热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2月26日，燃料油主力合约2605盘中站上3000点关口，涨超2%。地缘溢价明显，伊朗高硫出口受限，自 1月起美国制裁加码，2月的高硫燃料油发货量延续1月的弱势，亚洲地区高硫供应缺口有所放大；另外 俄乌冲突爆发已四年，自去年年底西方国家制裁加码，俄罗斯两家核心油品生产商（俄石油、卢克石 油）高硫燃油出口受限，制裁后首月出口环比下跌超17%，同时乌克兰持续袭击导致俄罗斯炼厂，导致 向亚洲出口数据雪上加霜。当前（2月26日）美伊进入第三轮间接谈判，资金在燃料油上博弈地缘风险 溢价，短期关注美伊局势最新进展对原油和燃料油市场产生的扰动。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 数据来看，中东2月高硫发货预计为300万吨，环比减少113万吨，同比下降50万吨，其中伊朗发货量降 幅较大，其2月发货量约为90万吨，环比减少20万吨，同比下降超40万吨；俄罗斯2月高硫发货量虽然环 比减少，但同比依然处于高位。 撰稿：李琪 从业资格：F3046227 交易咨询资格：Z0016145 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些 ...

2月25日，欧尔班称自1月27日起，没有一滴石油通过"友谊"管道输送到匈牙利。他发布视频声明称，这 一"前所未有"的中断背后是政治原因而非技术故障。他还说，乌克兰可能采取进一步行动，以破坏匈牙 利能源系统的运行。经"友谊"管道乌克兰段向欧洲输送的俄罗斯石油自1月27日起暂停。匈牙利和斯洛 伐克通过该管道南线接收俄石油，这两国指责乌拖延重启管道。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Oil tanker freight rates have risen significantly since the beginning of the year. The freight rate of TD3 tankers from the Middle East to the Far East has soared to $5 per barrel, and that of West Africa and Latin America routes has soared to over $8 per barrel. The sanctions on shadow tankers by the West have led to a continuous decline in the number of compliant tankers. After the compliance of Venezuelan oil, more compliant tankers are needed for transportation. After the freight rate increase, the arbitrage cost between the East and West regions has increased significantly. Asia - Pacific buyers have reduced the procurement of physical goods from long - distance regions such as West Africa, Latin America, and North America, and the premiums of relevant oil types have weakened. The Middle East is more favored by buyers due to its proximity. Freight has become an important factor affecting the physical market [2] - Oil prices are highly uncertain in the short term due to geopolitical events and are recommended for short - term bearish allocation in the medium term [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 21 cents to $65.42 per barrel, a decrease of 0.32%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for April delivery rose 8 cents to $70.85 per barrel, an increase of 0.11%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed down 0.63% at 487 yuan per barrel [1] - On February 25, Slovak Prime Minister Fico said that Ukrainian President Zelensky's repeated delays in resuming oil delivery through the "Friendship" pipeline were "hostile acts". Ukraine has changed the date of resuming oil delivery multiple times. The latest news is that it will not resume in February and may resume around March 3. Fico also said that if Ukraine "has no intention of providing the oil that Slovakia has purchased", Slovakia will take further countermeasures [1] - On February 26, the Trump administration is relaxing some restrictions on the transportation of fuel to Cuba, allowing private enterprises to resell Venezuelan oil to Cuba. The new guidelines issued by the US Treasury Department on Wednesday emphasized that this measure applies to commercial and humanitarian transactions involving the small private sector in Cuba for "supporting the Cuban people". Previously, the Cuban government did not allow an increasing number of local small private enterprises to import fuel. At the time of this update, Cuban small business owners are trying to import diesel from the US with the approval of the Trump administration [1] - This month, the amount of oil exported from Saudi Arabian ports is expected to reach the highest level in nearly three years. Oil tanker tracking data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in the first 24 days of February jumped to 7.3 million barrels per day, the highest level since April 2023. If this momentum continues for the rest of the month, it means that the daily average export volume will increase by more than 400,000 barrels compared with January. Last June, when Israel and the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities and other locations, Saudi Arabia briefly increased its oil production. As Trump considers launching another attack, the market is closely watching any "abnormal movements" of the Middle East oil - producing giant [1] - On February 25, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) updated the "Specially Designated Nationals List" and imposed relevant sanctions on multiple individuals, entities, and multiple vessels related to Iran. The targets of this round of sanctions include 4 Iranian individuals, all related to Iranian aviation industry enterprises; many shipping and trading companies located in Iran, Turkey, the UAE, Panama, the Marshall Islands, Liberia, etc. are on the list, involving the Iranian oil and liquefied gas transportation network; at least 13 oil tankers and liquefied gas carriers are included in the sanctions scope, and the relevant vessels fly the flags of Panama, Palau, Barbados, Vanuatu, Comoros, and Iran. The US Treasury Department said that the above individuals and entities will face asset freezing and restrictions on transactions with the US financial system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance with nearly 3000 stocks in decline, but there are signs of potential recovery post-holiday due to favorable external and internal conditions [1] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.28%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.39% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 1.65 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as insurance, real estate, oil, liquor, and brokerage are showing declines, while power, semiconductors, and steel sectors are gaining traction [1] - Concepts like CPO, PCB, and 3D printing are actively participating in the market [1] Future Outlook - Dongguan Securities indicates that the A-share market has released some risks ahead of the holiday and is expected to enter a high-probability window for gains post-holiday [1] - The reduction in uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies is supporting risk appetite [1] - A series of macro policies and industrial catalysts are expected to guide market structure [1] - The market is anticipated to see a new upward trend after the holiday, with returning capital from pre-holiday cashing out expected to provide ongoing momentum for future increases [1] - Recommended sectors for focus include dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and power equipment [1]

