Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations during the off-season, and a growth stabilization plan is expected to be announced soon [6][11]. - Despite the off-season demand, the low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices [11]. - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 18, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2638.0 per ton, up $36.0 from the previous week, representing a 1.4% week-on-week increase and a 9.7% year-on-year increase [24]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20510.0 CNY per ton, down 185.0 CNY from the previous week, a 0.9% decrease week-on-week, but up 3.9% year-on-year [24]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 20760.0 CNY per ton, unchanged from the previous week, but up 5.4% year-on-year [24]. 2. Production - In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.9 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 2.8 million tons year-on-year [53]. - The alumina production in June 2025 was 725.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 26.9 million tons year-on-year [53]. 3. Inventory - As of July 17, the domestic mainstream consumption area had an electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory of 49.20 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons week-on-week [7]. - The aluminum rod inventory was 15.60 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons week-on-week, mainly due to reduced production and downstream replenishment [7]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.71 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.12 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.62 CNY for 2025E [5]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.91 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.00 CNY for 2025E [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by tariff policies and supply - demand changes. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, and the supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement and waiting - and - seeing [3][5]. - The alumina market is expected to shift from a tight - balance to a structurally surplus situation in July, but the spot market still has some support, and the upper pressure on the price rebound is around 3200 yuan [12][16]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The short - term price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the inventory is expected to show a narrow - range increase or decrease in July [21][22]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a weak supply - demand relationship. The supply is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to be mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [25][27]. - The zinc market has a continuous increase in supply and enters the off - season of consumption. The price is under pressure and may decline [33][34]. - The lead market has limited supply growth and improved consumption. The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [39][40]. - The nickel market is affected by tariff concerns, with weak supply and demand in the off - season. The price is weak and oscillating with cost support [43][44]. - The stainless steel market has poor demand both at home and abroad, and the price is under pressure due to over - supply and inventory accumulation [49][50]. - The industrial silicon market may be in a balanced supply - demand situation in July. The price may decline slightly in the short term and then rise after a correction [55][56]. - The polysilicon market is affected by rumors and price transmission. The short - term price may enter a volatile trend [60][62]. - The lithium carbonate market has many supply - side disturbances. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the fourth quarter [65][66]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 77,980 yuan/ton, up 0.06%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 12,976 lots to 499,000 lots. In the spot market, the price trends in different regions vary [2]. Important Information - The US and Indonesia reached an agreement on July 15th. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. In June 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrates increased year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [3][4]. Logic Analysis - The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, the LME copper inventory is increasing, and the domestic supply is relatively sufficient. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement [5][7]. Trading Strategy - Not provided Alumina Market Review - The alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3111 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 8379 lots to 422,200 lots. The spot price increased in different regions [9]. Important Information - There are many aspects of information, including China's central financial meeting, domestic spot transactions, warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [10][11][12]. Logic Analysis - The production capacity is stable, but the output is increasing. The supply - demand pattern is expected to change, and the spot market still has support [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions continue to hold; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [14] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract increased by 85 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot price increased slightly in different regions [20]. Important Information - It includes inventory changes, US inflation data, Sino - US trade information, and housing completion data [21]. Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - factors and fundamentals, the price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the inventory is expected to show a narrow - range change [22]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under short - term pressure and fluctuates; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [23] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 19,820 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 93 lots to 10,075 lots. The spot price remained stable [25]. Important Information - It includes production, cost, profit, and inventory data [25][26]. Logic Analysis - The supply is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price is mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [27]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure at a high level and maintains a bearish view; Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider spot - futures arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is more than 400 yuan; Option: Wait and see [30] Zinc Market Review - The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.27% to 22,030 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index decreased by 3486 lots to 231,600 lots. The spot market trading is mainly among traders [32]. Important Information - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter of 2025 [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply is increasing, the consumption is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Hold profitable short positions and add short positions when the price is high; Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options; Option: Wait and see [35] Lead Market Review - The Shanghai lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.65% to 16,925 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index increased by 3823 lots to 96,600 lots. The spot market trading is not good [37]. Important Information - Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [39]. Logic Analysis - The supply growth is limited, the consumption is improving, and the short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out in the range; Arbitrage and Option: Not provided [41] Nickel Market Review - The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2509 increased by 1120 yuan to 120,710 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,098 lots. The spot premium changed [42]. Important Information - GKEML completed the LME warehouse receipts of three metals, and the US adjusted the tariff on Indonesian goods [43]. Logic Analysis - Affected by tariff concerns, the supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is weak and oscillating [44]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Not provided; Arbitrage: Sell put options; Option: Wait and see [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2508 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 12,670 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 5886 lots. The spot price is in a certain range [48]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of the BIS stainless - steel certification rule, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless - steel products [49]. Logic Analysis - The demand is poor at home and abroad, and the price is under pressure due to over - supply and inventory accumulation [50]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on rebounds; Arbitrage: Wait and see [51] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated weakly and closed at 8685 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The spot price of some grades increased [52][54]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [55]. Logic Analysis - The supply - demand situation in July may be balanced. The price may decline slightly in the short term and then rise after a correction [56]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price oscillates weakly and can be bullish after a correction; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [53] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose first and then fell, closing at 42,945 yuan/ton, up 1.50%. The spot price remained unchanged [57][58]. Important Information - China and the EU held an energy dialogue and agreed to continue cooperation in multiple fields [59]. Logic Analysis - Affected by rumors and price transmission, the short - term price may enter a volatile trend [60][62]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range; Arbitrage: Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon strategy; Option: Wait and see [63] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract increased by 260 yuan to 66,420 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 3318 lots. The spot price increased [64]. Important Information - China adjusted the technology export catalog, and Chilean indigenous groups applied to suspend a lithium - mining cooperation procedure [65]. Logic Analysis - There are many supply - side disturbances. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the fourth quarter [66]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait for the right - side short - selling opportunity; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [67][68][70]

Group 1: Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views - **Aluminum**: Seasonal off - peak is evident, downstream开工率 drops, but inventory is at a historically low level. Macro situation is temporarily positive. Aluminum smelting profit expands to 4000 yuan/ton in the off - peak season. A price correction due to inventory accumulation will provide an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions. In the long run, supply is restricted while consumption grows steadily [1][3]. - **Alumina**: The spot market price rises. Supply is slightly in surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating at the raw material reserve of electrolytic aluminum plants. The low - warehouse receipt problem persists, but the in - transit inventory is increasing. The Axis mine right issue may be resolved, increasing the expectation of mine restart. Alumina smelting profit remains, and the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [4][5]. - **Aluminum alloy**: It is in the consumption off - peak season. The price follows the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost side supports the price. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract which turns into a peak - season contract [6]. 3. Strategies - **Unilateral**: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Long SHFE aluminum calendar spread, long AD11 short AL11 [7]. Group 2: Key Data 1. Aluminum - **Spot price**: On July 14, 2025, Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20470 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20330 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20460 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures price**: On July 14, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20415 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decline of - 1.45%. The trading volume was 208641 lots, an increase of 88416 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 222489 lots, a decrease of 32657 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 50.1 tons [1]. 2. Alumina - **Spot price**: On July 14, 2025, Shanxi alumina price was 3150 yuan/ton, Shandong price was 3140 yuan/ton, Guangxi price was 3250 yuan/ton, and Australian alumina FOB price was 366 dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures price**: On July 14, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3088 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3145 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decline of - 0.6% [2]. 3. Aluminum alloy - **Price**: On July 14, 2025, Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 15100 yuan/ton, mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 15300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. ADC12 Baotai quoted price was 19500 yuan/ton, down - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 in East China was - 870 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 3.14 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.25 tons; the in - plant inventory was 7.09 tons, with a weekly decrease of - 0.79 tons; the total inventory was 10.23 tons, with a weekly decrease of - 0.54 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes. The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. [5][7] - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13][14] - The electrolytic aluminum market is influenced by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations. The inventory shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21][22] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum and weak downstream demand, with some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28][29] - The zinc market has a situation of increasing supply and entering the consumption off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] - The lead market has a supply that is difficult to increase and improving consumption, and short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40][41] - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, with prices showing a volatile trend. [44][45] - The stainless - steel market is affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, with prices expected to be weak. [51][53] - The industrial silicon market may be in a state of supply - demand balance in July. With the reduction of