Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - Concerns over overseas electrolytic aluminum supply due to power shortages have led to aluminum prices surpassing 22,000 RMB/ton [11] - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable, with expectations of continued demand growth despite entering the traditional off-season [11] - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in the long term due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections Price - As of November 14, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,858.5 USD/ton, a decrease of 3.5 USD/ton week-on-week but an increase of 330.5 USD/ton year-on-year [21] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 21,840.0 RMB/ton, up 215.0 RMB/ton week-on-week and up 1,075.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [21] Production - In October 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.742 million tons, an increase of 127,000 tons month-on-month and 168,000 tons year-on-year [51] - The production of alumina in October 2025 was 7.785 million tons, up 182,000 tons month-on-month and 872,000 tons year-on-year [51] Inventory - As of November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 621,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 1,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.281 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week-on-week [31] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price 30.55 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.65 RMB, with a PE ratio of 11.5, rated as "Buy" [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price 14.02 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.00 RMB, with a PE ratio of 14.0, rated as "Buy" [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price 25.73 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.13 RMB, with a PE ratio of 12.1, rated as "Buy" [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price 11.66 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.84 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.8, rated as "Buy" [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price 25.95 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.88 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.8, rated as "Buy" [5]

每经AI快讯，中国铝业（SH 601600，收盘价：11.66元）11月16日晚间发布公告称，本次拟减持的人员 为中国铝业股份有限公司现任董事、副总经理蒋涛先生。截至本公告披露日，蒋涛先生持有公司23万股 A 股股份，占公司已发行总股本的约0.0013%。因个人资金需求，蒋涛先生计划自2025年12月8日起至 2026年3月7日止期间内，通过集中竞价方式减持公司A 股股份不超过约5.75万股，约占公司总股本的 0.00034%。蒋涛先生本次计划减持股份数量未超过其持有的公司股份数量的25%，减持价格按市场价格 确定。 2024年1至12月份，中国铝业的营业收入构成为：铝行业占比96.33%，能源行业占比3.67%。 截至发稿，中国铝业市值为2000亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——软银突然暴跌！曾与黄仁勋"相拥而泣"，68岁日本首富孙正义再次清仓英 伟达，套现押注OpenAI，提前入账80亿美元利润藏"猫腻" （记者 王瀚黎） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the supply may slightly converge while the demand remains relatively stable. It is recommended to lightly go long on the alumina main contract at low prices, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability with a slight increase in social inventory. It is suggested to lightly trade the Shanghai Aluminum main contract in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and slightly decreasing demand. It is recommended to lightly trade the cast aluminum main contract in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. - In the options market, considering the subsequent aluminum price to fluctuate with potential volatility convergence, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [74]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated, rising first and then falling, with a weekly increase of 0.99% to 21,840 yuan/ton. Alumina rebounded slightly, with a weekly increase of 1.4% to 2,822 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum main contract rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 0.4% to 21,095 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Alumina**: The supply tension of bauxite may ease. The current high - running capacity and high - level operation of alumina may affect smelter profits, leading to some high - cost enterprises reducing production. The demand from electrolytic aluminum remains relatively stable. The supply - demand situation may improve with production control [5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material price rebounds slightly but remains low, and the smelter profit is good with high - level operation of capacity and high start - up rate. The domestic supply may remain high. The demand may slow down due to the transition of downstream consumption from peak to off - peak season and high aluminum prices, but the export demand may be boosted by overseas supply disturbances, resulting in only a slight increase in domestic inventory [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of domestic scrap aluminum remains tight, and the cost support is strong. The production of cast aluminum enterprises is limited, and the demand may be affected by high prices and the transition from peak to off - peak season [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price Movement**: - As of November 14, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.93%) from November 7. LME Aluminum closed at 2,877 US dollars/ton on November 13, up 34 US dollars/ton (1.2%) from November 7. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.64, down 0.21 from November 7 [9][10]. - As of November 14, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,790 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (1.82%) from November 7. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 21,095 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (0.4%) from November 7 [13]. - **Position and Net Position**: As of November 14, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 783,579 lots, up 53,411 lots (7.31%) from November 7. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 29,167 lots from November 7 [16]. - **Futures Price Difference**: As of November 14, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price difference was 585 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan/ton from November 7. The copper - aluminum futures price difference was 65,060 yuan/ton, up 745 yuan/ton from November 7 [21]. - **Spot Price Movement**: - As of November 14, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang remained unchanged from November 7 at 2,855 yuan/ton. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.93%) from November 7 [24]. - As of November 14, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 21,890 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton (1.44%) from November 7. The spot discount was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: - As of November 13, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 553,200 tons, up 4,825 tons (0.88%) from November 6. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,335 tons on November 7, down 239 tons (0.21%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 566,000 tons, up 1,000 tons (0.18%) from November 6 [33]. - As of November 14, 2025, the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 64,742 tons, up 972 tons (1.52%) from November 7. The total LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 521,525 tons on November 13, up 14,575 tons (2.88%) from November 6 [33]. - **Bauxite**: The inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports was 26.4 million tons, down 230,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 15.8806 million tons, down 13.17% month - on - month but up 38.14% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 157.3053 million tons, up 31.97% year - on - year [38]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton week - on - week. In September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and crushed materials was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year, and the export was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [44]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, the alumina production was 7.999 million tons, up 8.7% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production was 68.5599 million tons, up 8.4% year - on - year. The import was 60,000 tons, down 36.43% month - on - month but up 61.68% year - on - year, and the export was 250,000 tons, up 38.89% month - on - month and 78.57% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 548,400 tons, down 57.78% year - on - year [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: - In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, up 0.4% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative production was 37.75 million tons, up 2% year - on - year. - In October 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.434 million tons, down 0.12% month - on - month but up 1.54% year - on - year. The total capacity was 45.232 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year. The start - up rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% from last month and 1.01% from the same period last year [54]. - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 246,800 tons, up 80.13% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 1.9595 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year. The export in September was 29,000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to September was 181,400 tons. From January to August 2025, the global aluminum market supply gap was 105,400 tons [50]. - **Aluminum Products**: - In September 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.9 million tons, down 1.5% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production was 49.7675 million tons, unchanged year - on - year. The import was 360,000 tons, up 35.4% year - on - year, and the export was 520,000 tons, down 7.3% year - on - year. From January to September, the import was 3.01 million tons, up 5.7% year - on - year, and the export was 4.52 million tons, down 8.1% year - on - year [58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, unchanged month - on - month but up 15.96% year - on - year. The production was 608,300 tons, down 7.35 tons month - on - month and 1.83% year - on - year [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.776 million tons, up 17.1% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production was 14.116 million tons. The import was 82,200 tons, down 13.21% year - on - year, and the export was 23,500 tons, up 2.06% year - on - year. From January to September, the import was 765,200 tons, down 13.97% year - on - year, and the export was 197,800 tons, up 9.62% year - on - year [64]. - **Related Industries**: - In October 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from last month but up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.87% year - on - year, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.31% year - on - year [67]. - From January to October 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3.322 million, up 8.81% year - on - year, and the production was 3.359 million, up 12.1% year - on - year [70]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Given the subsequent fluctuating aluminum price and potential volatility convergence, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [74].

