Core Viewpoint - The White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order to implement a US-Japan trade agreement, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods imported to the US, aimed at reducing the trade deficit and enhancing trade balance [1] Group 1: Tariff Structure - The new tariff framework will impose a 15% baseline tariff on almost all Japanese imports to the US [1] - Specific sectors such as automobiles, aerospace products, generic drugs, and natural resources that cannot be sourced or produced domestically in the US will have differentiated tariff treatments [1] Group 2: Market Access and Agricultural Procurement - Japan will provide breakthrough market access opportunities for US manufacturers in key sectors including aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, automobiles, and industrial products [1] - Under the "minimum market access" rice plan, Japan aims to increase its procurement of US rice by 75% [1] - Japan will also commit to purchasing $8 billion worth of US agricultural products annually, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, and bioethanol [1] Group 3: Automotive and Defense Procurement - Japan will facilitate the sale of US-manufactured passenger vehicles in its market without requiring additional testing, provided they meet US safety certification standards [1] - The Japanese government will also procure US-made commercial aircraft and defense equipment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, companies and shareholders in the Shenzhen market have actively engaged in share buybacks and increases, with a total of 355 plans launched as of September 3, including 251 buyback plans with a maximum repurchase amount of 70.773 billion yuan and 104 increase plans with a maximum increase amount of 31.29 billion yuan, reflecting strong confidence in future development from leading companies like CATL and Midea Group [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Actions - Leading companies such as CATL and Midea Group have taken the lead in share buybacks, with CATL announcing a new buyback plan of 4 billion to 8 billion yuan after completing a previous buyback of 2.71 billion yuan, demonstrating confidence in future growth [1]. - Midea Group has also been active in buybacks, with a previously disclosed plan of 5 billion to 10 billion yuan, of which over 70% is for cancellation, and an additional plan of 1.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for employee stock ownership plans, having repurchased a total of 4.43 billion yuan by the end of August [2]. - Other companies like Weichai Power and Wens Foodstuff have also made notable buyback progress, with Weichai Power repurchasing 596 million yuan and Wens Foodstuff repurchasing 900 million yuan by the end of August [2]. Group 2: Increase Plans - In addition to buybacks, there has been a surge in increase plans, with shareholders showing confidence in long-term investment value through substantial financial commitments [3]. - Qingdao Bank's shareholder plans to increase shares by 233 million to 291 million, while Shanxi Expressway's actual controller plans to increase shares by no less than 30 million yuan and no more than 60 million yuan [3]. - Companies like Changan Automobile and DaDaQian have also disclosed increase plans, with Changan's management planning to increase shares by no less than 5.7 million yuan and DaDaQian's major shareholder planning to increase shares by 50 million to 100 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Overall Market Impact - The overall buyback and increase actions by Shenzhen companies and shareholders play a crucial role in optimizing capital structure and establishing long-term incentive mechanisms, continuously sending positive signals to the market and helping to maintain investment value and enhance shareholder returns [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar**: The international raw sugar market is currently facing a mix of bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, the external sugar price may continue to fluctuate within a range. The domestic sugar market has more bearish factors on the supply side, with the futures price of Zhengzhou sugar showing a short - term weak trend. However, due to the relatively low inventory pressure of sugar - making enterprises and the improvement in trading volume during the peak - season stocking, the downside space for sugar prices is also limited [3]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp**: The pulp industry chain has not changed significantly recently. The supply pressure remains high, and the demand in the finished paper market has yet to improve. Although the recent increase in the overseas broad - leaf pulp offer price and the fact that the coniferous pulp price is below the cost of some enterprises provide certain support, the upward driving force for pulp prices is still weak, and it is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation [4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton**: The international cotton market is in a situation of long - short game. The short - term price of US cotton futures may continue to oscillate at a low level. The domestic cotton market is affected by the news of state reserve sales, and the short - term price may continue to oscillate and consolidate [5][6]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple**: The opening price of early - maturing apples has increased year - on - year, and the poor performance of the high - quality fruit rate has provided support for the futures price. As long as the concerns about the high - quality fruit rate are not falsified, the futures price may continue to be supported [7]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Jujube**: The inventory of jujubes in the spot market has been continuously reduced, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm has improved. The price of high - quality jujubes in the sales area is strong. The futures price of jujubes has shown a high - level correction, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the production area during the key growth stage of sugar - coloring of new - season jujubes [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2510, the recommended strategy is to wait and see or take a short - long approach, with a support range of 7700 - 7800 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce long positions, with a support range of 11000 - 11200 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce short positions, with a support range of 5530 - 5550 and a pressure range of 5630 - 5650. For Pulp 2511, the recommended strategy is to be short - biased within the range, with a support range of 4900 - 5000 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Cotton 2601, the recommended strategy is to return to a wait - and - see state, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14300 - 14400 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In July, China's fresh apple exports were about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was about 464,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.0%. As of August 27, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 339,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,800 tons. According to different statistics, as of August 28, the national cold - storage inventory was 353,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 299,600 tons. Different institutions have different forecasts for the national apple production this year, with one showing a slight decrease and the other showing a slight increase [17]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The mainstream transaction price of apples in the Shandong production area has increased, mainly due to the increased enthusiasm of merchants to purchase cold - storage goods. The price of high - quality goods has risen, while the price of low - quality goods has remained basically stable. The transaction price in the northwest production area of early - maturing Fuji high - quality goods is stable and high. The arrival and shipment in the sales area are stable, and the price is stable [18][19]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The temperature in the main jujube - producing areas in Xinjiang has slightly decreased, and some areas have experienced light rain. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on quality during the sugar - coloring period. The average daily arrival of jujubes in the sales area has decreased. The price of high - quality jujubes is strong, and the price of ordinary jujubes is stable and firm. The inventory in the sample points has decreased [20]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of August 31, 2025, Yunnan's cumulative sugar sales were 2.0823 million tons, with a sales rate of 86.09%. In August, the single - month sugar sales were 130,900 tons, and the industrial inventory was 336,400 tons. As of the end of August, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 5.7563 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.04%. In August, the single - month sugar sales were 260,200 tons, and the industrial inventory was 708,700 tons. The spot market quotation of Guangxi sugar - making enterprises has been slightly reduced [23]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The decline in the domestic spot and futures prices of bleached softwood pulp has significantly suppressed the trading volume of imported bleached softwood pulp in the past week. The inventory of bleached softwood pulp (especially Russian softwood pulp) is high, which has put obvious pressure on the futures price. The price of Canadian and Nordic NBSK has remained at 680 - 700 US dollars per ton. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has been raised twice by suppliers, with a cumulative increase of 40 US dollars per ton, and the current price is 500 - 520 US dollars per ton [4][25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market In July 2025, the yarn production of large - scale enterprises was 1.992 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. From January to July, the yarn production was 13.426 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In July, the cloth production was 2.67 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.96%. From January to July, the cumulative cloth production was 1.825 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. In the 2024/25 season, India's total yarn exports in June were 83,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.76% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, and Cotton 2601 have all declined, while the closing price of Pulp 2511 has increased slightly [27][28]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples has increased month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of jujubes has decreased month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of sugar has remained unchanged month - on - month but decreased year - on - year; the spot price of pulp has remained unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of cotton has increased month - on - month and year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary is provided in the text, only figures are mentioned, so no content is summarized here. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The spreads of Apple 10 - 1, Jujube 9 - 1, Sugar 9 - 1, and Cotton 1 - 5 are all in a state of oscillation, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [48]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary is provided in the text, only figures are mentioned, so no content is summarized here. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipts of apples are 0, with no change month - on - month and year - on - year; the warehouse receipts of jujubes are 10,037, a month - on - month decrease of 52 and a year - on - year increase of 2,472; the warehouse receipts of sugar are 12,782, a month - on - month decrease of 420 and a year - on - year decrease of 1,538; the warehouse receipts of pulp are 247,227, a month - on - month decrease of 40 and a year - on - year decrease of 226,119; the warehouse receipts of cotton are 5,996, a month - on - month decrease of 135 and a year - on - year decrease of 2,786 [75]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary is provided in the text, only figures are mentioned, so no content is summarized here.

