Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 华福证券 策略点评报告：2026 年 2 月政治局会议精神学习点评 策略点评报告 2026 年 2 月 27 日 "十五五"蓝图绘就，宏观政策协同发力 投资要点： ➢ 事件：中共中央政治局2月27日召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四 届全国人民代表大会第四次会议审查的"十五五"规划纲要草案稿和审议 的《政府工作报告》稿。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议 ➢ 本次政治局会议作为"十四五"收官、"十五五"开局的关键节点会 议，确立了"十五五"时期作为基本实现社会主义现代化"夯实基础、全 面发力"的历史定位。会议通稿在宏观政策、内需体系、新质生产力及风 险防范等方面的表述极为积极。 ➢ 我们认为，"更加积极有为"是理解2026年乃至"十五五"前期政 策取向的关键词。会议强调的"实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策"并强化与改革举措的协同，意味着政策组合拳继续发力，旨在确 保"十五五"实现良好开局。 ➢ 对于资本市场而言，宏观环境的确定性将显著提升，结构性的投资机 会持续孕育。 ➢ 投资建议：继续密切关注国家重点进行战略推进的相关前沿科技领 华福证券 域。这些 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Kehua Data (002335) with a target price of 71.20 CNY [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in AI infrastructure globally, with a focus on product innovation and expanding high-quality customer relationships [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 92.71 billion CNY, 127.03 billion CNY, and 165.45 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 5.62 billion CNY, 8.30 billion CNY, and 12.23 billion CNY [2][7]. - The company has shown strong growth in its renewable energy and data center segments, with significant increases in revenue from these areas [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 7,757 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.7%. This is expected to rebound to 19.5% in 2025, followed by 37.0% in 2026 and 30.2% in 2027 [2][17]. - Net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 315 million CNY, with a significant increase to 562 million CNY in 2025, and further growth to 830 million CNY in 2026 and 1,223 million CNY in 2027 [2][17]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.61 CNY in 2024 to 1.09 CNY in 2025, reaching 1.61 CNY in 2026 and 2.37 CNY in 2027 [2][17]. Business Segments - The company's three main business segments—renewable energy, data centers, and smart electric power—are projected to generate revenues of 18.52 billion CNY, 13.98 billion CNY, and 4.39 billion CNY respectively in the first half of 2025 [7]. - The share of revenue from the renewable energy segment is expected to increase from 46.51% in 2024 to 49.62% in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7]. - The overseas business segment has shown a growth trend, with revenue increasing from 310 million CNY in 2020 to 977 million CNY in 2023, despite a slight decline in 2024 [7].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved solid-state battery testing, with industrialization expected to occur soon, targeting an energy density of over 400Wh/kg by 2026-2027, focusing on electrolyte and negative electrode collector materials [1] - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to see a bidding catalyst in 2025, with high certainty in equipment and significant flexibility in materials, offering a unit value five times that of liquid batteries [1] - JinkoSolar may collaborate with SpaceX to resolve TOPCon patent issues within the equipment chain, with auxiliary materials and flexibility being maximized, and the semiconductor and copper paste business valued at 80 billion [1] Group 2 - As of February 9, 09:43, the Kexin New Energy ETF (588830.SH) rose by 3.97%, with its related index Kexin New Energy (000692.SH) increasing by 3.89%; major constituent stocks included JinkoSolar up 10.44%, Juhua Materials up 20.00%, Rongbai Technology up 9.61%, Trina Solar up 4.15%, and Aotewi up 3.06% [1] - Guosen Securities highlights the promising prospects of space photovoltaics in the new energy power equipment sector, with global tech giants continuously expanding AI capital expenditures, leading to "outperform" ratings for certain storage equipment sector stocks [1] - Great Wall Securities believes that solid-state battery technology is entering a golden development period, with a combination of cold isostatic pressing and warm isostatic pressing processes offering efficiency and cost advantages in large-scale production, driving technological innovation in the equipment sector [1]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates a moderate slowdown in domestic economic growth, with November GDP growth estimated at 4.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from October, suggesting a low probability of significant rebound in December [9][10] - The service sector is identified as the main drag on economic growth, with a notable decline in the production index, particularly in traditional industries like finance and real estate, while emerging sectors show resilience [10] - The shift in policy focus from growth preservation to structural adjustment is highlighted, indicating a transition towards high-quality development [10] Fixed Income - The fixed income market is experiencing seasonal increases in cross-year funding demand, with expectations of rising market interest rates in December [11] - The report notes a slight fluctuation in interbank and exchange repo rates, with a forecasted increase in excess deposit reserve ratios for November and December [11] - The convertible bond market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in the average price and a decrease in the average premium rate [13][14] Industry and Company Insights - The internet securities industry is transitioning from a traditional service model to a customer-centric ecosystem, which is expected to drive innovation and growth [15][17] - The insurance asset-liability management framework is moving towards a more comprehensive regulatory system, emphasizing long-term value and risk prevention [18][19] - The food and beverage sector is projected to benefit from cost advantages and efficiency improvements, with a focus on innovation and recovery opportunities [26][28] - The electric power equipment and new energy sector is witnessing significant developments, particularly with the first large-scale green methanol project in China, indicating a market potential exceeding 10 billion annually [30][31] - Nike's performance shows regional disparities, with North America recovering faster than the Greater China region, which faces significant pressure due to competitive pricing and brand positioning challenges [32][33] - Wanhua Chemical is experiencing a rebound in MDI product prices, driven by production cuts and increased demand from the US housing market due to interest rate cuts [34][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the