Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly gold, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and market adjustments [1][2] - On December 29, gold prices initially dropped below $4500 per ounce due to profit-taking and easing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but later rebounded to around $4510 per ounce [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced a major margin adjustment on December 26, increasing the margin requirements for gold, silver, and lithium futures, aimed at tightening market liquidity and encouraging rational trading [1] Group 2 - Recent increases in precious metal prices are supported by four main factors: rising geopolitical uncertainties enhancing safe-haven demand, a weakening dollar reducing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, accelerated demand for metals due to AI and energy transition, and ongoing supply constraints in copper, silver, and platinum [2] - The demand structure for metals is changing, influenced by significant investments in the photovoltaic energy sector, necessitating a reevaluation of traditional risk assessment models [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - Copper: Strong overseas spot prices support price increases [2]. - Zinc: Showing a moderately strong oscillation [2]. - Lead: Weak demand restricts price increases [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2]. - Aluminum: Following the upward trend of copper [2]. - Alumina: Under the policy orientation of "internal competition" [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Bullish sentiment remains strong [2]. - Palladium: Oscillating upwards [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [2]. - Stainless steel: Fundamental factors limit its flexibility, and attention should be paid to policy risks in Indonesia [2]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,016.30, with a daily increase of 0.75%, and the night - session closing price was 1018.10, with a night - session increase of 0.17%. The trading volume of ETF SPDR Gold ETF increased by 3 to 1,071.13 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In 2026, the Two Sessions will be held on March 4 for the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and March 5 for the National People's Congress. China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. China's industrial enterprise profits in November 2026 decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. The central bank emphasized preventing the "overshoot" of the RMB exchange rate. Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine were "close to reaching an agreement" [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0 [6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 98,720, with a daily increase of 2.61%, and the night - session closing price was 101380, with a night - session increase of 2.69%. The LME 3M electronic copper board had a closing price of 12,133, with an increase of 0.65% [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners until the end of 2026. Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November 2025 increased by 3.05% month - on - month and 13.13% year - on - year. Chile initiated the preliminary mediation procedure for the labor - capital contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1 [9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23170, with an increase of 0.46%. The LME 3M electronic zinc board had a closing price of 3086.5, with a decrease of 0.32%. The Shanghai Zinc main contract's trading volume increased by 20495 to 145708, and the position increased by 4103 to 97425 [10]. - **News**: China's industrial enterprise profits in November 2026 decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, but the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% year - on - year from January to November. China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17555, with an increase of 1.39%. The LME 3M electronic lead board had a closing price of 1999.5, with an increase of 0.83%. The Shanghai Lead main contract's trading volume increased by 3669 to 58769, and the position decreased by 770 to 55558 [13]. - **News**: China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. China's industrial enterprise profits in November 2026 decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 338,550, with an increase of 0.79%, and the night - session closing price was 346,280, with an increase of 2.46%. The LME 3M electronic tin board had a closing price of 42,490, with a decrease of 0.81%. The Shanghai Tin main contract's trading volume increased by 70,845 to 369,071, and the position decreased by 968 to 52,276 [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including the time of the Two Sessions, fiscal policy, industrial enterprise profits, exchange - rate prevention, and the Russia - Ukraine situation [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22405, with an increase of 130 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2793, with an increase of 147 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 21390, with an increase of 45 compared to T - 1 [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: Trump plans to take over the US power grid regulatory power for AI data centers. NVIDIA is leading the data center to a 800V DC architecture [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 1 [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 705.30, with an increase of 2.67%. The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 515.65, with a decrease of 2.53%. The trading volume and position of Shanghai Platinum and NYMEX Platinum, as well as Shanghai Palladium and NYMEX Palladium, all had corresponding changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's ETF scale reached 6.03 trillion yuan as of December 27. The National Fiscal Work Conference was held from December 27 to 28. Cambodia and Thailand reached a consensus on the draft joint statement of the Cambodia - Thailand Border General Committee meeting [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum and palladium trend intensities are both 1 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 126,750, with an increase of 1,340 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,955, with a decrease of 35 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and position of both also had corresponding changes [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel - mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, Indonesia imposed sanctions on mining companies, adjusted RKAB regulations, and there were tariff threats from the US, suspension of new smelting licenses in Indonesia, production impacts in Indonesian nickel - wet projects, and Fed's dovish remarks, as well as export license management for some steel products in China [26][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0 [30].