Core Points - The article discusses the concept of the "industrious revolution" in Japan during the Edo period, contrasting it with the industrial revolution in Western countries [3][10][15] - It highlights the significant role of human labor in agricultural development, replacing animal power and leading to increased productivity [2][3][11] - The article emphasizes the cultural shift towards valuing hard work and its implications for Japan's later industrialization [12][15] Group 1: Agricultural Development - During the Edo period, agricultural technology advancements relied more on human labor than on capital investment in livestock [2][6] - Farmers increased their labor input, leading to higher land utilization rates and agricultural productivity [2][9] - The expansion of arable land was achieved through the increased labor of farmers and their families, rather than through capital investment in livestock [7][9] Group 2: Cultural Shift - The concept of hard work became a virtue during the Edo period, contrasting with previous societal views on labor [12][13] - This cultural shift was not propagated through religious institutions but rather through familial and social relationships [14] - The increased labor intensity among farmers led to improvements in living standards, knowledge, and cultural activities [15] Group 3: Implications for Industrialization - The industrious qualities developed during the Edo period were crucial for Japan's later industrialization, especially given the lack of natural resources [15] - The article suggests that the hardworking nature of the Japanese people, cultivated over centuries, played a significant role in the success of Japan's industrial revolution [15][16]

Core Points - The recent high-level trade talks between the US and Japan were unexpectedly canceled, highlighting a significant diplomatic tension over sensitive agricultural issues, particularly regarding rice imports [1][3] - The US government's push for Japan to purchase American rice has been perceived as an infringement on Japan's domestic policies and cultural values, leading to a strong backlash from Japanese officials [3][4] - Japan's decision to cancel the visit signals a shift towards a more assertive stance in defending its national interests against perceived US unilateralism [4][6] Trade Negotiations - The breakdown of the trade talks is rooted in Japan's sensitivity to rice, which is not just an agricultural product but also a cultural and political symbol [3] - The US has employed aggressive negotiation tactics, including the introduction of a "reciprocal tariff" policy, which has left Japan in a defensive position [3][6] - Despite the cancellation of high-level talks, working-level discussions between the two countries will continue, indicating Japan's desire to maintain bilateral relations while reassessing its strategy [4][7] Geopolitical Context - The US's military deployment plans in Japan, including the introduction of the "Aegis" missile system, have raised concerns about Japan's geopolitical positioning and its implications for regional stability [6] - The US's actions reflect a broader "America First" strategy, prioritizing its own interests over those of its allies, which complicates Japan's efforts to assert its own national interests [6][7] - The ongoing trade dispute over rice has become a litmus test for the strength and dynamics of the US-Japan alliance, with potential for further unexpected developments in future negotiations [7]

Core Insights - The report from the Pew Research Center indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with over 1.2 million immigrant workers disappearing from the job market between January and July 2020, closely linked to the strict immigration policies of the Trump administration [1][3][5] Labor Market Impact - Immigrant workers, including those with legal work visas and undocumented individuals, play an essential role in various key industries in the U.S. [3] - Immigrants account for approximately 20% of the U.S. labor market, with significant representation in specific sectors: 45% in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and livestock; 30% in construction; and 24% in the service industry [3][5] Employment Contribution - Over the past decade, immigrants have contributed to more than 50% of new job creation in the U.S. However, the recent halt in immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border has caused a "systemic shock" to the country's job creation capacity [5][6] Sector-Specific Challenges - The agricultural sector is facing a labor shortage crisis due to increased immigration enforcement, leading to significant losses, such as tons of ripe fruit left unharvested in Florida [5][6] - The construction industry is experiencing job losses in nearly 50% of metropolitan areas, with California being particularly affected, losing 7,200 jobs in the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area and 6,200 in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area [5][6] Future Concerns - The healthcare sector may become the next area severely impacted, as 43% of home care workers are immigrants, raising concerns about the availability of caregivers for hospitals and nursing homes [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating personal agricultural endeavors with national and societal responsibilities, highlighting the role of new farmers in sustainable development and rural revitalization [9][15][16]. Group 1: Event Participation - A representative of new farmers attended the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War [2][3]. - The event featured a strong emotional atmosphere, particularly during the aerial flag-guarding formations and the tank parade [5][6][7]. Group 2: Personal Commitment to Agriculture - The representative expresses a commitment to agricultural entrepreneurship