1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is cautiously bearish on precious metals [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous rise of the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, along with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz increasing future inflation expectations and the Fed officials' cautious signals on interest - rate cuts, support the US dollar index and suppress gold and silver prices, causing short - term price declines. If the Treasury yield continues to rise and the US dollar remains strong, gold prices still face a risk of further decline. However, if the interest - rate expectations change or the market's risk - aversion sentiment heats up again, gold prices may rise again [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On March 4, 2026, Shanghai gold futures fell 3.78% to 1144.98 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 1.88% to 21521.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 3.99% to 5099.50 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 7.38% to 82.30 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 99.05 [2] 3.2 Strategy View - The strategy is to be cautiously bearish. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1100 - 1170 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 20900 - 21800 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.3 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 5099.50 US dollars/ounce, down 4.43% from the previous day; the trading volume was 25.97 million lots, up 17.73%; the open interest was 42.02 million lots, up 3.22%; the inventory was 1029 tons, down 0.30% [6] - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 5313.90 US dollars/ounce, up 1.75%; the closing price of the active contract was 1182.00 yuan/gram, down 1.27%; the trading volume was 54.49 million lots, up 24.12% [6] - **SHFE Gold**: The open interest was 29.48 million lots, down 4.85%; the inventory was 105.06 tons, unchanged; the settled funds were 55.76 billion yuan, down 6.06% [6] - **AuT + D**: The trading volume was 81.12 tons, up 33.10%; the open interest was 243.29 tons, up 2.25% [6] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 82.30 US dollars/ounce, down 8.16%; the open interest was 12.55 million lots, down 4.59%; the inventory was 11047 tons, down 0.67% [6] - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 94.62 US dollars/ounce, up 5.16%; the closing price of the active contract was 21645.00 yuan/kilogram, down 11.40%; the trading volume was 191.03 million lots, up 43.74% [6] - **SHFE Silver**: The open interest was 51.39 million lots, down 3.06%; the inventory was 307.48 tons, down 0.63%; the settled funds were 30.032 billion yuan, down 14.11% [6] - **AgT + D**: The trading volume was 504.11 tons, down 38.53%; the open interest was 2979.878 tons, up 0.97% [6] 3.4 ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: The holdings of SPDR US, iShare US, GBS UK, PHAU UK, GOLD UK, and SGBS Switzerland were N/A, 499.61 tons, 30.66 tons, 54.37 tons, 29.81 tons, and 35.29 tons respectively. The holdings of iShare US, GBS UK, PHAU UK, and GOLD UK remained unchanged, and SGBS Switzerland decreased slightly [63] - **Silver ETFs**: The closing price was 74.68 US dollars, down 8.45%. The holdings of SLV US, ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada were N/A, 486.13 tons, 6747.36 tons, and 1583.04 tons respectively. The holdings of ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada remained unchanged [63]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On March 3, 2026, the A-share market showed a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.07%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.57%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 111.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends, and the market was affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, international situations, and weather conditions [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On March 3, the A-share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4122.68 points, down 1.43%; the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 14022.39 points, down 3.07%; and the ChiNext Index closing at 3209.48 points, down 2.57%. The trading volume reached 3.16 trillion yuan, up 111.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 3, closing at 4655.90, a decrease of 72.77 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 3, the weighted index of coke fluctuated widely, closing at 1703.5, up 56.0 from the previous day [2]. - The weighted index of coking coal was strong on March 3, closing at 1147.2 yuan, up 44.1 from the previous day [3]. - Coking profit is average, and daily production has a slight increase. Coke inventory has a slight decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1346 vehicles. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work in coal mines. The production of coking coal mines has decreased significantly in the early stage. The spot auction transactions have gradually increased during the week, and the transaction prices have mainly decreased slightly. The terminal inventory has decreased significantly, and there may be a certain degree of replenishment after the Spring Festival. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased significantly, and the production - end inventory has decreased significantly [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the rise in crude oil prices and abundant spot supply, the US sugar fluctuated widely and closed slightly lower on Monday. Due to the downward adjustment of the spot quotation and the large short - term increase affected by the technical side, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated lower on Tuesday. Affected by short - selling pressure, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward at night. The industry organization ISMA said that as of February, the sugar production in India in the current market year (starting from October 2025) reached 24.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.43% [4]. Rubber - The escalation of the US - Iran dispute led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The market was worried about whether the global economy would decline, and the global capital market declined significantly. Affected by this and the large increase in futures prices recently, long - position liquidation pressured the Shanghai rubber to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. Affected by the concern about the possible global economic recession, the Shanghai rubber continued to oscillate downward at night. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons from the previous period, an increase of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89% [4]. Vegetable Oil and Related Products - The international crude oil market rose strongly due to the war, and the spill - over effect of the oil price increase strongly boosted the vegetable oil market. As of last Thursday, Brazil had harvested 39% of its soybeans, with the harvest progress slower than the same period in previous years. The agency predicted that the soybean production in Brazil in 2025/26 would reach 178 million tons, lower than the previous forecast of 181 million tons due to the yield loss in Rio Grande do Sul caused by drought [5]. - On March 3, the main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2836 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35%. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has risen rapidly, the soybean meal inventory has increased, the downstream enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, so the spot price has continuously declined under pressure. The US soybeans remain at a high level, and the cost side still provides support for soybean meal [5]. Livestock (Pig) - On March 3, the main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The supply of suitable - weight live pigs in March shows a loose trend, and the demand for fat pigs is in the off - season. The risk of holding pigs for sale in the market has increased, which has increased the enthusiasm of the breeding side for capacity reduction. The price - holding mentality of retail farmers and group pig enterprises has loosened, and the slaughter rhythm of some leading pig enterprises has accelerated. The supply capacity of suitable - weight standard pigs and medium - large pigs is sufficient. Coupled with the high inventory of breeding sows in the country, the production capacity base supports sufficient supply. At the same time, the breeding efficiency continues to improve, further amplifying the effective supply. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly. On the demand side, the pork consumption after the festival has entered the annual off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are not smooth, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, the demand - side carrying capacity is weak, and the support for pig prices is insufficient. Overall, the live pig market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Palm Oil - On March 3, the overall trend of oils continued to rise. The palm oil futures gapped up and rose for three consecutive days. By the afternoon close, the main contract of palm oil P2605 closed with a positive line with short upper and lower shadows. The highest price of the day was 9028, the lowest price was 8926, and the closing price was 8994, an increase of 1.08% from the previous trading day. As of February 27, 2026 (Week 9), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas across the country was 786,700 tons, an increase of 80,300 tons from the previous week, an increase of 11.37%; compared with 414,600 tons in the same period last year, it increased by 372,100 tons, an increase of 89.75% [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 102,100 yuan/ton, opened at 103,320, reached a maximum of 103,630, a minimum of 101,270, with a trading volume of 177,900 lots, a position of 198,000 lots, and a settlement price of 102,410 yuan/ton. It opened low and moved lower within the day, oscillating downward. The outer - market London copper and US copper also weakened synchronously, and the inner and outer markets resonated and corrected. The US dollar rebounded, and the funds at the previous high took profits and left the market. Coupled with the downstream's resistance to high prices, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was about 101,725 yuan/ton, with a discount of 375 yuan/ton to the main contract. The inventory of copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly and remained at a high level overall. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of terminal work and the release of orders, the change of inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the disturbance of macro and geopolitical situations to market sentiment [5]. Iron Ore - On March 2, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.67% and a closing price of 753.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments continued to rise this period, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory was at a historical high, and the molten iron output maintained an increasing trend. However, some steel mills were restricted during the Two Sessions, so the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [5]. Asphalt - On March 2, the main contract of asphalt 2604 oscillated and rose, with a gain of 4.69% and a closing price of 3639 yuan. Recently, some refineries in the region plan to resume production, the supply is expected to increase, the inventory pressure has increased, the downstream rigid demand is weak, and the demand recovery is slow. The short - term asphalt price shows an oscillating trend [5][6]. Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 801 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 797, a maximum of 804, and a closing price of 799.5, with a daily reduction of 46 lots. On March 3, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Attention should be paid to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [6]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15,160 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. The cotton inventory increased by 44 lots compared with the previous trading day. The growth of new cotton in Australia is generally good, and most producing areas have entered the late development stage. However, since the area of dry - land crops has decreased compared with previous years, timely rainfall is needed to achieve the expected yield [6]. Steel - On March 3, rb2605 closed at 3074 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3219 yuan/ton. The situation in the Middle East is tense, but the impact on the domestic black - series market is relatively limited. The market is still trading on the expectations of the Two Sessions and the supply - demand structure relationship in the industrial end. As the downstream terminal market gradually resumes work, the rigid - demand replenishment increases, and the market speculation sentiment has heated up. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point and the driving force of policies [6]. Alumina - On March 3, ao2605 closed at 2807 yuan/ton. The ore price has continued to decline, and the cost support for alumina has weakened. Since the beginning of this year, there have been successive production cuts on the alumina supply side, and the pressure of oversupply has been slightly relieved, but the overall oversupply pattern has not changed. At the same time, the total inventory of alumina has continued to accumulate, suppressing the price, and the upward space of the main contract is limited. On the demand side, the market consumption enthusiasm is not high after the festival, the resumption process of alumina enterprises is slow, and some markets are still on holiday. The resumption situation needs to be observed after the Lantern Festival [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 3, al2604 closed at 23,905 yuan/ton. Overseas, attention is continuously paid to the evolution of the situation in the Middle East. The transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, the shipping cost has increased significantly, and the energy facilities in Middle - Eastern countries also have certain safety risks. The market is worried about disturbing the aluminum supply - demand balance, and the risk - aversion sentiment is still relatively strong. In China, the Two Sessions are approaching, and the market is concerned about the subsequent guidance. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the molten aluminum ratio remains at a low level during the year, the backlogged and in - transit goods continue to be transported, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. On the demand side, the performance continues to improve. The receiving of goods in all major downstream consumption areas has improved to a certain extent, and there is a certain mentality of buying on the rise. The downstream continues to resume work, the receiving of goods increases, and the overall trading atmosphere improves [6].

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 4 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货3月3日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.360 | 112.550 | 112.520 | 112.520 | 0.160 | 0.14 | 80 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-03-04 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强运行 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏强 | 中期 | 日内 偏强 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 地缘风险扰动，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着美以向伊朗发动军事袭击，中东地缘风险快速升温，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡， 原油天然气等能源物资无法从中东向外运输，原油溢价或将大幅升温。尽管 OPEC+产油国宣布二季度 开始重新恢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the US and Israel launched a military attack on Iran on February 28, Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to disruptions in oil transportation, with many oil tankers pausing operations and a large number of ships anchoring. Energy - related commodity prices are expected to be affected, with the expected impact order being crude oil > fuel oil > low - sulfur fuel oil > LPG > methanol > asphalt > plastic > polyester > propylene > PP. Silver's price volatility is greater than gold, but gold has better long - term stability. The European shipping line may have a larger increase and a longer - lasting uptrend compared to 2025 [3]. - Morgan Chase warns that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, the storage capacity of seven Middle - Eastern countries can only support production for "no more than 25 days", after which forced production cuts will occur. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and others predict that oil prices will start from $100 [4]. - The small - cycle of the stock index futures is expected to have a repair requirement tomorrow morning. The rebound in the early trading tomorrow is a good opportunity to short [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus - After the US - Israel military attack on Iran, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Dozens of cargo ships are gathered outside the strait, and at least 150 oil tankers are anchored in the high - seas of the Middle - Eastern Gulf across the strait, and at least 100 more are near the UAE and Oman coasts outside the strait [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The small - cycle of stock index futures is expected to have a repair requirement tomorrow morning. The early - morning rebound tomorrow is a good opportunity to short [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold opened higher and fluctuated throughout the day. In the large - scale, it is still regarded as a fluctuating and slightly bullish trend [11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments are maintaining a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long - term, the mining capacity is in a release cycle, and there is still an expectation of a loose supply. On the demand side, steel mills are resuming production after the holiday, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies and market sentiment. Technically, the trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a fluctuating trend [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume is slightly decreasing. In the seasonal off - season, factory inventories are still accumulating. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the holiday. Technically, the recent trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a wide - range fluctuating trend [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Methanol - China imports about 14 million tons of methanol annually, accounting for just over 10% of the total consumption (domestic production is about 92 million tons). About 60% of this 14 million tons of imports come from Iran. Overall, the Iranian supply has a weight of about 50% in the pricing of the domestic market. So, any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic market [20]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The trading sentiment in the pulp spot market is average. The inventory at domestic ports continues to accumulate, and it will take time to digest the post - holiday port inventory. Downstream paper mills are gradually resuming work, and some paper enterprises have issued price increase notices. The local price inversion of offset paper and coated paper is serious. The futures market has shown a range - bound consolidation recently [23].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-3-4 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持 在高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需求整体偏弱，有回升预期。复合肥开 工回升、三聚氰胺开工下降。农业需求逐步转入旺季，综合库存有所累库。外盘价格受地缘因素 等影响继续上升，出口内外价差拉大。2月12日，中国氮肥工业协会发布了《关于市场炒作尿素 指导价的说明》，呼吁市场参与者"不传谣、不信谣"，强调中长期尿素价格应以稳为主。当前 交割品现货1860（+0），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差41，升贴水比例2.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存135万吨（+15.4），偏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market volatility has increased, and investors are advised to control their positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - COMEX gold futures dropped 3.99% to $5099.