Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have announced measures to support foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions, enhancing the attractiveness of China's bond market to these investors [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Repurchase Business - The bond repurchase business allows financial institutions to conduct short-term capital financing using bonds as collateral, which is a widely used liquidity management tool internationally [1]. - The cumulative transaction volume of bond repurchases in China reached 14.88 trillion yuan in the first eight months of this year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [1]. - Since 2015, certain foreign sovereign institutions and clearing banks have been able to engage in bond repurchase transactions, but the recent announcement expands this capability to a broader range of foreign institutional investors [1][2]. Group 2: Market Development and Internationalization - The opening of the bond repurchase market is expected to enhance the international competitiveness and influence of the renminbi, while also solidifying Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [2]. - The People's Bank of China has been actively supporting the development of Hong Kong as an international financial hub, promoting initiatives like the "Bond Connect" and optimizing business operation mechanisms to enhance connectivity between onshore and offshore financial markets [2]. - As of the end of August, China's bond market had a total balance of 192 trillion yuan, ranking second globally, with bond issuance exceeding 59 trillion yuan in the first eight months of the year, a 14% year-on-year increase [3]. Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Confidence - China's bond market has seen significant international engagement, with 1,170 foreign institutions from over 80 countries holding approximately 4 trillion yuan in bonds as of the end of August [3]. - The inclusion of Chinese bonds in major international indices, such as Bloomberg Barclays and FTSE Russell, has increased global investor confidence, with the proportion of Chinese bonds in these indices rising to second and third globally, respectively [3].

Group 1 - European bond yields collectively declined on September 26, with the UK 10-year government bond yield falling by 1.1 basis points to 4.744% [1] - The French 10-year government bond yield decreased by 3.3 basis points to 3.567% [1] - The German 10-year government bond yield dropped by 2.8 basis points to 2.744% [1] - The Italian 10-year government bond yield fell by 2.6 basis points to 3.578% [1] - The Spanish 10-year government bond yield decreased by 2.4 basis points to 3.309% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates that as of August 2025, 1,170 foreign institutions from 80 countries and regions have entered the Chinese bond market, holding a total of approximately 4 trillion RMB in bonds [1] Group 1: Market Opening and Growth - The People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange report that the opening of the Chinese bond market to foreign investors has achieved positive results, with an increase in both the number of foreign institutional investors and the scale of bond holdings [1] - The demand for liquidity management through bond repurchase transactions has been steadily increasing among foreign institutional investors [1] Group 2: Bond Repurchase Business - Since 2015, the People's Bank of China has been promoting the opening of the bond repurchase business in the interbank bond market, allowing foreign sovereign institutions, offshore RMB clearing banks, and foreign participating banks to engage in bond repurchase transactions [1] - In 2025, a joint offshore repurchase business was launched with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, targeting bonds under the "Bond Connect" northbound scheme [1] - On September 26, a joint announcement was made to support foreign institutional investors conducting bond repurchase transactions in the Chinese bond market [1]

