Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [9][42]. Core Insights - Recent data indicates a month-on-month increase in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 44 cities rising by 14% week-on-week [1][12]. - The inventory of new homes in 21 key cities has slightly decreased by 0.1% week-on-week, while the second-hand housing listings have increased by 0.1% compared to the previous week [1][35]. - The report highlights a recovery in transaction volumes and prices in key urban markets, suggesting potential valuation recovery for companies with resources in these areas [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the real estate development sector rose by 0.71% [2]. - The report notes a year-to-date decline of 6% in new housing transaction area across 44 cities, contrasting with a 14% increase in second-hand housing transactions [1][12]. Key Companies and Dynamics - Recommended companies include: - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) with a target price of 7.42 - Greentown China (3900 HK) with a target price of 13.69 - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 19.08 - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) with a target price of 6.40 - Greentown Services (2869 HK) with a target price of 6.56 - Wanwu Cloud (2602 HK) with a target price of 32.29 - Link REIT (823 HK) with a target price of 50.59 - Jianfa International Group (1908 HK) with a target price of 21.60 - China Resources Land (1109 HK) with a target price of 36.45 - New Town Holdings (601155 CH) with a target price of 18.05 - China Resources Mixc Life (1209 HK) with a target price of 46.60 [3][42]. Inventory and Sales Trends - As of September 14, the inventory of new homes in 21 cities has decreased by 0.1% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 13% [32]. - The second-hand housing listings in 20 sample cities have increased to approximately 2.484 million units, up 0.1% from the previous week and 8.7% from the end of last year [35][1]. Performance Metrics - The report indicates that the new housing sales area in 44 cities has shown a year-on-year increase of 8% from September 1 to 19, with first-tier cities seeing a 22% increase [12]. - The second-hand housing sales area in 22 cities has increased by 26% year-on-year, with first-tier cities up 35% [22].

2025年，沈阳土拍市场热度不减，但一个鲜明的"矛盾"正在浮现：土地供应总量持续收缩，尤其是低容积率地块——几乎成了楼市中的"稀缺资产"。 在这一背景下，《沈阳市国土空间总体规划（2021—2035年）》所强调的"强化节约集约用地"原则，正在从政策文本走向现实战场。我们清晰看到一个不 可逆的趋势：沈阳的纯洋房社区，正在告别高供应时代，走向"限量周期"。 去化周期锐减 纯洋房社区或成"限量款" 需要注意的是，伴随洋房销量企稳的，是在售楼盘数量的锐减。数据显示，近五年间，沈阳有洋房在售的项目数量下降67%。此外，新一批预售项目中， 洋房占比依旧低迷，而像昭华里这样占地16万方的低密大盘、纯粹意义上的"纯洋房社区"几乎已成绝版。 与此同时，改善型需求却在持续增长。数据显示，楼市进入深度调整以来，洋房销量始终十分稳健，甚至在2022年开始销量出现小幅回升的局面，可以 说，在市场"存量高企"的大背景下，洋房的供需关系正在发生明显变化。一边是高企的商品房存量，一边是稳健甚至小幅回升的洋房去化。这套"反差逻 辑"背后，折射的正是当前楼市的核心命题：沈阳缺的不是房子，是真正的好房子。 越稀缺樾升级 "限量款"的自我修养 当然 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial assistance provided by Shenzhen Metro Group (深铁) to Vanke (万科) is substantial, yet Vanke continues to face significant challenges despite this support [2][3][6]. Financial Assistance and Management - Shenzhen Metro has provided Vanke with 26 billion yuan in loans for 2025, along with ongoing credit guarantees and asset acquisitions, positioning itself as a supportive major shareholder [2]. - An investor suggested that Shenzhen Metro should engage in market value management for Vanke, given the low price-to-book ratio and the high premium paid during the initial acquisition [3]. - Despite the financial support, Shenzhen Metro's ability to manage Vanke's market value is limited due to its own financial constraints [3][6]. Business Performance - Shenzhen Metro's subway operations generated 5.592 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of the year, a 16.34% increase year-on-year, but incurred costs of 6.86 billion yuan, leading to a gross loss [4]. - The real estate development segment, which historically supported the subway operations, saw a 63% decline in revenue to 1.625 billion yuan, dropping its contribution to total revenue below 30% for the first time [4][6]. - Overall, Shenzhen Metro reported a net loss of 3.3 billion yuan in the first half of the year, primarily due to the underperformance of its real estate segment and losses from Vanke [6]. Cash Flow and Financing - Cash flow from sales decreased by 13% year-on-year, indicating a decline in overall cash inflow despite increased subway ridership [5]. - Shenzhen Metro's fixed asset investment reached 44.282 billion yuan, a 34% increase, reflecting ongoing commitments to subway construction [6]. - The company received 7.6 billion yuan in government subsidies in 2023 and 9.8 billion yuan in 2024, which significantly bolstered its capital reserves [7][9]. Debt and Financial Structure - Shenzhen Metro's total liabilities amounted to approximately 479.62 billion yuan, with non-current liabilities at 355.04 billion yuan [10]. - The company increased its external borrowing to 20.3 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a significant rise compared to the previous year [11]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of Shenzhen Metro's financial support for Vanke, as the company holds 27.18% of Vanke's shares, and further increases could trigger mandatory takeover obligations [11][12]. Long-term Outlook - Despite current challenges, Vanke remains a long-term investment for Shenzhen Metro, with the potential for recovery as the real estate market stabilizes [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3][8]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant recovery in new and second-hand housing transactions in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen following recent policy adjustments [6][8]. - The report