Core Views - The report emphasizes that the metal industry is expected to see a rise in prices and profitability due to supply-demand dynamics and interest rate cuts, with a focus on industrial metals like copper and aluminum [5][6][10]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are projected to rise as the global copper market faces a supply shortage of approximately 1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, primarily due to the anticipated recovery of the Grasberg and Panama copper mines [5][23]. - The report notes that the Grasberg copper mine's production cut has led to a significant upward adjustment in copper price expectations, with a potential price increase from 79,000 CNY/ton to 82,000-83,000 CNY/ton [21][24]. - Aluminum profitability is expected to increase further, with China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaching 98%, indicating a tight supply-demand balance that could lead to price surges if demand exceeds expectations [5][30]. Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by factors such as weakening U.S. non-farm data, manageable inflation, and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates further [6][10]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented an export quota system that could create a supply-demand gap of over 10% in the global cobalt market [7]. - The lithium industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with demand for energy storage batteries significantly exceeding previous forecasts, leading to a potential supply shortage if production does not keep pace [8]. Minor Metals - The strategic importance of rare earth metals is highlighted, with China maintaining a dominant position in global production and supply, which is expected to strengthen prices further [10]. - Tungsten prices may rise due to recovering overseas demand and relaxed export controls, while antimony prices are also expected to increase following recent export policy adjustments [11][12]. Uranium - The demand for uranium is projected to increase alongside the growth of nuclear power generation in China, with expectations of a significant rise in nuclear capacity by 2035 [13]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests a selection of stocks across various metal sectors, including copper, aluminum, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals, indicating a diversified investment strategy [14].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a new annual high of 22,100 yuan/ton, driven by multiple macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Since late October, aluminum prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the average price for October at 21,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.26% and a year-on-year increase of 1.40% [2]. - As of November 10, the average price for domestic A00 aluminum was 21,500 yuan/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 0.14% and a rise of 690 yuan/ton from the October low, representing a 3.32% increase [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Support - Key macroeconomic factors supporting aluminum prices include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points, which alleviated global liquidity pressures and improved market risk appetite [3]. - The consensus reached in U.S.-China tariff negotiations, including the reduction of certain aluminum product tariffs, has eased concerns about export restrictions, benefiting aluminum processing enterprises [3]. - The stabilization of energy costs due to a calming geopolitical situation in the Middle East further supports the aluminum industry [3]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply-demand balance is tight, with significant constraints on the supply side, particularly due to transportation limitations in the northwest region during the heating season, leading to reduced aluminum ingot shipments to East China [4]. - The operational capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached the policy limit of 45 million tons, with limited new capacity additions, maintaining a high operating rate of over 96% [4]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The demand side is showing signs of differentiation, with overall demand in October being strong but expected to decline as the industry transitions into the off-season in November [5]. - The construction sector is experiencing reduced activity due to winter conditions, while demand in the aluminum cable sector remains stable, albeit with slower order uptake due to rising aluminum prices [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The aluminum market is expected to experience a high-level oscillation from November to December, with prices supported by macroeconomic factors but facing downward pressure from declining demand [6][7]. - The projected price range for A00 aluminum is between 20,500 yuan/ton and 22,000 yuan/ton, with potential for new highs in November followed by a gradual weakening towards the end of the month and into December [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic aluminum market is in a transition from peak season to off - season. The supply and demand situation is complex, with changes in production capacity, consumption, and inventory. The recent sharp rise in aluminum stocks and the influx of funds into the Shanghai Aluminum market are based on expectations of supply shortages in the US, but there are risks of over - trading. Short - term observation is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week View - **Fundamental Analysis**: Domestic bauxite supply in Shanxi and Henan is expected to improve, while the price of Guinea bauxite has declined. Alumina production capacity has increased slightly, and inventory has risen. Electrolytic aluminum production capacity has decreased slightly, with some reduction due to technical upgrades and environmental protection. Domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates have declined, and aluminum ingot inventory has increased slightly. In the recycled casting aluminum alloy sector, the production of leading enterprises has not been affected for the time being [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and sold out - of - the - money put options. For Shanghai Aluminum and casting aluminum alloy, it is recommended to strengthen observation [5]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, but no specific analysis is provided [7][8]. 3.3. Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are stable, and the supply of domestic ore is expected to improve. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bauxite has decreased by $1 per dry ton to $71.5 per dry ton. The end of the rainy season in Guinea and the weakening of alumina prices have put downward pressure on bauxite prices [11]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of alumina remained unchanged week - on - week at 11,462 million tons, the operating capacity increased by 100,000 tons to 9,685 million tons, and the operating rate was 84.5%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina decreased by 33.7 yuan/ton to 2,837.5 yuan/ton. National alumina inventory increased by 88,000 tons to 4.218 million tons. Some enterprises in the north have reduced production due to heavy pollution weather, while some have slightly increased production after stable operation [14]. 3.5. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on alumina basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume, but no specific analysis is provided [16][17][18][19]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged week - on - week at 4.5232 million tons, and the operating capacity decreased by 10,000 tons to 4.4424 million tons. Some enterprises have reduced production for technical upgrades and environmental protection reasons, while new production capacity is expected to be put into operation [23]. 3.7. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on aluminum import profit, Shanghai Aluminum forward curve, aluminum rod processing fee, and thermal coal price, but no specific analysis is provided [25][26][27]. 3.8. Inventory - The report presents data on aluminum rod social inventory, aluminum ingot social inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [29][30][31][32]. 3.9. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 59.1% week - on - week. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight and the price is high. The demand from the automotive end has resilience, but the high aluminum price has led to a decline in downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The production of leading enterprises has not been affected for the time being [37]. 3.10. Important High - Frequency Data of Casting Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the price of aluminum profiles, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 aluminum, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots, but no specific analysis is provided [39][40][41][42][43]. 3.11. Downstream Operating Rate (First Part) - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 61.6% week - on - week. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 0.9% to 52.6%, with different performance in industrial and construction profiles. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% to 66%, affected by high aluminum prices and the transition to the off - season [49]. 3.12. Downstream Operating Rate (Second Part) - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 61.4% week - on - week, mainly due to heavy pollution weather control in some areas of Henan and slow order progress. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.2% to 59.4%, with stable production and increased downstream demand [52].