Core Insights - The German 10-year government bond yield decreased by 2.8 basis points to 2.746% as of the end of trading on September 26 [1] - The PCE inflation index favored by the Federal Reserve showed little reaction after its release, continuing a downward trend that began in the Asia-Pacific trading session [1] - The 2-year German bond yield fell by 0.9 basis points to 3.030%, while the 30-year yield decreased by 1.3 basis points to 3.328% [1] Summary by Category - **Bond Yields** - The 10-year German bond yield experienced a cumulative decline of 0.2 basis points this week, trading within a range of 2.780%-2.728% [1] - The 2-year yield had a cumulative increase of 0.7 basis points this week, trading between 2.007%-2.048% [1] - The 30-year yield saw a cumulative drop of 0.8 basis points this week [1] - **Market Movements** - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds decreased by 1.869 basis points, now at +71.448 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 0.642 basis points this week [1] - The bond market exhibited a pattern of rising and then falling yields, particularly noted on September 25-26 [1]

近年来，中国债券市场对外开放取得积极成效，境外机构投资者投资中国债券市场的数量和持债规模扩 大，通过债券回购业务开展流动性管理的需求不断增加。截至2025年8月末，共有来自80个国家和地区 的1170家境外机构进入中国债券市场，持债总量约4万亿元人民币。中国人民银行有序推动银行间债券 市场债券回购业务对外开放，自2015年起，支持境外主权类机构、境外人民币业务清算行和境外参加行 在银行间市场开展债券回购业务；2025年，与香港金管局共同推出以"债券通"北向通债券为标的的离岸 回购业务。 中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇局进一步支持各类境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务，不仅有利 于满足市场需求，进一步增强人民币债券资产吸引力，也有利于优化合格境外投资者制度，巩固提升香 港国际金融中心地位，助力在岸离岸人民币市场协同发展。业务模式上，中国人民银行深入总结境内外 回购市场实践，加强银行间市场债券回购机制和国际市场通行做法衔接，实现标的债券过户和可使用， 为境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务提供更大便利，也有利于促进优化境内债券回购业务机制。 下一步，中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇局将继续深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange aims to support foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions in the Chinese bond market, marking a significant milestone in the high-level opening of the market [1][2]. Group 1: Announcement Details - The announcement allows all foreign institutional investors, including central banks, sovereign wealth funds, commercial banks, and asset management firms, to participate in bond repurchase transactions in the interbank bond market [1][2]. - The initiative is designed to meet the liquidity management needs of foreign investors and promote connectivity between onshore and offshore financial markets [2][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - As of August 2025, the Chinese bond market has a total balance of 192 trillion RMB, ranking second globally, with a bond issuance scale exceeding 59 trillion RMB from January to August 2025, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth [2][3]. - The international influence and attractiveness of the Chinese bond market have significantly increased, with Chinese bonds included in major international indices, such as Bloomberg Barclays and FTSE Russell, indicating strong global investor confidence in RMB-denominated assets [2][3]. Group 3: Operational Changes - The announcement aligns with international practices by allowing the transfer of collateralized bonds in repurchase agreements, which enhances the appeal of the Chinese bond market to foreign investors [4][5]. - The transition to this new operational model will take place over a 12-month period, allowing existing foreign investors to continue using the previous model during the transition [5]. Group 4: Regulatory Framework - The regulatory framework emphasizes a balance between openness and security, ensuring robust management of transactions, custody, settlement, and foreign exchange processes for foreign institutional investors [6]. - The initial phase of bond repurchase transactions will utilize existing market mechanisms, with selected market makers required to demonstrate strong funding and bond quoting capabilities [6].

Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - In the first three quarters of 2025, the bond market yield showed an "N"-shaped trend. Credit bond yields fluctuated similarly to government bond yields, with overall wide - range volatile upward movement. Credit spreads first narrowed and then widened slightly. Default risk continued to decline, with default entities concentrated in real - estate bonds, mainly private enterprises. The amount of credit bonds with a downgraded implied rating in the ChinaBond market increased year - on - year, while the amount of upgraded ones was lower than the same period last year [9][37][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Valuation Curve: Yields Fluctuated Widely and Rose - As of September 23, 2025, the yields of 1 - year Treasury bonds, 10 - year Treasury bonds, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds changed by 30BP, 20BP, and 30BP respectively. The yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by 22BP, 13BP, 8BP, and - 25BP respectively. The credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - narrowed by 11BP, 21BP, 26BP, and 59BP respectively. Overall, the yields of medium - short - term