1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume of Shanghai copper continued to decline. As of today's close, Shanghai copper dropped by over RMB 10,000/ton from its high. The short - term macro atmosphere has weakened significantly, and the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors have declined notably. The willingness of previous long - position holders to close their positions has increased significantly. The spread between February and March contracts has weakened as copper prices fell, reflecting that the industry is not short of spot and near - month electrolytic copper. Technically, the futures price has fallen back to the trading range since January, and the pressure at the upper edge of the range can be continuously monitored [6]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume of Shanghai aluminum continued to decline. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum once rose to the RMB 26,000 mark and has since fallen back to around RMB 24,600 as of today's close. The short - term macro atmosphere has weakened, non - ferrous metals have generally declined, and the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions is relatively strong. The spread between February and March contracts has rebounded significantly. As aluminum prices fall, the industry's willingness to replenish inventories may increase [7]. - **Nickel**: Last night, nickel prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume continued to decline. The main contract price of Shanghai nickel once rose to the RMB 150,000 mark and closed at the RMB 140,000 mark today. At the macro level, the short - term market has weakened, and the non - ferrous sector has generally declined. Nickel prices have followed the downward trend. At the industrial level, the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength remains unchanged, and short - term driving forces are weak. Technically, the support level at the RMB 140,000 mark should be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: This week, the raw material and finished product inventories of domestic refined copper rods have generally run smoothly. Raw material procurement and stocking have been advancing in an orderly manner, with a slight accumulation of inventory. The finished product inventory has increased due to the slowdown in downstream pick - up rhythm and the pre - holiday stocking operations of enterprises. On January 29, the social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 335,800 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from January 26 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: On January 30, China Aluminum (02600.HK) announced that on the same day, the company, Rio Tinto, and Valoriza Alumínio jointly entered into a share purchase agreement. According to the agreement, the company and Rio Tinto will acquire 446,606,615 common shares of Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA) held by Valoriza Alumínio through a joint - venture company in cash. These shares account for 68.596% of the total issued shares of CBA, and the acquisition price is approximately 4.689 billion Brazilian reals, equivalent to approximately RMB 6.286 billion [12]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts including copper spot premium/discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME+COMEX), SHFE warrant inventory, and the relationship between the spread of Shanghai copper contracts and the main contract price [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum spread between contracts, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report provides charts including nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

1月30日，和讯投顾魏玉根表示，有色金属、金银铜、铝，在期货和股票市场今日均大幅下跌，究竟发 生了什么？这波行情是否就此结束，还会跌多少，是否会如商业航天等板块般跌幅巨大？我们来分析下 跌原因，主要有三点：其一，近期这些品种涨势过猛、过快，加速上涨后回调风险本就临近，且此前空 头被压制严重，如今下跌时便加大做空力度，加速了跌势。其二，期货市场量化机构众多，以做趋势为 主。上涨时，量化CTA大量跟多单推动快速上扬；下跌时又秒转空单，由于期货T+0且可双向交易，就 会出现期货市场一秒闪崩5个点的情况，昨晚的惊魂一跳主要就是量化市场操作所致。其三，昨晚美国 宣布1月不降息，3月大概率也不降，同时美国和日本出手管控汇率与债市，美元指数止跌回稳。综合这 些因素，黄金价格骤降，白银前期涨幅大也大幅下跌。铜和铝刚跟随黄金上涨，此次也随之下跌，目前 铜和铝的期货与现货价格基本回到两三天前起涨位置。黄金和白银等回调充分后才会止稳，蓄势寻找下 一波上攻机会，毕竟这波大宗商品行情是全球投资者共识，跌到位后仍会重新积聚力量上扬。铜和铝在 供需失衡下易涨难跌，求稳的话，可等其跌至前期低点筑底企稳后，再寻找上涨机会。黄金和白银前期 涨幅 ...

