Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The report presents some economic data, including the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment at 1.60%, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the current month at 3.70%, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in the current month at 7.20%, and the M2 growth rate at 8.80% [4]. Summary by Category Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 200.9 billion yuan in Week 33 (8/11 - 8/17) and 560.7 billion yuan in Week 34 (8/18 - 8/24). As of Week 33, the cumulative amount reached 9.8 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.6 trillion yuan [1][5]. General Deficit - The sum of national debt net financing and new local bond issuance was 264 billion yuan in Week 33 and 600.7 billion yuan in Week 34. As of Week 33, the cumulative general deficit was 8.0 trillion yuan, with a progress of 67.2%, exceeding the same period last year [1][5]. National Debt - National debt net financing was 214.6 billion yuan in Week 33 and 351.9 billion yuan in Week 34. The annual national debt net financing is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of Week 33, the cumulative amount was 4.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 68.4%, exceeding the average of the past five years [1][6]. Local Bond - Local bond net financing was -13.7 billion yuan in Week 33 and 208.8 billion yuan in Week 34. As of Week 33, the cumulative amount reached 5.2 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.8 trillion yuan [1][8]. New General Bond - New general bond issuance was 30.3 billion yuan in Week 33 and 9.5 billion yuan in Week 34. In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of Week 33, the cumulative issuance was 57.59 billion yuan, with a progress of 72.0%, exceeding the same period last year [1][8]. New Special Bond - New special bond issuance was 19 billion yuan in Week 33 and 239.3 billion yuan in Week 34. In 2025, the planned new special bond issuance is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of Week 33, the cumulative issuance was 2.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 64.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 936.2 billion yuan have been issued, with 181.1 billion yuan issued since August, accounting for 49% of new special bonds. Land reserve special bonds of 281.7 billion yuan have been issued [2][12]. Special Refinancing Bond - Special refinancing bond issuance was 1.2 billion yuan in Week 33 and 24.5 billion yuan in Week 34. As of Week 33, the cumulative issuance was 1.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 94% [2][24]. Urban Investment Bond - Urban investment bond net financing was -6.2 billion yuan in Week 33 and is expected to be -23.5 billion yuan in Week 34. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is 10.2 trillion yuan [2][29].

Group 1 - The capital market landscape in 2025 is shifting towards diversified asset allocation, moving away from single-asset strategies to include equities, fixed income, and physical assets [1] - Structural opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market are evident, with companies like (02195.HK/34lp9) achieving a 45% increase in the AI healthcare sector and (02195.HK/83nm1) benefiting from stable dividend yields above 5.2% due to renewable infrastructure policies [2] - The bond market is seeing green bonds represented by (02195.HK/46df2) with yields surpassing 6.5%, while convertible bonds like (02195.HK/29rg4) offer a balanced risk-reward profile [2] Group 2 - Gold is highlighted as a traditional safe-haven asset, showing unique value during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, with a combination of physical gold and (02195.HK/38ts6) gold ETFs meeting liquidity needs while avoiding transaction losses [2] - The investment strategy suggests dividing funds into core and satellite allocations, with core investments in (02195.HK/14kb9) bond funds and (02195.HK/77pd0) blue-chip stocks, while satellite investments include sector-specific targets like (02195.HK/22wf4) [3] - Risk management focuses on three dimensions: using (02195.HK/41qr9) cross-market ETFs to hedge currency risk, employing (02195.HK/58sj2) volatility index products for market risk management, and allocating (02195.HK/36xf8) gold options to address extreme events [3] Group 3 - The rise of smart investment advisory tools is changing allocation methods, with systems like (02195.HK/26vq7) dynamically adjusting stock-bond ratios based on economic indicators [4] - There is a caution against algorithmic homogenization risk, suggesting that maintaining a portion of actively managed products like (02195.HK/39zp0) can enhance portfolio differentiation [4]