notes that the Shanghai property tax policy has been optimized, with first-time homebuyers exempt from property tax and second-home buyers benefiting from a threshold on taxable area [5]. - The report anticipates a new round of policy announcements by the end of September, which could further influence the real estate market [8]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - Over the past month, the real estate sector has shown a relative return of -1% compared to the CSI 300 index, while absolute returns were 7% [4]. - In the last 12 months, the absolute return for the real estate sector was 41% [4]. Transaction Data - In Beijing, the average daily transaction for second-hand homes increased by 58% year-on-year, while new homes saw an 18% increase [6]. - Shanghai experienced a 72% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions and an 86% increase in new home transactions [6]. - Shenzhen reported a 121% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions and a 23% increase in new home transactions [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and land reserves in core cities, such as Poly Developments [8]. - It also recommends monitoring leading intermediary firms that may benefit from an increase in second-hand home transactions, such as Wo Ai Wo Jia [8].

数据来源：聚源 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 房地产 2025 年 09 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 《新房上海持续领涨，二手房价格同 比降幅缩小 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.9.16 《8 月销售降幅扩大，宽松政策后一线 新 房 成 交 回 暖 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.9.15 《新房成交面积同环比下降，主动适 应城市发展阶段新变化—行业周报》 -2025.9.14 新房成交面积同环比增长，1-8 月房地产开发投资同 比下降 ——行业周报 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房成交面积同环比增长，1-8 月房地产开发投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed those seen in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends [4] - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier cities, two-thirds of second-tier cities, and a very limited number of third-tier cities, which has been validated by recent sales performance [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and the management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [4] Summary by Sections National Housing Price Trends - In August, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing respective month-on-month changes of -0.1%, -0.3%, and -0.4% [11] - The second-hand housing market also saw a decline, with prices dropping 0.6% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year [11] - Notably, first-tier cities have experienced greater month-on-month declines since May, indicating a recent trend of correction in core urban areas [11] Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 0.7% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.16 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [14] - New home transaction volume in 30 cities reached 1.541 million square meters, up 12.9% week-on-week and 16.2% year-on-year [2] - The total transaction volume for new homes in the first 38 weeks of the year is 70.116 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - In the same week, 14 sample cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction area of 1.953 million square meters, marking a 0.7% increase week-on-week and a 55.0% increase year-on-year [3] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for second-hand homes is 76.157 million square meters, showing a year-on-year growth of 17.4% [3] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week of September 15-21, nine credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 8.020 billion yuan, which is a 14.1 billion yuan increase from the previous week [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch event for the Minghu Yin project, a collaboration between Jinan Energy Group and Poly Real Estate, emphasizes the integration of historical culture and contemporary aesthetics in the development, marking a significant milestone in the region's real estate landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Minghu Yin project is designed to embody the philosophy of "building good houses and creating a happy life," and has been recognized as a high-quality residential pilot project in Shandong Province [4]. - The project leverages the comprehensive energy advantages of Jinan Energy Group, featuring innovative elements such as a "combined heating and cooling" demonstration, a compliant drone delivery network, and a 24-hour smart kitchen system [4][22]. - Minghu Yin is positioned as a rare gem in the Daming Lake area, reflecting the cultural heritage of the region while aiming to create an ideal living environment characterized by elegance and richness [5]. Group 2: Architectural and Design Aspects - The project is the first of its kind in the "Yin" series in the Qilu region, showcasing the architectural philosophy of renowned designers and integrating cultural elements through artistic performances [7]. - The design incorporates eight scenic views of Daming Lake, with a layout of eight asymmetrical buildings that ensure optimal lake views from each unit [16]. - The development includes a variety of community spaces, such as an art club and interactive areas, aimed at enhancing the quality of life for residents and fostering a sense of community [19]. Group 3: Community and Lifestyle - The project aims to transform the living experience in Jinan by providing a low-density residential environment that promotes a healthy lifestyle and community engagement [19][22]. - Minghu Yin is designed to cater to diverse age groups, offering facilities that encourage social interaction and cultural activities, thereby enriching the living experience for all residents [19].

