Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "LPG: Crude Oil Fluctuates Widely, Domestic Support Weakens" and is dated May 22, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: LPG Futures Data - PG2506 closed at 4,236 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.26%, and at 4,210 in the night session with a decline of -0.61%. PG2507 closed at 4,182 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.63%, and at 4,151 in the night session with a decline of -0.74% [3] - PG2506 had a trading volume of 40,710 yesterday, a decrease of 500 from the previous day, and an open interest of 31,963, a decrease of 7065. PG2507 had a trading volume of 34,136, an increase of 2888, and an open interest of 61,795, an increase of 2354 [3] - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 614 yesterday, compared with 675 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 06 contract was 744 yesterday, compared with 775 the previous day [3] Group 3: Industry Chain Important Price Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 58.0%, down from 59.6% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 56.1%, down from 61.4% last week. The alkylation operating rate remained unchanged at 41.0% [3] Group 4: LPG Trend Intensity - The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9] Group 5: Market Information - PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies' PDH devices are under maintenance or have scheduled maintenance, including Puyang Yuandong Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Some maintenance start times date back to 2023, and many end times are still undetermined [10] Group 6: Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations - On May 20, 2025, the expected Saudi CP for propane in June was 585 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the expected butane price was 565 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton. The expected Saudi CP for propane in July was 559 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton; the expected butane price was 539 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton [11] Group 7: Market Information - Refinery Maintenance Plans - Many refineries across the country are undergoing or have planned maintenance, including Zhenghua Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye, etc., with varying normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, and end times [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cost of LPG fluctuates widely, and the civil gas is under short - term pressure [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For PG2506, the yesterday's closing price was 4,274 with a daily increase of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 4,264 with a decrease of 0.23%. The yesterday's trading volume was 75,858, a decrease of 3,582 from the previous day, and the yesterday's open interest was 50,644, a decrease of 5,757 from the previous day. For PG2507, the yesterday's closing price was 4,193 with a daily increase of 0.29%, and the night - session closing price was 4,206 with an increase of 0.31%. The yesterday's trading volume was 35,048, an increase of 2,749 from the previous day, and the yesterday's open interest was 52,584, a decrease of 2,970 from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 676 yesterday, compared with 681 the day before. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 06 contract was 746 yesterday, compared with 751 the day before [1] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: This week, the PDH operating rate was 58.0%, down from 59.6% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 56.1%, down from 61.4% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 39.9%, down from 42.2% last week [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7] 3. Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On May 15, 2025, the expected price of propane in the June Saudi CP was 583 US dollars/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 563 US dollars/ton, also remaining stable. The expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 559 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 539 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day [9] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies' PDH devices are under maintenance or have planned maintenance, such as Puyang Far East Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different start - times and end - times (some are still undetermined) [8] - **Domestic Refinery Maintenance Plans**: Many refineries have maintenance plans, including Zhenghua Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye, etc., with various normal production volumes, loss volumes, start - times, and end - times [10]

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - The report is titled "LPG: Short - term bearish factors realized, focus on lower support" and was released on May 16, 2025 [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - PG2506 had a yesterday's closing price of 4,269 with a - 2.00% daily increase, and a night - session closing price of 4,278 with a 0.21% night - session increase. PG2507 had a yesterday's closing price of 4,181 with a - 1.99% daily increase, and a night - session closing price of 4,190 with a 0.22% night - session increase [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - PG2506 had a yesterday's trading volume of 79,440, a decrease of 21,002 from the previous day, and an open interest of 56,401, an increase of 1,503 from the previous day. PG2507 had a yesterday's trading volume of 32,299, a decrease of 590 from the previous day, and an open interest of 55,554, an increase of 7,618 from the previous day [1] Price Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 711 yesterday (compared to 694 the day before), and the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 06 contract was 771 yesterday (compared to 724 the day before) [1] Industry Chain Key Price Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 58.0% (compared to 59.6% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 56.1% (compared to 61.4% last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 39.9% (compared to 42.2% last week) [1] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The LPG trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [7] Group 4: Market Information Saudi CP Expectations - On May 14, 2025, the expected price of propane in the June Saudi CP was 583 dollars/ton, a 6 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 563 dollars/ton, a 6 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day. The expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 560 dollars/ton, a 7 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 540 dollars/ton, a 7 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day [9] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies including Puyang Far East Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans with various start and end times, some of which are still undetermined [8] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many refineries such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye, etc., have device maintenance plans with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, and end times, some of which are still undetermined [10]

