Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, industrial silicon decreased by 0.85% and polysilicon dropped by 5.51%. The industrial silicon futures market showed a volatile trend, while the polysilicon futures market was in a downward - oscillating state [4]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side shows a regional differentiation pattern of "steady production increase in the northwest and capacity shrinkage in the southwest". The demand from the downstream organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors has different impacts on industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand from the three downstream industries for industrial silicon remains flat. The polysilicon market is expected to be in a high - level oscillation next week [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand relationship is characterized by increasing supply and weakening demand. Although the price has been strongly pulled up recently, the long - term demand may be restricted [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: Industrial silicon decreased by 0.85% this week, and polysilicon dropped by 5.51%. The industrial silicon futures market was volatile, and the polysilicon futures market oscillated downward [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side shows regional differentiation. In the demand side, the organic silicon market has a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon, the polysilicon industry has an increasing demand but may be restricted in the long - term, and the aluminum alloy industry has limited demand for industrial silicon [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand relationship is "supply increase, demand decrease". It is expected to show a high - level oscillation next week [4]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with an oscillation range of 52000 - 58000 and a stop - loss range of 49000 - 60000 [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price decreased this week, the spot price increased, and the basis weakened. As of September 11, 2025, the spot price was 9200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 460 yuan/ton [10][12]. - **Polysilicon**: Both the futures and spot prices increased this week, and the basis strengthened. As of September 11, 2025, the spot price was 51.55 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 2160 yuan/g [14][16]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: As of September 11, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 85100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 58.60% [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, the raw materials and electricity prices of industrial silicon remained flat. During the wet season, the overall cost remained low. The electricity price in the northwest region was adjusted to 0.30 yuan/kWh, and the electricity price in Baoshan was 0.29 yuan/kWh [21][24]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 11, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of industrial silicon was 50093 lots, up 21 lots from last week [28]. - **Organic Silicon**: This week, the output and operating rate of organic silicon increased. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly output was 47800 tons, up 3%, and the weekly operating rate was 72.71%, up 3%. However, the profit decreased, and it is expected that the output will decrease in the future, reducing the demand for industrial silicon [30][35][37]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy increased, and the inventory continued to rise. As of September 11, 2025, the price was 20800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the inventory was 70800 tons, up 12900 tons from last week. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will be negative [43][45]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells increased. As of September 11, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.45 yuan/piece, up 0.03 yuan/piece from last week, and the battery cell price was 0.3 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan/W from last week. It is expected that the demand for polysilicon will increase slightly [50][52]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the cost of polysilicon increased, the profit decreased, and the inventory decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the profit was 11940 yuan/ton, the average cost was 39610 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 276000 tons [57][61].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for industrial silicon, short - term range operation for polysilicon [3][11] - Inter - month spread: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] - Cross - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon's spot price follows the futures price with a slight increase, and the inventory remains flat. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the market may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, and the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on dips [3][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 11, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,715 yuan/ton and closed at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 2.46% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 287,771 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,093 lots, an increase of 48 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in many regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon was also slightly adjusted up [1] - As of September 11, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 539,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 119,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 420,000 tons, unchanged from last week [1] - The consumption side: The price of silicone DMC was stable at 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. After two weeks of low - level stability, downstream enterprises completed rigid restocking. Monomer factories have a stronger willingness to support prices [2] Strategy - The spot price follows the futures price with a slight increase, and the inventory remains flat. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there are capacity - exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there are policies, the market may rise [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 11, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures was strong, opening at 53,200 yuan/ton and closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94% from the previous day. The position was 136,326 lots, and the trading volume was 278,296 lots [5] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 49.10 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 219,000 tons, up 3.79% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.55GW, down 1.78% month - on - month. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,200 tons, up 3.31% month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 13.88GW, up 0.73% month - on - month [7] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [7][8] Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Policy implementation and spot price transmission need to be continuously followed up. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on dips [9] Factors to Watch - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, factors to watch include the resumption and new capacity production in the Northwest and Southwest regions, changes in the operating rate of polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, policy disturbances, and macro and capital sentiment [6][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply is stable, but demand is weak. The cost support is weakening in the flood season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 8605 - 8875 [6][8]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply schedule is decreasing, while the demand shows a continuous recovery trend. The cost support is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 52660 - 54760 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - **Cost**: The production of sample oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang is at a loss of 3322 yuan/ton, and the cost support is weakening in the flood season [6]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was 260 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory decreased by 0.73%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55%. The main port inventory decreased by 1.68%. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [6][8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers last week was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory decreased by 1.78%. The production of battery cells and components is increasing, and the overall demand is recovering [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [10]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2160 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price. The weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level compared to the same period in history. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, and the long position is decreasing [10]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 0.94% [17]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon also showed increases, such as the price of East China non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon increased by 0.56% [17]. - Inventory data of different types, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory, showed a decreasing trend [17]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts increased. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 1.54% [19]. - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were relatively stable, with small changes in some indicators [19]. - The export volume of battery cells and components increased, and the inventory of some products decreased [19]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, as well as the cost trends in sample regions, show fluctuations over time [21][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The market price and cost trends show that the price and cost of polysilicon have different change trends in different periods [64]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show that the supply - demand relationship is in a state of change, with different levels of balance or imbalance in different periods [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the supply and demand are also in a dynamic state, with different balance results in different months [67]. 3.5 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends show that the production capacity utilization rate is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased [47][53]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, and raw rubber are relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show that the inventory is at a high level, and the production and import - export situation is complex [56][59]. - The demand in the automotive and wheel - hub sectors is related to the production and sales of automobiles and the export of wheel - hubs [60]. Polysilicon Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: The price, production, inventory, and demand trends show that the production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [70]. - **Battery Cells**: The price, production, and export trends show that the production is increasing, and the export volume is also increasing [73]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: The price, production, inventory, and export trends show that the production and export are increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [76]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The price, production, and import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, and photovoltaic glass show different change trends [79]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit**: The cost - profit trends of different components in 210mm components show different profit situations [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply - The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China's wet season is ending, and the growth rate of furnace - starting in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. The overall supply pressure is expected to gradually ease [4]. - Demand - The demand from the organic silicon industry has slowed, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy remains stable. The demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Market Outlook - If the supply - side production rate enters a downward channel and the downstream polysilicon demand improves, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. Polysilicon - Supply - The production plan in September is expected to increase month - on - month, exacerbating the supply - side surplus pressure. The increasing number of daily warehouse receipts also exerts pressure on the futures market [10]. - Demand - The production rhythm of silicon wafers and battery cells continues to slow, and the demand for polysilicon is restricted by factors such as lagging terminal installation demand and inventory digestion pressure [10]. - Market Outlook - If major enterprises in the industry reach effective integration agreements, it will fundamentally improve the supply - demand pattern and form long - term support for the market. Currently, investors are advised to be cautious [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8740 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 75 yuan (0.87%) and a weekly increase of 225 yuan (2.64%) [12]. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 275329 lots (44.20%) daily and 24186 lots (6.51%) weekly [12]. - The open interest of the main contract increased by 9706 lots (3.49%) daily and 10466 lots (3.77%) weekly [12]. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price of 553 in Xinjiang increased by 100 yuan/ton (1.14%) [20][21]. - The price of 421 in Yunnan increased by 100 yuan/ton (1.14%), and the price of industrial silicon powder and some downstream products also had price changes [21]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50093 lots, an increase of 48 lots (1.23%) from the previous period [34]. - The inventory in some delivery warehouses remained stable, while the inventory in Tianjin delivery warehouse increased by 198 tons (0.92%) [34]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 825 yuan (1.56%) and a weekly increase of 1515 yuan (2.90%) [36]. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 133683 lots (32.45%) daily but increased by 10216 lots (3.81%) weekly [36]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 746 lots (0.54%) daily and 9624 lots (6.59%) weekly [36]. Spot Data - The prices of N - type polysilicon products such as N - type re - feeding materials and N - type dense materials had slight weekly increases [42]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also had different degrees of changes [42]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 2470 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 845 yuan (52.00%) and a weekly decrease of 1405 yuan (131.92%) [48]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7690 lots, an increase of 320 lots (4.3%) [36].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比减少1.21%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库存为21.1万吨， 处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为73200吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润 为46元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率为70.59%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭 库存为5.79万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为176元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为605.88元/吨，再 生铝开工率为55.3%，环比增加3.36%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分 | 项 | 2025/9/8 | 2025/9/9 | 涨 跌 | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 8545 | 8530 | -15 | | | | 近月 | 8690 | 8555 | -135 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8950 | 8950 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 8850 | 8850 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 通氧55 ...

