Group 1 - Copper stocks have experienced significant declines, with Jiangxi Copper Co. down 6.33% to HKD 32.84, Minmetals Resources down 4.99% to HKD 6.85, China Nonferrous Mining down 3.93% to HKD 13.95, and Luoyang Molybdenum down 2.41% to HKD 16.63 [1] - As of October 28, LME copper prices have dropped by 1%, currently at USD 10,918.5 per ton [1] - Everbright Futures suggests that geopolitical easing between Russia and Ukraine, progress in China-US trade negotiations, and the introduction of domestic 14th Five-Year Plan proposals indicate a positive start for the global economy next year [1] Group 2 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a potential shortage of refined copper by 2026 due to ongoing impacts from the Indonesian mining incident, despite a tight balance in copper supply and demand [1] - There is a divergence in market expectations, as domestic copper demand growth in the first three quarters has been substantial, leading to potential pressure on demand in the fourth quarter, which may not be as significant as anticipated [1] - Jiangxi Copper Co. is set to hold a board meeting today to consider and approve the announcement regarding its third-quarter performance for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The basis shows a discount to futures, and the inventory situation is complex. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, but the main position has turned from long to short. Overall, with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances, the copper price is expected to remain strong [2]. - There are both global policy easing and trade - war escalation factors affecting the copper market [3]. - In 2024, the copper market will have a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamental analysis of copper shows a neutral situation as supply has disturbances, and the manufacturing PMI has improved [2]. - The basis is - 180, indicating a neutral situation with the spot price at 88190 and a discount to futures [2]. - On October 27, copper inventory decreased by 375 to 135975 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5448 tons to 104792 tons compared to last week, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upward, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The main net position is short after changing from long, indicating a bearish sign [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The factors affecting the copper market include global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Inventory - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus in the copper market, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [22].

Group 1: Macro Insights - In September, industrial enterprise profits continued to expand year-on-year, primarily driven by low base effects, with characteristics of rising volume and price, improved profit margins, and proactive inventory replenishment [2] - The profit growth in raw materials and equipment manufacturing sectors has accelerated, with profit distribution increasingly favoring midstream and upstream industries [2] - Looking ahead, profits are expected to maintain high growth rates in October and November due to low base support, but weak terminal demand and diminishing effects of "anti-involution" may temper the recovery process [2] Group 2: Fund Market Insights - Domestic equity market indices rose, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, while gold prices experienced a pullback [3] - TMT-themed funds outperformed again, while there was significant net outflow from domestic stock ETFs, particularly from large-cap and TMT-themed ETFs [3] - Notably, there was significant inflow into commodity ETFs, particularly gold ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The automotive industry is undergoing rapid restructuring due to technological changes, particularly in intelligent driving and humanoid robotics, aligning with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and economic growth [4] - Investment opportunities are recommended in the robot and intelligent driving themes, particularly focusing on strong model cycles in the second half of 2025 [4] Group 4: Steel Industry - Steel futures profits have dropped to their lowest levels since 2015, but there is potential for recovery to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [5] - The steel sector's price fluctuations should be monitored closely as they pose risks to profitability [5] Group 5: Building Materials - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to accelerate following the introduction of the "strong aerospace nation" initiative, with Shanghai's action plan promoting high-quality development in the construction industry [6] - Recommendations include focusing on new materials and construction-related companies, such as China Jushi and Guoen Co., which are positioned in high-growth segments [6] Group 6: Company-Specific Insights - Chuanfa Longmang reported significant revenue and profit growth in Q3, driven by the integration of Tianbao Company, with forecasts for net profits of 657 million, 817 million, and 964 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [8] - CNOOC Engineering's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 17.7 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan, and forecasts suggest continued growth in net profits over the next three years [9] - Luoyang Molybdenum's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan, and projections for net profits of 19 billion, 20.1 billion, and 21.