transformation of China's capital market under the "dual circulation" strategy, emphasizing the deepening of the "1+6" reform on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the iterative adaptation of the ChiNext admission standards to future industries [2] - In 2025, the scale of medium- and long-term capital entering the market is expected to reach a historical high, with foreign capital net increasing its holdings of domestic stocks exceeding 100 billion yuan, positioning China as a core anchor in the global capital rebalancing era [2] - The article announces an online sharing session titled "Technology Empowerment · Capital Breakthrough" scheduled for December 22, 2025, featuring insights on AI technology development and investment opportunities in China [2][6] Group 2 - The event will include presentations from notable speakers, including Kong Rong, Deputy General Manager and Chief Analyst of Overseas Research at Guolian Minsheng Research Institute, who will analyze the forefront of AI technology and its implications for investment [2][8] - The team behind the event has established strong global research resources and maintains close communication with leading companies in Silicon Valley, focusing on core sectors such as internet & Web3, new consumption, and emerging technologies [4] - The agenda includes a session led by He Zhaohui, Deputy Director of Huajin Securities Research Institute, focusing on the power equipment and new energy industry, and the announcement of the "Jingge Award" for outstanding companies [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the renewable energy sector, particularly focusing on solar and wind energy, indicating a recovery in supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant government initiative to optimize market pricing for centralized renewable energy generation, which is expected to enhance industry stability and competitiveness [3][20]. - The solar industry is positioned at the bottom of its cycle, with upcoming policy support likely to be a critical variable influencing future trends. The focus is on capacity consolidation in the silicon material segment and price regulation across the supply chain [3]. - The wind energy sector shows a balanced supply-demand structure, with strong profitability among companies. The report anticipates continued growth in offshore wind projects and an improving export situation [4]. - The electric vehicle (EV) sector is experiencing rapid growth, with a focus on cost benefits from low upstream raw material prices. The report suggests prioritizing companies that are likely to benefit from industry recovery [4]. Weekly Market Review - From December 8 to December 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74%. The Shenwan Electric Equipment Index rose by 1.19%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.27 percentage points [10]. - Within sub-sectors, solar equipment, wind equipment, batteries, and grid equipment experienced varied performance, with notable increases in wind equipment (1.94%) and grid equipment (3.65%) [10][12]. Key Sector Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key players in the solar and wind sectors, recommending companies such as Aiko Solar, Flat Glass, GCL-Poly Energy, and JunDa Technology for solar, and Goldwind Technology and Yunda Co. for wind [3][4]. - The report also notes significant developments in the EV battery sector, highlighting companies like CATL and EVE Energy as key beneficiaries of the current market dynamics [4]. Industry News Highlights - A new 20GWh battery project by De Yi Energy was launched, focusing on high-performance battery production [18]. - Beijing Weilan New Energy has initiated IPO guidance, expanding its production capabilities across multiple regions [18]. - Samsung SDI secured a significant contract for lithium iron phosphate batteries, valued at over 96 billion RMB, indicating strong demand in the energy storage market [19]. - LG Energy Solution signed a battery supply agreement with Mercedes-Benz worth approximately 98.86 billion RMB, further solidifying its market position [20].

Core Insights - The electric power equipment and renewable energy industry is entering a new cycle after three years of capacity digestion, driven by unexpected demand growth [1][2] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, global new installed capacity of renewable energy is expected to reach new heights, leading to revolutionary changes in the power system [1][2] - High proportions of wind and solar energy integration will create massive storage and capacity demands, prompting increased investments in global power grids, particularly in Europe and the US, to adapt to carbon neutrality processes [1][2] - Rising adjustment and grid renovation costs will drive up electricity prices, opening up long-term demand space for energy storage in households and businesses [1][2] - AI is expected to enhance the growth rate of global electricity consumption, increasing the importance of low-carbon, high-density power sources, and shifting data center power supply models towards higher voltage [1][2] - These changes are anticipated to begin materializing in 2026, marking the start of a new fundamental phase [1][2]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that market volatility has increased since October, but the success rate of market timing remains low due to changes in the underlying structure of incremental capital, with steady absolute return funds entering the market, reducing the effectiveness of traditional aggressive timing strategies [1][3] Market Volatility and Timing - Since October, the market has experienced two rounds of emotional volatility, with the first triggered by Trump's new tariff threats leading to a rapid reduction in active capital and a drop in daily trading volume from 2.5 trillion yuan to 1.7 trillion yuan [1] - The second round of volatility occurred after the meeting between the US and Chinese leaders, where active capital reduced positions due to uncertainties in US-China relations and high market positions approaching year-end [1][2] Structural Opportunities - Despite the volatility, the number of stocks reaching new highs has increased, with 232 stocks hitting 12-month highs by November 6, compared to 216 on September 30 [2] - The number of stocks reaching new highs in the past month rose from 384 on September 30 to 680 on November 6, indicating