Group 1 - The UK retail sector continues to experience a decline for the 10th consecutive month, with July's retail sales indicator at -34, an improvement from June's -46, indicating persistent weak demand [1] - Rising prices driven by increased labor costs and economic uncertainty are pressuring consumer demand, leading to a decrease in sales since October 2024 [1] - The decision by the Chancellor to raise social security contributions for businesses and increase the minimum wage has contributed to rising prices [1] Group 2 - The weak demand is reflected across the distribution industry, with declines also reported in wholesale and automotive sales [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas: The US and the EU reached an agreement, with the US imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, half of the previously threatened rate, avoiding an escalation of the trade war. The EU promised to invest about $600 billion in the US and significantly increase purchases of US energy and military products. Sino-US high-level meetings will be held in Stockholm on Monday to extend the August 12 tariff "ceasefire" agreement by 90 days. With the tariff paths of many countries becoming clearer, market risk appetite has slightly increased [2]. - Domestic: The current market is in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality". The positive sentiment brought by supply - side optimization policies is still evolving. A - shares once broke through the 3600 - point mark, and trading volume and margin trading balances increased. In June, the year - on - year decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed to - 4.3%, mainly driven by the automotive industry. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment, policy outcomes, and tariff negotiations [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - US 7 - month Manufacturing and Services PMI Differentiation: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI was 49.5, weaker than expected and below the boom - bust line. The services PMI reached a new high this year at 55.2. Tariffs and high prices were reported to suppress demand [5]. - ECB's July Decision: On July 24, the ECB announced a pause in interest rate cuts after eight consecutive cuts, maintaining the main interest rate at 2.00%. The market's expectation of a September rate cut dropped below 30% [7]. Asset Performance - Equity: Most equity indices showed positive performance. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.33% last week, and the Hang Seng Index rose 5.47% [9]. - Bond: Yields of domestic and overseas bonds showed different trends. For example, the 1 - year domestic treasury bond yield rose 3.38 BP last week, while the 5 - year US treasury bond yield fell 1.00 BP [12]. - Commodity: The performance of commodities was mixed. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose 2.73% last week, while WTI crude oil fell 1.48% [14]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index fell 0.80% last week, and the euro - to - RMB exchange rate rose 0.73% [16]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: High - frequency data such as the congestion index, subway passenger volume, and real - estate transaction volume are presented through charts [18]. - Overseas: Data on red - book retail sales, unemployment claims, and US treasury bond spreads are shown [22]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data and events are scheduled this week, including US GDP, employment data, and euro - zone economic sentiment indices [31].

Group 1 - The G20 Development Ministers' Meeting is held in Mpumalanga, South Africa, focusing on enhancing social protection and combating illicit financial flows [1] - President Trump announces a new trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US, while key areas like steel, aluminum, chips, and spirits remain unresolved [2] - The European Central Bank's council member states there is little reason to further lower interest rates unless the economy faces significant shocks [2] Group 2 - The Russian Central Bank lowers its benchmark interest rate from 20% to 18%, maintaining a tight monetary policy until inflation returns to target levels by 2026 [3] - US durable goods orders fell by 9.3% in June, the largest decline since April 2020, with core durable goods orders unexpectedly dropping by 0.7% [3] - The US stock market sees record margin account borrowing exceeding $1 trillion for the first time [3] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rises by 0.47% to 44,901.92 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reaching new historical highs [4] - COMEX gold futures decline by 1.04% to $3,338.50 per ounce, while silver futures drop by 2.29% to $38.33 per ounce [4] Group 4 - US oil futures decrease by 1.45% to $65.07 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fall by 1.11% to $67.60 per barrel [5] - The 2-year US Treasury yield rises by 0.91 basis points, while the 10-year yield decreases by 0.99 basis points to 4.388% [5] Group 5 - The US dollar index increases by 0.19% to 97.67, with various currency pairs showing mixed performance against the dollar [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, confirmed that the deadline for imposing tariffs on trade partners is set for August 1, with no extensions or grace periods [2] Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The tariffs will officially take effect on August 1, and customs will begin collecting them [2] - A few countries have reached agreements with the Trump administration, resulting in tariff levels higher than the new 10% baseline but lower than the threatened higher rates [2] Group 2: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, is scheduled to meet with President Trump to negotiate a trade agreement before the August 1 deadline, or face tariffs up to 30% on EU exports to the U.S. [6][7] - The outcome of the negotiations largely depends on Trump's decisions, as he has previously altered terms at the last minute [7] - The EU is proposing a 15% tariff cap on most trade with the U.S., with certain exemptions for specific products [7][8] Group 3: Business Delegation to China - A high-level U.S. business delegation is set to visit China, organized by the U.S.-China Business Council, to potentially restart commercial negotiations [4][5] - The delegation will include executives from Boeing and the U.S.-China Business Council, indicating a significant engagement in trade discussions [3][4]

