扬子晚报网12月16日讯（记者 范晓林 薄云峰 实习生 潘伊笑）据数据统计，截至12月10日，以股权登记 日计算，今年以来，3762家A股上市公司合计分红金额达2.46万亿元，超过去年全年，再创历史新高。 | 代码 | 简称 | 年内涨跌幅(%) | 年内机构调研家数 | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688525 | 佰维存储 | 76.78 | 348 | 电子 | | 002153 | 石基信息 | 45.13 | 228 | 计算机 | | 300083 | 创世纪 | 36.25 | 209 | 机械设备 | | 601677 | 明泰铝业 | 19.09 | 190 | 有色金属 | | 002531 | 天顺风能 | -13.65 | 168 | 电力设备 | | 002456 | 欧菲 光 | -13.36 | 112 | 电子 | | 605588 | 冠石科技 | 22.37 | da | 电子 | | 301018 | 申菱环境 | 43.44 | 96 | 机械设备 | | 002731 | 萃华珠宝 | 37.84 | 89 | 纺织服 ...

消息面上，政策暖风频吹，为消费板块的强势表现提供了坚实支撑。《求是》杂志最新发表的署名文章《扩大内需是战略之举》明确指出，扩大 内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之举。文章强调，要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长 的主动力和稳定锚。 【环球网消费综合报道】在"扩大内需"被提升至战略高度的背景下，大消费板块12月16日迎来爆发式行情。商业百货率先领涨，永辉超市、百大 集团（4连板）、欧亚集团、中央商场、广百股份、茂业商业等多股强势涨停，食品饮料、美容护理、旅游酒店等细分领域亦全面走强，市场做多 热情被彻底点燃。 国家发展改革委亦在同刊发表文章，提出要着力释放居民消费潜力，通过提振消费专项行动、消费品以旧换新、稳定和扩大就业、实施城乡居民 增收计划等多措并举，切实增强居民消费能力。此前召开的中央经济工作会议已将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为明年首要任务，彰显 了国家层面对提振消费的决心。 除了政策利好驱动，大消费板块自身的吸引力同样不容忽视。经过较长时间的调整，消费股估值已处于历史较低区间，存在显著的技术性反弹需 求。 在板块整体估值偏低和龙头业绩稳健的背景下，一 ...

Group 1: Banking Sector - The report anticipates that banks will maintain a certain demand for bond allocation in 2026, with an estimated bond allocation amount of 9.19 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.4% [1][8] - In 2025, the bond allocation scale of banks increased significantly, with a cumulative bond allocation of 8.2 trillion yuan from January to October, representing a 24% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [7] - The report highlights a structural differentiation in bond allocation, with state-owned banks and city commercial banks increasing their allocation due to relatively sufficient funds, while rural commercial banks showed weaker allocation due to higher deposit pressure [7] Group 2: Defense and Military Industry - The defense industry is expected to focus on domestic demand and military trade breakthroughs, with a projected defense budget of 1.78 trillion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.15% [12] - Key investment areas include the military aircraft engine supply chain, infrared technology for dual-use, and laser weapons with high application prospects in anti-drone fields, with specific companies recommended for investment [2][13] - The report notes that the military-civilian integration will provide long-term alpha for military enterprises, emphasizing the importance of transitioning from scale expansion to high-quality development [2][13] Group 3: Macroeconomic Overview - The report indicates that economic growth momentum remains weak, particularly in domestic demand, with industrial and service sector growth rates continuing to decline [3][15] - November data shows a significant drop in fixed asset investment, with a cumulative decline of 2.6% from January to November, and a 30.3% year-on-year decrease in real estate development investment [16] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to expand domestic demand and implement more proactive fiscal policies to address the supply-demand imbalance [17] Group 4: Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance sector is advised to focus on leading companies with strong configuration value, particularly in the white goods segment, with recommendations for Haier and Midea [4][24] - The report highlights the importance of innovation in smart terminals and suggests monitoring companies like Anker Innovation and Roborock for potential growth opportunities [4][24] - The impact of subsidy policies and market sentiment is noted, with expectations for a stable domestic market for home appliances if subsidy policies continue [19][20]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as the primary driver for economic growth in 2026, with a focus on implementing consumption-boosting initiatives and enhancing the domestic market [11][12][13] - The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 is projected to be 86.4%, with final consumption accounting for an average contribution rate of 56.2% [12][13] - The report highlights the shift in the retail industry towards quality and service-driven growth, as discussed in the National Retail Innovation Development Conference [15][16] Group 2 - The North Exchange's consumer services sector saw a weekly increase of 0.44%, with food and beverage sector rising by 3.32% [25][31] - As of December 13, 2025, there are 25 companies related to the consumer services sector in the North Exchange's queue, with an average revenue of 1.242 billion yuan and an average net profit of 140.35 million yuan for 2024 [47][48] - Notable companies in the consumer services sector include Yizhi Moyu, which has a market value of 3.555 billion yuan and a net profit of 62.34 million yuan for 2025 Q1-Q3 [24][35] Group 3 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 increased by 0.7% year-on-year, primarily driven by rising food prices [36][38] - The average wholesale price of pork is reported at 17.65 yuan per kilogram, while the average price of eggs is at 7.43 yuan per kilogram, reflecting market conditions [40][41] - The report indicates that the average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces is 3.02 yuan per kilogram, remaining stable compared to the previous week [46] Group 4 - The report outlines the significant sales performance during the "Double 11" shopping festival, with home appliances, digital devices, and clothing being the top three categories by sales volume [19][21] - The "Double 12" shopping event is set to further stimulate consumer spending, with various platforms launching promotional activities [18][22] - The report identifies 20 related stocks in the North Exchange for the "Double 12" event, covering categories such as home appliances, personal care, and food and beverages [23][24]

