盈利预测与估值 考虑到公司特种玻纤布出货量有望改善，叠加单位价值量更高的产品占比提升，我们上调公司25/26e EPS 19%/20%至1.14/1.38 元，当前股价对应25/26e 21x/17x P/E。我们维持跑赢行业评级，将估值切换到 2026 年，理由如下：①公司特种玻纤布（AI产业链上游）盈利放量或在2026 年更明显，估值切换至 2026 年更符合公司中期发展方向；②玻纤布后续随着AI下游大客户的路径转换，高端产品比例仍有提 升可能性，由此支撑估值；③公司在特种布领域综合供应能力逐步体现，享有一定溢价。我们上调公司 目标价55%至27.4 元，对应25/26e 24x/20x P/E，隐含15%上行空间。 传统玻纤、叶片盈利或边际改善，由此贡献盈利弹性。玻纤：公司主要布局的风电纱和热塑产品在2025 年一季度陆续提价，幅度至少达10%，且提价落地完全覆盖二季度，带动玻纤综合吨净利改善。叶片： 我们判断随着行业装机量季度性回升，公司出货有望边际改善；叠加在价格提升和费用率摊销的双轮驱 动下，叶片二季度盈利改善幅度或超我们预期。 特种玻纤布综合供应商，满足算力迭代升级需求。我们认为，低介电产品典型 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shandong Fiberglass Group Co., Ltd., reported a decline in revenue and a shift to net losses in 2024, primarily due to decreased sales prices and volumes in the fiberglass sector, amidst an oversupplied market [1][6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.006 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.89% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -99 million yuan, a significant decline from the previous year [1][7]. - The cash flow from operating activities was 162 million yuan, down 70.40% year-on-year, mainly due to increased cash payments for goods and services [1]. Customer and Supplier Information - The company disclosed its major customers and suppliers, indicating stable operations with normal payment terms [2][3]. - Key customers included Shanghai Songou New Materials Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Bangju New Materials Co., Ltd., with sales revenues of 65.18 million yuan and 50.30 million yuan, respectively [2]. Industry Context - The fiberglass industry in China is experiencing overcapacity, with production capacity reaching 6.7 million tons and total output at 7.23 million tons by the end of 2023 [6]. - The average selling price of fiberglass yarn decreased by 225.64 yuan per ton in 2024, contributing to revenue loss [6][20]. - The market for fiberglass remains competitive, particularly in low-end products, while high-end applications like wind energy are expected to grow [6][18]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure for fiberglass yarn in 2024 showed direct materials accounting for 39.45% and energy costs for 23.60% [8]. - The decline in profitability was attributed to both lower sales prices and reduced sales volumes, with a total sales volume of 443,300 tons in 2024, down 8.09% from 2023 [20]. Future Outlook and Strategies - The company plans to enhance its product mix by focusing on high-end products such as wind energy yarn, which is expected to see increased demand [9][18]. - Strategies include optimizing operational costs, improving product margins, and expanding into international markets [9][10].

证券研究报告 中国巨石 (600176 CH) | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地 | 玻璃 | 6 月 5 日中国巨石出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司介绍了 25Q1 的经营情况及全年经营展望，同时就行业发展趋势及新产品和新技术 进行了讨论。我们看好公司产能持续扩张巩固规模优势，风电纱等产品需求 增长及收入占比提升有望带动公司盈利能力增强，维持"买入"。 玻纤复价逐步落地，盈利能力有望延续改善 据卓创资讯，25 年前 5 月缠绕直接纱/SMC 合股纱/G75 电子纱均价同比分 别+15%/+23%/+18%，玻纤价格同比延续改善。25Q1 公司毛利率/归母净 利率 30.5%/16.3%，同比+10.4/+5.9pct，毛利率呈逐季度改善趋势，25Q1 以来公司针对风电纱、热塑纱等产品复价陆续落地，同时海外市场复价稳步 推进，预计 25Q2 公司盈利能力有望延续同比提升。 预计 25H2 新增供给压力趋缓，公司产能规模和布局优势显著 公司九江二期两条 10 万吨产线分别于 25 年 ...