热点报告——液化石油气 中美关税阶段性缓和，内外盘定价逻辑分化 | | [Table液_R化an石k]油气：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 14 | 日 [Table_Analyser] | | 走势评级： 报告日期： | | | | | | | [Table_Summary] ★中美关税缓和超预期，FEI/CP 价差显著收窄 关税缓和对国际纸货价格产生了明显的影响，中国进口美国货 可能性的提升支撑 6 月 FEI 纸货价格大幅上涨，同时此前 CP 价 格来自中国寻求美国货替代来源的支撑预期部分消退下有所回 落，FEI-CP 价差走强，但并未走强至对等关税加征前水平，6 月合约两者价差走强至-20 美元/吨后上行乏力。 能 源 结合当前的 LPG 商品基本面以及宏观环境仍存在不确定性的整 体情景，我们预计短期 FEI 向上和 CP 向下的进一步驱动相对有 限，CP 预计仍将较 FEI 表现偏强。 与 碳 ★ C4 需求疲弱叠加仓单压制下，关税缓和对内盘价格影响有限 中 和 相对于 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao029552@gtjas.com 期货从业资格号：F03128004 日期：2025年5月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 供应 03 需求 04 期货纸货 月差结构 现货基差 美国 中东 国内 化工需求 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点：暂时震荡 ◆ 我们的逻辑：5月3日-5月9日，国际原油下行，国内需求走弱，液化气市场承压。截至5月9日，AFEI丙烷指数MA5下跌 2.5%至501.15美元/吨；美湾MB现货MA5同步跌至371美元/吨；华南丙烷冷冻货到岸价MA5为638美元/吨，较上期 均价跌16.8美元/吨，跌幅为2.56%。供 ...

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on LPG, suggesting that the support from crude oil is weakening, and investors should pay attention to the calendar spread arbitrage. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Prices**: On May 6, 2025, the closing price of PG2506 was 4,400 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the closing price of PG2507 was 4,306 with a daily increase of 0.37%. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of PG2506 was 73,226, an increase of 21,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 60,054, a decrease of 3,341. The trading volume of PG2507 was 20,999, an increase of 11,489, and the open interest was 32,709, an increase of 4,790. [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 800 (previous day: 801), and the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 944 (previous day: 851). [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: This week, the PDH operating rate was 60.1% (last week: 63.2%), the MTBE operating rate was 65.0% (previous: 67.2%), and the alkylation operating rate was 45.2% (previous: 47.8%). [2] **Trend Intensity** The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [9] **Market Information** - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On April 29, 2025, the expected price of propane in the June Saudi CP was 572 USD/ton, up 13 USD/ton from the previous trading day, and the expected price of butane was 552 USD/ton, up 18 USD/ton. The expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 546 USD/ton, and the expected price of butane was 526 USD/ton. [10] - **Domestic PDH Plant Maintenance Plans**: Multiple PDH plants have ongoing or planned maintenance, including those of Puyang Yuandong Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with capacities ranging from 15 to 900,000 tons per year and various start and end times. [10] - **Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plans**: Many LPG plants and related facilities are under maintenance, such as Zhenghua Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye, etc., with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, and maintenance periods. [11]

商 品 研 2025 年 4 月 30 日 LPG：原油大幅下跌，结构继续走强 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao029552@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | 研 | | --- | | 究 | | 所 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2506 | 4,399 | -0.23% | 4,393 | -0.14% | | 期 货 | PG2507 | 4,290 | -0.46% | 4,288 | -0.05% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2506 | 52,103 | -9988 | 63,395 | -3795 | | | PG2507 | 9,510 | 1047 | 27,919 | 2030 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 广州国产气对06合约价差 | 751 | | 741 | | | | 广州进口气对07合约价差 ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 商 品 研 究 LPG：民用气走弱 PG 重心下调 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao029552@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | 研 | | --- | | 究 | | 所 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2506 | 4,433 | -0.67% | 4,402 | -0.70% | | 期 货 | PG2507 | 4,333 | -0.62% | 4,304 | -0.67% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2506 | 52,705 | -20655 | 65,851 | 350 | | | PG2507 | 7,771 | -3112 | 23,799 | 531 | | 价 差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 广州国产气对06合约价差 | 747 | | 737 | | | | 广州进口气对07合约价 ...