that transcends personal gain, linking personal values with national pride [10][11]. - The experience of working in rural areas for 17 years has shaped a deep understanding of the agricultural sector and its challenges [19]. Group 3: Vision for Agriculture - The focus is on addressing sustainable agricultural development, rural revitalization, and the common prosperity of farmers [15][16]. - There is a call for the integration of research and practice, particularly in social sciences, to enhance theoretical frameworks that guide practical applications [16][18]. - The representative aims to internationalize China's agricultural practices, promoting traditional values and ecological agriculture as a means of fostering peace [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 17 products experiencing price increases, 28 seeing declines, and 5 remaining stable in late August 2025 compared to mid-August 2025 [1]. Price Changes Summary 1. Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) decreased by 42.8 yuan to 3218.2 yuan, a drop of 1.3% - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) fell by 48.9 yuan to 3356.5 yuan, down 1.4% - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) decreased by 15.5 yuan to 3525.8 yuan, a decline of 0.4% - Hot-rolled ordinary plate (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) dropped by 37.4 yuan to 3444.9 yuan, down 1.1% - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) fell by 10.0 yuan to 4162.5 yuan, a decrease of 0.2% - Angle steel (5) decreased by 17.1 yuan to 3531.4 yuan, down 0.5% [3]. 2. Non-Ferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) increased by 59.6 yuan to 79237.1 yuan, up 0.1% - Aluminum ingot (A00) rose by 107.6 yuan to 20741.4 yuan, an increase of 0.5% - Lead ingot (1) increased by 38.8 yuan to 16735.7 yuan, up 0.2% - Zinc ingot (0) decreased by 201.3 yuan to 22200.0 yuan, down 0.9% [3]. 3. Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) fell by 1.2 yuan to 717.2 yuan, a decrease of 0.2% - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) increased by 26.4 yuan to 896.1 yuan, up 3.0% - Methanol (first grade) decreased by 37.2 yuan to 2228.8 yuan, down 1.6% - Pure benzene (industrial grade) fell by 90.7 yuan to 6047.6 yuan, down 1.5% - Styrene (first grade) decreased by 7.7 yuan to 7277.9 yuan, down 0.1% - Polyethylene (LLDPE) increased by 24.9 yuan to 7467.6 yuan, up 0.3% - Polypropylene (fiber grade) decreased by 56.1 yuan to 6953.1 yuan, down 0.8% - Polyvinyl chloride (SG5) fell by 67.0 yuan to 4809.5 yuan, down 1.4% - Styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) increased by 118.4 yuan to 11697.6 yuan, up 1.0% - Polyester filament (POY150D/48F) rose by 108.9 yuan to 6871.4 yuan, up 1.6% [3]. 4. Oil and Natural Gas - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 90.7 yuan to 3951.6 yuan, down 2.2% - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) increased by 67.0 yuan to 4433.8 yuan, up 1.5% - Gasoline (95 National VI) fell by 40.2 yuan to 8469.3 yuan, down 0.5% - Gasoline (92 National VI) decreased by 43.8 yuan to 8192.8 yuan, down 0.5% - Diesel (0 National VI) fell by 37.5 yuan to 7047.8 yuan, down 0.5% - Paraffin (58 half) remained unchanged at 7672.5 yuan [3]. 5. Coal - Anthracite (washed lump) decreased by 17.0 yuan to 853.0 yuan, down 2.0% - Common mixed coal (4500 kcal) fell by 7.1 yuan to 557.4 yuan, down 1.3% - Shanxi large mixed coal (5000 kcal) decreased by 4.2 yuan to 625.3 yuan, down 0.7% - Shanxi superior mixed coal (5500 kcal) increased by 6.6 yuan to 701.7 yuan, up 0.9% - Datong mixed coal (5800 kcal) rose by 6.3 yuan to 739.7 yuan, up 0.9% - Coking coal (main coking coal) remained unchanged at 1425.0 yuan - Coke (quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke) increased by 61.6 yuan to 1439.3 yuan, up 4.5% [3]. 6. Non-Metallic Building Materials - Ordinary Portland cement (P.O 42.5 bagged) decreased by 2.6 yuan to 346.0 yuan, down 0.7% - Ordinary Portland cement (P.O 42.5 bulk) increased by 0.4 yuan to 272.8 yuan, up 0.1% - Float glass (4.8/5mm) fell by 25.4 yuan to 1190.8 yuan, down 2.1% [3]. 7. Agricultural Products - Rice (glutinous rice) remained unchanged at 4037.0 yuan - Wheat (national standard grade three) decreased by 4.9 yuan to 2420.7 yuan, down 0.2% - Corn (yellow corn grade two) fell by 16.8 yuan to 2300.9 yuan, down 0.7% - Cotton (lint, white cotton grade three) increased by 141.9 yuan to 14756.3 yuan, up 1.0% - Live pigs (external three yuan) decreased by 0.1 yuan to 13.7 yuan per kilogram, down 0.7% - Soybeans (yellow soybeans) fell by 20.4 yuan to 4422.7 yuan, down 0.5% - Soybean meal (crude protein content ≥43%) increased by 1.8 yuan to 3051.1 yuan, up 0.1% - Peanuts (oil peanuts) decreased by 2.4 yuan to 7564.3 yuan, unchanged [4]. 8. Agricultural Production Materials - Urea (medium and small particles) decreased by 6.3 yuan to 1759.9 yuan, down 0.4% - Compound fertilizer (potassium sulfate compound fertilizer, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium content 45%) remained unchanged at 3180.0 yuan - Pesticides (glyphosate, 95% raw material) increased by 110.7 yuan to 27085.7 yuan, up 0.4% [4]. 9. Forest Products - Natural rubber (standard rubber SCRWF) increased by 128.0 yuan to 14790.5 yuan, up 0.9% - Pulp (imported needle leaf pulp) decreased by 90.3 yuan to 5677.6 yuan, down 1.6% - Corrugated paper (AA grade 120g) increased by 63.8 yuan to 2704.5 yuan, up 2.4% [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Global risk appetite has increased due to multiple Federal Reserve officials signaling potential interest rate cuts, while in China, although there are signs of improvement in the manufacturing PMI, it has remained below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. Market sentiment is divided, with a focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations [2]. - Different commodity sectors show various trends. Metals may have short - term fluctuations, energy chemicals are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and agricultural products are influenced by factors such as harvest seasons and trade policies. 