Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on Sichuan Road and Bridge as a leading player in Southwest infrastructure, highlighting its current combination of regional infrastructure growth and dividend yield [3][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of local manufacturing in Africa, particularly for companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is positioned as a leader in localized production and sales [4][16]. - The report notes a price increase in RTF copper foil, indicating a high demand for HVLP products, and suggests continued investment in copper foil and electronic cloth sectors [5][17]. - The report tracks the performance of various materials, indicating a downward trend in cement prices and a mixed outlook for glass and fiberglass markets [6][18][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Sichuan Road and Bridge is highlighted for its strong position in Southwest infrastructure, with a reported investment of 134.9 billion yuan in transportation construction, ranking second nationally and showing a 3.5% increase year-on-year [3][15]. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 340 yuan per ton, down 43 yuan year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 44.7% [6][18]. - Glass prices increased to 1295.28 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.58% rise, while concrete mixing stations reported a capacity utilization rate of 7.12% [6][18]. - The report warns of potential price declines in steel due to market fundamentals [6][18]. National Subsidy Tracking - The report mentions the allocation of 690 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement subsidies, with plans for further funding in October [7][19]. Important Changes - Notable acquisitions include Defu Technology's purchase of Circuit Foil Luxembourg for 174 million euros and the listing of Hanhai Group on the A-share market [8][20][21]. Market Performance - The construction materials index fell by 3.96% over the week, with specific declines in glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors [24]. Material Price Changes - Cement prices continued to decline, with a national average of 340 yuan per ton, while glass prices showed a slight increase [32][41]. - Fiberglass prices remained under pressure, with a reported average of 3595.25 yuan per ton [66].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significance of stable free cash flow in the A-share market, driven by a low interest rate environment and a shift in market pricing logic towards cash flow accumulation [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is accelerating, focusing on industries with low capacity utilization and price competition, such as cyclical resources and manufacturing sectors [2] - The logistics industry, particularly the express delivery sector, is expected to experience a critical turning point in August-September, with improved pricing and profitability anticipated due to seasonal demand shifts and policy support [2] Group 2 - As of July 29, 2025, the overall cash flow ETF fund has shown a monthly profit percentage of 100.00% since its inception, with a monthly profit probability of 81.25% [3] - The fund's Sharpe ratio for the past month is reported at 1.41, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [4] - The fund has a maximum drawdown of 2.69% since inception, with a recovery period of 13 days [4] Group 3 - The fund's management fee is set at 0.50%, while the custody fee is 0.10% [5] - The fund closely tracks the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index, which includes 100 companies with high free cash flow rates, reflecting strong cash flow generation capabilities [6] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 57.48% of the total, including major companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Wuliangye [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to improve profitability in certain sectors, particularly photovoltaic and float glass industries, while also highlighting the potential in cement and carbon fiber sectors [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy developments and market dynamics as they significantly influence industry performance [7] Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement prices continue to decline, with a national average price of 345.81 yuan/ton, down 3.06 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 46.94 yuan/ton year-on-year [27] - The average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions dropped to 43%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points week-on-week and 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [9][26] - Glass inventory continues to decrease, with a total inventory of 5,334 million weight boxes, down 225 million weight boxes week-on-week, reflecting a 4.05% decline [10][39] Recommended Sectors - The report recommends focusing on special fiberglass and African chains, with leading companies being the main investment focus for the year [11] - Key sectors with improving profitability include photovoltaic and float glass, driven by internal changes in leading companies like Qibin Group [8] - The waterproofing industry is also highlighted due to price strategy changes from leading companies, such as Oriental Yuhong [8] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the real estate market continues to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 9% in transaction area for new homes across 30 major cities [9] - The float glass market