市场全天震荡反弹，沪指再创年内新高 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3461.15 | 0.18% | 6.36 | | | 深证成指 | 10534.58 | 1.17% | 121.96 | | | 沪深 300 | 3968.07 | 0.62% | 24.38 | | | 创业板 | 2164.09 | 1.90% | 40.37 | | | 科创 50 | 984.95 | 0.24% | 2.31 | | | 北证 50 | 1442.17 | 0.21% | 3.02 | | 证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 4 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1 财富通每日策略 值得关注的是，数据显示，6 月 30 日，合计有 43 家 IPO 被沪深北三大交易所受理； 而在 6 月 26 日和 6 月 27 日，均有 18 ...

热点板块：展望 7 月 A 股，可能仍是事件驱动的主题性行情，但板块间将出现高低切换。6 月末创 新药和银行等热门板块出现震荡回调，但 TMT、先进制造等板块开始超跌反弹，虽然 7 月预计仍是事 件驱动的主题性行情，但板块高低切换却是大概率事件。1）促进消费扩大内需是 2025 年的重点任务， 虽然大消费方向年报和一季报表现相对平淡，但市场对后续政策对冲仍有期待，这将是 2025 年大消费 方向的重要看点。关注乳制品、IP 消费、休闲旅游、医美等基本面景气度较高的板块。2）机器人国产 化和走进老百姓生活依然是 2025 年比较确定的趋势，机器人产品将从人形机器人向四足机器人、功能 型机器人扩展。以此带来的传感器、控制器、灵巧手等板块的阶段性机会将会反复出现。7 月特斯拉将 公布财报，且市场预期特斯拉人形机器人版本有可能更新，或将成为机器人板块新催化剂。3）半导体 国产化仍是大势所趋，关注其中的半导体设备、晶圆制造、半导体材料、IC 设计等。4）军工板块 2025 年存在订单回升的预期，大部分军工子板块如地面装备、航空装备、军工电子等一季报已经出现触底迹 象。5）创新药经历了近 4 年的调整后逐步迎来收获期，自 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of youth organizations like the Youth Federation and Student Union in mobilizing young people to contribute to national development and embody the spirit of the new era [2][4] - The meeting highlighted the need for youth to integrate their personal efforts into the broader context of national progress, encouraging them to take initiative in various fields such as technology, safety, and education [2][3] - The call for youth to respond to the Party and people's expectations, fostering a strong sense of national identity and responsibility among young individuals [3][4] Group 2 - The Youth Federation is recognized as a significant organization under the Party's leadership, with plans to implement various actions aimed at enhancing youth engagement and loyalty to the Party [4] - The Student Union is urged to maintain a correct political direction and innovate in its operations to better serve the youth and align their growth with national goals [4][5] - Local initiatives, such as the 2025 Zhongguancun Graduation Season, are being organized to provide support for youth in areas like housing and employment, showcasing the commitment to addressing their needs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The central government has prioritized the development of the central region of China, which consists of six provinces, emphasizing its strategic importance in national economic growth and modernization efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development - Since the implementation of the strategy to promote the rise of the central region in 2004, the economies of the six provinces (Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan) have experienced sustained rapid growth, solidifying their roles as key contributors to national economic development [2][3]. - The GDP of the central six provinces is projected to grow from less than 15 trillion yuan in 2015 to approximately 28 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.5%, outpacing the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [6]. Group 2: Industrial Structure and Modernization - The central region is focusing on building a modern industrial system, with an emphasis on advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries, while also optimizing its industrial structure [3][8]. - The region has established several advanced manufacturing clusters, including rail transit equipment in Zhuzhou, engineering machinery in Changsha, and optoelectronic information in Wuhan, showcasing its competitive edge in various sectors [8][9]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The central region aims to enhance its R&D investment to reach the national average by 2025, targeting a ratio of R&D expenditure to GDP of approximately 