后非瘟时代，随着行业逐步向优势产能集中、产能去化放缓、猪价波动幅度趋弱，周期逐步弱化，生猪 养殖业进入微利时代。同时，防疫水平抬升及养殖效率优化共同驱动全行业成本中枢下移，但现阶段不 同养殖主体之间成本方差较大，单公斤成本能拉开2元/千克甚至更高的差距，具备成本优势和疫病防控 优势的规模养殖主体仍有望获取超额利润并实现盈利累积。 看得见的手如何引导行业变化? 年初以来猪价长期在成本线以上运行，产业整体保持着较好盈利。能繁母猪产能自2025年4月开始高位 回升，截止5月底，我国能繁母猪存栏约4042万头，高于正常保有量3900万头的基准线。2025年年中以 来，农业农村部、发改委等相关部门采取多种措施引导产能调控，促进生猪养殖业高质量发展——通过 引导降重、限制二育销售等方式调整短期生猪供应;严控新增产能，引导能繁调减100万头左右至3950万 头，预计2026年的生猪供需格局亦将显著改善;长期看，则通过环保政策、融资渠道收紧等多种方式引 导能繁母猪降至合理水平。 招商证券主要观点如下： 政策端的变与不变：民生导向&高质量发展并重 过往十多年来，在环保政策执行及非瘟大考下，生猪养殖业低效产能加速退出，行业养殖效 ...

Group 1 - The company TianKang Biological (SZ 002100) announced that its 26th temporary board meeting of the 8th session was held on August 1, 2025, via communication voting [1] - The meeting reviewed documents including the proposal for the estimated financing guarantee amount for the year 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, the company's revenue composition is as follows: pig farming accounts for 35.84%, feed accounts for 31.12%, corn storage industry accounts for 12.48%, agricultural product processing accounts for 9.73%, and veterinary drugs account for 5.81% [1]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4][49]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the "anti-involution" process in the pig farming industry and suggests seizing investment opportunities in high-quality pig farming companies. It highlights the expected improvement in industry profitability and stability due to capacity control measures [3][4]. - The report also notes that the pet food industry is experiencing a resurgence, with expectations for mid-year reports to positively impact certain companies, despite potential challenges from U.S.-China trade tensions affecting Q2 export performance [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 3.0%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 1.8%. The top five gainers included Shenyuan Biological (+27.7%) and Andeli (+13.6%), while the top five losers included Dayu Water-saving (-10.3%) and ST Tianshan (-10.0%) [3][4]. Pig Farming - The average price of external three yuan pigs was 14.02 yuan/kg as of August 3, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.6%. The average weight of market pigs was 127.98 kg, down 0.50 kg from the previous week. The price of weaned piglets fell slightly to 429 yuan/head, down 11 yuan from the previous week [3][4]. - The report stresses the need to focus on high-quality pig farming companies as the industry moves towards a phase of stable and high-quality development, with expected improvements in profitability and valuation for leading companies like Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Wens Foodstuffs [3][4]. Poultry Farming - For white feather broilers, the average selling price of commercial broiler chicks rose to 2.33 yuan/chick, a week-on-week increase of 45.6%. The average selling price of white feather broiler meat was 3.35 yuan/kg, up 2.2% week-on-week [3][4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability for yellow feather broilers as the traditional consumption peak season approaches, suggesting a focus on companies like Lihua Stock [3][4]. Animal Health - The report indicates a recovery in animal health companies' performance due to improved profitability in pig farming and rising demand for vaccines. The industry saw a 15.8% year-on-year increase in vaccine approvals in the first five months of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies like Huisheng Biological and Kexin Biological are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of this trend [3][4].