is experiencing a rise in prices due to increased speculative demand and replenishment from downstream sectors, with a production capacity utilization rate of 81.56% [10][36] - The carbon fiber industry is benefiting from cost reductions in leading companies, which is expected to enhance profitability [8]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The sentiment of "anti-involution" is rising, leading to significant price increases in cement, glass, and fiberglass commodities. The industry is expected to see a long-term trend improvement in fundamentals due to policy catalysts, as both prices and profitability are currently at the bottom [4] - Cement production capacity is anticipated to continue declining under the implementation of policies to limit overproduction, which will significantly enhance capacity utilization. A recovery in demand is expected in August, leading to gradual price increases [4] - The glass industry is experiencing price increases driven by environmental regulations, which will enhance standards and costs, accelerating the industry's cold repair progress [5] - The fiberglass sector is benefiting from demand driven by the AI industry, with a clear trend of volume and price increases expected [5] - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with strong demands for price increases due to the "anti-involution" policies [5] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Situation - Closing point: 5007.18 - 52-week high: 5128.73 - 52-week low: 3435.69 [1] Recent Market Performance - The construction materials sector index increased by 8.20% in the past week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (1.67%) and the Shenzhen Component Index (2.33%) [6] Cement Market Insights - Cement prices are currently in a downtrend due to seasonal factors, with a 2.13% decrease in bagged P.O 42.5 ordinary cement prices week-on-week. The monthly production in June 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 5.3% [8] Glass Market Insights - Glass prices increased by 0.76% this week, with futures closing at 1362 yuan/ton, primarily driven by "anti-involution" policies [12] Key Announcements - Tower Group reported a revenue of 2.056 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, with a net profit of 435 million yuan, up 92.47% [16] - Puyang Co. signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement for 500,000 tons of active magnesium oxide orders from 2026 to 2028 [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, particularly highlighting the demand recovery driven by major infrastructure projects and policy support for supply-side reforms [2][10][25]. Core Insights - The demand for building materials is expected to improve due to the initiation of large-scale projects like the Tibet Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower station, which is projected to significantly increase cement demand [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side policies aimed at curbing overproduction in the cement industry, which is anticipated to enhance price stability and profitability [10][23][25]. - The report identifies key players in the building materials sector, such as Hanhai Group, which is set to go public and is expected to capture a significant market share in the home hardware segment [3][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Hanhai Group's main business segments include home hardware and outdoor furniture, with home hardware expected to account for 85% of total revenue in 2024 [3]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, holding 1,173 patents and receiving multiple international design awards, showcasing its innovation capabilities [4]. 2. Market and Channel Strategy - Hanhai Group has established a nationwide sales network with 359 distributors across 31 provinces and has developed an online platform to enhance market penetration [6]. - The company has successfully tapped into e-commerce platforms, with its products consistently ranking high in sales [6]. 3. Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Hanhai Group's revenue is projected to grow from 1.62 billion to 2.857 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.8% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 206 million to 531 million yuan during the same period, with a CAGR of 60.7% [7]. 4. Future Outlook - Hanhai Group plans to raise 420 million yuan through its IPO to fund automation and R&D projects, aiming to solidify its market leadership [8]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the home hardware market and expansion into smart home solutions, alongside strengthening its international market presence [8]. 5. Cement Industry Insights - The cement sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms aimed at reducing overproduction, with policies already in place to support this transition [10][23]. - The report predicts that the overall capacity utilization in the cement industry could improve significantly, leading to better profitability for key players [25][26]. 6. Glass and Fiberglass Market - The report highlights a shift in the glass market, with inventory levels decreasing and price stabilization expected due to improved demand from downstream sectors [31][39]. - The fiberglass market is experiencing a divergence in performance between large and small manufacturers, with high-end products maintaining strong demand [41][42].