Group 1 - The recent adjustment in non-ferrous metals is primarily driven by the strengthening of the US dollar, influenced by market expectations regarding the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh, who advocates for a "strong dollar, loose regulation, and favorable credit" [1] - Concerns surrounding the US-Iran crisis have eased, but the future trajectory remains uncertain and requires time and policy validation [1] - There has been a phase of inventory accumulation and changes in funding behavior, with some metals experiencing a noticeable rebound in inventory after price increases, while previously accumulated long positions were liquidated amid changing macroeconomic conditions [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the China Securities Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) saw significant declines in major stocks, with Nanshan Aluminum down 10.05% and Tongling Nonferrous Metals down 10.01% [2] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF Penghua (159162) reported an active trading session with a turnover of 16.29% and a transaction volume of 1.03 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant market [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, which includes companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Northern Rare Earth, account for 56.18% of the index [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.96% to close at 4117.95 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.66% at 14205.89 points. The ChiNext Index, however, increased by 1.27% to 3346.36 points [1]. - Overall, there were 2449 stocks that rose and 2892 that fell, with a total trading volume of 28355 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 3945 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included Communication, Electronics, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishing, with respective gains of 3.44%, 0.68%, 0.65%, 0.54%, and 0.21%. Conversely, the sectors that experienced the largest declines were Non-ferrous Metals, Steel, Food and Beverage, Real Estate, and Computers, with declines of 7.80%, 2.83%, 2.78%, 2.47%, and 1.96% respectively [1]. Concept Sectors - The top-performing concept sectors today included Optical Modules (CPO), Optical Communication, Optical Chips, Biological Breeding, Advanced Packaging, and others, while Industrial Metals, Rare Earths, and Gold Jewelry saw a pullback [2][11].

报告要点 1）加仓选手：偏成长风格的平衡与调整，Q4加工业金属、军工电子、光伏设备，减电池、数字媒体、社交； 2）减仓选手：成长选手的价值转向，Q4加元件、白酒、煤炭开采，减通信设备、半导体、乘用车； 一、公募整体持仓变化：增配有色、通信，减配电子、医药 25Q4公募基金加仓行业：有色、通信等，减仓电子、医药等。从持仓市值占比的绝对值看，截至25Q4持仓市值前五行业：电子（23.9%）、电 新（11.5%）、通信（11.1%）、医药（8.2%）、有色（8.0%）。而持仓市值后五行业：综合（0.1%）、美护（0.1%）、纺服（0.2%）、社服 （0.3%）、环保（0.3%）。从持仓市值占比的环比变动看，25Q4公募加仓前五行业：有色（持仓市值占比提升2.1pct）、通信（1.8pct）、非银 （0.9pct）、化工（0.8pct）、机械（0.7pct）；减仓前五行业：电子（-1.6pct）、医药（-1.6pct）、传媒（-1.2pct）、电新（-0.9pct）、计算机 （-0.8pct）。 3）调仓选手：均衡配置选手的风格内调整，Q4加半导体、工业金属、保险，减消费电子、电池、国有行； 4）极致风格：最极致的成 ...

Group 1 - Citigroup reports that copper prices have surged, briefly surpassing the target price of $14,000 per ton set recently, driven by strong buying from Chinese investors amid rising precious metal prices and a weak dollar [1] - Citigroup expresses a lack of confidence in the recent copper price trend, suggesting that in the coming two weeks, Chinese investors may further allocate funds to base metals to counteract the rise in precious metals [1] - Despite the potential for copper prices to reach $15,000 to $16,000 per ton, Citigroup's basic expectation is that copper prices will stabilize around $13,000 per ton by 2026, sufficient to achieve market supply-demand balance this year [1] Group 2 - Citigroup notes that global electric vehicle sales growth has slowed due to lower-than-expected adoption rates outside of China, with frequent policy changes negatively impacting these markets [2] - The Chinese electric vehicle market, the largest globally, is showing early signs of saturation and growth slowdown, although recent trends in China have somewhat offset this [2] - Overall demand growth is expected to suppress the growth of copper and battery materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt, which are related to the energy transition [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.96% closing at 4117 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.66%. In contrast, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.27% [1] - The total market turnover was 2.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of 397 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 2900 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The CPO concept stocks rose significantly, with companies like Hengtong Optic-Electric and Yangtze Optical Fibre achieving daily price limits [1] - The genetically modified and grain sectors also performed well, with Dunhuang Seed Industry and Nongfa Seed Industry hitting daily price limits [1] - The paper and printing sector saw gains, with Songyang Resources reaching its daily price limit [1] - The communication module, aquaculture, and communication equipment sectors had notable increases [1] Declining Sectors - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced sharp declines, with nearly twenty stocks including Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold hitting daily price limits [1] - Lithium mining stocks fell, with Xibu Mining reaching its daily price limit [1] - The previously strong-performing liquor and beer stocks saw widespread declines, with Guyue Longshan leading the drop [1] - The automotive dismantling, oil and gas service, and cultivated diamond sectors had significant losses [1] Top Gainers and Fund Flows - The top gainers included the communication equipment sector with a rise of 2.92%, followed by the restaurant and tourism sector at 1.48% [2] - Net capital inflows were observed in the agriculture sector, which increased by 2.16% [2] - The five-day performance showed the paper sector with a rise of 1.599% [2]