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [10] - Western Mining's net profit for the first three quarters was 2.95 billion yuan, with a significant acquisition expected to enhance resource holdings and future profitability [11] - North New Building Materials reported a decline in revenue and net profit, prompting a downward revision of profit forecasts for the next three years, but maintains a stable outlook for its gypsum board business [12] - China National Materials reported stable performance with improved cash flow and a significant increase in new contracts, particularly from overseas markets [13] - Fuanna's revenue declined significantly in Q3, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts, reflecting challenges in retail and business adjustments [14] - Sanofi's net profit was below expectations due to one-time expenses, but the company remains a leader in blood glucose monitoring with potential for overseas expansion [15] - Ziyan Food's revenue decreased in the first three quarters, but Q3 showed signs of recovery, with forecasts for future earnings remaining positive [16] - Zhongju Gaoxin's revenue and net profit declined in the first three quarters, leading to revised forecasts, but the company continues to focus on channel development and new product performance [17] - Jinzhai Food reported modest revenue growth but faced profit declines, with future earnings projections indicating potential for recovery [18] - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue and net profit showed significant growth in the first three quarters, with upward revisions to future profit forecasts reflecting strong performance [19]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive momentum with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.05% to close at 26,433.7 points, with a total trading volume of HKD 2,670.77 million [1] - The rebound in the market is attributed to easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., which has led to an improvement in market sentiment [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - WuXi AppTec (02359) saw a significant increase of 4.07%, closing at HKD 115, contributing 3.09 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company reported a revenue of RMB 32.86 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, up 18.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 12.076 billion, up 84.84% [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances include Baidu Group-SW (09888) rising by 6.2% to HKD 125.1, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) increasing by 3.5% to HKD 82.8 [2] Sector Highlights Technology Sector - Major technology stocks experienced gains, with Baidu rising over 6%, Alibaba up over 3%, and Tencent increasing by 2.9% [3] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks surged following a preliminary agreement between the U.S. and China on tariffs, with Bitcoin surpassing USD 115,000 [3] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks saw a strong performance, with InnoCare Pharma (02577) increasing by 12.73% and SMIC (00981) rising by 3.5% [4] - The global memory market is experiencing price increases, with major companies like Samsung and SK Hynix raising contract prices by up to 30% [4] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, with companies like Zai Lab (06127) and WuXi AppTec (02359) reporting significant gains [4][5] - WuXi AppTec's optimistic revenue growth forecast for 2025 reflects a robust outlook for the CRO sector [5] Nuclear Power Sector - Nuclear power stocks performed well, with Harbin Electric (01133) rising by 11.44% and China National Nuclear Power (02302) increasing by 10.53% [6] - The Chinese government's focus on nuclear fusion as a future economic growth point is driving interest in this sector [6] Copper Industry - The copper sector saw widespread gains, with China Molybdenum (03993) increasing by 5.19% and Jiangxi Copper (00358) rising by 4.35% [6][7] - Market sentiment regarding copper prices is improving, with expectations of tighter supply in the coming year [7] Notable Stock Movements - Huaxin Cement (06655) rose by 10.23% after reporting a revenue of RMB 25.033 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.27% [8] - Baidu Group-SW (09888) is transitioning its valuation logic towards AI, with its current price reflecting a significant undervaluation of its core business [9] - GAC Group (02238) reported a revenue decline of 10.49% year-on-year, resulting in a net loss of approximately RMB 4.312 billion [11]

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --11月沪铜月度报告 发布日期：2025年10月27日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 核心观点—沪铜 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 ，2 ➢ 宏观方面：月初因美国政府的停摆加剧了市场不确定性的影响，铜价大幅上行，近期中美马来西亚的会谈形成市场乐观预期，且美国通 胀数据CPI缓于市场预期，市场继续交易降息预期。国内四中全会公报定调"十五五"，重申"以经济建设为中心"，聚焦高质量发展、 科技自立自强、扩大内需和国家安全，目前暂无明显的政策指引影响铜价。 ➢ 供给方面：印尼Grasberg、智利El Teniente、刚果金卡莫阿等接连发生事故或停产，导致全球铜精矿供应短缺，国内铜矿库存连续去 化，TC/RC费用高企，提供铜价上行的驱动力。2025年9月精炼铜产量为126.6万吨，同比增加10.1%，环比下降2.7%，11月产量还有概率 继续走低，原因是有检修计划的冶炼厂5家，且阳极板供应将持 ...

