海关总署：美国为我第三大贸易伙伴 前5个月我与美国贸易总值下降8.1% 智通财经6月9日电，海关总署今天（9日）对外公布，前5个月，东盟为我第一大贸易伙伴，我与东盟贸 易总值为3.02万亿元，增长9.1%，占我外贸总值的16.8%。其中，对东盟出口1.9万亿元，增长13.5%； 自东盟进口1.12万亿元，增长2.3%。欧盟为我第二大贸易伙伴，我与欧盟贸易总值为2.3万亿元，增长 2.9%，占12.8%。其中，对欧盟出口1.57万亿元，增长7.7%；自欧盟进口7283.3亿元，下降6.1%。美国 为我第三大贸易伙伴，我与美国贸易总值为1.72万亿元，下降8.1%，占9.6%。其中，对美国出口1.27万 亿元，下降8.7%；自美国进口4475.1亿元，下降6.3%。 ...

Core Insights - Foreign-funded enterprises in China accounted for 29% of the country's total import and export value in the first five months of this year [1] - The import and export value of foreign-funded enterprises reached 5.21 trillion yuan, representing a growth of 2.3% [1] - In May, the import and export value of foreign-funded enterprises was 1.11 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 4%, accelerating by 2.2 percentage points compared to the first four months [1] Import and Export Performance - The overall import and export growth of China was boosted by foreign-funded enterprises, contributing 0.7 percentage points to the total growth [1] - The number of foreign-funded enterprises with import and export activities exceeded 73,000, marking the highest level for the same period in the past five years [1] - Monthly import and export values for foreign-funded enterprises have maintained growth for four consecutive months [1] Policy and Market Environment - China remains committed to expanding high-level opening-up, positioning itself as an ideal, safe, and proactive investment destination for foreign investors [1]

Core Insights - Shanghai's foreign trade import and export reached 1.4 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] - Exports amounted to 629.02 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Trade with emerging markets has been effective, with imports and exports recorded with over 200 countries and regions, and growth achieved with 166 trading partners [1] Group 1 - Trade with Belt and Road countries reached nearly 600 billion yuan, growing by 11.9% [1] - Trade connections with key regions such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe have strengthened, with import and export growth exceeding 20% [1] - Shanghai Customs has been promoting cross-border trade facilitation for eight consecutive years, aiming to create a safe, convenient, and efficient business environment at ports [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Customs launched the "Shanghai Customs 2025 Cross-Border Trade Facilitation Action Plan," consisting of 33 measures across five areas to boost enterprise confidence and enhance foreign trade quality [2] - The plan includes speeding up customs clearance for key products, expanding multimodal transport services, and enhancing digital technology applications [2] - A pilot program for facilitating the inspection of first-time imported consumer goods has been introduced, utilizing an innovative "whitelist + differentiated qualification assessment" model [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff uncertainties on China's exports, emphasizing the need to understand the core contradictions in the export transmission path and to closely monitor key variables through a high-frequency tracking framework [4][17]. Group 1: Tariff Uncertainty and Export Impact - The fluctuations in Trump's tariffs create significant estimation errors regarding their impact on China's overall exports, making it crucial to identify key variables and track their changes [4][17]. - The core elements affecting U.S. import demand under tariff pressures include U.S. tariff policies, the transmission of tariffs to import prices, and the impact on consumer purchasing power [17]. Group 2: High-Frequency Tracking Framework - A high-frequency tracking framework has been established, consisting of six categories and sixteen indicators to monitor global trade demand, Chinese export volume and price, direct trade flow between China and the U.S., potential transshipment trade, U.S. import demand, and effective tariff rates [18]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI are used to track global trade volume, indicating a downward trend in global cargo export volume growth [5][24]. - The RJ/CRB Index is employed to monitor global trade price growth, showing a recovery from -0.8% to 1.2% between April and May [6][25]. Group 3: Monitoring Chinese Exports - Container throughput at monitored ports is used to track China's export volume, which has shown a marginal decline from 7.3% to 6.7% year-on-year as of May 25 [7][29]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a leading indicator for China's export prices, indicating a potential weakening trend in export prices over the next three months [8][33]. - Import data from South Korea and Vietnam are utilized as synchronous indicators for China's overall export performance, with recent data suggesting a marginal weakening in exports [9][41]. Group 4: U.S. Import Demand and Tariff Rates - U.S. import demand is tracked through IHS Markit customs data, revealing a decline in import amounts and container volumes, reflecting the impact of new tariffs [13][68]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 6.3% in April to 8.1% in May, indicating a rising burden on imports [14][86]. - Predictions from the National Retail Federation suggest a significant drop in U.S. container imports, with expectations of a -13% year-on-year decline in May [78][79].

