Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Chinese private equity investment market shows signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, with new fund raising and investment cases increasing by 12.1% and 21.9% year-on-year, respectively, while exit cases decreased by 43.3% [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the investment sentiment has improved, attributed to policy adjustments and a recovery in the secondary market, leading to a revival in investment pace and some improvement in exits, although the challenge of "exit difficulty" remains [1] Group 3 - The report notes a shift in focus among investors towards new sectors such as high-end equipment, AI applications, and new materials, while some investors are also tracking the transportation and logistics industry, which is perceived as stable in profitability, organically growing, and undervalued [1]

来源：招商证券策略研究 本报告聚焦"反内卷"政策背景下行业产能出清的潜力与路径，通过梳理产能周期规律、复盘历史出清案例、分析当前行业财务信号，探讨哪些行业有望更 快实现低效产能退出。 核心观点 ⚑近年来，"过度内卷"频发，带来由点及面的连锁负面效应：企业层面陷入价格战导致盈利恶化、库存积压、现金流紧张；行业层面竞争失序，中小企业 加速出清、技术升级受阻，陷入低水平重复建设；宏观层面资源错配，产业链协同效率下降，抑制整体创新与高质量发展，反内卷政策背景下，多行业响 应抑制"内卷式"竞争。 ⚑实现"反内卷"与产能出清，需要价格机制、市场竞争机制与产业政策三大路径协同发力。价格机制通过市场化筛选淘汰高成本企业；竞争机制通过破产 清算与并购整合实现资源优化配置；产业政策则通过管控产能、标准约束和激励引导加速结构调整；推动行业向高质量、可持续发展转型。 ⚑复盘过去三轮周期的演绎逻辑，可以发现每一轮周期均呈现"扩张-内卷-出清-重构"的螺旋式演进，产能出清需要通过政策调控与市场机制的协同，推动 资源向高效领域集中。市场表现方面，政策或事件催化往往会形成短期的上涨行情，但重点行业持续的获得超额收益的阶段仍在基本面的改善时期 ...

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, the number of public funds heavily invested in North Exchange companies reached a record high of 39 [10][11] - The total amount of public fund investments in North Exchange companies in the first half of 2025 reached 9.892 billion yuan, with a heavy investment ratio of 0.17% [11][12] - The average return of 11 theme funds in the North Exchange was 51.72% as of July 25, 2025, with all funds achieving positive returns [18][21] Group 2 - The top ten companies by market value held by public funds in the North Exchange include Jinbo Biological, Tongli Co., Naconoer, Better Ray, and others [22][23] - The top ten companies with increased holdings by public funds include Tongli Co., Naconoer, and Better Ray, indicating a trend of increasing investment in these firms [25][26] - The top ten companies with reduced holdings include Audiwei, Lusi Co., and Wuxin Tunnel, reflecting a shift in investment strategy [27][28] Group 3 - The North Exchange 50 Index reported a weekly increase of 2.85%, reaching 1458.98 points, with a PE TTM of 68.42X [33][35] - The overall PE of North Exchange A-shares increased from 50.83X to 52.17X, indicating a rising valuation trend [30][32] - The daily average trading volume of North Exchange A-shares reached 31.082 billion yuan, up 42.03% from the previous week [32][34]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid development of the index system in China, highlighting the increasing market recognition and the accelerating trend of index-based investment, particularly focusing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's initiatives to educate investors about index investment [8]. Group 1: Index Development and Market Trends - The index system in China has been rapidly improved, leading to a growing acceptance of index-based investment strategies among investors [8]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange, in collaboration with China Fund News and China Securities Index Company, has launched educational initiatives to help investors understand the key aspects of index investment [8]. Group 2: Private Enterprises in the Sci-Tech Board - As of June 2025, there are 3,478 listed private enterprises on the A-share market, accounting for nearly two-thirds of all listed companies, with 422 of them on the Sci-Tech Board, representing over 70% [10]. - The total market capitalization of private enterprises on the Sci-Tech Board is 3.5 trillion yuan, with total revenue of 0.9 trillion yuan, constituting 58.2% and 68.0% of the total for the Sci-Tech Board, respectively [10][11]. Group 3: R&D Investment and Innovation - The Sci-Tech Board aims to support high-level technological self-reliance, focusing on "hard technology" enterprises, with private enterprises' R&D investment reaching nearly 80 billion yuan in 2024, resulting in an R&D intensity of 8.9% [12]. - The private enterprise strategy index on the Sci-Tech Board selects 50 companies based on their R&D investment and profitability, providing a tool for investors to access high-quality private enterprises [14][16]. Group 4: Index Sample Characteristics - The sample space for the private enterprise strategy index includes all private enterprises listed on the Sci-Tech Board, excluding ST and *ST securities, with a focus on liquidity and market capitalization [15][16]. - As of July 10, 2025, the total market capitalization of the index samples ranges from 2.3 billion to 50 billion yuan, covering 18% of the Sci-Tech Board [21]. Group 5: Industry Distribution - The private enterprise strategy index emphasizes support for technology enterprises, with the top three industries being new generation information technology (55.2%), biomedicine (23.6%), and high-end equipment (9.9%) [23][25]. - The average R&D investment ratio for the index samples is significantly higher than the overall A-share market, with a median of 21.4% compared to 4.3% for the A-share market [25].

