有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜尾盘大幅走高，上涨 3.6%至 8897 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.01%至 72490 元/吨，预计国内开盘将大幅拉升；国内现货进口窗口打开。宏观方面，美关税 | | | | | 阴影下，海外金融市场再次陷入巨震，有色一度表现偏弱，不过在特朗普宣布暂停部分 国家对等关税延后实施 90 天后，美股快速冲高，并带动商品市场情绪大幅回暖。国内 | | | | | 方面，关注金融市场表现，股市是国内短线情绪风向标。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 | | | | 铜 | 1525 吨至 211925 吨；SHFE 铜下降 11375 吨至 97393 吨；BC 铜下降 646 吨至 21907 | | | | | 吨。需求方面，高铜价风险释放并回稳，下游预计存在积极补库动作。美政府未能顶住 | | | | | 金融市场大幅波动压力，宣布暂缓实施，虽然中国未能豁免，但美此轮政策弱点及颓势 | | | | | 开始显现，这也令市场 ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月8日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 278800 | 290000 | -11200 | -3.86% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 250 | 250 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 279300 | 290500 | -11200 | -3.86% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 254.00 | 240.96 | 13.04 | 5.41% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -29032.51 | -29301.11 | 268.60 | 0.92% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.83 | 7.84 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff war increases the probability of a global economic recession, leading to a short - term slump in major commodity prices. Although the long - term demand logic for copper remains, the tariff risk has not been fully released, and the continuous decline in copper prices may change the previous bull - market characteristics [1] - For aluminum, the overall ore supply is improving, but there are still short - term downward risks. It is recommended to strengthen observation and pay attention to policy changes [3] - The US tariff policy may suppress future nickel demand, and with the continuous surplus of pure nickel, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The US tariff policy causes a callback in tin prices, but the recovery of the downstream semiconductor industry may support demand, and price fluctuations are expected to increase. It is recommended to build positions at low prices [6] Group 3: Summary by Metal Type Copper - As of April 7, the main 05 contract of Shanghai copper closed at 73,640 yuan/ton, down 7.01%. The US tariff war led to a sharp decline in copper prices, but the long - term demand logic remains, and it may stabilize after falling to 73,000 yuan. However, tariff risks still exist [1] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices plummeted, and the buying sentiment was weak with limited transactions [7] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9,136 tons to 116,824 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 575 tons to 210,225 tons [19] Aluminum - As of April 7, the main 05 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,685 yuan/ton, down 3.67%. The overall ore supply is improving, the alumina production capacity is decreasing, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is flat. The downstream demand is weak, and there are short - term downward risks [2][3] - In the spot market, the spot aluminum price followed the decline of the futures price. The trading atmosphere was dull in the afternoon [8] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5,455 tons to 126,177 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,050 tons to 454,700 tons [19] Nickel - As of April 7, the main 05 contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 118,640 yuan/ton, down 7.51%. The macro - environment is unfavorable, the nickel ore supply is tight, the refined nickel is in surplus, and the nickel iron price is strong. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5] - In the spot market, the purchasing enthusiasm increased as the nickel price fell [16] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons to 27,166 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,908 tons to 202,308 tons [19] Tin - As of April 7, the main 05 contract of Shanghai tin closed at 267,800 yuan/ton, down 8.75%. The spot supply is tight, the semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and price fluctuations are expected to increase. It is recommended to build positions at low prices [6] - In the spot market, there was a strong fear of falling, with mostly on - lookers and only a small number of traders buying at low prices [17] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 133 tons to 9,641 tons, and LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 2,990 tons [19] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead, Alumina) - **Zinc**: Spot zinc prices fell, the market trading was dull, and the terminal procurement volume was limited [10][12] - **Lead**: Spot lead prices fell, and downstream buyers purchased on demand at low prices [13][14] - **Alumina**: Domestic alumina spot prices fell, the market transaction improved slightly, and the overall demand was inelastic [9]

| 品 种 | 点评 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落，下跌 0.03%至 9692.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.1%至 79820 | | --- | --- | | | 元/吨；现货进口亏损 500 元/吨左右。宏观方面，美国 3 月 ISM 制造业指数 49，不及 预期 49.5 和前值 50.3，该数据今年首次出现萎缩，价格指数飙升，创 2022 年 6 月以来 | | 铜 | 的新高，工厂订单和就业表现低迷，凸显美新政府关税政策对经济的影响。美对等关税 | | | 细节即将落地，白宫宣城 4 月 2 日关税宣布后即生效，多国表示将采取反制措施。国内 | | | 方面，中国 3 月财新制造业 PMI 为 51.2，高于前值 50.8，创 2024 年 12 月来新高，显 | | | 示制造业生产经营活动继续加快扩张。库存方面，LME 铜下增加 1900 吨至 213275 | | | 吨；Comex 铜增加 1223.8 吨至 88473.19 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 1457 吨至 136003 吨； | | | BC 铜仓单维系 15017 吨。COMEX 铜库存连续增仓，或意味着前期套利头 ...

