Group 1 - China Communication Technology Co., Ltd. won a total of 11 important rail transit projects with a total bid amount of approximately 3.789 billion yuan, accounting for 11.67% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [1] - New Chai Co., Ltd. plans to use no more than 500 million yuan of idle funds to purchase low-risk financial products to improve fund efficiency [2] - Qingshan Paper Industry's controlling shareholder intends to restructure and inject assets into Fujian Provincial Industrial Holding Group [3] Group 2 - BWS hired Liu Xiaodan as Senior Vice President, effective immediately [4] - Huakang Clean won a bid for a purification project at the Tengzhou Medical and Health Center, with a bid price of 60.2394 million yuan [6] - Silver Dragon Co., Ltd. announced that several executives plan to reduce their holdings by a total of no more than 550,000 shares due to personal financial needs [8] Group 3 - Intercontinental Oil & Gas plans to invest 848 million USD in the South Basra Integrated Project in Iraq, holding a 67% stake [13] - Huatai Dain's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for sodium valproate oral solution, used for treating epilepsy [14] - Hainan Mining's 20,000-ton battery-grade lithium hydroxide project has achieved full-process connectivity and produced qualified products [29] Group 4 - Roman Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary won a significant overseas project in Saudi Arabia with a bid amount of approximately 200 million yuan [30] - Measurement Co., Ltd. completed a capital reduction for its subsidiary, optimizing resource allocation [31] - Guodian Nanzi plans to increase capital by 45 million yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiary to meet market expansion needs [32] Group 5 - Eighty Billion Space plans to repurchase shares with a total amount not less than 50 million yuan and not exceeding 100 million yuan [33] - Tianyin Electromechanical's director plans to reduce holdings of no more than 0.25% of the company's shares [34] - Hailier's subsidiary passed environmental protection acceptance for its agricultural chemical preparation project [35] Group 6 - Kelong Pharmaceutical's subsidiary will present innovative drug research results at the ASCO annual meeting [36] - Zhonghong Medical's subsidiary received medical device registration certificates for enteral nutrition pumps and injection pumps [37] - Luyou Pharmaceutical received a drug registration certificate for amlodipine besylate tablets, used for hypertension [39]

地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 100.15 0.05 -2.65 纽曼粉 749 -1 -17 800.9 96.15 -0.75 -2.50 -26.43 PB粉 760 -5 -13 805.3 98.70 -0.65 -2.65 -1.00 麦克粉 739 0 -15 807.3 94.30 -0.80 -2.85 0.80 金布巴 720 -4 -16 810.8 90.30 -0.80 -2.45 6.51 主流 混合粉 673 -3 -10 797.6 85.05 -0.60 -2.20 3.22 超特粉 632 -3 -10 842.0 82.00 -0.45 -1.85 -5.32 卡粉 850 -5 -15 791.3 109.75 -1.00 -3.65 -1.78 巴西 巴混 776 -5 -13 787.6 100.30 -0.65 -2.70 -0.26 主流 巴粗IOC6 733 -5 -12 804.0 巴粗SSFG 738 -5 -12 乌克兰精粉 813 -5 -17 909.1 61%印粉 700 -4 -16 卡拉拉精粉 818 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite has increased as the US Treasury yield first soared and then declined. Domestically, the central bank's interest - rate cuts and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates have further loosened monetary policy, which is conducive to boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and operation suggestions. For example, the stock index may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the bond market may remain high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to observe carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own characteristics and operation strategies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The deterioration of the US fiscal outlook initially led to concerns about US Treasury demand, causing a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Subsequently, the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax - cut bill by the US House of Representatives and its submission to the Senate for review led to a decline in Treasury yields from recent highs, boosting market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: In April, domestic domestic demand slowed down and was lower than expected, while exports far exceeded expectations, and the role of exports in driving the economy remained strong. The central bank cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates by 10BP, and commercial banks reduced deposit rates, further loosening monetary policy, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2][3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as non - metallic materials, batteries, and semiconductor materials, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. Given the current economic situation and loose monetary policy, it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: After the continuous decline of the US dollar, it rebounded, and the gold market rose and then fell on Thursday. Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating promoted safe - haven demand. The passage of Trump's large - scale tax and spending cut bill reduced policy uncertainty. The long - term global de - dollarization trend provides long - term support for gold. For silver, due to the weak manufacturing industry and supply - chain impacts, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [3]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets weakened on Thursday, with low trading volumes. Real - world demand continued to decline, and the apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons week - on - week. Although steel production increased, considering the high profitability of steel mills, short - term supply may remain high. The short - term steel market may be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly. With high steel - mill profitability, the probability of short - term high iron - water production is high. Although the global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons week - on - week, the arrival volume decreased by 289.6 tons. The port inventory decreased by 119.36 tons on Monday. Iron ore is still strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting on rallies can be continued in the medium term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly, while the futures prices rebounded significantly. The main reasons were the inclusion of manganese ore in high - critical minerals by the South African government and the market rumor of a port workers' strike. However, the impact of these two news remains at the expected level. The fundamentals of silicon manganese are still weak, and its price increase is not expected to be sustainable, and it may fluctuate in the bottom - interval later [6]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ may increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting in July, mainly from Saudi Arabia. Coupled with concerns about economic growth slowdown and weakening energy demand caused by the US - led trade war, the market is worried about oversupply, and the price will remain weakly volatile [7]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates weakly following crude oil. Current demand is average, and the basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly. With the increase in production after profit recovery and the stagnation of inventory reduction, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. PX - PX has declined slightly recently, and the short - term profit is still high, so the later supply will not decrease significantly. With the reduction of PTA maintenance and the increase in demand, PX will remain in a tight - balance situation, and the upstream profit will expand again. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, methanol, PP, LLDPE, and urea has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, PTA may be in a weakly - oscillating pattern; ethylene glycol is expected to remain high - level and weakly volatile; short - fiber will continue to oscillate; methanol prices are still under pressure; the fundamentals of PP are not optimistic; LLDPE price increase is limited; and urea prices are strongly volatile in the short - and medium - term and under pressure in the long - term [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The passage of a tax and spending bill by the US House of Representatives and the manufacturing and service PMI data in the euro area have certain impacts. The social inventory of copper has increased, and the processing fee of copper ore is at a historical low. As it is about to enter the off - season of demand, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs may boost demand. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for shorting can be sought in the medium term [11]. Aluminum - The global primary aluminum supply was in surplus in March and from January to March. China's primary aluminum imports increased in April. The market generally has a bearish view, but it is advisable to be cautious about shorting in the short term and wait for a better entry point [13]. Tin - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar and Congo is in progress, but the supply constraint still exists, and the processing fee of tin concentrate remains at a historical low. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream mainly conducts rigid - demand purchases. The short - term tin price will oscillate, supported by the tight supply of mines and low smelting start - up rates [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures closed higher. The export sales of US soybeans increased in the week ending May 15. The early - stage planting conditions in US soybean - producing areas are mild, and the drought - affected area has decreased [15]. Soybean Meal - The national dynamic full - sample oil - mill operating rate declined slightly. The basis trading volume of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The soybean meal futures price rebounded after testing the 2800 - 2850 range, and the support for the horizontal - range of M09 has been strengthened in the short term [15]. Palm Oil - US policies have caused greater fluctuations in the US soybean - oil market. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit per ton in May. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased from May 1 - 20, and the export also increased [15][16]. Live Pigs - After the May holiday, the terminal demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in selling white - striped pigs. The supply was stable, but as the consumption off - season becomes more prominent, the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the risk of accelerated slaughter by large - scale farms and the pressure of selling large - sized pigs in late May or early June [16]. Corn - The futures price of corn has declined significantly recently, and the spot price has also been affected. With the listing of new - season wheat, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The deep - processing profit has been in continuous losses, and the operating rate has remained stable. The purchase of wheat as a substitute for corn by downstream feed enterprises has increased [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, and terminal ore consumption is continuously declining. Although the current demand is still at a relatively high level this year, the traditional off - season of the steel market is coming, and high - level molten iron production cannot be sustained, so demand will continue to decline. On the supply side, while domestic port arrivals are falling and port inventories are being well reduced, overseas miners' shipments have increased significantly. Domestic mines are also actively producing, so the supply pressure is still large. In general, the iron ore market is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals are weakening. However, due to the high - level demand and the deep discount of futures prices, the downward resistance is large. It is expected that the operation logic of the iron ore market will switch between strong reality and weak expectations, and the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the decline in molten iron production [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 13,987.83, a week - on - week decrease of 178.26, a decrease of 273.17 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 867.49 compared with the same period [2] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,925.48, a week - on - week decrease of 35.68, a decrease of 147.55 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 413.45 compared with the same period [2] Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,271.30, a week - on - week decrease of 83.30, a decrease of 54.00 compared with last month, and a decrease of 575.80 compared with the same period [2] - Global 19 - port iron ore shipments are 3,347.80, a week - on - week increase of 318.80, an increase of 422.30 compared with last month, and an increase of 279.10 compared with the same period [2] Demand - 247 steel mills' daily average molten iron production is 243.60, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17, a decrease of 0.75 compared with last month, and an increase of 6.80 compared with the same period [2] - 45 - port daily average port clearance volume is 327.09, a week - on - week increase of 3.20, a decrease of 0.83 compared with last month, and an increase of 28.13 compared with the same period [2] - 247 steel mills' daily imported ore consumption is 301.87, a week - on - week decrease of 1.04, an increase of 0.48 compared with last month, and an increase of 12.42 compared with the same period [2] - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions is 90.23, a week - on - week decrease of 5.65, a decrease of 15.87 compared with last month, and an increase of 1.79 compared with the same period [2]