| 代码 | 名称 | 最新 | 涨幅% T | IOPV | 溢折率% | 成交额 | 年初至今涨幅% | 换手% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 517400 | 黄金股票ETF | 2.229 | -10.01 | 2.2505 | -0.96 | 3.71 Z | 37.93 | 18.14 | | 159562 | 黄金股ETF | 3.069 | -10.00 | 3.0913 | -0.72 | 12.76 Z | 37.56 | 13.10 | | 159321 | 黄金股票ETF | 2.197 | -10.00 | 2.1798 | 0.79 | 1.67 Z | 40.29 | 17.56 | | 517520 | 黄金股ETF | 2.819 | -9.99 | 2.8614 | -1.48 | 13.53 Z | 38.19 | 6.45 | | 159322 | 黄金股票ETF基金 | 2.270 | 666 | 2.2953 | -1.10 | 7091万 | 36.25 | 19.37 | ...

Group 1 - The overall change in public fund holdings shows an increase in allocation to non-ferrous metals and communications, while reducing allocation to electronics and pharmaceuticals. The top five industries with increased holdings are non-ferrous metals (up 2.1 percentage points), communications (1.8 percentage points), non-bank financials (0.9 percentage points), chemicals (0.8 percentage points), and machinery (0.7 percentage points). The top five industries with reduced holdings are electronics (-1.6 percentage points), pharmaceuticals (-1.6 percentage points), media (-1.2 percentage points), electric new energy (-0.9 percentage points), and computers (-0.8 percentage points) [1][8][12] Group 2 - The report categorizes funds into four types: increasing, decreasing, adjusting, and extreme style. The increasing funds focus on growth style, adding positions in industrial metals, military electronics, and photovoltaic equipment, while reducing positions in batteries, digital media, and social networks. Decreasing funds are shifting from growth to value, adding positions in components, liquor, and coal mining, while reducing positions in communication equipment, semiconductors, and passenger vehicles. Adjusting funds show a balanced configuration, adding positions in semiconductors, industrial metals, and insurance, while reducing positions in consumer electronics, batteries, and state-owned banks. Extreme style funds make internal adjustments within their styles, adding communication equipment and renovation materials while reducing consumer electronics and bioproducts [7][15][16] Group 3 - The report highlights that the consensus for selling includes bioproducts, internet e-commerce, consumer electronics, social media, batteries, and digital media, while the consensus for buying includes insurance, securities, chemical products, components, photovoltaic equipment, and industrial metals [15][16][18] Group 4 - The analysis indicates that increasing funds prefer large-cap and high-valuation stocks, while decreasing and adjusting funds focus on both growth and profitability. Extreme growth funds tend to hold small-cap, high-valuation stocks with pressured profitability, while extreme value funds focus on low-valuation, large-cap stocks with low earnings growth [7][18][25]

有色金属震荡调整，消息面上，前美联储理事凯文·沃什于周四在白宫会见了美国总统特朗普。市场预 测平台Polymarket最新显示，鹰派沃什被特朗普提名为美联储新主席的概率飙升至87%。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳 钼业、北方稀土、华友钴业、中国铝业、赣锋锂业、云铝股份、山东黄金、中金黄金、天齐锂业，前十 大权重股合计占比51.65%。 有色ETF鹏华(159880)，场外联接(A：021296；C：021297；I：022886)。 截至2026年1月30日 14:02，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)成分股方面涨跌互现，湖南黄金领涨 9.99%，中钨高新上涨0.47%，铂科新材上涨0.18%；南山铝业领跌。有色ETF鹏华(159880)最新报价2.41 元，盘中净申购1750万份，冲刺连续7天净流入。 有色ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指 ...