3. Summary by Category Macro - finance - Overseas: Multiple Federal Reserve officials are paving the way for interest rate cuts. The Beige Book shows that economic activity is basically flat, the number of job openings in the US has unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year, indicating a slowdown in the job market, and the US dollar index has weakened [2]. - Domestic: China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Market sentiment has cooled, and risk appetite has decreased [2]. - Asset Recommendations: Stock indices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position approach; treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; different commodity sectors have different short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Stock Indices - The domestic stock market has declined significantly, dragged down by sectors such as military, small metals, and securities. The short - term upward macro - driving force has weakened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious wait - and - see is recommended [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak on Wednesday. Real - world demand has weakened, inventories have accumulated, and although there is short - term supply reduction due to production restrictions, the probability of steel mill复产 next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Ore demand has decreased, but steel mills are likely to resume production next week. The supply of iron ore has increased this week, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production in different regions has different trends, and the prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight slowdown in the contraction rate. Domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally, but a September Fed interest rate cut may briefly boost copper prices [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, aluminum prices rose and then fell. The inventory has increased, and the medium - term upward space is limited. In the short term, it is expected to remain volatile [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is weak. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. Supply is expected to ease, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upward space [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell on Wednesday. It is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation, with a short - term short and long - term long view [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell on Wednesday. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Wednesday. It is expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ may consider further production increases, and the price will continue to be priced between supply surplus and geopolitical supply risks. The spot market has slightly recovered in the short term, and the futures market is waiting for long - term bearish signals [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market fluctuates following the oil price. The cost - driven logic exists in the short term. Attention should be paid to the extent of its follow - up increase with the oil price in the later stage [14]. - **PX**: The price of PX is generally weak, supported only by maintenance plans. It is expected to remain volatile and wait for changes in PTA devices [14]. - **PTA**: The price is affected by downstream start - up recovery and upstream costs. It is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to overseas device problems, port inventory has decreased significantly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to downstream start - up recovery and crude oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has rebounded slightly. The follow - up upward space may be limited, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure is prominent, but the fundamentals show marginal improvement signs. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **PP**: The supply has reached a new high, and demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **LLDPE**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent currently. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans has weakened. The weekly crop growth report shows changes in the excellent - good rate, pod - setting rate, and defoliation rate. The export inspection volume has also been reported [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The price of CBOT soybeans may be under pressure, and the risk preference of protein meals may decrease. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [19]. - **Oils**: The price of Malaysian palm oil futures has fallen. The inventory in August is expected to increase continuously. Domestic palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19]. - **Corn**: New - season corn has been slightly listed in Northeast China, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The price in North China is stable, and the futures market has rebounded [20]. - **Pigs**: The supply and demand of pigs will both increase in September. The pig price is expected to show a weakly fluctuating trend [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The labor market in the US is showing signs of weakness, with the number of job openings in July lower than expected, which has led to an increase in market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar index. - The A - share market had a significant correction on September 3, and due to the possible phased withdrawal of funds, it is recommended to shift from a unilateral long - strategy to a hedging strategy. - The bond market showed a relatively strong performance at the beginning of