Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The supply - side has stable blast furnace profits and rising disk profits, so steel mills may continue to increase production with a low probability of significant reduction. The demand - side is affected by winter cold, with seasonal weakening of rebar demand and inventory accumulation, and hot - rolled coil demand may slow down and turn to inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices will fluctuate within a range [3]. - Iron Ore: Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the downside is supported by the healthy fundamentals of steel, good profits of steel mills, and inventory replenishment expectations. Additionally, attention should be paid to the impact of rainy seasons in Australia and Brazil on shipments. It is expected that the price decline space is limited [23]. - Coal and Coke: Coking coal is in a pattern of "strong spot, weak disk" with a high basis. Without strong policy expectations to boost the disk, as winter storage enters the second half, the demand sustainability is limited, and the spot price of coking coal may face downward pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, if there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic supply recovery" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [36]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. The upper limit of silicon - manganese is restricted by high inventory, and the fundamentals of silicon - iron are slightly better than those of silicon - manganese. In the short term, ferroalloys will fluctuate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [52]. - Soda Ash: The short - term commodity sentiment is warming up, which may drive some low - valued varieties. If the disk rises, there is some inventory replenishment space for middle and downstream players, but the demand is average with limited elasticity. In terms of fundamentals, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the oversupply expectation is intensifying. The export of soda ash remains high, which alleviates the domestic pressure to some extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [66]. - Glass: Although the daily melting of float glass has dropped to a certain low level, the demand reality and expectation are also weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines for cold - repair and ignition, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. Currently, the high inventory of the middle reaches of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists [90]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3199 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan from January 26), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3330 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The basis and month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4][10][12]. - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day. For example, 01 rebar/01 iron ore was 4, and 01 rebar/01 coke was 2 [20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 757 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan from January 26). The basis also increased, and the prices of various iron ore varieties such as Rizhao PB powder also rose [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the 45 - port desilting volume decreased, the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased, the 45 - port inventory and 247 - steel mill inventory increased, and the available days of 247 steel mills also increased [30]. Coal and Coke - **Price Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was - 178 (down 12.5 from January 26). The disk coking profit increased, and the ratios such as the main ore - coke ratio also changed [39]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions remained relatively stable on January 27, 2026, with some slight changes in the import profit of different types of coal [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - Iron**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the basis of silicon - iron in Ningxia increased, the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke and动力煤 decreased slightly, and the number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased [53]. - **Silicon - Manganese**: On January 27, 2026, the basis of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia increased, the month - spreads changed slightly, the spot prices in various regions remained stable, and the prices of some manganese ores decreased slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts increased slightly [54][56]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding changes [67]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the overall inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, restricting the price [66]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1066 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis changed [91]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the period from January 17 - 23, 2026 [92].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations, with a notable increase in trading volume and changes in pricing dynamics across various ports and grades of iron ore [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 26, the total iron ore transactions at major ports reached 105.4 million tons, representing a 33.08% increase compared to the previous period [2]. - The futures market saw the main iron ore contract close at 788.0 yuan/ton on January 27, with a decline of 0.51% from the previous day [1]. - Daily trading volume in the futures market reached 211,744 contracts, indicating active trading [1]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - The spot market reported prices for PB powder at 793 yuan/ton and for super special powder at 670 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 123 yuan/ton between high and low-grade products [1]. - The price of iron ore at various ports includes: - Jiangyin Port: 767 yuan/ton - Caofeidian Port: 777 yuan/ton - Tianjin Port: 728 