Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase on November 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3870.02 points, up 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 12777.31 points, up 1.53%, and the ChiNext Index at 2980.93 points, up 1.77% [2] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 18263.21 billion yuan, an increase of 857.47 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds in the A-share market for the day was 88.12 billion yuan, with an opening net inflow of 60.91 billion yuan and a closing net outflow of 1.51 billion yuan [3] - The net inflow of main funds for the CSI 300 was 49.46 billion yuan, for the ChiNext it was 20.13 billion yuan, and for the STAR Market it was 5.37 billion yuan [5] Sector Performance - The electronics sector led the net inflow of funds with 48.57 billion yuan, followed by the banking sector with 45.45 billion yuan and the non-ferrous metals sector with 42.08 billion yuan [7] - The top five sectors with net inflows included electronics, banking, non-ferrous metals, media, and communications, while the sectors with net outflows included defense, automotive, machinery, agriculture, and food and beverage [8] Stock Highlights - The stock "阳光电源" (Sungrow Power Supply) saw the highest net inflow of main funds at 10.87 billion yuan [9] - Institutions showed significant interest in several stocks, with "航天发展" (Aerospace Development) receiving a net buy of 147.16 million yuan [11] Institutional Focus - Recent institutional ratings highlighted stocks such as "梅花生物" (Meihua Biological) with a target price of 13.44 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 31.51% from its latest closing price of 10.22 yuan [13] - Other stocks of interest included "顺丰控股" (SF Holding) with a target price of 55.22 yuan, suggesting a 40.69% upside from its current price [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week (20251117 - 20251123), major stock indices in the US and Hong Kong, as well as A - shares in China, all declined. The Fed may turn dovish again, and there are investment opportunities in domestic equity markets and potential for gold prices to remain strong [2][3][15]. - The A - share market is likely to strengthen in subsequent oscillations, and attention can be paid to investment opportunities in sectors such as new energy, photovoltaic, coal, steel, chemical, chip, computing power, and artificial intelligence. The bond market will likely continue to oscillate within a narrow range, and gold prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation [16]. 3. Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - US stock indices and the Hang Seng Index declined. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by - 2.74%, - 1.95%, and - 1.91% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by - 6.06%. The Hang Seng Index changed by - 5.09% [2]. - A - shares tumbled across the board. The wind All - A Index changed by - 5.13%, and various indices such as CSI A100, CSI 300, etc., also declined [3]. - Blue - chip and growth sectors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both dropped. The Shanghai Composite 50 and STAR Market 50 in Shanghai declined, and the Shenzhen Component 100 and ChiNext Index in Shenzhen also fell. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index changed by - 9.04% [4]. - Among industries, banking, consumer goods, etc., had relatively small declines, and bond - related ETFs led the gains. All 30 CITIC industries fell, with banking, food and beverage, media, and home appliances having declines of less than 2.0% [5]. Bond Market Performance - The national debt market fluctuated within a narrow range. The 10 - year national debt futures main contract rose 0.01% compared to November 14, 2025, and the yield of the 10 - year active national debt bond increased by 0.26 BP [6]. - Fund prices mainly decreased, and the central bank made a net injection in open - market operations. As of November 21, 2025, R007 increased by 0.07 BP, and DR007 decreased by 2.65 BP. The central bank made a net injection of 554 billion yuan [7]. - The bond market leverage level decreased. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 74.4 trillion yuan on November 14, 2025, to 72.9 trillion yuan on November 21, 2025 [9]. - US Treasury yields declined, and the yield curve shifted downward overall. As of November 21, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield changed by - 8 BP to 4.06% [10]. Exchange Rate and Commodity Market Performance - The US dollar strengthened, and the RMB depreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index rose 0.87%, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen all increased. The exchange rates of the US dollar against the offshore and on - shore RMB also rose [11]. - Gold prices showed a split between the international and domestic markets. The London gold spot price rose 0.04%, while the domestic Shanghai gold spot and futures prices fell by 2.49% and 2.79% respectively [12]. US Economic Data and Fed Expectations - In September, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US exceeded expectations, but the number of unemployed people increased significantly. The unemployment rate reached 4.4%, rising for the fourth consecutive month [13]. - The latest futures data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is again higher than 50%. Due to the delayed release of non - farm data, the Fed's December decision will be based on September data [14].

