黑色建材日报 2026-02-04 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3099 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.032%）。当日注册仓单 16931 吨, 环比增加 2090 吨。主力合约持仓量为 180.51 万手，环比增加 21029 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3265 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.122%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 147.72 万手，环比减少 21563 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z002077 ...

Group 1 - On February 3, Baotailong's stock increased by 1.22%, with a trading volume of 224 million yuan [1] - The financing data on the same day showed that Baotailong had a financing purchase amount of 13.82 million yuan and a financing repayment of 15.78 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 1.96 million yuan [1] - As of February 3, the total balance of margin trading for Baotailong was 209 million yuan, accounting for 3.29% of its circulating market value, which is above the 70th percentile level over the past year [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of Baotailong's shareholders was 83,100, a decrease of 10.86% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 12.18% to 23,062 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Baotailong reported an operating income of 479 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.55%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 118.44% to 50.36 million yuan [2] Group 3 - Baotailong has distributed a total of 332 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the past three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, among the top ten circulating shareholders of Baotailong, Guotai Zhongzheng Coal ETF ranked as the third-largest shareholder with 53.28 million shares, an increase of 32.45 million shares from the previous period [3] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited entered as a new sixth-largest shareholder with 21.22 million shares, while other funds also increased their holdings in Baotailong [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Province is making significant progress in energy revolution and industrial transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with key advancements in energy structure optimization and technological innovation [1][2] Group 1: Achievements in Energy Sector - 400 intelligent coal mines have been established, with advanced coal production capacity accounting for 84% [1] - The installed power generation capacity reached 164 million kilowatts, with Shanxi's electricity export ranking among the top in the country [1] - Cumulative unconventional natural gas production reached 75 billion cubic meters over five years, making Shanxi a net exporter of natural gas [1] - The electricity spot market has officially started operation nationwide, with significant technological innovations in coal-based energy [1] Group 2: Future Goals and Plans - The goal for 2025 includes a coal production of 1.305 billion tons, a 2.1% increase, and a total installed capacity of renewable and clean energy reaching 90.48 million kilowatts, accounting for 55.1% of the total, surpassing coal power for the first time [1] - The report outlines plans for the 15th Five-Year Plan, aiming for a new energy system and a stable coal production capacity while enhancing the coal industry's high-end development [2] - By 2030, the target is to add 100 million kilowatts of renewable energy capacity and reach an unconventional natural gas production of 30 billion cubic meters [2] - Specific actions for 2026 include stabilizing coal production around 1.3 billion tons, building 60 new intelligent coal mines, and developing a new energy base in the northern coal mining subsidence area [2]

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 700.0 0.0 5.0 6.0 -65.0 25省终端可用天数 19.8 0.6 -0.1 -1.1 2.2 秦皇岛5000 615.0 0.0 6.0 12.0 -55.0 25省终端供煤 620.4 -5.3 11.9 -19.6 -2.4 广州港5500 795.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -65.0 北方港库存 2314.0 -3.0 -48.0 -248.0 -17.3 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 0.0 10.0 5.0 -40.0 北方锚地船舶 85.0 0.0 -15.0 20.0 35.0 大同5500 555.0 0.0 10.0 5.0 -65.0 北方港调入量 130.1 -21.1 -33.2 16.8 11.5 榆林6000 670.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -82.0 北方港吞吐量 151.2 -25.7 -11.0 9.7 15.7 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -35.0 CBCFI海运指数 596.2 -18.6 -83.0 -13.0 121.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure, and its futures prices are weak. The support for coal - coke replenishment is gradually weakening, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures prices are oscillating. There are disturbances on the supply side of glass, but the oversupply situation limits the upside space of glass and soda ash futures prices. Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the futures prices are under pressure, but there is still replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, and the cost side still provides support. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and the post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand on the real - world side remain to be verified, and attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the prices of finished steel products [2] Carbon Element - The growth space for coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. As domestic coal mines approach the holiday, production will gradually decline, and the fundamentals of coking coal will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [2] Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. When the futures prices rise to a high level, they may face selling - hedging pressure. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. In the long - term, the futures prices may still oscillate around the cost valuation [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances on the glass supply side, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress prices, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the prices will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no expectation of negative feedback, and the cost side provides support. The futures prices are expected to oscillate widely. The spot market transactions are generally weak, the profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the iron - water output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has slightly increased. The demand for building materials has weakened seasonally, while the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience [8] - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the spot and futures prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, the arrivals have continued to weaken, and the supply side is subject to weather - related disturbance expectations. The iron - water output has slightly decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' replenishment has accelerated. The port inventory has continued to increase, and the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand both decline seasonally, and the price in East China has increased slightly. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the finished steel products. The arrival volume of steel mills will decline seasonally, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and blast furnaces will decrease, and the inventory of steel enterprises has increased [10] - **Coke**: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices remain oscillating. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [11][13] - **Coking Coal**: The online auctions show a mixed trend of rising and falling, and the futures prices oscillate. The domestic coal mine production will gradually decline before the holiday, and the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [14] - **Glass**: As the holiday approaches, the demand weakens, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The supply may be disturbed, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high, and the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress prices [15] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production remains at a high level, and the prices oscillate. The overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [15][18] - **Manganese - Silicon**: The inventory pressure remains high, and the prices fluctuate around the cost. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the production - control efforts of manufacturers [19] - **Silicon - Iron**: The trading volume is gradually decreasing, and the upside of the futures prices is under pressure. The market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity before the holiday suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. The futures prices are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [21]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 4 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 4 / 7 / 7 / 4 | | 卒」卒4日听刊 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | に | 橡胶 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 红枣 | 自糖 | 燃油 | | | | 铁矿石 | 多晶硅 | 三十债 | | | | 甲醇 | 棉纱 | 十债 | | | | РУС | 尿素 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 塑料 | 棉花 | 二债 | | | | 生猪 | 胶版印刷纸 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 原油 | 玉米 | 五债 | | | | 液化石油气 | 乙二醇 | 沥青 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Province is making significant progress in energy transition, with renewable and clean energy installations surpassing coal power for the first time, indicating a shift towards a more sustainable energy system [1] Group 1: Energy Transition in Shanxi - The installed capacity of renewable and clean energy in Shanxi increased by 18.29 million kilowatts year-on-year, reaching 90.48 million kilowatts, accounting for 55.1% of the total energy mix [1] - The construction of a new energy base in the coal mining subsidence area of Jinbei is accelerating, with total investments exceeding 50 billion yuan [1] - Thirteen green electricity industrial parks have been initiated, with green electricity trading volumes ranking among the top in the country [1] Group 2: Coal and Renewable Energy Synergy - The relationship between coal