production by leading enterprises and the resumption of production in the southwest, prices have strengthened recently. [60] - The polysilicon market has price fluctuations within a certain range, and traders are advised to adjust their positions according to market rumors. [65][66] - The lithium carbonate market is affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, with prices rising sharply in the short - term and expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 78,400 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its positions by 7,283 lots to 510,300 lots. [2] - Spot: In the East China market, holders actively sold goods, and downstream buying was weaker than last week. In the Guangdong market, inventory increased significantly, and downstream procurement increased due to price drops. In the North China market, consumption was weak. [2] Important Information - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee. [3] - Codelco's copper production in the first half of the year increased by 9% year - on - year, and the output of its El Teniente copper mine increased by 14%. [3] - As of July 14, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.39 million tons to 14.76 million tons compared with Thursday. [3] Logic Analysis - The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. The LME copper inventory has bottomed out, and the price decline has slightly improved market procurement. [5][7] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for copper is provided in the report. Alumina Market Review - Futures: The alumina 2509 contract fell by 19 yuan to 3,145 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 8,041 lots to 422,200 lots. [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina remained flat, and the prices in most regions were stable, except for a 10 - yuan drop in Xinjiang. [9] Relevant Information - The central government emphasized the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. [10] - A Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina procurement price increased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton. [10] - The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 4,803 tons on July 14. [11] - The national alumina production capacity was basically stable, with an increase in weekly output and inventory. [11] Logic Analysis - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13] Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is expected that the alumina price will generally fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply changes of bauxite in Guinea and the "anti - involution" sentiment. [14] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [15] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [15] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell by 300 yuan/ton to 20,415 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 47,247 lots to 644,600 lots. [17] - Spot: The spot price of aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and the Central Plains decreased. [17] Relevant Information - The total inventory of Chinese aluminum ingots increased by 28,000 tons compared with last Thursday. [18] - The basis of aluminum in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased. [18] - China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity in May 2025 increased significantly year - on - year, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products in June decreased year - on - year. [18] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations, the inventory of aluminum ingots shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The aluminum price may be under pressure in the short - term but should not be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [22] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [22] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 175 yuan to 19,805 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 562 lots to 9,951 lots. [24] - Spot: The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in different regions decreased by 100 yuan/ton. [24] Relevant Information - The output of recycled aluminum alloy in June increased, and the cost of the ADC12 industry increased, resulting in a narrowing of profits. [24][25] - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased on July 14. [25] - The weekly output of casting aluminum alloy decreased, and the factory and social inventories showed different trends. [26] - Thailand plans to restrict the establishment and expansion of recycling plants. [26][27] Logic Analysis - Alloy ingot enterprises are restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and downstream die - casting plants have low operating rates. There are some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The absolute price of aluminum alloy futures is expected to follow the high - pressure trend of aluminum prices. [29] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is above 400 yuan. [29] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [29] Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract fell 0.67% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 13,800 lots to 238,300 lots. [31] - Spot: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in the Shanghai market was between 22,180 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium continued to decline. [31] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places increased compared with previous data. [32] Logic Analysis - The domestic zinc supply is increasing, and the consumption is entering the off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short positions can be held. [34] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [36] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [36] Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2508 contract fell 0.12% to 17,085 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 1,037 lots to 94,800 lots. [38] - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the transaction was average. [38] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with previous data. [39] - The average operating rate of three - province primary lead smelters decreased last week. [39] Logic Analysis - The supply of lead is difficult to increase, and consumption is improving. Short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range. [41] - Arbitrage: Sell put options. [44] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [41] Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2508 fell by 90 yuan to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,141 lots. [43] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the premiums of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained unchanged. [43] Relevant Information - The export of Philippine nickel ore to Indonesia is expected to increase significantly. [45] - GreenMe has solved the problem of refining low - grade nickel ore. [45] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, nickel prices show a volatile trend. [44][45] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for nickel is provided in the report. Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 fell by 30 yuan to 12,715 yuan/ton, and the index reduced positions by 5,271 lots. [47] - Spot: The prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given. [47] Relevant Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved Hongwang Holdings as a delivery warehouse for stainless - steel futures. [48] - The US imposed tariffs on imports from multiple countries and regions. [48][49][50] Logic Analysis - Affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, stainless - steel prices are expected to be weak. [51][53] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - sell when the price is high after the macro - sentiment fades. [54] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [55] - Options: Consider the strategy of selling call options after the price rebounds. [52] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 3.27% to 8,695 yuan/ton. [57] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. [58] Relevant Information - A project in Nanchang is expected to increase the total production capacity by 23,679.23 t/a. [59] Logic Analysis - In July, the production of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons. If leading enterprises do not resume production, the supply and demand will be basically balanced. The price has strengthened recently, and the inventory has shifted from factories to traders. [60] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Bullish in the short - term. [61] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [63] - Options: Exit the short position of Si2509 - C - 8500. [63] Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 41,765 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. [64] - Spot: The average price of some polysilicon products decreased. [64] Relevant Information - The price of domestic photovoltaic silicon wafers increased, and the transaction of battery cells began. [65] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon market has many rumors, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 37,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton. [65] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Long - position holders can reduce positions and participate in short - term trading with a light position. [66] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [66] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [66] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose by 2,380 yuan to 66,480 yuan/ton, the index increased positions by 34,081 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 399 tons to 11,204 tons. [67] - Spot: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. [67] Relevant Information - As of the end of June 2025, the number of new - energy vehicles in China increased significantly. [69] - Panasonic postponed the production plan of its battery factory in the US. [69] Logic Analysis - Affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, lithium carbonate prices rose sharply in the short - term and are expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for the opportunity to short on the right - hand side. [71] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [72] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options. [73]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable domestically, with China's economic growth projected to exceed 35 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the total economic output expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year [6] - The aluminum industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, leading to a potential accumulation of inventory in July, although low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply may provide some support for aluminum prices [11] - The report highlights the impact of overseas tariff disturbances, particularly from the U.S., which may affect the aluminum market dynamics [6] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 11, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,602.0 per ton, up $4.5 from the previous week, reflecting a 0.2% increase week-on-week and a 124.0 increase year-on-year [15] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,695.0 yuan per ton, up 60.0 yuan from the previous week, marking a 0.3% increase week-on-week and a 595.0 increase year-on-year [22] 2. Production - In June 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons month-on-month and a decrease of 28,000 tons year-on-year [48] - The production of alumina in June 2025 was 7.258 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month-on-month, but an increase of 269,000 tons year-on-year [48] 3. Inventory - As of July 10, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a shift from accumulation to destocking [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 [5] 5. Demand - The downstream sectors are experiencing a pronounced off-season atmosphere, with aluminum processing rates remaining low, and the demand for aluminum rods is under pressure due to high temperatures and seasonal factors [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina futures are expected to be short - term bullish and oscillatory, targeting the key resistance level of 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, the expected continuous release of supply will cap the price. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [14][135]. - Shanghai Aluminium (SHFE Aluminium) is expected to oscillate within the price range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The current industrial fundamentals mainly support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [15][136]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate, restricted by cost support and weak demand [15][136]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Market Overview - **Macro**: Trump announced on July 9 that a 50% tariff would be imposed on all imported copper starting from August 1. Also, on July 7, he declared tariffs on imported products from 14 countries starting from August 1 and postponed the implementation of the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1 [8]. - **Spot**: As of July 11, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,142.39 yuan/ton, up 26.64 yuan/ton from July 4. As of July 4, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from June 27 [8]. - **Supply**: As of July 10, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 79.92%, down 0.05% from the previous week. China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [8]. - **Demand**: As of July 3, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.6%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The operating rates of the aluminum plate and strip and aluminum cable sectors decreased, while others remained stable [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,850 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from July 3. As of July 9, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,514 yuan/ton, up about 44 yuan/ton from July 3, mainly due to the increase in alumina price. The average industry profit has narrowed to about 4,145 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 466,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from July 3. The aluminum rod inventory was 160,000 tons, up 6,500 tons from July 3 [10]. - **Overall Market Performance**: This week, alumina, SHFE Aluminium, and aluminum alloy all showed a bullish and oscillatory trend [13]. 2. Alumina Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Spot - The average domestic alumina spot price as of July 11 was 3,142.39 yuan/ton, up 26.64 yuan/ton from July 4. Tightening spot circulation and spot discount transactions led to the rebound of the average spot price [27]. 2.1 Supply - As of July 10, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 79.92%, down 0.05% from the previous week. There is an expectation of future supply surplus due to capacity restart and new capacity release [31]. 