Group 1 - The core of the recent A-share market rally is driven by a combination of policy expectations, industry trends, capital flow, and market sentiment, indicating a multi-dimensional resonance [2][3] - The influx of capital is evident, with significant net inflows from northbound funds and daily trading volumes increasing from 1.7 trillion yuan to over 3 trillion yuan, creating a positive feedback loop in the market [2][3] - Institutional investors are adopting a dual strategy of offensive and defensive positions, focusing on sectors like AI and cyclical industries while also ensuring safety margins in their portfolios [5][6][7] Group 2 - The market outlook remains optimistic as institutions expect the spring rally to continue, with a focus on high-growth areas such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][9] - Personal investors are advised to rely on professional management, focus on long-term trends, and utilize standardized investment tools like ETFs to mitigate selection difficulties [9][10] - The current market environment emphasizes the importance of maintaining investment discipline and avoiding emotional trading, with a call for investors to set clear profit and loss thresholds [9][10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a significant bull run, with prices rising and profits expected to increase substantially [3][7]. - Non-ferrous metal prices have not peaked yet, indicating that as long as product prices remain high or continue to rise, the non-ferrous ETF (159876) will likely continue to appreciate [7]. - Domestic non-ferrous companies are undergoing a value reassessment due to the Belt and Road Initiative, with many companies acquiring mines abroad that are now coming into production, leading to increased profits and a reassessment of asset values [8]. Group 2 - The non-ferrous ETF (159876) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index, which focuses on leading companies in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the top ten companies accounting for approximately 48% of the index [8]. - The index covers a wide range of industries, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, making it suitable for retail investors looking for comprehensive exposure to all metal categories [9]. - The non-ferrous ETF (159876) and its associated off-market fund (017141) are considered optimal choices for investing in the super cycle of non-ferrous metals [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metal and mining industry, indicating a favorable outlook for investment opportunities [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in industrial metals driven by "Monroeism" sentiment, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a trend of copper hoarding in the U.S. [2][5]. - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing a recovery phase, with a focus on the resilience of gold stocks amid geopolitical tensions and fluctuating interest rate expectations [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sector allocation, particularly in copper and aluminum, as they are expected to benefit from macroeconomic trends and supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold stocks are showing signs of recovery, with a notable shift from a previous stagnation in performance relative to gold prices. The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold prices due to ongoing recession fears and weak inflation and employment data [4]. - Silver is expected to outperform due to macroeconomic conditions and a favorable trading structure, with a recommendation to focus on silver stocks for their potential elasticity [4]. Industrial Metals - The report notes a strong performance in copper and aluminum, with copper prices rising by 4.3% and aluminum by 3.8% during the week. This is attributed to increased inventories and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop [5][24]. - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors are well-positioned for a spring rally, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and supply disruptions due to geopolitical factors [5][6]. Energy and Strategic Metals - The report identifies lithium as a key area for investment, with expectations of a supply-demand turning point and strong pricing trends. The strategic value of rare earths and tungsten is also highlighted, particularly in light of export controls and geopolitical tensions [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of positioning in cobalt and nickel, with expectations of long-term price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand [6].