2.5% [4]. - Cities like Hefei and Wuhan are leveraging their educational and research institutions to foster innovation, particularly in emerging industries such as quantum computing and laser technology [9]. Group 4: Urbanization and Population Dynamics - The urbanization rate in the central six provinces is increasing at a pace faster than the national average, with projections indicating that by 2024, the urbanization rate in Henan will be 59.2% and the other five provinces will exceed 60% [6][7]. - The demographic structure is favorable, with a lower proportion of the population aged 65 and above compared to the national average, indicating a robust labor supply and long-term consumption potential [7]. Group 5: Agricultural and Energy Security - The central region plays a crucial role in ensuring national food security, contributing 28.92% of the total grain production in China in 2024, with a total output of 204.318 million tons [10]. - Shanxi, as a major coal-producing province, is also pivotal in energy security, with a coal output of 1.269 billion tons in 2024, accounting for 26.7% of the national total [10]. Group 6: Policy Support and Future Directions - The implementation of policies aimed at promoting the rise of the central region is expected to provide strong support for future development, with a focus on high-quality growth and sustainable development [7][12]. - The central provinces are encouraged to enhance their advanced manufacturing capabilities, innovate in production processes, and support the transformation of traditional industries through new technologies and business models [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The 17th International Transportation Technology and Equipment Exhibition showcases cutting-edge technologies and innovations in the transportation sector, highlighting advancements in smart transportation, autonomous driving, and logistics efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: Innovations in Transportation - The exhibition features a unique SUV designed for rural road inspection, capable of assessing road conditions using a "visual system" that identifies surface defects and generates a 3D "health record" of the road [1]. - A L4 autonomous vehicle developed by Didi and GAC Aion is equipped with 33 sensors, including infrared cameras, enabling it to recognize pedestrians even in low light conditions. This model is set for delivery by the end of this year and aims for demonstration operations in select areas by 2026 [2]. - The exhibition also showcases a silver autonomous truck from Pony.ai, which has safely traveled 6 million kilometers and transported over 9.4 billion ton-kilometers of goods, significantly reducing logistics costs and improving efficiency [2]. Group 2: Broader Trends in Transportation - The event highlights various advanced technologies, including flying cars, intelligent delivery vehicles, and underwater drones, reflecting breakthroughs in autonomous driving, low-altitude economy, and energy integration [3]. - The International Transportation Exhibition, organized by the Ministry of Transport of China, has been held since 1992 and has increasingly contributed to the integration of transportation technology innovation and industry development [3].

7月3日，A股市场整体上涨。 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出48.18亿元，尾盘净流入4.1亿元，全天净流出24.75亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 人提供随圆 | 超大单净买入 | | 2025-7-3 | -24. 75 | -48. 18 | 4. 10 | 36. 21 | | 2025-7-2 | -331.90 | -120. 22 | -18.91 | -157.53 | | 2025-7-1 | -231. 12 | -105.84 | -1.95 | -90. 80 | | 2025-6-30 | -39.95 | -29.38 | 12. 66 | 17.18 | | 2025-6-27 | -154. 13 | -87.80 | -22.52 | -36. 69 | 2. 沪深300主力资金净流出超60亿元 沪深300今日主力资金净流出66.99亿元，创业板净流出12.37亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据( ...