内容概况：随着叶片大型化（2025年叶轮直径预计达180米）及海上风电规模化发展，有效带动国内风 电纱行业市场规模的增长。2024年，中国风电纱行业市场规模为64.93吨，同比增长16.97%。从技术领 域来看，高模量玻纤（模量＞85GPa）需求占比持续提升。中国巨石E9玻纤（模量96GPa）已实现规模 化生产，应用于100米以上叶片主梁，减重30%同时成本降低50%。碳玻混编技术亦取得突破，中材科 技混编产品模量达120GPa，在150米级海上风电叶片中渗透率超10%。 相关上市企业：中国巨石（600176）、中材科技（002080）、山东玻纤（605006） 相关企业：中国建材集团有限公司、重庆国际复合材料股份有限公司、中盐化工股份有限公司、山东海 化集团有限公司、唐山三友化工股份有限公司、郑州得尔硼业化工有限公司、凤城化工集团有限公司、 中材科技风电叶片股份有限公司、株洲时代新材料科技股份有限公司、中国复合材料集团有限公司 关键词：风电纱、风电纱市场规模、风电纱行业现状、风电纱发展趋势 一、行业概述 风电纱是一种专用于风电行业的电子级玻璃纤维纱，主要用于制造风电叶片。它可加工成编织物或拉挤 板，与树脂复 ...

事件：25Q1 公司实现营收、归母净利和扣非归母净利分别为44.8、7.3、7.4 亿元，分别同比+32.4%、 +108.5%、+342.5%，公司业绩落于快报区间偏上限。 结构性复价落地，公司扣非业绩大幅提升。25Q1 风电、热塑等中高端领域需求旺盛，电子布景气有所 改善，预计带动公司粗纱、电子布产销同比较快增长。价格方面，据卓创资讯，25Q1 缠绕直接纱 2400tex 均价同比+22.8%，环比+2.0%。24 年末针对风电纱（提价15-20%）、热塑短切（提价10-15%） 等长协产品的提价在25Q1 得以有序落地执行，叠加公司单位生产成本的优化，预计25Q1 粗纱、电子布 单位净利环比进一步改善。2 月底7628 电子布报价上调约0.3 元/米，后续业绩反映或更充分。 公司全球化布局对冲关税风险。中国是全球玻纤核心供应国，24 年国内玻纤产量756 万吨，出口占比 27%，其中对美出口24.6 万吨（占出口比例12%）。美国玻纤本土产能预计在120 万吨左右，对中国进 口依存度较高。 公司从国内直接出口美国的销量有限，面对贸易摩擦，公司可以通过埃及基地40 万吨产能转口，美国 本土9.6 万吨产能 ...

玻纤工业基础材料，海外产能有限下国内供给必不可少。虽然今年以来，海外政治局势进一步不确定， 贸易战等扰动全球经济，但玻纤是工业基础材料，广泛运用于建筑、交通、电子、电气、化工、冶金、 国防等领域，是各个国家必不可少的原材料。同时，全球玻纤需求约千万吨，2024 年中国国内产量就 已达738 万吨，占比超7 成，考虑到玻纤是高能耗，高资本密集且技术含量较高，除中国外其他国家鲜 有产能扩张，加之国内有原材料分布和规模成本优势，未来行业受贸易战影响或有限。 投资建议：我们预计2025-2027 年公司分别实现归母净利润4.08/5.06/5.83 亿元，同比增长 48.50%/24.06%/15.12%，最新收盘价对应PE 为11x /9x /8x，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济下行风险、风电装机不及预期、能源价格上涨风险。 事件：1Q2025 营收7.63 亿元，同增31.35%，归属净利润0.82 亿元，同增61.78%；扣非后归母净利润 0.87 亿元，同增92.63%。 复价落地量价齐升，1Q2025 业绩大幅增长。在价格方面，根据卓创数据显示，1Q2025 无碱玻纤粗纱均 价为4373 元/吨，同 ...