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the real estate chain is showing signs of stabilization, with policies since 2025 continuing a loose tone that has been in place since 2024, suggesting a gradual bottoming out of the real estate fundamentals [1][34] - Cement demand is expected to decline at a slower rate in 2025, with industry awareness of price stability and profit protection increasing, indicating a potential profit turning point [1][34] - The consumption building materials sector is seeing an increase in the proportion of existing stock, with improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus expected to accelerate demand for renovations [1][3] Group 2 - Non-traditional building materials are experiencing higher overall demand, particularly in fiberglass, where downstream demand from wind power and thermoplastics remains strong, and competition is expected to ease [2][3] - The civil explosives sector is benefiting from increased investment in mining and water conservancy, leading to sustained demand growth, with major companies accelerating mergers and acquisitions [2][3] - Traditional refractory materials are facing weak downstream demand, but leading companies are expanding into new markets, such as magnesium salt chemicals and wet metallurgy, which are expected to contribute significantly to profits [2][3] Group 3 - The investment focus for traditional chains is on structural and supply aspects, while non-traditional chains are centered on downstream growth opportunities [3][4] - In the cement sector, supply-side reforms are accelerating, with a potential reduction in actual capacity to below 180 million tons in the medium to long term [3][4] - The consumption building materials sector is witnessing a price competition trend easing, with a focus on leading companies in the consumer market [3][4] Group 4 - The fiberglass segment is highlighted as a market focus, with significant demand expected for low dielectric and low expansion electronic fabrics, particularly in communication infrastructure and semiconductor packaging [4][3] - The civil explosives market in Xinjiang is projected to grow significantly, with existing demand estimated at 67.6 million tons, potentially reaching close to one million tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven demand in the photovoltaic glass sector, awaiting improvements in market conditions [4][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction materials sector, particularly focusing on companies involved in local production and supply chain integration in Africa [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing regulatory changes aimed at curbing excessive production and ensuring market stability, particularly in coal and other upstream industries [1][12]. - It emphasizes the importance of local manufacturing in Africa, suggesting that companies like Keda Manufacturing are well-positioned to benefit from this trend [2][13]. - The report identifies high demand for advanced materials such as RTF copper foil and HVLP copper foil, indicating a significant growth potential in the PCB upstream materials market [3][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report discusses the recent regulatory changes, including the draft amendment to the Price Law aimed at clarifying standards for unfair pricing practices [1][12]. - It notes that the coal industry is under strict production limits, with annual output not exceeding announced capacity [1][12]. - The report suggests that the current focus on curbing overproduction is crucial for emerging industries like new energy vehicles [1][12]. Market Performance - The construction materials index showed a weekly increase of 7.88%, with notable performances from the cement manufacturing sector, which rose by 13.66% [21]. - The report indicates that the average price of cement is currently 341 RMB per ton, down 47 RMB year-on-year [15]. - Glass prices have seen a slight increase, with the average price reaching 1238.61 RMB per ton, reflecting a 2.20% rise [15]. Price Changes in Construction Materials - Cement prices have decreased by 0.9% this week, with significant drops in regions like Jilin and Hunan [32]. - The report notes that the average price of non-alkali winding yarn is 3618.50 RMB per ton, down 0.84% from the previous week [64]. - The floating glass market has shown signs of recovery, with prices increasing due to improved demand and reduced inventory levels [32][47]. National Subsidy Tracking - The report mentions that the government has allocated 69 billion RMB in special bonds to support the consumption of old goods, which may benefit companies in the construction materials sector [16]. Important Changes - The report highlights the introduction of the Rural Road Regulations, which will take effect in September 2025, potentially impacting infrastructure development [17]. - It also notes the approval of a new industrial merger fund by Keshun Co., indicating ongoing consolidation in the sector [17]. Economic Outlook - The report assesses the economic conditions affecting the construction materials sector, noting that demand remains subdued in traditional markets while emerging markets like Africa show robust growth potential [19]. - It emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing market dynamics and regulatory environments to capitalize on growth opportunities [19].