本文源自：金融界AI电报 原油期货收复前一交易日的部分跌幅，市场预期印度将在与美国达成的贸易协议下削减对俄罗斯原油的 采购。Sparta Commodities的Neil Crosby表示："看起来印度将相对迅速地拒绝购买俄罗斯原油，或者至 少是其中的大部分。"他指出，目前仍有约每日100万桶俄罗斯原油流向印度，若印度需要替代这部分供 应，将对油价形成支撑，这一点已体现在近期迪拜原油现货市场的走强上。"接下来的问题在于，这些 俄罗斯原油将流向何处？"他补充称，市场可能会充斥着关于俄罗斯原油被迫停产的说法。 ...

美国政府准备发放允许企业在委内瑞拉开采石油的通用许可证，特朗普政府此举将旨在放松制裁并重振 委内瑞拉长期低迷的能源产业。 知情人士表示，美国财政部最快可能在本周发布这项新许可证。 责任编辑：李桐 美国政府准备发放允许企业在委内瑞拉开采石油的通用许可证，特朗普政府此举将旨在放松制裁并重振 委内瑞拉长期低迷的能源产业。 知情人士表示，美国财政部最快可能在本周发布这项新许可证。 委内瑞拉苏利亚州马拉 开波湖南部的石油钻井平台 委内瑞拉苏利亚州马拉 开波湖南部的石油钻井平台 此举是吸引与美国有关联的企业参与委内瑞拉石油业的关键一步。委内瑞拉拥有全球规模最大的石油储 量之一，美国在抓捕马杜罗之后正寻求深度介入该国能源行业。 美国上周发放了另一项允许企业买卖委内瑞拉石油的通用许可证。该许可证涵盖一系列下游业务，包括 将原油装船、出口、运输以及炼化，但前提是相关操作必须由美国实体执行。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李桐 此举是吸引与美国有关联的企业参与委内瑞拉石油业的关键一步。委内瑞拉拥有全球规模最大的石油储 量之一，美国在抓捕马杜罗之后正寻求深度介入该国能源行 ...

2026年1月下旬，国际能源市场表面风平浪静，电子屏上的K线甚至没有太大波动，但真正让人后背发 凉的，是报价栏里那个突然跳出来的数字——45美元。 几天前，委内瑞拉原油的价格还停留在31美元，没有战乱、没有罢工、没有供给中断，却在一夜之间暴 涨了45%，这不是市场行为，而是人为按下了价格按钮。 在能源贸易一线干了多年的人，一眼就能看出问题，那天清晨，国内能源系统的交易员们几乎是同时看 到了这个报价。 确认不是系统错误后，电话迅速打到上级，得到的回复也异常简单，没有讨论、没有争辩，只有两个 字："停掉。" 这两个字，意味着一整条采购链条被当场掐断，也意味着一场关于定价权的硬碰硬正式开始，要理解这 次涨价的来龙去脉，时间必须往前推几天。 就在1月，美国财政部突然宣布，解除对部分涉及委内瑞拉石油交易活动的限制，消息一出，外界普遍 解读为"美国松口了""制裁要缓和了"。 委内瑞拉方面也迅速配合，代总统罗德里格斯在1月29日签署《石油法改革法案》，高调宣布引入私人 资本、欢迎外资、推进市场化改革，姿态放得极低。 更狠的，还不在价格上，而是在规则上——他们明确要求：交易必须现金结算，而且资金流向必须经过 美国监管账户。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the trade dispute between the US and India, with India's Modi government facing pressure from domestic farmers, leading to a refusal to open agricultural markets to the US, which escalated into a tariff war [1] - Recent developments indicate that Trump has reduced the "reciprocal" tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, suggesting progress in US-India tariff negotiations, although it implies Modi's significant concessions [3] - Modi's agreement to purchase over $500 billion worth of US products, including energy and defense, while committing to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers to zero, highlights the extent of India's concessions to the US [3] Group 2 - Modi's shift in policy has angered Russia, as India is expected to reduce oil imports from Russia in favor of Venezuelan oil, which could disrupt diplomatic and security cooperation between India and Russia [5] - The signing of the US-India trade agreement may negatively impact India's relations with the EU, particularly in defense, as it could lead to increased US weaponry in India, undermining EU interests [6] - The potential backlash from domestic farmers against the opening of Indian markets to US agricultural products could lead to significant political repercussions for Modi, including protests and challenges from opposition parties [8]

在这种背景下，印度作为第一个对委内瑞拉新政府作出回应的重要国家，迅速转向与新政权展开合作， 放弃了与伊朗长期的石油供应关系，转而与美国控制的委内瑞拉政权接触。这一转变表面看似市场的选 择，但背后却是印度在外交压力下的妥协。此前，美国通过对印度购买俄罗斯和伊朗原油加征重税，迫 使印度国内油价飙升，经济压力和舆论压力让印度不得不选择美国提供的替代选项。这一举动表面上是 为了换取更低的进口关税和所谓的交易安全，但实质上是美国通过这一系列的外交策略，将印度拉入了 自己构建的全球能源供应链中，印度的合作成为了美国能源战略布局的第一步。更为关键的是，美国开 始朝着中国发出邀请，提出要为中国提供稳定的供应和融资渠道。可是，美国的前提条件是，中国必须 放弃与委内瑞拉政府的直接合作，转而加入由美国主导的全球能源体系。这无疑是要求中国承认这场政 权更替的合法性。 面对美国的频频示好，中国展现出异常谨慎的态度。中国外交部多次重申反对单方面干预拉美政局的立 场，坚定表示将继续维持与委内瑞拉之间的战略合作。对于美国提出的通过中间商进行石油交易的建 议，中国明确拒绝，并且没有对现有的协议进行任何修改。从实际需求来看，委内瑞拉的重油对中国 ...