and long - term interest - rate bonds and most credit bonds increased, and the credit spreads of various varieties narrowed, with lower - grade and shorter - term credit spreads narrowing more. The 10 - 1 curve flattened [10]. Treasury Bond Yields Presented an "N"-shaped Trend - **January - mid - March**: At the beginning of the year, the central bank suspended Treasury bond trading and reduced open - market investment to stabilize the exchange rate. The tightened capital led to an upward trend in bond market yields. After the Two Sessions, the market adjusted its expectations, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield reached a high of 1.90% [11][12]. - **Late March - April**: The capital became looser, and the Sino - US tariff "tug - of - war" began. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped to the 1.63% - 1.67% range [16]. - **May - early July**: In early May, the central bank's RRR cut and interest rate cut, along with positive results from tariff negotiations, led to a slight increase in long - end interest - rate bond yields. In June, the central bank's reverse - repurchase operations improved the capital situation, and bond yields fluctuated downward [16]. - **Mid - July - September**: The "anti - involution" policy raised inflation expectations, the equity market strengthened, and the bond market was suppressed. Bond yields rose, but short - end yields were stable, resulting in a "bear steep" pattern [16]. Credit Spreads - Credit Spreads of All Grades First Narrowed and Then Widened - **January - mid - March**: At the beginning of January, interest - rate bonds quickly adjusted upward, and credit spreads were passively narrowed. Before the Two Sessions, the market expected an RRR cut and interest rate cut, and credit spreads widened briefly. After the Two Sessions, credit spreads narrowed rapidly again [17]. - **Late March - April**: The bond market recovered quickly, and credit spreads widened slightly [17]. - **May**: Credit spreads narrowed to the lowest point of the year due to the implementation of monetary policy tools and looser capital [17]. - **June - early July**: Short - end Treasury bond yields declined, and credit spreads first widened slightly and then narrowed [17]. - **Mid - July - September**: The bond market adjusted, and credit spreads widened slightly [17]. The Risk of Downgraded Implied Rating in the ChinaBond Market Increased - In the first three quarters of 2025, the amount of credit bonds with a downgraded implied rating in the ChinaBond market was 764.1 billion, a significant year - on - year increase. The amount of upgraded credit bonds was 358 billion, significantly lower than the same period last year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upgraded and downgraded samples decreased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [21]. Default: Default Risk Decreased, and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Declined - In the first three quarters of 2025, there were 3 new first - time default issuers. According to the broad default definition, the default amount was 6 billion, and the default rate was 0.01%, with the annualized default rate decreasing significantly compared to previous years. Default entities were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds, mostly private enterprises. The real - estate bond default rate was 0.2%, and the default scale and annualized default rate decreased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The private enterprise default rate was 0.5%, and the annualized default rate continued to decline quarter - on - quarter [24][31]. Recovery Rate Remained Low - In the first three quarters of 2025, defaulted bonds recovered 20.76 billion in principal. From 2014 to the present, defaulted bonds have repaid 124.7 billion in principal, and the repayment rate of overdue principal was 11.9% [34].

智通财经APP获悉，9月26日，中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇局联合发布公告，支持可在中国 债券市场开展债券现券交易的境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务，公告自发布之日起施行，有关负责人 就公告答记者问。公告进一步满足境外机构投资者通过债券回购开展流动性管理的需求，促进在岸和离 岸金融市场互联互通，推动中国债券市场高水平对外开放。 《公告》发布后，银行间债券市场的境外机构投资者均可参与债券回购业务，包括通过直接入市和"债 券通"渠道入市的全部境外机构投资者。投资者类型包括：境外中央银行或货币当局、国际金融组织、 主权财富基金;境外商业银行、保险公司、证券公司、基金管理公司、期货公司、信托公司及其他资产 管理机构等各类金融机构，以及养老基金、慈善基金、捐赠基金等中长期机构投资者。 在风险防范方面，有关负责人指，公告对境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务加强在交易、托管、结算、 汇兑等环节的设计，实现资金闭环管理，并通过交易托管数据报告等方式，强化穿透式监管和监测。 中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇局进一步支持各类境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务，不仅有利 于满足市场需求，进一步增强人民币债券资产吸引力，也有利于优化合 ...