欧盟委员会已选定94个交通项目，将获得近28亿欧元的欧盟拨款，这些项目将通过现代化改造泛欧交通 网络（TEN-T）中的铁路、内陆水道和海上航线，不仅有助于更好地连接欧洲各区域和城市，还将提升 欧盟内部市场的竞争力和抗冲击能力。 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250703 2025年07月03日 投资要点 分析师:孟之绪 执业编号:S0300524080 邮箱: mengzhixu(a)ykzq.com 今日关注 指数涨跌情况:今日 A 股主要指数多数收涨。截止收盘,沪指涨 0.18%,收报 3461.15点;深证成指涨 1.17%,收报 10534.58点;科创 50 涨 0.24%,收报 984.95 点;创业板指涨 1.90%,收报 2164.09 点。总体上,全天个股涨多跌 少,Wind 数据显示,全市场 3270 只个股上涨,1863 只个股下跌,282 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 13097亿元,较上个交易日缩量 672.34亿元。 行业涨跌情况:今日申万一级行业涨多跌少,电子、电力设备、医药生物、 通信、建筑材料、纺织服饰等行业领涨,煤炭、交通运输、钢铁、石油石化、 银行、房地产等行业领跌。 板块涨跌情况:今日涨幅居前概念板块为电路板、万得预增、消费电子代工、 射频及天线、苹果、AI 手机、TWS耳机、创新药、无线充电、服务器、仿制 药、锂电电解液、生物科技等权、光模块(CPO)、 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 07 月 03 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250703 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.18%，收报 3461.15 点；深证成指涨 1.17%，收报 10534.58 点；科创 50 涨 0.24%，收报 984.95 点；创业板指涨 1.90%，收报 2164.09 点。总体上，全天个股涨多跌 少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 3270 只个股上涨，1863 只个股下跌，282 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 13097 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 672.34 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，电子、电力设备、医药生物、 通信、建筑材料、纺织服饰等行业领涨，煤炭、交通运输、钢铁、石油石化、 银行、房地产等行业领跌。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为电路板、万得预增、消费电子代工、 射频及天线、苹果、AI 手机、TWS 耳机、创新药、无线充电、服务器、仿制 药、锂电电解液、生物 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In June, all major market indices' valuations were adjusted upwards. In terms of price - to - earnings ratio and price - to - book ratio, the historical percentile increases of CSI 300 and CSI All - Share were among the top, while the ChiNext Index remained at a historical low. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries rose, with the top 5 gainers being communication, national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and media; the top 5 losers were food and beverage, beauty care, household appliances, coal, and transportation [1]. - In June, 70 new funds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 62.728 billion yuan. The issuance of active equity funds was booming, while the issuance of passive equity funds decreased slightly. Only commodity - type funds declined, with a 1.66% drop, and the largest gain was in equity - biased funds, up 2.68% [2]. - From the perspective of fund style indices, the growth style outperformed the value style, and the large - cap style underperformed the small - cap style. Overall, the mid - cap growth style performed outstandingly, rising 5.83%, while the large - cap value style had the smallest increase, about 2.52% [2]. - In the ETF market, last month, there was a net inflow of 59.605 billion yuan. Bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of over 90 billion yuan, and stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 31.54 billion yuan [3]. - In June, the risk - parity model rose 1.59%, and the risk - budget model rose 2.34% [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Month's Market Review 1.1 Domestic Market Situation - In June, all major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose. The ChiNext Index rose by over 8%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 500 rose by over 4%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries rose. The top 5 gainers were communication, national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and media; the top 5 losers were food and beverage, beauty care, household appliances, coal, and transportation. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index rose 0.31%, and the total full - price indices of ChinaBond Treasury bonds, financial bonds, and credit bonds rose between 0.13% and 0.40%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 3.34%. In the commodity market, the Nanhua Commodity Index rose 4.03% [13]. 1.2 European, American, and Asia - Pacific Market Situation - In June, most European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets rose. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 rose 4.89%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.21%, and the Nasdaq rose 6.57%. In the European market, the French CAC 40 fell 1.11%, and the German DAX fell 0.37%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose 3.36%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 6.64% [21]. 