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 7.38% to $82.30 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract declined 3.78% to 1144.98 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract decreased 5.89% to 21521 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of March 3, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 2.29 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1099.05 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 79.14 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 15981.38 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by April is 14.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 85.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 0.3%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 37.1% [1] - Trump stated that after the 15% tariff deadline, tariffs on different countries will be gradually announced, and tariff agreements with some countries will be raised [1] - Regarding the Iran situation, foreign media reported that Israel has officially mobilized troops for a ground invasion of Lebanon. The US Senate will vote on the "War Powers Resolution" on Wednesday local time to seek to limit Trump's actions against Iran. Iran's ambassador to the United Nations said that Iran has not contacted the US regarding possible peace negotiations. Trump announced to provide insurance for maritime crude oil transportation, and the navy will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz [1] Market Logic - On Tuesday, the US dollar index strengthened for the second consecutive day, rising 0.52% to 99.06 points. The yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond continued to rise, closing at 4.06%. The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise in US Treasury bond yields suppressed precious metals. The ongoing conflicts among the US, Israel, and Iran, the shipping obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz driving up oil prices and increasing the global inflation expectation, the further decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the increasing probability of interest - rate hikes in Europe, and the selling of US stocks leading to the liquidation of precious - metal positions and the take - back of profit - taking all led to the correction of precious metals on Tuesday, with silver showing greater volatility. Continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iran situation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond futures market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, most of the bond futures' main contracts opened slightly higher and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.09%, the 10 - year T2606 fell 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2606 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2606 rose 0.01% [1] - On Tuesday, the Wande A - share index opened slightly higher, fell in the morning and then rebounded, declined unilaterally in the afternoon, closed near the lowest point with a 2.97% drop, and the trading volume was 3.16 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the previous trading day's 3.05 trillion yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 34.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 526 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.7 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.26% (1.31% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45% (1.46% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.71 BP to 1.35%, the 5 - year increased by 0.39 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year increased by 0.46 BP to 1.78%, and the 30 - year increased by 1.31 BP to 2.28% [1] - The central bank's net investment in treasury bond trading in the open market in February was 5 billion yuan [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In January, China's social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan and an increase of 165.4 billion yuan year - on - year. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, an increase of 283.1 billion yuan year - on - year [1] - In January, RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan but a decrease of 420 billion yuan year - on - year [1] - In January, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing compared with the previous month [1] - In January, China's overall inflation level recovered moderately. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month [1] - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a mild economic situation in January [1] - The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level, ensuring that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken" [1] - The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of treasury bond trading in liquidity management, and keep the bank system's liquidity abundant [1]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-04 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利空隐患出现，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 | 每 日 期 | | 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 | | --- | --- | --- | | 货 观 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures contracts 2605 will maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday, March 4, 2026. The short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, while the intraday view is weak and volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak and volatile. The overall view is a weak operation [1]. - **Core Logic**: Due to the military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East over the weekend, geopolitical risks have rapidly increased. Iran has announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in crude oil futures prices. The rising oil prices have led to an increase in inflation expectations, potentially ending the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle and starting an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Additionally, a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. Under these bearish factors, the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a downward trend in the night session on Tuesday, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak and volatile. The overall view is a weak operation [1]. - **Core Logic**: The military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East over the weekend has led to an increase in geopolitical risks. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused crude oil futures prices to continue to strengthen. The rising oil prices have led to an increase in inflation expectations, potentially ending the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle and starting an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Against this background, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2605 contract showed limited upward momentum and narrowed its gains in the night session on Tuesday, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [7].