朋友们，我是帮主郑重。今天，一份关键数据出炉了——11月全国70城房价，环比、同比继续双降。这 意味着房价已经连续第8个月走低。我看到很多朋友的第一反应是："楼市是不是彻底没戏了？" 别急， 作为一个看了20年经济数据的老记者，我想说，这份冰冷的统计数据背后，既有我们必须正视的风险预 警，也藏着中长线投资者值得关注的重大转折信号。 这份数据最核心的看点，不是"跌了"，而是 "如何跌" 。简单说，就是分化加剧：一线城市的抗跌性明 显更强，环比微降，而二三线城市的压力更大。同时，新房价格的下行压力普遍大于二手房。这告诉我 们，当前市场的核心问题，是信心与预期的普遍偏弱，大家不是在挑好房子，而是在犹豫"要不要买房 子"。 那么，为什么在这个时候，我们反而要冷静下来，甚至看到一些积极信号呢？因为政策的方向已经发生 了根本性转变。大家回想一下，过去一两年的政策重心是什么？是"去杠杆、防风险"。而现在的政策重 心，已经非常清晰地转向了 "防风险、稳市场、促转型"。从金融支持房企合理融资的"三个不低于"， 到重点城市的优化限购，再到轰轰烈烈的"保交楼"行动，目标非常明确：就是要把市场从"自由落体"的 状态，拖入一个"软着陆 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5][11] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the value of leading companies in the home appliance sector, highlighting the importance of continuous innovation in smart terminals [1] - The central economic work conference has set the tone for 2026 economic work, focusing on domestic demand and optimizing policies for large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement [1] - The report suggests that if subsidy policies continue into next year, it will help stabilize the domestic home appliance market and ensure the performance stability of leading companies [1] Summary by Sections White Goods - Online sales data for November shows significant declines: refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machines saw sales drop by 23.17%, 26.13%, and 6.17% respectively, with volumes down by 28.31%, 26.24%, and 13.65% [2] - Offline sales experienced even steeper declines, with refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machines down by 49.18%, 51.76%, and 40.4% in sales [2] - The report indicates that the pessimistic sales expectations are already reflected in the market, and the industry is moving past the peak of base pressure [2] - A coalition of major air conditioning companies has initiated a self-regulation agreement to replace copper with aluminum, which may help reduce costs and improve product quality [2] - Despite current weak demand, the report anticipates a gradual reduction in domestic sales pressure due to high base effects and subsidy tapering [2] Black Goods - November data shows a decline in online sales for televisions, with sales down by 27.01% and volumes down by 37.52% [3] - The report notes that the trend of structural upgrades in black goods continues, with MiniLED technology driving up average prices and margins [3] - The upcoming World Cup is expected to catalyze sales, as leading companies focus on high-end channels [3] Consumer Technology - The report highlights the impact of subsidy reductions and high base effects on the market for cleaning appliances, with a notable decline in sales for robotic vacuum cleaners [4] - The report suggests that the industry is experiencing a concentration of domestic brands, driven by AI innovations and cost reductions in the supply chain [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on white goods, particularly Haier and Midea, due to their strong market positions and benefits from ongoing transformations [8] - It also suggests selecting consumer technology stocks, including Anker Innovations and Roborock, as well as opportunities in the 3D printing industry [8] - For overseas expansion, TCL Electronics is highlighted as a company with good growth potential [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumer sector, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption recovery [1]. Core Insights - The consumer sector experienced a decline across various segments, with notable drops in retail, social services, food and beverage, beauty care, home appliances, and textiles [3]. - High-end liquor, particularly Moutai, is showing signs of bottoming out despite a significant price drop, indicating potential recovery as demand stabilizes [3]. - The central economic work conference highlighted the commitment to boosting domestic consumption, with policies aimed at increasing residents' income and optimizing supply of quality goods and services [3]. - The report suggests focusing on service consumption sectors, which have room for growth compared to developed countries [3]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a broad decline, with specific weekly performance metrics indicating negative trends across various sub-sectors [3][5]. - Notable stock performances included significant gains for certain companies, while others faced substantial losses [3][13][14]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Recent regulatory approvals and policy initiatives are expected to impact various sectors, including tourism and electric vehicles, with a focus on enhancing consumer experiences and market growth [15][16][19]. - Companies like Tim Hortons and others reported positive financial results, indicating resilience in the consumer market despite broader sector challenges [19][20].

