证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 (1998) (200) 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 宏观与策略 宏观快评:美国 11 月 CPI 点评-通胀回落，指引失真 宏观周报:宏观经济周报-年末放缓，质量上扬 固定收益专题研究:资金观察，货币瞭望-跨年资金需求季节性抬升，预 计 12 月市场利率上行 固 定 收 益 快 评 : 可 交 换 私 募 债 跟 踪 - 私 募 EB 每 周 跟 踪 （20251215-20251219） 固定收益周报:转债市场周报-弱资质及临期个券出现扰动 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-19 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3890.44 | 13140.21 | 4568.17 | 14068.19 | 3805.90 | 1308.58 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.36 | 0.66 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.73 | 0.20 | ...

2025年，中国资本市场在"双循环"新格局下加速蜕变：科创板"1+6"改革深化硬科技企业培育，创业板准入标准迭代适配未来产业，中长期资金入市规模 创历史新高。在全球货币政策分化与地缘重构的背景下，人民币资产配置价值凸显，外资年内净增持境内股票超千亿元，中国正成为全球资本再平衡时代 的核心锚点。 值此历史性转折期，格隆汇将于2025年12月22日星期一下午举办【"科技赋能·资本破局"——线上分享会】。 执棋者谋势，破局者立新。期待与您共绘中国资本市场全球化3.0时代的价值坐标，见证金融赋能新质生产力的历史性跨越。 本次活动我们很荣幸邀请到了国联民生研究所副总经理兼海外研究首席分析师孔蓉女士，她将深度解析AI科技前沿发展，聚焦全球技术迭代、产业应用 与投资机遇，以海外研究视角揭示AI浪潮下的"中国机会"。 孔蓉 国联民生研究所副总经理兼海外研究首席分析师 15 年证券行业研究经历，持续前瞻挖掘全球科技最新趋势。2022年底开始率先开启了资本市场对于 AI 的关注和认知，所在团队全球AI深度研究获得产业 广泛认可，具有完整的AI研究体系。 全市场Deepseek行情发动者，最早提出重视Deepseek将带来中国AI ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|能源|新能源 证券研究报告 新能源行业周报、月报 2025 年 12 月 18 日 [Table_Title] "反内卷"促扭亏，供需逐步修复 ——电力设备新能源行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 周度行情回顾 2025 年 12 月 8 日至 12 月 13 日，上证综指下跌 0.34%，深证成指上 涨 0.84%，创业板指上涨 2.74%。其中申万电力设备上涨 1.19%，较 沪深 300 跑赢 1.27pct。细分子行业来看，申万光伏设备/风电设备/电 池/电网设备分别涨跌 0.77%/1.94%/-0.07%/3.65%。 重点板块跟踪 12 月 11 日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布关于优化集中式新能 源发电企业市场报价的通知（试行）。内容指出，参与集中报价的新 能源发电企业，原则上集中后的总装机规模不应超过所在省（区、市） 电力市场单个最大燃煤发电厂装机规模（不含特高压输电通道配套电 源）。原则上仅允许同一集团（同一母公司、同一控股股东、同一实 际控制人等）内同一省（区、市）的新能源发电企业进行集中报价， 禁止跨集团、跨省（区、市）集中报价。 ...