Group 1: Reform Achievements - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) has significantly improved its support for "hard technology" companies, allowing unprofitable firms with key technologies to go public[11] - Since the beginning of 2025, 73 new merger and acquisition transactions have been disclosed, with 13 major transactions, nearing the total of the previous five years from 2019 to 2023[13] - In 2024, total R&D investment reached CNY 168.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, accounting for 12.67% of median operating revenue, leading all A-share sectors[19] Group 2: Market Ecosystem Optimization - 428 companies on the STAR Market have launched equity incentive plans, covering 73% of the board, with significant increases in dividend frequency and amounts[25] - 359 companies implemented dividend distributions in 2024, totaling CNY 35.8 billion, with 351 companies conducting buybacks amounting to CNY 21.5 billion[25] - The STAR Market has established a positive feedback mechanism linking R&D investment, profit growth, dividend increases, and share buybacks, fostering a healthy capital market ecosystem[26] Group 3: Innovations in Listing Standards - The reintroduction of the fifth listing standard has expanded to other tech industries, allowing unprofitable but high-growth firms to access domestic capital markets, thus avoiding overseas financing[28] - The pre-review mechanism enhances audit efficiency and protects core technologies, allowing companies to maintain confidentiality regarding sensitive information during the IPO process[33] - The introduction of seasoned professional institutional investors improves resource allocation efficiency, reducing information asymmetry and enhancing market pricing efficiency[44]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential of quantitative stock selection strategies focused on the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board (科创板) in the context of a bullish market, highlighting their strong performance and growth potential [3][4][10]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a bullish trend, rising for four consecutive weeks, indicating a potential bull market [1]. - Investor sentiment is increasingly optimistic, as observed in discussions within investment circles [2]. Group 2: Performance of Quantitative Strategies - Quantitative stock selection strategies have performed exceptionally well this year, with average excess returns exceeding 15%, and some strategies achieving over 30% [4]. - Strategies focused on the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board have outperformed, with absolute returns exceeding 50% in a high-volatility market [4]. Group 3: Characteristics of ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board - The ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board exhibit significant growth potential, with impressive returns over the past year and high annualized volatility and turnover rates [8][9]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board primarily serves "hard technology" companies, while the ChiNext focuses on growth industries such as new energy and medical technology [9]. Group 4: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - The ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board benefit from favorable government policies aimed at promoting their development, including recent initiatives to support "hard technology" enterprises [10]. - The boards are characterized by high elasticity, liquidity, and volatility, making them suitable for quantitative strategies to achieve excess returns [11]. Group 5: Specific Attributes of ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board - High elasticity is observed as companies in these boards can experience significant stock price increases following major technological breakthroughs or product launches [12]. - High liquidity is facilitated by flexible trading rules and active margin trading, enhancing market activity [14]. - High volatility is driven by rapid technological changes and competitive pressures in emerging industries, making these boards attractive for quantitative trading strategies [15].

Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, Xiegang Town achieved a GDP of 7.944 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1%, ranking second in the city for growth rate [1] - The industrial added value above designated size reached 5.26 billion, growing by 34.6%, also ranking second in the city [1] - Fixed asset investment totaled 4.31 billion, an increase of 63.9%, with industrial investment surging by 85.1% to 4.16 billion, becoming the core driver of economic growth [1] Major Projects and Investments - Xiegang Town has 30 major provincial and municipal projects with a total investment of 28.186 billion, completing 3.212 billion in investment in the first half, achieving 55.38% of the annual target [4] - Three quality projects were successfully signed in the first half, with a total investment of 722 million, expected to generate an annual output value of 1.2 billion and tax revenue of 40 million [4] - The introduction of projects like the Zhaoke Intelligent Technology Headquarters and Baoli Intelligent Equipment Headquarters is expected to fill gaps in the industrial chain and promote strategic emerging industries [4] Industrial Structure and Growth - The added value of advanced manufacturing reached 2.819 billion, a significant increase of 83.3%, accounting for over 53.6% of the industrial output above designated size [5] - The growth rate of industrial added value below designated size was 8.0%, indicating a surge in vitality among small and medium-sized enterprises [5] Foreign Investment and Trade - From January to June, actual foreign investment reached 11.991 million, a year-on-year increase of 67.68%, while total import and export volume was 3.235 billion, growing by 2.8% [6] - The service industry showed stable performance, with revenue from above-designated size service industries and key sectors growing by 17.9% and 12.3%, respectively [6] Infrastructure and Future Plans - Xiegang Town is advancing the construction of key substations to ensure stable energy supply for enterprises, with plans to build three new substations during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6] - The town aims to cultivate 3-5 "hidden champions" in niche sectors to enhance technological transformation efficiency and resilience in the industrial chain [6]

李强将出席 2025 世界人工智能大会，北证 指数温和反弹 ◼ 公司公告：无 ◼ 风险提示：个股盈利不及预期，行业竞争加剧，贸易摩擦加剧，政策不 及预期等。 证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20250724 2025 年 07 月 24 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 薛路熹 执业证书：S0600525070008 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《海南封关进一步扩大开放，北证指 数有所回调》 2025-07-23 《外资持债超 4.2 万亿，我国外汇市 场韧性凸显》 2025-07-22 东吴证券研究所 1/8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ ...

Market News - Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure will implement a policy characterized by "one line open, two lines controlled, and free flow within the island" to further expand openness[8] - As of the end of June, the balance of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing sector increased by 8.7% year-on-year, while infrastructure loans rose by 7.4%[9] - The U.S. and Japan reached a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on Japanese imports from 25% to 15%[10] Industry News - China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. was established, marking an acceleration in the development of the nuclear fusion industry in China[11] - The "Rural Road Regulations" will require upgrades for existing rural roads that do not meet minimum technical standards, effective September 15, 2025[12] Market Performance - On July 23, 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index fell by 1.58%, while the ChiNext Index slightly decreased by 0.01%[16] - The average market capitalization of the 268 North Exchange A-share constituent stocks is 3.147 billion, with a trading volume of 34.096 billion, down by 1.824 billion from the previous day[16]

Group 1 - The establishment of the Shenzhen Marine Financial Alliance aims to connect financial resources with the marine industry, facilitating a deep integration of "finance + marine" to support the construction of a marine financial ecosystem in Shenzhen and accelerate the development of a global marine center city [1][2] - The alliance's structure and development plan were introduced by the chairman unit, Bank of China Shenzhen Branch, emphasizing a development path of "policy guidance + market operation + ecological collaboration" [1] - The event featured a financing roadshow where 5 financial institutions promoted marine-specific financial products, and 7 key marine enterprises presented their financing needs, resulting in 26 marine financing projects being matched, covering areas such as green shipping, high-end equipment, marine energy development, and marine fisheries [1] Group 2 - The establishment of the Shenzhen Marine Financial Alliance is expected to deepen financial empowerment for high-quality development of the marine economy, integrating various financial resources such as banking, securities, insurance, and funds [2] - The alliance will promote regular interactions between financial institutions and marine enterprises, exploring marine risk protection systems and innovations in marine financial products to inject sustainable momentum into the marine economy [2]