近年来，中国债券市场对外开放取得积极成效，境外机构投资者投资中国债券市场的数量和持债规模扩 大，通过债券回购业务开展流动性管理的需求不断增加。截至2025年8月末，共有来自80个国家和地区 的1170家境外机构进入中国债券市场，持债总量约4万亿元人民币。中国人民银行有序推动银行间债券 市场债券回购业务对外开放，自2015年起，支持境外主权类机构、境外人民币业务清算行和境外参加行 在银行间市场开展债券回购业务；2025年，与香港金管局共同推出以"债券通"北向通债券为标的的离岸 回购业务。 中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇局进一步支持各类境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务，不仅有利 于满足市场需求，进一步增强人民币债券资产吸引力，也有利于优化合格境外投资者制度，巩固提升香 港国际金融中心地位，助力在岸离岸人民币市场协同发展。业务模式上，中国人民银行深入总结境内外 回购市场实践，加强银行间市场债券回购机制和国际市场通行做法衔接，实现标的债券过户和可使用， 为境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务提供更大便利，也有利于促进优化境内债券回购业务机制。 下一步，中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇局将继续深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院关 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current bond market is intertwined with multiple factors. The economic data in August indicates that the pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" may continue, and the economic growth in the third quarter is under pressure. Coupled with the increasing expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases, it provides some support for the current bond market. However, in the absence of incremental positive factors, the market is sensitive to negative news. The uncertainty of the new regulations on public bond funds continues to disrupt the market, and bearish sentiment still dominates. There are also differences in the market's expectations for loose monetary policies. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and at the same time, pay attention to the trading opportunities of long - term term spreads brought about by the steepening of the yield curve [102]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data of Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of Treasury bond futures all declined this week. The TL2512 (30 - year) contract fell 0.53%, the T2512 (10 - year) contract fell 0.14%, the TF2512 (5 - year) contract fell 0.13%, and the TS2512 (2 - year) contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased. The open interests of the TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while that of the TS main contract decreased [11][15][21][29]. - **Price Changes of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of the top two cheapest - to - deliver (CTD) bonds for each contract term also changed. For example, the price of 210005.IB (18y) for the 30 - year contract decreased by 1.18 [12]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic Policy News**: On September 19, the central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation in the open market. On September 22, the loan prime rate (LPR) remained unchanged. On September 24, the central bank planned to conduct a 6000 - billion - yuan medium - term lending facility (MLF) operation, with a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan this month. Also on September 24, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued 13 measures to support service exports. On September 25, the scale of China's public funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan for the first time [32][33]. - **Overseas News**: On September 25, the US announced that the annualized final value of real GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.8% quarter - on - quarter. The US President Trump announced that starting from October 1, the US will impose a new round of high - tariff policies on multiple categories of imported products [33][34]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bond yields widened slightly. The spread between the TF and TS main contracts widened slightly, and the spread between the T and TF main contracts narrowed slightly. The inter - term spread of the 10 - year contract narrowed, while that of the 30 - year contract widened. The inter - term spread of the 5 - year contract narrowed, and that of the 2 - year contract widened [42][48][52][59]. - **Changes in Main Contract Positions**: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T Treasury bond futures main contract increased significantly [66]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Bond Yields**: Overnight and 2 - week Shibor rates decreased, while 1 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.53%. The yields of Treasury bond cash bonds weakened across the board, with the yields of 1 - 7 - year maturities rising by 1.8 - 4bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 0.9bp and 0.4bp to 1.80% and 2.22% respectively [70]. - **Sino - US Treasury Bond Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year Sino - US Treasury bond yields widened slightly, and the spread between 30 - year Sino - US Treasury bond yields narrowed slightly [74]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 24674 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 6000 billion yuan in MLF injections in the open market. With 18268 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 3000 billion yuan in MLF maturing, the net injection was 9406 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.53% [79]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 14184.42 billion yuan, and the total repayment amount was 16612.56 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of - 2428.14 billion yuan [83]. - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1152, with a cumulative depreciation of 21 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB strengthened [86]. - **US Treasury Bond Yields and Volatility Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds fluctuated upwards, and the VIX index increased [92]. - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds increased, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [98]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamental Situation**: In August, the growth rates of industrial added value, social retail sales, and exports declined compared with previous values. The scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate increased seasonally. In terms of financial data, the growth rate of social financing slowed down slightly in August, and the support of government bonds for social financing weakened. Although new loans turned positive, the credit growth rate continued to weaken, and overall demand remained weak. Since July, the economic recovery has continued to slow down [101]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US economic growth momentum is stronger than expected. The annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%. The labor market remains resilient, and inflation is still sticky. Market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed this year have cooled [101]. - **Market Outlook and Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. For unilateral operations, it is recommended to wait and see. At the same time, pay attention to the trading opportunities of long - term term spreads brought about by the steepening of the yield curve [102].