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively surged, with copper leading at a 3.6% increase, reaching a record high of 99,730 yuan/ton [1] - Aluminum rose by 1.06%, lead by 1.68%, tin by 1.37%, and nickel by 1.31%, while zinc increased by 0.72% [1] - Alumina futures saw a significant rise of 5.6%, hitting a peak of 2,830 yuan/ton, marking a new high since November 2024 [1] - Lithium carbonate futures skyrocketed by 8.12%, reaching 131,000 yuan/ton, a new high since November 2023 [1] - The black metal sector experienced a downturn, with stainless steel remaining stable at 12,955 yuan/ton, while iron ore rose by 0.71% [1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold increased by 0.86%, reaching a peak of $4,561.6/oz, continuing to set a historical high [2] - COMEX silver surged by 4.38%, hitting a record high of $75.495/oz [2] - Domestic gold rose by 0.75%, reaching a historical high of 1,023.96 yuan/gram, while silver increased by 6.6%, reaching 18,658 yuan/kg [2] - Platinum futures rose by 9.29%, reaching a historical high of 709.85 yuan/gram before slightly retracting [2] Macroeconomic Developments - The National Venture Capital Guiding Fund focuses on cutting-edge fields such as AI, biopharmaceuticals, quantum technology, and 6G, aiming to leverage trillions in social capital [5] - The fund will adopt a three-tier structure to attract local governments, financial institutions, and enterprises, with a focus on long-term investments [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced increased investment in early-stage projects in integrated circuits, AI, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [6][7] - As of November, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [7] Oil Market - Both U.S. and Brent crude oil prices rose slightly, with U.S. oil up by 0.26% and Brent by 0.19% [13] - Oil prices are expected to face the largest annual decline since 2020, with Brent and U.S. crude projected to drop approximately 17% and 18%, respectively [13] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official inventory data, reflecting demand from the world's largest oil consumer [13]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - **Silver**: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - **Copper**: Positive market sentiment supports price increases [2]. - **Zinc**: Moving in a sideways range [2]. - **Lead**: Declining inventory supports prices [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is facing new disruptions [2]. - **Aluminum**: Showing a slightly upward - trending oscillation [2]. - **Alumina**: Continuously bottom - grinding [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - **Platinum**: Bullish sentiment dominates [2]. - **Palladium**: Oscillating upward [2]. - **Nickel**: Intense capital game on the trading floor leads to wide - range price fluctuations [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news from Indonesian nickel mines causes disruptions [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,014.24, up 1.34%; Gold T + D was 1,006.45, up 1.44%; Comex Gold 2602 was 4515.00, up 0.77% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 decreased by 2,375 to 276,418; the open interest decreased by 2,397 to 199,893. Comex Gold 2602's trading volume increased by 42,965 to 241,461, and open interest increased by 8,818 to 360,434 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 1,995 to 93,711 kg; Comex Gold inventory (previous day) increased by 114,168 to 36,120,091 troy ounces [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [8]. Silver - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 16441, up 1.50%; Silver T + D was 16420, up 1.52%; Comex Silver 2602 was 71.610, up 3.65% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 474,555 to 1,230,157; the open interest decreased by 921 to 340,510. Comex Silver 2602's trading volume increased by 30,063 to 127,435, and open interest remained unchanged at 114,525 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Silver inventory decreased by 1805 to 899,663 kg; Comex Silver inventory (previous day) decreased by 3,083,409 to 450,643,486 troy ounces [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [8]. Copper - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 96,210, up 0.11%; the night - session closing price was 97680, up 1.53%. LME Copper 3M was 12,133, up 0.65% [9]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 81,418 to 477,230; the open interest decreased by 7,370 to 651,557. LME Copper 3M's trading volume decreased by 8,111 to 18,195, and open interest decreased by 2,248 to 