Core Points - Germany's export value in April 2025 decreased by 1.7% month-on-month, reaching approximately €131.1 billion [1] - The import value for Germany in April increased by 3.9% month-on-month, totaling around €116.5 billion [1] Export and Import Analysis - Exports to EU countries amounted to €72.9 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.9% month-on-month, while imports from the EU rose by 4.5% to €59.8 billion [1] - Exports to non-EU countries fell by 4.8% to €58.1 billion, with imports from these countries increasing by 3.4% to €56.7 billion [1] Country-Specific Insights - The United States remains Germany's most significant export market, but exports to the U.S. saw a substantial decline of 10.5% in April, dropping to €13 billion, the lowest since October 2024 [1] - Imports from the U.S. increased by 3.9% to €8.4 billion [1] - Imports from China continued to lead, decreasing by 4.1% to €13.9 billion [1] Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that U.S. trade policies are negatively impacting Germany's export economy [1] - Despite a slight increase in exports during the first quarter of the year, it is believed that this was due to companies preemptively completing transactions in anticipation of potential stricter tariffs from the Trump administration [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese government reported a 3% decline in export value for the first 20 days of May compared to the same period last year [1] - In contrast, export value for the first 20 days of April increased by 2.3%, with total exports for April showing a growth of 2% [1] - The average export growth over the year leading up to April was 6.2% [1]

Core Insights - The recent private enterprise symposium and the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law signify strong support and recognition for the role of the private economy in China's development, aiming to boost confidence and market risk appetite [1][3] - In Q1 2025, key indicators of the private economy showed significant recovery, with private enterprises demonstrating resilience and growth potential [2][5] Economic Indicators - In Q1 2025, the added value of private enterprises in large-scale industrial sectors grew by 7.3% year-on-year, surpassing the overall growth rate of all large-scale industrial enterprises [2] - Private investment saw a positive turnaround, with a 0.4% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, reversing the decline from the previous year; manufacturing and infrastructure investments grew by 9.7% and 9.3%, respectively [2] - Private enterprises' import and export volume increased by 5.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, accounting for 56.8% of the total import and export volume, indicating strong competitiveness in international markets [2] Entrepreneurial Confidence - The overall confidence index for entrepreneurs reached 70.62 in Q1 2025, reflecting a 4.28 increase from the first half of 2024, with optimism across various industry dimensions [3] - The development index for small and medium-sized enterprises was 89.5 in Q1 2025, marking the highest level since Q1 2022 [3][4] Market Activity - In Q1 2025, 1.979 million new private enterprises were registered, a 7.1% year-on-year increase, with the total number of registered private enterprises exceeding 57 million, representing 92.3% of all enterprises [4] - The proportion of fully operational enterprises reached 50.4%, an 11 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, indicating a recovery in operational activity [4] Innovation and New Dynamics - The establishment of new "four new" economy private enterprises reached 836,000 in Q1 2025, accounting for over 40% of new private enterprises, with significant growth in internet and modern information technology services [6] - From 2022 to 2024, A-share private enterprises' R&D investment exceeded 650 billion, with R&D intensity reaching 4.31% in 2024, significantly higher than the overall societal R&D intensity [6][7]