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for a balanced asset allocation strategy among stocks, bonds, and gold in the context of the 2025 global capital market, which is characterized by significant differentiation and changing dynamics [1] Group 1: Stock Investment - Investors are advised to focus on Hong Kong stocks with core competitive advantages, particularly in digital infrastructure, smart city solutions, and electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Specific companies highlighted include those with a 37% year-on-year revenue growth in smart city solutions and strategic breakthroughs in electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Other notable sectors include biopharmaceutical innovation and metaverse application development, which have established differentiated competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing a divergence between government bonds and corporate credit bonds, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing around 3.8% and investment-grade corporate bond spreads narrowing to 150 basis points [1] - Green bonds issued by certain companies received oversubscription due to carbon neutrality certification, while convertible bonds are favored by hedge funds due to their conversion premium advantages [1] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for bond portfolio allocation, focusing on high-rated short-duration bonds and inflation-protected securities (TIPS) [1] Group 3: Gold as an Asset - Gold is undergoing a repositioning as a traditional safe-haven asset, with physical gold ETF holdings reaching record highs, although digital currencies are increasingly seen as alternatives [1] - The current price of London gold is around $1,950 per ounce, reflecting a 12% decline from its 2024 peak [1] - Investment strategies include indirect exposure through gold mining stocks or structured products linked to gold prices to capture rebound opportunities while managing volatility risks [1] Group 4: Investment Portfolio Construction - The Morningstar Q2 2025 report suggests a "433" allocation strategy: 40% in stocks, 30% in bonds, and 30% in alternative assets, including gold ETFs and commodity funds [1] - This allocation considers the growth potential of certain growth stocks while providing yield protection through high-yield bonds and hedging tail risks with precious metal derivatives [1] - As the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction nears its end, investors are encouraged to monitor interest-sensitive assets, credit spread indices, and volatility indicators for dynamic asset allocation adjustments [1]

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Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a new wave of investment enthusiasm, with significant gains in technology and renewable energy sectors, prompting investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies [1] Group 1: Stock Market Trends - The Hang Seng Tech Index has risen 23% year-to-date as of August 21, 2025, with smart driving concept stocks seeing monthly gains exceeding 40% [1] - The renewable materials sector, led by a company developing graphene battery technology, is benefiting from the global carbon neutrality process, with the technology now in mass production [1] - In the consumer electronics sector, a company has doubled its stock price in three months due to breakthroughs in holographic projection devices [1] - Medical AI companies are transforming traditional diagnostic models, maintaining a dynamic P/E ratio in the reasonable range of 35-50 times [1] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - High-quality corporate bonds are showing value as growth stocks experience increased volatility, with 3A rated Hong Kong Stock Exchange corporate bond yields rising to 4.2%, an increase of 80 basis points since the beginning of the year [2] - A five-year green bond issued by a specific company is particularly sought after by institutions due to its embedded carbon reduction clauses [2] - Caution is advised regarding cash flow pressures faced by high-yield bond issuers [2] Group 3: Gold Market Developments - Traditional gold ETF holdings have increased by 12%, while a blockchain gold certificate launched by a company has seen trading volumes exceed HKD 10 billion [3] - This product allows investors to hold digital certificates that correspond directly to physical gold stored in Swiss vaults [3] - In the context of significant fluctuations in the US dollar index, a company has developed gold volatility derivatives to provide new tools for risk hedging [3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Active stocks include a range of companies, with a professional institution recommending a "core + satellite" strategy: allocating 60% of funds to blue-chip stocks and interest rate bonds, 30% to high-growth sectors, and 10% for hedging systemic risks [4] - With the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift approaching, certain cross-border arbitrage products may emerge as dark horses in the fourth quarter [4]

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Financing Overview - Government debt net financing for week 33 (8/11-8/17) was 200.9 billion, and for week 34 (8/18-8/24) it was 560.7 billion, totaling 980 billion by week 33, exceeding last year's 460 billion[1] - The cumulative general deficit reached 8.0 trillion, with a progress rate of 67.2% as of week 33[5] - National debt net financing for week 33 was 214.6 billion, and for week 34 it was 351.9 billion, with a cumulative total of 4.6 trillion, achieving 68.4% of the annual target[6] Local Government Debt - Local government debt net financing for week 33 was -13.7 billion, while week 34 saw 208.8 billion, with a cumulative total of 5.2 trillion, surpassing last year's 2.8 trillion[8] - New general bonds issued amounted to 30.3 billion in week 33 and 9.5 billion in week 34, with a cumulative total of 575.9 billion, achieving 72.0% of the annual target[8] Special Bonds and Other Debt - New special bonds issued in week 33 were 19.0 billion, and in week 34, they surged to 239.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion, reaching 64.5% of the annual target[12] - Special refinancing bonds issued in week 33 were 1.2 billion, and in week 34, they increased to 24.5 billion, with a cumulative total of 1.9 trillion, achieving 94% of the issuance target[24] - City investment bonds saw net financing of -6.2 billion in week 33 and an estimated -23.5 billion in week 34, with a total balance of 10.2 trillion[29]