Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices generally declined this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index falling to varying degrees. The performance of the four stock - index futures was differentiated. The domestic economic data in November continued to be weak, and the US employment and inflation data in November showed a slowdown, but the market's confidence in the data was affected by the government shutdown, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation only slightly increased. The market trading activity declined compared with last week [8]. - In November, the external demand in the fundamentals improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting in December set a positive tone. Next year, fiscal and monetary policies will continue to be loose, but the market still has differences on the implementation rhythm of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, the market lacks incremental information, and the interest rate may continue to fluctuate [8]. - The real - estate sector dragged down the overall fixed - asset investment. The growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing investment decreased slightly, and the real - estate sector remained at a low level. The production declined, and the differentiation between upstream and downstream enterprises became more serious. The policy of expanding domestic demand is expected to be continuously strengthened, which is expected to drive the growth of the consumer market [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.28%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock - Index Futures fell by 0.10%. A - share major indices generally declined, and the four stock - index futures showed differentiated performance. The domestic economic data in November was weak, and the US employment and inflation data in November had credibility issues due to the government shutdown. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation only slightly increased, and the market trading activity declined. Allocation suggestion: Buy on dips [8]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.04%, with a weekly change of - 0.07BP, and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose by 0.14%. In November, the external demand improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The policies in December were positive, and the expectation of loose monetary policy increased, but there were differences in the market regarding the implementation rhythm of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, the interest rate may continue to fluctuate. Allocation suggestion: Range trading [8]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose by 1.50%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 0.43%. With the strengthening of crude oil and gold, the commodity index is expected to further strengthen. Attention should be paid to the US CPI and PCE data released on Friday. Allocation suggestion: Wait - and - see [8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate fell by 0.12%, and the euro - US dollar 2603 contract fell by 0.19%. The weak non - farm payrolls report, lower - than - expected CPI inflation data, and the dovish stance of FOMC officials support the Fed's loose policy path. The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts will suppress the US dollar index. The Bank of Japan's tendency to turn hawkish and the European Central Bank's wait - and - see attitude will support the euro and the yen in the short term. Allocation suggestion: Cautious wait - and - see [8]. Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The central government emphasized expanding domestic demand, stabilizing the real - estate market, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy next year. It will also focus on preventing and resolving financial risks [14]. - **International News**: The Fed's Williams said the current policy stance was appropriate; Trump's new policy may weaken US AI regulation; multiple Fed officials expressed their views on inflation and interest - rate cuts; Europe proposed to form a "multinational force" to support Ukraine [16]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: From January to November, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with real - estate investment falling by 15.9%. In November, the social consumer goods retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year and decreased by 0.42% month - on - month [12]. - **US**: In November, the unemployment rate was 4.6%, the non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year [11][17]. - **EU**: The eurozone's industrial output in October increased by 0.8% month - on - month, and the December manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.2 [17]. - **UK**: The November unemployment rate was 4.39%, the December manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.2, and the central bank interest rate was cut to 3.75% [17]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - On December 22, 2025, China's one - year loan prime rate and the UK's Q3 GDP annual growth rate final value will be released. - On December 24, 2025, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 will be released. - On December 25, 2025, Japan's November unemployment rate will be released [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1730 in the short - term [7]. - The urea market first declined and then rebounded slightly this week. After India's new urea tender, the futures price rose, and the spot market sentiment was boosted [8]. - New device overhauls led to a slight decrease in domestic urea production this week. Production is expected to increase slightly next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline steadily [8]. - Domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline this week, and there is a possibility of further destocking in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1670 - 1730 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: The urea market first declined and then rebounded slightly. The average price in Shandong increased by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. After India's tender, the futures price rose, and the spot market improved [8]. - Market outlook: Production may increase slightly next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline. Enterprise inventories may continue to decline [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 0.83% this week [11]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of December 19, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 19 [14]. - Open interest analysis: There is no specific analysis content in the provided text. - Warehouse receipts: As of December 19, there were 10976 urea warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 320 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of December 18, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1700 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [28]. - Overseas price: As of December 18, the FOB price of urea in China was 387.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from last week [32]. - Basis: As of December 18, the urea basis was 2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal price: As of December 17, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week [39]. - Natural gas price: As of December 18, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.95 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.16 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Capacity utilization and production: As of December 18, China's urea production was 136.59 tons, a decrease of 1.95 tons from the previous period, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 80.69%, a 1.16% decrease from the previous period [42]. - Inventory: As of December 18, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 tons, a 12.20% increase from the previous period. As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a 4.42% decrease from last week [45]. - Export: In October 2025, urea exports were 120.25 tons, a 12.30% decrease from the previous month, and the average export price was 432.05 dollars/ton, a 10.83% decrease from the previous month [48]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [51]. - Melamine: As of December 18, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from last week [51].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 碳酸锂市场周报 需求稳定库存持降，锂价或将有所支撑 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 研究员:陈思嘉 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4 110000 120000 碳酸锂主力合约收盘价及持仓量 800000 来源：ifind 瑞达期货研究院 来源：ifind 瑞达期货研究院 截至2025年12月19日，碳酸锂近远月跨期价差为-1680元/吨，周环比增加220元/吨。 截至2025年12月19日，碳酸锂主力合约收盘价111400元/吨，周环比增加13680元/吨。 图1、碳酸锂主力合约收盘及持仓量 图2、碳酸锂跨期套利 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡偏强，涨跌幅为+14%，振幅16.58%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价111400元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，"十五五"开局之年，适度宽松的货币政策要努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升，这首先要求 明年金融总量保持合理增长，充分满足实体经济融资需求。市场机构普遍预计明年降准、降息分别有0 ...