and renewable energy is evolving from competition to collaborative coexistence, enhancing the overall efficiency and resilience of the energy system [2] - Coal's stable supply is crucial for energy security, especially in the context of increasing extreme weather events affecting renewable energy output [2] - Existing coal infrastructure, such as land and power transmission systems, provides a foundation for the large-scale development of renewable energy [2] Group 3: Technological Innovation and Value Upgrade - The integration of coal power with renewable sources like wind and solar can create a flexible energy system that enhances grid stability [3] - Utilizing idle land in mining areas for distributed solar power not only supports mining operations but also promotes ecological restoration [3] - Technological advancements, such as the use of green hydrogen and carbon capture, are essential for reducing emissions and driving the coal industry towards a more sustainable model [3] Group 4: Deep Integration of Energy Sectors - Successful examples from regions like Yulin in Shaanxi demonstrate the potential of integrating renewable energy with coal mining operations through smart microgrids [4] - The application of clean technologies in mining operations can significantly reduce carbon emissions and enhance resource efficiency [4] - The coal industry is transitioning from a single fuel focus to a dual role as both fuel and raw material, creating new high-value green materials [4] Group 5: Future Outlook and Systemic Change - The energy sector in China is at a critical juncture, where the development of renewable energy is driving the upgrade of traditional energy systems [5] - Mechanisms such as green electricity trading and distributed solar access are being implemented to optimize energy use in mining areas [5] - The integration of coal and renewable energy is expected to evolve into a comprehensive energy hub, contributing to China's dual carbon goals and sustainable development [5]

Economic Information - Xiaohongshu platform will prohibit content collaboration with influencers in the medical beauty sector, marking a significant shift in marketing strategies within this industry [2] - In January, the expected recovery in the scale of bank wealth management products did not materialize, with a reported decline of 114.2 billion yuan in total scale, indicating a challenging start to the year for the sector [2][3] Company Alerts - Jinshiyuan anticipates a continued slow recovery in overall consumption, with expectations for a potentially "coldest Spring Festival" [6] - Aotwei reports that its orders for photovoltaic equipment in 2025 are at historical lows, although it has received bulk orders for aluminum wire bonding machines and AOI testing equipment [6] - Multiple companies, including Dahu Technology and Jiangyan Group, have announced plans to reduce shareholdings by up to 4% and 3% respectively [9] Overseas Alerts - The US stock market saw a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, Nasdaq down 1.43%, and S&P 500 down 0.83%, indicating a downturn in popular tech stocks [5] - Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports due to a government-imposed production cut plan, which could reduce output by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels [7]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have reduced their holdings in CITIC Resources (01205.HK) by 4,000 shares on February 3, indicating a trend of net selling over recent trading days [1] Group 1: Southbound Fund Activity - In the last 5 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for 5 days, with a total net reduction of 954,000 shares [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, there has been a total net reduction of 4,094,000 shares, with southbound funds reducing their holdings for all 20 days [1] - Currently, southbound funds hold 70,964,100 shares of CITIC Resources, which represents 0.9% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2: Company Overview - CITIC Resources Holdings Limited is primarily engaged in the exploration and sale of natural resources [1] - The company operates through four segments: - The crude oil segment focuses on oilfield operations and crude oil sales in Indonesia and China - The electrolytic aluminum segment operates aluminum smelting plants and sells aluminum ingots in Australia - The coal segment operates coal mines and sells coal in Australia - The import and export segment deals with the import of other goods and manufactured products [1]

你敢信吗？ 就在今天，科技股跌得稀里哗啦，好些巨头市值蒸发几千亿，跌幅都超过40%了，可白酒呢？ 茅台 愣是昂着头，眼瞅着又要冲回1500块了。 一边是火焰，一边是海水，这市场到底在玩什么把戏？ 有人直接放 话：科技牛已经走到尾声了，热闹全是别人的，接盘才是你的。 这话听着刺耳，可看看盘面，好像还真有那么 点意思。 2026年2月3日，这天的行情可真够折腾的。 上午三大指数还冲得挺欢，下午就全泄了气，走出一根长长的上影 线。 半导体、人工智能那些之前风光无限的科技权重股，成了砸盘的主力军，拖累得A股、港股一起往下掉。 可你翻翻板块涨跌榜，燃气、煤炭、白酒这些"老面孔"反而稳得很，尤其是白酒，板块飘红，茅台股价坚挺， 跟科技股的惨状一比，简直像两个世界。 成交量也透着古怪。 整体上看，市场交投比前几天冷清了些，可每到跳水那会儿，量能就突然放大。 明眼人都 看得出来，这是有一批人被吓破了胆，慌里慌张地往外跑。 但跑归跑，指数砸到4000点边上，就像撞上了一堵 墙，怎么都跌不穿。 3970点附近，那地方是60日均线的地盘，跟整数关口一叠加，成了多头死守的防线。 这可不是一般的调整。 回想去年10月初，科技股就开始了 ...