Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a recovery trend, with major indices mostly rising, driven by a shift in capital from high-valuation growth stocks to undervalued cyclical stocks and dividend assets, indicating an increasing attractiveness of defensive sectors [1][2] Group 1: Market Recovery Factors - The recent rebound in the A-share market is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, alleviation of concerns regarding the overseas AI bubble, and proactive domestic policies [2] - The strengthening of the RMB against the USD, which recently surpassed the 7.08 mark, is seen as a positive factor for the recovery of Chinese assets, enhancing the relative attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets for foreign investors [2] Group 2: December Market Outlook - Institutions believe that the A-share market is well-positioned for a cross-year rally in December, supported by the gradual easing of previous market disturbances and an anticipated increase in risk appetite [3] - The upcoming month is expected to be a critical observation window for domestic and international policies, with potential benefits for sectors like consumption and real estate [6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Historical data suggests that December to January is an optimal period for investors to position themselves for the cross-year rally, particularly in sectors where earnings forecasts are likely to meet or exceed expectations [4] - The technology growth sector is still viewed as a long-term mainstay, with expectations for a recovery in its upward trend as valuation adjustments are completed [5] Group 4: Sector Focus - The focus for the upcoming year-end market includes sectors such as robotics and brokerage firms, with consumer and real estate sectors also presenting potential short-term trading opportunities [6] - Defensive sectors, particularly high-dividend and consumer stocks, are recommended for short-term investment during the current market volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a recovery trend, with expectations for a favorable cross-year market in December as various disruptive factors gradually ease [2][3][5]. Market Overview - The A-share market showed a recovery last week, with major indices mostly rising, particularly in the TMT sector, which rebounded from previous declines [2]. - The overall market in November exhibited a rotation from high-valuation growth stocks to low-valuation cyclical stocks and dividend assets, indicating increased attractiveness of defensive sectors [2]. Factors Influencing Market Recovery - Multiple favorable factors are driving the recent market upturn, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, alleviation of concerns regarding the overseas AI bubble, and proactive domestic policies [3]. - The easing of overseas disruptive factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's statements and economic data, has contributed to a global risk asset recovery [3]. - The recent strengthening of the RMB, which has surpassed the 7.08 mark, is seen as a positive factor for the recovery of Chinese assets [3][4]. December Market Outlook - Institutions believe that the A-share market is well-positioned for a cross-year rally in December, supported by a gradual increase in market risk appetite [5]. - The market is expected to benefit from significant domestic and international policy observations, with a favorable macroeconomic outlook for 2026 [5]. - Historical trends suggest that December to January is a favorable period for investors to position themselves for the cross-year market, particularly in sectors with positive earnings forecasts [6]. Sector Focus - The technology growth sector is viewed as a long-term mainstay, with recent adjustments seen as a necessary correction of previous high valuations [7]. - Specific sectors such as robotics and brokerage firms are anticipated to be key players in the market leading up to the 2026 Spring Festival [7]. - Defensive sectors, particularly high-dividend and consumer stocks, are recommended for short-term investment during the current market volatility [7].

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 估值周观察(11月第5期) 科技主导"反弹周" 策略研究 · 专题报告 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 近一周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）海外市场普遍反弹，估值随股价修复。美股领涨，主要指数均上涨3%以上，其中纳斯达克100涨幅 最显著（+4.93%）。欧元区中，德国表现突出；亚洲市场整体温和上涨，恒生科技和日经225涨幅超3%，估值随股价修复。除道琼斯 工业指数，美股主要指数PE扩张均超过1x；纳斯达克、日经225、韩国综合指数、恒生科技PE扩张幅度超过2x。从估值分位数看，标 普500和法国CAC40位于历史较高水平，印度SENSEX30和恒生科技指数处于较低区间。 • 近一周(2025.11.24-2025.11.28)，A ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 估值周观察(11月第5期) 科技主导"反弹周" 策略研究 · 专题报告 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 近一周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）海外市场普遍反弹，估值随股价修复。美股领涨，主要指数均上涨3%以上，其中纳斯达克100涨幅 最显著（+4.93%）。欧元区中，德国表现突出；亚洲市场整体温和上涨，恒生科技和日经225涨幅超3%，估值随股价修复。除道琼斯 工业指数，美股主要指数PE扩张均超过1x；纳斯达克、日经225、韩国综合指数、恒生科技PE扩张幅度超过2x。从估值分位数看，标 普500和法国CAC40位于历史较高水平，印度SENSEX30和恒生科技指数处于较低区间。 • 近一周(2025.11.24-2025.11.28)，A ...