2025 年 09 月 08 日 工业硅：关注市场情绪变化 多晶硅：关注仓单注册情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,820 | 305 | 430 | 120 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 563,286 | 191,481 | 224,312 | 98,203 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 286,545 | 9,240 | -5,870 | 77,809 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 56,735 | 4,540 | 7,180 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 665,242 | 397,162 | 312,183 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 185,039 | 39,089 | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the main idea is to short at high prices; for polysilicon, attention should be paid to policy - related information [2] - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking a. Futures Market - Si2511: The closing price is 8,515 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 371,805 lots, and the open interest is 277,305 lots. Compared with different reference days (T - 1, T - 5, T - 22), there are corresponding changes [2] - PS2511: The closing price is 52,195 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 268,080 lots, and the open interest is 145,950 lots, with specific changes compared to previous days [2] b. Basis - Industrial silicon has different spot premiums and discounts when benchmarked against different products (such as Si5530, Si4210, Xinjiang 99 silicon), and polysilicon also has a spot premium and discount when benchmarked against N - type re - investment [2] c. Price - Industrial silicon prices vary by region and type, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon at 8,500 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 at 9,650 yuan/ton; polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 51,500 yuan/ton [2] d. Profit - Silicon factory profits for different types (Xinjiang new standard 553 and Yunnan new standard 553) are negative, and polysilicon enterprise profit is - 14.3 yuan/kg [2] e. Inventory - Industrial silicon has different inventory types, including social inventory (53.7 million tons), enterprise inventory (17.1 million tons), industry inventory (70.8 million tons), and futures warehouse receipt inventory (25.0 million tons); polysilicon factory inventory is 21.1 million tons [2] f. Raw Material Cost - The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon and polysilicon, such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., have different price levels and changes [2] g. Price and Profit in Related Industries - In the polysilicon (photovoltaic) industry, prices of products like silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc., and profits of related enterprises are provided; in the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries, prices and profits of products are also given [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026". The plan sets various goals for the industry from 2025 - 2026, such as average growth rate of added value, revenue scale, and market penetration rate [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant declines in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with a notable loss in Q2 due to falling industrial silicon prices and operational challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.775 billion yuan, down 26.34% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -397 million yuan, a decrease of 140.60% year-on-year [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 4.548 billion yuan, a decline of 42.11% year-on-year and 13.02% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -657 million yuan, down 245.87% year-on-year and 352.93% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The gross profit margin was 7.92%, down 15.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -4.23%, down 11.41 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Market Conditions - The industrial silicon price significantly decreased in Q2 2025 due to weak raw material prices and macroeconomic pessimism, leading to a decline in sales volume and prices [2]. - The company sold 214,600 tons of industrial silicon in Q2, down 47.2% year-on-year and 17.4% quarter-on-quarter, with an average selling price of 7,337.8 yuan per ton, down 36.2% year-on-year [2]. Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate the downward price trend in the market, benefiting the company as it focuses on eliminating low-price competition and phasing out outdated capacity [3]. - The supply-demand dynamics are gradually improving, with expectations for industrial silicon prices to stabilize and recover as market demand rebounds [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is leveraging its advantages in industrial chain collaboration to strengthen its position as a dual leader in industrial silicon and organic silicon [4]. - Efforts include reducing energy consumption in industrial silicon production and enhancing product quality through technological upgrades and process optimization [4]. - New product developments, such as amino silicone oil and organic silicone emulsions, are positioned to meet international standards and cater to various industries [4]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 23.082 billion, 29.376 billion, and 31.269 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.019 billion, 2.121 billion, and 2.677 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its industry leadership and growth potential despite current challenges [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为9万吨 ， | | 环比有所增加2 27% 。 . | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 2万吨 ， | 环比增长3 80% . . | 需求有所抬升 | 多晶 . | | | | | | | | 硅库存为21 3万吨 ， . | | 处于低位 ， | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池 ...