Market Overview - The net inflow of large orders in the two markets reached 16.313 billion yuan, with 42 stocks seeing net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan, led by Yingweike with a net inflow of 1.124 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.87%, with a total of 2,220 stocks experiencing net inflows and 2,388 stocks seeing net outflows [1] Industry Performance - Among the 20 industries with net inflows, the telecommunications sector had the highest net inflow of 5.561 billion yuan, with an index increase of 3.54% [1] - The electronics sector followed with a net inflow of 4.510 billion yuan and a rise of 2.14% [1] - Other notable sectors with significant inflows included electric equipment and non-ferrous metals [1] Individual Stock Performance - The top stocks with net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan included Yingweike (1.124 billion yuan), Yongding Co. (1.056 billion yuan), and Zhongji Xuchuang (1.053 billion yuan) [2] - Stocks with net outflows were led by BlueFocus with a net outflow of 1.309 billion yuan, followed by Shenguang Group and Zhongke Shuguang with outflows of 823 million yuan and 786 million yuan, respectively [2] - Stocks with net inflows of over 200 million yuan saw an average increase of 9.39%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] Detailed Stock Data - **Top Net Inflow Stocks**: - Yingweike: 1.124 billion yuan, 6.52% increase [2] - Yongding Co.: 1.056 billion yuan, 10.01% increase [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang: 1.053 billion yuan, 5.00% increase [2] - **Top Net Outflow Stocks**: - BlueFocus: -1.309 billion yuan, 1.40% increase [4] - Shenguang Group: -823 million yuan, -0.21% change [4] - Zhongke Shuguang: -786 million yuan, -0.44% change [4]

Group 1 - The overall market is expected to enter a sentiment recovery phase as various risk factors approach resolution, with a rebalancing of industry allocations anticipated [1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance and the potential for interest rate cuts in December may improve global liquidity expectations [1][2] - Current adjustments in A-share popular sectors and broad indices are nearing historical average levels for emotional corrections, indicating potential short-term reversal signals [1] Group 2 - Emerging technology is expected to remain a key investment theme, with attention also on undervalued consumer stocks and brokerage firms [2] - The improvement in global industrial competitiveness is opening new growth opportunities for Chinese companies, particularly in sectors like internet, semiconductors, media, power equipment, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] - The financial sector is seen as a crucial mechanism for stabilizing the market, with potential benefits from surging asset management demand and active market trading, focusing on brokerage, insurance, and banking [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback last week, with major indices generally declining. Sectors such as banking and consumer goods showed relatively smaller declines, while media and military industries, which had previously corrected, remained stable. This indicates a continued structural differentiation in the market, with small-cap growth styles under pressure and value and dividend sectors performing relatively well, reflecting intensified competition for funds amid declining risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Domestic economic indicators such as industrial production, consumption, and investment growth rates slowed down in October compared to September. This was influenced by holiday timing and high base effects from last year's policy stimulus, leading to short-term fluctuations in data. The pressure on domestic and external demand still requires policy support, with the need for further implementation of existing policies and timely introduction of new measures [2] - Credit performance from both enterprises and households has been relatively weak, with social financing growth continuing to decline due to reduced government bond issuance. However, new policy financial tools are gradually showing effects, which may support corporate loans. The Ministry of Finance announced the allocation of 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits, which may help stabilize social financing data in the last two months of the year [2] Group 3 - The debate over the AI valuation bubble is intensifying, causing fluctuations in the US stock market. However, data shows that the current Nasdaq index growth and valuation levels are significantly lower than during the tech bubble period from 1995 to 2000. Core companies are also showing accelerated profit releases, with stronger valuation and profit quality compared to that period [3] Group 4 - Following the market pullback in October, the