Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical evolution of tariffs as a policy tool, highlighting the lessons learned from past tariff implementations and their impacts on the economy, particularly in the context of the current trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Group 1: Historical Context - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 significantly raised import tax rates, increasing the average tariff level in the U.S. from 13.5% in 1929 to 19.8% in 1933, leading to a 45% decline in nominal GDP and a 67% drop in total exports over four years, with unemployment reaching nearly 25% [1]. - Compared to the 1930s, the current global trade is characterized by international value chains, making the imposition of trade barriers more challenging and likely to disrupt supply chains [4]. Group 2: Current Trade Policies - Starting in 2018, the U.S. initiated multiple rounds of tariffs against China, escalating from $50 billion to $200 billion with a tax rate of 25%, resulting in a weakening of U.S.-China export ties and a temporary "export rush" effect in certain industries [6]. - The 2025 tariff policy under the Trump administration is expected to be more intense, with an average effective tariff rate projected to reach 22.4%, surpassing the levels seen during the Great Depression, and covering a broader range of products from consumer goods to high-tech items [10]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The macroeconomic impact of tariffs is typically gradual, with initial market reactions being severe, leading to a "rush to export" effect, as seen in 2018 when China's exports to the U.S. surged [12]. - In the medium term, as tariffs take effect, profit margins for companies reliant on imported raw materials will be squeezed, leading to reduced capital expenditure and declining consumer confidence [15]. - Long-term effects may include a restructuring of global supply chains as companies seek to mitigate costs and risks, potentially leading to a decrease in U.S.-China trade and a shift towards regionalization [18]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies in high-risk export industries, such as home appliances, automotive, and textiles, should be avoided due to their vulnerability to profit margin compression from tariffs [19]. - Focus should be on brand-name consumer goods with strong pricing power, as these companies can often pass on costs to consumers, mitigating the impact of tariffs [22]. - Industries with localized production capabilities, such as HVAC systems and large appliances, are less sensitive to tariff fluctuations and should be prioritized for investment [23]. - Sectors driven by domestic consumption, like food and beverage, exhibit relative stability and should be considered for medium to long-term investment [24]. - Technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, particularly those with domestic substitution potential, are key areas for investment focus [25]. - Resilient consumer sectors, including low-cost, high-frequency items and elder care products, are expected to perform well despite economic uncertainties [26].

图片来源于：广发证券 点击蓝字，关注我们 关税作为政策工具的历史演变 1、1930年代：斯穆特-霍利法案与全球⼤萧条的教训 1930年出台的《斯穆特-霍利关税法》在全球经济已显疲态之际，将超过两万种商品的进口税率显著上调，使美国平均关税水平从1929年的13.5%提升至 1933年的19.8%。 历史数据显示，在该法案实施后， 美国名义GDP在四年间下滑了45%，出口总额骤降67%，失业率攀升至近25% 。这一历史时期的经验深刻表明，在 全球经济高度关联的背景下，大幅度、非协商性的关税措施极易触发链式反应，最终对本国经济造成深远的负面影响。 然而，相对1930年代，当前世界贸易以国际价值链为特征，强行推进贸易壁垒会使得供应链紊乱甚至断裂， 真实落地的难度更大 ； 同时，对美国本身经济来说，当前 贸易战的冲击会远小于1930年代 ，原因在于：一是当前经济过热程度不如1920年代末期，二是美联储 有更灵活的货币政策空间，以应付可能产生的衰退或通缩。但鉴于美国当前进出口占GDP比重显著高于1930年代， 波及的人群和国家或 更广 。 2、2018年：特朗普"关税优先"政策的阶段性演绎 2018年起，美国对华发起多轮 ...