2.1 Import and Export - As of July 10, the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton, up nearly 5 US dollars/ton from July 3. The alumina import and export windows are both closed [33]. 2.1 Cost and Profit - As of July 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,850 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from July 3. The average industry profit has expanded to about 284 yuan/ton [36]. 2.1 Inventory - As of July 10, the alumina port inventory was 26,000 tons, down 17,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a low level in the past four years. In May 2025, China's alumina imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [40]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cost - As of July 11, the pit - mouth coal price in Ordos decreased slightly, while those in Yulin, Datong, and the FOB coal price at Qinhuangdao Port increased. The single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in July dropped to about 0.38 yuan/kWh. The pre - baked anode price in major production areas remained stable this week [48][52]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - As of July 9, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,514 yuan/ton, up about 44 yuan/ton from July 3. The average industry profit has narrowed to about 4,145 yuan/ton [57]. 2.3 Supply - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. As of the end of June, the operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity was 96%, unchanged from the previous month and 0.32% higher than the same period last year [59]. 2.4 Spot - As of July 11, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 20,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from July 4 [62]. 2.6 Demand - As of July 3, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.6%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in June was 40.1%, remaining below the boom - bust line and down 8.8% from May [69]. 2.7 Inventory - As of July 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 466,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from July 3. The aluminum rod inventory was 160,000 tons, up 6,500 tons from July 3. The low inventory of aluminum ingots still supports the price, but the support may weaken during the off - season [73]. 2.8 Futures Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,485 tons, up 4,095 tons from July 4. From July 4 to July 10, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 38,750 tons to 395,725 tons [77]. 2.9 Import and Export - The import profit window for aluminum ingots is closed. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year, while imports increased year - on - year [79][84]. 2.11 Terminal - The real estate market is slowly recovering. From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 238,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1% compared with the same period in July last year. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market were 135,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21% [88][90]. 4. Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis 4.1 Raw Materials - The price of scrap aluminum has been high. The aluminum scrap - refined aluminum price difference shows certain characteristics [96][98]. 4.2 ADC12 Cost and Profit - The cost of ADC12 aluminum alloy has increased, and the profit situation is affected [100][101]. 4.3 ADC12 Spot Price - The average price of ADC12 shows certain trends, and there are differences in prices in different regions [103][106]. 4.4 Overseas ADC12 Price and Import Profit - The overseas ADC12 price and import profit situation have changed [108][111]. 4.5 Supply - The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy have certain characteristics [113][115]. 4.6 Demand - The demand for cast aluminum alloy has obvious seasonality, and the automotive industry is the main demand end [117][120]. 4.7 Inventory - The inventory of aluminum alloy shows certain trends [128]. 4.8 Supply - Demand Balance - The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy shows certain characteristics [130][131]. 3. Future Outlook - **Alumina**: In the short term, alumina futures are expected to be bullish and oscillatory, targeting 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, the expected increase in supply will cap the price. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [135]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE Aluminium is expected to oscillate within the range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The current industrial fundamentals mainly support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [136]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate, restricted by cost support and weak demand [136].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The previous optimistic sentiment in the market has cooled down, and the market is gradually returning to the reality of fundamentals [6]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals may be in a situation of a slight increase in supply and weak demand. Affected by the off - season and trade uncertainties, the upward space of Shanghai Aluminum may be limited [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The fundamentals may be in a situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost - support logic is relatively strong, and the short - term upward space may be limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated strongly, up 0.29% to 20,695 yuan/ton; Alumina first rose and then fell, up 3.08% to 3,117 yuan/ton; Cast Aluminum rose 0.23% to 19,930 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and demand is stable; Electrolytic Aluminum supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is weak; Cast Aluminum Alloy supply and demand are both weak [6][8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Lightly short the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum and Alumina, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of July 11, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20,835 yuan/ton, up 0.1%; LME Aluminum closed at 2,606 US dollars/ton, up 0.02%; Alumina futures were at 3,195 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; Cast Aluminum Alloy was at 19,930 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 8.01, up 0.17; The aluminum - zinc spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; The copper - aluminum spread was 57,735 yuan/ton, down 1,360 yuan/ton [12][23]. - **Spot Prices**: As of July 11, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 1.94%; in Shanxi was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 2.11%; in Guiyang was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 2.11%; The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was flat; The A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, with a spot discount of 70 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from last week [26][30]. - **Positions**: As of July 11, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 691,850 lots, up 0.12%; The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 9,660 lots [18]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 395,725 tons, up 10.86%; SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 103,197 tons, up 9.05%; Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 412,000 tons, down 2.83%. As of July 11, SHFE electrolytic aluminum warrants were 51,980 tons, up 35.07%; LME electrolytic aluminum registered warrants were 387,500 tons, up 11.11% [34]. - **Raw Materials**: In May 2025, alumina production was 7.488 