于预期，市场等待本周 非农等重要数据发布。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜走低,尽管美欧2月制造业PMI在荣枯线上方,但伊朗军事冲突抬高能源价格增大经济增长 风险,且美元相对主要能源进口地区货币短线强势,拖累铜价。目前均线密集区继续尝试提供韧 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货专题报告 中东地缘风险升级 油价强势上涨 原油 2026 年 3 月 3 日 主要结论 受中东地缘风险升级的影响，本周一国内原油期货价格涨停报收。2 月 28 日，在美国和以色列袭击伊朗后，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡航道，多个油轮船 东、交易商已暂停经这一海峡运输原油、燃料及液化天然气。霍尔木兹海峡如果 长时间被关闭，全球原油供应缺口将极速放大，中国 70%以上原油依赖进口，短 期原油进口被动减少和推迟到港的风险加大，油价面临持续上涨的风险。 美国和伊朗谈判分歧巨大，美国的目标不仅仅是要伊朗弃核，更重要的是要 颠覆伊朗政权和接管伊朗政府。伊朗预计不会向美国屈服妥协，冲突可能会持续 较长时间，油价 3 月份可能持续上涨。 OPEC+已原则上达成协议，计划自 4 月起将石油日产量提高 20.6 万桶。此次 增产决定是在上周日 OPEC+会议前夕作出的，显示出产油国集团对当前全球能源 供需形势的评估。该增产规模相当于全球日均需求的约 0.2%，反映出 OPEC+在平 衡市场供应与维护油价稳定之间的谨慎态度。OPEC+的增产计划预计难以阻止近 期油价上涨。相较于霍尔木兹海峡通行受阻造 ...

March 2, 2026 10:37 AM GMT Morgan Stanley Research Global Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum First Thoughts on Middle East Geopolitical Tensions and What It Means For Markets Serena Tang – Global Head of Cross-Asset Strategy Research | Strategist Michael Wilson – Chief US Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer | Equity Strategist Andrew Watrous – G10 FX Market Strategist | Strategist MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Martijn Rats – Global Commodities Strategist and Head of European Energy Research | Equity An ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the global oil market, geopolitical risks, and the implications of AI on international relations and economic strategies. It also touches on the performance of the MSCI China Index compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Supply and Price Impact**: Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could reduce global daily oil supply by 2-3 million barrels, potentially pushing oil prices to around $80 per barrel, reflecting a risk premium of approximately $7 [1][4][7]. 2. **Inflation and GDP Effects**: A $10 increase in oil prices could raise global CPI by 0.3-0.7 percentage points and reduce global GDP by 0.1-0.2 percentage points, with significant inflationary pressures observed in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, while China and Japan are less affected [7][8]. 3. **Geopolitical Stability**: The current geopolitical tensions are seen as manageable, with no expectation of a global stagflation scenario due to various buffering mechanisms, including OPEC's production capacity and China's oil reserves [1][8]. 4. **AI as a Geopolitical Tool**: The U.S. aims to position AI as a new global power anchor outside the post-WWII dollar system, facing challenges from developing countries regarding data sovereignty and reliance on U.S. proprietary models [1][9][10]. 5. **China's Competitive Edge**: China's lower costs in power infrastructure and computing resources are noted, but the intertwining of token applications with data security raises concerns about oversimplifying the advantages of cheaper solutions [1][12]. 6. **MSCI China Index Performance**: The MSCI China Index has underperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by nearly 20 percentage points since early 2026, but the overall fundamentals of the Chinese market are improving when excluding the semiconductor super cycle factors [1][16][19]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Investment Strategy Adjustments**: The current environment is deemed unfavorable for passive index allocation, suggesting a shift towards individual stock, sector, and thematic investments, particularly favoring A-shares and tangible asset sectors [2][24]. 2. **Sector Performance Disparities**: Significant sectoral performance differences within the MSCI China Index are highlighted, with tangible asset sectors like energy and materials showing strong returns, while technology and consumer sectors lag due to high weight in the index [20][21][22]. 3. **Future Economic Outlook**: The 2026 economic growth target is projected at 5%, with a focus on technology and infrastructure investment, despite some provinces lowering their growth expectations [25][26]. 4. **Real Estate Policy Outlook**: The real estate sector is expected to receive supportive measures post-two sessions, with potential mortgage rate subsidies and property consumption incentives [27][28]. 5. **AI and Memory Market Dynamics**: The AI-driven demand for memory products is reshaping the market, with significant growth expected in AI-related SSDs and DRAM, while supply constraints are anticipated to persist [38][39][40]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussed topics and their implications for the oil market, geopolitical dynamics, and investment strategies in the context of the Chinese economy.

1 March 2026 | 4:04PM EST Economics Research Global Markets Comment: Market Thoughts Following the Strikes in Iran Dominic Wilson +1(212)902-5924 | dominic.wilson@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kamakshya Trivedi +44(20)7051-4005 | kamakshya.trivedi@gs.com Goldman Sachs International George Cole +44(20)7552-1214 | george.cole@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Michael Cahill +44(20)7552-8314 | michael.e.cahill@gs.com Goldman Sachs International William Marshall +1(212)357-0413 | william.c.marshall@gs.com Gol ...

金融期货早评 宏观：昨天定价，今天定性？ 【市场资讯】1）伊朗局势——①特朗普：不排除向伊朗派遣地面部队，根本不在乎民调。 真正的打击浪潮很快就要来了。②伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书拉里贾尼驳斥有关恢复美 伊谈判的消息，并称伊朗已为长期战争做好准备。③伊朗革命卫队：霍尔木兹海峡已关闭， 将打击任何试图通过的船只。④美国中央司令部表示，霍尔木兹海峡并未关闭，目前也没 有迹象表明伊朗在海峡布雷。⑤据悉阿联酋和卡塔尔敦促盟友劝说特朗普尽快结束伊朗战 争。⑥美国务卿与美防长均发出不会派遣地面部队的信号。2）特朗普 3 月访华能否成行？ 外交部：中美就元首互动保持着沟通。3）欧元区货币市场交易员几乎已排除欧洲央行在 2026 年降息的可能性。交易员们现在认为欧洲央行 12 月前降息可能性约为 8%，而 2 月 27 日预测约为 40%。 【南华观点】上周全球宏观市场正受四大重磅事件集中冲击，分别为美国最高法院对特朗 普关税政策的终局裁决、特朗普对抗性国情咨文演讲、中国央行下调远期售汇外汇风险准 备金率至 0，以及美以对伊朗军事打击引发的中东地缘热战。其中，美国两大事件标志着 其贸易保护主义已从"无边界单边主义"转向"有法 ...