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.5 billion yuan in Q1, representing a year-on-year growth of 32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million yuan, up 109% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of approximately 740 million yuan, reflecting a 342% increase year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's Q1 gross profit margin was approximately 30.5%, an increase of 10.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by both price increases and a decrease in production costs for raw yarn and electronic fabrics [2] - The company's net profit margin for Q1 was approximately 16.3%, up 6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [2] - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to around 40% by the end of Q1, showing a trend of financial improvement over the past two years [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in sales volume was primarily driven by the domestic market, while export sales weakened due to political and economic influences in Europe and the United States [2] - The average price of direct yarn in Q1 increased by 23% year-on-year, while the average price of electronic fabrics rose by approximately 0.6 yuan per meter year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the global demand for fiberglass, particularly in the wind power sector, with an anticipated increase in global fiberglass demand of over 600,000 tons this year [4] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The fiberglass industry is expected to see a slight improvement in overall profitability, with the wind power sector driving demand in the first half of the year [4] - The company is projected to maintain a competitive edge due to its resource advantages, product structure, and scale, with estimated net profits of approximately 3.4 billion yuan and 4.3 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The company’s export volume is projected to be around 202,000 tons in 2024, with a 27% export ratio, indicating a broad distribution in the export market despite challenges from tariffs [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - In the first quarter, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 730 million yuan, up 109% year-on-year, and the non-recurring net profit was approximately 740 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 342% [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Sales Performance - The company experienced significant sales growth, with domestic market demand driving the increase, while export sales weakened due to political and economic factors in Europe and the United States [10]. Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin for the first quarter was approximately 30.5%, an increase of 10.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to both price increases and a decrease in production costs [10]. - The net profit margin for the first quarter was approximately 16.3%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6 percentage points [10]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in the wind power sector, with an anticipated global fiberglass demand increase of over 600,000 tons this year [10]. - The company’s competitive advantages include resource access, product structure, and scale, which are expected to maintain its leading position in the fiberglass industry [10]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company is approximately 3.4 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.3 billion yuan in 2026, corresponding to valuation multiples of 14 and 11 times, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 15.2 CNY [5][9]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.479 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 730 million CNY, up 108.52% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 744 million CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 342.45% [1][2]. - The company's gross margin improved both sequentially and year-on-year, reaching 30.53%, which is an increase of 1.95 percentage points sequentially and 10.4 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement is attributed to price increases for long-term contract products and a decrease in production costs [3][4]. - The company is positioned as a global leader in the fiberglass industry, with a continuous optimization of product structure and a rising proportion of high-end products. The production costs for main products have been consistently decreasing [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 19.038 billion CNY, 20.988 billion CNY, and 22.450 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.07%, 10.24%, and 6.96% respectively. The net profits for the same period are expected to be 3.047 billion CNY, 3.581 billion CNY, and 3.993 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.64%, 17.52%, and 11.51% respectively [4][11]. - The company’s sales net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 17.03%, an increase of 6.25 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved gross margins and reduced expense ratios [3]. Market Position and Outlook - The company benefits from a favorable industry cycle, with increasing demand and price elasticity expected in 2025, particularly in the wind power and new energy vehicle sectors [4]. - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage with a deep moat in the global fiberglass market, supported by its extensive production lines and continuous product innovation [7].

以下文章来源于国金证券研究 ，作者国金证券研究 国金证券研究 . 发布国金证券研究所研究成果，沟通证券研究信息，交流证券研究经验。 摘要 1 风电叶片：提价逻辑顺畅，看好行业量利齐升 2 供需紧平衡、大叶片结构性稀缺有望驱动价格上涨 2.1 行业供需紧平衡，短期叶片供给弹性较小 2.2 风电大型化趋势明显，大叶片结构性短缺支撑提价 2.3 风机价格企稳回升，行业盈利重回上行通道，支撑叶片环节提价 3 议价权提升、成本传导与结构优化，叶片厂商盈利进入回升通道 3.1 风电纱供给集中、短期增量有限，看好玻纤复价弹性 3.2 原材料及叶片价格有望上涨，带来风电叶片盈利弹性 4 投资建议 5 风险提示 ■ 投资逻辑 投资逻辑： 风电叶片在风机发电中承担捕获风能并将其转换为机械能的关键作用。从风机成本结构来看，叶片是风机零部件产品中价值量最高的产品，在风机成本中占比约20-30%。在2025年风 装机需求大幅增长的背景下，预计叶片环节将呈现供需紧平衡、结构性短缺的状态，我们认为叶片环节有望受益于良好的供需关系、相对稳定的行业格局以及原材料成本上升带来的 价逻辑，从而实现价格及盈利的修复。 行业供需紧平衡，短期叶片供给弹 ...