340,000 [9]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 6,861 to 59,083; LME Copper inventory decreased by 1,550 to 157,025, and the注销仓单 ratio was 29.63%, down 1.19% [9]. - **Trend Strength**: 2 [11]. Zinc - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 23065, down 0.71%; LME Zinc 3M was 3086.5, down 0.32% [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 46305 to 125213; the open interest decreased by 1875 to 93322. LME Zinc's trading volume decreased by 4941 to 5944, and open interest decreased by 646 to 227051 [12]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory decreased by 1092 to 41319; LME Zinc inventory increased by 7900 to 106875 [12]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [14]. Lead - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17315, up 0.52%; LME Lead 3M was 1999.5, up 0.83% [15]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract decreased by 12922 to 55100; the open interest decreased by 210 to 56328. LME Lead's trading volume decreased by 1794 to 3806, and open interest increased by 167 to 178155 [15]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 900 to 11457; LME Lead inventory decreased by 4200 to 248900 [15]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [16]. Tin - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 344,750, up 1.27%; LME Tin 3M was 42,835, up 0.25% [18]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract decreased by 11,222 to 228,643; the open interest increased by 31,914 to 61,161. LME Tin 3M's trading volume decreased by 9 to 180, and open interest increased by 53 to 13,988 [18]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 655 to 8,340; LME Tin inventory increased by 50 to 4,675, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, down 0.38% [18]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum** - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 22275, down 55; LME Aluminum 3M was 2957, unchanged [22]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract decreased by 65183 to 229349; the open interest decreased by 6450 to 290474. LME Aluminum 3M's trading volume was unchanged at 11757 [22]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [24]. - **Alumina** - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2646, up 92 [22]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Trend Strength**: 1 [24]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum** - **Price**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 686.95, up 4.46%; the price of Gold Exchange Platinum was 591.25, down 2.59% [25]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum increased by 201,102 to 227.666; the open interest increased by 718 to 48.732. NYMEX Platinum's trading volume was 82,975, and open interest was 28,141 [25]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [28]. - **Palladium** - **Price**: The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 529.05, down 8.54%; the price of RMB Spot Palladium was 416.00, down 9.37% [25]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium decreased by 2,565 to 100.293; the open interest decreased by 2,067 to 23.862. NYMEX Palladium's trading volume was 48.123, and open interest was 67.992 [25]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel** - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 125,410, down 2,590 [31]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [35]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Price**: The closing price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,990, down 85 [31]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [35].

今天（12月26日）早盘，商品市场再度上演"狂飙模式"。 在海外市场因圣诞节假期休市的背景下，国内贵金属与基本金属价格集体拉升，多个品种刷新历史纪录。 其中，广期所铂期货主力合约盘中触及涨停，沪银、沪铜强势上攻，铜价距离10万元/吨关口仅一步之遥。 铂、钯期货价格的快速上行，也再度引发交易所层面的风控"加码"。 在资金情绪与基本面共振之下，贵金属和基本金属不断改写历史纪录，成为市场关注的焦点。 有机构也提 醒，随着价格的快速拉升，贵金属市场短期波动风险显著放大。 铂期货封涨停，波动风险加大 12月26日，广期所铂期货主力合约开盘后迅速拉升，盘中触及涨停板，日内涨幅达9.99%，报709.85元/克，再 创上市以来新高。盘面显示，日内一度增仓约2800手，做多情绪依然高涨。 与此同时，国际现货铂金同步走强，价格上涨逾5%，至每盎司2333.85美元，内外盘联动明显。作为今年以来 表现最为抢眼的贵金属品种之一，铂金在供需偏紧、资金追逐以及贵金属整体走强的背景下，持续刷新市场对 其价格中枢的认知。 不过，随着价格快速拉升，波动风险也在显著放大。金瑞期货研究员吴梓杰指出，当前市场风险偏好处于高 位，价格波动不容忽视。 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间12月24日，伦敦基本金属涨跌互现，LME期铜涨0.58%报9694.00美元/吨，LME 期铝涨1.99%报2613.50美元/吨，LME期锌涨1.43%报2797.50美元/吨，LME期铅涨1.22%报1997.50美元/ 吨，LME期镍涨1.01%报15175.00美元/吨，LME期锡涨0.88%报33550.00美元/吨。 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间12月23日，伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME期镍涨2.38%报15640.00美元/吨，LME 期铜涨1.09%报12055.00美元/吨，LME期铅涨0.58%报1983.00美元/吨，LME期锌涨0.37%报3096.50美 元/吨，LME期铝跌0.02%报2941.00美元/吨，LME期锡跌0.26%报42835.00美元/吨。 ...