复盘中欧新蓝筹一季度的操作，周蔚文和共管基金经理冯炉丹表示，该基金在人工智能产业链上的布局 不仅涵盖了持续看好的人形机器人以及自动驾驶领域，还拓展至人工智能眼镜等新型可穿戴设备，以及 人工智能在教育、广告、游戏等应用领域。他对光模块持谨慎态度，一方面是因为行业盈利能力已处于 较高位置，另一方面是DeepSeek的出现使短期算力需求重估，中长期供需关系有所平衡。 2025年基金一季报收官，人工智能投资热度持续升温。 从最新披露的基金一季报来看，周蔚文、赵诣、刘元海等多位知名基金经理持续加码人工智能相关产业 链。部分基金明确押注人形机器人、智能驾驶等细分赛道，另一些则重点关注人工智能相关领域的头部 互联网、计算机企业。 整体来看，随着人工智能大模型加速推动产业智能化变革，相关产业正从制造端向应用端不断拓展投资 边界，AI主题有望在震荡市中持续发挥结构性优势。 周蔚文加大人形机器人布局 一季报显示，由中欧基金知名基金经理周蔚文掌舵的5只基金总管理规模超过了300亿元。以中欧新蓝筹 为例，该基金的最新管理规模为78.8亿元，重仓制造业和信息技术行业，重仓股包括万华化学 （600309）、中国平安、三花智控（00205 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company has achieved significant revenue and profit growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 1.455 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.82%, and a net profit of 12.26 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2][10]. - The company is focused on an integrated optoelectronic industry chain strategy, enhancing its market presence in the infrared optical sector and achieving a gross margin of 27.57% in 2024, up 9.09 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has successfully optimized its asset structure by divesting non-core assets, which has contributed to improved profitability [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company expects revenues to grow from 1.011 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.756 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 38.9% [1]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is projected to increase significantly from a loss of 241 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 217 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a substantial recovery [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to rise from -1.75 yuan in 2023 to 1.57 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong turnaround in profitability [1]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: ROE is forecasted to improve from -373.7% in 2023 to 18.4% in 2027, showcasing enhanced shareholder value [1]. Business Segment Insights - **Infrared Optical Business**: The infrared optical segment generated 1.283 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 54.74%, and accounted for 88.18% of total revenue [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy Business**: The aluminum alloy segment reported a slight decline in revenue to 172 million yuan in 2024, but the company is advancing in the development of high-performance aluminum products for the automotive sector [8][9]. - **Technological Leadership**: The company is recognized as a leader in domestic infrared material production, with advanced technologies in crystal growth and large-scale production of materials like zinc selenide [9][10].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 核心观点 本文从行业协会视角出发，观察 20 大中观行业的现状与未来趋势。 1 ）当前供需失衡、需求不足等问题仍然存在。 2 ）但边际上，已出现一定积极迹象， 表现为：企业正通过调整改造、并购重组等方式重构行业格局（例 如百货行业）；在总量偏弱背景下不乏结构性亮点（例如珠宝消费承压，但黄金高增）； 3 ）往后看，关注四个趋势： 通过供改改善行业环境（如光伏 / 钢铁 / 石化 / 水泥等 ）；新的增长极正在 形成（ AI/ 软件 / 演出等）； AI 助力降本提效（如餐饮 / 珠宝 / 百货等）；深耕细分领域（服装 / 珠宝 / 白酒等）。 报告摘要 一、供需失衡等症结仍存 1 ）供求失衡问题，主要集中在周期、制造业领域 ，例如： a ）石化，"面临深度调整的阵痛期"； b ）钢 铁，需求自 2020 年连续 4 年下滑，且"新的供需动态平衡机制尚未建立"； c ）水泥，"水泥市场饱和度较 高"，在需求下滑的背景下， 内卷式竞争加剧； d ） ...

泉果基金赵诣：关注AI方向及困境反转机会 金十数据4月22日讯，泉果旭源发布2025年度一季报。知名基金经理赵诣表示，随着贸易摩擦的加剧， 对于出口将产生较大的不确定性，因此对于全球化公司是否能有海外属地化运营能力将尤为关键；同时 在出口受到影响的情况下，国内对冲政策的力度也将值得关注。赵诣表示，他会主要关注两个投资方 向，一是处于较快增长的AI相关领域的头部互联网企业、计算机、电子、机械等方向；二是高端制造 中的新能源、军工等可能出现困境反转的方向。 ...

深交所公开信息显示，当日该股因日换手率达56.82%上榜，营业部席位合计净买入4515.38万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交1.62亿元，其中，买入成交额为1.03亿 元，卖出成交额为5828.39万元，合计净买入4515.38万元。 具体来看，今日上榜营业部中，第一大买入营业部为广发证券股份有限公司佛山季华六路证券营业部， 买入金额为2511.15万元，第一大卖出营业部为东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨金融城南环路证券营业 部，卖出金额为2441.44万元。 亚联机械今日涨停，全天换手率56.82%，成交额6.19亿元，振幅12.10%。龙虎榜数据显示，营业部席位 合计净买入4515.38万元。 亚联机械4月22日交易公开信息 | 买/ | 会员营业部名称 | 买入金额（万 | 卖出金额（万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卖 | | 元） | 元） | | 买一 | 广发证券股份有限公司佛山季华六路证券营业部 | 2511.15 | 1.12 | | 买二 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨金融城南环路证券营业 部 | 1973.15 | 2441.4 ...