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Viewpoints - The commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Station is expected to drive significant demand for engineering, construction materials, and civil explosives, with key beneficiaries including Zhongyan Dadi, China Power Construction, and China Energy Engineering [1][7] - The cement market is experiencing price declines, while the glass market is seeing a rebound in prices due to industry self-discipline and price increases [2][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution in the shipbuilding paint sector, with companies like Maijia Xincai and Songjing Co. expected to benefit from rising demand [1][7] Summary by Sections Market Trends - In the 30th week of the year, new home transaction volume in 30 major cities decreased by 9% year-on-year, with a total transaction area of 1.4758 million square meters [1][18] - The second-hand housing market in 15 monitored cities saw a 4% year-on-year decrease in transaction area, totaling 1.6674 million square meters [1][18] Cement Market - The national average cement price is 356 RMB/ton, down 0.9% from the previous week, with an average shipment rate of 43% [2][21] - The report highlights a significant drop in demand due to adverse weather conditions, impacting construction activities across various regions [21] Glass Market - The average price of float glass increased to 1238.61 RMB/ton, reflecting a 2.20% increase from the previous week [2][64] - The report notes a stable trading environment for photovoltaic glass, with prices remaining unchanged [70] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong pricing power and cost advantages in the cement and waterproofing sectors, such as Huaxin Cement and Dongfang Yuhong [1][7] - It also suggests investing in companies involved in domestic substitution in the paint industry, particularly those with innovative applications in new fields [1][7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued decline in public fund allocation to the chemical industry, with the allocation ratio dropping to 4% in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a historically low level [1][11]. Core Insights - The focus of public funds has shifted towards sectors such as civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, and fluorochemicals, with significant increases in holdings for companies like China National Materials, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology [2][3]. - The polyurethane and tire sectors have seen continuous reductions in holdings, particularly for Wanhua Chemical, due to declining core product prices and a drop in profitability [3][4]. - The report highlights a strong interest in new materials, particularly in the fiberglass sector, driven by high demand in AI applications [3][4]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation in the Chemical Industry - The allocation of public funds to the chemical industry has been on a downward trend since Q2 2022, with a significant drop from 8.5% in Q3 2021 to 4% in Q2 2025 [1][11]. Individual Stock Changes - Key stocks that received increased allocations include China National Materials, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology, while significant reductions were noted for Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [2][16]. - The top ten stocks by market value in the chemical sector saw a decrease in concentration, with the top 15 companies holding a combined market value of 33.2 billion yuan, down 1.5 percentage points [14][15]. Industry Trends - The civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, and fluorochemical sectors are gaining attention, with the civil explosives sector benefiting from ongoing supply-side reforms and increased demand in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet [3][4]. - The potassium fertilizer market is supported by significant price increases in contracts signed in mid-June, while fluorochemicals are experiencing price rises due to quota implementations [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with fundamental support, such as potassium fertilizers and fluorochemicals, while also highlighting the importance of domestic demand in the civil explosives sector amid global trade uncertainties [4][5]. - New materials, particularly those related to AI applications, are recommended for investment consideration, alongside traditional cyclical sectors showing positive supply-side changes [4][5].

Group 1 - The new materials industry is experiencing high demand from downstream sectors and opportunities for substitution, with leading companies expected to enter a rapid growth phase due to high technological barriers [1] - New types of glass and carbon fiber are benefiting from sustained demand from high-growth downstream sectors such as renewable energy, with short-term support for the electronic yarn market coming from high-end products and low dielectric fields [1] - The fiberglass industry is seeing a demand boost from wind power, leading to inventory reduction and price increases, while the photovoltaic glass market is stabilizing with a slowdown in inventory growth [1] Group 2 - The New Materials 50 ETF (159761) tracks the New Materials Index (H30597), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting listed companies from the A-share market involved in advanced steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and inorganic non-metallic materials [1] - The index emphasizes technological innovation and industrial upgrading, showcasing high growth potential and industry representation [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI New Materials Theme ETF Initiated Link A (014908) and Guotai CSI New Materials Theme ETF Initiated Link C (014909) [1]