Report Summary 1. Strategy Suggestion - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market strengthened, while the inland market was weak. The overall methanol production increased as the output from restored capacity exceeded the loss from maintenance and reduction. Inland supply was abundant, and enterprise inventory increased. Port inventory showed a narrow decline overall, with different trends in East and South China. The MTO industry's weekly average operation rate decreased, but it is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Condition**: The port methanol market strengthened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2070 - 2190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2050 - 2130 yuan/ton. Inland prices were weak, with Ordos' price ranging from 1950 - 1973 yuan/ton and Dongying's receiving price from 2225 - 2230 yuan/ton [8] - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland supply was sufficient, and enterprise inventory increased. Port inventory decreased slightly overall. The MTO industry's operation rate is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed higher, with a weekly increase of 2.33% [12] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of December 19, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 26 [16] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 18, there were 6789 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1834 from last week [23] 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Prices**: As of December 18, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2167.5 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1925 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 242.5 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from last week [29] - **Foreign Prices**: As of December 18, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 251 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 67 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from last week [34] - **Basis**: As of December 18, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 6.5 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.4 Industry Chain - **Upstream**: As of December 17, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 18, the NYMEX natural gas closed at 3.95 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.16 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] - **Industry**: As of December 18, China's methanol production was 2055975 tons, an increase of 18370 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.52%, a week - on - week increase of 0.90%. As of December 17, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 39.11 million tons, an increase of 3.83 million tons from the previous period, and the order backlog was 22.04 million tons, an increase of 1.30 million tons from the previous period. The total port inventory was 121.88 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons from the previous period. In October 2025, China's methanol imports were 161.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports were 1127.93 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of December 18, the import profit was 5.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.7 yuan/ton from last week [47][50][54] - **Downstream**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 89.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. As of December 19, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 1031 yuan/ton, a decrease of 198 yuan/ton from last week [57][60]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 19」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周贵金属市场延续偏强运行。受持续性库存偏紧因素影响，白银挤仓行情持续演绎，伦敦银和沪银 主力合约价格大幅上涨，金价本周震荡为主。美国11月就业人数的增长依然疲软，失业率上升，表明在10月表现 异常疲弱之后，劳动力市场的降温态势持续。11月核心CPI创下2021年初以来最慢增速，整体CPI同比上涨2.7%， 显著低于市场预期。受前期美政府停摆影响，10月CPI报告未能公布，本次CPI数据的可靠性亦受到市场质疑。美 联储理事沃勒最新表示，随着就业市场趋弱且通胀受控，美联储仍有50至100个基点的降息空间。但基于当前的 经济前景，美联储无需采取激烈的行动。此前美联储威廉姆斯表示，预计美国失业率将在2025年底降至4.5%，劳 动力市场风险已上升，而通胀风险已缓解。特朗普表示下一任美联储主席提名人选即将揭晓，且这名候选人会支 持"大幅"降低利率。在关税局势趋缓的背景下，核心通胀接近目标区间为后续降息做铺垫，就 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍下跌，除上证指数外均有不同幅度下跌。四期指表现分化。 本周海内外有大量经济数据公布，周一公布的国内11月经济数据延续弱势，股指连续两日承 压。周二、周四公布的美国11月就业及通胀数据虽呈现降温，但由于期间政府停摆使得市场 对数据的可信度下降，美联储降息预期仅微幅上升。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周回落。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -0.09 | 0.39 | 4527.0 | | | IH2603 | 0.89 | 0.69 | 3006.4 | | ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 19」 铂钯金市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周铂钯金市场强势运行，其中钯金主力合约两次冲击涨停，由于前期钯金走势较其他贵 金属相对落后，钯金上涨弹性较大，铂金主力合约亦录得一次涨停，钯金2606合约周涨23.30%，铂金 2606合约周涨18.03%。近期铂族金属价格大幅上涨，主要由现货紧缺与套利交易推动。一方面，伦敦 铂金租赁利率快速回升，显示实物供应收紧；钯金ETF持仓持续增加，进一步吸纳流通货源，加剧供需 矛盾。另一方面，较高的期现基差和内外价差激发了套利动机。套利资金为锁定利润而增持现货，推 升现货价格并放大期货价格弹性。铂金在美联储宽松预期、供需结构性赤字格局延续、氢能经济中长 期需求预期扩张的支撑下，中长期或继续支撑铂金价格。钯金在汽车催化剂领域的过度集中化，以及 新能源汽车的持续普及，使其需求端预期走 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 沪铜市场周报 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 供给略增需求韧性，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡偏弱，周线涨跌幅为-0.96%，振幅3.84%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价93180元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国11月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%；美国11月未季调核心CPI年率录得 2.6%，为2021年3月以来新低。美国联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储明年1月份降息的可能性从26.6%上升至28.8%。国 内方面，国家发改委投资司指出，2025年以来投资下行压力加大，接下来要从畅通供需循环、投融资循环等方面采取针对 性措施，着力扩大有效投资。基本面原料端，铜精矿现货加工费指数负值区域运行且小幅下滑，矿紧预期将在较长的时期 持续奏效于铜冶炼端，为铜价提供较强成本支撑。供给方面，冶炼副产品硫酸价格小幅涨价，弥补冶炼厂部分利润损失。 