4月22日，赵诣旗下泉果旭源三年持有期混合型基金发布2025年度一季报。泉果旭源的前十大重仓股分 别为宁德时代（300750）(300750.SZ)、科达利（002850）(002850.SZ)、腾讯控股(00700)、美团- W(03690)、立讯精密（002475）(002475.SZ)、恩捷股份（002812）(002812.SZ)、新泉股份（603179） (603179.SH)、应流股份（603308）(603308.SH)、快手-W(01024)、德业股份（605117）(605117.SH)。相 比于2024年四季度，快手-W新进前十大，振芯科技（300101）则退出了前十大。 | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 数量(股) | 公允价值(元) | 占基金资产净 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 值比例(%) | | 1 | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 4, 982, 542 | 1, 260, 284, 17 | 9.33 | | | | | | 3. 48 | | | 2 | 002850 | 科达利 | 10, ...

Buybacks, Increases, and Equity Transfers - Junxin Co. plans to repurchase shares worth 200 million to 300 million RMB, with a maximum repurchase price of 30.57 RMB per share [1] - China Communications Construction Company intends to repurchase shares worth 500 million to 1 billion RMB; the controlling shareholder plans to increase holdings by 250 million to 500 million RMB [2] - China Communications Design's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to increase holdings by 150 million to 300 million RMB [3] - Anpeilong has preliminarily set the transfer price for its inquiry at 70.89 RMB per share [3] - Deyang Co. plans to repurchase shares worth 100 million to 200 million RMB, with a maximum repurchase price of 130 RMB per share [4] External Investments and Daily Operations - Pingzhi Information has won a GPU computing power construction project worth 246 million RMB [5] - Zhongbei Communication signed a "Computing Power Service Contract" with Beijing Wanjie Data Technology Co., with a contract amount of 440 million RMB for a service period of 4 years [5] - Fengli Intelligent has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Yingboer to empower each other in fields such as new energy vehicles, joint modules, engineering machinery, eVTOL, and intelligent manufacturing [5] - Zhouming Technology plans to invest 600 million RMB to build a Micro and Mini LED display and lighting production base project [6] Performance Changes - Haiguang Information reported a net profit of 506 million RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 75.33%, driven by high R&D investment in general computing and AI computing markets [7] - Yalian Machinery reported a net profit of 57.6 million RMB in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 1088.67%, due to a high number of acceptance projects and recognition of government subsidies [8] - Dajin Heavy Industry reported a net profit of 231 million RMB in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 335.91%, attributed to a significant increase in overseas offshore project deliveries [8] - Xiantan Co. reported a net profit of 48.02 million RMB in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 583.83% [9] - Bubugao reported a net profit of 119 million RMB in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 488.44%, due to debt restructuring gains and improved operational efficiency [9] - Jinfatech reported a net profit of 247 million RMB in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 138.20% [10] - Miaokelando reported a net profit of 82.4 million RMB in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 114.88% [11] - Weilan Lithium reported a net profit of 142 million RMB in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 100.56% [12] - Xindong Link reported a net profit of 44.4 million RMB in Q1, turning profitable year-on-year [13] - Huazheng New Materials reported a net profit of 18.4 million RMB in Q1, turning profitable year-on-year [14]

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交2.18亿元，其中，买入成交额为9116.52 万元，卖出成交额为1.27亿元，合计净卖出3553.85万元。 具体来看，今日上榜营业部中，第一大买入营业部为中信证券股份有限公司浙江分公司，买入金额为 2542.16万元，第一大卖出营业部为财通证券股份有限公司温岭中华路证券营业部，卖出金额为2956.50 万元。 近半年该股累计上榜龙虎榜7次，上榜次日股价平均跌2.06%，上榜后5日平均跌4.25%。 资金流向方面，今日该股主力资金净流出7462.10万元，其中，特大单净流出6488.67万元，大单资金净 流出973.43万元。近5日主力资金净流入1.80亿元。（数据宝） 亚联机械4月21日交易公开信息 亚联机械今日下跌6.24%，全天换手率77.37%，成交额8.29亿元，振幅18.78%。龙虎榜数据显示，营业 部席位合计净卖出3553.85万元。 深交所公开信息显示，当日该股因日振幅值达18.78%、日换手率达77.37%上榜，营业部席位合计净卖 出3553.85万元。 （文章来源：证券时报网） | 买/ | 会员营业部名称 | 买入金额（万 | 卖 ...