金十数据6月5日讯，加拿大统计局数据显示，由于美国实施的关税抽走了对加拿大商品的需求，加拿大 4月份的贸易逆差扩大至创纪录的71亿加元（52亿美元）。尽管加拿大对世界其他地区的出口有所增 长，但未能弥补对美国的出口下降。加拿大对美出口下降了15.7%，这是连续第三个月下降。自1月见 顶以来，加拿大对美国的出口已下降超过26%。加拿大统计局表示，4月份的出口总额暴跌10.8%，降至 604亿加元，这是近两年来的最低水平，也是连续第三个月下降，降幅为五年来的最大一次。除了对美 出口下降，较低的原油价格和走强的加元也是加拿大贸易逆差扩大的因素。 关税重创出口，加拿大4月贸易逆差扩大至历史新高 ...

Core Insights - In April, the U.S. trade deficit saw its largest recorded decline, primarily due to a historic drop in imports, indicating a halt in the "export rush" by some U.S. companies [1] Group 1: Trade Deficit Overview - The trade deficit for goods and services narrowed significantly by 55.5% in April, reaching $61.6 billion, marking a new low for 2023 and reversing the sharp expansion trend observed in the first quarter [1] - The median forecast for the trade deficit was $66 billion, while the previous month's deficit was $140.5 billion [1] Group 2: Import and Export Dynamics - In April, imports of goods and services fell by a record 16.3%, while exports increased by 3% [2] - The sharp decline in consumer goods imports amounted to $33 billion, largely driven by a significant drop in pharmaceutical imports [3] Group 3: Trade Deficit with Specific Countries - The trade deficit with Ireland, a major source of pharmaceuticals, narrowed significantly from $29.3 billion to $9.5 billion after seasonal adjustments [3] - The trade deficit with China decreased to $19.7 billion, the lowest level since March 2020 [3] - Deficits with Canada and Mexico also saw reductions, although Canada experienced a record expansion in its trade deficit due to a significant drop in exports [4] Group 4: Economic Implications - After adjusting for inflation, the total U.S. goods trade deficit in April narrowed to $85.6 billion, the lowest level since the end of 2023 [6] - Analysts suggest that the sharp reduction in the trade deficit in April indicates that trade may contribute significantly to U.S. GDP in the second quarter, contrasting with its role in the 0.2% annualized decline in GDP in the first quarter [6]

据媒体6月5日报道，越南工贸部周四确认，已在美方设定的截止日期前，向华盛顿提交了回应贸易要求 的文件，展现贸易协商的"决心和诚意"。而此举关乎越南能否避免美国高达46%的"对等关税"重击。 此前央视新闻援引媒体报道称，距离对等关税恢复期限仅剩五周，特朗普政府发出紧急信函要求各国在 本周三前提交贸易谈判的最佳方案。美国政府正在向谈判伙伴施压，要求各国在关键领域提供最佳方 案，包括购买美国工农业产品的关税和配额方案。4月9日，特朗普暂停了对大多数美国贸易伙伴的对等 关税，暂停期限为90天，将高额关税的生效期推迟到7月9日。 消息公布后，越南VN30股指小幅下跌0.2%，出口龙头股Vingroup跌超1%。 当46%的关税利剑悬在头顶时，越南选择了迅速妥协。 该国目前面临46%的"对等关税"威胁，一旦生效将严重冲击其以对美出口为支柱的增长模式——美国正 是越南的最大出口市场。 越南还曾对美国作出过"零关税"承诺。据央视网此前报道，4月4日，越南领导人同特朗普通电话，强调 愿意对美商品实行"零关税"。 风险提示及免责条款 越南率先"妥协"，越美双方同意加快谈判进程 报道称，越南工贸部在声明中表示已提交回应美国贸易要求 ...