加之，前期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week, coking coal and coke experienced a technical rebound, and the mid - and downstream sectors replenished their stocks after the price decline. On the demand side, the crude steel output will continue to decline, the real estate investment data is poor, and the downstream maintains low procurement, with insufficient overall replenishment willingness. In terms of profit, coking coal gives up some profit to coke, but there is little room for a significant improvement in coke profit. For price trends, the coking coal futures contract 2605 should focus on the support at 1060, and the coke futures contract 2605 price should focus on the support at 1680 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights Summary - **Macro Aspect**: Among 11 sample steel mills in Jiangsu, 6 clearly stated they would implement scrap steel winter storage plans, accounting for about 55%. In 2025, most steel mills planning for winter storage and their planned storage volumes are lower than in 2024, with only 2 mills having the same plan as last year. The China Iron and Steel Association's official said self - discipline and spontaneous production control are important for high - quality industry development [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: Fed Governor Waller said there is a 50 - 100 basis - point interest rate cut space as the job market weakens and inflation is under control [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current pig iron output is 226.55 (-2.65) tons, and the coke inventory is moderately weak. The steel mill inventory has increased this period, and attention should be paid to the steel mill's replenishment rhythm. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract 2605 is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of December 19, the coke futures contract open interest is 36,900 lots, a decrease of 9,739 lots compared to the previous period; the 5 - 1 contract monthly spread is 142.5, a decrease of 10.5 points compared to the previous period; the registered coke warehouse receipt volume is 2,070 lots, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period; the futures main contract screw - coke ratio is 1.95, a decrease of 0.12 points compared to the previous period [11][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 18, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port is 1,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. As of December 19, the coke basis is - 73.5 yuan, a decrease of 162.0 points compared to the previous period [25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Mine and Wash Plant**: This week, the utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.6%, a 1.3% increase compared to the previous period. The daily average raw coal output is 1.927 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons compared to the previous period. The raw coal inventory is 4.789 million tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average clean coal output is 758,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the previous period, and the clean coal inventory is 2.728 million tons, an increase of 175,000 tons compared to the previous period. The utilization rate of 314 independent coal wash plant samples is 37.7%, a 0.5% decrease compared to the previous period; the daily clean coal output is 273,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 3.273 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons compared to the previous period [29]. - **Coking Plant**: This week, the utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 70.50%, a decrease of 1.42%; the daily average coke output is 493,400 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - class coke in Shanxi is 35 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 65 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - class coke is - 23 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - class coke is 66 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel Mill**: This week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills is 2.2655 million tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons compared to last week and 28,600 tons compared to last year. As of December 19, 2025, the steel mill's coke inventory is 633,730 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons, and the available days of coke are 11.72 days, an increase of 0.06 days [37]. - **Inventory**: As of December 19, 2025, the total coke inventory (independent coking plants + 4 major ports + steel mills) is 8.5712 million tons, a decrease of 93,800 tons compared to the previous period and a 1.33% increase compared to the same period last year. The coke inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises is 51,900 tons, an increase of 1,790 tons. The coke inventory of 18 ports is 2.3945 million tons, a decrease of 91,500 tons; among them, the coke inventory of 5 northern ports is 914,000 tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons, the 10 eastern ports is 1.1415 million tons, a decrease of 500 tons, and the 3 southern ports is 339,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons [41][46]. - **Export**: From January to October, the cumulative coke export is 622,000 tons, a 13.90% decrease compared to the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume reaches 108 million tons, a 6.7% increase compared to the same period last year [50]. - **Housing Data**: In October 2025, the housing sales price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities shows a 0.70% month - on - month decline in second - hand residential properties. From January to October 2025, the cumulative new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, a 19.80% year - on - year decrease [53].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 焦煤市场周报 供需偏弱&刚需低采，焦煤预计区间运行 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量192.7万吨，环比增2.9万吨。 2. 314家独立洗煤厂：精煤日产27.3万吨，环比减0.6万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1970.5吨，环比-16.33万吨，同比-7.16%。 4. 仓单：唐山蒙5#精煤报1320，折盘面1100 5. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利16元/吨。 6. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比上周持平，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 7. 需求端铁水产量：日均铁水产量226.55万吨，环比上周减少2.65万吨，同比去年减少2.86万吨。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 行情回顾 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 「 期现市场情况」 持仓 ...