yuan/ton - Qingdao Port: 751 yuan/ton - Rizhao Port: 751 yuan/ton [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - The global iron ore shipment totaled 29.78 million tons from January 19 to January 25, with an increase of 48.5 thousand tons compared to the previous week [2]. - Australian and Brazilian shipments accounted for 23.94 million tons, with Australia shipping 18.37 million tons, marking an increase of 149.3 thousand tons [2]. - Demand for iron ore is constrained by production issues and safety inspections, leading to a slower recovery in iron and steel production [3]. Group 4: Inventory and Price Support - Port inventories are accumulating, which is putting pressure on both spot and futures prices [3]. - Despite the weak fundamentals in the iron ore market, there is expected support for prices due to healthy steel fundamentals, good profit margins for steel mills, and anticipated rigid replenishment needs [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Category Spot Market - Newman powder: price 788, daily change -10, weekly change -6, discounted to the underlying 843.3, import profit 15.97 [1] - PB powder: price 793, daily change -9, weekly change -11, discounted to the underlying 844.5 [1] - Macfarlane powder: price 789, daily change -11, weekly change -8, discounted to the underlying 861.7, import profit 39.45 [1] - Jinbuba: price 746, daily change -9, weekly change -11, discounted to the underlying 838.8, import profit 50.45 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder: price 725, daily change -5, weekly change -18, discounted to the underlying 862.8, import profit 1.52 [1] - Super special powder: price 670, daily change -8, weekly change -7, discounted to the underlying 889.8, import profit -0.49 [1] - Carajás powder: price 878, daily change -9, weekly change -1, discounted to the underlying 811.5, import profit -14.89 [1] - Brazilian blend: price 824, daily change -9, weekly change -11, discounted to the underlying 830.9, import profit 8.05 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: price 757, daily change -9, weekly change -11, discounted to the underlying 830.4 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: price 762, daily change -9, weekly change -11 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate: price 872, daily change -6, weekly change -7, discounted to the underlying 974.6 [1] - 61% Indian powder: price 735, daily change -9, weekly change -11 [1] - Karara concentrate: price 876, daily change -6, weekly change -7, discounted to the underlying 896.2 [1] - Roy Hill powder: price 780, daily change -9, weekly change -11, discounted to the underlying 858.5, import profit 59.15 [1] - KUMBA powder: price 852, daily change -9, weekly change -11, discounted to the underlying 831.5 [1] - 57% Indian powder: price 605, daily change -8, weekly change -7 [1] - Atlas powder: price 720, daily change -5, weekly change -18 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate: price 982, daily change 0, weekly change 11, discounted to the underlying 869.0 [1] Futures Market - DCE i2701: price 755.0, daily change -9.5, weekly change -7.5, monthly spread 11.0, spread change 56.5, daily spread change -0.2, weekly spread change 6.4 [1] - DCE i2605: price 784.5, daily change -10.5, weekly change -9.5, monthly spread -29.5, spread change 27.0, daily spread change 0.8, weekly spread change 8.4 [1] - DCE i2609: price 766.0, daily change -11.5, weekly change -10.5, monthly spread 18.5, spread change 45.5, daily spread change 1.8, weekly spread change 9.4 [1] - SGX FE01: price 105.87, daily change 0.22, weekly change -1.05, spread -2.59, spread change -69.8, daily spread change 4.6, weekly spread change -34.5 [1] - SGX FE05: price 104.61, daily change 0.95, weekly change -1.42, spread 1.26, spread change -29.3, daily spread change -0.1, weekly spread change -6.6 [1] - SGX FE09: price 103.28, daily change 1.01, weekly change -1.47, spread 1.33, spread change -36.4, daily spread change -1.1, weekly spread change -5.2 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices maintain a sideways trend, with rebar slightly stronger than hot - rolled coils, and the spread between coils and rebar has converged to 160 yuan per ton. The steel industry has weak supply and demand. Rebar demand declines seasonally, with a large supply - demand gap and obvious inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand declines slightly and inventory continues to be depleted. The market sentiment has improved in the second half, and steel is expected to fluctuate towards the upper limit of the range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the possible easing of the negotiation deadlock, lower - than - expected hot - metal production resumption, and the gradual realization of steel - mill restocking, prices are under pressure. Be cautious of macro - level fluctuations [3]. Coke - The coke futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot market is currently stable. Supply - side price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coking profits are under pressure. Demand - side steel - mill production has resumed slightly after the New Year's Day. Inventory has increased slightly. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and starting to raise prices, which is expected to be implemented. The market is expected to be loose again, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot auction prices in Shanxi mostly increased, and the Mongolian coal quotation followed the futures down. The supply side has resumed production, and the demand side has low - level hot - metal production and weakening coking profits. The overall inventory has increased slightly. Before the Spring Festival, the spot is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures have over - anticipated the rise. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [5]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply is stable, and production is at a historically low level. The non - steel demand is weakening. The overall inventory is moderately high. The cost is affected by the manganese ore restocking. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese supply is relatively stable with a low absolute value. The demand is affected by the slow resumption of hot - metal production. The manganese ore supply and port inventory have an impact on the cost. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions have different changes, with some rising and some remaining stable. The basis and spreads of different contracts also vary [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices have different changes. The costs of electric - furnace and converter rebar in different regions also change, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decline to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output and the output of five major steel products are basically stable. Rebar production increases by 4.9%, with converter production increasing by 6.3% and electric - furnace production decreasing by 2.0%. Hot - rolled coil production decreases by 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increases by 0.8%, with rebar inventory increasing by 3.2% and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material transactions increase by 8.9%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreases [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increase by about 0.9%, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different powders decreases slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increases by 2.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreases by 3.4% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increase by about 0.8% - 0.9%, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increases slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume and global shipment volume decline, while the national monthly import volume increases by 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is basically stable, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreases by 2.9%, and the national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production decline [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory and the imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills increase, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increase by 9.5% [3]. Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remain stable, while the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The coking profit (weekly) of the Steel Union declines [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal (warehouse - receipt) increases by 0.4%. The overseas coal prices of some varieties increase [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increases by 2.1%, with the inventory of coking plants decreasing and the inventory of steel mills and ports increasing [5]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remains basically unchanged [5]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) increases [5]. Supply - The raw - coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreases slightly, and the coking - coal product output decreases slightly [5]. Demand - The coke output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the coke output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The coking - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreases, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports changes in different directions [5]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increases, and the spot prices of some regions increase slightly [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions changes slightly, and the production profit in some regions improves [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon product output (weekly) decreases slightly, and the operating rate of production enterprises decreases slightly [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (weekly) calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increases by 5.4%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon decrease [6]. Silicomanganese Silicomanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicomanganese main contract increases, and the spot prices in most regions remain stable [6]. Cost and Profit - The manganese - ore prices of some varieties at Tianjin Port remain stable [6]. Supply - The silicomanganese weekly output increases slightly, and the operating rate increases slightly [6]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises remains basically unchanged, and the average available days of inventory decrease [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints - No relevant content found 3. Summary by Categories Iron Ore Spot Information - Newman powder: latest price 798, daily change +7, weekly change -11, discounted to the futures price 854.2, import profit 18.11 [1] - PB powder: latest price 802, daily change +7, weekly change -17 [1] - Macfie powder: latest price 800, daily change +7, weekly change -12, discounted to the futures price 873.7, import profit 45.03 [1] - Jinbuba powder: latest price 755, daily change +7, weekly change -17, discounted to the futures price 848.4, import profit 45.28 [1] - Mixed powder: latest price 730, daily change +2, weekly change -24, discounted to the futures price 868.2, import profit -2.16 [1] - Super special powder: latest price 678, daily change +6, weekly change -10, discounted to the futures price 898.6, import profit -0.61 [1] - Carajás powder: latest price 887, daily change +7, weekly change -18, discounted to the futures price 821.2, import profit -14.06 [1] - Brazilian Blend: latest price 833, daily change +7, weekly change -17, discounted to the futures price 840.6, import profit 7.23 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: latest price 766, daily change +7, weekly change -8 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: latest price 771, daily change +7, weekly change -8 [1] - Ukrainian iron concentrate: latest price 878, daily change +6, weekly change -14 [1] - 61% Indian powder: latest price 744, daily change +7, weekly change -17 [1] - Karara iron concentrate: latest price 882, daily change +6, weekly change -14 [1] - Roy Hill powder: latest price 789, daily change +7, weekly change -17, discounted to the futures price 868.4, import profit 55.24 [1] - KUMBA powder: latest price 861, daily change +7, weekly change -17 [1] - 57% Indian powder: latest price 613, daily change +6, weekly change -10 [1] - Atlas powder: latest price 725, daily change +2, weekly change -24 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate: latest price 982, daily change +6, weekly change +5 [1] Iron Ore Futures Information - i2701: latest price 764.5, daily change +7.5, weekly change -42.0, monthly spread 13.0, latest monthly spread value 56.7, daily change of spread +0.1, weekly change of spread +22.5 [1] - i2605: latest price 795.0, daily change +8.5, weekly change -17.0, monthly spread -30.5, latest monthly spread value 26.2, daily change of spread -0.9, weekly change of spread -2.5 [1] - i2609: latest price 777.5, daily change +8.0, weekly change -16.0, monthly spread 17.5, latest monthly spread value 43.7, daily change of spread -0.4, weekly change of spread -3.5 [1] - FE01: latest price 105.65, daily change +0.26, weekly change -1.74, monthly spread -3.38, latest monthly spread value -74.4, daily change of spread +2.6, weekly change of spread -60.6 [1] - FE05: latest price 103.66, daily change +0.37, weekly change -3.08, monthly spread 1.99, latest monthly spread value -29.2, daily change of spread -0.3, weekly change of spread -1.1 [1] - FE09: latest price 102.27, daily change +0.20, weekly change -3.08, monthly spread 1.39, latest monthly spread value -35.3, daily change of spread +1.6, weekly change of spread +0.9 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices slightly declined from their high levels. The current market is mainly dominated by macro and capital factors, and the macro sentiment has cooled this week, with iron ore prices being moderately overvalued [4]. - On the supply side, there has been a significant continuous increase, and the pattern of loose supply has continued. The port inventory of imported iron ore has been increasing rapidly. On the demand side, although the new construction of real - estate in December improved month - on - month, it is still at a low level. The growth rates of infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment have further declined month - on - month, and there is no significant improvement in domestic terminal steel demand [4]. - In the first half of the year, demand may fall short of expectations. Since the second half of 2025, domestic steel demand has been continuously declining. Against the high - base background of the first half of 2025, domestic steel demand is expected to contribute a decline in the first half of 2026. The weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals is expected to continue, and the high valuation of iron ore is unlikely to last [4][13]. - Overall, the rapid weakening of domestic steel demand is expected to dominate the medium - term iron ore prices. The fundamentals of iron ore itself have undergone significant changes. As iron ore prices decline from high levels, short - term macro and capital disturbances will increase, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Logic Analysis**: The market is dominated by macro and capital. Macro sentiment has cooled, and iron ore is moderately overvalued. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The weakening of fundamentals is expected to continue, and high valuation is hard to sustain [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: Fluctuate [4] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4] - **Options**: Wait and see [4] 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Global Iron Ore Shipment - In 2026 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3% or 11.7 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments are 17.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% or 3.6 million tons, and Brazil's weekly shipments are 6.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% or 3.6 million tons [7]. - Among the mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil, Rio Tinto has a year - on - year increase of 14% or 2.6 million tons, BHP has a year - on - year decrease of 2% or 0.3 million tons, FMG has a year - on - year increase of 6.5% or 0.7 million tons, and VALE has a year - on - year increase of 20% or 2.6 million tons [7]. - In 2025, the import of iron ore was 1.26 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 24 million tons. Since the third quarter of last year, the year - on - year increase in domestic imported iron ore has been continuously increasing [7]. 3.2.2 Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment - From 2026 to date, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments is 6.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38% or 5.3 million tons. The weekly average of non - mainstream iron ore shipments in Australia is 2.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% or 1 million tons, and the weekly average of non - mainstream iron ore shipments in Brazil is 1.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% or 0.1 million tons [9]. - Non - Australian and non - Brazilian global shipments may decline (except for Simandou). From 2023 - 2025, non - Australian and non - Brazilian mines have continuously contributed increments, with an average annual increment of over 20 million tons for three consecutive years [9]. - The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, with an annual increment of about 20 million tons. It is expected to enter the fast - lane of production release in 2027, but in 2026, it is still in the production ramping - up stage [9]. 3.2.3 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore has continued to increase significantly, and the steel mill inventory has increased slightly. As a result, the total inventory of domestic imported iron ore has increased by 3.5 million tons month - on - month. In the past more than a month, the total inventory of imported iron ore has increased by more than 17 million tons. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past 6 years, and the domestic iron ore supply - demand pattern of looseness has continued [11]. - The current total domestic iron element inventory is at a high level in the past 6 years, basically the same as in 2022 [11]. 3.2.4 Terminal Steel Demand - In December 2025, the new construction of real - estate decreased by 19% year - on - year, and the sales area decreased by 17% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased by 11% year - on - year. The real - estate market has improved month - on - month but is still at a low level, while the growth rates of infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment have declined significantly month - on - month [13]. - In terms of overseas demand, from January to November 2025, overseas iron ore consumption decreased by 1% or 10 million tons year - on - year, but overseas iron element consumption increased by 3% or 28 million tons year - on - year. Since the second quarter, overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level year - on - year and has continuously contributed increments. Among them, India's crude steel production from January to November increased by 10% or 14 million tons year - on - year, and it is expected to contribute an increment of 15 million tons for the whole year. Overseas India's crude steel demand remains at a relatively high level [13]. 3.3 Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 Imported Iron Ore Port Price - The report provides data on the price index of Platts iron ore, the price of PB powder at Qingdao Port, the price of Carajas fines at Qingdao Port, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade powder and the cash profit of steel mills [18]. 3.3.2 Imported Iron Ore Port Profit - The report shows the import profits of PB powder, Carajas fines, Super Special fines, Jinbuba, PB lump, and FMG [20]. 3.3.3 East China Mainstream Steel Mill Profit - It includes the cash profit of East China rebar, the cash profit of East China hot - rolled coil, the cost of East China hot - rolled coil, the cost of East China billet, and the cash cost of East China rebar [22]. 3.3.4 Domestic and Overseas US Dollar Spread - It involves the spread between SGX main contract and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the spread between East China hot metal and recycled steel [24]. 3.3.5 Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread - It includes the basis of the optimal delivery product against the 01, 05, and 09 contracts, and the 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 spreads [26]. 3.3.6 Global Four Major Mines' Shipment - The report presents the global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, VALE, BHP, FMG, and CSN, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [29]. 3.3.7 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - It shows the inventory of powder, lump, pellet, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore at the port [31].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡运行 | 现实格局偏弱，矿价延续震荡 | 说明： 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗低位运行，且淡季钢市矛盾在累积，需 求延续偏弱运行，相对利好则是节前钢厂补库。与此同时，国内港口到货高位回落，而矿商发运持续 减量，按船期推算后续到货将回落，带来矿石供应收缩，关注后续变化。目前来看，矿石供应收缩， 但库存高企，利好效应不强，同时需求表现偏弱，矿石基本面并未好转，矿价仍易承压，相对利好则 是钢厂补库与商品偏暖情绪，预计矿价维持震 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are easing but still pose concerns. Gold prices are approaching the $5000 mark. The U.S. economy shows strength, but geopolitical uncertainties and potential changes in the Fed chairperson may affect market sentiment. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][4]. - In the domestic market, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, which will promote the stable development of the capital market. The A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly final value was slightly revised up to 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years, supported by strong exports, reduced inventory drag, and consumer resilience. The core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% target. The 11 - month PCE price index was in line with market expectations, and the market priced the next interest rate cut in June. Geopolitical tensions have eased temporarily, but long - term concerns remain. The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.3, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield was basically flat, and gold and silver reached new highs while copper and oil prices declined [2]. - Domestic: There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The A - share market closed higher with a slight increase in trading volume. The market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $4900 for the first time, closing up 2.09% at $4938.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 3.86% at $96.22 per ounce. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties have increased the demand for hedging, pushing up precious metal prices. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks and concerns about the independence of the Fed are expected to keep gold and silver prices strong [4][5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper rebounded slightly. The spot market trading was poor, and the inventory increased. The Q3 2025 U.S. GDP growth rate was revised up, and geopolitical risks led to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment. Rio Tinto's Q4 production increased by 5% year - on - year. It is expected that copper prices will enter a weak oscillation in the short term, but the downside adjustment space may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24055 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The LME closed at $3137.5 per ton, up 0.64%. The U.S. economic data was mixed, and the geopolitical tension in Greenland eased. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly this week, but the de - stocking is expected to be difficult to continue with the arrival of the off - season. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate [8][9]. Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, up 1.8%. Overseas and domestic news has led to a rebound in alumina futures prices, but the actual supply impact is limited, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the rebound of alumina prices will not last, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22855 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The consumption improvement of cast aluminum is limited, the cost decline is limited, and the supply - side start - up is stable at a low level. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and it is expected to remain oscillating [11]. Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated horizontally during the day and strengthened at night, and LME zinc closed up. The U.S. economic performance is strong, the inflation meets expectations, and the dollar falls, boosting zinc prices. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the global zinc ore supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [12][13]. Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead oscillated. After the decline of lead prices slowed down, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm improved, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling. Environmental protection control in Shandong and Hebei has restricted the production of some enterprises, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate stably, but the upward driving force is not strong for now [14][15]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and strengthened at night, and LME tin oscillated horizontally. Geopolitical concerns have dissipated, and the U.S. economic data is strong, boosting risk appetite. The terminal order demand is sluggish, the downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and the supply has no new changes. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Steel and Iron Products - **Screw and Coil**: Steel futures oscillated. Affected by seasonal demand, market trading weakened. The output of five major steel products was stable, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory gradually increased. It is expected that steel prices will mainly oscillate [17]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. The central bank signaled monetary easing, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The pre - holiday restocking expectation provides some support, and it is expected that the futures price will oscillate [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment was weak and stable. The supply of upstream coal mines continued to resume production, and the demand of downstream steel mills was weak. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [19]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal 05 contract closed up 1.50%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed up 1.21%. Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase. The precipitation in central Brazil may affect the harvest, and the drought in Argentina has led to increased speculation. It is expected that the soybean meal will oscillate and rebound in the short term [20][21]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil 05 contract closed up 1.59%. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in January, but the U.S. biodiesel policy expectation and the improvement of palm oil export and production contraction support the price. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [22].

Steel Industry - The national rebar production increased by 9.25 thousand tons to 1.9955 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 254.2 thousand tons [2] - Social inventory rose by 77.1 thousand tons to 3.0312 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 433.7 thousand tons [2] - The overall rebar demand is strong externally but weak internally, with significant growth in overseas demand compensating for domestic shortfalls [2] Hot Rolled Steel - National hot rolled steel production decreased by 2.95 thousand tons to 3.0541 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 172.3 thousand tons [3] - Social inventory fell by 4.66 thousand tons to 2.8114 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 241.8 thousand tons [3] - Domestic demand for hot rolled steel is average, and overseas demand has declined [4] Iron Ore - Iron water production slightly increased by 0.09 thousand tons to 228.1 thousand tons, with steel mill profitability rising by 0.86% to 40.69% [5][18] - Global iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, with Australian shipments at 16.88 million tons, down 2.436 million tons week-on-week [5][18] - Port and steel mill inventories continue to accumulate, with increases of 2.08 million tons and 1.27 million tons respectively [19] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices remained stable for low-sulfur coal, while medium-sulfur coal prices increased by 100 yuan/ton [21] - Coking enterprises are experiencing production losses, with an average loss of 70 yuan/ton, leading to reduced production enthusiasm [20] - The overall demand for coke remains weak, with a slight increase in steel mill utilization rates [20] Scrap Steel - The national scrap steel price index rose by 0.6 yuan/ton to 2198.6 yuan/ton [22] - Scrap steel demand has decreased, with daily consumption falling by 0.47 thousand tons to 50.8 thousand tons [22][23] - Short-process steel mills are experiencing expanded losses, with electricity costs turning from profit to loss [22][23] Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon production slightly increased by 0.29% to 191.1 thousand tons, with demand supported by steel mills' final bidding before the holiday [24] - Silicon iron production decreased by 0.3% to 98.4 thousand tons, remaining at a five-year low [25] - Inventory levels for manganese silicon remain high, with a year-on-year increase of 22 thousand tons [24]