Core Points - The EU faces a "collective action problem," which hinders trade negotiations with the US [1][6] - The US-EU trade talks are in the final stages, with leaders set to meet for crucial discussions [1][3] - A potential framework trade agreement is estimated to have a 50% chance of being reached, with the EU eager to finalize it [1][3] Group 1: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The US and EU are engaged in "intensive negotiations" on technical and political levels, aiming for a balanced outcome that provides stability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic [3] - The potential agreement may include a 15% general tariff on EU goods entering the US, similar to recent agreements with Japan [3][4] - Trump's administration maintains a firm stance on a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, indicating limited flexibility in this area [3][4] Group 2: Differences Between US-EU and US-Japan Agreements - The economic relationship between the US and EU is characterized by lower complementarity and higher competition compared to the US-Japan relationship [4] - Japan's political and military dependency on the US contrasts with the EU's higher degree of autonomy, particularly for France and Germany [4] - The EU's current capital shortage complicates its ability to negotiate large-scale direct investments as Japan did [4] Group 3: Challenges in Specific Sectors - The EU's stringent food standards make negotiations in agricultural imports more challenging compared to Japan's concessions on agricultural products [5] - The EU may allow limited imports of genetically modified agricultural products, but this is expected to only address a fraction of the trade volume [5] - The aerospace sector could be a potential breakthrough area, although Airbus's strong position in Europe complicates US Boeing's procurement efforts [5] Group 4: Political Considerations and Internal EU Dynamics - The EU's collective decision-making process complicates negotiations, as the European Commission must represent all member states [6] - Recent meetings between German and French leaders indicate a shift towards a unified stance on trade negotiations with the US [7] - Germany's reevaluation of its economic model in light of geopolitical tensions may lead to a more assertive position in trade discussions [7]

Group 1 - The European Union has approved a significant retaliatory tariff decision against the United States, amounting to €93 billion, targeting key economic sectors such as Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and agricultural products [1] - The tariff measures specifically focus on symbolic American products, including bourbon whiskey and soybeans, which are closely tied to the voter base of former President Trump [1] - The decision comes in response to the U.S. imposing tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products starting in 2025, which has severely impacted the European automotive and aerospace industries, particularly in Germany and France [1] Group 2 - Ursula von der Leyen's recent visit to China played a crucial role in the EU's decision-making process, emphasizing the need to rebalance trade relations between China and the EU [3] - During the visit, significant agreements were reached on climate change, energy transition, and green technology, indicating a potential for enhanced cooperation despite existing economic disagreements [3] - China's response to the EU's concerns about "overcapacity" and "industrial subsidies" highlighted its stance against perceived protectionist measures, warning that cooperation could stagnate if the EU continues to apply double standards [5]

