Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's policies may lead to a stronger US dollar, impacting global asset pricing, with a notable reaction seen in precious metals [4][12][17] - The report highlights three main channels through which exchange rates affect equity markets: corporate cost and profit elasticity, capital flow and asset pricing, and macroeconomic expectations and risk appetite [20][21][22] - The report suggests that during the current phase of the global dollar cycle, Chinese equity assets are in a favorable revaluation window due to the transition to a mild appreciation of the RMB and foreign capital inflows [4][19][60] Group 2 - The analysis indicates a significant negative correlation between the US dollar and the S&P 500 index, where a weaker dollar often corresponds with a rising stock market [25][27][33] - The report discusses the unique "devaluation—foreign capital inflow—transaction expansion—valuation increase" model in Japan, where yen depreciation enhances export competitiveness and EPS for Japanese companies [39][42] - In the Eurozone, the report notes a weak coupling between the euro and European stock markets, with euro depreciation benefiting export-oriented sectors but being diluted by internal economic disparities [47][53] Group 3 - The report identifies specific industries that benefit from RMB appreciation, including aviation, paper manufacturing, basic chemicals, semiconductors, and banks, due to reduced import costs and improved financial conditions [21][22][60] - The analysis of Brazil's IBOVESPA index shows a high correlation with the Brazilian real, indicating that currency fluctuations significantly impact asset pricing in emerging markets [54][56][58] - The report emphasizes the importance of incorporating exchange rate logic into asset allocation strategies, particularly in the context of RMB appreciation and its effects on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [59][63]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it discusses various performance metrics and market conditions that may influence investment decisions [96]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a raw material stocking phase, with steel mills increasing iron ore imports while steel inventories remain low, indicating a cautious approach to production amid weak price differentials and expectations of low post-holiday activity [1][11]. - Raw material prices have remained stable, with external prices driven higher by export policies while domestic prices face downward pressure, leading to a current loss of 37.9 yuan per ton for steel mills [1][11]. - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, reflecting the impact of rising raw material costs on financial performance [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index has decreased by 2.0% this week, underperforming the broader market by 1.6%, although the performance of general steel stocks has remained relatively stable [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - Steel mills are in a raw material stocking phase, with increasing iron ore imports and low steel inventories [1][11]. - The domestic steel price differential has decreased by 2.9 yuan, indicating financial strain on steel mills [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index has shown a decline, reflecting broader market trends [1][11]. 2. Sub-Industry Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3355 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan from last week [2][12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils has decreased, with a total of 278.33 million tons, down 2.82 million tons week-on-week [2][12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade-out prices for first-grade coke at 1470 yuan per ton [3][13]. - The average daily production of iron concentrate has increased slightly to 469,500 tons, with iron ore prices showing mixed trends [4][14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Iron ore inventory at ports continues to rise, indicating a supply-side pressure on prices [4][14]. - The report highlights the need to monitor the recovery speed of coal mines and its impact on coke prices post-holiday [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it implies a cautious outlook based on current market conditions and inventory levels [96]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a raw material stocking phase, with steel mills increasing iron ore imports while steel inventories remain low, indicating a potential weak willingness to stockpile due to low price differentials and weak expectations for post-holiday production [1][11]. - Raw material prices have remained stable, with domestic steel price differentials decreasing by 2.9 CNY, leading to a loss of 37.9 CNY per ton for steel companies, and a slight decline in profitability to 39.4% [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index decreased by 2.0%, underperforming the broader market by 1.6%, while the performance of general steel stocks remained relatively stable [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - Steel mills are in a raw material stocking phase, with iron ore imports increasing and steel inventories low, indicating a cautious approach to stocking [1][11]. - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, reflecting the impact of rising raw material prices on financial performance [1][11]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3355 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton from last week [12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.82 million tons week-on-week, and 10.30 million tons month-on-month [12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade-out prices for first-grade coke at 1470 CNY/ton and second-grade coke at 1570 CNY/ton [13]. - The average daily production of iron concentrate from 186 mining companies is 469,500 tons, with a slight increase in inventory [14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Iron ore prices have shown mixed trends, with the 66% iron concentrate price in Tangshan at 978 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.72% increase [14]. - The report indicates a continued increase in iron ore inventory at ports, suggesting a potential for price fluctuations in the coming weeks [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw materials are strong while the steel products are weak, leading to the compression of steel - making profits [3] - The "Three Red Lines" constraint has been alleviated, and the real - estate market expectation has improved. The macro - environment is generally warm [5] - The black industry chain: Steel mills are replenishing stocks for winter storage, and there are still low - level buying orders for steel - making raw materials. The supply - demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost provides support, and the price fluctuates widely. Currently, steel production and inventory are being reduced, creating conditions for subsequent positive feedback [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Data - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: The report provides supply, demand, inventory data, as well as spot and futures prices and spreads for various steel products such as iron water, scrap steel, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate on January 30, 2026, including week - on - week and year - on - year differences [4] 3.2 Rebar Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3250 (-20) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price was 3128 (-14) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was 122 (-6) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -49 (-3) yuan/ton. It shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage [13][17] - **Demand**: New - home sales remain at a low level, indicating low market confidence. Second - hand home sales remain at a high level, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains at a low level. It is the traditional off - season, and demand has declined [18][21] - **MS Weekly Data**: Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is healthy. It also shows the supply and inventory data of long - and short - process rebar [23][25] - **Production Profit**: Last week, the rebar spot profit was 129 (-32) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 130 (-12) yuan/ton. Due to the expected resumption of production by steel mills and inventory replenishment, the disk profit has shrunk [28] 3.3 Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3270 (-20) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract futures price was 3288 (-17) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was -18 (-3) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -23 (-4) yuan/ton. It shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage [32][36] - **Demand**: Demand is flat. It is the traditional off - season, and demand has declined. The profit window for exports has not opened, and export orders have decreased [37][38] - **MS Weekly Data**: Hot - rolled coil inventory is high, and production and inventory are being reduced. Production is maintained at a low level [43][44] - **Production Profit**: Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was -13 (-31) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 140 (-15) yuan/ton. Due to the expected resumption of production by steel mills and inventory replenishment, the disk profit has shrunk [46][49] 3.4 Variety Regional Differences - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold - rolled coil, hot - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate, including the price differences between different regions such as Shanghai - Tianjin, Tianjin - Guangzhou, and Shanghai - Guangzhou [55] 3.5 Cold - Rolled and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - It provides the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate from 2022 to 2026 [63][64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a slight decline in daily molten iron production, with the average dropping to 227.9 thousand tons, while steel production has seen a minor increase [13]. - Total steel inventory has expanded, with a week-on-week increase of 1.7%, indicating a growing supply in the market [23]. - Apparent consumption of steel has weakened slightly, with rebar demand decreasing by 13.4% week-on-week [39]. - Iron ore prices are trending downwards, influenced by increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, alongside rising port inventories [48]. - The current steel price index has decreased by 0.2% week-on-week, reflecting a general weakening in the market [72]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 0.2 thousand tons to 227.9 thousand tons, with a slight recovery in steel production [13]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is at 85.5%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week but up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [17]. 2. Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products has increased by 1.7% week-on-week, with social inventory rising to 890.7 thousand tons [25]. - Rebar social inventory has increased by 7.7% week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil inventory has decreased by 1.0% [25]. 3. Demand - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has decreased by 1.0% week-on-week, with rebar consumption down by 4.9% [49]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel has dropped to 67 thousand tons, a decline of 13.4% [41]. 4. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have weakened, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $103.2 per ton, down 1.4% week-on-week [58]. - The total port inventory of iron ore has increased by 1.5% week-on-week, indicating a supply surplus [58]. 5. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index has decreased to 121.6, reflecting a 0.2% decline week-on-week [72]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are negative, indicating cost pressures in the industry [74].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2026 01 31 年 月 日 固定收益点评 固收+继续扩张，增配科技化工——25Q4 基金转债持仓分析 2025Q4 公募基金持有转债规模占转债总市值的 57.74%，环比下降 4.08pcts，仓位小幅下降 0.05pcts。截止 2025Q4，转债市场存量余额 5338.90 亿元，环比 25Q3 增加 4.30%。权益势强背景下，固收+配置需 求仍在，转债存量规模略有增加，但机构持有转债比重略有下降。2025Q4 公募基金持有转债市值 3082.51 亿元，占转债总市值的 57.74%，较三季 度减少 4.08pcts；公募基金持有转债仓位为 0.76%，环比下降 0.05pcts。 二级债基、一级债基加仓转债。从结构上看，持有转债较多的基金类型为 债券型基金中的二级债基（ 36.41%）、可转债基金 36.29%）和债券型基 金中的一级债基 21.90%）、偏债混合型基金（ 3.30%）、灵活配置型基金 2.10%）。受基金产品定位与市场策略分化影响，环比 25Q3，二级债基 转债市值增加 39.63 亿元 3.72%，表示转债持有比重增加 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) held its 13th member conference, summarizing the steel industry's performance in 2025 and outlining the development direction for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for strategic clarity and confidence in development amidst a challenging market environment [1] Group 1: Industry Performance and Characteristics - In 2025, the steel industry is expected to maintain stable operations, with economic benefits increasing and resilience strengthening, characterized by a continued supply-demand imbalance, high steel exports, declining imports, lower steel prices with minor fluctuations, increased total profits, and improved environmental indicators [1] - The 15th Five-Year Plan period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization and high-quality development in the steel industry, with global economic resilience and cautious external demand, while domestic economic stability presents new opportunities amidst differentiated downstream demand [2] Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations - The steel industry faces significant challenges, including a persistent supply-demand imbalance, low industry concentration, declining profitability, branding shortcomings, and high trade barriers affecting exports [2] - Recommendations for the steel industry include deepening supply-demand collaboration, fostering innovation, enhancing standards, promoting green and intelligent transformation, strengthening safety measures, improving supply chain efficiency, and solidifying policy support for high-quality development [2] Group 3: Trade and Export Analysis - Despite achieving record-high steel