1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating at high levels. The shortage of scrap aluminum supply persists, providing some support for prices, but the weakening demand limits further price increases. In the short term, prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation range [6]. - From the micro - fundamental perspective, as of December 14, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.07 million tons to 13.12 million tons compared to the previous week, with high - level visible inventory. The automotive market demand is under pressure, with the retail volume of the national passenger car market from December 1 - 7 showing a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 8% [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The trading volume, open interest, and capital precipitation data are presented graphically, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - The calculation of the inter - period spread cost of casting aluminum alloy involves various fees such as transaction fees, storage fees, and capital costs. For the AD2601 - AD2602 spread on December 12, 2025, the fixed cost is 8.82 yuan/ton, and the floating cost is 90.89 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 100 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The spot - futures arbitrage cost calculation of casting aluminum alloy takes into account factors such as spot price, storage fees, capital costs, and trading fees. Based on the current situation, the spot price is 21,200 yuan/ton, and the calculated warehouse receipt cost is 22,140.6 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Import volume is also at a high level, with relatively fast year - on - year growth [16][20]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has widened. The regional spread of casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly start - up rate of recycled aluminum is flat, while the monthly start - up rate has declined. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy has its own distribution characteristics by region. Currently, the ADC12 cost is mainly composed of scrap aluminum and is estimated to be in a loss state [30][40][47]. - The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has slightly increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The import window for casting aluminum alloy is currently closed [52][57]. - For recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are provided, along with their respective proportion distribution by region [60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel - powered vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which is transmitted to the die - casting consumption market [66].

宏观事件落地，铝价调整 铝周报 2025/12/13 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止11月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4422.5万吨；11月电解铝产量环比减少2.8%%，同比增长1.5%。 11月国内 铝水比例环比下降0.5%。预计12月铝水比例小幅下降。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTELL数据，本周四铝锭库存录得57.9万吨，较上周四下降1.4万吨。保税区库存录得6.4万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨。本周 四铝棒库存合计12.9万吨，较上周四下降0.6万吨。LME全球铝库存录得51.9万吨，较上周减少0.6万吨。国内华东铝锭现货基差走强，LME市 场Cash/3M贴水扩大。 ◆ 进出口：2025年10月中国原铝进口量为24.8万吨，环比增加1.8%，同比增加42.2%。1-10月累计进口量为2 ...

Group 1 - The company, Jiaozuo Wanfang, announced that its 10th eighth board meeting will be held on December 12, 2025, to discuss related party transactions with Zhejiang Jinliantong International Trade Co., Ltd. [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue composition is entirely from the aluminum industry, accounting for 100.0% [1] - As of the report date, Jiaozuo Wanfang has a market capitalization of 11.7 billion yuan [1]

新疆众和公告称，2025年12月12日，公司第十届董事会2025年第十一次临时会议通过相关议案，拟开展 2026年度套期保值及远期外汇业务，尚需股东会审议。套期保值业务涉及氧化铝、铝，预计任一交易日 持有的最高合约价值不超150.42亿元，保证金占用最高额度不超18.05亿元；远期外汇业务涉及美元、欧 元等，预计未来12个月内任一交易日持有的最高合约价值不超7亿美元、2000万欧元或其他等值外币。 公司将采取系列风控措施，并按会计准则进行会计处理。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The electrolytic aluminum market shows a bottom - up price trend. Due to transportation disruptions in Xinjiang, reduced arrivals, and traders' reluctance to sell, along with rigid downstream demand, the spot discount has been significantly absorbed. Social inventory has slightly declined, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction at the end of the year. The low inventory level has little negative impact on prices. Optimism remains about future consumption, with unchanged interest - rate cut expectations and unreflected re - inflation. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the economic meeting and the realization of the pre - Spring Festival social inventory reduction expectation. Overseas liquidity risks need to be vigilant [6]. - The alumina market lacks positive factors. The domestic supply has not significantly decreased, the supply surplus pressure persists, social inventory continues to increase, and the warehouse receipt pressure cannot be substantially alleviated. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material inventory and weak procurement willingness. The near - month contract is at a significant discount to the far - month contract. The cost support needs to be tested as bauxite prices remain stable and no large - scale production cuts have been triggered [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,890 yuan/ton, a change of 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 60 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 21,820 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed by 70 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,780 yuan/ton, a change of 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount has changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 165 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Aluminum Futures - On December 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,990 yuan/ton, closed at 21,970 yuan/ton, a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 22,110 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 21,865 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 189,881 lots, and the holding volume was 294,576 lots [2]. 3.3 Inventory - As of December 11, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 584,000 tons, a change of - 11,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 69,410 tons, a change of 823 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 518,750 tons, a change of - 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.4 Alumina Spot Price - On December 11, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,725 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,815 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,875 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,880 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Alumina Futures - On December 11, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,482 yuan/ton, closed at 2,469 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of - 1.40%, with a maximum price of 2,509 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,462 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 242,299 lots, and the holding volume was 257,111 lots [2]. 3.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 11, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 21,100 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. 3.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,100 tons [4]. 3.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,245 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 145 yuan/ton [5].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant price divergence between alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with alumina prices dropping sharply while electrolytic aluminum prices are on the rise, creating a "ice and fire" scenario in the market [1][8][13]. Price Trends - As of December 10, the main contract for alumina futures fell below 2500 yuan/ton, marking a significant decline from last year's peak of 5500 yuan/ton, representing a "halving" in price [1][4]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum has increased, with the average price reaching 22,100 yuan/ton as of December 5, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.60% [6][10]. Cost Dynamics - The production cost for electrolytic aluminum is heavily influenced by alumina prices, which have decreased by over 3000 yuan/ton compared to last year, thus improving profit margins for electrolytic aluminum producers [4][5]. - The production of 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum requires 1.92 tons of alumina, 0.46 tons of anode, and 13,500 kWh of electricity, which together account for 90% of the production cost [5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of alumina is expected to remain high, with a projected production of 74.46 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, while electrolytic aluminum production is only expected to grow by 2% [9][10]. - The disparity in supply growth between alumina and electrolytic aluminum is leading to a continued decline in alumina prices, while electrolytic aluminum prices are supported by tight supply conditions and strong demand [9][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the price divergence between alumina and electrolytic aluminum will continue, with alumina prices likely to remain under pressure due to oversupply, while electrolytic aluminum prices may see further increases driven by demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [13][14]. - The expected supply surplus for alumina could exceed 10 million tons, while the electrolytic aluminum market may face tighter conditions in certain months due to production constraints [13][14].