Group 1 - Global stock markets continue to rise, driven by the optimism surrounding the US-Japan trade agreement, which has renewed investor confidence in potential trade deals with more countries [1] - Asian stock markets rose by 1%, supporting global stock indices to reach new highs, with Japan's Topix index hitting a record closing high [1][3] - The US is reportedly close to reaching an agreement with the EU to impose a 15% tariff on most products, which has positively impacted European stock indices [1] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.6%, while the Topix index rose by 1.7%, and the South Korean Composite Index gained 0.2% [3] - The Thai SET index saw its losses widen to 1% amid geopolitical tensions [3] Group 3 - The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.1%, while the Japanese yen strengthened by over 0.1% [4][13] - The Thai baht fell by over 0.4%, retreating from its high since 2022 [4] Group 4 - US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield increasing by approximately 1 basis point [5] - Japanese 40-year government bond yields fell by 5.5 basis points to 3.4% [6] Group 5 - Crude oil prices increased by over 1%, with US oil surpassing $66 and Brent oil exceeding $69.40 [7][18] - Spot gold prices fell by over 0.3%, while silver dropped by approximately 0.4% [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights that in the first half of 2025, China's CPI averaged -0.1% year-on-year, and PPI averaged -2.8%, indicating a downward trend compared to the second half of 2024 [3][19] - The report emphasizes that while China is not in a "deflation" situation, the low interest rate and low price environment necessitates analyzing how other economies have responded to deflationary pressures [19][4] - The report outlines that deflation is characterized by a continuous decline in money supply and prices, leading to economic recession, and is self-reinforcing through a "debt-deflation" cycle [20][21] Group 2 - The report discusses Japan's response to deflation from 1999 to 2003, where it implemented large-scale fiscal expansion and introduced a 2% inflation target alongside quantitative easing [26][29] - The report also details the U.S. response during the 2008 financial crisis, which included aggressive monetary policy easing and fiscal measures such as tax rebates and support for struggling companies [47][57] - The report predicts that China's inflation may see a mild recovery in the second half of 2025, while PPI is expected to remain low but with a narrowing decline [4][8] Group 3 - The report analyzes the structure of CPI, noting that high-weight categories such as food and housing are experiencing price declines, which significantly suppresses overall CPI [5][80] - It highlights that the PPI structure shows a significant impact from production materials, which account for approximately 75.34% of PPI, with energy and raw materials experiencing substantial price drops [4][85] - The report indicates that despite policies aimed at stimulating consumption, the transmission of these policies to price increases has been limited due to structural issues in the economy [74][84]

Group 1 - The recent trade agreements between the US and Japan, as well as the Philippines and Indonesia, outline new tariff structures, with Japan facing a 15% tariff on imports, particularly automobiles, which are a significant part of the US-Japan trade deficit [1][2] - The agreements indicate a shift towards a new normal in tariff levels, with 10% becoming the new baseline for zero tariffs, and the potential for other countries to adopt similar rates [1][3] - The agreements have led to a positive reaction in Asian stock markets, with significant gains observed, particularly in Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which rose by 3.2% [2] Group 2 - Despite the agreements providing some relief, key issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding potential tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are critical for economies like Taiwan and India [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has been more detrimental to investment than the tariffs themselves, with the ASEAN manufacturing sector showing signs of significant weakness, including a drop in new orders and increased layoffs [3] - The anticipated increase in tariffs may lead to inflationary pressures in the US economy, with Goldman Sachs economists predicting a rise in the baseline tariff rate from 10% to 15% [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report presents the price trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 23, 2025. Different commodities are expected to have different trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements, influenced by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic spot prices are firm, providing support for the price, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10][12]. - **Zinc**: Expected to have small - scale sideways movements, with a trend strength of 0 [2][13][14]. - **Lead**: There are still expected supply - demand contradictions, and the price has support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][19][22]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to move sideways within a range, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina is expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23][25]. - **Nickel**: Macro - economic sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is mainly influenced by macro - economic sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The commodity sentiment is positive, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][31][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of reaching the daily limit; the trend strength is 2. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are getting stronger, and the price is unlikely to fall, with a trend strength of 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - economic expectations, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro - economic sentiment, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][41][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Driven by the macro - economic market, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][46][48]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase has been implemented, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Coking coal is restricted by supply - policy expectations, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is expected to stabilize in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][54][57]. Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Palm Oil**: Boosted by macro - economic factors, but caution should be exercised regarding sentiment reversal. - **Soybean Oil**: Follows the trend of the oilseed sector but is relatively weak among varieties. - **Soybean Meal**: Market sentiment is strong, and the price is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - **Soybean No. 1**: Technically, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - **Corn**: Expected to move sideways. - **Sugar**: Expected to have narrow - range consolidation. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. - **Egg**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling hens decreases. - **Live Pig**: Macro - economic sentiment is strong, waiting for verification at the end of the month. - **Peanut**: Expected to move sideways [4]. Others - **Log**: Expected to have repeated sideways movements [2][58].