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - Due to supply constraints, it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a rising or oscillatingly strong trend. The strategy is to continue taking long positions in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2601 being 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View and Strategy - **Macro**: In October, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase for the fifth consecutive month. The US government shutdown led to the non - release of the October non - farm payroll data. Economists expect a 60,000 decrease in non - farm employment and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [5]. - **Supply**: Bauxite mining in northern China has not resumed. Some alumina plants in the region have reduced their operations. A large alumina enterprise in Hebei shut down 2 roasting furnaces on the evening of October 28 and plans to resume gradually on October 31. Alumina inventory is continuously accumulating, while the operating rate and supply of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable [5]. - **Demand**: Recent electrolytic aluminum consumption has been generally good. The automobile industry is relatively prosperous, and the power grid - related orders are expected to be released rapidly. Overall, domestic demand is expected to continue to improve [5]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME aluminum futures inventory increased slightly, while domestic social inventory continued to decline slightly and is expected to continue to decrease [5]. - **View**: Supply disturbances have not changed the weak fundamentals of alumina. Due to supply constraints, the aluminum price is expected to maintain a rising or oscillatingly strong trend [5]. - **Strategy**: Continue taking long positions in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2601 being 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Graphs of domestic aluminum spot and futures prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premium and discount, LME aluminum price trends, and China's aluminum ingot import profit are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9][13]. 3. Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In September 2025, China imported 1,588 million tons of bauxite, a 38.3% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the import volume was 15,731 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase. In 2024, China imported 15,876.7 million tons of bauxite, a 12.3% year - on - year increase. Guinea and Australia are the main sources. In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 488.21 million tons, a 2.32% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4,574.32 million tons, with a significant slowdown in production growth. Recent domestic bauxite port inventory has decreased [20][25]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, China's alumina production was 799.9 million tons, an 8.7% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 6,856.0 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase. From January to September, China exported 200 million tons of alumina, a 61.8% year - on - year increase, with 25 million tons in September, an 82.2% year - on - year increase. As of September 2025, the domestic metallurgical alumina production capacity reached 11,032 million tons, an increase of 630 million tons from the end of last year. More new production capacity is expected to be put into operation from the end of 2025 to Q1 2026. In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity release, and there are still many projects to be put into operation in 2026 and later. Overseas, there were approximately 500 million tons of new production capacity put into operation, and at least 870 million tons of new production capacity are expected in 2026 [34][35][38]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.5 million tons; the operating capacity was 4,444.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 92 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 99.41%, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. In September 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.08 million tons, a 0.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the global primary aluminum production was 55.113 million tons. In September 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.81 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 33.97 million tons, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China imported 246,800 tons of primary aluminum, a 14.36% month - on - month increase and an 80.07% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 1.9618 million tons. As of November 6, 2025, the LME futures inventory was 550,500 tons, and China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 607,000 tons [42][53][62]. 4. Primary Processing and End - Market - **Alloy Ingot**: In September 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 177,600 tons, a 17.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 1.4116 million tons, a 15.9% year - on - year increase [68]. - **Aluminum Products**: In September 2025, China's aluminum product production was 590,000 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4.9768 million tons, the same as the previous year [71]. - **Aluminum Import and Export**: In September 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of unforged aluminum and aluminum products, a 35.4% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 3.01 million tons, a 5.7% year - on - year increase. In September, the export volume was 520,000 tons, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 4.52 million tons, an 8.1% year - on - year decrease [78]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report presents graphs of global aluminum downstream demand structure, green demand forecast, global photovoltaic and wind power installation capacity forecast, global new energy vehicle sales forecast, China's real estate market situation, China's new energy vehicle production, and power engineering investment, but no specific analysis is provided [81][87][92]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides global and Chinese electrolytic aluminum supply - demand balance tables from 2021 to 2027. In 2025, overseas alumina had 6.6 million tons of new production capacity (including restarted capacity), with 4 million tons of newly invested capacity. The net increase in production capacity in 2025 was 4.02 million tons. It is expected that in 2025, the global market will maintain a tight - balance situation, with a slight shortage overseas and a slight surplus in China [103][104][105]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content is provided.