Macro - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the third cut in 2025, with expectations of only one more cut in 2026 [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices saw a short-term surge, and spot gold prices increased by $20 [1] Industry - Micron's NAND prices surged nearly 50% in a single month, with storage module manufacturers indicating that NAND shortages will become widespread after Q2 next year [2] - The rapid increase in NAND prices is attributed to unprecedented AI demand consuming storage chip capacity, potentially leading to a new round of price hikes in consumer electronics [2] - There are rumors of interest subsidy policies in the real estate sector, with Vanke's stock hitting the limit up, and several cities already implementing such policies [4] - If the interest subsidy policy is enacted, it could effectively reduce loan pressure for homebuyers and stimulate potential housing demand [4] Company - Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye announced mid-term dividend distributions totaling approximately 40 billion yuan, with Moutai distributing on December 19 and Wuliangye on December 18 [3] - The high dividends from leading liquor companies reflect their robust financial health and commitment to rewarding investors, although high dividends should be considered alongside other investment value metrics [3]

Group 1: Company Performance - On December 10, Falunsheng (000890) experienced a significant surge in stock price, with a large order of 38,500 shares executed in just three minutes, amounting to approximately 18.65 million yuan, representing nearly 20% of the total trading volume for the day [1][2] - The stock price rose by 8.74% during the closing auction phase, with an increase exceeding 10% at one point [1][2] - Investors expressed confusion regarding the sudden price increase, with many questioning the reasons behind it in online forums [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply and structural demand resilience, as domestic production capacity is capped at 45 million tons, with new capacity additions being extremely limited [6][7] - Recent breakthroughs in aluminum metal battery technology by Tianjin University, specifically the development of a low-corrosive "organic dichloride" electrolyte, may enhance the application of aluminum products in the new energy sector [4][6] - The average increase in aluminum stocks this year has been 48.13%, with several stocks doubling in value, indicating strong market performance [7][10] Group 3: Stock Valuation - As of December 10, 11 aluminum-related stocks have a rolling price-to-earnings ratio below 20, indicating potential undervaluation in the sector [7][8] - Ming Tai Aluminum, with a rolling P/E ratio of 10, is positioned as a leader in aluminum processing and recycling applications, focusing on new energy battery materials and automotive lightweight aluminum [8] Group 4: Financing Trends - Data shows that since December, 10 aluminum stocks have seen net financing purchases exceeding 10 million yuan, with four stocks surpassing 100 million yuan in net purchases [10]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 盘面价格下跌氧化铝仓单成交平平 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21880元/吨，较上一交易日变化-40元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-90元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21740元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-230元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21770元/吨，较上一交易日变化-40元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-200元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-09日沪铝主力合约开于22210元/吨，收于--元/吨，较上一交易日变化-370元/吨，最高价 达22210元/吨，最低价达到21735元/吨。全天交易日成交255735手，全天交易日持仓195726手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-09，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.1万吨，仓单库存67863 吨，较上一交易日变化127吨，LME铝库存523300吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-09SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2790元/吨，山东价格录得2740元/吨，河南价格录得 2820元/ ...

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