1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel industry is characterized by high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and a gradual recovery in demand expectations. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at low levels, with attention on whether the previous lows can provide support. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to experience short - term oscillations. Although the current high molten iron production has led to a slight reduction in inventory, the supply pressure is expected to increase from May to June due to the shipping volume rush of overseas mines. Meanwhile, the improvement of macro - economic expectations may bring about sentiment repair [4]. Coke Industry - The coke market is in a weak state. With the decline in molten iron production and the cautious attitude of the market towards the future, the downstream replenishment demand is difficult to increase significantly. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract on rallies and continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and shorting coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market remains weak. The supply is relatively abundant, while the demand may face pressure as the peak season for steel passes. It is advisable to short the coking coal 2509 contract on rallies and continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and shorting coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate. After previous production cuts, the supply pressure has been alleviated, but the overall inventory is still at a relatively high level. The demand lacks strong support, and attention should be paid to changes in exports [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese market maintains production cuts. The supply pressure is mainly concentrated in the northern region. The market is expected to continue to operate in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products remained stable, with only slight increases in some futures contracts. For example, the 05 contract of rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel products changed slightly, and the profit of most steel products decreased. For example, the profit of rebar in East China decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in South China decreased by 22 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production remained unchanged, the production of five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.1%. The production of rebar increased by 1.3%, and the inventory decreased by 5.2%. The production of hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6%, and the inventory decreased by 4.8% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 2.6%, while the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 8.1%, the apparent demand of rebar increased by 21.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 6.5% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract of most varieties decreased significantly. For example, the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 42.2% [4]. Supply and Demand - The global shipping volume of iron ore increased by 10.5%, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 3.5%. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4%, and the daily average ore - unloading volume at 45 ports increased by 2.8% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.8%, and the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of most coke products remained stable, with only slight increases in the 09 and 01 contracts. The coking profit increased by 85.7% [6]. Supply and Demand - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants increased by 0.3%, and the daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, the inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1%, the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.1%, and the port inventory decreased by 1.7% [6]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi coking coal remained stable, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 0.5%. The coking coal futures continued to decline, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened [6]. Supply and Demand - The raw coal production increased by 0.3%, the clean coal production increased by 0.4%, the daily average production of full - sample coking plants increased by 0.3%, and the daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [6]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory in Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.2%, the coking coal inventory in full - sample coking plants decreased by 3.5%, the coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills increased by 0.5%, and the port inventory increased by 2.8% [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 0.3%, and the prices of most spot varieties remained stable. The price of ferrosilicon in Tianjin decreased by 0.9% [7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of raw materials remained stable, and the production costs and profits of main production areas remained unchanged [7]. Supply and Demand - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 9.1%, the operating rate decreased by 4.0%, the demand remained stable, and the iron water production decreased by 0.4% [7]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8%, and the average available days of downstream decreased by 1.6% [7]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 0.2%, and the prices of most spot varieties decreased. The price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.4%, and the price in Guangxi decreased by 0.9% [7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of some manganese ores decreased slightly, the production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.2%, and the production profit decreased by 5.94% [7]. Supply and Demand - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 60.3%, the arrival volume increased by 23.8%, the ore - unloading volume decreased by 25.8%, the ferromanganese production decreased by 5.4%, the operating rate decreased by 10.5%, and the demand remained stable [7]. Inventory Changes - The manganese ore port inventory increased by 6.2%, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9%, and the average available days decreased by 7.0% [7].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: The steel industry shows a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. Despite potential seasonal and export - related demand weaknesses, with the reduction of tariffs in May, terminal orders have improved, and steel exports remain high. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels, with attention on support at previous lows. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: The iron ore market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Although the high iron - water production keeps the inventory slightly decreasing, the expected increase in overseas mine shipments from May to June will intensify supply - demand pressure. However, improved macro - expectations may repair market sentiment [4]. - **Coke Industry**: The coke market is bearish. With steel mills reducing coke prices, the fundamental situation is unfavorable. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract when the price is high and continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal Industry**: The coking coal market remains weak. Given the downward trend of coal prices and better fundamentals of finished products compared to coking coal, it is advisable to short the coking coal 2509 contract when the price is high and continue the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. - **Silicon Iron Industry**: The silicon iron price is expected to oscillate. After previous production cuts, the supply pressure has eased, and factory inventories are decreasing. However, overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. Demand is limited, and it is necessary to focus on subsequent export changes [7]. - **Silicon Manganese Industry**: The silicon manganese market maintains production cuts. Supply pressure is concentrated in certain regions, and the price is expected to oscillate [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices showed small increases. For example, the price of the rebar 05 contract rose by 6 yuan/ton to 3101 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs remained stable. The profit of hot - rolled coils in South China increased by 8 yuan/ton, while the profit of rebar in South China decreased by 22 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron - water production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, while the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons to 868.4 tons, a decline of 0.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons to 1430.7 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons to 913.8 tons, an increase of 8.1%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons to 260.3 tons, an increase of 21.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures showed small changes. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 59.9 yuan/ton to 82.2 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons to 3347.8 tons, an increase of 10.5%, while the weekly domestic arrival volume decreased by 83.3 tons to 2271.3 tons, a decline of 3.5% [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons, a decline of 0.4% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 110.5 tons to 14055.63 tons, a decline of 0.8% [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the coke 09 contract increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1418 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly iron - water production decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons, a decline of 0.4% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 11.3 tons to 983.2 tons, a decline of 1.1% [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the coking coal 09 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 842 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 108 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly raw coal production increased by 2.8 tons to 895.8 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of clean coal in Fenwei mines increased by 19.4 tons to 230.3 tons, an increase of 9.2% [6]. Silicon Iron Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon iron main contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 5620 yuan/ton. The price of silicon iron in Tianjin decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 5750 yuan/ton [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, with a production profit of - 118 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly silicon iron production decreased by 0.9 tons to 9.4 tons, a decline of 9.1% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly silicon iron demand remained unchanged at 2.0 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons to 74 tons, a decline of 11.8% [7]. Silicon Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 5792 yuan/ton. The price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 5580 yuan/ton [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 9.6 yuan/ton to 5768.5 yuan/ton, and the production profit decreased by 10.4 yuan/ton to - 188.5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly silicon manganese production decreased by 0.9 tons to 16.3 tons, a decline of 5.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The silicon manganese demand remained unchanged at 12.6 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 2.5 tons to 20.7 tons, an increase of 13.9% [7].

2025年05月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：夜盘大幅反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 3 | | 铜：避险情绪升温，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然承压 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势格局依旧 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单累库，关注市场情绪变动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 26 | | 原木：弱势 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The Sino - US trade negotiation results briefly boosted market confidence, and policy - side benefits have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. Steel output has risen, inventories have declined, and apparent demand has rebounded. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. Technically, the short - term rally last week was followed by a downward trend this week, and the medium - term downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation phase [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. Iron ore demand may be further suppressed if a production - restriction policy is introduced. The global supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventories are decreasing at a slower pace, and the high proportion of trade ore inventories exerts pressure on futures prices. Technically, the price may enter an oscillation phase after a short - term rebound [5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Conditions**: The Sino - US trade negotiation results briefly boosted confidence, and policy - side benefits fully materialized. The real estate market in core cities stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out, with new construction areas dropping significantly and completion and construction areas still showing large year - on - year declines [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, steel output increased, factory inventories decreased, social inventories continued to decline, total inventories dropped, and apparent demand rebounded. Steel mills believe the industry needs to cut production, but there is no incentive for voluntary production cuts [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term sharp rebound last week, prices faced downward pressure this week, and the medium - term downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation phase [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see. Wait patiently for the price to complete bottom - building and then go long at low prices [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices mostly declined compared to last week. For example, the closing price of the thread steel futures main contract was 3061 yuan/ton, down 2.11% from last week [3]. - **Production**: The output of national building material steel mills' thread steel was 226.53 million tons, up 1.34% from last week, while hot - rolled coil output was 311.98 million tons, down 2.62% [3]. - **Inventory**: Five major varieties of social inventories were 993.67 million tons, down 3.81% from last week. Thread social inventories were 434.88 million tons, down 6.55% [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The impact of the US tariff increase on steel exports has not yet emerged. Last week, the iron - water output of 247 steel mills exceeded 244.