1.3 Market Valuation Situation - In June, all major market indices' valuations were adjusted upwards. In terms of price - to - earnings ratio and price - to - book ratio, the historical percentile increases of CSI 300 and CSI All - Share were among the top, while the ChiNext Index remained at a historical low. Among industries, the top five industries with the highest historical percentiles of price - to - earnings ratio in the Shenwan primary index last month were real estate, banking, automotive, chemical, and electronics. The real estate industry's price - to - earnings ratio percentile reached 96.6%. The five industries with lower historical percentiles of price - to - earnings ratio were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non - bank finance, food and beverage, light manufacturing, and household appliances, all with percentiles less than 25% [24]. 2. Overall Situation of Public Offering Funds 2.1 Fund Issuance Situation - In June, 70 new funds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 62.728 billion yuan. Among them, 33 stock - type funds were issued with a scale of 11.646 billion yuan; 14 hybrid funds were issued with a scale of 6.317 billion yuan; 14 bond - type funds were issued with a scale of 35.293 billion yuan; 4 FOF funds were issued with a scale of 7.5 billion yuan; 3 REITs funds were issued with a scale of 1.3 billion yuan; and 2 QDII funds were issued with a scale of 0.67 billion yuan. A total of 17 active equity funds were issued with a scale of 6.738 billion yuan, and 36 index funds were issued with a scale of 28.472 billion yuan. The issuance of active equity funds increased significantly, while that of passive equity funds decreased slightly [32]. 2.2 Fund Market Return Situation - In June, only commodity - type funds declined, with a 1.66% drop, and the largest gain was in equity - biased funds, up 2.68%, with a positive return ratio of 97.63%. From the perspective of fund style indices, the growth style outperformed the value style, and the large - cap style underperformed the small - cap style. The mid - cap growth style performed outstandingly, rising 5.83%, while the large - cap value style had the smallest increase, about 2.52%. Generally, smaller - scale funds in the equity market performed better. The large - scale funds with a scale of 4 - 10 billion had the largest average increase of 2.80%, with a positive return ratio of 97.52%, while the super - large - scale funds over 10 billion had the smallest increase of 2.16%, with a positive return ratio of 88.46% [2][40][43]. 2.3 Active Equity Fund Position Situation - Using Lasso regression to measure the positions of active equity funds, the position on June 30, 2025, was 75.44%, a decrease of 3.76 percentage points from the previous month [47]. 3. ETF Fund Situation - In the ETF market, last month, there was a net inflow of 59.605 billion yuan. Bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of over 90 billion yuan, and stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 31.54 billion yuan, with funds flowing from broad - based indices such as CSI 300 to bond funds. In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market this period reached 265.76 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume reached 126.808 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate reached 8.59%. At the individual bond level, most broad - based index targets had net outflows except for the CSI A500 Index. Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300 ETF had a net outflow of 5.45 billion yuan, while Huatai - PineBridge CSI A500 ETF had a net inflow of 13.54 billion yuan. Among the most actively traded targets, Financial Technology ETF, Hong Kong Securities ETF, Communication Equipment ETF, ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao, and 5G ETF had the highest monthly gains, rising between 15.7% and 18.8%. Food and Beverage ETF, Consumption 30 ETF, Wine ETF, Leading Home Appliance ETF, and Southeast Asia Technology ETF had the highest monthly losses, falling between 1.6% and 4.4%. In terms of fund flow, the top funds with net inflows also included Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF, Bank ETF, A500ETF Harvest, and Hong Kong Non - Bank ETF; the top funds with net outflows also included CSI 300ETF E Fund, ChiNext ETF, Harvest CSI 300ETF, and CSI A500ETF Fullgoal [3][51][52]. 4. Model Operation Situation - Four types of large - asset allocation models were constructed using stocks, bonds, commodities, and QDII. In June, the risk - parity model rose 1.59%, and the risk - budget model rose 2.34%. Since 2015, the annualized return of the risk - parity model has been 4.64%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.31%; the annualized return of the risk - budget model has been 4.45%, with a maximum drawdown of 9.80%. Next month, the asset allocation weights of the models remain unchanged. For the risk - parity model, the ratio of stocks: bonds: commodities: QDII is 6%: 70%: 12%: 11%; for the risk - budget model, it is 13%: 52%: 9%: 25% [62][63][65].