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; The cumulative production from January to May was 37.401 million tons, up 9.5% year - on - year. The total import of bauxite increased, and the port inventory rebounded. The domestic bauxite nine - port inventory was 24.54 million tons, up 50,000 tons month - on - month [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. In May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 159,700.92 tons, up 3.7% year - on - year; the export was 72.44 tons, up 34.3% year - on - year [43]. - **Production and Trade**: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.828 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; the cumulative output from January to May was 18.59 million tons, up 4% year - on - year. The import of electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year. The production of aluminum products, cast aluminum alloy, and aluminum alloy all increased, with different trends in imports and exports [49][53][57][60][63]. - **Downstream Markets**: In May 2025, the real estate market declined slightly, with the real estate development climate index at 93.72, down 0.13 from last month. Infrastructure investment was positive, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [66][69]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price is expected to decline slightly with fluctuations in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of restricted supply, the high industry profit of electrolytic aluminium is not a factor limiting the rise of aluminium prices. In the short - term, the further rise of aluminium prices requires the resonance of macro - economic improvement and stronger micro - consumption. Attention should be paid to the price increase driven by consumption stronger than expected. For alumina, the cost is stable, but the expected supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged. For aluminium alloy, the cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [3][4][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminium - Spot: On July 10, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminium price was 20,820 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminium price was 20,710 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminium price was 20,800 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On July 10, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 20,520 yuan/ton, closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 138,934 lots, an increase of 36,365 lots, and the position was 255,633 lots, an increase of 5,534 lots [1] - Inventory: As of July 10, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 466,000 tons, and the LME aluminium inventory was 395,725 tons, an increase of 4,925 tons from the previous trading day [1] 3.1.2 Alumina - Spot: On July 10, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,130 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,120 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,225 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton [2] - Futures: On July 10, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,133 yuan/ton, closed at 3,208 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton or 2.75% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 513,954 lots, an increase of 162,240 lots, and the position was 244,546 lots, a decrease of 4,110 lots [2] 3.1.3 Aluminium Alloy - Price: On July 10, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminium was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminium was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 31,400 tons, a weekly increase of 2,500 tons; the in - factory inventory was 70,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,900 tons; the total inventory was 102,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,400 tons [2] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminium - The smelting profit has expanded to 4,150 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the short - term, wait for the callback caused by inventory accumulation, macro - factors and tariff impacts to find long - term opportunities to layout long positions. In the long - term, pay attention to the price increase driven by consumption stronger than expected [3] 3.2.2 Alumina - The cost is stable, and the smelting profit still exists. The expected supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged. The monthly supply - demand balance has a surplus of about 200,000 tons, but the spot market does not show an obvious surplus. The delivery risk still exists [4][5] 3.2.3 Aluminium Alloy - It is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is still tight, and the cost side supports the price. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] 3.3 Strategies 3.3.1 Single - sided - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 3.3.2 Arbitrage - Shanghai aluminium positive arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: The center of gravity is moving upward [1] - Alumina: Range-bound trading [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventories in both the futures and spot markets [1] - It also provides information on the trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, with values of 0, 1, and 0 respectively [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum** - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,700 yuan, up 185 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume is 138,934 lots, and the open interest is 255,633 lots [1] - **Alumina** - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 3,208 yuan, up 78 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume is 513,954 lots, and the open interest is 244,546 lots [1] - **Aluminum Alloy** - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 19,940 yuan, up 110 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume is 4,446 lots, and the open interest is 8,813 lots [1] Spot Market - **Aluminum** - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 455,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss is 4,145.59 yuan [1] - **Alumina** - The average domestic alumina price is 3,163 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The alumina enterprise profit and loss in Shanxi is 215 yuan [1] - **Aluminum Alloy** - The ADC12 theoretical profit is -407 yuan [1] - The three - place inventory total is 25,116 tons [1] Other Information - In the international trade news, Myanmar is seeking to cut tariffs with the US before the August "deadline", with the proposed tariff range from 0 - 10% for Myanmar on US goods and 10 - 20% for the US on Myanmar goods [3] - The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-10 氧化铝的过剩需要等待从量变到质变 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20660元/吨，较上一交易日上涨60元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日持平于-60元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20550元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨10元/ 吨至-160元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20640元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日持平于-70元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-09日沪铝主力合约开于20510元/吨，收于20515元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨20元/ 吨，涨幅0.1%，最高价达20575元/吨，最低价达到20455元/吨。全天交易日成交102569手，较上一交易日减少 7014手，全天交易日持仓250099手，较上一交易日减少4627手。 库存方面，截止2025-07-07，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存47.8万吨。截止2025-07-09，LME铝库存390800 吨，较前一交易日增加6450吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-09 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3110元/吨，山东价格录得3100元/吨，广西 ...