overall financing and trading volume has significantly decreased. However, as various risk factors begin to stabilize, the market is expected to enter a phase of emotional recovery, with increased demand for industry rebalancing and fund reallocation. Factors supporting this include the dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, the necessity for policy intervention to boost growth in light of weak real estate and consumption data, and the current A-share market's adjustment levels approaching historical averages [4] - Emerging technology is expected to remain a key investment theme, with a focus on undervalued consumer sectors and brokerage firms. Specific areas of interest include internet, semiconductor, media, power equipment, and innovative pharmaceuticals in the technology sector, as well as consumer goods, hotels, airlines, and retail in the consumer sector. The financial sector is also highlighted as a crucial area for stabilizing the market and benefiting from increased asset management demand [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a broad increase today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87% to close at 3870.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.53% to 12777.31 points, the ChiNext Index up by 1.77% to 2980.93 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index gaining 0.43% to 1302.17 points [1] - Overall, 4297 stocks rose while 991 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 18121 billion yuan, an increase of 844 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included telecommunications, media, non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, and electronics, with respective increases of 3.54%, 2.85%, 2.42%, 2.21%, and 2.14% [1] - The only sectors that experienced declines were defense and military industry, and transportation, with decreases of 0.32% and 0.11% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors in terms of growth included optical modules (CPO), optical chips, optical communications, fiberglass, lithium battery electrolytes, cross-strait integration, 6G, copper-clad laminates, circuit boards, RF and antennas, Chinese corpus, high-speed copper connections, and online games [2] - Sectors such as aquaculture, air transportation selection, China Shipbuilding System, and aircraft carrier concepts experienced a pullback [2]

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 3.14 | 1037.59 | 21.46 | 德科立 | 20.00 | | 传媒 | 3.13 | 957.07 | 22.46 | 富春股份 | 20.00 | | 综合 | 2.61 | 40.11 | 0.04 | 东阳光 | 5.85 | | 有色金属 | 2.49 | 789.13 | 7.19 | 铂科新材 | 11.03 | | 电子 | 2.31 | 2426.46 | 18.32 | 长光华芯 | 20.00 | | 建筑材料 | 1.98 | 100.49 | -0.17 | 垒知集团 | 10.07 | | 社会服务 | 1.85 | 141.91 | 18.99 | 科德教育 | 19.99 | | 计算机 | 1.72 | 1360.95 | 8.69 | 佳缘科技 | 20.00 | | 电力设备 | 1.70 | 1477.77 | 9.40 | 欧陆通 | 15.49 | ...

Group 1 - Xinhua Net's stock price increased by 5.46% to 21.45 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 514 million CNY and a turnover rate of 3.66%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 14.473 billion CNY [1] - Xinhua Net Co., Ltd. was established on July 4, 2000, and listed on October 28, 2016. The company's main business includes online advertising, information services, website construction and technical services, and mobile internet [1] - The revenue composition of Xinhua Net's main business is as follows: 38.65% from government and enterprise comprehensive services, 36.30% from all-media advertising services, 19.73% from digital and intelligent services, and 5.32% from cultural and creative services [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten heavy stocks of funds, one fund under GF Fund has a significant holding in Xinhua Net. The GF CSI Media ETF Link A (004752) increased its holdings by 1 share in the third quarter, ranking as the ninth largest heavy stock [2] - The GF CSI Media ETF Link A (004752) was established on January 2, 2018, with a current scale of 625 million CNY. It has achieved a return of 26.4% this year, ranking 1470 out of 4206 in its category, and a return of 26.08% over the past year, ranking 1499 out of 3983 [2] - The fund manager of GF CSI Media ETF Link A (004752) is Luo Guoqing, who has a cumulative tenure of 10 years and 47 days. The total asset scale of the fund is 104.711 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 69.82% and the worst being -48.08% [3]