September, but the upside space is limited, and long - position holders are advised to hold but be cautious about chasing the market higher. - The US soybean harvest is basically certain this year, but concerns about US soybean exports have resurfaced due to the stagnant Chinese purchases. - OPEC + is considering increasing production again, which has led to concerns in the market and a significant drop in oil prices. - The container shipping market still faces significant over - capacity pressure, and the downward trend of freight rates remains unchanged. [1][2][3][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed officials' statements show that the labor market has a downward risk, and the decline in job openings in July has strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Gold prices rose to a record high and then narrowed their gains. It is recommended to wait for the US non - farm payrolls report in August, as gold price fluctuations will increase. [13][15][16] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Fed Governor Waller supports starting the rate - cut cycle in two weeks. The number of job openings in the US in July was lower than expected, indicating a weakening labor market, which led to a decline in the US dollar index. It is recommended that the US dollar index will decline in the short term. [17][18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer spending is flat or declining, and prices are rising in various regions. The decline in job openings has made the Fed's case for a rate cut in September more compelling. Under the expectation of a rate cut, the US stock market is expected to remain volatile and strong. [20][22][23] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Multiple provinces have raised the minimum wage standard this year. The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting. The A - share market had a significant correction on September 3, and it is recommended to shift from a unilateral long - strategy to a hedging strategy. [24][26][27] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The stock index has been adjusting continuously, and the bond market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended that long - position holders continue to hold but not chase the market higher after the price increase. [28][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Allendale predicts that the US soybean yield per acre in 2025 will be 53.28 bushels, and the US soybean harvest is basically certain this year. However, Chinese purchases of US soybeans have remained stagnant, and concerns about US soybean exports have resurfaced. It is recommended to continue to monitor the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the development of Sino - US relations. [30][32][33] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Market institutions generally expect that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will continue to accumulate in August. The main variable lies in domestic consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the final MPOB data. [34] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - More than 4,500 plots of land across the country plan to use special bond funds for land acquisition. The preliminary statistics show that the retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 3% year - on - year in August. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the near future. [35][36][37] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory and operating rate of starch enterprises have both declined. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the difference between futures and rice prices remains low. It is expected that the further weakening space is limited. [38][39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory at the northern ports has continued to decline and is lower than that in 2023. However, due to the different inventory distribution structure in the industrial chain, it is not a seller - favorable market. It is recommended to pay attention to new short - selling opportunities on rallies. [39][40] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Domestic sugar production area sales data in August are bearish. Affected by Brazil's strong production and supply, ICE raw sugar remains weak. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips around the expected cost of new sugar in the next season. [44][45] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports was weakly stable on September 3. After the end of the environmental protection impact, there may be pressure on upstream enterprises to sell off their goods, but considering the expected anti - involution policy, the overall coal price is expected to have support around 750 yuan. [46] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The sales of new energy vehicles in August showed a significant month - on - month increase. After the end of the parade, northern steel mills are expected to resume production, and short - term iron ore prices are expected to be strong, but if the demand continues to weaken, the price may decline after a short - term stabilization. [47] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei market has slightly declined. The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal. It is recommended to wait and see and not blindly chase the market higher, and focus on the weather in the producing areas and subsequent on - the - spot research. [48][49] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The average weight of pigs for slaughter continues to decline. The short - term fundamentals may lack a strong driving force, and it is recommended to take a short - term oscillatory view and continue to hold the long - term reverse spread structure. [50][51] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - India's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly in the first half of 2025. The polysilicon spot price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The component price is expected to rise, but the terminal demand may decline. It is recommended to consider the cost - performance of betting on subsequent policies when the futures price falls below the spot price. [52][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The market share of granular silicon of GCL Technology reached 24.32% in the first half of the year. The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is slower than expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the resumption progress and look for trading opportunities in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. [56][57][58] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a weak trend, and there are rumors of Russian lead imports in the domestic market. The supply of recycled lead may tighten in September, and the demand may improve marginally. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of long - domestic and short - overseas arbitrage. [59] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market shows a short - term strengthening trend, which drives the Shanghai zinc market to be relatively strong. The global visible inventory has been declining, and the domestic social inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunity, and maintain the positive spread arbitrage idea before the overseas inventory bottoms out. [60] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Chuanneng Power's lithium salt project has successfully produced battery - grade lithium carbonate products. The export of Chilean lithium carbonate decreased by 19.2% month - on - month in August. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the inventory reduction cycle and the strengthening of the basis, as well as the positive spread arbitrage opportunity. [61][63] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased. There are uncertainties in the supply side due to large - scale demonstrations in Jakarta. The price of nickel ore is unexpectedly firm, and the price of nickel iron is expected to be strong in the future. It is recommended to lay out long positions at the lower end of the range. [64][65][66] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Some PDH and PP devices have maintenance plans. The price of the Panama Canal's new lock auction has risen. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to OPEC +'s decision on production increase this weekend. [67][68][69] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude oil inventory in the US increased slightly. OPEC + is considering increasing production again, which may put pressure on oil prices. Oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak. [70][71][72] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises increased slightly. The supply pressure is expected to continue, and the demand is currently weak. Although the agricultural demand is expected to improve marginally in the autumn, the market sentiment is cautious, and attention should be paid to the downward risk after the export game fades. [73][74] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price continued to decline. The domestic PX load changed little, and the overseas PX load increased marginally. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage opportunity. [75][76] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price declined, and the demand needs further observation. The supply side has more maintenance recently, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory and weak adjustment. [77][78][79] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene production enterprises increased. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure may slow down marginally, but the weak expectation in Q4 and the potential over - inventory problem will still suppress the valuation of the pure benzene - styrene industry chain. [80][82] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable, with sufficient supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. [83][84][85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was mainly stable, with only a few prices rising slightly. The pulp market is expected to be in a weak oscillatory trend. [86][87] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder was stable with a slight decline, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The fundamentals of PVC are under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited. [88][89] 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories were mostly stable, with partial minor adjustments. Some large factories' devices have changed, and there are still new production capacity plans in the fourth quarter. The downstream demand is gradually moving into the off - season. [90][91] 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in the Shahe area was generally weak, with the futures price oscillating. The supply and demand situation is weak and stable, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances. [92][93] 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was stable. The market sentiment was weak, and the demand has not improved substantially. It is recommended to operate cautiously on the long - short side and focus on the arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price difference widens. [94][95] 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The EU is considering postponing the implementation of the marine fuel tax for 10 years. The container shipping market still faces significant over - capacity pressure, and the downward trend of freight rates remains unchanged. It is recommended to take an oscillatory view in the short term and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the emotional increase in October and the long - buying value after the decline in December. [96][97]