ongoing structural opportunities in the market [2] Steady Capital Inflow - Steady absolute return funds are increasingly entering the market, diminishing the effectiveness of traditional active timing strategies [3] - The influx of funds through stable return products is driven by declining interest rates on deposits and bank wealth management products, leading to a potential theoretical increase of 1.56 trillion yuan in the A-share market if 30% of new insurance premiums are allocated to equities [3][4] Comparison of Fund Flows - In the first nine months of the year, active public funds raised approximately 109.5 billion yuan, while passive products raised about 327 billion yuan, indicating a significant disparity compared to the potential inflow from insurance [4] - The behavior of ETF flows shows a counter-cyclical characteristic, with net inflows occurring during market corrections, highlighting a trend of "buying on dips" [5][6] Key Variables Impacting Market Trends - The stability of the overseas business environment and the construction of AI infrastructure are crucial variables affecting market trends, with the A-share market increasingly influenced by global fundamentals and US-China relations [7] - The share of overseas revenue for A-share companies is approaching 20%, indicating a growing sensitivity to international economic cycles [7] AI Infrastructure and Market Sentiment - The sustainability of AI infrastructure investment is critical for both US and A-share markets, with significant exposure to AI-related sectors [8] - Concerns about the commercial viability of AI and its impact on investment costs are prevalent, as evidenced by rising CDS spreads for major North American tech companies [8] Portfolio Adjustment Strategies - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on sectors with independent growth potential and improving ROE, rather than solely on AI narratives, to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [9][10] - The consumer sector, with a market cap share of only 7.5%, is highlighted as a relatively independent investment opportunity worth monitoring [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses a market rebound with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.24%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.88%, and the CSI 500 index by 3.46% due to ongoing negotiations between China and the U.S. and the recent important 20th Central Committee meeting [3] - Monthly economic data showed unexpected rebounds in September, with production and consumption data indicating a month-on-month recovery, including slight rebounds in retail sales and real estate [3] - The article notes that while macroeconomic indicators have improved, the micro-level corporate earnings reports are yet to show significant rebounds, with the focus on upcoming quarterly reports for confirmation [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates a decline in the activity of small-cap stocks, with overall market activity continuing to trend downward, supported mainly by core dividend and technology leading stocks [4] - The main board's timing strategy suggests maintaining a low position due to low individual stock activity despite macroeconomic rebounds, while the small-cap sector is advised to also maintain a low position [4] - The short-term momentum model recommends focusing on the electric power equipment and new energy sectors [4] Group 3 - The Shanghai Ruicheng core strategy has shown strong performance, with the TMT sector experiencing a rebound and reaching new highs, placing it at the top of its peer group [5] - The net value performance of the Shanghai Ruicheng products has also reached historical weekly highs, indicating effective beta management and composite strategies [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the gold market and AI industry chain [1][10] - A-share market outlook and sentiment analysis [2][12] - Performance of A-share and Hong Kong stock markets [7][15] Core Insights and Arguments - **A-share Market Outlook**: The expected rise of the Wind All A Index to 7,200 points and the Shanghai Composite Index to approximately 4,500 points by Q4 2025 indicates a positive outlook for the A-share market [1][5] - **Economic Conditions**: The GDP of the US and Japan has entered a downward cycle, while the Eurozone GDP peaked in Q3. Predictions suggest a weakening of the yen against the dollar and a decrease in the euro's strength against the dollar [1][6] - **Investment Strategy**: A bullish stance on the CSI All Share Index and a bearish view on the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, with a focus on sectors such as machinery, electric equipment, new energy, defense, retail, and telecommunications for relative gains in October [1][7] - **Economic Cycle Analysis**: Currently in a depression phase of the Kondratiev wave cycle, with AI expected to lead the next recovery phase. The negative impact of population decline is anticipated from 2018 to 2030 [1][8] - **Gold Market Dynamics**: Gold prices are expected to rise due to a negative correlation with real interest rates, with increased demand from ETFs and central banks. A recommendation to accumulate gold on dips is provided [1][10] - **Silver Market Insights**: Silver's performance is driven more by industrial demand than by the gold-silver ratio. Caution is advised for short-term speculative investments in silver [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **A-share Sentiment Index**: Indicates that the number of stocks reaching new highs is increasing while those reaching new lows is decreasing, suggesting a potential entry point for investors [12][13] - **Options Market Volatility**: Implied volatility for put options is higher than for call options, indicating a slightly pessimistic outlook for short-term stock movements [14] - **Hong Kong Market Sentiment**: The sentiment index shows a bearish outlook, with declining trading volume and turnover rates, despite a rise in price-to-earnings ratios [15] - **Performance of Risk Combinations**: Low-risk and medium-high risk asset allocation strategies have shown positive returns, with the low-risk combination achieving a 2.57% absolute return year-to-date [17] - **Industry and Style Rotation**: The computer industry shows the highest growth rate, closely related to AI, while sectors like defense, retail, and non-bank financials are gaining institutional attention [18][19]