Group 1 - The company announced the conversion of its convertible bonds "铜陵定02" (bond code: 124024) with a conversion period from March 27, 2024, to September 20, 2029, and a current conversion price of 3.30 CNY per share [1][2] - The company issued a total of 21,460,000 convertible bonds, which were registered on October 23, 2023, with the approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2] - The initial conversion price was set at 3.38 CNY per share, which was adjusted to 3.30 CNY per share due to the company's 2023 annual equity distribution plan [3][4] Group 2 - As of March 31, 2025, the remaining number of convertible bonds "铜陵定02" is 21,419,990, with the remaining amount reflecting the company's capital structure [3][4] - The company has a total share capital of 12,792,920,401 shares, with a cash distribution of 0.792126 CNY per 10 shares to all shareholders [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the non-ferrous metals and energy chemical sectors, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics affecting copper, aluminum, nickel, and other related materials [2][3][6]. Key Insights and Arguments Non-Ferrous Metals Market 1. **Supply Constraints**: The non-ferrous metals market in Q2 2025 is heavily influenced by supply-side issues, with copper, aluminum, and nickel facing significant supply constraints due to mining restrictions and policy changes [2][3]. 2. **Copper Price Trends**: Copper prices are expected to trend upwards in 2025 due to tight mining resources, a weakening US dollar, and inflationary pressures. The dollar index has dropped from 110 to around 104, with expectations of further declines [3][4]. 3. **Aluminum and Nickel Prices**: Both aluminum and nickel markets are experiencing high prices due to supply limitations, including domestic aluminum smelting capacity constraints and adjustments in Indonesian nickel mining policies [3][5]. 4. **Copper Supply and Smelting**: The tight copper supply is affecting smelting operations, with global metal smelting capacity utilization rates declining. Domestic reliance on imported copper ore is high, with port inventories at historical lows [3][11]. 5. **Processing Fees**: Current smelting processing fees are below breakeven levels, leading to increased concerns about production cuts. The long-term processing fee for copper is significantly lower than the previous year [12][11]. 6. **US Tariffs on Copper**: The US plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported copper, raising market premium expectations and affecting global inventory dynamics [13][14]. Energy Chemical Sector 1. **Oil and Coal Chemical Markets**: The oil chemical sector is influenced by global oil supply and geopolitical risks, while the coal chemical sector is affected by domestic coal production policies and environmental regulations [6]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The energy chemical products' prices are expected to be significantly impacted by downstream demand changes, particularly in industrial production activities [6]. Future Outlook 1. **Copper Market**: The copper market is expected to remain tight due to limited new mining capacity and declining ore grades. The overall industry supply situation is likely to remain constrained [9][10]. 2. **Aluminum and Nickel**: The aluminum market is facing limited growth potential, while the nickel market is experiencing a more relaxed supply situation, although policy changes in Indonesia could impact future supply [5][25]. 3. **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon market is oversupplied, while polysilicon production is expected to stabilize due to self-discipline production agreements among manufacturers [27][28]. Additional Considerations 1. **Domestic Market Conditions**: The domestic market is heavily reliant on imported copper ore, with significant concerns about the impact of US tariffs on waste copper supply and basic metal consumption [11][15]. 2. **Automotive Sector Impact**: The domestic automotive export situation is expected to influence global demand, with a focus on the recovery of domestic consumption in the context of new energy vehicles [17][39]. 3. **Regulatory Environment**: The evolving regulatory landscape, particularly regarding tariffs and environmental policies, will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics across the non-ferrous metals and energy chemical sectors [16][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the ongoing challenges and opportunities within the non-ferrous metals and energy chemical industries.

广晟有色金属股份有限公司 董事会审计、合规与风险管理委员会 根据《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》《上海证券交易所上市公 司自律监管指引第 1 号——规范运作》《公司章程》等有关规定的要 求，本着公正、客观、独立的原则，认真履行职责。现将 2024 年度 广晟有色金属股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")审计、合规与风险管 理委员会履职情况如下： | 序 | 会议 | 时间 | 会议名称 | 议 | 题 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 号 | 方式 | 2023 | 听取中喜会计师事务所汇报关于公司 | 年年报总体 | | | 第八届董事 | 审计策略和具体审计计划 | | | | | | 会审计委员 | 通讯 | 2024 | 会 | 年第 | 方式 | | 意见书 | 一次会议 | | | | | | 2023 | 听取关于调整 | 年审计项目的说明 | 第八届董事 | | | | 会议先由外部审计机构（中喜会计师事务所）范凤伟先 | 会审计委员 | 通讯 | | | | | 2024 | 会 | 年第 | 方式 | 对于各位委员发表意见建议，形成会议记录。 | ...