- The report discusses a **cycle analysis model**, which observes the market's monthly upward trend since early 2024, despite recent adjustments and a temporary break below the rising channel. This model suggests that the overall risk remains controllable, even if there is a future pullback, as the high-frequency temperature gauge of major broad-based indices remains below 20, indicating a relatively low level [1][9] - The **industry divergence indicator** is highlighted, showing that the divergence among primary industries has dropped to a historically low level. Historically, this indicator tends to rise again when the market restarts, potentially signaling the emergence of a sustainable market theme. The report notes that the TMT sector, which previously adjusted, is showing signs of renewed capital attention [2][9] - The **Four-Drive Model** provides insights into specific sectors. It identifies potential rebounds in the small-cap growth sector, coal sector, semiconductor materials and equipment sector, and sci-tech materials sector. These sectors are noted for signals such as low-cycle absorption, volume contraction during adjustments, and signs of stabilization or rebound after significant corrections [3][6][11]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial system is undergoing profound changes, marked by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, which signal a significant shift in monetary policy and its implications for global economic coordination and financial governance [1][13]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025, marking its first rate cut since 2025 [1][13]. - On October 29, 2025, the Fed further lowered the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, totaling a 50 basis point reduction for the year, indicating a critical turning point in its monetary policy cycle [1][13]. - This shift is driven by both domestic economic conditions and the need to address global economic slowdown and inflation dynamics [1][13]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Labor Market - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August 2025, the highest in nearly four years, indicating a complex interplay of cyclical and structural economic challenges [2][14]. - The number of non-farm payroll jobs added has been significantly revised down, with a reduction of 911,000 jobs from April 2024 to March 2025, highlighting deeper adjustments in the labor market than previously reported [2][14]. - The Fed's acknowledgment of increased risks in the labor market reflects a broader concern about potential economic recession [2][14]. Group 3: Inflation Dynamics - Despite inflation levels remaining above the Fed's 2% target, the year-on-year increase has shown a declining trend for five consecutive months, indicating a complex inflationary environment [3][15]. - The current economic backdrop resembles a "stagflation" scenario, where economic growth slows while inflation remains relatively high, complicating monetary policy decisions [3][15]. - The Fed's updated forecasts suggest a gradual return to the 2% inflation target by 2028, providing a theoretical basis for the recent rate cuts [3][15]. Group 4: Global Economic Impact - The Fed's monetary policy adjustments are expected to have significant international repercussions, influencing capital flows and financing conditions in emerging markets and developing economies [4][22]. - The interconnectedness of the global financial system necessitates that U.S. monetary policy considers its international effects, particularly in light of slowing growth among major trading partners [5][18]. - The Fed's actions may catalyze a shift towards a more diversified international monetary system, as changes in dollar liquidity conditions affect financing costs in emerging markets [4][22]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Asset Pricing - The initial market reactions to the Fed's rate cuts have been volatile, with significant fluctuations in stock indices and bond yields, reflecting investor uncertainty about the economic outlook [7][23]. - Historical patterns suggest that preventive rate cuts can boost stock market performance, yet current economic fundamentals may limit the effectiveness of such measures [7][23]. - The pricing mechanisms for commodities and other assets are undergoing adjustments, with gold prices surging in response to the anticipated monetary policy changes [7][24]. Group 6: Capital Flow and Investment Strategies - The Fed's rate cuts are likely to alter global capital flow patterns, with a potential shift of investments from dollar-denominated assets to emerging markets seeking higher returns [6][20]. - Recent data indicates a reversal in foreign investment trends in China, with significant net inflows into domestic stocks and funds, reflecting increased global capital interest [6][25]. - Investment strategies will need to adapt to the changing risk-return profiles of various asset classes, necessitating a reevaluation of traditional asset allocation models [6][25].

晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投 资策略报告 工企利润短期波动，后续关注政策部署——2025 年 1-10 月工业企业效益数据 点评 行业研究 把握创新与出海机遇，关注新技术空间——医药生物行业 2026 年度投资策略 报告 大模型厂商发力 C 端应用，关注 AI 应用商业化落地——计算机行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 1、 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant transformation in the supply structure of the primary market for offshore bonds, with a notable shift from traditional city investment bonds to industry bonds, government bonds, and TMT bonds as the new mainstays [3][10] - The offshore bond market has seen a continuous expansion, with a total issuance of 1.24 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, although net financing from city investment bonds has sharply declined to only 422 million yuan [3][10] - The secondary market has experienced a decline in yields, with the 3-year offshore bond yield dropping approximately 40 basis points, outperforming domestic bonds [3][17] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the offshore bond market will continue to thrive in 2026, driven by two major changes: narrowing interest rate spreads and a shift in supply dynamics, necessitating more refined selection criteria for bonds [3][4] - The narrowing of the offshore-onshore interest rate spread has reached historical lows, with sovereign bonds at 10-25 basis points and credit bonds at 40-65 basis points, making it challenging to find excess returns [3][4] - The report emphasizes the need to explore investment opportunities in foreign government bonds and Hong Kong government bonds due to limited yield spread in domestic government bonds [3][48] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for Chinese dollar bonds, with expectations of 2-3 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, targeting a rate of 2.75-3.00% [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on investment-grade dollar bonds and short-term securities to capture certainty in returns, as the credit risk has eased but remains present [5][6] - The investment strategy for 2026 includes a focus on high-grade offshore bonds, with an emphasis on long-duration bonds for insurance companies and high-grade foreign financial bonds for public funds [5][6] Group 4 - The report outlines the expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" program, which has significantly enhanced market liquidity and investor participation [29][33] - The trading volume of RMB debt instruments has reached 2.13 trillion yuan by October 2025, accounting for over 90% of the total volume in 2024, indicating a robust market activity [29][33] - The report notes that the expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" has opened new channels for domestic investors to diversify their asset allocation [29][33]

和讯自选股写手 风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称 板块名称 ["TMT","AI"] TMT调整、AI行情扩散、交易环境 看多看空 前期TMT调整在滚动收益差、成交占比、拥挤度、历史对比等方面都较为充分；后续从 海外映射、产业叙事、交易环境看，重视AI行情向中下游软件应用的扩散，产业进展对AI中下游 催化显著，且岁末年初市场环境有利。 兴业证券11月23日报告指出，前期TMT调整较为充分。从滚动收益差看，TMT相对全A超额收益大幅收 敛；成交占比显示交易拥挤度充分释放；多数AI细分方向拥挤度回落至历史低位；与历史对比，本轮 调整在时间和空间上已较充分。 后续重视AI行情向中下游软件应用扩散。11月以来，中美AI行情均向 中下游扩散，受产业叙事转变和全球AI应用进展推动。产业进展对AI中下游 ...

Group 1 - The current market trend is shifting back to the "technology growth" theme, with a mid-term focus on the technology sector [1] - Technology-weighted stocks have significantly contributed to the current bull market, with notable market capitalization growth in sectors such as electronics, communications, and power equipment [1] - The TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector remains relatively under-traded, indicating that the valuation differentiation between growth and value is not extreme [1] Group 2 - The AI industry trend is expected to drive attention towards underperforming technology areas such as AI applications, consumer electronics, and humanoid robots by 2026 [1] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI continues to remain above the overall manufacturing level, indicating a "polarization" in performance between technology companies and traditional industries [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 ETF (588120) tracks the Sci-Tech 100 Index (000698), which has a daily fluctuation limit of 20%, reflecting the performance of 100 representative innovative companies in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1]