（原标题：利好！上市公司，密集公告！） 今日关注 近90家A股上市公司发布2025年年度业绩预告 17家净利同比预增上限超100% 两部门：4月1日起 取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税 证监会较大幅度提高证券期货违法行为"吹哨人"奖励 最高奖励100万元 重要的消息有哪些 1.全国商务工作会议：加快培育服务消费新增长点 优化消费品以旧换新政策实施 全国商务工作会议1月10日至11日在京召开。会议指出，2026年全国商务系统要重点做好八个方面工作：一是深入实施提振消费专项行动，打 造"购在中国"品牌。加快培育服务消费新增长点，释放服务消费潜力。优化消费品以旧换新政策实施，推动商品消费扩容升级。打造国际化消费 环境。发展数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费，激发下沉市场消费活力。二是健全现代市场和流通体系，推进全国统一大市场建设。加强制度保 障，优化设施载体，推动零售业创新发展，完善现代商贸流通体系，深入推进试点城市建设。推进内外贸一体化。三是推动贸易创新发展，打 响"出口中国"品牌。优化升级货物贸易，大力发展服务贸易，鼓励服务出口，创新发展数字贸易、绿色贸易，促进贸易投资一体化。四是塑造吸 引外资新优势，擦亮"投资中国"品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent bullish trend in the A-share market, highlighting a significant increase in trading activity and investor sentiment, particularly in the context of a "spring market rally" that has historical precedence [10][21]. Market Performance - As of January 7, the margin trading balance in the A-share market reached 26,047 billion yuan, marking a historic high [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a rare "16 consecutive days of gains," setting a record for the longest winning streak in its history [6][21]. - From early December to January 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose approximately 5.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by about 7.41% and 7.58%, respectively [8]. Investor Behavior - There is a noticeable increase in discussions about stocks among the public, indicating heightened interest in the market [5]. - The influx of new investors is evident, with 2.5967 million new accounts opened in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.55% [8]. Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive signs, with December 2025 recording the best performance of the year [11]. - The CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a return to positive growth [11]. Sector Performance - In 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector led the industry with a remarkable annual increase of 94.73%, while the food and beverage sector saw a decline of 9.69% [9]. - The aerospace equipment sector experienced a significant rise of approximately 146%, with many commercial space stocks seeing gains exceeding 100% [9]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current market rally may signal a new phase for the stock market, with expectations for continued strength in technology sectors and a gradual recovery in traditional industries [20][22]. - The anticipated "spring market" may extend into 2026, with a focus on technology innovation and consumption recovery as key investment themes [22][23]. - The article emphasizes the importance of patience and strategic investment in quality stocks, particularly as regulatory measures against financial misconduct are expected to tighten [27].

人民财讯1月12日电，银河证券指出，关注"两条主线+两条辅助线"。主线一，全球百年未遇之大变局加 速演进，国内经济底层逻辑转向新质生产力。春季躁动行情中，科技创新与成长板块轮动上行机会较 大，人工智能、具身智能、新能源、可控核聚变、量子科技、航空航天等"十五五"重点领域值得关注。 主线二，反内卷政策温和推进，供需结构优化叠加价格回升预期带动下，制造业、资源板块盈利修复路 径清晰，重点关注有色金属、基础化工、电力设备等行业。辅助线一，2026年消费品以旧换新政策延 续，扩大内需政策导向下消费板块迎来布局窗口。辅助线二，出海趋势将带动企业盈利空间进一步打 开。 ...

中信建投（601066）研报称，近期铜铝代表的有色，年底走势非常强劲，定价关键战略资源安全以及美 国超预期货币宽松。有色行情本质是定价全球新旧秩序更替，所以铜必将接力金银，铜的行情仍未结 束。13000美元并非本轮铜价终点，看好2026年铜价赔率。 NO.3信达证券（601059）：军工行业催化较多 信达证券研报指出，A股行情的基础依然坚实，年度上存在盈利改善和资金流入共振的可能性。战略 上，该机构认为春节前流动性环境大概率较好，市场可能继续偏强，1月可能会有一些波动。未来1年市 场短期的波动可能来自监管政策和供给放量速度。需要关注监管政策变化的情况，同时，如果股权融资 规模放量速度很快，股市供需格局再次转弱，那么市场也存在波动加大的可能。板块方面，科技板块在 春季行情中通常有明显的超额收益，行情可能围绕产业催化出现扩散。周期板块也是春季行情中的弹性 品种，政策和盈利均有预期。有色金属、储能等行业供需格局较好，价格持续上行。军工行业产业催化 较多，业绩空窗期主题活跃的阶段容易表现强。金融板块中，非银的弹性有望逐步增加。 ｜2026年1月12日星期一｜ NO.1华西证券：把握做多窗口牛市行情或将继续推进 华西证 ...