Macro Economic Insights - The US labor market is showing signs of weakness, with July non-farm employment data revealing an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations of 104,000 [3][4] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations, while average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts [3][4][5] - The labor force participation rate is approximately 62.2%, indicating a decline in participation alongside a rising unemployment rate, suggesting a cooling labor market [5][6] Industry Trends - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a downturn, with PMI production dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, and new orders and export orders also declining [11][13] - The "anti-involution" trend is positively impacting commodity prices, with expectations for a rebound in July PPI [11][13] - The construction industry is facing a slowdown in infrastructure investment, while the service sector remains relatively stable, buoyed by summer travel and consumption [14] Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a self-driven investment approach, focusing on technology as a primary sector for growth [16][18] - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to drive cyclical and counter-cyclical trades, particularly in PPI recovery [19] - The TMT sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations for a rebound in semiconductor cycles and AI-driven demand [20][21] Company-Specific Insights - The industrial X-ray inspection market is poised for structural growth, driven by increasing demand in electronics and lithium battery sectors [52][53] - The first public REIT for natural gas power generation by a central enterprise has been successfully launched, indicating a positive trend for REITs in the energy sector [57][59] - The biodegradable food packaging market is projected to grow significantly, driven by increasing demand and supportive policies against plastic waste [55]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The pork market is experiencing an oversupply, leading to a continued decline in pork prices. The average price of external three yuan pigs is 14.13 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.09% [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the need for quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in the pig industry, suggesting that outdated production capacity will gradually be eliminated [2][13] - The report highlights the potential benefits of genetically modified crops in increasing yield and self-sufficiency rates for key varieties, with specific companies recommended for investment [12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - A meeting was held to discuss increasing crop yields in Northeast China, which is crucial for national food security. The region has seen improvements in planting density and technology, contributing to stable yield increases [1] - Companies such as Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these developments, along with seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Pig Farming - The average price of pigs has shown a downward trend, with the average weight of slaughtered pigs decreasing for eight consecutive weeks. The number of breeding sows has also decreased slightly [2][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including DeKang Agriculture and Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. [13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2406.65 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.09% [27] - Wheat: The average price is 2440.86 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.08% [30] - Rice: The average price of japonica rice is 2912.00 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.14% [35] - Soybeans: The average price is 3926.32 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [40] - Cotton: The average price is 15410.00 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.02% [47] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.73 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% [53] - The average price of vitamin E is 68.00 yuan/kg, remaining stable week-on-week [62]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the low prices of piglets and the high average weight of market pigs, indicating a significant expectation gap in the pig sector [1][2] - The dairy and beef sectors are experiencing a potential new cycle, with a focus on the recovery of milk prices and the initiation of a beef super cycle [3][4] - The pet food sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in exports, reflecting the growth of the pet economy [5][6] - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports and demand recovery, particularly in the white and egg-laying chicken segments [7][8] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the importance of biological breeding strategies [9][10] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to market share growth and consistent performance of leading companies like Haida Group [11][12] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of August 2, the average price of pigs is 14.35 CNY/kg, down 3.1% from the previous week, with a profit of approximately 141 CNY per head for self-breeding [1][12] - The price of piglets has reached a new low for the year, with 7kg piglets priced at 429 CNY/head [1][12] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong profitability in the pig sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][13] Beef Sector - The average price of live cattle is 26.49 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [3][14] - The report indicates that the dairy industry is nearing the end of a capacity reduction phase, with significant losses expected to drive a rebound in milk prices [4][15] Pet Sector - Domestic brands in the pet food market are growing rapidly, with notable sales figures reported for cat and dog food [5][16] - Exports of pet food have increased, with a total of 16.79 million tons exported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [5][16] Poultry Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of breeding imports and the potential for price increases in yellow chickens due to recovering demand [6][7] - The average price of egg-laying chickens is expected to remain high due to import restrictions [7][21] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving food security through improved agricultural practices and the promotion of biotechnology [9][23] - Key recommendations include investing in leading seed companies and agricultural resource firms [9][23] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its increasing market share and strong performance [11][24] - The report notes a significant recovery in the aquaculture and feed sectors after a prolonged downturn [11][24]

Group 1 - The article discusses the four inflation decline cycles since 1993, with the current cycle (2022-2024) influenced by the real estate downturn, local government debt, and rapid supply growth in certain industries [1][10][45] - The current deflation index briefly touched bottom in Q1 2024 but remains weak, with Q2 2024 hitting a low of -1.2% [1][10][11] - The CRB index and the South China index show diverging trends, indicating that the current low inflation is primarily driven by domestic pricing of bulk commodities [1][13][54] Group 2 - The significant decline in domestic pricing of commodities in Q3 2024 is attributed to the pressure on construction demand due to debt issues, while the decline in Q2 2025 is linked to an oversupply of raw materials following a brief recovery in the real estate sector [2][16][17] - The economic "supply-demand ratio" simulated for Q3 2024 and Q2 2025 is 1.63 and 1.49, respectively, indicating mismatches in supply and demand in the construction and emerging industries [2][16][57] Group 3 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, four key macroeconomic features are highlighted: continued moderate slowdown in the US and Europe, geopolitical disturbances