Group 1: Company Performance in 2024 - Yunnan Copper produced 1,206,000 tons of cathode copper, 127,100 tons of gold, and 12,000 tons of silver in 2024 [1] - Total assets at the end of 2024 amounted to CNY 34.899 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 57.66% [1] - The company achieved a total profit of CNY 1.265 billion and an operating income of CNY 17.8012 billion [1][2] Group 2: Southwest Copper Relocation Project - The Southwest Copper relocation project has completed its overall construction and is currently in the load trial phase [3] - The project aims to optimize smelting layout and production processes, enhancing resource utilization and reducing production costs [3] Group 3: Asset Disposal and Financial Impact - The company plans to transfer part of the fixed assets and inventory of the Wangjiabridge plant, with an estimated asset value of CNY 239.5048 million and a final transaction price of CNY 446.7424 million [4] - This asset transfer is expected to increase the company's net profit by approximately CNY 182 million for 2025 [4] Group 4: Resource Acquisition and Exploration - In 2024, the company invested CNY 65 million in geological research and exploration, discovering an additional 91,800 tons of copper resources [5] - The total copper ore reserves at the end of 2024 were 964 million tons, with a metal content of 3.6509 million tons and an average grade of 0.38% [5] Group 5: Response to Processing Fee Fluctuations - The company employs long-term contracts and spot market strategies to manage processing fee volatility [6][7] - It maintains stable relationships with major suppliers to ensure consistent supply and production continuity [7] Group 6: Technological Innovation and Digital Transformation - In 2024, the company invested CNY 2.707 billion in R&D, focusing on green low-carbon technologies and resource recovery [8][9] - The company has made significant progress in smart factory projects, including the implementation of AI technologies for improved operational efficiency [9] Group 7: Shareholder and Asset Injection Plans - Yunnan Copper Group plans to inject its 40% stake in Liangshan Mining into Yunnan Copper by November 29, 2026, subject to regulatory conditions [10][11] - The company is committed to maintaining transparency regarding any future asset injection matters [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6][41]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in net profit for 2024 due to falling coal prices and production, but anticipates a recovery in 2025 driven by increased aluminum production and stable costs [4][38]. - The company has a significant cost advantage in aluminum production, particularly in Xinjiang, which is expected to enhance profitability [38][41]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 5.91 billion, 6.48 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 7, 7, and 6 [41][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 38.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, while net profit dropped to 4.307 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.07% [1][9]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 10.059 billion yuan, with a net profit of 768 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 57.38% [1][9]. 2. Production and Profitability Analysis - Coal production decreased by 6.01% to 6.739 million tons, while aluminum production increased by 7.28% to 1.6285 million tons in 2024 [2][18]. - The gross profit per ton of aluminum rose to 4,462 yuan, an increase of 509 yuan, while coal's gross profit per ton fell to 170 yuan, a decrease of 299 yuan [2][18]. 3. Future Operational Plans - The company plans to produce 1.7 million tons of aluminum, 7.2 million tons of coal, and 660,000 tons of carbon products in 2025 [2][41]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's low valuation and high earnings elasticity could catalyze stock price increases, with a strong emphasis on the cost advantages in aluminum production [4][41]. - The anticipated growth in net profit and the favorable PE ratios indicate a promising investment opportunity [41][42].

云南铜业: 关于2024年度利润分配预案的公告 证券代码：000878 证券简称：云南铜业 公告编号：2025-017 云南铜业股份有限公司 公司本次现金分红预案不触及《深圳证券交易所股票上 市规则》第 9.8.1 条规定的可能被实施其他风险警示情形。 一、审议程序 云南铜业股份有限公司（以下简称云南铜业或公司） 于 2025 年 3 月 24 日召开第九届董事会第三十五次会议和第 九届监事会第二十六次会议，审议通过了《公司 2024 年度 利润分配的预案》。 该预案尚需提请公司 2024 年年度股东大会审议。 二、利润分配和资本公积金转增股本方案的基本情况 （一）本次利润分配和资本公积金转增股本方案的基本内 容 报表实现归属于母公司所有者净利润 1,264,690,204.48 元， 母公司实现净利润 132,227,424.58 元，提取法定盈余公积 加上年初未分配利润 2,387,468,633.45 元， 扣除实际分配的现金股利 661,197,342.30 元，截止 2024 年 预计分配现金股利人民币 480,870,794.40 元，不进行资本公 积金转增股本。 的比例为 42.78%。 （二） ...