| 能源化工 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX WTI原 | | | | 59.61 | 63.85 | 57.81 | | +0.49 +0.83% +0.51 +0.81% -0.28 -0.48% | | | | INE原油 | | | | 437.7 | 3038 | 3.256 | | +11.9 +2.79% +40 +1.33% +0.087 +2.75% | | | 消息面上，全球地缘政治风险继续升温。 俄乌方面，据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间1月12日凌晨，乌克兰首都基辅响起强烈爆炸声。 此前，俄罗斯国防部11日通报称，过去一天，俄军对乌军工企业等目标实施了打击。乌克兰武 装部队总参谋部同一天通报称，对里海海域三座俄罗斯石油钻井平台实施了打击。 1月12日早盘，贵金属集体拉升。截至发稿， 现货黄金升至4550美元大关，再创历史新高；现货 白银涨幅扩大至2.79%。 现货铂金涨近3%，突破2320.00美元/盎司关口，最新报2327.80美元/盎 司。 | 国际贵金属 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations, but the labor market maintained resilience. The market's risk appetite remained high, and there is a high probability of a pause in interest rate cuts in January [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points, hitting a 10 - year high. Despite regulatory intentions to cool the market, the stock market showed strong momentum, and there is still upward momentum in the short term [2]. - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher on Friday. The US non - farm payroll data in December was mixed, and the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts changed little. Geopolitical risks are favorable for precious metals, but the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index is not yet over [3]. - Indian sugar mills have signed contracts to export about 180,000 tons of sugar this season. Due to domestic price adjustments and the weakening of the rupee, the actual total export volume is expected to be difficult to reach the official quota [4]. - After the potential merger of Rio Tinto and Glencore, they will dominate the global copper supply. The macro - optimistic sentiment has returned, pushing up copper prices, but the short - term fundamentals are relatively weak, which may limit the increase [5]. - The number of US oil rigs has decreased, and oil prices have maintained a rebound trend. Concerns about Iranian supply have led to an increase in risk premiums [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is discussing response plans for Iran. Trump will hear a report on Iran - related response plans on Tuesday [11]. - The US added 50,000 non - farm jobs in December 2025, lower than the expected 65,000. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, and hourly wages rose. The gold price was strong on Friday. The non - farm data was mixed, and the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts changed little. Geopolitical risks made precious metals stronger, and short - term market volatility increased [12]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the callback risk of precious metals in the short term [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump threatened Cuba to reach an agreement with the US quickly [14]. - Trump is considering multiple options to interfere in Iran, including sending a carrier strike group and launching cyber and information warfare [15]. - The non - farm data in December 2025 was below expectations. The market risk appetite rebounded, and the US dollar continued to fluctuate. The labor market situation is conducive to the rise of market risk appetite, and the US dollar will maintain a short - term oscillatory trend [17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will oscillate in the short term [19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump is considering multiple options to interfere in Iran [20]. - The US consumer confidence index in January reached a four - month high, and inflation expectations were relatively stable [21]. - The US added only 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, lower than expected. Although geopolitical risks are rising, they have not affected the risk appetite of the US stock market. The economic data is mixed, and the expectation of interest rate cuts remains restrained. It is expected that the US stock market will still operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner, but market volatility will increase [22]. - Investment advice: Expect the US stock market to experience increased volatility but maintain a bullish view [23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points, hitting a 10 - year high. The A - share market had heavy trading volume on Friday [24]. - The State Council deployed fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand. Although there are regulatory intentions to cool the market, the stock market is strong, and there is still upward momentum in the short term. Whether the regulatory authorities will introduce more powerful cooling measures is an important indicator [25]. - Investment advice: The long - holding strategy for stock indices is still dominant, and each index should be evenly allocated [26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 9, with a net investment of 34 billion yuan [27]. - The inflation data in December slightly exceeded market expectations. Domestic policies are actively addressing the supply - demand gap, and inflation is expected to rise. In an environment of rising inflation, the bond market is generally weak. It is not advisable to chase the high price, and short - selling hedging strategies can be considered [29]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when chasing the high price; consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on