Core Insights - The electric power equipment and renewable energy industry is entering a new cycle after three years of capacity digestion, driven by unexpected demand growth [1][2] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, global new installed capacity of renewable energy is expected to reach new heights, leading to revolutionary changes in the power system [1][2] - High proportions of wind and solar energy integration will create massive storage and capacity demands, prompting increased investments in global power grids, particularly in Europe and the US, to adapt to carbon neutrality processes [1][2] - Rising adjustment and grid renovation costs will drive up electricity prices, opening up long-term demand space for energy storage in households and businesses [1][2] - AI is expected to enhance the growth rate of global electricity consumption, increasing the importance of low-carbon, high-density power sources, and shifting data center power supply models towards higher voltage [1][2] - These changes are anticipated to begin materializing in 2026, marking the start of a new fundamental phase [1][2]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that market volatility has increased since October, but the success rate of market timing remains low due to changes in the underlying structure of incremental capital, with steady absolute return funds entering the market, reducing the effectiveness of traditional aggressive timing strategies [1][3] Market Volatility and Timing - Since October, the market has experienced two rounds of emotional volatility, with the first triggered by Trump's new tariff threats leading to a rapid reduction in active capital and a drop in daily trading volume from 2.5 trillion yuan to 1.7 trillion yuan [1] - The second round of volatility occurred after the meeting between the US and Chinese leaders, where active capital reduced positions due to uncertainties in US-China relations and high market positions approaching year-end [1][2] Structural Opportunities - Despite the volatility, the number of stocks reaching new highs has increased, with 232 stocks hitting 12-month highs by November 6, compared to 216 on September 30 [2] - The number of stocks reaching new highs in the past month rose from 384 on September 30 to 680 on November 6, indicating ongoing structural opportunities in the market [2] Steady Capital Inflow - Steady absolute return funds are increasingly entering the market, diminishing the effectiveness of traditional active timing strategies [3] - The influx of funds through stable return products is driven by declining interest rates on deposits and bank wealth management products, leading to a potential theoretical increase of 1.56 trillion yuan in the A-share market if 30% of new insurance premiums are allocated to equities [3][4] Comparison of Fund Flows - In the first nine months of the year, active public funds raised approximately 109.5 billion yuan, while passive products raised about 327 billion yuan, indicating a significant disparity compared to the potential inflow from insurance [4] - The behavior of ETF flows shows a counter-cyclical characteristic, with net inflows occurring during market corrections, highlighting a trend of "buying on dips" [5][6] Key Variables Impacting Market Trends - The stability of the overseas business environment and the construction of AI infrastructure are crucial variables affecting market trends, with the A-share market increasingly influenced by global fundamentals and US-China relations [7] - The share of overseas revenue for A-share companies is approaching 20%, indicating a growing sensitivity to international economic cycles [7] AI Infrastructure and Market Sentiment - The sustainability of AI infrastructure investment is critical for both US and A-share markets, with significant exposure to AI-related sectors [8] - Concerns about the commercial viability of AI and its impact on investment costs are prevalent, as evidenced by rising CDS spreads for major North American tech companies [8] Portfolio Adjustment Strategies - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on sectors with independent growth potential and improving ROE, rather than solely on AI narratives, to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [9][10] - The consumer sector, with a market cap share of only 7.5%, is highlighted as a relatively independent investment opportunity worth monitoring [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses a market rebound with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.24%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.88%, and the CSI 500 index by 3.46% due to ongoing negotiations between China and the U.S. and the recent important 20th Central Committee meeting [3] - Monthly economic data showed unexpected rebounds in September, with production and consumption data indicating a month-on-month recovery, including slight rebounds in retail sales and real estate [3] - The article notes that while macroeconomic indicators have improved, the micro-level corporate earnings reports are yet to show significant rebounds, with the focus on upcoming quarterly reports for confirmation [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates a decline in the activity of small-cap stocks, with overall market activity continuing to trend downward, supported mainly by core dividend and technology leading stocks [4] - The main board's timing strategy suggests maintaining a low position due to low individual stock activity despite macroeconomic rebounds, while the small-cap sector is advised to also maintain a low position [4] - The short-term momentum model recommends focusing on the electric power equipment and new energy sectors [4] Group 3 - The Shanghai Ruicheng core strategy has shown strong performance, with the TMT sector experiencing a rebound and reaching new highs, placing it at the top of its peer group [5] - The net value performance of the Shanghai Ruicheng products has also reached historical weekly highs, indicating effective beta management and composite strategies [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the gold market and AI industry chain [1][10] - A-share market outlook and sentiment analysis [2][12] - Performance of A-share and Hong Kong stock markets [7][15] Core Insights and Arguments - **A-share Market Outlook**: The expected rise of the Wind All A Index to 7,200 points and the Shanghai