2月26日，隔夜美股三大指数收涨，英伟达财报亮眼，港股三大指数追随亚太股市高开后震荡下挫，截 止午盘，恒生指数跌0.39%报26661.2点，恒生科技指数跌1.65%报5173.65点，国企指数跌1.29%报 8918.15点，红筹指数跌0.6%报4439.45点。 大型科技股中，阿里巴巴跌2.09%，腾讯控股跌0.77%，京东集团跌1.97%，小米集团跌0.17%，网易跌 1.63%，美团跌1.51%，快手跌2.41%，哔哩哔哩跌2.27%；芯片股走弱，华虹半导体跌超5%，上海复旦 跌近3%。大金融股(保险、银行、券商)等权重低迷拖累大市下行，非洲最大锂矿出口国宣布"断供"，锂 电池股走势分化，赣锋锂业、天齐锂业走强，宁德时代、中创新航下挫。另外，机构看好国内内燃机及 相关产业链出海，电力设备股拉升明显，军工股、光通讯概念股部分活跃。 盘面表现：板块涨跌互现 科网股多数走低 科网股整体表现不佳，跌多涨少。快手、阿里巴巴、百度集团等知名科网股纷纷走低，对市场人气形成 一定压制。在科技行业竞争日益激烈的当下，这些企业面临着来自国内外同行的多重挑战，业绩增长压 力凸显，导致股价表现疲软。 锂电池板块先扬后抑 万咖 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly data shows that the refinery operating rate has declined, and crude oil inventories have increased significantly. The weekly inventory data is bearish [2][4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil Inventory - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 15.989 million barrels in the week ending February 20, with large weekly inventory fluctuations recently. Since the beginning of the year, U.S. crude oil has mainly seen seasonal inventory accumulation [4] - U.S. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 881,000 barrels [4] - U.S. strategic petroleum inventories remained unchanged [4] Refinery Operations - The U.S. refinery operating rate dropped from 91% to 88.6%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 416,000 barrels per day, but it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period [4] Product Inventory - Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.011 million barrels, and diesel inventories increased by 252,000 barrels. Jet fuel inventories decreased by 1.44 million barrels, and fuel oil inventories decreased by 107,000 barrels [4] Product Demand - U.S. refined product apparent demand decreased from 21.648 million barrels per day to 21.455 million barrels per day. Gasoline apparent demand decreased from 8.749 million barrels per day to 8.733 million barrels per day, and diesel apparent demand decreased significantly from 4.753 million barrels per day to 3.895 million barrels per day [4] Trade - U.S. crude oil imports increased from 6.524 million barrels per day to 6.659 million barrels per day, and crude oil exports decreased from 4.59 million barrels per day to 4.313 million barrels per day [4] Overall Inventory - The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 11.179 million barrels [4]