最近楼市出了个实在变化——外资买房的付款流程，终于不那么绕了。以前常听境外朋友吐槽，签了合同付不了钱，开发商收不到款就不备案，彻底卡死。 如今政策优化，凭购房合同就能先付款，后续再补备案，流程顺了不少。作为二十年财经老记者，今天帮主就和大家聊聊，外资这股"活水"进来，楼市到底 怎么变？ 更重要的是，外资逻辑早变了。以前可能炒住宅差价，现在像施罗德这类巨头，30亿砸向长三角写字楼和物流仓，明显奔着长期收租。政策也取消外资买非 自用商业地产的限制，鼓励他们做运营、搞实业，而非短期炒作。 那么房价会涨吗？帮主判断：核心城市优质地段会更抢手，但普涨不可能。比如广州某楼盘近七成买家是香港人，好房子本身就不缺买家，外资进来只是让 稀缺资产更值钱。三四线库存压力大，外资根本不会去。 从中长线投资看，这次政策传递出一个清晰信号：楼市调控更精准。对外资是"开门迎客"但不"开门揖盗"，服务真实需求，严防投机炒作。普通人不必被消 息带节奏，核心城市好地段、好产品永远有市场，但指望买房暴富的时代早已过去。 外资进场像是添了把柴，不是来救火的。咱们普通人买房，关键还是看清自己的需求。记住帮主的话：稀缺的永远是核心价值，不是炒作概念。稳 ...

2025 年 09 月 21 日 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× quzheng@swsresearch.com 8 月投资销售继续走弱，上海房产税优化调整 -地产及物管行业周报（2025/09/13-2025/09/19） 本期投资提示: 万宏源研究微信服务 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 册 寂寞诗 地产行业数据：一手房成交周环比提升，二手房成交周环比下降。上周(9.13-9.19)34 个 重点城市新房合计成交 208.3 万平米,环比+5.4%,其中,一二线环比+5.2%,三四线 环比+8.1%。9 月(9.1-9.19)34 城一手房成交同比+17.6%, 较 8 月+25.5%。其中, 一 二线同比+22.4%，三四线同比-23.9%，分别较 8 月+25.6pct 和+23.8pct。 上周 13 城 二手房合计成交 109.6 万平米,环比-6.1%; 9 月累计成交同比+31.3%,较 8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][31]. Core Views - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, but the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline expected to be introduced [4][31]. - The report highlights that the real estate market in core cities is at a turning point and will lead the recovery. It emphasizes the potential of new policies to create new products, pricing, and models that will improve the real estate market in core cities [4][31]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - For the week of September 13-19, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.083 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 5.4%. The transaction volume for first and second-tier cities increased by 5.2%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 8.1% [5][6]. - In September 2025, the cumulative transaction volume for new housing in 34 cities was 5.605 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [6][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - For the week of September 13-19, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.096 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.1%. However, the cumulative transaction volume for September showed a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [12][31]. New Housing Inventory - In the week of September 13-19, 2025, 15 key cities had a total of 1.07 million square meters of new housing launched, with a total available residential area of 89.666 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [21][31]. Policy and News Tracking Real Estate Industry - The State Council has officially implemented the "Housing Rental Regulations," encouraging multiple channels to increase rental housing supply. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to August 2025, real estate investment totaled 603.09 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year [31][32]. - Shanghai has optimized its property tax pilot policy, temporarily exempting eligible residents from property tax for their first home and second homes under certain conditions [31][32]. Property Management Industry - The "Housing Rental Regulations" emphasize the role of property management in coordinating supervision and promoting the transition of the property industry from traditional management to "rental + service" [35][36].