Composite Index to approximately 4,500 points by Q4 2025 indicates a positive outlook for the A-share market [1][5] - **Economic Conditions**: The GDP of the US and Japan has entered a downward cycle, while the Eurozone GDP peaked in Q3. Predictions suggest a weakening of the yen against the dollar and a decrease in the euro's strength against the dollar [1][6] - **Investment Strategy**: A bullish stance on the CSI All Share Index and a bearish view on the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, with a focus on sectors such as machinery, electric equipment, new energy, defense, retail, and telecommunications for relative gains in October [1][7] - **Economic Cycle Analysis**: Currently in a depression phase of the Kondratiev wave cycle, with AI expected to lead the next recovery phase. The negative impact of population decline is anticipated from 2018 to 2030 [1][8] - **Gold Market Dynamics**: Gold prices are expected to rise due to a negative correlation with real interest rates, with increased demand from ETFs and central banks. A recommendation to accumulate gold on dips is provided [1][10] - **Silver Market Insights**: Silver's performance is driven more by industrial demand than by the gold-silver ratio. Caution is advised for short-term speculative investments in silver [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **A-share Sentiment Index**: Indicates that the number of stocks reaching new highs is increasing while those reaching new lows is decreasing, suggesting a potential entry point for investors [12][13] - **Options Market Volatility**: Implied volatility for put options is higher than for call options, indicating a slightly pessimistic outlook for short-term stock movements [14] - **Hong Kong Market Sentiment**: The sentiment index shows a bearish outlook, with declining trading volume and turnover rates, despite a rise in price-to-earnings ratios [15] - **Performance of Risk Combinations**: Low-risk and medium-high risk asset allocation strategies have shown positive returns, with the low-risk combination achieving a 2.57% absolute return year-to-date [17] - **Industry and Style Rotation**: The computer industry shows the highest growth rate, closely related to AI, while sectors like defense, retail, and non-bank financials are gaining institutional attention [18][19]

Group 1 - The fund "Quanguo Xuyuan Three-Year Holding Period Mixed Fund" is set to welcome its first redemption date next month, after three years of operation, during which it has remained in a loss state, underperforming its peers by approximately 14 percentage points [1] - As of September 12, the fund's A share net value has decreased by 1.87% from October 18, 2022, while the average return of similar funds during the same period was 12.52% [1] - The fund is the first public offering launched by Quanguo Fund and is currently the largest product under the company's management [1] Group 2 - Since the second half of this year, the net value of the fund has shown a rebound, with a cumulative increase of 27.87% from July 1 to September 12, outperforming the benchmark return by nearly 18 percentage points and also surpassing the average return of similar funds by 21.23% [2] - The top holdings of the fund have performed well, with the largest holding, Keda Li, increasing nearly 35% in price, and the second largest holding, Ningde Times, rising by 41% [2] - Many investors are expressing their anticipation for the redemption, with some stating they have been waiting for three years to break even, while others feel that they would have been better off investing in an index three years ago [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed results on September 3, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.16% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.65%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.95% [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) experienced a decline of 0.98%, despite several of its holdings, such as Sungrow Power Supply, Baillie Gifford, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, increasing by 15.30%, 13.39%, and 12.08% respectively [1] - Year-to-date, the A500 ETF (512050) has risen by 17.16%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by over 3% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expressed optimism regarding the Chinese stock market, indicating that there is still upward potential driven by capital inflows [2] - The A500 ETF (512050) is designed to help investors capture market opportunities by providing exposure to core A-share assets, utilizing a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading stock selection [2] - The A500 ETF covers all 35 sub-industries in the CSI A500 Index, with a focus on sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy, showcasing a natural "barbell" investment strategy [2]

Group 1 - The first batch of mutual fund mid-term reports for 2025 has been released, with several fund managers including Ruiyuan Fund, Galaxy Fund, Zhonggeng Fund, and Nanhua Fund disclosing their reports [1] - Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund, managed by Fu Pengbo, has hidden heavy holdings in stocks such as BQ Materials, Sunny Optical Technology, Guanghui Energy, Innovent Biologics, Alibaba-W, BYD, Dongshan Precision, Bluestar Technology, Su Da Weige, and Berthelot [1] - Galaxy Industrial Power Mixed Fund, managed by Zheng Weishan, maintains a focus on high-end manufacturing industries, with adjustments in industry allocation but still primarily invested in electronics, computers, power equipment, new energy, communications, and machinery [1] Group 2 - The hidden heavy holdings of Galaxy Industrial Power Mixed Fund include stocks like Shunluo Electronics, Zhongke Feimeng, Shengbang Co., Jianghai Co., and Zhichun Technology, with each stock's market value accounting for over 2% of the fund's net asset value as of the end of Q2 [1] - Liu Sheng, manager of Zhonggeng Value Navigation Mixed Fund, expresses optimism about equity assets, highlighting strong business growth attributes in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, new energy, and smart electric vehicles [1] - The innovative drug sector has shown a continuous industrial trend since Q2, although some signs of bubble formation have emerged in trading, yet there are still opportunities to select undervalued companies with improving core competitiveness [1]