affecting commodities, accelerated domestic infrastructure projects, and the potential for improved supply-demand relationships due to "anti-involution" policies [2][19][61] - The article suggests that the pressure on price levels may have peaked, with the Q2 2024 deflation index likely being the lowest point of this cycle [2][19][61] Group 4 - Specific indicators for PPI include favorable base effects in the second half of the year, leading indicators suggesting continued recovery in industrial prices, and key commodity prices remaining at relatively low historical levels [3][23][24] - The internal drivers of PPI have changed, with new materials and technologies gaining significance in influencing price movements since 2021 [3][28][29] Group 5 - The article emphasizes the importance of housing prices, noting that the national second-hand housing prices have not yet stabilized, which could constrain inflation and consumer spending [6][34][35] - The risk premium in the real estate market has reached a historical high, suggesting a potential for price stabilization in the short term [6][34][36] Group 6 - The comprehensive assessment of price data for the second half of the year indicates a potential mild increase in PPI and CPI, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a return to positive inflation levels by Q4 2024 [7][38][39] - Structural opportunities in the price domain include the expansion of the black industrial chain driven by construction demand, the impact of "anti-involution" policies on manufacturing prices, and supply constraints in key commodities due to global supply chain shifts [7][42][41]

Group 1: Policy Support and Market Innovation - Recent policies have increased support for agricultural product circulation and the breeding industry, promoting structural optimization within the industry [1] - The Yunnan Free Trade Zone has made policy breakthroughs in capacity pre-sale and order trading, injecting vitality into the bulk commodity market [2] - The new regulations support the trading of specialty agricultural products, enhancing market liquidity and creating a collaborative supply chain ecosystem [2] Group 2: Agricultural Industry Developments - The Yunnan fresh-cut flower industry is projected to reach a production volume of 20.6 billion stems in 2024, capturing 70% of the national market share [2] - The coffee industry in Yunnan has adopted a dual-track trading model, exporting to 29 countries and attracting brands like Starbucks to establish exclusive supply chains [2] - The integration of policy and industry is expected to transform regional resources into international competitive advantages [2] Group 3: Swine Industry Transition - The swine breeding industry is shifting from scale expansion to cost competition, with a focus on rational development and strict control of new capacity [3] - As of Q2 2025, the national breeding sow inventory is at 40.43 million heads, nearing the upper limit of the capacity control green zone [3] - Leading companies like Muyuan Foods have reduced breeding sow inventory over two consecutive quarters, achieving a cost advantage with breeding costs at 12-12.2 yuan/kg [3] Group 4: Market Challenges and Trends - Small and medium-sized farmers are facing pressure, with some reporting losses of 200 yuan per head due to falling pig prices and tightened quarantine regulations [3] - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with large enterprises using low-protein feed and smart farming to lower production costs and improve efficiency [3] - The swine market is expected to enter a "micro-profit balance" phase, with prices likely to fluctuate around the cost line of 14 yuan/kg [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape of China's pig farming industry, highlighting the regional distribution of listed companies and the market concentration levels [1][4][7]. Group 1: Regional Competition Landscape - The majority of listed pig farming companies are located in southern China, particularly in Guangdong and Sichuan provinces, with major players like Wen's Foodstuffs and Jinxinnong in Guangdong, and New Hope and Juxing Agriculture in Sichuan [1]. Group 2: Market Entry Progression - The entry of competitors into the pig farming market occurred primarily between 1990 and 2000, with Wen's Foodstuffs entering around 1993 and Muyuan Foods entering later in 2000 [3]. Group 3: Competitive Structure - The pig farming industry has seen accelerated entry of industrial capital, leading to a trend of smallholder exit. The scale of pig farming has surpassed 70%, with the top 20 companies expected to hold a market share of 30.7% by 2024. Notably, Muyuan Foods is projected to exceed 70 million pigs, while Wen's Foodstuffs is expected to surpass 30 million pigs in output for the first time [4]. Group 4: Market Concentration - The pig farming industry in China exhibits a "small enterprises, large market" characteristic, with a market size exceeding one trillion yuan but low concentration. The CR3, CR5, and CR10 market concentration ratios are 17.01%, 20.93%, and 25.59% respectively for 2024 [7]. Group 5: Competitive State Summary - The industry is characterized by a large number of players and intense competition, with a clear and transparent pork market price. The bargaining power of suppliers, particularly feed and breeding stock suppliers, is relatively weak. The consumer bargaining power in the pork market is also low, influenced primarily by supply and demand dynamics. The entry into the pig farming industry is heavily dependent on capital availability, with significant capital influx during price surges and exits during price declines. The threat from substitutes like chicken, duck, and beef is minimal due to the entrenched consumption habits favoring pork in China [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent supply-side policies in the pig farming industry aim to stabilize pig prices and market conditions, with a focus on reducing breeding stock and controlling output weight, leading to a gradual improvement in production capacity regulation [1][6]. Industry Overview - The pig farming industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to cost efficiency, with leading companies gaining significant advantages [1][6]. - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase due to stricter environmental regulations and production capacity controls [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The number of pigs undergoing secondary fattening is decreasing due to tightened supply, and profitability for secondary fattening farmers has significantly declined [3][4]. - As of July, the average monthly price of pigs was approximately 14.6 yuan/kg, down 1.1 yuan/kg from January and 4.3 yuan/kg from the previous year [3][4]. - The profitability for self-breeding farmers has dropped from 350 yuan/head at the beginning of the year to around 113 yuan/head by July [4]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have emphasized the need to control the number of breeding sows and limit secondary fattening, with specific weight controls for pigs being implemented [5][6]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has held meetings with leading enterprises to enforce these production capacity regulations [6][9]. Cost Management - Leading companies are focusing on reducing production costs, with major players like Muyuan and Wens aiming for costs as low as 12 yuan/kg by the end of the year [7][8]. - The production efficiency of leading firms has improved significantly, with PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) reaching between 25 to 32 in top companies [6][7]. Future Outlook - The pig farming industry is expected to enter a phase of "micro-profit balance and reduced volatility" in the second half of the year, with supply pressures potentially exceeding demand [10][11]. - The national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.43 million heads, slightly above the normal level, indicating a need for continued capacity regulation [8].