自2026年2月4日0时起 升油单价调整幅度为 每升上调约0.16元-0.19元 长春地区 成品油零售价格调整如下 ↓↓↓ 92#车用乙醇汽油调前6.74元/升，调后6.90元/升，每升上调0.16元； 95#车用乙醇汽油调前7.27元/升，调后7.44元/升，每升上调0.17元； CN98#汽油调前7.92元/升，调后8.11元/升，每升上调0.19元； +5#车用柴油调前6.17元/升，调后6.33元/升，每升上调0.16元； 0#车用柴油调前6.33元/升，调后6.50元/升，每升下上调0.17元； -10#车用柴油调前6.68元/升，调后6.85元/升，每升上调0.17元； -20#车用柴油调前7.02元/升，调后7.21元/升，每升上调0.19元； -35#车用柴油调前7.22元/升，调后7.41元/升，每升上调0.19元。 吨油价格如下： 92#车用乙醇汽油调前8904元/吨，调后9121元/吨； 95#车用乙醇汽油调前9408元/吨，调后9638元/吨； 98#汽油调前10248元/吨，调后10498元/吨； +5#车用柴油调前7267元/吨，调后7458元/吨； 0#车用柴油调前7415元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated with three stars (★★★), indicating a clearer long/short trend and currently a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk premium for crude oil has weakened, and prices are under pressure. Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil follow the crude oil market, with the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern likely to continue. Asphalt has a limited decline and its near-month futures contracts are supported by cost factors [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The situation between the US and Iran has unexpectedly eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has weakened, causing the previous gains to be continuously reversed. The inventory pressure in the global crude oil market is significant in Q1. With the uncertainty of the US-Iran negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar, oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has declined following the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market. High-sulfur fuel oil has a tight spot market due to factors such as reduced Russian exports and increased alternative procurement in China. Geopolitical risks still provide some support. In the medium term, the high-sulfur market will face supply pressure if the geopolitical risks do not escalate. Low-sulfur fuel oil has continuous supply pressure due to the postponed return of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery in Nigeria. The demand support has weakened. The fuel oil market will mainly follow the fluctuations of crude oil, and the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern may continue [4] Asphalt - Asphalt has corrected following the crude oil-related varieties, but the decline is relatively limited. The supply pressure is limited in the short term, and the consumption performance has improved year-on-year. The domestic refineries' search for substitutes for Venezuelan crude oil supports the near-month asphalt futures contracts from the cost side, and the asphalt crack spread is strong [5]

美国总统特朗普2日表示，他当天与印度总理莫迪通话，双方达成一项贸易协议。特朗普称，印度将停 止购买俄罗斯石油，美国则将降低印度输美商品关税税率。莫迪同日确认美将下调对印关税，但未就印 度停购俄石油一事表态。 分析人士认为，美印基于现实利益达成该协议，但印度出于多重考量，很难完全停止购买俄石油。该协 议虽能缓和两国经贸分歧，但难以从根本上推动美印关系改善。 去年8月，美国以印度"以直接或间接方式进口俄罗斯石油"为由，对印度输美产品额外征收25%的关 税。特朗普2日称莫迪已同意印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，引发外界关注。 不过，印度方面并未公开证实这一说法。特朗普发文后，莫迪在社交媒体上说，美国同意把印度输美商 品关税税率降至18%，但并未提及印度石油进口政策的变化。 分析人士认为，作为世界第三大石油消费国和进口国，印度很难完全停止从俄罗斯进口石油。 降低关税，美印各有所求 特朗普当天在社交媒体发文称，莫迪同意印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，美国将把对印度商品加征的所 谓"对等关税"税率从25%降至18%，立即生效，印度同时降低对美关税和非关税壁垒。 特朗普还说，莫迪同意显著增加美国石油的采购量，并可能购买委内瑞拉石油。他说， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that India has not officially communicated any decision to stop purchasing Russian oil, despite claims made by US President Trump following a conversation with Indian Prime Minister Modi [2][4] - Trump stated that Modi agreed to significantly increase the procurement of US oil and may also purchase oil from Venezuela [4] - A bilateral trade agreement was reached, where the US will reduce the tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, effective immediately, while India will lower its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US products [6] Group 2 - The agreement includes commitments from India to purchase over $500 billion worth of US energy, technology, agriculture, and coal products, with Modi promising to enhance the level of "buying American" [6] - The US government had previously imposed a 25% "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods starting August 7, following Trump's executive order aimed at pressuring India to stop importing Russian oil [6] - Negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement between India and the US began in February of the previous year but were delayed due to differences in positions, particularly regarding oil procurement [6]

据此前报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间2日在社交媒体上发文称，他当天上午与印度总理莫迪通电话， 莫迪同意印度停止购买俄罗斯石油。特朗普还称，莫迪同意显著增加美国石油的采购量，并可能购买委 内瑞拉石油。 中新网2月3日电 据俄罗斯卫星通讯社3日报道，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫表示，俄罗斯尚未收到关 于印度拒绝购买俄石油的任何声明。 佩斯科夫还称，俄罗斯打算继续以各种可能的方式发展与印度的双边关系，并且俄方也正在这样做。 ...