Liquidity - The supply side of funds is expanding, with equity public offerings rebounding to 111 billion yuan, up from 59 billion yuan, representing an increase to the 82nd percentile over the past three years[11] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached a historical high of nearly 700 billion yuan over the past six months, with a weekly net inflow of 353.1 billion yuan[44] - The demand side is slightly contracting, with equity financing dropping to 81 billion yuan from 259 billion yuan, at the 46th percentile over the past three years[32] Trading Congestion - The trading heat in the chemical industry increased by 42 percentage points to 79%, while the insurance sector decreased by 17 percentage points to 16%[62] - Media sector trading heat rose by 13 percentage points to 47%, while central enterprises fell by 14 percentage points to 26%[62] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow reached 205.4 billion yuan, an increase of 633.3 billion yuan from the previous value, placing it in the 93.7th percentile over the past five years[2] - The overall market saw a correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 2.5% to below 3900 points on November 21[78] - The search heat for A-shares on social media platforms returned to a high not seen since August, indicating increased investor interest[78]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the principle of price momentum, aiming to capture upward trends in industries and sectors[22][23] - **Model Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated for each industry based on its price momentum. The model ranks industries by their diffusion index values and selects the top-performing industries for portfolio allocation. The model has been tracking out-of-sample performance since 2021, with adjustments made monthly or weekly based on updated diffusion index rankings[22][23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown strong performance in capturing industry trends during momentum-driven markets but struggles during market reversals[22][36] 2. Model Name: GRU Factor Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages minute-level price and volume data processed through a GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning network to generate industry factors for rotation strategies[37] - **Model Construction Process**: The GRU model uses historical price and volume data as input to train a deep learning network. The network identifies patterns and generates factors that are used to rank industries. The top-ranked industries are selected for portfolio allocation. The model is updated weekly to reflect changes in the rankings[30][31][37] - **Model Evaluation**: The GRU model performs well in short-term trading environments but has shown limited effectiveness in long-term scenarios. It is also sensitive to extreme market conditions[37] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Diffusion Index Model - **Weekly Average Return**: -5.50% - **Excess Return over Equal-Weighted CSI First-Level Industry Index**: -0.42% - **November-to-Date Excess Return**: -1.13% - **Year-to-Date Excess Return**: 1.22%[26][22][23] 2. GRU Factor Model - **Weekly Average Return**: -4.71% - **Excess Return over Equal-Weighted CSI First-Level Industry Index**: 0.35% - **November-to-Date Excess Return**: 2.92% - **Year-to-Date Excess Return**: -2.74%[35][30][31] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Diffusion Index - **Factor Construction Idea**: The diffusion index measures the momentum of industries by analyzing price trends and ranks industries based on their momentum[22][23] - **Factor Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated for each industry using price momentum data. Industries are ranked based on their diffusion index values, and the top-ranked industries are selected for portfolio allocation. The index is updated weekly or monthly to reflect changes in industry momentum[22][23] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures upward trends in industries but may underperform during market reversals[22][36] 2. Factor Name: GRU Industry Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The GRU industry factor is derived from minute-level price and volume data processed through a GRU deep learning network to identify patterns and rank industries[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: The GRU model processes historical price and volume data through a deep learning network. The network generates factors that are used to rank industries. The top-ranked industries are selected for portfolio allocation, with updates made weekly[30][31][37] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in short-term trading environments but less so in long-term scenarios. It is also sensitive to extreme market conditions[37] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Diffusion Index Factor - **Weekly Average Return**: -5.50% - **Excess Return over Equal-Weighted CSI First-Level Industry Index**: -0.42% - **November-to-Date Excess Return**: -1.13% - **Year-to-Date Excess Return**: 1.22%[26][22][23] 2. GRU Industry Factor - **Weekly Average Return**: -4.71% - **Excess Return over Equal-Weighted CSI First-Level Industry Index**: 0.35% - **November-to-Date Excess Return**: 2.92% - **Year-to-Date Excess Return**: -2.74%[35][30][31]