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The raw material end shows that the rainy season in Guinea is ending, and the subsequent import volume of bauxite may recover, but the current supply is still tight and port inventories are slightly decreasing. Supply may gradually converge as high - cost enterprises face losses and carry out maintenance and production cuts. Demand is expected to increase steadily as the electrolytic aluminum industry is in the peak season, with strong aluminum prices and high production enthusiasm. It is recommended to lightly go long on the alumina main contract at low prices [4][5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina, the raw material, is still abundant, with low prices. Aluminum prices are strong, increasing smelter profits and production enthusiasm. Domestic production capacity is approaching the industry limit, and supply is expected to remain stable. However, the traditional peak consumption season is ending, and downstream demand may decline, with inventory accumulating. It is recommended to lightly go short on the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at high prices [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: The supply of scrap aluminum, the raw material, is tight, and the price of casting aluminum auxiliary materials is rising, providing strong cost support. Supply may slow down due to raw material shortages. High aluminum prices have led to weak downstream demand and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to lightly go short on the cast aluminum main contract at high prices [7]. - **Options Market**: Considering that aluminum prices may face pressure in the future and volatility may increase, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [74]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Alumina**: Go long on the main contract at low prices with light positions, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Go short on the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at high prices with light positions, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: Go short on the main contract at high prices with light positions, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: As of November 7, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,550 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from October 31; LME Aluminum closed at 2,843 US dollars/ton on November 6, down 0.94% from October 31. Alumina futures were at 2,740 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from October 31; cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,010 yuan/ton, up 0.99% [10][14]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.6 on November 7, down 0.25 from October 31. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,095 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 64,315 yuan/ton, down 1,395 yuan/ton [11][22]. - **Inventory and Position**: Shanghai Aluminum's open interest was 730,168 lots on November 7, up 17.44% from October 31. The net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 25,415 lots [17]. - **Spot Prices**: As of November 7, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,580 yuan/ton, up 1.31% from October 31 with a spot discount of 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. Alumina spot prices in Henan and Shanxi decreased, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy increased [25][30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of November 6, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 548,375 tons, up 19.34% from October 30; domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 565,000 tons, up 0.71% from October 30. As of November 7, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,335 tons, down 0.21% from the previous week [33]. - **Bauxite**: The inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports was 26.4 million tons, down 230,000 tons from the previous period. In September 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 15.8806 million tons, down 13.17% from the previous month but up 38.14% year - on - year [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. In September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year; the export was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [43]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, the production was 7.999 million tons, up 8.7% year - on - year. The import was 60,000 tons, down 36.43% from the previous month but up 61.68% year - on - year; the export was 250,000 tons, up 38.89% from the previous month and 78.57% year - on - year [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In September 2025, the production was 3.809 million tons, up 1.8% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.449 million tons, up 0.16% from the previous month and 2.11% year - on - year; the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, flat from the previous month and up 0.52% year - on - year; the operating rate was 98.27%, up 0.16% from the previous month and down 1.53% year - on - year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In September 2025, the production was 5.9 million tons, down 1.5% year - on - year. The import was 360,000 tons, up 35.4% year - on - year; the export was 520,000 tons, down 7.3% year - on - year [57]. - **Cast Aluminum**: In September 2025, the production was 656,500 tons, up 3.25% from the previous month and 10% year - on - year. The monthly built - in capacity was 1.26 million tons, flat from the previous month and up 15.96% year - on - year [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the production was 1.776 million tons, up 17.1% year - on - year. The import was 82,200 tons, down 13.21% year - on - year; the export was 23,500 tons, up 2.06% year - on - year [63]. - **Real Estate**: In September 2025, the real estate development sentiment index was 92.78, down 0.27 from the previous month and up 0.47 year - on - year. From January to September 2024, the new housing construction area was 453.9932 million square meters, down 19% year - on - year; the completed housing area was 311.2888 million square meters, down 14.96% year - on - year [66]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to September 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% year - on - year. In September 2025, Chinese automobile sales were 3,226,375 units, up 14.86% year - on - year; production was 3,275,802 units, up 17.15% year - on - year [69]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Due to expected pressure on aluminum prices and increased volatility, consider a double - buying strategy to bet on increased volatility [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy for SHFE aluminum: Long the nearby contract and short the distant contract [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas supply is