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: If a production - restriction policy is introduced, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventories are decreasing at a slower pace, and the high proportion of trade ore inventories exerts pressure on futures prices [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price has fallen to near the long - term trend line, and a short - term rebound may indicate the end of the medium - term downward trend and the entry into an oscillation phase [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 728.5 yuan/dry ton, up 0.48% from the previous day and down 1.15% from last week [5]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1648.9 million tons, up 2.94% from last week, and Brazilian shipments were 751.1 million tons, up 37.04% [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories totaled 14166.09 million tons, down 0.51% from last week, and port trade ore inventories were 9718.75 million tons, down 0.03% [5]. 3.3 Industry News As market sentiment faded, steel prices first rose and then fell. The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 50 yuan to 2930 yuan/ton. Steel mills' coke price reduction of 50 yuan was implemented. Iron ore spot prices rebounded. The average iron - water cost of Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills decreased by 4 yuan to 2148 yuan/ton, and the average steel billet cost decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 2898 yuan/ton. The average profit of billet - making steel mills decreased by 46 yuan to 32 yuan/ton, the lowest in two months [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Spot Market - Newman powder: latest price 750, daily change -6, weekly change -23, import profit -33.06 [1] - PB powder: latest price 765, daily change 1, weekly change -13, import profit -2.60 [1] - Mac fines: latest price 739, daily change -5, weekly change -19, import profit -6.95 [1] - Jinbuba fines: latest price 724, daily change 0, weekly change -15, import profit 2.79 [1] - Mainstream mixed fines: latest price 676, daily change 2, weekly change -8, import profit 0.14 [1] - Super special fines: latest price 635, daily change 3, weekly change -11, import profit -7.13 [1] - Carajás fines: latest price 855, daily change 1, weekly change -13, import profit -6.27 [1] - Brazilian blend: latest price 781, daily change 1, weekly change -8, import profit -1.89 [1] - Roy Hill fines: latest price 735, daily change 1, weekly change -13, import profit 7.34 [1] Iron Ore Futures Market - i2601 contract: latest price 693.0, daily change 4.5, weekly change -6.5, monthly spread 35.5 [1] - i2605 contract: latest price 671.0, daily change 3.5, weekly change -124.5, monthly spread 22.0 [1] - i2509 contract: latest price 728.5, daily change 3.5, weekly change -8.5, monthly spread -57.5 [1] - FE01 contract: latest price 93.78, daily change -0.04, weekly change -0.30 [1] - FE05 contract: latest price 100.11, daily change -0.09, weekly change 0.06 [1] - FE09 contract: latest price 96.54, daily change -0.01, weekly change -0.11 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rebound of iron ore prices was due to the "strong reality" not weakening after the "weak expectation" drove the prices down, and the improved expectation after the better - than - expected progress of China - US tariff negotiations led to the upward correction of the futures prices [3][7]. - After the price rebound, the limited upward space of high - level hot metal output makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly. In the short term, prices may fluctuate in a range, and after the inflection point of the "strong reality" appears, the futures valuation may move closer to the "weak expectation" pricing [4][16][27]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Impact of China - US Tariff Negotiations on the Original Rhythm - Since late February, the iron ore futures prices showed a trend of "decline - sideways oscillation - decline again". Macro - level positive news and policy disturbances could cause price drops, while high - level hot metal output and inventory depletion provided short - term support after the decline. The price generally followed the pattern of "weak expectation" driving the decline and "strong reality" providing support [7]. - In the past two years, the decline of iron ore prices was often preceded by expectations, followed by the fundamentals. This time, the price rebound was due to the unchanged "strong reality" and the improved expectation [7]. 3.2 Marginal Changes in Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: The second quarter is the traditional peak shipping season for overseas mines, and the shipping volume usually increases seasonally. The latest weekly shipping volume reached 3347.8 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase to a high level in the same period. Although affected by hurricanes in the first quarter, Australian mines did not plan to significantly cut their annual shipping targets. The second quarter can be used to observe the marginal increase in iron ore supply [8]. - **Demand Side**: The current hot metal output shows signs of peaking but is expected to remain above 240 tons in the next few weeks. To see the transmission of "declining terminal demand - shrinking steel mill profits - reducing blast furnace production and hot metal output" requires a cycle. The industry maintains a cautious attitude, and the market's view of "weak expectation" has not fundamentally reversed [15][16]. 3.3 Impact of Coke and Coal on Iron Ore - Coke and coal are in a weak position in the black - chain industry. Their continuous price decline since the beginning of the year has transferred some profit space to iron ore, which is one of the reasons why iron ore prices decline in a more oscillatory manner [26]. 3.4 Future Trends - After the easing of China - US trade tensions, the improved expectation led to the upward rebound of iron ore prices. However, due to the limited upward space of high - level hot metal output, the price is likely to fluctuate in the short term. After the inflection point of the "strong reality" appears, the futures valuation may move closer to the "weak expectation" pricing [27].