January 9. The Indonesian government plans to cut coal production by about 17.2% in 2026. The supply tightening expectation makes miners reluctant to lower prices. However, the daily consumption is not good, and it is expected that the coal price will remain in a low - level oscillatory state in January [31]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory state in January, and a continuous rebound is unlikely [32]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto and Glencore are in preliminary discussions about a potential merger [33]. - In January, the downstream steel mills' demand for raw material replenishment has increased. It is expected that the molten iron output will increase by 10,000 - 20,000 tons per week in the next two weeks [33]. - Investment advice: The raw materials are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillatory state before the Spring Festival. Pay attention to policy changes. The inventory of finished products is at a moderate level, which restricts the upward space [34]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills has rebounded to 2.295 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate have increased, while the profit rate has decreased [35]. - In 2025, China's new ship orders were 1,421, and the sales volume of excavators was 235,300. After the New Year's Day, the five major varieties of steel products began to accumulate inventory. The demand for rebar has decreased seasonally, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has remained resilient, but the inventory pressure is relatively high. The steel price trend is not clear in the short term [38]. - Investment advice: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices in the short term [39]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 10.3 million tons and may decrease to 10 million tons next year. As of January 7, Thailand's sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease [40]. - Indian sugar mills have signed contracts to export about 180,000 tons of sugar this season. Due to price and exchange - rate factors, some sugar mills are exporting at a loss. It is expected that India's actual sugar export volume will be difficult to reach the official quota. The upside of the external market is limited [42]. - Investment advice: In Guangxi, the sugar - pressing season is in full swing, and the new sugar supply is increasing. The upside of the futures market is limited. Pay attention to the actual stocking demand before the Spring Festival [43]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Vietnam's textile and clothing exports increased by 5.6% in 2025, but slightly missed the target [44]. - As of January 8, the national cotton processing rate was 94.5%, and the sales rate was 55.6%. The US cotton export signing rate is still lagging. It is expected that the external market will remain in a low - level oscillatory state in the short term [45]. - Investment advice: Xinjiang's cotton - ginning factories are reluctant to sell at low prices. The downstream textile enterprises' demand for raw materials provides support for cotton prices, but the subsequent restocking demand is not strong. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate before the Spring Festival, with limited downside. The long - term outlook remains bullish [47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the second week of 2026, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in the third week is 2.082 million tons [48]. - The oil market continued to oscillate, and palm oil rebounded slightly. The market is waiting for the MPOB report. The situation of the China - Canada talks is uncertain [48]. - Investment advice: The palm oil price is expected to continue an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. Pay attention to the January high - frequency data and Indonesia's palm oil export tax increase news [49]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In the second week of 2026, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in the third week is 2.082 million tons. An auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans will be held on January 13 [50]. - The soybean meal futures price rose first and then fell. Pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report and quarterly inventory report on January 12 [51]. - Investment advice: Continue to pay attention to the state reserve and customs policies. The supply - demand situation does not support a significant increase in the May contract of soybean meal unless there is a major abnormal reduction in South American production [51]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Rio Tinto and Glencore are in preliminary discussions about a potential merger, which may create a diversified mining giant and dominate the global copper supply. Recent copper prices have soared due to supply shortages [53]. - Chile's national copper production in November decreased by 3%. The production of some major mines also changed. The macro - optimistic sentiment is pushing up copper prices, but the short - term fundamentals are relatively weak, which may limit the increase [54]. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, continue to recommend buying on dips. From an arbitrage perspective, it is advisable to wait and see [56]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products will be adjusted. It is expected that there will be a wave of rush - to - export in Q1 2026, but it is negative for demand in the whole year. The price of polysilicon may oscillate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton in the short term [57]. - Investment advice: During the rush - to - export period, the polysilicon price may remain stable if the alliance exists. After the rush - to - export, the price may face pressure again [58]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The national photovoltaic power generation utilization rate in November 2025 was 93.7%. The supply and demand of industrial silicon need to pay attention to the demand side. The supply and demand are in a tight balance in January - February, and there may be significant inventory accumulation after March [59]. - Investment advice: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is not significant. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The export tax rebate policy for battery products will be adjusted. It is expected to lead to a short - term rush - to - export, which is beneficial to lithium carbonate. The lithium salt price is expected to continue to rise. The inventory is accumulating in the off - season, but the demand is not weak [61]. - Investment advice: Hold the previous long positions, and be cautious when opening new long positions [62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Lunnon Metals has obtained the final approval for the Lady Herial gold - nickel open - pit mine. The futures market shows increased competition between industrial and speculative funds. The export tax rebate policy adjustment is beneficial to short - term nickel consumption. The overall price is likely to rise, and there may be a structural shortage of intermediates [63]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips. Continue to hold the positions of selling out - of - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options. Be cautious when chasing the high price, and closely monitor the quota release [64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On January 8, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $43.39/ton. The primary lead smelting operation was oscillating, and the secondary lead refinery's inventory reached a high level. The demand is weak, and the social inventory is expected to rise. There is a risk of short - term price increase due to low inventory [66]. - Investment advice: Wait for opportunities to short on rallies. It is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage [67]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On January 8, the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $42.57/ton. The Venezuela event may expand, and the zinc concentrate TC is expected to remain weak. The zinc demand is weak, and the social inventory is expected to rise. The zinc price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [68]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips in the short term. Wait and see for the month - spread arbitrage. The internal - external positive arbitrage has a good risk - return ratio, but it depends on the inflow of bonded - area inventory [69]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - In 2025, Shanghai's sales volume of trade - in goods exceeded 121.2 billion yuan. The market supervision department will accelerate the formulation of relevant national standards. The global tin inventory decreased last week, and the supply is uncertain. The demand is weak, and the high price suppresses consumption [70]. - Investment advice: It is expected that the tin price will continue to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the December customs data and the recovery of the consumption side [74]. 2.16 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On January 9, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 89.56 euros/ton, up 1.55% from the previous day. The EU carbon price continued to oscillate last week. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the short - term sentiment is still cautious [75]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will oscillate strongly in the short term [76]. 2.17 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased to 409 as of January 9. Oil prices rose in the second half of last week. The market is not overly worried about Venezuela's supply disruption, but concerns about Iran's supply have increased. Geopolitical risks may lead to a short - term increase in risk premiums, but the high export volume and potential inventory accumulation may suppress oil prices [77]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the risk premium of oil prices in the short term [78].

北向资金最新一个季度末的持股情况如期公布(季度结束后第5个陆股通交易日)。整体来看，截至2025 年末，北向资金持股市值较上一年末大幅增加，超半数行业持股市值较上一年末有所增加，超半数陆股 通成份股环比获加仓。 北向资金持股市值创2022年以来新高 尽管北向资金持股按季度进行公布，但其市场关注度依然居高不下。根据Wind数据，截至2025年末， 北向资金持股数量合计近1080亿股，持股数量连续4年超过1000亿股，持股市值(期末收盘价计算)合计 2.59万亿元，持股市值创2022年以来新高，较上一年末增幅接近20%。若纳入互联互通ETF的持仓规 模，2025年末北向资金持有中国资产的规模将更高。 从2025年数据来看，北向资金自2025年一季度起持股市值连续4个季度攀升，不过持股数量有所下降， 这与北向资金调仓、持股公司股价变动有一定关系。 宁德时代以超过2500亿元的持股市值遥遥领先于其它个股，持股市值较上一年末增加超过1000亿元，主 要受益于持股比例及股价的增加所致，该股的北向资金持股比例连续7个季度增加。作为全球锂电巨 头，2025年5月，宁德时代在港股上市，公司去年与多家知名企业签订战略合作协议，在 ...