affected by production cuts, while consumption is expected to enter the peak season. With macro - positive factors, the decline of aluminum prices is limited, and the upward space may be opened if the inventory reduction is smooth [6]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. The cost side has a slight downward space, and the spot price is difficult to rise. The current price valuation is low, and attention should be paid to potential emergencies [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 30 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,240 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes by 10 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton, and the spot premium remains unchanged at - 145 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On November 6, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,355 yuan/ton, the closing price is 21,630 yuan/ton, a change of 280 yuan/ton. The highest price is 21,690 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 21,330 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 178,925 lots, and the open interest is 228,130 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 622,000 tons, a change of - 5,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory is 63,969 tons, a change of - 225 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory is 548,375 tons, a change of - 2,075 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On November 6, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 2,840 yuan/ton, Shandong is 2,790 yuan/ton, Henan is 2,865 yuan/ton, Guangxi is 2,970 yuan/ton, Guizhou is 2,980 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 317 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On November 6, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 2,770 yuan/ton, the closing price is 2,787 yuan/ton, a change of 24 yuan/ton or 0.87% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price is 2,799 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 2,764 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 204,250 lots, and the open interest is 423,108 lots [2]. 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 6, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum is 16,900 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum procurement price is 17,100 yuan/ton, both with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 20,800 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 72,800 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 59,900 tons [4]. 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,042 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 142 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Overseas production cuts due to accidents, and the supply is not in surplus even with new and restarted capacity expectations. Consumption is expected to enter the peak season in November - December. With macro - positive factors, the decline of aluminum prices is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm [6]. 3.2.2 Alumina - The price of alumina continues to decline. The supply of bauxite is abundant, and the cost side has a slight downward space. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise [7][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [9] Group 2: Core Views - The domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum remain stable. Overseas, an accident in an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant caused a production cut of about 200,000 tons, and high power costs continue to pressure overseas operations. Consumption shows good growth, and if the social inventory reduction goes smoothly, there is potential for aluminum prices to rise [6]. - Guinea's bauxite supply pressure persists, and the alumina market has an oversupply situation. Although the market activity has increased due to electrolytic aluminum plants' procurement, the spot price is difficult to rise, and the current price is undervalued [7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On November 4, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount was -10 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,290 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount was -160 yuan/ton, a change of -20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount was -150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,555 yuan/ton, closed at 21,465 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,370 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 211,680 lots, and the open interest was 256,161 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 4, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, a change of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 64,194 tons, a change of -75 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 552,575 tons, a change of -2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: On November 4, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,000 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,010 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 318 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,790 yuan/ton, closed at 2,770 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton or -0.54% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,798 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 193,593 lots, and the open interest was 420,282 lots [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On November 4, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 21,120 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 120 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. An accident in an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant caused a production cut of about 200,000 tons, and high power costs continue to pressure overseas operations. Although the social inventory shows a mediocre performance during the peak consumption season, the aluminum water ratio has reached a record high of 77%, indicating good consumption growth, and the real peak consumption season is expected from November to December. With the positive progress of Sino - US negotiations, there are still macro - positive factors, and the decline of aluminum prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the social inventory reduction rhythm [6]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's bauxite supply pressure persists. The alumina spot price is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward alumina due to rich profits and winter storage demand, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise. The cost of the ore end has decreased, but the alumina smelting loss has not improved. There is no large - scale production cut, and new production capacity is still expected. The current price is undervalued [7][8].