在当前的震荡市中，很多投资者面临着两难的选择：一边是看着科技成长的轮动眼馋却不敢追高，另一边是想买红利防守却又 担心传统红利指数行业过于集中、缺乏成长性。有没有一种策略，既能像红利指数一样提供"真金白银"的安全垫，又能像宽基 指数一样均衡布局各行各业的龙头公司？今天我们就来聊聊这个自带"优中选优"基因的指数——中证A500红利低波指数。 图：中证A500红利低波指数行业分布 数据来自Wind, 截止至2025/12/10 此外，该指数还引入了一个非常关键的"避雷"机制——ROE（净资产收益率）稳定性筛选。有些公司股息率高，是因为经营恶 化导致股价暴跌，这被称为"价值陷阱"。为了规避这一点，A500红利低波剔除了过去12个季度ROE波动较大的公司。这一招非 常高明，确保了入选的公司不仅分红大方，而且盈利能力稳定，基本面扎实。 首先，我们要理解这个指数的"出身"不凡。中证A500红利低波指数的选股池并非全市场，而是大名鼎鼎的中证A500指数。我 们知道，中证A500是从A股5000多只股票中筛选出的500只细分行业龙头，本身就是经过层层筛选的优质资产。而A500红利低 波指数，则是在这500只龙头的每一个细分领域 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations with the banking sector showing a low opening but recovering, while domestic demand-related sectors led the gains. As of 14:00, the Guozheng Value 100 Index rose by 0.4%, accumulating nearly 7% since October, outperforming similar value style indices. The value ETF (159263) saw a net subscription of 87 million units today, indicating high investor interest [1] - Three government departments jointly issued 11 policy measures to boost consumption, reinforcing the focus on expanding domestic circulation. Market views suggest that the expectations and pricing for domestic and external demand products differ significantly from last year, and if domestic demand-related products exceed expectations, there could be substantial valuation elasticity [1] - The Guozheng Value 100 Index focuses on deep value, utilizing a screening system based on "high dividends + high free cash flow + low PE" to select core value stocks in the market. The top three industries in the index are home appliances, banking, and automobiles, collectively accounting for over 45%. Since its launch in 2012, the index has achieved an annualized return of over 12%. The value ETF (159263) is currently the only ETF tracking this index, facilitating investors in accessing undervalued quality assets in the market [1]

交银国际研究 行业剖析 2025 年 12 月 2 日 消费行业 2026 年展望：新常态下的消费新动能 2025 年消费小幅回暖，2026 年有望延续温和增长：2025 年以来，中国内 地消费市场延续温和复苏态势，1-10 月社会消费品零售总额累计同比增长 4.3%，显示整体需求处于恢复通道。然而，消费者信心指数虽逐季回升但 仍徘徊在荣枯线下，储蓄意愿维持高位、CPI 低位运行，均反映出消费者 偏谨慎的心态。因此我们看到，性价比趋势下多数细分行业仍面临需求偏 软与竞争加剧的双重压力；但另一方面，消费者更加重视情绪价值，同时 "以旧换新"等政策有效带动家电等品类，相关子行业成为年内消费主 线。展望2026年，消费有望延续温和增长的新常态，其核心特征是总体需 求增速偏缓，但消费理性化与需求层级的上移不断推动结构性分化，进而 成为细分市场的重要增长动力。市场将逐步构建新平衡，以挖掘消费者需 求为核心，更加重视经营效率提升；企业需精准洞察消费趋势，通过产 品、渠道、技术创新与供应链优化，把握新常态下的结构性机会。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可 ...