这份报告原定于10月30日发布，但由于创纪录的美国政府停摆而延期。数据"意外强劲"可能让市场担 心：美联储在2026年初降息的可能性变小。 【导读】美股震荡，黄金、白银、铜都创下了历史新高 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场表现。 美股震荡上涨 12月23日晚间，美股三大指数震荡微涨。 美股走势反复，美国商务部公布数据显示，美国第三季度经济增速按年化计算为4.3%，显著好于道琼 斯调查经济学家预期的3.2%。报告显示，美国经济以两年来最快速度扩张，令交易员更加相信美联储 在1月将暂停本轮宽松周期。 今年以来金价已上涨超过三分之二，有望创下自1979年以来最佳年度表现。 分析师表示："如果经济持续以这样的水平增长，就没那么需要担心经济放缓，市场的焦点反而可能重 新回到'价格稳定'这个约束上来。" 货币市场下调了对2026年降息的押注：市场预计美联储在1月降息的概率只有17%。但 CME"FedWatch"工具显示，市场整体仍大体计入了到明年年底累计两次降息的预期。 黄金、白银、铜，盘中创历史新高 23日晚间，市场另一个关注点，就是大宗商品的表现。 其中，黄金和白银双双大涨并刷新历史新高。现货白银 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's 2026 Global Economic Outlook report expresses optimism for the global economy, driven by AI-led investment and supportive monetary and fiscal policies [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. is projected to have a real GDP growth rate of 2.4% in 2026, supported by easing labor supply pressures and accelerated AI-driven business investments [1] - AI infrastructure investments are expected to contribute approximately 1% to 1.5% growth to the U.S. economy annually [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. is anticipated to decline to 4.0% in 2026, lower than the Federal Reserve's or market's expectations [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation is expected to remain sticky, averaging closer to 3% throughout 2026, with a significant decline only anticipated in the fourth quarter [1] - The current interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is considered over, with two additional rate cuts expected in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.125% by September [2] Group 3: Regional Economic Outlook - Europe is projected to maintain a GDP growth rate of 1.25% in 2026, with the European Central Bank expected to keep its policy unchanged [2] - Asia's GDP growth is forecasted to average 3.6% in 2026, supported by strong tech product exports and rising storage chip prices [2] - Economic growth in Asia will show divergence, with countries like South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and India likely to exceed market expectations, while Thailand and the Philippines may underperform [2] Group 4: AI and Commodity Markets - Concerns about an "AI bubble" are acknowledged, with the focus on whether investments in AI will yield reasonable returns [3] - The AI investment trend is expected to continue into 2026, with significant initial investments and the importance of first-mover advantages [3] - Various commodities, including precious metals and agricultural products, are anticipated to perform strongly in 2026, driven by increasing demand [3]

Group 1 - Global markets experienced a rare synchronized rebound driven by the Federal Reserve's policy shift and liquidity changes, with significant movements in the dollar, US stocks, oil prices, and base metals [1] - The rebound is characterized as not just a technical recovery but a revaluation of assets under a new macro narrative, with risk appetite returning as funds flow out of safe-haven assets [1] - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which will reveal the economic impact of rate cuts, and the OPEC+ meeting, which will influence oil price risk premiums [1] Group 2 - The market is entering a verification period with a focus on data, policy, and industry dynamics, including the release of the US core PCE and China's industrial profits [2] - The macro sentiment supporting price increases includes expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and domestic growth policies [3] - Key metals like copper and tin are in a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum and lithium face high supply expectations, necessitating caution [4] Group 3 - The overall market strategy emphasizes leveraging pullbacks to invest in strong macro and supply-demand driven commodities like copper and gold, while remaining cautious on weaker fundamental commodities like nickel [5]