原油成品油早报 ·美国国务卿鲁比奥：伊朗长期以来一直对美国构成非常严重的威胁。伊朗目前没有进行铀浓缩，但他们正试图达到最 终能够进行铀浓缩的状态。 ·美特使要求伊朗核协议永久有效 金十数据2月26日讯，一名美国官员及另外两名消息人士称，美国特使威特科夫周二在一场私人聚会上表示，特朗普政 府要求伊朗同意，任何未来的核协议都将无限期生效。根据2015年达成、后被特朗普废除的协议，对伊朗核项目的大部 分限制将在签署后8年至25年间逐步到期。排除此类"日落条款"将加强该协议，并使特朗普更容易在国内将其推销为对 奥巴马政策的升级加以推销。威特科夫表示："我们与伊朗人谈判的前提是不存在日落条款。无论是否达成协议，我们 的前提是：你们必须在余生中都遵守规矩。"威特科夫还表示，目前美伊谈判聚焦于核问题，但如果达成协议，特朗普 政府希望就伊朗的导弹计划及其对代理武装组织的支持展开后续谈判。届时美国希望该地区其他国家也参与谈判。威特 科夫称，在当前核谈判中，两个关键问题是伊朗铀浓缩能力以及其现有浓缩铀库存的处理。 ·伊朗局势紧张之际，沙特石油出口飙升至三年高点 金十数据2月25日讯，本月，沙特阿拉伯从其港口出口的石油量有望达到近 ...

其次，美国冬季天气异常导致美国原油产出短期受到影响。1月，覆盖美国东部三分之二地区的冬季风暴对能源系统造成严重冲击，严寒天气扰乱了墨西哥 湾沿岸多家炼油厂的运营，并影响了部分原油产量。数据显示，今年以来，美国原油产量出现回落，2月13日当周降至1373.5万桶/日，而去年12月5日当周 一度创下1385.3万桶/日的历史最高纪录。美国能源服务公司贝克休斯公布的数据显示，今年以来，美国原油钻井数量下降，2月20日当周降至409口，较去 年同期减少16.2%。 图为VLCC一年期日租金（单位：美元） 1月以来，原油价格震荡反弹，国内春节假期期间加速上涨，WTI原油期货4月合约一度上涨至67美元/桶一线，布伦特原油期货5月合约最高上涨至72美元/桶 附近。 原油价格反弹的主要原因是地缘政治危机引发的原油运输担忧、美国冬季恶劣天气影响炼厂开工和油轮运费上涨带来的成本传导。然而，2026年全球原油市 场处于供应过剩格局决定了油价反弹的高度有限。产油国对全球原油市场份额的争夺意味着供应很难下降，地缘政治危机引发的涨势难以持续。 三大因素推动原油反弹 首先，地缘政治危机引发供应担忧。年初至今，原油价格持续反弹的主要驱动力为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Oil ETF (561360), which opened down by 0.58% at 1.550 yuan on February 26 [1] - Major holdings in the Oil ETF include China National Petroleum Corporation, which opened down by 0.64%, China National Offshore Oil Corporation down by 0.77%, and Sinopec down by 0.31% [1] - The Oil ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index return rate, managed by Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 55.51% since its establishment on October 23, 2023, and a return of 13.58% over the past month [1] Group 2 - Other notable stock performances include Jereh Oilfield Services down by 0.57%, China Merchants Energy down by 0.75%, and Guanghui Energy down by 0.69%, while Zhongyuan Shipping increased by 0.35% [1] - Hengli Petrochemical decreased by 0.08%, Rongsheng Petrochemical by 0.40%, and Intercontinental Oil and Gas remained unchanged [1]

Group 1 - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.24% [1] - Lithium mining and chemical sectors led the gains, while MLCC, fiberglass, and oil & petrochemical sectors experienced declines [1] Group 2 - The US stock market is experiencing significant divergence, with non-US markets performing strongly due to high valuations in the US and a focus on growth attributes [2] - Commodity and industrial sectors are performing well, with cyclical industries like materials, industrials, and real estate showing continued upward trends [2] - The valuation of tech growth leaders is converging with traditional value stocks, as seen with Microsoft and ExxonMobil nearing similar valuations [2] Group 3 - The reduction of housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai may stabilize local housing prices [3] - Investment opportunities in the real estate sector are emerging, with potential shifts from policy-driven volatility to a beta market driven by fundamentals [3] - Three investment strategies are suggested: 1) Allocate to stable beta characteristics, 2) Focus on structurally growing real estate development stocks, 3) Consider undervalued private enterprises for potential revaluation [3]