Core Insights - Yunnan Copper achieved total revenue of 137.743 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.73% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.551 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.91% [1] - The company implemented effective measures to enhance operational efficiency and stabilize growth through various management strategies [1] Business Operations - The company adopted a comprehensive cost control tool "4+2+1," resulting in a significant reduction in the unit processing cost of cathode copper [2] - Equipment management competitions led to an 18% decrease in failure rates, while the smelting system's operational efficiency continued to improve [2] - Yunnan Copper is advancing key projects such as the Hongnippo Copper Mine selection project and the Central Yunnan Nonferrous Recycled Copper project with a focus on safety and quality [2] Environmental and Safety Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing a three-year action plan for ecological and environmental protection, aiming to achieve specific targets by 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise driven by dual positive factors, with technology stocks leading the gains and certain sectors like pharmaceuticals and finance boosted by better-than-expected earnings reports [2][4]. Market Performance - On October 27, the three major indices in Hong Kong all rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.05% to close at 26,433.70 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 1.83% to 6,171.08 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising by 1.10% to 9,467.22 points [4]. - Key sectors that performed well included technology, brokerage, insurance, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals [4]. Technology Sector - The recent U.S.-China business negotiations reached a basic consensus, which may enhance market risk appetite [6]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, providing policy support for AI and domestic computing power sectors [7]. - Major tech stocks saw significant increases, with Baidu rising by 6.20%, Alibaba by 3.15%, Tencent by 2.90%, and JD.com by 2.33% [7][8]. Financial Sector - The financial sector led the market gains, driven by better-than-expected earnings from several companies. Notably, China Life Insurance expects a year-on-year profit increase of approximately 50% to 70% for the first three quarters [10]. - Several brokerage firms reported strong third-quarter results, with Citic Securities showing a 37.9% year-on-year increase in net profit [10]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector received positive news, with companies like Beike Micro, Huahong Semiconductor, and SMIC seeing stock price increases of 5.74%, 4.98%, and 3.50%, respectively [12][13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of technological self-reliance, indicating a strategic focus on the sector [12]. Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector also saw gains, with companies like Rongchang Bio, SiHuan Pharmaceutical, and WuXi AppTec increasing by 5.20%, 4.93%, and 4.18%, respectively [14][15]. - WuXi AppTec reported a net profit increase of 84.84% year-on-year for the first three quarters [14]. Copper Sector - The copper sector led the non-ferrous metals market, with companies like China Daye Nonferrous Metals and Luoyang Molybdenum rising by 11.11% and 5.19%, respectively [16]. - Analysts predict that domestic copper demand will enter a peak season, with expectations of increased production and rising copper prices [16]. Future Outlook - Huatai Securities suggests that the inflow of southbound funds may slow down in the future, having already exceeded HKD 500 billion this half-year [17]. - The market sentiment is currently neutral, indicating balanced risks, while the long-term trend remains positive due to improving industry dynamics and funding conditions [17].