exports in 2025, the industry must recognize the challenges of increasing export volume while facing declining prices, making exports a critical channel for absorbing production under the supply-demand imbalance [3] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the importance of compliant, high-quality, and mutually beneficial development in the steel trade, pledging to support steel enterprises in navigating trade risks and promoting healthy industry growth through precise policies [3] Group 4: Organizational Developments - The conference also included the election of new vice presidents and the approval of new vice president units, alongside discussions on membership expansion, the establishment of a price supervision system, and initiatives aimed at quality improvement in the steel industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a slowdown in contraction, with the PMI for January 2026 at 49.9%, indicating a slight recovery but still below the critical 50% threshold [1][3]. Demand and Supply - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, including low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, which restricts construction activities [3][4]. - Some infrastructure projects are nearing completion, contributing to a slight increase in steel demand, while export orders are under pressure due to policy changes and weak overseas demand [4][14]. - The new orders index rose to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion after five months, although overall demand remains subdued [4][14]. Production and Inventory - Steel production is stabilizing, with the production index rising to 48.4%, ending a two-month decline, and average daily crude steel production increasing by 21.6% compared to the previous month [8][12]. - Finished product inventory is accumulating, with the inventory index at 52.2%, indicating a return to expansion after three months [8][12]. Price Trends - Steel prices showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the Shanghai rebar price index peaking at 3,234 CNY/ton before declining to 3,196 CNY/ton by the end of January [10][12]. - Raw material procurement activities have increased, with the procurement index at 57.9%, marking a significant rise and indicating stronger purchasing by steel mills [12][14]. Future Outlook - In February 2026, steel demand is expected to remain weak due to the seasonal effects of the Spring Festival, with significant reductions in construction activities and a slow recovery in the real estate sector [14][15]. - Steel production is likely to decline again as mills may reduce output in response to lower demand and ongoing environmental regulations [15].

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has experienced a decline of 2.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as special steel down by 2.31% and iron ore down by 4.67% [10][12] - Supply metrics indicate that as of January 30, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sampled steel companies is 85.5%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [27] - Demand for the five major steel products has decreased, with a total consumption of 801.7 million tons, down by 7.78 million tons week-on-week [37] - Social inventory of the five major steel products has increased to 890.7 million tons, up by 22.27 million tons week-on-week, while factory inventory has decreased to 387.8 million tons [45] - The average price index for common steel is 3427.6 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 6.87 yuan/ton [51] - The report suggests that the recent safety incident at Baosteel may lead to temporary production cuts, providing cost and supply support for the industry [3] Supply Summary - As of January 30, the daily average pig iron production is 2.2798 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.12 million tons [27] - The capacity utilization for electric furnaces is reported at 55.7%, down by 2.23 percentage points week-on-week [27] - The total production of the five major steel products reached 722.4 million tons, an increase of 5.17 million tons week-on-week [27] Demand Summary - The consumption of the five major steel products has decreased to 801.7 million tons, a decline of 0.96% week-on-week [37] - The transaction volume for construction steel among mainstream traders is reported at 67,000 tons, down by 13.37% week-on-week [37] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products is at 890.7 million tons, up by 2.56% week-on-week [45] - Factory inventory has decreased to 387.8 million tons, down by 0.22% week-on-week [45] Price & Profit Summary - The common steel price index is at 3427.6 yuan/ton, down by 0.20% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is reported at 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.39% week-on-week [59] - The profit for construction steel produced in electric furnaces is at -80 yuan/ton, down by 26.98% week-on-week [59] Raw Material Prices Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is at 793 yuan/ton, down by 12.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [76] - The price for primary metallurgical coke is reported at 1770 yuan/ton, an increase of 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [76]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that raw material inventory replenishment is nearly complete, with a focus on changes in real estate policies. It notes that steel production and apparent consumption are stabilizing, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in demand [8][32]. - The report anticipates that steel mill profits may continue to recover due to improved margins from raw material cost reductions and potential easing of real estate regulations [8][32]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of January 30, 2026, steel prices have decreased, with rebar priced at 3,240 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY from the previous week. Hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices also saw declines [15][16]. - The total production of major steel products reached 8.23 million tons, with an increase in inventory levels [8][32]. Profitability Analysis - The report estimates weekly gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel to have changed by -17 CNY/ton, +3 CNY/ton, and -19 CNY/ton respectively, indicating fluctuations in profitability [8][32]. Production and Inventory - The total inventory of major steel products rose by 222,100 tons to 8.89 million tons, with a slight decrease in steel mill inventory [8][32]. - Apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.764 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 91,200 tons week-on-week [8][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their market position: 1. Leading companies in the general steel sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel 2. Specialty steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Fangda Special Steel 3. Pipe manufacturers: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Changbao Co. 4. Raw material companies with clear growth: Dazhong Mining (iron ore + lithium) and Fangda Carbon [8][32].