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing global demand for gold and copper is driven by their scarcity and unique financial properties, alongside factors such as de-dollarization, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and escalating geopolitical tensions. The price of gold is projected to rise significantly, with copper also expected to reach new highs due to supply-demand imbalances and strategic resource needs [3][5]. Group 1: Gold and Copper Market Dynamics - The price of gold is anticipated to exceed $5,000 in the coming years, reflecting its strategic value as a scarce resource [3]. - International copper prices have risen over 25% this year, surpassing $11,000 per ton, and are expected to approach $15,000 due to tightening supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. - The shift towards physical assets, driven by low interest rates and inflation concerns, positions strategic resources like gold and copper as optimal investment choices [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors for Copper - By 2025, global refined copper demand is projected to reach 27.29 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.5%-2.8%, while supply growth is only expected to be 1.1%, leading to a supply gap of approximately 100,000 tons [6][8]. - The electricity sector is the largest consumer of copper, accounting for 45%-48% of total demand, driven by infrastructure upgrades in China and aging grids in developed markets [7]. - Emerging markets, particularly India, are expected to see significant increases in copper demand due to urbanization and infrastructure development, with forecasts suggesting a 13% year-on-year growth in 2024 [7]. Group 3: Challenges in Copper Supply - Global copper production faces challenges from supply disruptions and declining ore grades, which have decreased from 0.81% in 2000 to 0.45% in 2023, leading to increased extraction costs [8]. - Major copper mines are experiencing production downgrades, and new mining projects require copper prices to remain above $10,500 per ton to be profitable [8]. - Geopolitical risks and environmental policies in key producing countries may further restrict copper supply, exacerbating the anticipated demand-supply gap [8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Copper - Companies with significant copper resources, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, are well-positioned to benefit from rising copper prices, with Zijin Mining reporting a 55.4% increase in net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 [9]. - Investment strategies should focus on resource-rich companies and consider ETFs that track copper-related indices to capture potential price increases [9]. - A balanced investment approach could involve a mix of 70% resource leaders and 30% growth-oriented processing companies to mitigate risks associated with individual stocks [9].

有色金属周报-铜 1 中美经贸谈判缓和和铜矿供给预期偏紧支撑铜价 2025年10月27日 研究所 王文虎 从业资格证号：F03087656 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472 联系方式：021-51801878 电解铜 | 供给端：国内外多个铜矿生产存在扰动，使中国铜精矿进口指数持续为负，引导国内铜精矿供需预期偏 | | --- | | 紧；废铜供给预期增加使国内粗铜或阳极板加工费初现升高，铜冶炼厂10月检修产能环比增加； | | 需求端：精铜制杆、铜板带产能开工率较上周下降，再生铜制杆、铜电线电缆、铜漆包线、铜管和黄铜 | | 棒产能开工率较上周升高，高位铜价使下游刚需采购为主。 | | 库存端：进口窗口关闭或限制国内电解铜进口量，使中国保税区电解铜库存量较上周减少；中国电解铜 | | 社会库存量较上周增加；伦金所电解铜库存量较上周减少；COMEX铜库存量较上周增加。 | | 投资策略：美联储未来降息和停止缩表预期，中美经贸谈判达成初步方案，海外多个铜矿存生产扰动， | | 或使沪铜价格谨慎偏强，建议投资者逢价格回落布局多单为主，关注83000-86000附近支撑位及90000- | | 100000附 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong and A-share markets experienced a synchronized rise, influenced by a preliminary consensus in US-China trade relations, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.05% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.83% [1][2] - The markets have rebounded for three consecutive days, indicating a positive trend [1] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks generally saw gains, with notable increases in Baidu (up over 6%), Huahong Semiconductor, and NIO (both up over 4%) [4][5] - Semiconductor stocks led the market, with significant gains from companies like Brainhole Technology (up over 13%) and InnoCare (up over 13%) [6] - The pharmaceutical outsourcing sector also performed well, with Zhaoyan New Drug rising over 8% and WuXi AppTec increasing over 4% [7] - Copper stocks showed strong performance, with China Daye Nonferrous Metals leading with an increase of over 11% [9] - Nuclear power stocks were generally up, with China National Nuclear Corporation rising over 10% [10] Investment Trends - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of 2.873 billion HKD, indicating strong investor interest in the Hong Kong market [13] - Analysts suggest that the short-term volatility may not alter the long-term trend, with potential for improved market conditions in the fourth quarter [15]